1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1883 yuan / ton on October 19, 1916 yuan / ton on October 28, and the price rose by 1.77% on October 10.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2313 yuan / ton on October 19, and 2356 yuan / ton on October 28. The price rose by 1.87% on October 10.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of monoammonium phosphate has risen, and the operating rate of enterprises is about 67%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 60% powdered ammonium is 2100-2200 yuan / ton. The stable operation of Henan market, 55% ammonium powder factory quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

Recently, the price of diammonium phosphate has risen, and the operating rate of enterprises is about 50%. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2250-2350 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2250-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

At present, the reference average price of 30% grade of raw material phosphorus ore in domestic mainstream areas is around 386.67 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as a week ago. At present, the quotation of mining enterprises is firm, and the downstream is moderately receiving orders. The price of raw material sulfur continued to rise, and the transaction atmosphere was good.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that at present, the price of raw materials of Monoammonium continues to rise, the cost is favorable to support, and the downstream demand increases. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to rise in the short term. At present, the supply of diammonium is tight, the international demand is stable temporarily, and the downstream fertilizer preparation is increasing. Diammonium is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide has maintained stable operation without obvious change. As of October 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of business club’s bulk list. At present, the demand for industrial grade lithium hydroxide is stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the market. On October 27, the commodity index of lithium hydroxide was 130.16, unchanged with yesterday, 65.88% lower than the highest point of 381.48 (2016-09-12) and 30.16% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 04, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

According to customs statistics, in September 2020, China’s import volume of lithium hydroxide was 5.66 tons, the import amount of that month was about 60000 US dollars, and the average import price of that month was 11292.73 US dollars / ton. According to customs statistics, China’s export volume of lithium hydroxide in September 2020 was 5150.64 tons, the export amount of that month was about 43.65 million US dollars, and the average export price of that month was 8475.48 US dollars / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate, in October, the overall market price of lithium carbonate in East China was in a stable state, and the quoted prices of enterprises were mostly stable. As of October 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 39500 yuan / ton on October 1). On October 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the average price of carbon in East China was 44200 yuan / ton). This month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 36000-40000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate is between 40000-45000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market has a stable trend in the near future, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the superimposed demand side. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic local refiners’ petroleum coke products is temporarily stable. On October 28, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1495.75 yuan / ton, and the price remained high, up 28.03% year-on-year. On October 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 116.34, unchanged with yesterday, 25.23% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 73.93% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke is high, and the operation is stable temporarily. The supply of overhaul goods of manufacturers is less. Some medium sulfur coke manufacturers have raised the price by 20-30 yuan per ton. In addition, the output of local refineries has increased or decreased, so the speed of production improvement is slow.

Upstream: in the context of weak demand, whether the oil price can be stable or not, the market still pays more attention to the production reduction policies of OPEC + oil producing countries. Although OPEC + is still in the implementation period of the production reduction agreement, and the implementation strength has been commendable for a time, the oil market is looking for a rebalancing pattern after the demand has cooled again. It is unlikely that OPEC + will continue to increase its efforts on the basis of the current production reduction. Moreover, there are big differences within the organization, and it is difficult to reach a new consensus agreement in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be downward risks in oil prices in the near future.

Downstream: in the near future, the price of carbon in the downstream is stable, the price of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the demand side of petroleum coke has stable support. However, in the later stage, there is limited room for carbon price rise.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall supply of petroleum coke is relatively tight, showing a good situation, and the maintenance of some manufacturers is good for the formation of petroleum coke. Comprehensively, the short-term or high-level consolidation trend of petroleum coke is mainly expected, and the specific demand of downstream market.

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 27 was 43.07, up 1.18 points compared with yesterday, 56.93% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 57.88% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

So far this month, natural rubber futures and spot are on the way. Shanghai Rubber: the 01 contract rose from 12600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month to 15725 yuan / ton on the 27th. So far, it has risen by 3375 yuan / ton, up 26.78%. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 14600 yuan / ton on October 27, a sharp increase of 23.81%. Among them, the highest price this month is 14600 yuan / ton on the 27th, and the lowest is 11792.5 yuan / ton during the National Day holiday, which is a typical rising trend along the way.

