According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On the 13th, the average price of ethylene was $728.50/t, and the price on the 17th was $727.00/t, up 1.17%. The current price is up 4.91% month on month, and the current price is down 19.63% year-on-year.

Recently, ethylene is on the rise as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $805-815 / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at $755-765 / T. The European ethylene market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 17th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 687-698 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 673-685 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to $523-535 per ton as of the 17th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is on an upward trend. The demand for ethylene in the whole market is good, and the market continues to rise.

International: on September 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at US $40.16/barrel, up US $1.88 or 4.90%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 42.22 US dollars / barrel, up 1.69 US dollars or 4.16%. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to a sharp drop in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and a combination of hurricanes forced a large amount of oil production in the United States. Crude oil soared, giving ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to rise.

Recently, the domestic styrene market has been stable and small, and some of the prices have been raised. The recent hurricane again affected the production in the Gulf area of the United States, boosting the formation of crude oil. Intraday, crude oil rose, futures, electronic trading and other horizontal trading small shocks. In terms of port inventory, the wharf inventory decreased, and the downstream operating rate generally increased, and some downstream were considered to prepare for the National Day holiday, so the demand side was improved. The styrene market continues to maintain a volatile situation in a large range. Today, the overall market price of styrene in East China is slightly higher than that in volume. Styrene in South China was raised to 5350-5450 yuan / ton, and that in North China was raised to 5350 yuan / ton.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, due to the impact of Hurricane “Sally” landing in the south of the United States on the same day, some offshore crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down. International oil prices soared, cost support is strong, so business agency data analysts predict that ethylene external price will rise next.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the decline in supply, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has been strong and upward. As of September 17, the average price in Shandong was about 2360 yuan / ton, up 3.51% compared with the beginning of the month and 3.06% higher than the same period of last month.

Due to the impact of enterprise burden reduction and low inventory, the spot supply of dichloromethane in Shandong Province decreased slightly. In addition, the price of liquid chlorine of raw materials was high. The price of dichloromethane in Shandong was strong and upward. The price of dichloromethane in East and South China was driven by the influence of Shandong Province. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2360-2400 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2450 yuan / ton.

In the upstream market, affected by the strong trend of futures, the quotation of methanol market in various regions has also increased to varying degrees. Some production enterprises temporarily shut down their devices, and the shipment of enterprises is fair, and the manufacturer’s offer is firm. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, at present, it is about 1807 yuan / T; the liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the enterprise’s inventory is declining, and the maintenance of some devices has not been restored Moreover, the supply and demand in the industry is relatively balanced. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 700-900 yuan / ton.

Under the influence of high cost pressure, the price of refrigerants has risen, but the support of the demand side is not enough, the demand of downstream car manufacturers is less, and the export is also poor. For the sudden surge of refrigerant, the receiving capacity is insufficient, and the enterprises are not able to ship. At the same time, the supply is abundant, and there are plans for new production capacity to enter the market. The contradiction between supply and demand is likely to deepen. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the future market situation is still not optimistic. The pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and there was insufficient support for dichloromethane.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the inventory pressure of dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong is not large at present. In addition, some traders prepare goods before the festival, and the downstream buyers have a strong mentality, so the enterprises have a good intention of supporting prices and are expected to run stably in a short period of time.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of September 16, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 5733.33 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 433 yuan / ton or 6.97% compared with the price on September 1.

“Gold nine more than half” butanone market is sluggish and hard to change, price is still at the bottom of the deadlock

Unknowingly, it has already passed half of September. It is not obvious that the domestic butanone market in China has not improved significantly at the time of the traditional “golden nine”. Since the beginning of the month, the market has been hovering around 6100 yuan / ton. Under the cold demand of downstream, the market is full of fatigue, the digestion and inventory in the market is slow, and the transmission between upstream and downstream is not smooth On the 10th, the factory’s offer prices were lowered by 100-200 yuan / ton, while the low-end price dropped to 5600 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the weak market trend did not change, and the demand dragged the butanone market into a deadlock. On the 14th, the market offer fell again, and the industry had a strong desire to rise. On the 15th, the offer of some regions increased slightly by 50-100 yuan / T, and the price of butanone was still at the bottom. As of the 16th, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 5733.33 yuan / ton, compared with the price on September 1 Compared with Georgia, the average price decreased by 433 yuan / ton, or 6.97%.

