This week (8.31-9.4), the price of nitrile rubber increased slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 13583 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 13700 yuan / ton at the weekend, an overall increase of 0.86%.

The ex factory price of NBR manufacturers increased by 400-800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of NBR n41 in Lanhua was 12500 yuan / ton, and the offer of 3305 was 13400 yuan / ton. Downstream suppliers purchased on demand, the prices of raw materials went up, and the offers of traders went up. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of September 4, the butadiene price was 5625 yuan / ton, up 4.23% from 5387 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; as of September 4, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was 8300 yuan / ton, up 5.06% from 7900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Aftermarket forecast: the NBR analysts of the business agency believe that the higher raw material price and the higher cost will push up the price of nitrile. However, as the downstream demand is still slightly weak, the price of NBR may be higher in the later stage.

The domestic ethanol market was consolidated in a narrow range. Business agency monitoring showed that the domestic ethanol market price was 6100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6050 yuan / ton at the weekend. During the week, the price dropped slightly by 0.82%. The price fell by 2.22% month on month compared with the same period last month, and the price increased by 12.54% compared with the same period last year.

The domestic ethanol market has been mixed this week. First of all, from the perspective of raw material corn market, the auction price of raw material corn is on the high side, but the transaction rate is only 33%, most of which are sold out, and the downstream demand is not ideal; secondly, some production enterprises in Henan Province shut down, and the enterprise inventory is low; thirdly, from the perspective of demand, the demand for liquor in the downstream has increased slightly, while the demand for other aspects is still insufficient. Therefore, the current ethanol market is mainly narrow range finishing.

Logistics: at present, the freight is stable. This week, Heilongjiang Shandong Dezhou freight is 280 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang Su 330 yuan / ton, Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton. The above prices are without tickets.

In terms of raw materials, corn: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic corn price rose sharply in August and then fell back. On August 1, the average price of the third grade yellow corn was 2237.14 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average price was 2244.29 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.32%. It will take time for the new season corn to come into the market, and the domestic corn market price will continue to fall to a reasonable range with the policy corn delivery price.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose as a whole this week. Recently, the export volume of ethyl acetate shows an increasing trend. Anhui Ruibai, Jiangsu Sopu and other manufacturers have prepared goods for export, gradually alleviating the situation that the supply of ethyl acetate Market exceeds the demand. The downstream purchase of ethyl acetate after the rise is positive, and the market transaction is smooth, the ethyl acetate market is optimistic after the rise.

In the future, the ethanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic ethanol market will be sorted and operated in the short term.

In August 2020, the domestic 1 ᦇ lead ingot Market will rise first and then restrain. The average price of domestic market will be 15700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15783.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 0.53%.

On September 3, the lead commodity index was 96.86, up 0.15 points compared with yesterday, 27.72% lower than 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and 29.79% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In terms of futures market, August was dominated by wide volatility, with a monthly rise of nearly 6%. Thanks to the market optimism of China’s economic improvement and the new strategy of the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back to a more healthy level, the futures market has improved this month. The domestic futures market as a whole maintained a similar trend with the spot market, with the main trend of rising at the beginning of the month and then falling back to the high point of 16585 yuan / ton this month, and then falling back to 16000-16200 yuan / ton.

In August, the spot lead market as a whole surged higher and fell back. At the beginning of the month, the domestic spot market price rose with a series of favorable factors in the futures market. Later, with the overall weak macro news, the international geopolitical situation was tense, the metal market was under pressure, the futures market went down, and the spot market began to decline. In the middle of the month, the continued weakening of the US dollar brought a wave of boost to the metal market, while Lun lead and Shanghai lead fluctuated slightly. As of the end of the month, most of the traders in the market delivered goods at a fair price, and the transactions of individual orders were less, and most of them were old customers. Although the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased, most enterprises are more interested in the price of renewable lead. The consumption of raw lead inventory is slow.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in August 2020, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous plate that rose month on month in the price list of bulk commodities, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 40.9% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium alloy (16.09%), neodymium oxide (15.08%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (15.01%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with dysprosium metal (- 4.21%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 3.26%) and dysprosium oxide (- 2.96%). This month, the average rise and fall was 4.64%.

