According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 27, the comprehensive price of PC market was 15000 yuan / T, and the price of domestic PC market was up, and the negotiation atmosphere was positive. Compared with the same period last week, the price of PC increased by 3.21% and 5.39% compared with the same period of last month, showing an overall upward trend.

The domestic PC market has been running steadily, and the market has recovered steadily. Merchants are actively shipping and the price is mainly stable. The price in South China is 15000-16450 yuan / ton, and the medium and high price is between 16000 and 18000 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere of PC is good, and the rising trend is maintained in the short term. The latest prices of enterprises are: Luxi Chemical 14800 yuan / T, Lihua yiweiyuan 14200 yuan / T, Shanghai Kesi 15800 yuan / T, with smooth shipment and normal supply.

The overall market price of bisphenol in the upstream market was in a downward trend, and the support of PC cost side was weakened.

On September 27, the rubber and plastic index was 645 points, unchanged with yesterday, 39.15% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 22.16% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency PC analysts believe: in the short term, the PC market is expected to digest the early growth, focusing on stable operation. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Zinc price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring: zinc prices continue to fall this week, the zinc market is lower. As of September 27, the average price of zinc was 19570.00 yuan / ton, down from 20493.33 yuan / ton on September 21 at the beginning of the week, with a decrease of 4.51% this week and a year-on-year increase of 3.36%.

Zinc price in LME Market

From the trend chart of zinc price in LME market, it can be seen that the international zinc market is lower this week, and the zinc price continues to decline. The decline of international zinc market is bad for domestic zinc market, and the downward pressure of domestic zinc market is increasing.

New global epidemic data

It can be seen from the new data of the epidemic situation that the data of newly confirmed cases in recent years has continued to rise, which has hindered enterprises from returning to production and work, and seriously affected the global economic recovery. The economic recovery is slow, the demand for zinc market is slow, the demand for zinc market is negative, and the downward pressure of zinc market is greater.

Analysis, review and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, said: the prices of Lunzhou zinc and Shanghai zinc both fell by more than 5% this week, and the zinc price fell sharply, indicating that the recent weak zinc market and the lack of expectation of zinc market demand may be the main reason for the continuous decline of zinc price in the near future. Recently, the new data of foreign epidemic situation is still high, and there is a trend of “new high”, which has formed a major blow to the current global resumption of production and work. The global economic recovery is delayed, and the zinc market’s demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline. With the US election approaching, investors are nervous, investors are cautious about market fluctuations, and their risk aversion is high. Stock markets in many countries are falling and stock markets are falling, which is a drag on period Commodity zinc market fell, on the spot zinc price market negative. Generally speaking, the panic psychology in the zinc market is big, which drags down the price of zinc ingots. It is expected that the future zinc market will fluctuate lower.

According to the business agency monitoring: hydrogen peroxide in September ended the downturn in August and ushered in a big rise. In the first half of the month, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been soaring, with the increase of 18.35%. In the second half of the month, the market gradually stabilized, and the price remained stable, with a slight correction. At the beginning of September, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 926 yuan / ton. On September 27, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1090 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 17.63%.

Let’s specifically analyze the reasons for the rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide in September 2020

In the first half of September, the market of terminal caprolactam rose due to the shortage of supply due to the equipment maintenance of pure benzene manufacturers. In addition, September was the traditional peak season for hydrogen peroxide consumption, and the terminal demand was boosted. The price of hydrogen peroxide has been rising all the time. The price of hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 7% in the first week and continued to increase in the second week. As of September 13, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1096 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 18%.

In the second half of the month, due to the hydrogen peroxide market rose too fast in the early stage, the enthusiasm for terminal procurement declined. After the hydrogen peroxide surge, a small callback was successively ushered in, and the overall situation was still stable. As of September 27, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1090 yuan / ton, which was about 1% lower than that on September 13.

According to the rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from 2019 to August 2020, it can be seen that the rise of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, the price of hydrogen peroxide is rising from February to may, and increases sharply in August and October. In 2020, the performance is flat, basically falling, and only in June it rose by more than 30%. 7. Hydrogen peroxide was in decline in August, and the terminal demand turned better in September, and the manufacturers collectively rose sharply. Only then did hydrogen peroxide usher in the rise again.