Price quotation of butanone in some areas of China (for reference only)

Regional product specifications up and down 9 / 1 9 / 16

South China butanone purified water delivery: 6300 yuan / ton 5900 yuan / ton – 400 yuan

East China butanone purified water storage 6150 yuan / ton 5800 yuan / ton – 350 yuan

North China butanone purified water delivery: 5800 yuan / ton 5600 yuan / ton – 200 yuan

On the upstream side, although the LPG civil market fell in the first week of September, the amplitude was not large. In the second week, the decline trend of LPG civil market remained unchanged, and the focus continued to move downward, and the range was more obvious. There was no increase in downstream demand, mainly consumed inventory, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was slightly light. In addition, the early shutdown of enterprises has been restored, the market supply has increased, increasing the sales pressure. Down stream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, enter the market operation cautiously. Manufacturers did not improve shipment, inventory pressure gradually increased. Continuously reduce the price and give priority to shipment. The prices of some manufacturers have fallen below 3000 yuan / ton. As of September 16, most of the Southern markets were down, with weak demand in South China and poor trading atmosphere in the market. Refineries fell sharply by about 50-100 yuan / ton. The decline range of the northern market was narrowed, and some enterprises still had small rises. The price in Shandong was about 20 yuan / ton, and the price in Northeast China was relatively strong.

Parking is difficult to meet domestic and external demand downturn, and the market of butanone is more narrow range after finishing operation

At present, many factories choose to park for maintenance due to the continuous reduction of profits and slow delivery. However, the export and domestic sales of butanone are in a double weak trend. Although the factory supply has decreased, the domestic butanone supply spot is still at a high level. At present, the industry is looking forward to a strong rise, and the future market is expected to stop falling. However, whether it can really usher in the upward trend still needs to pay more attention to the demand side In the short term, the butanone market may be dominated by narrow range finishing.

Commodity index: on September 15, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 84.94, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 22.08% from the highest point of 109.01 in the cycle (August 28, 2019), and increased by 0.74% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, in the first half of September, the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride solid and content ≥ 28% was stable, which dropped slightly on the basis of the price fluctuation and increase in the second half of August, and remained stable at the price of 1571.43 yuan / ton.

Business agency data show that, in the upstream products of polyaluminum chloride, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China continued to decline slightly in the first half of September. On the 26th of last month, the quotation of hydrochloric acid dropped by more than 5% to 300 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of this month, some manufacturers have lowered their prices for many times. Up to now, the cumulative price has been reduced by about 40 yuan / ton. Now, the comprehensive price in North China is about 282.50 yuan / ton. The upstream liquid chlorine Market of hydrochloric acid is temporarily stable, the cost support is general, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises is increasing, and now it is easy to make poison, and it is difficult to handle the procedures. The supply of hydrochloric acid is relatively tight, and the downstream enterprises have a good purchasing enthusiasm. However, the by-product acid continues to impact the market, and the hydrochloric acid delivery pressure is large. Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Downstream of polyaluminum chloride: the role of jinjiuyinshi in the traditional sales peak season has not been clearly reflected in the downstream purchase of polyaluminum chloride. However, due to the adjustment of the cost and price of various raw materials, some manufacturers have slightly increased the quotation for new customers, but rarely changed the quotations for old customers.

In terms of the industry, the demand of water treatment industry should enter the peak season in September. Environmental protection, temperature and other factors have a great impact on the follow-up market of the industry. The prices of calcium powder and other raw materials of some enterprises have increased, but the price of hydrochloric acid as raw material has also decreased slightly. These factors comprehensively affect the market.

With regard to the future market, the business agency analyzed that under the influence of the “golden nine silver decade” and subsequent temperature and environmental protection, the market expected that the water treatment market would rise. The future trend of polyaluminum chloride will be stable and bullish, but the range and speed may not be particularly dazzling.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 16th, the nickel price dropped slightly. The spot nickel price was 119300 yuan / ton, down 0.22% from the previous day, 14.76% year-on-year and 4.9% higher than the beginning of the year. Shanghai nickel’s main market opened at 118900 yuan, and the price fluctuated slightly after the opening, closing at 117540 yuan, down 1.05%. LME3 closed at $15260, up 0.13%. Shanghai nickel’s main market opened at 118900 yuan, and the price fluctuated slightly after the opening, closing at 117540 yuan, down 1.05%. LME3 closed at $15260, up 0.13%.

