According to the monitoring data of the business agency, hydrogen peroxide first fell and then rose in August. Since the 10th, the price gradually rose, and the price continued to fluctuate at a high level in the middle and late ten days, and the price dropped slightly near the end of the month. In September, hydrogen peroxide showed a rising trend again. On September 2, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 933 yuan / ton, up 0.72% compared with the end of August. From August 10 to September 2, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen nearly 4%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to August in 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide in the first eight months is still falling more or less, with a larger drop in February and April, both exceeding 10%, and a relatively small decline in March, may and August. Prices rose mainly in January and June, with the largest increase of more than 30% in June. After June, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline by nearly 9% in July. In August, due to the excessive price drop in the first week, the price in the second half of the year had been rising, but the overall situation of the decline was not changed, with the overall decline of more than 2%.

Caprolactam is on the rise now; hydrogen peroxide gold market is expected

Starting from August, the price of terminal caprolactam continued to drop by more than 9% due to the weak market of upstream pure benzene. In September, caprolactam prices showed a rising trend due to the shortage of supply due to the equipment maintenance of pure benzene manufacturers. As of September 2, the average market price of caprolactam was 9616 yuan / ton, which was 1.76% higher than that at the end of August.

On September 2, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 141.76, which was 1.48 points lower than yesterday, 24.57% lower than 187.94 points (October 29, 2019), and 57.77% higher than 89.85 points, the lowest point on January 29, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

The market of caprolactam is on the rise, and manufacturers are more enthusiastic about purchasing hydrogen peroxide, and the price of hydrogen peroxide is rising. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in domestic market is 900-1100 yuan / ton, which is about 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of August.

The gold, silver and ten of paper industry is approaching, and hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise

In mid August, corrugated paper prices were running in a weak position. Leading paper mills such as Liwen, Jingxing and jinfenghuang reduced their prices. This round of falling prices affected seven provinces. In addition, the domestic market has been impacted by the increase in the arrival of paper products. Corrugated paper has been stabilized after a weak decline. The traditional consumption season of the paper industry has arrived, and the market expectation of “gold nine silver ten” has increased, which stimulates the recovery of hydrogen peroxide Market, and the future growth is expected.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business agency, believes that: the golden age of hydrogen peroxide terminal is coming, rigid demand is increasing, and hydrogen peroxide is expected to continue to rise in the future, and get rid of the downturn completely.

1、 Price trend

According to the big list data of business club, the listed price of pure benzene on August 1 was 3230-3400 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3370 yuan / ton), and that on August 31 was between 3020 and 3450 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3390 yuan / ton). The average price was 20 yuan / ton higher than that on August 1, up 0.59% this month.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of August, the pure benzene market continued the rising trend at the end of July and continued to rise. Since the middle of the year, the maintenance of downstream units has increased, and the willingness to lower the price is obvious, and the price of pure benzene in North China has declined significantly.

The operating rate of petroleum benzene in August decreased by about 3% compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventory rose by about 15000 tons this month, dragging down market prices.

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price in August showed an upward trend, and supply and demand were still the main factors restricting the price recovery. Compared with July 31, Brent oil price increased by 1.99 USD / barrel, or 4.64%; WTI oil price increased by 2.33 USD / barrel, or 5.74%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.79%; WTI oil price decreased by 29.41%.

In August, the external market fluctuated in a narrow range. On August 31, South Korea imported 421.33 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, a decrease of 28.67 US dollars / ton, or 6.37% compared with the previous month; and that of East China was 437.5 US dollars / ton, down 7.5 US dollars / ton, or 1.69% compared with the previous month

On the downstream side, styrene: the styrene price dropped sharply after rising slightly at the beginning of this month, and then rebounded in the last ten days, and the overall price was lower than that at the beginning of the month. On August 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5333.33 yuan / ton, while on August 31, it was 5300 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.62%. The highest price of this month appeared on August 6-9, with the price of 5366.67 yuan / ton; the lowest price appeared on August 21-23, with the price of 5133.33 yuan / ton.