Hydrogen peroxide analysts in the business club believe that: gold nine has arrived, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have to stop for maintenance, supply is tight, and silver 10 is still available.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On September 25, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will stabilize, with the overall range of 12300-12550 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12300-12400 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12400-12450 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 12400-12550 yuan / ton; Ningxia area is 12350-12400 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 25th was 12350 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.76% compared with the average price of 12700 yuan / ton at the beginning of September (9.1), and 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of September (1.1), a decrease of 12.82%. After autumn, the price of magnesium ingot began to stabilize and recover slightly.

The output of magnesium decreased by 3.66% in July before the low price of magnesium

According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to July 2020, China’s Communist magnesium reached 465400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66%.

Among them, the total production of Shaanxi Province was 306500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.85%;

The total production of Shanxi Province was 62700 tons, down 16.91% year on year;

Ningxia produced 27700 tons, up 6.52% year on year;

The total production in Xinjiang was 22100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.09%;

Liaoning Province produced 21000 tons, down 14.69% year on year;

Henan Province produced 14300 tons, down 6.31% year on year;

The cumulative production of Inner Mongolia was 10100 tons, down 11.77% year on year;

Shandong Province has a total production of 0600 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 16.40%;

The total production of Hebei Province was 0.021 million tons, up 67.19% year on year.

Supply and demand side impact factors move down, cost side impact factors rise

In the early stage, the market price of magnesium ingot dropped to 12100 yuan / ton, and the profit margin of magnesium enterprises fell to the limit. Based on the consideration of cost factors, domestic mainstream manufacturers have a sharp increase in willingness to support prices, and the influence of cost factors on prices is gradually enlarged, which is different from that when there is profit

According to statistics, the price of domestic ammonium nitrate continued to rise this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2630 yuan / ton, 1.94% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 24.25% higher than that at the beginning of the week. On September 25, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 138.42, up 2.63 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, and 78.91% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

In the near future, the price of ammonium nitrate plant in the market has been improved, and the price of ammonium nitrate plant in the domestic market has been on the rise. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2900-3000 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 1516.67 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry quoted 1500 yuan / ton, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1450 yuan / ton, Shandong helitai quoted 1750 yuan / ton. The quotation of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance equipment has been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the situation of on-site delivery has improved, the price trend of nitric acid in the field is temporarily stable, the price fluctuation of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is rising.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia is temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 3100 yuan / ton. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant is normal, the spot supply is normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market is stable. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of the liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are still in the maintenance period. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain stable in the near future. However, with the large plants in Shandong Province returning to work in the later stage, the ammonia volume will gradually accumulate, the upstream liquid ammonia market price will remain volatile, and the market price of ammonium nitrate will rise.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is tight, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the future.

Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, entering the late September, the ABS market trend is strong, most of the spot prices in the market fluctuate and rise. As of September 25, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14950.00 yuan / ton, which was 1.01% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In recent years, ABS upstream styrene, domestic styrene prices have been fluctuating since the beginning of the month. In terms of inventory, it is reported that there is a slight increase in both mainstream and social commodity inventories. However, the recent arrival of styrene in the port is less, and the domestic factory inventory is declining, and the styrene digestion is expected to be better. The recent trend of the far end cost end crude oil is not ideal, coupled with the severe overseas epidemic situation, which continues to restrain the demand expectations, the bulk commodities generally declined. The downstream consumption increased, the demand improved, and there was just a need to support the price of styrene. But the inventory is still at a historical high, there is pressure on the styrene market. The market is expected to remain deadlocked in the short term.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the domestic acrylonitrile market was positive last month, and the market continued to be strong this month. Recently, the domestic market is stable and small. On the cost side, the current price is high and stable, with strong support for acrylonitrile. In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of acrylic fiber industry may be difficult to maintain, and there is a contradiction between supply and demand in the field. Overseas market is due to reduced supply and the market has risen, there is a certain support for the domestic market. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will stabilize temporarily in the near future.

The domestic market of butadiene has a strong performance in recent years. The price of butadiene is stable at the beginning of the month, and the market is obviously rising in the middle of the month, and still rising in the last ten days. The strong performance of the internal and external market in the month was favorable to the continuous rise of domestic spot. The downstream synthetic rubber vibrates at high level, and its support to butadiene is acceptable. In terms of supply, although it has increased in the last ten days, the overall supply of domestic production enterprises remains tight, and Sinopec’s supply price continues to rise. The market went up rapidly, and the downstream demand side took goods on demand. The atmosphere of market prudence gradually rose, and merchants went with the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be adjusted mainly in the near future.