2、 Market analysis

The nickel price has been adjusted due to the drag of the external environment. The domestic nickel ore at the supply end is tight, and the price of ferronickel remains stable. The profit of domestic ferronickel plants is near the profit and loss. Due to the shortage of raw materials, some ferronickel plants have passively reduced production. Indonesian ferronickel has been put into production in a centralized manner, and there may be more increments in the future, and the overall supply environment tends to be relaxed. The Philippines was seriously affected by the epidemic, and the price of ferronickel rose, and the production cost of nickel enterprises was higher. In the near future, the price of downstream stainless steel has maintained a short-term adjustment stage, and the domestic demand for new energy vehicles is gradually recovering, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe is growing rapidly.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: nickel price will be adjusted by the external environment in the short term, but the overall strong trend remains unchanged.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA spot market price rose slightly on September 16, with an average price of 3503 yuan / ton on the spot market on that day, up 0.30% compared with the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 33.31%. PTA main futures (2101) closed up and closed at 3660, up 22% or 0.60% from the previous trading day.

Recent changes of PTA plant in China

Production enterprise unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit operation status

Ningbo Yisheng 220 was shut down for maintenance on September 3 for two weeks, and it is planned to restart in the evening of September 16, which remains to be noticed

Huabin Petrochemical 140 reduced the load by 50% on September 16, which is expected to maintain for one week

Hailun Petrochemical 120 was overhauled on August 2 and is scheduled to restart at the end of September

Yizheng Chemical fiber 65 is planned to be overhauled for about 10 days in October

Yadong petrochemical company plans to overhaul about 2 weeks in mid November

Hanbang Petrochemical 220 plans to overhaul for one month on September 30

In terms of PTA plant, Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million ton PTA plant began to reduce its load by 50% today (September 16) and overhaul the other half of its production capacity, which is expected to maintain for about a week, and PTA prices have been supported to some extent. However, Eason Ningbo 2.2 million tons PTA plant is about to restart, new capacity is also planned to be put into operation, and the surplus is expected to continue to exert pressure.

In the raw material market, the hurricane affected the crude oil rebound, which was beneficial to the market mentality. As of September 16, the international crude oil WTI closed at $38.28/barrel, up $1.02/barrel compared with the previous trading day; Brent closed at $40.53/barrel, up $0.92/barrel compared with the previous trading day. Dongying Weilian’s 1 million T / a PX new equipment was put into production on September 15, and the load is steadily increasing. It is expected that the PX market price will be weak in the short term.

The overall production and sales of polyester downstream are difficult to sustain. The production and sales of mainstream large polyester filament factories are 50% – 70%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 110%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 33-43 days, of which POY inventory is 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-34 days, and DTY inventory is about 31-43 days. The price quoted by the factory is basically stable, and the discount is cancelled, among which polyester POY (150D / 48F) is quoted as 5000-5250 yuan / ton.

In recent years, some fabrics in the terminal traditional textile market have become smooth, and the transaction of polyester brocade and brocade cotton creative fashion fabrics has been gradually promoted. The spot transaction styles of middle and high-grade varieties have increased, and the subscription is mainly in small batches and varieties. The overall market trend is partial smooth, and the market confidence is gradually restored. The orders of textile enterprises are gradually improving, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is maintained at 7 More than 3%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the PTA cost side is supported by the rise of crude oil, but some of its own units are planned to restart, and the downstream polyester production and sales are poor, the market atmosphere is flat, and whether the terminal consumption capacity can continue to improve remains to be seen. It is expected that the short-term PTA market will be weak, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the changes in crude oil and units.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 15, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6016 yuan / ton. Compared with September 7, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 183 yuan / ton, or 3.14%; compared with September 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 316 yuan / ton, or 5.56%.

Multiple benefits push forward the transaction center of n-butanol

In the first week of September, the domestic n-butanol market has risen steadily. The high price of propylene gives support to the cost of n-butanol. The downstream replenishment of n-butanol was good, the market trading atmosphere turned better, and the transaction focus moved up. As of September 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 5766 yuan / ton, which was increased by 66 yuan / ton or 1.17% compared with September 1.