In the aftermarket, the business agency believes that although the downstream is expected to enter the peak season, it is more and more obvious that the peak season is not prosperous this year. The downstream battery enterprises start to gradually improve, but they are more inclined to purchase recycled lead. The price of recycled lead is also relatively strong. It is expected that the spot price of lead in the future market will fluctuate.

Relevant data:

ILZSG: global lead market oversupply narrowed to 16300 tons in June: Lisbon, August 20, the international aluminum and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) data released on Thursday showed that the global lead market oversupply fell to 16300 tons in June and 45300 tons in May. From January to June 2020, the cumulative surplus is 78000 tons, and the shortage is 13000 tons in the same period of 2019.

U.S. imports of lead increased in June: Washington, D.C., reported on August 5 that the U.S. import of lead in June was 28369697kg, higher than 24280388kg in May. From January to June, the United States imported 171586669 kg of lead. Data show that U.S. exports of lead in June were 180486kg, lower than 203403kg in May. In the first six months of this year, exports totaled 778300kg.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8000 yuan / ton, and the average price at weekend was 8133.33 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased slightly, with the range of 1.67%.

2、 Market analysis

Isopropanol prices rose slightly this week. The price of raw material acetone rose sharply, and the price of propylene rose sharply, which directly led to the price rise of isopropanol. So far, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu Province is about 8200 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 8200 yuan / ton.

Chart: comparison chart of acetone and isopropanol price trend from July to September

In terms of raw materials, the price of raw material acetone rose sharply this week. At present, acetone shippers have full confidence in pushing up the price, and the offer is firm and low, and the factory offer has been raised in a narrow range for many times. In this week, the market price of acetone has increased by about 500 yuan / ton. Up to now, the market quotation in East China is 6850 yuan / ton; that in South China is 6900 yuan / ton; that in Shandong is 6850 yuan / ton; and that in surrounding markets of Yanshan is 6600 yuan / ton. It directly led to the rise of isopropanol price.

In terms of propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong area rose sharply this week, with smooth shipment of propylene manufacturers and no pressure on inventory. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic average price of propylene was 6940.09 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 7228.64 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price rose by 4.17% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

Chemical branch of the business club isopropanol analysts believe: raw materials acetone, propylene market prices both rise. Supported by cost, isopropanol market price rebounded. At present, the export situation is relatively stable, traders mainly wait and see, and downstream factories purchase on demand. It is expected that isopropanol will still have a small rise in the short term, focusing on the follow-up changes in isopropanol news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of the end of the week, the spot nickel price was 119250 yuan / ton, down 1.38% from the beginning of the week, 4.85% higher than the beginning of the week, and 18% lower than the same period of the same year. The recent trend of nickel price is better, and there is a correction at the weekend.

2、 Market analysis

Fitch raised its nickel price for 2020

Fitch raised its forecast for nickel prices in 2020. Prices remain unchanged in the medium to long term, reflecting possible tight supply as the Indonesian government still bans ore exports and may not be completely replaced by other nickel suppliers. Fitch expects strong long-term demand, especially from electric vehicle batteries.

Ore prices continue to strengthen

At the end of August, the price of low and medium grade nickel ore in Mysteel rose, while the price of high-grade nickel ore remained stable temporarily. Among them, Ni: 0.9% High Alumina ore CIF price is 33 US dollars / wet ton; Ni: 0.9% low aluminum ore CIF price is 43 US dollars / wet ton; Ni: 1.5% nickel ore CIF price is 60 US dollars / wet ton; Ni: 1.8% nickel ore CIF price is stable at 80 US dollars / wet ton.

As the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, the domestic ferronickel plants are enthusiastic about the preparation of warehouses before the rainy season. The shortage of nickel ore supply has not been alleviated in this stage, and the shipping costs have been increased. As a result, the domestic nickel prices remain high and traders are reluctant to sell their goods.

