According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 22, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6633 yuan / ton. Compared with October 15, the average price of domestic n-butanol was increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.53%; compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 300 yuan / ton, or 4.74%.

N-butanol increased slightly and then stabilized

This week, n-butanol market was high and stable, and the transaction center gathered again. At the beginning of the week, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in some factories in Shandong Province continued to rise by 100 yuan / ton. Then the overall market situation entered a high stable operation channel. At present, the factories were in a tight spot, and the downstream just needed to replenish. Due to the shady decline of downstream butyl propyl ester products and the sharp decline of raw material propylene price, n-butanol orders decreased, and the business confidence was frustrated, and the shipment was more active The factory has no spot sales pressure, high price to maintain stable operation. As of October 22, the ex factory price of n-butanol from Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 6600 yuan / ton, which was stable within the week. Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation was 6600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton during the week, while that of Wanhua chemical in North China was 6700 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton during the week.

Upstream, from late October, the propylene market price in Shandong Province declined. According to the price chart of business associations, prices of some enterprises have fallen slightly since 1015 and 16, and most of them have remained stable. On the 17th and 18th, the price of propylene has fallen in a wide range, and it has dropped by about 200 yuan / ton on the 19th. On the 20th and 21st, individual declines have been made, most of them have not moved. The market transaction is between 7100 yuan / ton and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7300 yuan / ton. Now the pressure of shipment is slightly increased compared with the previous period.

Internationally, on October 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.03/barrel, down $1.67 or 4%. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 41.73 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.43 U.S. dollars. Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, mainly due to the negative US inventory data, the surge in the number of new cases of global epidemic, the slowing down of fuel demand and the expected rise in fuel demand.

Inventory low order to reduce n-butanol, the market will be more finishing operation

At present, affected by the downturn in the upstream and downstream, the supply and marketing atmosphere of n-butanol is also weak. There are not many new orders in the downstream, so the confidence of the industry has decreased, and the shipment is positive. At present, the inventory is low, and the offer is stable. It is expected that n-butanol will continue to be insufficient in the short term, and most of them will stabilize the sorting and transportation.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 22nd, the spot copper price was 52380 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from the previous day, 6.83% higher than the beginning of the year, and 11% higher than the same period last year. LME copper’s 3-month contract opened at a low level and then fluctuated, closing at US $6972.5, down 0.34%, while Shanghai copper’s main force retreated 52150 yuan after opening, and then maintained a low and narrow range of shock operation, closing at 52280 yuan, up 0.25%.

The Candelaria copper mine in Chile has been suspended since Tuesday. On Monday, Codelco workers took to the streets, refusing to announce layoffs during the outbreak. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that China may buy copper reserves. According to the report, reserves of copper and other commodities may be approved at a meeting of Chinese leaders next week. Citigroup analyst Max Leighton said potential catalysts for increasing reserves include deteriorating Sino US relations and the new crown crisis, highlighting the need to ensure that Chinese stocks can withstand supply disruptions. Over the next five years, China’s state-owned buyers are likely to gradually buy 700000 tons of copper, bringing inventories to 90 days of net imports, Leighton said. In the first nine months of 2020, China’s imports of unwrought copper and finished products reached 4.99 million tons, up 41% year-on-year, exceeding the annual import volume in 2019. Some of the copper comes from stock on the exchange. In the short term, the market follows the macro sentiment triggered by the progress of the US stimulus plan, and the space under the copper price is limited under the condition of abundant global liquidity.

In view of the above situation, copper strike, copper reserves are expected, but macro uncertainty and lack of bright spots in demand, short-term copper prices or strong shocks.

According to the business monitoring data, hydrogen peroxide Kim Gu after the market is still awesome, double festival later, mid October began, hydrogen peroxide again soared, the price rose 18% in September, continued to rise, as of October 22nd, the hydrogen peroxide market average price of 1420 yuan / ton, the price rose more than 53% in early September, compared with the beginning of October price rise of over 32%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to September 2020, it can be seen that the monthly rise and fall months of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 are basically the same, with the maximum increase of 39.93%. In August and September, the performance is relatively flat, with the main decline. In October, the same price rose by more than 25%.

In the first nine months of 2020, hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 32% in June, while other months showed relatively low performance. In the second half of the year, hydrogen peroxide fell for two months, and the market of hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 15% at the end of September. After the national day, hydrogen peroxide again ushered in the rise, and continued to rise, has exceeded the first half of the largest increase of 32.3%, there is still room for further growth.