New rubber output: Southeast Asia: affected by frequent rainfall weather, new rubber in Southeast Asia is blocked. Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other major global suppliers are affected by the heavy rain, resulting in production problems. Thailand and other places continue to rain. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, drought and other factors, the production of raw materials in rubber production areas at home and abroad will slow down and production reduction is inevitable. In recent months, Thailand and other places have been affected by rainfall. In addition, the reduction of foreign labor during the epidemic period has made Thailand’s rubber output more tense. At the same time, the demand for medical gloves has increased significantly, the demand for latex is good, and the output of cigarette rubber is reduced The price is high due to the tight supply of raw materials. Not only the price of natural rubber has been increased last month, but also the supply of goods in this month is short and the price continues to rise. Among them, India’s rubber production is expected to be good due to good rainfall, and due to the rapid growth of China’s demand, as of the 25th, the price of rss4 grade rubber in Indian market rose to 149 rupees per kilogram, and the quotation of RSS3 grade cigarette rubber at parity with rss4 rubber was 242.1 US dollars (17850 Rupees) per 100 kg. China: at present, the tapping work in China’s domestic area is normal, but it is learned that the new rubber is only digested in the factory after it is produced, and the new tapping volume is not enough to support the market circulation, and the supply side is still tight; although the market demand for domestic rubber is not as urgent as that when the previous index glue is not opened, and the price of rubber imported from abroad is low, so the domestic market relies heavily on overseas rubber The influence factor of this situation is the shortage of domestic rubber. Traders have to turn to foreign rubber, and Xishuangbanna is more dependent on cloud elephant emulsion in Laos and other places. It is reported that the rubber tapping in Hainan is still affected by the weather, the output is small, supporting the price upward. Some data show that by the end of September 2020, the cumulative rubber production will be 426500 tons, 102800 tons less than the same period in 2019, and 99100 tons less than that in 2018.

Import and export: in terms of China’s situation, in August 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 699000 tons, an increase of 30% over the same period last year; from January to August, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 4.508 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with 4.166 million tons in the same period of 2019. Thailand: in September 2020, Thailand exported 2017300 tons of rubber, a decrease of 8.2% compared with the same period last year, worth US $250 million, a decrease of 12.2%. A total of 1895328 tons of rubber were exported in nine months, with a value of 2.368 billion US dollars.

In terms of inventory: as of October 23, 2020, the natural rubber inventory of the Institute was 243925 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 221520 tons, which decreased by 2165 tons and increased by 9490 tons; the inventory of rubber No.20 was 39565 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 35331 tons, increasing 273 tons and decreasing 333 tons respectively; the natural rubber futures inventory decreased in the previous period, while the warehouse receipt inventory increased significantly, while the 20 rubber inventory increased while the warehouse receipt decreased.