Downstream stainless steel

This week, the downstream stainless steel prices rose, Wuxi inventory of the total number of each department, 300 series of resources is still in the process of rapid de stocking, which due to the relatively limited supply of hot rolling, the overall speed of stock removal is faster than that of cold rolling. The cold rolling increase of 300 series is less than that of hot rolling. Traders are more enthusiastic about increasing inventory, while terminals are purchasing on demand. The market price is higher, but the transaction is general. The demand for materials for home appliances is still showing signs of recovery, and the stainless steel end will also benefit from it.

New energy vehicles

The sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe has surpassed that in China from January to July. The Chinese market is also recovering gradually, but it is still difficult for the market to exceed last year’s level. The demand for new energy battery is recovering, but the price of ternary precursor may not be able to follow the rise of nickel. The price of nickel sulfate is not as high as that of electrolytic nickel, and nickel sulfate is lack of low-cost resources.

3、 Future prospects

After market forecast: the ore supply is tight, the demand for new energy is improved, and the performance demand of stainless steel chain is better, especially the arrival of the peak season in September, which has boosted the nickel price. However, with the capacity expansion of Indonesia ferronickel project, the market is worried about the accelerated return of Indonesian ferronickel to China, which will lead to oversupply in the domestic market and drag down the nickel market. Nickel is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently (8.31-9.3) melamine market fell. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of September 3, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5366.67 yuan / ton, which was 3.01% lower than the beginning of the week (August 31) and 0.63% higher than that of August 3.

On August 31, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 5533.33 yuan / ton. Under the light downstream demand and the shipping pressure, the enterprises mainly reduced prices and absorbed orders. On September 2, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises dropped to 5400 yuan / T. at present, some units were shut down for maintenance, and the production of other enterprises was stable, and the operation rate of melamine was high. However, the downstream demand power was insufficient, the sales of enterprises were under pressure, and the market decline was prolonged In addition, the price of melamine fell to 5366.67 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, melamine prices in some regions (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation): the price of melamine in some areas is higher than that in other regions

Regional date price remarks

Factory quotation of 5200 yuan / ton in Shandong Province on September 3

Ex factory quotation of 4800 yuan / T on September 3 in Xinjiang

Factory quotation of 5200 yuan / T on September 3, Sichuan

The factory quotation of 5000 yuan / ton on September 3, Henan Province

For upstream urea, according to the monitoring sample data of business agency, the factory price of urea in Shandong on September 2 was 1720 yuan / ton, and the urea commodity index on September 2 was 80.00, which was the same as yesterday, 29.89% lower than the highest point of 114.11 (2012-05-08), and 43.88% higher than the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of the business agency believe that at present, the supply of melamine market is sufficient. Due to the weak downstream demand, the digestion capacity of melamine supply is limited, and the market is not good enough. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will mainly operate under pressure, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Crude benzene commodity index was 39.03 on September 1, unchanged with yesterday, down 70.40% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 27.80% higher than the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (North China) in August 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

August 5 3400 + 100

In August 2020, Sinopec only raised the price once. By the end of the month, Sinopec North China pure benzene implemented 3400 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

The crude benzene market fluctuated slightly at the beginning of this month. At the beginning of this month, the ex factory price of pure benzene was raised, the market atmosphere was boosted, and the price of crude benzene went up. Later, with the market price of pure benzene going down, the inventory of pure benzene in East China was high, the external news was weak, the shutdown of downstream units increased, and the demand for pure benzene was poor The crude benzene price rose with the improvement of downstream demand.

At the beginning of August, the pure benzene market continued the rising trend at the end of July and continued to rise. Since the middle of the year, the maintenance of downstream units has increased, and the willingness to lower the price is obvious, and the price of pure benzene in North China has declined significantly. The operating rate of petroleum benzene in August decreased by about 3% compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventory rose by about 15000 tons this month, dragging down market prices. Terminal demand phenol, caprolactam operating rate increased significantly, there is a certain demand support for the upstream. But the downstream profit is limited, and the price support is not strong.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in August 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun chemical shutdown 100000 tons, restart time to be determined

Laiwu Iron and steel normal 100000 tons

The parking capacity of Shandong Jinneng Chemical Co., Ltd. is 100000 tons to be determined

Shanxi sanwei parking 200000 tons to be determined

Shandong Huineng chemical normal 200000 tons

In the near future, there are still many overhauls in hydrogenated benzene enterprises, but the overall operating rate has increased, which can reach more than 60%, slightly higher than that in the previous period, and the demand for crude benzene is increased.