In late September, the domestic ABS market offers big stable small movements, high finishing. The shortage of domestic ABS spot supply has not improved. As the holidays are approaching, downstream factories are actively hoarding goods. On the contrary, there is a shortage of goods in the theater. Overseas continued to be affected by public health events, crude oil and futures trend is not positive, has a certain suppression effect on ABS market, aggravate the market wait-and-see mentality. Businesses are temporarily stable, due to the replenishment before the festival, the atmosphere of trading has also warmed up.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: the recent ABS market high stable, the price of each brand is mainly stable. In terms of cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials is mostly good, and the support for ABS on the cost side is acceptable. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream is cautious about the reduction of ABS supply, but the pre holiday stock makes the trading atmosphere warm. The resistance of merchants to shipment is reduced, and low-cost goods are hard to find. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be high in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price dropped slightly this week and then rose slightly, with the initial price of 7467 yuan / ton; the weekly high price of 7469 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.02%; the weekly low price of 7465 yuan / ton on Wednesday and Thursday, with the weekly amplitude of only 0.05%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising all the way, and the upward range is getting bigger and bigger. Up to the fourth day, the total price rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the seventh to the tenth, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it was slightly stable. From the 13th, the price went up again, up 350 yuan / ton on the 17th. On the 17th, the price remained stable, and the price decreased slightly on weekends On the 21st, some enterprises went down by 50-100 yuan / ton. From Monday 21, the prices were generally stable. On the 24th, the prices of some enterprises began to decline slightly. Today, the prices showed a slight upward trend. The market transaction is still between 7300 and 7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7450 yuan / ton. Most propylene manufacturers have controllable inventory.

On September 24, crude oil prices declined slightly, which had little impact on propylene market.

PP futures market slightly down this week, but today has increased, spot prices across the board stable, propylene may have some positive impact.

Acrylic acid market continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 3.57%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market continued to rise steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 5.58%, which also had a positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin price dropped slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 1.45%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

The domestic price of n-butanol rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.53%, which had little impact on propylene.

Octanol market remained stable throughout the week, no impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market continued to decline this week, with a weekly decline of 2.46%, slightly negative impact on propylene.

The price of phenol in East China remained stable in the first half of this week, and rose significantly in the second half of this week, with a weekly increase of 1.88%, which had a certain effect on propylene.

The price of acetone in East China continued to decline this week, with a weekly drop of 5.15%, which had a certain suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe: in a comprehensive view, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is within the controllable range, the crude oil price has been reduced, the downstream products are generally profitable, the operating rate is high, and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, which has a certain support for propylene, and the favorable factors are more than the negative factors. However, the current propylene price is at the top position, and the upward trend is difficult, so it is expected that propylene will be in the near future The price or a small fluctuation stabilized.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market price recovered steadily in mid September, and the spot prices of some brands fell back. As of September 24, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was around 8016.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic (Shandong) market price of propylene upstream of PP stabilized after rising in mid September. According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, since September 1, the price of propylene has been rising continuously, and the upward range is getting larger and larger. Up to the 4th, the price rose by 300 yuan / ton. From the 7th to the 10th, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it slightly stabilized. The price rose again on the 13th, and rose by about 350 yuan / T on the 17th. On the 18th, the price began to hold steady. At present, the market has been trading at Between 7300 and 7600 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is about 7465.45 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, low inventory. The crude oil price has risen significantly, the overall industrial chain is better, the profit of downstream products is generally optimistic, the purchasing enthusiasm is good, but the market atmosphere is still lively, but the price is in the top position. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in the later stage, which does not rule out the possibility of a small correction.

The recent high and stable price of upstream propylene has supported the cost side of PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) was adjusted in September, and the spot price had a correction in the near future. In terms of inventory, PP inventory of two barrels of oil and other manufacturers decreased steadily, and the inventory level was in the low range over the years. Since the beginning of the month, the arrival of port cargo has been stable, and there is no obvious pressure on inventory. The near-term trend of far upstream crude oil is not very ideal, forming a certain pressure on chemicals under the industrial chain. At present, the production of PP maintenance equipment is more, and the shutdown situation is less. And some news said that there are also start-up projects, PP supply increase is expected to be negative. At present, although the downstream demand is normal, but the above negative factors still cause businesses to follow suit, and it is expected that PP (wire drawing) market will weaken.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 24, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8316.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, there was a 2.89% increase, among which the spot price of fiber materials fluctuated and stabilized in mid September. At present, the production of fiber PP is normal and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is reported that the inventory of fiber materials has decreased steadily, and the consumption in peak season has certain support for the spot price. However, the negative news of crude oil falling and supply increasing restricted the fiber material market. PP (fiber) is expected to be pulled into the finishing market in the near future.