Downstream demand: first of all, the operating rate of tire manufacturers continued to rise. On the basis of the increase in September, the operating rate of downstream enterprises continued to rise compared with the month on month. According to the data, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 75.32%, a slight increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with last week and a rise of 9.92 percentage points over the same period of last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. The export of heavy truck tires and the supporting high bearing show that the overall operation situation of tire manufacturers continues to improve. Secondly, tire sales continued to improve. According to customs data, in September, China’s tire export volume maintained a double growth on the same month; in September, China’s rubber tire export volume was 650000 tons, with a month on month increase of 20000 tons, a significant increase of 16.7% year-on-year. In the same month, the export volume of rubber tires was 9.811 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 630000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; the export volume was 9.352 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. In September, the number of new pneumatic rubber tires exported was 47.88 million, with a month on month increase of 1.54 million, and a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The data showed that the consumption of downstream tires increased sharply and the conditions for price upward were sufficient. Thirdly, car sales are in good condition. In September, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.524 million and 2.655 million, respectively, up 14.1% and 12.9% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, the production of rubber tire increased greatly. On October 19, the National Bureau of statistics released economic data for the first three quarters. With the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, the production and sales of automobiles in China increased by 19.1% and 17.4% respectively in September, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and 12.8%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales volume of commercial vehicles were 479000 and 477000 respectively, with a sharp increase of 39.0% and 40.3% year-on-year. Automobile production and sales recovered strongly, and the domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum. Fourth, tire prices have risen. The prices of natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and other raw materials of tire were raised in the third quarter due to the upward trend of natural rubber price. After entering the fourth quarter, the price of natural rubber went up all the way in this month, the cost of tire manufacturers continued to increase, and the price rise tide of tire enterprises was set off again. As of October 22, outlets tire, Wanli tire, Aeolus tire and other enterprises have announced that they will start to increase product prices in October and November, with the increase range from 2% to 4%.

Hot spots of this month:

Thailand: on October 21, Nakorn tangavirapat, head of the rubber Bureau of Thailand (raot), said on Wednesday that the price of rubber is expected to rise to THB 67 per kilogram soon as China’s demand increases, while rubber supply falls due to frequent rainfall in the South and labor shortage during the outbreak. Nakorn believes that the government’s policy of supporting loans to rubber growers will help them hire more workers to improve harvesting capacity and rubber production. The project was implemented in May this year and will end in April 2022 with a budget of 20 billion baht. These loans should ultimately help stabilize the rubber market price.

Thailand reported on October 26 that Thailand’s export of latex gloves increased by 154.9% in September 2020, and 61.4% from January to September this year. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is not yet fully improved, and some markets are not confident of importing latex gloves from China. Orders for latex gloves from Thailand are scheduled for 2021. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 70 baht / kg in November. In addition to the above factors, the business matching work jointly carried out by the rubber administration of Thailand, the Ministry of Commerce and the private sector has led to 69 pairs of trade cooperation, and the global economy has begun to recover, which is also the reason for the substantial growth of Thailand’s latex glove export. But at the same time, there are also some negative factors that need to be paid attention to. For example, the high price of rubber may lead to the suspension of buying in the rubber futures market, which will have an impact on the rubber price and affect the income of rubber farmers. Therefore, the Thai rubber authority should take measures in advance, such as purchasing rubber from 108 markets subordinate to the rubber authority, and keeping glue for rubber farmers to slow down the entry of glue into the market Decide which measure to take according to the market situation.

India: India reported on October 26 that as of October 25, the price of rss4 grade rubber in the Indian market rose to 149 rupees per kilogram, and the price of RSS3 grade cigarette rubber was US $242.1 (17850 Rupees) per 100kg, due to the growing demand of China and supply problems faced by major rubber producing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia. N Radhakrishnan, former president of India’s Cochin rubber Traders Association, said the rise in Indian rubber prices had nothing to do with its domestic progress. Rajiv buddhraja, President of the automobile tire manufacturers association (Atma), said China’s purchases in the global market had risen sharply, pushing up global prices.

U.S.: the U.S. Department of Commerce has agreed to postpone the publication date of the preliminary findings to determine whether passenger / light truck tires sold in the U.S. are sold at less than fair prices to December 29, AP reported. At the request of the United Steelworkers union (USW), the petitioner in the case, the Commerce Department agreed to extend the deadline by 50 days. USW said that due to the “complexity” of collecting the required information, the Ministry of Commerce was unable to collect “complete responses and sufficient information” by the original deadline of November 9. By agreeing to postpone the deadline for publication of the preliminary ruling, the Ministry of Commerce has automatically postponed the date of the final ruling by the same number of days, from late January to mid March.

