1、 Trend analysis

On the 10th, the spot copper price was 50131.67 yuan / ton, down 2.63% from the previous trading day, up 7.47% year-on-year and 2.24% higher than the beginning of the year. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose 1.07% to close at $6304 at the end of Asian trading. Shanghai copper’s main contract in 2009 rebounded from the low and narrowed the decline, closing at 50230 yuan, down 2.09%.

Domestic downstream consumption is weakening seasonally, and short-term supply is increasing. At the supply end, Chile’s equivalent producer gradually recovers supply. Chile’s national copper industry Codelco restarted smelter and mine projects, while China’s large amount of imported copper materials flowed into the domestic shock market in July, and the recent inventory continued to accumulate. Last week, Shanghai copper inventory increased by more than 8%, and the accumulated stock increased by more than 8%, making the copper price under pressure.

In view of the above situation, the supply gradually recovered and the off-season effect of demand put pressure on copper prices. However, the registered warehouse receipts in LME copper market fell to a low level, and foreign demand recovered. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market was stable in the first ten days of August, and the range of rise and fall of various models of products was relatively narrow. As of August 10, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18750.00 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.27% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Recently, adipic acid upstream of PA66 has been suffering from low demand. The low price of last month was stable, and the spot price was adjusted narrowly in the whole month, with a decline of only 1.78%. In August, although adipic acid demand did not improve, the spot price was at a low level and there was no inventory pressure and accumulation risk. The profit margin of merchants was not large, and the price was firm. It is expected that the market of adipic acid will be stable in the near future.

The cost of PA66 is generally supported by adipic acid from upstream. The supply in the market was still at a low level last month. At present, the operating rate of various manufacturers is stable, among which, Liaoyang Xingjia still stops production, Huafeng Group has a plant operating rate of 80000 tons per year, and Dandong youfiber Technology Co., Ltd. also has half of the units shut down, and Shenma industrial operation rate is 80%. The operating rate is not high, diverting considerable pressure of excess supply and stabilizing the spot price of PA66. At present, although the support of raw material price is not strong, it is relatively stable. The shipment situation of merchants is general, and the actual trading is still limited. The inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories has recovered, and the purchasing strategy has been maintained with the help of users, and the improvement degree of transaction is limited.

Business agency analysts believe: in early August, domestic PA66 market is stable and small. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable, which supports the cost of PA66 in general. The downstream inquiry situation has increased, and the improvement of demand is still limited. At present, the operating rate of domestic slicing plants has reduced the pressure of excess supply, and the situation of insufficient supply and actual trading is coexisting. The domestic market is actually in the post supply and demand contradiction. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate smoothly in the short term.

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week, the price of lithium carbonate is basically stable, and the price of industrial carbon has slightly increased. On August 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39900 yuan / ton, which was 0.5% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 1.01% higher than that on July 7; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 7 was 44900 yuan / ton, which remained unchanged compared with the beginning of the week and increased by 1.35% compared with July 7. On July 7, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35000-45000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40000-48000 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream demand of the market has recovered, and the shipment situation of some enterprises has recovered. However, the strong bargaining attitude of customers makes the actual delivery price lower than the price quoted by the enterprise. At present, the inquiry of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is mainly based on low price inquiry, and the transaction increment is not obvious temporarily. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate is stable this week. Combined with the recent arrival of imported lithium carbonate in Hong Kong, the rising space is under pressure.

At present, as the price of lithium salt remains unchanged, the downstream power market orders increase, but it is difficult to drive up the price of iron and lithium, and the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged. However, the domestic demand for lithium hydroxide is less and the transaction is sporadic. When the purchase price of large factories is stable in the third quarter and the market demand is limited, the willingness of upstream price adjustment is low. The industrial market demand is relatively stable, and the trading volume price has no significant fluctuation.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on August 6, 2020, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polysilicon (7.48%), propylene oxide (4.09%) and dichloromethane (1.35%). There were 10 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with isopropanol (- 4.60%), chloroform (- 2.78%) and caustic soda (- 2.56%).

Lithium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that with the large number of imported lithium carbonate arriving in Hong Kong in August, the domestic lithium carbonate market price will have a certain impact. Coupled with the reduction of purification demand, industrial carbon price rise space pressure. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the future may be in the downward trend of stabilization.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 11000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 11000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was stable.

At present, the price of activated carbon in China is temporarily stable. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is generally traded, and there are few resources. Active carbon market price changes limited, terminal demand into the off-season, transactions only maintain just demand.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is fair; the cost support of coal based carbon raw material is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy has boosted the activated carbon market, and the activated carbon market has improved.

Forecast: small and medium-sized downstream users of activated carbon mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is slightly flat. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will fluctuate slightly.

Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil company, announced its official crude oil price in September on the afternoon of 6 June local time. It showed that the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asian market of the company in September was adjusted by 0.3 US dollars compared with that of last month, the price of Arab light crude oil for the United States was the same as that of last month, and the price of Arab light oil for Western Europe and Northern Europe decreased by $2.5 compared with August It is also that after five months, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of crude oil for Asian and European markets at the same time.

In March this year, after the negotiation agreement on crude oil production reduction between Saudi Arabia and Russia broke down, Saudi Arabia announced a substantial increase in crude oil production and a reduction in crude oil prices to launch a crude oil price war. After the re conclusion of the production reduction agreement in April, Saudi Arabia gradually increased the price of crude oil to various markets and reduced production to stabilize the international crude oil market Monthly crude oil prices rose the most in 20 years.

Market analysis shows that after the agreement on crude oil production reduction reached between the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, the international crude oil price has gradually risen. However, the Gulf oil producing countries are still under great pressure due to the new outbreak. Therefore, Saudi Arabia hopes to stabilize its market share by lowering the crude oil price. However, this action may trigger a chain reaction, which will put pressure on the upward trend of international crude oil price 。

Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil company. According to the usual practice, the company will announce the official price of crude oil in the next month around the 5th of each month, and this index has important guiding significance for the price of crude oil in the whole Middle East.

According to London, August 4, 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently said in a new update report that the new coronavirus epidemic crisis will cause global oil demand to drop by about 8% this year.

In its external report entitled global imbalances and the covid-19 crisis, the IMF said oil prices will be 41% lower this year than last year. The IMF said that the direct impact of low oil prices on the oil trade balance of economies would be different, reflecting the economies’ dependence on oil imports and exports.

The IMF’s forecast for the decline in global oil demand this year is in line with the forecasts of other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The IEA said in its latest oil market report in July that global oil demand is expected to decline by 7.9 million barrels per day this year, but the forecast is slightly higher than the 8.1 million barrels per day drop in June.

However, novel coronavirus pneumonia cases and a partial resumption of some countries’ continued blockade of global demand for oil are continuing to intensify this year, IEA said.

The IEA said the average global oil consumption this year is expected to be 92.1 million barrels per day, compared with its previous forecast of 100 million barrels per day.

OPEC predicts that global oil demand will decrease by 8.9 million B / d this year and increase by 7 million B / D next year, but still lower than last year’s demand.

In its updated report, IMF pointed out that the sharp drop in oil prices and production reduction after the outbreak of the new coronavirus will seriously hit oil exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Compared with last year, these oil exporting countries are expected to significantly reduce their combined oil revenue by $270 billion this year.

On August 5, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $42.19/barrel, up $0.49. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $45.17/barrel, up $0.74. Oil prices rose to the highest level since the beginning of March, due to the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventories, combined with the continued weakening of the US dollar.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, according to a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday; US crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels in the week ended July 31, with analysts expecting a decrease of 3 million barrels. Inventory data was positive for oil prices. After the report was released late on Wednesday, oil prices rose, and WTI and Brent reached their highest levels since early March.

In addition, from the macro level, the continued weakening of the US dollar is good for the commodity market. The depreciation of the US dollar will bring a certain degree of premium to commodities and also support the current oil price. Moreover, a new round of U.S. economic stimulus plan is brewing, which is still under urgent negotiation. Although there are still differences on key details, both the White House and the Democratic Party hope to reach a consensus on the stimulus plan within this week. The favorable macro level is an important driving force for oil prices to maintain a high level of consolidation.

However, in terms of supply and demand, the current crude oil market is still not optimistic. With the end of OPEC + record production reduction, many oil producing countries have the intention to reduce the scale of production reduction, and there is still a large risk in the supply side. Especially in the current situation of severe suppression of the epidemic situation, energy demand continues to be depressed. From the US EIA inventory data released yesterday, we can also see that, although crude oil stocks fell sharply, gasoline and distillate oil inventories continued to grow. Moreover, gasoline inventories increased for the second consecutive week and distillate oil inventories increased for the third consecutive week. This reflects that the downstream demand has not fundamentally improved, the performance of summer driving season is not satisfactory, and in the twinkling of an eye, the peak season is coming to an end, and there is a risk of further decline in gasoline demand. The decline of crude oil inventory is mainly due to the decline of import volume.

In the near future, oil prices may continue to consolidate. Under the background of continuous tension between China and the United States and the severe suppression of the epidemic situation, the current situation of the oil market is relatively complex. The supply and demand side is basically balanced. In the later stage, the relaxation and reduction of oil production in oil producing countries may bring certain supply risks. Therefore, we should be cautious and optimistic about the impact of the epidemic situation on the demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 06, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5833.33 yuan / ton. The focus of DMF market negotiation shifted upward, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price of DMF increased by 19.86%, 10.76% compared with the same period last week, and the weekly increase was about 600 yuan / ton.