In the future market, the business agency believes that the market cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene still exists. The price of pure benzene has been fluctuating in the near future. There are still many bad fundamentals. The sales of crude benzene are in general. The coking enterprises have started to operate well in the near future, and the rough labor supply is sufficient. It is expected that the future market will fluctuate mainly and the price will fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the large list data of business agency, the price of aniline rose slightly in August. On August 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4300 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing was 4300-4400 yuan / ton; on August 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4430 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500-4600 yuan / ton, up 1.16% this month.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene market continued to rise at the end of July in early August. Since the middle of the year, the maintenance of downstream units has increased, and the willingness to lower the price is obvious, and the price of pure benzene in North China has declined significantly. Port inventory rose by about 15000 tons this month, dragging down market prices. On August 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3230-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3370 yuan / ton), and on August 31, it was 3020-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3390 yuan / ton). The average price was 20 yuan / ton higher than that on August 1, up 0.59% this month.

The price of nitric acid in East China was 1533.33 yuan / ton on August 1 and 1500 yuan / ton on 31 August, which was 33.33 yuan / ton or 2.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Aniline prices rose in the first half of this month, and began to stabilize in the middle of the month. In the first half of the month, Huatai overhauling reduced the market supply, and the enterprises in East China executed more orders, and the export sales decreased, and the price rose slightly. In the last ten days, due to the shortage of supply in East China, spot prices continued to rise. Huatai in Shandong Province is expected to restart, and enterprises will wait and see to stabilize prices.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, in September, the downstream operating rate is expected to increase, the storage pressure of pure benzene port may be relieved, and the price is expected to break through in the later stage.

Huatai aniline plant restart, expected to increase supply. Enter the “golden nine silver ten”, focus on the recovery of downstream demand, aniline is expected to strengthen.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on August 1 was 9566 yuan / ton, while that on August 31 was 9450 yuan / ton. The price fell by 1.22% this month.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic caprolactam fell first and then rose in this month. The negative factors increased in the first ten days of August, and the price of caprolactam began to decline. The price gradually stabilized in the middle of August and rose steadily to the end of the month. As of the end of the month, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9000 yuan / T, and the factory had delivered the factory in cash, with a capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 9900 yuan / ton. The 400000 tons / year plant starts normally, and the caprolactam unit operates normally. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9700 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is normally started up, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9700 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Raw material pure benzene rose 0.59% this month. At the beginning of August, the pure benzene market continued the rising trend at the end of July and continued to rise. Since the middle of the year, the maintenance of downstream units has increased, and the willingness to lower the price is obvious, and the price of pure benzene in North China has declined significantly. In September, the downstream operating rate is expected to increase, the pure benzene port inventory pressure may be relieved, and the price is expected to break through in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that this month’s raw material pure benzene inventory more, the cost of heavy pressure. With the improvement of downstream demand, polymerization plant trading is good, caprolactam market or gradually better. Caprolactam prices are expected to rise in September.

he domestic acetone market showed a trend of falling first and then rising in August, and the momentum of the rise was sufficient near the end of the month. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on August 1, the national average price of acetone was 6100 yuan / ton, on August 8, the national average price of acetone was 5362 yuan / ton, with the market down by 12.09%; on August 31, the average price of national acetone market was 6370 yuan / ton, and the market was up 18.79% in the middle and late ten days. Among them, the East China market declined from 5800 yuan / ton on August 1 to 5250 yuan / ton on August 7, and the East China market fell by 9.48% in the first ten days, 6380 yuan / ton by the end of the month, and 21.52% in the acetone market in the middle and late ten days.