Europe: the European Union’s passenger car market grew for the first time in 2020 in September, according to data released by the European Association of automobile manufacturers on the 16th. In September, the number of new car registrations across the EU increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 933987. Despite the positive results of car sales in September, the impact of the epidemic still has a significant impact on the European car market, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Among the major markets, the number of new car registrations in Spain, Italy, France and Germany decreased by 38.3%, 34.2%, 28.9% and 25.5% respectively in the first nine months.

ANRPC: according to the association of natural rubber producers (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s natural rubber production was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 11.4%; from January to September, the total production of natural rubber accumulated 426.5 thousand tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%.

About the aftermarket: in China, the demand for rubber has increased rapidly, and the rubber price of Southeast Asian rubber producing countries has risen recently. The main influencing factor is China’s demand factor. In the global natural rubber due to weather, epidemic situation and other factors, production reduction is not only inevitable, but also the situation may be grim because of the weather. The natural rubber market is characterized by a rebound in downstream demand, a large increase in export volume, and a slow output of new rubber. In the current “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season, the natural rubber market has obvious upward support, rapid growth and large increase. According to the current market analysis, after the proper adjustment of natural rubber, there is still a possibility of rising; considering the recent favorable fundamentals of natural rubber raw materials and downstream demand, as well as the epidemic situation, international political situation and other possible negative factors, we think that natural rubber is likely to rise, but at present, there are few spot rubber transactions in the market, there is no market price, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and downstream procurement is sincere Careful, weak support.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic toluene market continued to decline slightly this week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3380 yuan / ton, down 0.88% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China will lower the listed price of toluene by about 50 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is still high, and the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. The market is oversupply, the downstream blended oil and solvent demand is general, the price is slightly weak, and there has been a slight fluctuation in recent years, and there is no improvement. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3350 yuan / ton. The future market continued to pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the development of new crown vaccine, the impact of economic restart and recovery on crude oil demand, the global economic recovery and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil, the recent crude oil market volatility is weak, this week international crude oil prices fell. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.415/barrel to close at $41.235/barrel, down 1% from last week. Analysts and traders are bearish on the outlook for crude oil next week, according to fx168′s weekly financial market survey released on Saturday (October 24). In addition, the world bank said in its latest half year commodity market outlook report that although energy prices have rebounded, they are expected to stabilize below the pre epidemic level. The average price of crude oil in 2021 is US $44 per barrel, higher than US $41 per barrel in 2020.

Downstream, TDI continued a small decline trend this week, with the implementation of 16500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be shaken, and the downstream follow-up will be insufficient. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk was about 533 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 551 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the second outbreak of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the dollar index and stock market linkage. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will remain weak and stable next week.

From October 19 to 23, 2020, the market price of antimony ingot in East China will rise, with 41500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 42000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.20%.

On October 25, the antimony commodity index was 58.47, unchanged with yesterday, down 42.86% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 24.46% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. Note: from 2012 to 08.

This week, domestic antimony ingot market continued to rise, with an average increase of 500 yuan / ton. It is mainly due to the fact that there are still few imported ore ends from abroad, the domestic raw materials are tight, the price of antimony products is relatively high, and the price of antimony products is relatively high. Domestic manufacturers mainly support the price. In addition, the environmental protection and production restriction in the surrounding areas of the main production areas have affected the domestic output to a certain extent, and the supply of antimony ingots is slightly tense. Double positive blessing, antimony ingot market price went up. By the end of the 23rd, the average price of 2-piece low bismuth antimony ingot was 40750 yuan / ton, that of 1-piece antimony ingot was 41750 yuan / ton, and that of 0-antimony ingot was 42250 yuan / ton. The average price of 2-piece high-quality bismuth antimony ingot was 40250 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than last week. The market price of antimony trioxide increased with the trend of antimony ingot. By the end of the week, 99.5% of the average price of antimony trioxide was 37500 yuan / ton, 99.8% was at 39000 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton higher than last week’s price.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 42 th week (10.19-10.23) of 2020, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal plate with a month on month increase, and the top three commodities were titanium concentrate (4.62%), magnesium (3.10%) and zinc (2.79%). There were 6 kinds of commodities falling month on month. The top three products were praseodymium metal (- 3.82%), praseodymium oxide (- 1.55%) and cobalt (- 0.98%). This week, all rose or fell 0.66%. Most of the non-ferrous commodities rose this week.