As of August 6, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 5500 yuan / T, Zhangqiu Riyue 5600 yuan / T, Hualu Hengsheng 6400 yuan / T, Anyang Jiutian 5700 yuan / T, Shaanxi Xinghua 5650 yuan / T, Guangdong 6200 yuan / T, Jiangsu 5950 yuan / T, Zhejiang Province 6050 yuan / ton, 5350-5500 yuan / ton in East China market, 5500-5700 yuan / ton in South China market.

The upstream methanol mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, the inventory is low, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. At present, the shipment is normal, the operation is cautious, and the narrow range sorting is the main in the short term.

On August 5, the chemical index was 671 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 33.96% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 12.21% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Business agency DMF analysts believe: in the short term, DMF digestion of early growth, inventory is still tense trend. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on July 30 was 35.46, flat compared with yesterday, 65.16% lower than the highest point 102.01 in the cycle (2014-01-09), and 18.51% higher than the lowest point 29.99 on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In July 2020, the crude benzene market fluctuated. The ex factory price in North China decreased by 3.95% from 2531.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2431.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

Summary of price adjustment of pure benzene in Sinopec (North China) in July 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

July 1 3050 – 200

July 23 3100 + 50

July 27 3200 + 100

30 July 3300 + 100

In July 2020, Sinopec increased the ex factory price of pure benzene three times and lowered it once. As of the end of the month, Sinopec implemented 3300 yuan / ton of pure benzene in North China, an increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

The crude benzene market is mainly volatile this month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the slight rebound of pure benzene market price in Shandong, the price went up, and then affected by the continuous rise of inventory, the market mentality was slightly poor, and the price tended to be stable. In the middle of the month, it was difficult to get support from downstream demand, and the price began to decline. In the middle of the month, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises and pure benzene downstream enterprises had maintenance plans, and the operating rate dropped by 5% Around, crude benzene demand is expected to be poor, crude benzene pressure decline. At the end of the month, affected by Sinopec’s two consecutive increases in the ex factory price of pure benzene, the tender price of crude benzene recovered, the downstream styrene market also slightly improved in the same period, the aniline inventory pressure eased, the price rose slightly, the hydrobenzene market fundamentals and the downstream good led to the market price increase, and the crude benzene market entered the upward channel.

The bottom support of the pure benzene market was stronger, and the external market of pure benzene rose for four consecutive days. Although the port inventory was still high, there was some market purchase intention near the end of the month, which supported the price of pure benzene, and the hydrobenzene market followed the price of pure benzene. Crude benzol experienced the fluctuation of auction and price reduction near the end of the month, which supported the price rebound at the end of the month.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun Chemical Park 100000 tons

Shandong Derun Chemical Park 150000 tons

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Industry Park 100000 tons

Panjin Ruide parking 200000 tons, there are plans in the near future, to be determined

Shandong Huineng chemical 50% 200000 tons

There are still many downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises for maintenance, some of which have been shut down for more than three months. The units of Tangshan Baoshun, Panjin Ruide, Jinneng and shouchuang have been shut down. The restart time is still to be determined. The overall operating rate in East China is still low, and the demand for crude benzene is limited.

In the aftermarket, the business club believes that the pressure of hydrobenzene market cost remains, and the crude oil price fluctuates, which has caused a certain degree of market wait-and-see sentiment. In the future, the market still needs to focus on the changes of pure benzene inventory.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1883 yuan / ton on July 1, and 1900 yuan / ton on July 31, up 0.89%.

According to the business club’s big list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on July 1 was 2185 yuan / ton, and on July 31, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2202 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.76%.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 85%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The stable operation of Henan market, 55% ammonium powder factory quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

In July, the price of diammonium phosphate rose slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 53%. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2150-2250 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2250 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2250-2350 yuan / ton. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.

In July, the market of raw material phosphate ore was weak and stable, and the downstream demand was insufficient. Therefore, the industry was cautious to wait and see. Some mining enterprises reduced the price of phosphate ore. In July, the raw material sulfur market was weak, and the price trend was slightly increased at the end of the month. Domestic sulfur market performance is not warm and tepid, downstream factories and traders are not enthusiastic to purchase in the market, follow-up is insufficient, demand is limited, port inventory is high, consumption is slow, lack of substantive information guidance in internal and external markets, and buyers and sellers are mainly on the sideline.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business club believe that the market of ammonium phosphate raw materials is poor in July, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is weak, and the market transaction is limited. At present, the price of monoammonium phosphate is firm, and the international market demand for diammonium phosphate is good. It is expected that there will be a slight fluctuation in the range of monoammonium phosphate in August, and the price of diammonium phosphate will rise.