1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large volume list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price in the first half of October rose slightly and then remained stable, with the first half of the month at a low price of 7503 yuan / ton; the mid month price (October 16) was 7524 yuan / ton, with a half month increase of 0.28%; on October 8 and 9, the half month high price was 7530 yuan / ton, and the half month amplitude was only 0.36%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, propylene prices have remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly. In the second week of October, they remained stable. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly, and most enterprises continued to maintain stability. The market transaction is still between 7480 and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7500 yuan / ton. Recently, part of the propylene plant maintenance, the overall supply is still a little tight.

On October 15, crude oil prices fell slightly, which had a limited impact on propylene market.

In the first half of the month, the spot price of PP stabilized after rising, with a half month increase of 1.66%, which may have some positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose sharply in the first half of the month, up 9.66% in the first half of the month, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market rose slightly in the first half of the month, with a half month increase of 0.89%, which had little impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, the price of epichlorohydrin fell, and the half month decline was 1.18%, and the half month amplitude was 3.53%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, the domestic price of n-butanol rose slightly, with a half month increase of 3.16%, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, octanol market rebounded and rose, with a half month increase of 1.35% and a half month amplitude of 2.26%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

In the first half of the month, the isopropanol market rose significantly and remained stable, with a half month increase of 7.14% and a half month amplitude of 7.56%.

In the first half of the month, the price of phenol in East China remained stable after a continuous rise, with a half month increase of 7.37%.

In the first half of the month, the price of acetone in East China remained stable after rising continuously, with a half month increase of 11.61%, which also had a certain effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: on the whole, the current propylene manufacturers have less stocks, the crude oil price has dropped slightly, and the supply is slightly tight. At present, there are more plant overhauls, and the downstream companies are mainly on a small scale, but most of them are just needed purchases. The current propylene price has been at the recent high level for a long time and has been digested. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will remain stable in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, after a sharp rise of 18.35% in September, the price of dioxin has dropped. After the national day double festival, the market of hydrogen peroxide has taken off one after another. After the middle of October, hydrogen peroxide took off again, and the price rose again on the basis of 18% increase in September. As of October 16, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1170 yuan / ton, which was 26.26% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to September in 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide in the first nine months is still falling more or less, with a larger drop in February and April, both exceeding 10%, and a relatively small decline in March, may and August. Prices rose mainly in January, June and September, with the largest increase of more than 30% in June. After June, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline by nearly 9% in July. The decline slowed down in August, with the price falling by about 2%. Awesome, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in September rose to over 15%. After the national day, hydrogen peroxide once again ushered in rising sentiment, silver can be expected.

On October 16, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 184.41, which was 10.88 points higher than yesterday, 1.88 points lower than 187.94 points (October 29, 2019), and 105.24% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

In the first ten days of September, the price of pure benzene rose and the cost was good. Caprolactam supply decreased, procurement increased and prices began to rise. In late September, some caprolactam enterprises resumed production and increased supply. As supply exceeds demand, inventory pressure increases. Prices began to fall. After the national day, the supply is tight, caprolactam staged a rise again

On October 16, the specific price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 178.23, which was 11.66 points higher than yesterday, 27.55% lower than 246.00 points (October 21, 2019), and 65.73% higher than 107.54 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to the present)

After the end of the double holiday, the overall stability of the base paper market, the paper mill inventory intention is obvious. Due to the fact that most of the holiday price of waste yellow board paper is in a stable state, the preferential profit concession of paper mills has been cancelled, and the market may be in a state of narrow pull-up. With the resumption of production of paper mills after the holiday, the need to replenish inventory exists. In addition, the national e-commerce has officially entered the double-11 large-scale stock preparation state, which may usher in a new round of price rising power. To a certain extent, it has increased the confidence of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business agency, believes that: hydrogen peroxide gold nine has already appeared, and silver ten has been staged in succession. Hydrogen peroxide is still expected to continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. The average price of ethylene on the 8th day was 757.75 US dollars / ton, and that on the 15th day was 773.00 US dollars / ton, up 2.01%. The current price is up 5.17% month on month, and the current price is down 11.91% year on year.