Average price trend of acetone in national market

In September, the acetone market continued its upward trend. The offer in East China was as high as 6850 yuan / ton, and the average price of acetone in the national market was over 6700 yuan / ton. And the current acetone supply is relatively concentrated, the factory raised the price many times, the market confidence is sufficient.

Average price trend of acetone in East China market

At the beginning of August, petrochemical enterprises concentrated to drop 600 yuan / ton to 5800 yuan / ton. However, with the expected broadcast of a large amount of acetone arriving in Hong Kong, the shippers were under pressure and were anxious to ship goods. Low price goods were frequently found in the market. The market was once down to 5250 yuan / T. at this time, the bottom reading mentality increased, the replenishment mood of terminal factories increased, the volume of real offer continued to increase, and the enthusiasm of intermediate traders to enter the market increased In the case of large volume and increasing market inquiries, the activity has been significantly improved. In the middle of the year, the market has reversed. Large factories have been stocked in the market, and there are also large traders receiving goods. The market has stopped falling and pushed up.

In the middle and late ten days, the market continued to rise, and domestic factories raised their listing prices to help the market. At this time, affected by the typhoon, the arrival of imported goods was delayed, the unloading was delayed, and the port inventory continued to decline. The market quotation continued to rise, and the market price continued to rise, so it was difficult to find a low price. As of the end of August, the mainstream offer in East China was 6400 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 6400 yuan / ton, and that in surrounding areas of Yanshan was 6250 yuan / ton. As of the end of August, the domestic plant operation was at a high level, about 90%. Sinopec’s 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant was restarted on August 24. Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has started but has not yet discharged materials. The operating rate of other petrochemical plants is above 90%. It is estimated that the 150000 T / a phenol ketone plant in blue star Harbin will be shut down for one month in early September, and other plants will remain in the current state.

In August, the raw material support was good, in which Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased by 100-150 yuan / ton, the mainstream market offer was 3450 yuan / ton, the cumulative price increase of acetone in Sinopec was about 200 yuan / ton, the implementation of 6850-6900 yuan / ton, the cost of phenol and ketone increased, and the co product of acetone phenol declined slightly under the deadlock in August, so there is more profit space for the phenol ketone factory Focus on acetone market.

At present, the market in September is very good, and the factory has raised the factory price slightly in two working days. At present, Sinopec’s offer is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, while the East China market’s offer is pushed up to 6850 yuan / T. in September, Bluestar Harbin phenol ketone plant has a maintenance plan, but it is expected that in September, the 650000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical may produce products, and the theoretical value of domestic acetone supply There will be an increase. The supply of imported goods will be normally supplied in accordance with the contract for the time being. On the whole, the supply side is relatively adequate.

From the downstream point of view, the operating rates of isopropanol, MMA and MIBK are relatively stable, but the market offer is relatively firm, and the operating rate of bisphenol a still has a tightening trend. Among them, the average operating rate of other units is 85% in Sinopec Mitsubishi unit shutdown, and the market offer of bisphenol A has been pushed up to more than 11000 yuan / ton, which shows that the downstream of the industrial chain is generally better.

From the perspective of business associations, since August, more than 100 chemical products tested by the business associations show that the chemical industry index has shown a unilateral upward trend. On August 1, the chemical industry index was 662 points, and as of September 2, the chemical industry index was 694 points, up 4.74%. The chemical industry chain showed a steady upward trend. From the industry point of view, “gold nine silver ten” is worth looking forward to, but the current acetone market starts high and comprehensive From the point of view, the operating rate has little change, while the purchase of terminal factories is stable and recommended. In terms of import, the near ocean source of goods is general, but the contract transportation is normal. The business association predicts that the short-term acetone market will remain at a high level, estimated at 6800-7000 yuan / T, but the market lacks sustained action. In terms of the overall upward trend of the industry, the market in September is worth looking forward to. However, after the epidemic, many people in the industry predicted that the market would recover in stages this year. It is impossible for the market to continue to rise unilaterally. It should be a periodic upward trend in repeated periods. It is expected that the trend of acetone market will be basically consistent with that of the chemical industry.