On October 22, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 214.56, which was 12.8 points higher than yesterday, a record high in the cycle, and 138.80% higher than the lowest point of 89.85 on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

In the first ten days of September, the price of pure benzene rose and the cost was good. The supply of caprolactam decreased and the price kept rising. In late September, some caprolactam enterprises resumed production and increased supply. As supply exceeds demand, inventory pressure increases. Prices began to fall. After the national day, the supply is tight, caprolactam is also rising. The awesome price of hydrogen peroxide will be welcomed by some manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply of hydrogen peroxide will continue to rise.

The commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper on October 22 was 213.12, which was 14.02 points higher than yesterday, 13.37% lower than 246.00 points (October 21, 2019), and 98.18% higher than 107.54 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to the present)

After the end of the double festival holiday, the base paper market was stable, mainly due to the stable price of raw material waste yellow board paper during the holiday, and the preferential profit concession of paper mills was gradually cancelled. With the resumption of production of paper mills after the holiday, the need to replenish inventory exists. The large-scale stock market of double 11 has been started, and the enthusiasm of purchasing hydrogen peroxide has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been supported again.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business club, believes that: the price of terminal caprolactam has risen sharply, the paper industry has been driven by the preparation of goods on November 11, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have started parking for maintenance, and there are many profitable factors. The price of hydrogen peroxide is still expected to rise in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market has maintained an upward trend in the past 10 days. As of October 22, the average price of raw silk market was 304500 yuan / ton, up 5.18% compared with the 12th, and decreased by 25.73% year-on-year. The average price of dried cocoon market was 91250 yuan / ton, up 1.96% compared with December 12, and decreased by 33.27% year on year. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 90500 yuan / ton and that of raw silk is 319000 yuan / ton in Guangxi. Mainly benefited from the “double 11″ stock, extremely cold weather expectations and other good demand boost, boosting the market.

The fourth batch of autumn cocoons in Yizhou, Guangxi continued to be listed. According to some local cocoon stations, although the quality of fresh cocoons on the market was slightly poor due to the recent rainy weather, the overall purchase price still maintained a small rise. It is understood that the current purchase price in Yizhou is about 44 yuan / kg, while that in Xincheng is about 41-42 yuan / kg. The autumn cocoons in Teyong Town, Jiangsu Province, are coming to the end of the market. It is learned from some local cocoon stations that the quality and quantity of cocoons have declined compared with the previous period due to the weather conditions. Cocoon stations purchase according to the quality, and the purchase price is maintained at about 33-34 yuan / kg.

In October, the “silver 10″ is particularly busy. In terms of foreign orders, Christmas and Thanksgiving are coming, and orders from Europe and the United States in some clusters begin to increase; in terms of domestic orders, the probability of cold winter this year is relatively large. In addition, with the approaching of “double 11″ and “double 12″, enterprises begin to prepare goods, and domestic sales orders increase significantly, and production improves. According to China Light and Textile City, orders for knitted fabrics in autumn and winter have increased sharply as the temperature drops. Among them, the demand for woven fabrics such as cold proof leisure surface materials and home textile fabrics will continue to increase. There are also some imitation silk scarf fabrics which will enter the normal production. Knitting and sweater fleece fabrics are also the “sweet cakes” in the current market.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, in preparation for the “double 11″ and the increase in fabric demand in autumn and winter, the transfer of orders in India, the expectation of extremely cold weather, and the increase of orders in spring and summer of 2021, the overall textile market has opened a round of price rising tide and rush wave. Affected by this, the market of cocoon and silk is on the rise. However, it is worth noting that the current downstream demand has not fully recovered, the market demand has not really recovered, the speed of cocoon silk delivery is average, and the future market trend is still unclear, lacking the basis for forming a long-term upward trend.

Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic ABS market continued its strong trend in mid October, and most of the spot prices in the market rose a lot. As of October 20, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 17250.00 yuan / ton, which was 15.38% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, in mid October, the domestic styrene market was positive. The cost of crude oil rebounded slightly, pure benzene and ethylene rose, and the overall cost support of styrene was acceptable. In terms of inventory, the main port of Jiangsu Province has received more styrene ships recently, but less styrene has arrived in the later period. Styrene port inventory appeared to a new low since the Spring Festival, and there are expectations of continued decline, tight supply. Combined with the continuous rise of styrene futures, styrene spot market generally rose. However, in the early stage, the long-term loss margin of styrene was hovering, the risk of capital pull-up was small, and the resistance to spot price rising became smaller. Overall, styrene still has room to rise in the short term.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, recent domestic market trend consolidation. Cost side of the market is general, acrylonitrile support weakened. At present, the spot supply of acrylonitrile tends to be stable and the market news is calm. The downstream demand is lack of further positive promotion, and the market is mainly organized and operated after the festival. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to consolidate in the near future.