Recently, ethylene is on the rise as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 14th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 850-860 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed at 825-835 US dollars / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 14th, the European ethylene market prices were FD, northwest Europe closed at 703-716 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 690-701 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to US $479-491/t as of the 14th. The ethylene market in Europe and the United States rose slightly in the first and middle of October. Overall, the demand of the whole ethylene market was fair, and the market tended to be upward.

International: on October 14, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.04/barrel, up $0.84. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.32/barrel, up $0.87. More than 90% of crude oil production capacity has been stagnated due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico; Norwegian oil workers have gone on strike; Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of Arab light crude oil; and the EIA report at the beginning of the month showed that crude oil stocks fell by 1.98 million barrels last week. Good stimulation of international oil prices, ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to rise.

Recently, styrene in East China continued to rise sharply. In terms of cost, crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene and ethylene rose slowly along with the trend, and the overall cost support of styrene was strong. In terms of inventory, the social stock of styrene is still declining, and the supply is tight. Downstream start-up continued to run on the high side, strong rigid demand, some downstream prices rose sharply, driving up the price of styrene. In the aspect of styrene futures, the sharp rise and fall of styrene in the night trading had a negative impact on the opening market of styrene, and the traders on the floor were cautious in pursuing the rise, but they still had strong bullish psychology in the later period. On the 15th, the East China styrene quotation was raised to around 6000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that there is room for price increase in the mainstream.

In terms of crude oil, the implementation rate of OPEC’s production reduction is commendable, driven by the favorable stock market, and the implementation rate of OPEC production reduction is still implemented to lock in the rise of oil price. Driven by cost support, so business agency data analysts expect that ethylene external price will rise next.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the domestic lithium hydroxide Market has not changed much, and the price has been stable. As of October 15, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with October 1, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle. Downstream demand increased slightly, but inventory pressure remained, and the market of lithium hydroxide ran smoothly.

According to customs statistics, in August 2020, China’s import volume of lithium hydroxide was 25.56 tons, the import amount of that month was about 180000 US dollars, and the average import price of that month was 7210.05 dollars / ton; in August 2020, China’s export volume of lithium hydroxide was 3803.1 tons, the export amount of that month was about 33.08 million dollars, and the average export price of that month was 8698.08 dollars / ton.

The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on October 14 was 39500 yuan / ton, which was 1.54% higher than that on September 14 (38900 yuan / ton). On October 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which was 0.68% higher than that on September 14 (43900 yuan / ton). On the 14th, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 38000-42000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 42000-46000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market is temporarily stable in the near future, the cost side has a certain support, and the downstream demand is fair, but the inventory pressure is still under. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will run smoothly in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15650 yuan / ton last Thursday and 15875 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price rose by 1.44% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward. The spot sales in the market are basically normal. The price in Yunnan is rising rapidly. The price in Sichuan has also increased. The price in Guizhou is relatively stable. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Province is about 16000 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan Province is about 15800 yuan / ton; in Guizhou Province, it is about 15700 yuan / ton. In November, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan were increased, and the production costs of yellow phosphorus enterprises increased. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises have successively raised their quotations.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, on October 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton or 2.65% compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 6.67 yuan / ton, or 1.76%. This week, most of China’s phosphate ore refineries raised the ex factory price of phosphate rock, mainly in Guizhou and Hebei, with an overall increase of 20 yuan / ton in Guizhou. At present, the quoted price of 30% grade phosphate ore is 300-350 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is around 290-330 yuan / ton; the overall increase range of Hebei Province is 10 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation reference of 30% grade phosphate ore is 450-550 yuan / ton. At present, after the high-end quotation of phosphate ore market, the trading is fair, and the procurement is mainly required.

