According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on September 24 was 396.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 6.33% compared with the average price of 423.60 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (9.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 15.84%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 19.61%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g , down 11.43%.

On September 24, the average price of silver market was 4837.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 22.44% compared with the early average price of 6237 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (September 1); compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 4281.67 yuan / kg, up 10.54%; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 64.40%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 27.89%.

Silver 3 in a row plummeted, spot short more than doubled

Before the start of silver price slump, the author was bearish at 5764 yuan / kg average price in the simulated account of Shanghai Stock Exchange. This week, silver plummeted for three consecutive times, and the simulated fund of the account has more than doubled

According to business agency data, the average price of silver on September 24 was 4837.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 16.19% compared with the average price of 5772 yuan / kg in the spot market on September 18

Influencing factors of recent news

1. The US dollar index strengthened, reaching a 2-month high

2. Worries about the second overseas epidemic and the US financial deadlock continue

Capital factor

Silver with strong commodity attributes suffered panic selling, and the position of iShares silver trust, the world’s largest silver, decreased by 63.68 tons compared with the previous day, and the current position was 17214.03 tons.

Future forecast

It is expected that the price of precious metals will continue to be weak in the near future.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the melamine market has been running steadily, with the market price rising steadily on September 23. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of September 23, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5600 yuan / ton, which was 1.82% higher than the beginning of the week (September 21) and 1.20% higher than that of August 23. Downstream enterprises replenish before the festival, the market atmosphere is OK, and the price center of gravity moves up steadily. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 5500 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is around 4700 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is around 5300 yuan / ton.

Upstream urea, September 23, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts in the business agency believe that the current upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost side has a certain support, enterprises orderly implement the early orders, it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be mainly stable.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market is stronger in mid September, and all models of products have a certain increase. As of September 22, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 20500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.77% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

The domestic prices of adipic acid in the upstream of PA66 have been stable in recent years, and the quotations of dealers in some regions have risen slightly. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable for the time being, and the normal operating rate of the device is about 80%. At present, the downstream demand is relatively weak, the market is in a state of oversupply, and there is inventory pressure of adipic acid. The cost side of pure benzene showed a trend of high level and slow decline in recent years, and its support to the downstream adipic acid was general. On the whole, the market is still in a weak stable pattern. At the same time, due to inventory pressure and weak demand, the current price is unable to rise or fall temporarily. It is not ruled out that prices will continue to fall.

The upstream adipic acid generally supports the cost of PA66. In the middle of this month, the domestic spot price of PA66 continued to rise in the first ten days of this month, and the increase further expanded. At present, the operating rate of PA66 in China remains low, with little change. The supply level in the market is still tight. In addition, it is the traditional peak season of PA66. Although the replenishment operation of downstream factories maintains the just needed goods, the domestic consumption of PA66 has increased, and the overall terminal demand has recovered. Business shipment situation is fair, PA66 is expected to continue the strong trend.

Business agency analysts believe that: in mid September, domestic PA66 market continued to be strong trend. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable and small, which supports the cost of PA66. Downstream factory inquiry and procurement to maintain just need operation, order follow-up has become warmer. At present, the market supply is still tight, and it is expected that the market of PA66 will continue to be stronger in the short term.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (September 23): 8780 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 8780 yuan / ton on the 23rd, up 0.46% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene has continued to rise, and the cost has been pushed up. According to the business agency, the current butadiene price is 6257 yuan / ton, which is 10.31 yuan higher than 5612 yuan / ton in early September. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, in August 2020, the domestic output of rubber tire outer tire was 77.104 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; in the first ten days of September 2020, the automobile output of 11 key enterprises reached 729000, with a year-on-year increase of 17%.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price shocks and falls, together with the foreign epidemic situation rebound situation aggravating, will cast a shadow on the future economy. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise and fall back slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, as of September 23, the average price of R22 was 14833.33 yuan / ton, down 6.32% compared with the beginning of the month, 10.64% on month, and 2.2% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, as of September 23, the average price of R134a refrigerant was 15566.67 yuan / ton, 3.32% compared with the beginning of the month, 5.66% lower on a month basis, and 38.15% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the refrigerant market was uncertain, the demand was weak, the market transaction was weak, and the various refrigerant market continued to be low, the market lacked obvious positive signals, and the attitude of the industry was negative. This month R134a rose sharply, prices hit the bottom rebound, and the favorable day drop prompted the R134a center of gravity to move up slightly. R22 enterprises are weak in price, and they have been down significantly. At present, the refrigerant export is not smooth, the downstream air conditioning output is low, and the demand is scarce. With the weather turning cold, the demand is even more frosty. The manufacturers are under pressure on the delivery. The traders are cautious to watch and see that the weak situation of refrigerant is difficult to change.