The domestic market of butadiene continued a strong trend in mid October, and the spot price of butadiene last week had a significant pull. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of the end of last week (10.16), the price of butadiene delivered sporadically in Shandong Province was about 7200 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangyin in East China was about 7300-7400 yuan / ton. At the same time, the external price continues to rise, which is beneficial to the domestic butadiene. There is still room for domestic manufacturers to increase the supply price, which drives the traders’ offer higher, and it is difficult to find the source of low-cost goods in the market.

After the festival, the heat of domestic ABS market continued, and the spot price increased. The shortage of domestic ABS spot supply has not improved, and the enthusiasm of replenishment is good after resumption of work. At that time, the consumption of ABS in household appliances and other industries was still high. The far upstream crude oil has been turbulent due to the complicated geopolitical influence recently. The recent talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia have preliminarily reached a commitment to fulfill the production reduction agreement, and the crude oil market may stabilize in the future. The lower reaches are in conflict with high price goods, and there is some resistance in the upward direction. Merchants at present state of mind temporarily stable, profit margin delivery.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in mid October, the ABS market has risen, and the prices of individual brands have increased greatly. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is OK, cost side of ABS support. At present, ABS spot supply is still tight, downstream consumption has a peak season. At present, the situation of high price goods trading is cooling down, and the supply of low-cost goods is hard to find. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be high in the near future.

1、 Price trend

As of October 21, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 13833.33 yuan / ton, down 6.74% from the beginning of the month, 6.74% month on month, and 0.72% lower than the same period last year, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, as of October 21, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 15500 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from the beginning of the month, 0.43% month on month, and 34.97% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In October, the market of refrigerants is still poor, the demand continues to be weak, and the market is hard to find. The refrigerant industry chain is on the decline as a whole. The prices of various types of refrigerants continue to stay low. The manufacturers are under pressure to ship. The sales pressure is increasing. The raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable. The support force is general. The export volume of refrigerant is expected to decline. The output of downstream air conditioning is low, and the demand is scarce. The after-sales market is in off- Continue to reduce the price of goods to seek good. On the whole, the refrigerant market is hard to find good factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity begins to move down.

R22, October R22 market lower. Since the double festival, the price of R22 has generally fallen by 1000-2000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction has yielded more profits, and the manufacturers have reduced the load operation. Juhua company’s annual production capacity of 110000 tons is about 70% of the plant, and Shandong Dongyue chemical’s R22 annual production capacity of 220000 tons is about 80% of the start-up, which reduces the pressure of shipment. In October, the support of raw materials weakened and the support of demand side collapsed. Air conditioning enterprises started operation at a low level, and the demand for R22 was weak. At the same time, the export volume of R22 was lower than that of the same period last year. Under domestic and external troubles, R22 prices were easy to fall but difficult to rise. At present, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in R22 market are about 12500-16500 yuan / ton, but the actual transaction price is low.

R134a, October R134a market weak stable operation. The price of raw materials fell, the supporting force began to weaken, but the demand side was not followed up enough, the car market was poor, and it was difficult to boost the market. The on-site supply of goods was sufficient, and the manufacturers started on the high side. Juhua company’s R134a annual production capacity of 60000 tons was about 80%, and Shandong Dongyue chemical’s R134a annual production capacity of 15000 tons was about 60% The contradiction between demand and R134a is not optimistic. At present, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in R134a market are around 15000-18000 yuan / ton, and the prices are stagnant in the short term.

Upstream hydrofluoric acid: on October 21, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / T. the factory price of domestic manufacturers remained stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of goods on site was normal. Affected by the stable price of fluorite, however, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good, and the on-site purchase was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will remain low in the future.

At present, less than 60% of the domestic trichloromethane production enterprises are operating, and the overall inventory in the industry is low. In addition, the price of raw materials is still high, and the supply side support is good. However, the downstream refrigerant market has entered the off-season, the market starts on a low level, and the demand side supports chloroform insufficiently. The game between supply and demand is strong. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 1850 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the current demand continues to be weak, the market is hard to find good, the overall downward trend of the refrigerant industry chain, manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is increasing, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity begins to move down. It is expected that R22 and R134a will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 21st, and the current price is 122583.33 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.84% compared with the previous trading day, 7.78% higher than that of the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.58%. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 120570 yuan. After the opening, the price was strong and closed at 121730 yuan, up 1.27%. LME3 nickel closed at US $16110, up 0.37%.