In terms of coke, up to now, the price of coke is mainly stable. At present, the main production areas start higher, the inventory in the factory is relatively small, and the downstream replenishment demand is high, and most of them are on demand. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2180 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. The mainstream price of Liupanshui coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2100 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of demand, the sales of phosphoric acid are normal in various parts of the market this week, and the price has not changed significantly. Phosphate Market Spot tight, prices rose slightly. There are some favorable factors for the demand of yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Chemical branch of the business club yellow phosphorus analysts believe that the price of yellow phosphorus this week. Next month, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased, the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase, and the price of raw phosphorus ore will be increased. It has formed a good support for the yellow phosphorus enterprises. Forecast: the price of yellow phosphorus will increase slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 15, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 37000.00 yuan / ton. The market supply and demand were balanced, and the rise and fall were in a dilemma. The price of dynamic lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price remained stable. The market was mainly stable.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power is 33000-37000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the demand is general, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is dull. At present, the price range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, with an average price of about 28750 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of power type lithium iron phosphate enterprises is 37000 yuan / ton of Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., and Foshan City German side Nano Technology Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton, and beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton.

The overall operation of upstream lithium carbonate is stable. At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 33500-37000 yuan / ton, with a slight increase. The mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 39500-40500 yuan / ton, and the price remains stable.

The chemical index on October 15 was 757 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 25.49% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 26.59% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: lithium iron phosphate market prices remain stable in the short term, just need to purchase. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of October 15, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was reported at 15100 yuan / ton, up 2.26% compared with October 1, and 16.27% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon POY was 12740 yuan / ton, 1.59% higher than that on October 1, and 18.75% lower than that on October 1; the price of nylon FDY was 15850 yuan / ton, 1.60% higher than that on October 1 and 19.54% lower than that on October 1.

In the early ten days of October, the international crude oil price rose sharply and fell slightly. As of October 14, WTI crude oil price was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 5.99% from the beginning of October. International oil prices rebounded sharply, while cyclohexanone rose. Shandong cyclohexanone market offer 5750-5850 yuan / ton, East China cyclohexanone offer price 6000-6100 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere is light. Sinopec’s settlement price of caprolactam in September 2020 is 9700 yuan / T. The supply of caprolactam increased in September. Due to the oversupply, the inventory pressure increased and the overall price was weak. The downstream transaction atmosphere is warming, polyester staple fiber two consecutive trading limits boost market confidence, short-term caprolactam is expected to rise. As of October 15, PA6 rose by 4.79% in October.

Recently, many foreign textile export enterprises can not guarantee delivery due to the epidemic situation, and many orders are transferred to China for production, and nylon manufacturers are booming. Textile market turn, nylon filament transaction hot. Some enterprises said that they couldn’t help themselves and the market was turning rapidly. The old customers may have difficulties in delivery and are unable to receive orders from new customers. The prices have risen and risen again. The contracts are subject to the quotation of the same day. It seems that the industry has really entered the “Silver decade” season in the short term. However, the impact of the transfer of orders to China is limited. After all, the prospect of trade environment under the epidemic situation is unknown. Therefore, some enterprises have not made major adjustments and are in a wait-and-see situation.

Business agency analysts believe that in the half of the “silver 10″ quarter, nylon filament in the raw material boost, as well as orders to warm up, the end of September’s decline. However, from the perspective of the overall price adjustment strategy, the price increase range is 200-500 yuan / ton, and the pace is still relatively conservative. Although the enterprise has stated that it is imperative to increase the price, there is no lack of the flavor of guaranteed price promotion, which is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Trade name: fuel oil 180CST

Latest price (October 14, 2020): 3587.50 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on October 14, the price of fuel oil was 3587.50 yuan / ton, and the market was weak and stable. On the one hand, cost is mainly negative. The international crude oil price fluctuates in a narrow range around $40 / barrel, which weakens the support for fuel oil. It is understood that WTI crude oil closed at $40.18/barrel on November 13. On the other hand, the demand is still low in the short term, and the epidemic situation of Xinguan in foreign countries is becoming more and more serious. Fuel inventory has increased, and supply side pressure is high. It is understood that, as of October 7, Singapore’s residual fuel oil inventory, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 190000 barrels to 24.237 million barrels, light distillate stocks including naphtha, gasoline and reformate oil increased by 215000 barrels to 13.781 million barrels, and medium distillate stocks decreased by 433000 barrels to 14.835 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: the fuel market is expected to continue the weak atmosphere in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 14, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%. Compared with 9 and 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 1533 yuan / ton, or 19.66%.