The business agency believes that under the tight supply and demand of antimony products and the cost pressure, there is still room for growth in the future.

After stepping into the traditional “silver ten”, propane peak season effect is obvious. After the 11 small holidays, propane prices have been pushed up to 4000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of propane was 3277.50 yuan / ton on October 8 and 3737.50 yuan / ton on October 23, with an increase rate of 14.04% and an increase of 8.10% compared with September 1.

In October, propane Market showed a continuous upward trend. Most of the ex factory prices in Shandong market have risen to about 3800 yuan / ton. At present, the market trend is still strong, breaking through the 4000 yuan / ton mark is close at hand. With the advent of the traditional sales season, the rise is expected. In the international market, the high import cost has brought support to the market. After the festival, the weather dropped significantly, the temperature dropped, the terminal demand increased, and the downstream replenishment cycle shortened, which brought obvious benefits to the market. In terms of supply, domestic refineries partially overhauled in October, and the market supply decreased, which also brought some support to the market. The mentality of the downstream is good and the enthusiasm of entering the market is high. Manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory is mostly at a low level, strong mentality, prices continue to push up. Strong bullish attitude towards the future market, positive market entry, good atmosphere for market transactions. Refinery mentality is firm, continuously increase factory prices, inventory is mostly in low level.

Although the domestic propane market is on the rise as a whole, there are still differences between the South and North markets. Due to the obvious cooling of the weather in the northern market, the demand has increased substantially, and the price has been mainly pushed up. The rise of the southern market was not as obvious as that of the northern market. During this period, some of them fell, but in the later stage, with multiple favorable conditions, it entered the upward channel. As of October 23, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification October 23

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3350-3600 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3710-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95.3650-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953700-3750 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953800-3950 yuan / ton

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco released CP in October 2020, with propane at 375 USD / T, up by 10 USD / T compared with last month, and butane at 380 USD / T, up by 25 USD / T compared with last month. Near the end of the month, CP will be released in November, and the current expectation is rising, which is good for the market mentality.

At present, the international crude oil shows a downward trend, which brings some restraint to the rising market. The demand side and supply side support the price rise one after another. The current peak season effect is obvious. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is better, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the inventory is mostly maintained at a low level, and the mentality is mostly firm. It is expected that the propane market will still rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be positive in late October, with various models of products at a high level, and some of them still rose. As of October 26, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 21500 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.12% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market has been running weakly and stably recently, and the quotations of dealers in some regions have risen or fallen slightly. At present, the inventory pressure of adipic acid manufacturers is maintained at a high level, and the unit operating rate is about 80%. Domestic manufacturers’ quotation is mainly stable for the time being. Recently, adipic acid is in the traditional off-season, the downstream demand just needs to take delivery, and the demand growth is not as expected. Adipic acid fundamentals have a certain degree of contradiction between supply and demand. In terms of cost end pure benzene, the recent rise was driven by the rise of downstream styrene for two weeks, with strong support for adipic acid. However, with the slow down of demand and the high level of port inventory of pure benzene, pure benzene may be stable in the near future. Overall, although the upstream support is strong, the market is still weak and stable due to oversupply.

The upstream adipic acid generally supports the cost of PA66, and the current market of PA66 is relatively positive. The domestic spot market will undertake the increase in September from the end of the festival. The operating rate of PA66 in China is maintained at about 50%. Due to the main supply of core downstream customers, the supply of goods in the market is generally insufficient. On the basis of BASF’s letter of price increase at the beginning of the month, DuPont, a major international manufacturer, announced or will increase the price of nylon related products last week. The replenishment operation of downstream factories tends to maintain the rigid demand, but the current consumption of PA66 is at the level of traditional peak season. The automobile and household appliances industries have made significant efforts, and the purchase and sales of PA66 have increased significantly. Tight supply pattern into the traditional peak season, the natural further expansion of growth. Recent business offers are still rising, PA66 is expected to continue the strong trend.