2、 Market analysis

The U.S. fiscal stimulus bill ushered in the dawn, and confidence in the commodity market revived. Overnight, lunni rebounded strongly. The latest closing price was $16050, up $400, or 2.56%, from the previous trading day, reaching a high in nearly a year. London Metal Exchange (LME) 20 Lun nickel inventory was 236832 metric tons, 510 metric tons less than the previous trading day. The overseas epidemic situation has not been effectively controlled. Due to the temporary closure of some mines due to the global epidemic situation, the agency predicts that the world nickel production will drop by 7.4% this year, and domestic nickel mines at the supply end are still tight. In the near future, the largest domestic electric vehicle plant will be put into production, or boost nickel demand. The downstream stainless steel supply is sufficient, but on the whole, the consumption peak season expectation in September has fallen short. Indonesia’s ferronickel construction step by step, there is a risk of incremental supply in the future.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: nickel ore is still tight in the short term, and the largest electric vehicle plant in China is about to be put into operation, which is favorable for nickel price. However, Indonesia’s new steel-making capacity is about to be put into operation, and it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of nickel price will be strong.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot in East China market on October 21 was 14906.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.43% compared with the average market price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), 2.43% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.66% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).

In October, the price of aluminum ingot was stronger, and the overall situation was still horizontal.

Comparison of the arguments for the situation of electrolytic aluminum in October

Multiple arguments:

1. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in October is still at a historical low level

According to statistical data, as of October 15, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 719000 tons, which was at a relatively low historical level, 197000 tons lower than the same period last year.

2. The export volume of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products increased month on month in September

In September 2020, China’s exports of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.7% on a month on month basis, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, and 395000 tons in August.

From January to September 2020, China’s total exports of unshaped and rolled aluminum and aluminum products totaled 3.561 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 813000 tons or 18.6%.

Recent policy factors

1. Limited production in heating season

Recently, the Ministry of ecology and environment issued the action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter of 2020-2021 in the Yangtze River Delta region (Draft for comments), and “2020-2021 for Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, Fenwei plain” The action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter (Draft for comments) requires that the Yangtze River Delta region, Beijing Tianjin wing and surrounding areas and Fenwei plain should be targeted at steel, building materials and nonferrous metals The unorganized emission control of key industries has achieved the goal of reducing excess capacity and eliminating backward capacity in an all-round way, which has little impact on the aluminum industry chain, and the upstream carbon part is affected. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and alumina has not changed significantly.

Aluminum price forecast in October

The downstream operating rate is relatively stable. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the price of raw material alumina and downstream export. It is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will enter a period of fluctuating platform. The price of aluminum ingots will be mainly stable in October, with the price range of 14500-15300 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 20, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5083.33 yuan / ton. At present, the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 5000-5100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation is about 4850-5000 yuan / ton. The overall polyester bottle chip market is in a weak position, and the negotiation atmosphere is low-end, and the downstream is cautious.

The domestic polyester bottle chip market is weak. The downstream market is cautious, the demand is general, the transaction atmosphere is general, the market negotiation focus is weak, the number of new orders is limited, mainly contract customers, just need to purchase, buy as you use. At present, the polyester bottle chip in East China is running at a low level, the current mainstream manufacturers’ price is around 5000-5100 yuan / T, and the market mainstream negotiation price is 500 yuan / T At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5000 yuan / ton, Guangdong Taibao is 5150 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources is 5150 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai is 5100 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber is 5150 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment is smooth and the inventory is general.

The upstream PTA market is relatively strong and has been running for many days. At present, the market price is mainly stable, which slightly supports the pet cost, and has little impact on the whole polyester bottle chip market. The factory quotation is stable and the trading atmosphere is dull.

On October 19, PTA commodity index was 33.75, down 0.08 points compared with yesterday, 67.52% lower than 103.92 points (2011-09-15), and 12.16% higher than the lowest point of 30.09 points on April 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On October 19, the rubber and plastic index was 677 points, up 5 points compared with yesterday, 36.13% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 28.22% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analysts of business club believe that: in the short term, the pet market is weak and the trading atmosphere is dull. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic superior DMF enterprises as of October 20 was 8016.17 yuan / ton, and the domestic DMF market price continued to increase and the price rose. Compared with the same period last month, the price rose by 16.46%, 8.82% higher than that in early October, and the increase was over 300 yuan / ton.

Domestic DMF market is in the upward trend, downstream demand has increased, the shipment is smooth, downstream replenishment is positive, there is no pressure on inventory, strong rising trend, strong center of gravity, high-level upward shift of the focus of negotiation, as of October 20, the chemical industry quotation of Luxi was 8250 yuan / t, Zhangqiu daily 8300 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 7500 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 8300 yuan / T, East China market reference price 8550-8750 yuan / ton, South China City The reference price of the site is 8800-8900 yuan / ton.

The price of methanol in the upstream is stable, the trading atmosphere is still acceptable, and the replenishment is required as the main part, and the negotiation is the main one.

The chemical industry index on October 19 was 761, up 1 point from yesterday, down 25.10% from the highest point 1016 in the cycle (2012-03-13), and 27.26% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to present)

DMF analysts of business agency think: DMF market is currently high-level operation, with strong momentum and maintaining upward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of DMF all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details)