R134a, in September, trichloroethylene, raw material, rose suddenly. R134 was supported by cost, and the price hit the bottom and rebounded. The total monthly increase was 3.32. Taking Dongyue, Shandong Province as an example, the price at the beginning of the month was 15000 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was increased to 16000 yuan / T, and the monthly price rose by 1000 yuan. Other enterprises increased to different degrees. Although R134a has cost driven, it has poor demand, dealers are cautious to wait and see, there is not much replenishment, and there are plans for new capacity entering the market. The market competition is fierce. Some enterprises have the phenomenon of cost reverse shipment to maintain old customers, and the market is not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of September 23, the main manufacturers price of R134a market of refrigerant was about 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and the center of business was slightly moved up.

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 in September dropped. Raw materials fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and chloroform prices have declined to varying degrees, and the cost side support is insufficient. Although R22 has quota support, it is hindered by demand, the firm price of the manufacturer is weak, the quotation begins to loosen, and the market returns to the buyer’s leading position. Affected by new energy efficiency, the demand of R22 is reduced, traders are more cautious in hoarding, few replenishments, insufficient market gas, and insufficient confidence of the industry. As of September 23, the price of the mainstream manufacturers in the refrigerant R22 market was about 13500-16500 yuan / ton, and the price was steadily and quietly decreased.

Upstream hydrofluoric acid, September 23, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The factory price of the in-house merchants remained stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers started at a normal rate, the supply of goods in the site was normal, and affected by the stable fluorite price, but the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand, and the site price in the later period was expected to be kept low.

The price of methane chloride Market in Shandong Province is up, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2490-2540 yuan / T, and the mainstream price of trichloromethane market is about 1900 yuan / T, and it is expected to adjust in a short period of time. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which supports the price of methane chloride better; the overall demand for downstream market is not good and the support is insufficient.

3、 Post market forecast

Refrigerant analysts of business agency believe that in September, the refrigerant market was weak, R134a price rose, the market transaction atmosphere was poor, the price rise lacked actual driving force, and it is expected that the weak and stable in the short term; the demand for R22 is weak, the manufacturer is generally shipped, the traders’ stock enthusiasm is not high, the price is clearly stable and the price is down, and it is expected that the weak maintenance will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of ethyl acetate in East China is strong and upward. As of September 22, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5720 yuan / ton, 2.1% higher than the average price of 5602 yuan / ton in East China at the beginning of the month, and 1.37% higher than the same period of last month.

At present, the overall domestic ethyl acetate Market is stable and firm, and the enterprises start their business smoothly. The downstream and traders have basically completed the stock preparation before the festival. The large orders are less, and the small orders are more than zero. The raw materials acetic acid and ethanol have shown strong performance recently, and the cost support of ethyl acetate is good. At present, it is about 5750 yuan / ton in East China, 5650 yuan / ton in North China and 6100 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the shutdown and load reduction of acetic acid production enterprises and the low inventory of the industry led to the tight spot supply in the market, and the downstream and traders’ stock preparation was basically completed, which is expected to be stable and stable in a short time. The ethanol market is stable and strong. The raw corn is affected by the bad weather and typhoon, which will have a certain negative impact on the listing of new grain. Recently, the ethanol production enterprises in Northeast China have successively planned to repair and repair, so the supply may be reduced to a certain extent, and it will be strong in a short time.

The international market price of ethyl acetate is stable and firm. At present, the port price of European market is about 750 euro / ton, and that of North American market is about 640-690 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, the domestic downstream market of ethyl acetate is mainly based on digestion contract, the transaction of new orders is limited, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure is not big, and the operation is strong in a short period of time.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 22, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5283.33 yuan / ton, and the price of mainstream manufacturers was around 5250-5350 yuan / ton. The market of polyester bottle chip in South China was in a weak position, with the mainstream price of 5000-5100 yuan / ton.