Aniline: on August 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4300-4500 yuan / ton; on August 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4430 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4400-4600 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.16% this month.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, crude oil in September is expected to rise as a whole and continue to pay attention to the impact of public health events.

In September, the downstream operating rate is expected to increase, the pure benzene port inventory pressure may be relieved, and the price is expected to break through in the later stage.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5716.67 yuan / ton. Compared with August 15, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.58%; compared with August 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.64%. From August 1 to August 31, the maximum amplitude was 4.24%.

The market of n-butanol rose steadily in the first ten days of August

Since the beginning of August, China’s n-butanol market began to rise steadily. The high price of raw material propylene and propylene gave the cost support to n-butanol manufacturers. The factory inventory was low. The quotation price of n-butanol continued to rise. The manufacturers mainly delivered the contract orders, the downstream replenishment was more positive, the purchasing mentality was good, the cost pressure was increasing, the volume of goods was limited, and the market offer was firm Market prices are running at a high level. As of August 15, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5733.33 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 233 yuan / T, or 4.24%.

In late August, the market of n-butanol turned weak and maintained stability

In late August, the overall stability of domestic n-butanol market was mainly maintained. The downstream demand has weakened, the preliminary maintenance has been completed, the plant operating rate has increased, and the inventory has increased. The offers of some factories in Shandong Province have been slightly reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton. Propylene high support, high cost pressure, n-butanol downward space is limited, the market overall market consolidation run for a week. In the last week of August, the downstream demand of n-butanol weakened again, the transaction was general, and the negotiation of new orders was limited. On the 27th, some factories again slightly lowered the ex factory price of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan / ton. As of August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5700 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.64%.

Prices of n-butanol in some regions of China in August (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

8 / 1 up / down

N-butanol in East China 5700 5800 + 100

South China 5900 6100 + 200

North China 5700 5800 + 100

Northeast China 5500 5600 + 100

On the upstream side, in August, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose and broke through the original range, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with a monthly price of 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared from August 10 to 13, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%. The price of propylene fluctuated periodically in August, with a breakthrough in the price range at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down, but it has remained stable since the end of the week. On the 5th, the prices of some enterprises have been slightly stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month has been started. From the 11th to the 16th, the price has continued to decline, and on the 17th, it has been stable for more than 10 days Most manufacturers still keep their prices stable. On the 29th, the prices dropped by about 50 yuan / ton, and then continued to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 6880 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

Under the pressure of cost, the space of n-butanol negotiation is limited, and the future market is mainly multi-dimensional stable

At present, the domestic n-butanol market continues to be flat, with small orders as the main deal, and large orders are rare. The attitude of the operators is to wait and see. The high price of raw material propylene supports the cost of n-butanol, and the profit pressure of the plant is large. Therefore, the market discussion space is limited. It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market trend in August was strong, and the spot prices of some brands rose slightly. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic market price of PP upstream propylene fluctuated periodically in August. After the upward trend broke through the original range at the beginning of the month, the price fluctuated and stabilized, reaching 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with a monthly high price of RMB 7036 / T from August 10 to 13, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down, but it has remained stable since the end of the week. On the 5th, the prices of some enterprises have been slightly stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month has been started. From the 11th to the 16th, the price has continued to decline, and on the 17th, it has been stable for more than 10 days Most manufacturers still keep their prices stable. On the 29th, the prices dropped by about 50 yuan / ton, and then continued to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 6880 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory pressure, propylene prices are expected to rise.