After the festival, the raw materials continued to be high, propylene glycol pressure was adjusted narrowly, and the overall small range was upward

After the festival, the domestic propylene glycol market has been adjusted in a narrow range with both high and low adjustments, and the overall upward trend is the majority. This trend mainly comes from two aspects. On the one hand, due to the cost pressure given by the continuous rise of raw material propylene oxide, propylene glycol market is difficult to get down, and the price is passively pushed up. The offer of many factories is still high or pressure is up, with an increase range of 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, the high-end transaction price of propylene glycol refers to 9800 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, after the festival, the propylene glycol plant started normally, and the inventory was abundant. Downstream users only kept purchasing on a just need basis. They were strongly resistant to high prices. Under the deadlock between supply and demand, some factories and dealers went down slightly, with a downward range of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the low-end transaction price of propylene glycol refers to 9000 yuan / ton.

As of October 14, the ex factory transaction price of domestic propylene glycol was 9333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.82%. Compared with 9 and 1, the average price of propylene glycol increased by 1533 yuan / ton, or 19.66%.

The production capacity and operation of propylene glycol in some domestic enterprises are attached (data for reference only)

Factory’s production capacity (10000 / T) process remarks

Normal operation of Shida Shenghua 12.5 transesterification process unit

Normal operation of Haike Xinyuan 6 transesterification process unit

Normal operation of 5.5 transesterification process unit of wells chemical

Normal operation of Depp chemical 4.8 transesterification process unit

Internationally, China’s crude oil imports continued to grow, coupled with the continued decline of the US dollar, international oil prices rebounded. On Tuesday (October 13), WTI November 2020 futures rose $0.77 at $40.20 a barrel, while Brent’s December 2020 futures rose $0.73 to $42.45 a barrel. The main contract of China’s SC crude oil futures fell 3.3 yuan / barrel to 272.2 yuan / barrel in 2012.

It is difficult to ignore short-term weak operation due to insufficient demand

At present, the cost of propylene glycol is obviously inverted, and the demand is weak. In addition, the export is affected by the exchange rate, freight and domestic price. The foreign trade sales are average and the performance is flat. The overall sales pressure of the market is not reduced. Therefore, it is expected that the price of propylene glycol will be weak and narrow in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%, compared with October 1; compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 6.67 yuan / ton, or 1.76%.

Domestic phosphate rock market rose after double festival

In October, after the double festival, domestic phosphate ore started to resume gradually, and the trading was stable. It was heard that some mining enterprises might raise their quotation, and the new orders were sold at sporadic high prices, and the market was mainly on the wait-and-see manner. Up to the 14th, most of the domestic mines raised the ex factory price of phosphate rock, mainly in Guizhou and Hebei. The overall increase in Guizhou was 20 yuan / ton, and the reference for 30% grade phosphate ore was 300-350 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was around 290-330 yuan / ton. The overall increase in Hebei Province was 10 yuan / ton, and the reference of 30% grade phosphate ore factory quotation was 4 50-550 yuan / ton. At present, after the high-end quotation of phosphate ore market, the trading is fair, and the procurement is mainly required.

On the downstream side, the overall price of yellow phosphorus market rose slightly after the festival. Most of the new orders in the market were small orders, and some prices increased slightly. At present, the reference price of Yunnan Net phosphorus factory transaction was around 15300-15500 yuan / T, and a small number of high price orders were referred to 15600 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is mainly stable for the time being, and the recent market demand is not obvious.

Continue to be weak in action and maintain stability in the short term

In the short term, there is limited space for the phosphate ore market to continue to rise. On the one hand, the current mine operation has not been fully recovered, and the limited supply has given support to the enterprise’s price rise. After the full recovery of the future market operation, the phosphate rock price continues to go up, with insufficient power and no strong support from the market. Therefore, the short-term market upward range is limited and stability is mainly maintained.