Pet market is weak, market negotiation focus is weak, downstream cautious wait-and-see demand is poor, the number of new orders is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is low, and just need procurement is the main. At present, the polyester bottle pieces in East China are running at a low level, and the current quotations of mainstream manufacturers are around 5250-5300 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation price in South China is 5000-5100 yuan / ton. At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5300 yuan / ton, and that of Guangdong is 5300 yuan / ton Taibao 5300 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5250 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5250 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5300 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment is smooth and the inventory is general.

The upstream PTA market is weak in operation, the cost side support is general, and the just needed procurement is given priority to, and the negotiation atmosphere is dull.

On September 21, PTA commodity index was 34.13, down 0.22 points compared with yesterday, 67.16% lower than 103.92 points (2011-09-15), and 13.43% higher than the lowest point of 30.09 points on April 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The chemical index on September 22 was 731, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 28.05% lower than 1016 (2012-03-13), and 22.24% higher than 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analyst of business agency thinks: pet market runs smoothly in the short term, and the focus of negotiation is low. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market fluctuated and fell in mid September, and the spot prices of various brands declined. As of September 22, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 10650.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.18% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam upstream of PA6, some caprolactam enterprises resumed production recently, and the spot supply increased. The domestic caprolactam price fell in mid September. As of September 22, the average ex factory price of caprolactam was about 9516.67 yuan / ton. Upstream pure benzene continued to hold a rigid consolidation in the early middle of the middle of the year, and then with the rise of crude oil, the price center of gravity rose. Moreover, the market supply of some hydrogenated benzene units was improved due to the maintenance of some hydrogenated benzene units. In addition, the downstream began to prepare goods before the festival, and the enterprise inventory decreased. It is expected that caprolactam market will decline steadily in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to terminal demand.

In mid September, the market of PA6 was down, and the price of upstream lactam fell. The recent trend of far upstream crude oil declined, and the support of cost side weakened. In addition, the global public health events have a rebound trend, the overall performance of the external market is negative, and the market lacks good news. The demand level of PA6 chips is general, and the consumption of downstream factories is not high. Although the overall operating rate of nylon filament has increased in recent years, the overall demand is weak, and most of the goods are prepared to cover positions at low prices, and the transaction of high price chips is not good. The market mentality is negative, the business confidence is insufficient, in the middle of September, the profits will be sold.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: China’s PA6 market weakened in September, the spot prices of various brands mainly fell. The price of caprolactam in the upstream fell, and the cost side support of PA6 weakened. Downstream factories take goods just need to operate, the operation tends to buy on bargain. Business mentality is not strong, the operation of the real single to let profit go. PA6 market is expected to be affected by multiple bearish in the near future, or will continue the weak trend.

The phenol Market is up 100-150 yuan / ton in a narrow range.

At present, the mainstream factories offer 5300 yuan / ton, and the market offer is pushed up to 5450 yuan / ton. The rising sentiment of the shipowners is not abating, and the offer continues to pull up. The current factory offer is 5300-5400 yuan / ton, and the offer in East China is also about 5400-5450 yuan / ton. Downstream inquiry is cautious, and the actual transaction still needs to be followed up. From the perspective of downstream, the market of bisphenol A is stuck at a high level, which has risen to 12700-12900 / T through negotiation, which has reached the highest level in the year. It plays a supporting role for the upstream phenol. It is estimated that the reference offer of phenol Market is 5400-5450 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, the quotations for acetone in the national markets were as follows:

Regional price rise and fall

East China 5450 100

5400 50 in Shandong Province

The area around Yanshan mountain is 5400 50

South China 5450 150

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 21, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7033.33 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market price was high and firm, and the market went up. Compared with the same period last month, the price was up by 10.47%, 3.94% compared with the beginning of September, and 3.94% higher than that of the same period last week, with an increase of 300 yuan / ton.

This week, the DMF market showed an upward trend. The downstream demand increased, the shipment was smooth, the replenishment was positive, the center of gravity was firm, and the high level was moved up. As of September 21, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 7100 yuan / T, Zhangqiu Riyue 7000 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 7000 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 7000 yuan / T, East China market 7700-7900 yuan / T, South China market 7900-8100 yuan / T.

Upstream methanol just needs to purchase, high-level operation, strong price, limited orders.

The chemical index on September 21 was 730 points, up 3 points compared with yesterday, 28.15% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 22.07% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the DMF market is running at a high level, mainly digesting the early growth. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)