PP meltblown material market weakness continued, domestic PP melt blown material market confidence is insufficient, but the price is close to stable. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention products is declining. The pattern of market oversupply did not improve, but the price decline of PP meltblown materials narrowed. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the decline of PP (melt blown) has decreased since September. As of September 24, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14500 yuan / ton. This month, the market atmosphere seems to be immersed in last month’s overseas big bill failure. At present, some countries in the world may enter the rebound period of health events again, and the demand is expected to rise. However, the competition among domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers is still strong, and the profits of the main downstream mask factories are seriously diluted. Sinopec’s next sales of meltblown materials and cloth also have an impact on the market. The relationship between the future demand of PP (melt blown) and the profit of manufacturers is complex, and the mentality of merchants is negative. However, the spot price of melt blown PP seems to have fallen to a low profit point, which is expected to stabilize in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: mid September domestic PP spot market market callback. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) inventory supply expanded expectations, prices have a certain range of correction. PP (fiber) market temporarily stable, PP (melt blown) demand continued to be weak, the price callback range narrowed. At present, the steady decline of inventory, supply expansion expectations and weak futures and other factors restrict the PP market. The stock situation of downstream factories is fair, the business mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. PP spot prices are expected to weaken in the near future.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on September 24 was 14276.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.95% compared with the average market price of 14710 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (September 1), 1.90% lower than the valley value of the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) 14553.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 27.05%.

In September, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose. In the recent two days, the price of aluminum ingots has fallen continuously, breaking through the earlier shock range (the range is 14500-14800 yuan / ton), and the horizontal trend shows a slight break.

Supply and demand in September

1. Social inventory continued to move down to support aluminum prices

Social inventory: in September, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to move down, about 20000 tons lower than 755000 tons at the end of August. According to statistical data, the domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory on September 21 was 735000 tons, which was 5000 tons lower than that of the previous week, which was 74 tons on September 17. Compared with August 28, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 755000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons.

2. New and resumed production capacity is expected to increase at the supply side

In terms of production capacity: with the newly added and resumed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, as of mid September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has increased to 37.75 million tons / year, and the completed capacity scale is 42.88 million tons / year, and the supply side will be released in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year..

3. The price of net imported aluminum in February was under pressure

In terms of import and export: in August 2020, China’s exports of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products reached 395000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. From January to August, the export of UN forged and rolled aluminum and aluminum products was 3.134 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. China imported 429000 tons of aluminum in August, the highest level in more than 11 years, the second consecutive month of net aluminum imports.

Raw material alumina: 417300 tons of alumina were imported in July, and 2327200 tons were imported from January to July, an increase of 341.2% year-on-year.

Future forecast

Aluminum prices have been running sideways for a long time, and the upward breakthrough is weak, mainly based on the fact that the average profit of domestic aluminum price is still acceptable, the enthusiasm of new production and re production capacity is high, coupled with the price difference between internal and external, the original aluminum import volume increases, resulting in greater domestic supply pressure. Fortunately, the social inventory data shows that although the export market is still significantly down year-on-year, domestic consumption is good. This week, aluminum prices fell for two consecutive days, breaking through the horizontal trend in September. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business agency, believes that in the near future, the basic metals are greatly affected by the external price. In addition, although the consumption demand in the traditional consumption peak season in September has increased on a month on month basis, the market expectation for the surplus supply in the aftermarket has been intensified, leading to the rise of the expected demand for consumer demand, and the consumption demand is not as good as the market forecast The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be weak and stable in October, with the price range of 13500-15000 yuan / ton.

On September 24, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to the data of business agency, on September 24, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 11558.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.12% compared with the average market price of 11208.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1); 10491.67 yuan / ton, up 10.17%; 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.32% compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the month.

On the 24th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 12100-12300 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 11600-11800 yuan / ton 。

Export orders picked up in September, with a small increase in volume. At present, the mainstream silicon factories are optimistic and willing to support prices. On the one hand, the silicon price moved up slightly, the market was expected to be better, and the seller’s reluctance to sell increased; on the other hand, the export price of silicon metal was affected by the exchange rate, and the RMB valuation rose.