Commodity index: on July 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 82.89, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, which was 22.63% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
Price quotation: data shows that polyacrylamide in July showed a slight downward trend compared with the market at the end of June. In the first half of the month, many companies cut prices, but the overall range is not very large; in the second half of the month, the number of enterprises that adjust prices is smaller, but the adjustment of single enterprise is greater, which is different from the first half of the month. On July 1, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13960 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 14020 yuan / ton on June 30. On the 14th of this month, it was about 13920 yuan / ton, and it was about 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month. In the first half of this month, it was slightly reduced by 0.29%, but by 0.71% compared with the end of last month. In the second half of the month, 13600 yuan / ton was quoted on 16th, and 13566.67 yuan / ton was quoted on 31st, with a very small reduction in half a month Less than 1%.
Factor analysis:
First of all, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price will drop sharply first, and then it will continue to adjust to a certain extent. Since the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half of the month was about 8000 yuan / ton. In June, it was stable at around 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of June, and continued to rise in the last ten days, with the highest value reaching about 8800-8900 yuan / ton, and then it was adjusted back to 8400 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In July, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall. On the 13th, the price of acrylonitrile had dropped by about 1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation had fallen to 7300 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the price continued to rise, especially at the end of the month, which was 7600 yuan / ton on the 31st daily. Among them, Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile was shut down for maintenance on July 23, and resumed on July 28, with 80% of the start-up maintenance. 2. The 130000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to shut down at the beginning of August, or last for about one month. Shanghai Secco acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a production line in late August, with an estimated loss of about 3000 tons. The acrylonitrile plant in srbon was shut down on July 16 and is expected to restart before and after August 5. Asahi Asahi’s Far East contract proposal price in August implemented $1090 / T CFR, down $50 / T from last month.. Downstream demand: the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved greatly this year, and the manufacturers have great sales pressure. Due to the comprehensive influence of demand and cost, the prices of several polyacrylamide manufacturers have been reduced slightly from month to month.
Secondly, the manufacturer production angle. According to the survey, Henan Province, one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, has normal production and high inventory. On July 1, many manufacturers lowered the price of main specification products. Although the range was small, the number of price adjustment was more. In the first half of the month, some manufacturers had a second small reduction. Some manufacturers’ prices remained stable, and the number of price adjustments in the second half of the month was reduced, but some enterprises’ price adjustments were larger, But it is because of the sales strategy that is adjusted down and back. Current price: cationic: molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree), 13000-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million yuan / ton, solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles 9600-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 18 million solid particles 10400-11000 yuan / ton, The molecular weight of 18-20 million powdery products is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; non-ionic: about 12000-13000 yuan / ton; in general, manufacturers generally lower the lowest price by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the overall reduction range is different. Some specifications of some manufacturers have been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton. The sales pressure of enterprise production and distribution manufacturers is huge, which is helpless for the current situation, and the price downward space is very small.
Thirdly, industry perspective. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products in line with the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determines the price and cost, which has different impact on the production cost. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the cost reduction and the demand for The difference is to determine the market trend, this month the market is still weak in stability.
Future forecast:
According to the analysis of the business agency, the cost has risen first and then up, and the demand side has not improved greatly. In the second half of the year, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the future market is still mainly stable, with small flexible adjustment. With the economic situation in the third quarter expected to be better, the recovery of water treatment industry demand can also be expected.