Since last week, driven by multiple positive, the domestic n-butanol market as a whole rose. In terms of cost, the raw material propylene continued to rise at the beginning of the month to give support, and the pressure on the cost of n-butanol continued to increase, and the quoted price of the factory moved up accordingly. On the supply side, in September, some factories stopped for maintenance and the cost pressure was small, and some factories reduced the operating rate. In addition, the recent shortage of shipping port deliveries and the overall low spot stock of n-butanol market gave the operators confidence in price support. In terms of demand, timely replenishment was made to downstream users, and the upstream and downstream market conducted well. The secondary suppliers led the market offer to maintain firm, and the transaction center kept moving upward.

On the 15th, affected by the pre holiday preparation and tight supply, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol market was raised again, and the low price offer was gradually reduced. The price of butanol in the vicinity of 200-100 tons was generally raised by domestic manufacturers. At present, Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory offer reference 6050 yuan / ton, increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with September 8; Luxi Chemical’s ex factory quotation of n-butanol refers to 6000 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with September 8. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol is 6016 yuan / ton, which is 316 yuan / ton higher than that on September 1, up 5.56%.

The market price of n-butanol in some parts of China is attached (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Product name up and down on 9 / 8 / 9 / 15

N-butanol in East China

South China 6300 6500 + 200

6000 6000 in North China

Upstream, on September 14, the propylene market price in Shandong kept rising. According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene broke through the cyclical fluctuation range at the beginning of last month, and began to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the market fluctuation was small. However, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range is getting bigger and bigger. Up to the 4th, the price of propylene has risen by 300 yuan / ton. From the 7th to 10th, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton, and then slightly stabilized. Since the 13th, the price has risen again. Today, the price has risen by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is between 7100 yuan / ton and 7400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7250 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers’ shipment has improved.

If the demand will weaken, short-term n-butanol or high-level finishing operation

As far as the current situation is concerned, the pressure on the cost side of n-butanol is not reduced, the mentality of the factories to support the market is still obvious, and the probability of short-term decline is small. However, it is expected that the market demand will weaken after the end of the downstream pre Festival stock up. In the follow-up, it is mainly to store goods at the early stage of consumption, with less large orders entering the market. Generally speaking, the analysts of n-butanol in the business club believe that the trend of n-butanol in the future is mainly high-level sorting operation.

Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the quotation of o-benzene contract was stable in September. As of September 15, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month, and the market of o-xylene is temporarily stable.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that in September, the price of mixed xylene, raw material of o-xylene, rose first and then fell, the price of mixed xylene rose by 2.55%, the cost of o-xylene rose slightly, and the price of mixed xylene decreased, indicating that the growth trend of mixed xylene was insufficient and the support for the rise of o-xylene was weak.

From the WTI crude oil price trend chart, we can see that the crude oil market fell sharply in September, and the crude oil price fell, which was bad for the downstream industry chain market. The rise of the cost of o-benzene was not enough support, and the downward pressure was increased, and the market situation of o-benzene was negative.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the phthalic anhydride market rose slightly in September, with the phthalic anhydride price increasing by 4.9%, and the phthalic anhydride market rose slightly, which was beneficial to the o-benzene market, and the downstream demand of o-phthalic anhydride recovered. However, due to the small increase of phthalic anhydride, the good support for o-benzene was insufficient, and the driving force for the rise of phthalic anhydride price was insufficient.

Future forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business agency, believes that the price of o-benzene raw materials rose slightly in September, but the sharp drop of crude oil price has a big negative effect on the downstream industry chain market. In the downstream of o-benzene, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the driving force of phthalic anhydride rise is insufficient, which has limited positive effect on the market of o-xylene. On the whole, the rising power of o-benzene market is insufficient, and the falling risk is high. It is expected that the sentiment of o-benzene bank in the future market will not be able to rise and the falling risk will be greater.

Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell first and then rose in September. As of September 15, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted was 5562.50 yuan / ton, down 2.84% from 5725.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 8.22% lower than that of the same period last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price that the price of acetic acid rose in September, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol market rose in September, the methanol price rose in shock, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased, and the market of acetic anhydride was favorable.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, in September, with the resumption of operation of acetic anhydride enterprises, the operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises increased, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. The prices of raw materials acetic acid and methanol both rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride market increased, and the support for the rise of acetic anhydride market was strengthened; for the downstream, the downstream market of acetic anhydride slowly recovered, and the demand rose, which was good for the future market of acetic anhydride. Moreover, the overall operating rate of domestic acetic anhydride enterprises was slightly insufficient, and the inventory of acetic anhydride enterprises was low, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising was increased. Overall, the future market of acetic anhydride slightly in short supply, acetic anhydride cost pressure is large, future market acetic anhydride rise support is sufficient, acetic anhydride rise pressure is large.

According to the data, the natural rubber commodity index on September 14 was 34.00, up 0.3 points compared with yesterday, 66.00% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 24.63% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in the first half of September 2020

According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on September 1, and 11551.25 yuan / ton on September 14, a half month decrease of 2.05%. Among them, the highest point in the first half of the month is 11792 yuan / ton on the first day, and the lowest point is about 11252.5 yuan / ton on the 10th day, and the maximum amplitude is also 4.58%. This half month is a very typical downward trend of shock.

Rubber production at home and abroad: in 2020, due to the special situation, epidemic situation, weather and other factors, the production of raw materials at home and abroad will be released slowly, so it is inevitable to reduce production. Under the situation that the demand for natural rubber is relatively good, the tight raw materials are the main reason for the price increase, while other factors such as weather also have certain impact on the price of natural rubber. Thai media reported on September 5 that the price of Thailand’s three-level cigarette adhesive (RSS3) exceeded 60 baht / kg in the previous week, the highest price in three years. At the press conference held by Zhu Lin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce of Thailand on September 9, Zhu Lin talked about the good export situation of Thailand’s cassava, rubber, corn and palm oil During the epidemic period, the global demand for rubber gloves increased, which led to the increase of latex sales. In addition, the geographical conditions of other producing countries, such as rainstorm weather, labor shortage, etc., as well as the internal factors in Thailand, especially the positive measures taken by the government, can help to increase the price of rubber. As the largest natural rubber producer in the world, Thailand’s rubber output in 2019 is 4.8 million tons, of which the rubber export volume is about 4 million tons. The change of raw rubber output and export directly affects the global natural rubber price. From the perspective of China’s domestic regions, the current rainy season has affected the tapping work and seriously affected the output; local traders said that the rubber warehouses in Kunming and Banna of Yunnan Province were basically empty, and the index rubber entered the market at the beginning of the month. The local rubber source tension was serious and sustained, and currently only the index glue was used to maintain the trade market.

Import and inventory: in terms of import, in August 2020, China imported 699000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), with a year-on-year increase of 30%; from January to August, China imported 4.508 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8.2% compared with 4.166 million tons in the same period of 2019. In terms of inventory, as of September 11, 2020, the natural rubber inventory of the Institute was 245850 tons, and warehouse receipts were 215210 tons, increasing 4018 tons and 1720 tons respectively; the inventory of No. 20 rubber was 38305 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 31490 tons, increasing by 1976 tons and 1613 tons respectively.

Downstream demand: first of all, as of September 11, 2020, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 74.52%, which was 2.71 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. Second, the car sales volume increased moderately. China Automobile Industry Association released the production and sales situation of automobile industry in August 2020 on August 10. In August, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.119 million and 2.186 million, respectively, with a 3.7% month on month decrease in output and a 3.5% increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 11.6% respectively. From January to August, China’s automobile production and sales were 14.432 million and 14.551 million, respectively, down 9.6% and 9.7% year-on-year. Compared with January July, the decline rates were 2.2% and 3.0% respectively. In August, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell 128000 vehicles of various types, with a month on month decline of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 75%. On September 8, the passenger Federation announced the production and sales of passenger cars in August. The data showed that the production of narrow passenger cars in August was 1.644 million units, down 0.2% year-on-year; the retail sales volume was 1.703 million units, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year; the wholesale sales volume was 1.736 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0%. The data shows that the prosperity of China’s automobile industry is growing year-on-year, while the month on month is declining. That is to say, the demand growth of the automobile industry is moderate and not completely in a boom state. Third, the prices of natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and other tire raw materials rose several times in the third quarter, and the cost increased. Some tire enterprises raised their prices in line with the trend, which promoted the upward trend of tire prices.