Upstream propylene fluctuated and rose in August with a strong trend, which supported the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) in August was stable and rose slightly, and the spot price was adjusted slightly. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other production enterprises decreased, while the decline rate of social inventory was slightly lower. Far upstream crude oil has a strong trend in the near future, forming a certain support for chemicals. In the first half of this month, some ports were prone to extreme weather, which affected the arrival of ships and cargoes, and the port inventory also declined. In the late middle of the year, there is a resumption of production of PP maintenance equipment. At present, the negative expectation of increasing PP supply is not obvious. The quotation of merchants is following up. At present, the downstream price reduction intention is obvious. It is expected that the upward adjustment range of PP (wire drawing) price may be narrowed.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 31, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7983.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, it increased by 2.57%. Previously reported that a number of production lines in August ushered in production, the current positive market diluted the impact of supply expansion on PP prices. In addition, the extreme weather led to the same decrease in the arrival of fiber materials, and the futures market strengthened, which naturally had a boosting effect on the spot. At present, the supply and demand of domestic PP fiber material and drawing material are stable, and the operation situation is similar. PP (fiber) is expected to continue finishing market in the near future.

PP meltblown material market weakness continues, domestic PP melt blown material market confidence is insufficient, the price continues to fall. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention products is declining seriously. The current market supply exceeds the demand, and the price of PP melt blown materials has fallen continuously. PP (35.5%) business in August. However, overseas demand did not decrease. In the middle of this month, several large domestic export factories failed, affecting the market atmosphere, leading to a significant decline in the market. In the follow-up, there are complications that aggravate the competition of domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers. However, the reason for the weakness of PP melt blown materials in the general direction is that the domestic mask factories have increased sharply and their profits have been diluted seriously. In addition, at the beginning of this month, the news that Sinopec’s Yanshan Petrochemical and Yizheng Chemical fiber changed from directional supply to national customer sales also impacted the current market. At present, the epidemic prevention materials are more diversified, and the demand for meltblown materials is also scattered. The demand for PP (melt blown) has not improved, and the business mentality is negative. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: August domestic PP spot market trend shocks strong. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) fluctuated and rose, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, prices continued to callback. The current inventory decline, supply expansion expectations and futures rise and other mixed news at the same time. Downstream factory stock situation is OK, business offers have increased. PP spot price is expected to narrow the range of adjustment in the near future.

Commodity index: on August 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 84.94, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 22.08% from the highest point of 109.01 in the cycle (August 28, 2019), and increased by 0.74% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

However, the price of aluminum chloride rose by 46.64% on the second half of the month, with the highest rise of RMB 1578.64% on the second half of the month, with the aluminum content of 1578.64% higher than that at the second half of the month.

According to the data of business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China decreased slightly in the second half of the month, with the quotation of 335 yuan / ton on August 16 and 300 yuan / ton on 31 August, with a decrease of 35 yuan / ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the quotation of hydrochloric acid Market in the second half of the month is mainly stable, and the quotation of a few enterprises has changed. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton, Jinan Yuanfei Weiye hydrochloric acid is 400 yuan / ton, Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is 240 yuan / ton, compared with the first half of the month, the price is stable. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the cost support is general, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increasing, and now it is easy to make poison, and it is difficult to handle the procedures. The supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream enterprises have a good purchasing enthusiasm. Polyaluminum downstream: at present, there is little change in the downstream purchase of polyaluminum chloride, and the demand is relatively light. Polyaluminum manufacturers still have high inventory, high sales pressure and weak market stability.

In terms of industry, the water treatment industry began to change in August. However, because the price of raw material calcium powder increased by 80 yuan / ton to about 1000 yuan / ton, some manufacturers were subject to the cost rise and raised the market price of polyaluminum chloride, while the prices of other manufacturers were mainly stable.

As for the future market, the business agency analyzed that under the “golden nine silver ten” expectation, the water treatment industry was expected to be better, and the price of polyaluminum chloride was subject to part of the cost price increase; in terms of the aftermarket, the water treatment industry in autumn is also a traditional peak season, with the increase of projects and the increase of demand, the trend of polyaluminum chloride in the future market will be mainly steady and small rise.