Business agency analysts believe: last week domestic PA66 market continued a positive trend. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is weak, with large stability and small movement, which does not support the cost side of PA66. Downstream factory inquiry and procurement to maintain just demand operation, traditional peak season consumption has been expanded. At present, the continuous tight supply and increased demand are the key factors for the recent sharp rise of PA66. At the same time, the external disk helps layer out. It is expected that the market situation of PA66 will continue to be stronger in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 26, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11266.67 yuan / ton, which was 167 yuan / ton lower than that on October 19 (the average price was 11433.33 yuan), with an increase or decrease of 1.46%.

At present, the domestic market of n-propanol in Shandong has a narrow range of shocks and downward trend. The quotation of regional dealers has been lowered, with the downward range of 100-300 yuan / T. the original external market of ethylene has fallen recently, which has limited support for the n-propanol market, and there is no obvious boost to the downstream demand. The n-propanol manufacturers have reduced their prices to ship goods for the sake of smooth delivery. As of the 26th, the reference price of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong was 10200-10500 yuan / ton, which was about 300 yuan / ton lower than that on 25th. The mainstream price including packaging was about 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the low-end price was 300 yuan / ton lower than that on 25th. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water in Nanjing is stable around 10000-10100 yuan / ton, and the adjustment is not big during the period.

In terms of raw materials, on the 23rd, in the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 706-719 USD / T, down 1 USD / T; CIF northwest Europe quoted 697-706 USD / T, down 1 USD / T. the recent market demand was general, and the international oil price fell on Friday (October 23), affected by increased concerns about crude oil demand. On the 23rd, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.85/barrel, down $0.79. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 41.77 US dollars / barrel, down 0.69 US dollars. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.

The price fluctuation is limited after n-propanol is put into operation

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is general, and the terminal market is relatively large, but there is no good. According to the data analyst of the business club, it is expected that the market as a whole will fluctuate slightly in the short term, mainly to maintain stability, and it is difficult to make a big breakthrough.

According to the business agency data monitoring, as of October 26, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in domestic mainstream areas was around 386.67 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as a week ago. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 2.65%.

In recent years, the domestic phosphate rock market has moved up, downstream purchase on demand

In the middle of October, the domestic Guizhou region led the overall upward trend of the national phosphate ore market. The quotation of medium and low-grade phosphate ore was raised one after another by 10-20 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of mining enterprises is firm, and the downstream moderate orders are received. The yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market prices have been rising to support supply and demand, and the supply and demand remain stable. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore car plate in Guizhou Province refers to 300-360 yuan / ton, 28% The price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou Xifeng Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd. is 350 yuan / ton. The platform price of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. of Kaiyang, Guizhou is 300 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade phosphate ore in Fuquan Huifa, Guizhou is 280 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphate ore market in Yunnan and Hubei is in stable operation. The quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is around 270-290 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei Province is 380-400 yuan / ton.

Downstream, yellow phosphorus, domestic yellow phosphorus market rose slightly last week. The spot sales in the yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, but the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan is relatively stable; the price in Guizhou rises; the price in Sichuan rises slightly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16200 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan is about 16000 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 16000 yuan / ton. With the normal water period approaching, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been increased, and the production costs of yellow phosphorus enterprises have increased. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise their prices.

The rising mentality of downstream supports the stable operation of phosphate ore market

At present, the normal water period is approaching, and the downstream yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise the price, but the downstream of the terminal slightly contradicts the rising price. The market is running at a high level, and the price of phosphoric acid is also rising slightly driven by yellow phosphorus. The rising market in the downstream gives strong support to the phosphate ore. therefore, the phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society believes that the market price of phosphate ore in our country will continue to operate at a high and stable level in the short term.