Good for the industry: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream price of domestic natural rubber day fluctuated and decreased in the first half of September, which was mainly affected by the downward price of latex Market in Thailand and other countries and the current low macroeconomic situation. Recently, the governments of major foreign producing countries have made a lot of noise, hoping to stabilize rubber prices and promote rubber export.

Thailand: according to Thai media on September 13, in view of the recent domestic rubber price decline, the natural rubber administration of Thailand quickly held an emergency response meeting to calm the rubber farmers’ sentiment, saying that from the perspective of supply and demand, the future market of rubber prices is optimistic, and China’s demand for Thai rubber is still very strong. Officials of the Thailand Bureau of rubber administration believe that the price drop during the long holidays in September should be an intraday adjustment of prices, not a price crackdown. Because rubber prices have been rising continuously for a period of time, this adjustment may pave the way for the next round of rise. From the perspective of supply and demand and market price trend, it is still rising. In addition, luckchai kittipol, honorary president of the Thai Rubber Association, said he was more optimistic about the future of rubber, as the price of RSS3 rubber reached 60 baht per kilogram for the first time in more than a decade. In the past, Thailand’s rubber production was mainly concentrated in RSS grade rubber, which was used as a raw material for car tires, he said. The novel coronavirus pneumonia has driven the surge in demand for rubber gloves in recent years, driving rubber producers to transfer their production to latex for rubber gloves. Thailand’s latex production is expected to account for 30% of total rubber production this year, up from 20% last year. Luckchai kittipol said that domestic rubber consumption is expected to increase from 800000 tons in 2019 to 900000 tons as Thailand’s Ministry of transport has decided to use natural rubber to set up obstacles on roads nationwide. It is suggested that the government should further promote the consumption of natural rubber in order to maintain the domestic price and reduce the excessive dependence on export. At present, the proportion of rubber export in the total output is as high as 80%.

Malaysia: China novel coronavirus pneumonia is reported in September 14th. The Dewan Negara said today that since the beginning of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has affected the global market demand, especially the demand of China. The government will concentrate on stabilizing the price of rubber and increasing its added value. “Malaysia,” the report said. “The new price of the brand is affected by the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in September 14th. II Datuk Seri Dr wee Jeck Seng, Deputy Minister of plantation industry and commodities, said the government was cooperating with the world’s major rubber producers, namely Thailand and Indonesia, to strengthen and stabilize rubber prices in the international market under the framework of the international tripartite rubber Council (ITRC). Wee said the government plans to increase the use of rubber in the country, boosting rubber prices in the medium to long term. These include the use of rubber in road construction and the production of new and value-added products based on rubber, including rubber gloves. He added that the government would also introduce the concept of rubber community farms to increase the supply of raw materials and generate additional income for small farmers through cash crops and animal husbandry. He said that the government planned to implement the latex corridor in the eastern region to obtain local latex products to support the development of latex products manufacturing industry, increase the income of small rubber farmers and increase the consumption of natural rubber in the tire industry.

EU: on September 3, the EU updated its list of key raw materials (the original version of CRM list 2020), and listed natural rubber as one of the biological materials as a key material. Natural rubber is an indispensable raw material for European tire and rubber industry, and also a key driving force for many industries (especially automobile industry). The tire industry alone absorbs about 76% of all natural rubber produced worldwide. Today, there is no alternative to natural rubber for all rubber trees currently in use. The list of key raw materials reconfirmed the priority of natural rubber in EU policy and the importance of ensuring a fair and sustainable supply of natural rubber to European industry. It also provides further support for ongoing industry research on alternative sources of natural rubber. This is the second time that the EU has listed natural rubber as an important raw material.

As for the future market, the business agency believes that the natural rubber price is currently in the best sales period of the year. However, due to the continuous rise of natural rubber before, the first half of this month is in the period of price adjustment. For the traditional consumption peak season of “gold nine silver ten”, the market still thinks that the future natural rubber is still in the rising market. In the case of tight raw materials in Southeast Asia and almost no new rubber in domestic production areas, especially in Banna, which can only be maintained by the index rubber, the natural rubber price will inevitably rise in the peak sales season and the demand is moderately good. However, due to the limited demand in the European and American markets, the domestic export volume is hindered, and the driving force of natural rubber’s big rise is weakened. In the future, the market remains cautious and multi perspective.