Commodity index: on August 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 84.94, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 22.08% from the highest point of 109.01 in the cycle (August 28, 2019), and increased by 0.74% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, the mainstream quotation of PAC solid and content ≥ 28% in August showed a slight rise, of which the quotation on the 1st day was about 1561.43 yuan / ton, on the 31st was 1571.43 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.64% in August, but the highest point was 1582.86 yuan / ton on August 25, with the maximum amplitude of 1.19%.

According to the data of business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China decreased slightly in August, with 357.5 yuan / ton on August 1 and 300 yuan / ton on 31 August, down 57.5 yuan / ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the quotation of hydrochloric acid Market in the second half of the month is mainly stable, and the quotation of a few enterprises has changed. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton, Jinan Yuanfei Weiye hydrochloric acid is 400 yuan / ton, Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is 240 yuan / ton; compared with last month, some prices are reduced. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the cost support is general, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increasing, and now it is easy to make poison, and it is difficult to handle the procedures. The supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream enterprises have a good purchasing enthusiasm. Polyaluminum downstream: at present, there is little change in the downstream purchase of polyaluminum chloride, and the demand is relatively light. Polyaluminum manufacturers still have high inventory, high sales pressure and weak market stability.

In terms of industry, the water treatment industry began to change in August. However, because the price of raw material calcium powder increased by 80 yuan / ton to about 1000 yuan / ton, some manufacturers were subject to the cost rise and raised the market price of polyaluminum chloride, while the prices of other manufacturers were mainly stable.

As for the future market, the business agency analyzed that under the “golden nine silver ten” expectation, the water treatment industry was expected to be better, and the price of polyaluminum chloride was subject to part of the cost price increase; in terms of the aftermarket, the water treatment industry in autumn is also a traditional peak season, with the increase of projects and the increase of demand, the trend of polyaluminum chloride in the future market will be mainly steady and small rise.

Commodity index: on August 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.64, which was the same as yesterday, 20.06% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 3.32% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, in August, polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) showed a trend of rising first and then decreasing slightly. On the first day, the mainstream quotation was 13566.67 yuan / ton, and on the 31st was 14016.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 3.32%. From the perspective of manufacturers’ quotations, most quotations were stable, and a few manufacturers lowered their quotations to promote inventory consumption.

Among them, the mainstream quotation range of polyacrylamide this month is as follows: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) offer 14000-15000 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, 7800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton/ The price of solid particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton with molecular weight of 18 million yuan, and that of powder with molecular weight of 18-20 million yuan / ton is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; that of non-ionic is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

The price of upstream acrylonitrile was quoted at 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, with a monthly increase of 850 yuan / ton, and 8450 yuan / ton on the 31st daily. Plant dynamics: in August, the settlement price of main acrylonitrile manufacturers was concentrated at 7800 yuan / ton. Jilin chemical fiber Qifeng and Jimeng acrylic fiber plants planned to stop for maintenance on August 28 for 10-15 days, affecting the acrylic fiber output of about 15000 tons. Shanghai SECCO’s acrylonitrile listing price rose by 300 yuan / ton this week and implemented 7900 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream demand, August is still at the end of the off-season sales season. The high temperature affects the construction demand, so it is inevitable that the market will be light. At present, it will enter September soon and the “golden nine silver ten” will come soon.

From the perspective of industry, since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to be stable. From this month to September and October, it immediately entered the “golden nine silver ten”, and the traditional peak season can be expected.

After the market forecast, the business agency analysis believes that the price of acrylonitrile, the raw material of polyacrylamide, continued to rise in August, although the range did not exceed 1000 yuan / ton, but due to the large inventory pressure of acrylonitrile amide manufacturers, the price was slightly reduced to promote inventory consumption. For the future market trend, inventory driven by the traditional sales peak season, the inventory may decline faster, the market transaction atmosphere can be improved, and the future market can be expected.