1、 Price trend

The average price of TDI market in East China on the 18th was 14000.00 yuan / ton, up 10.53% compared with yesterday and 1.94% higher than last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business agencies. On August 18, the TDI commodity index was 74.07, up 7.05 points from yesterday, 70.14% lower than 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and 40.92% higher than the lowest point of 52.56 points on May 5, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Last week, suppliers intensively released good news. TDI raised the weekly guidance price of manufacturers for three consecutive weeks, and the quotation of kosstro rose last Thursday, and Wanhua stopped receiving orders on Friday. In addition, the supply side intended to pull up, the market continued strongly this week. Wanhua chemical’s guiding price this week was increased by 2000 yuan to 15000 yuan / T. under the sharp pull-up of the factory guidance price, the dealers followed the factory’s offer. At present, the East China market is in a high consolidation level, and the enterprise’s offer remains at a high level. As of the 18th, the quotation of domestic goods with bill of lading in East China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 13700-14500 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the trend of toluene market is stable. Affected by the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak. On the other hand, the international crude oil has been pushed up and down, which is generally stable. Considering the impact of economic recovery on crude oil demand and the trend of international crude oil, the toluene market may fluctuate slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analysis of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market tends to be strong. After the factory guide price rises sharply, the dealers follow the factory’s offer to a high level. The downstream side resists the high price. The business operators are cautious and the supplier’s support is obvious. In the short term, the domestic TDI market may be consolidated at a high level.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 1850.00 yuan / ton, which was 18.32% lower than the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, on August 14, the potassium chloride commodity index was 58.73.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at weekend is 1820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution at weekend is 1880 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In mid August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, the weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts of the business club believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

The domestic ethanol market has been reorganized and operated. According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6187 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6175 yuan / ton at the weekend. During the week, the price dropped slightly, down 0.20%, and the price rose by 2.28% month on month compared with the same period of last month and 14.78% higher than that of the same period last year

This week, the domestic ethanol market was sorted out and operated. From the perspective of raw corn, first of all, the transaction price of raw corn fell this week. Secondly, some production enterprises in Henan Province resumed normal operation this week, and the inventory of enterprises increased relatively in a short time. Finally, the downstream demand is mainly on demand, and many small orders are traded. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market fluctuates less.

Logistics: at present, freight fluctuation is not big. This week, Heilongjiang Shandong Dezhou freight is about 280 yuan / ton, Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 160-220 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, corn: according to the business agency, in August, the auction of state-owned corn continued, and the auction was still hot. Since the price of corn has been rising sharply since July, the rise is small, more than 1%. Due to the continuous high price of corn, CSGC adjusted the bidding rules for many times, alleviated the transaction premium of corn auction, and the average auction price dropped slightly compared with the end of July. Corn spot prices have also stabilized.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose slightly this week. At present, the production of ethyl acetate is stable, the spot supply is sufficient, and the short-term demand for raw materials acetic acid and ethanol is not favorable for the time being. The domestic market of ethyl acetate is mainly on a wait-and-see manner.

In the future, the ethanol analysts of the business club predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would still be sorted out and operated.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 17th, the spot nickel price was 114683.33 yuan / ton, up 0.6% compared with the previous trading day, 0.84% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.56% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 114380 yuan, and the price rose sharply after opening, closing at 115950 yuan, up 1.62%. LME3 nickel closed at 14575 US dollars, up 1.36%.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of nickel ore, the port inventory was 8.08 million tons, with a rise on a month on month basis. The Philippine mine loaded 65 ships this week, keeping at a high level, and the tight supply situation continued to ease. However, the nickel ore inventory is still at a low level, and the downstream just needs to be prepared, so the ore price is expected to remain high. At present, the price of ferronickel and waste stainless steel is firm, and the output of stainless steel has reached a record high. With the arrival of the peak season of traditional consumption of stainless steel in September, the demand for nickel in stainless steel will remain high. The demand for new energy has gradually improved, and the output of new energy vehicles in China has continued to rise on a month on month basis. But the consumption terminal, the real estate investment completion still maintains the negative growth, the domestic stainless steel consumption faces the pressure. In terms of ferronickel, Indonesia’s Delong Qingshan Industrial Park was put into production at the end of the second quarter. Several production lines were still put into operation from July to August, and Indonesia NPI concentrated iron production in the later stage. A large amount of low-cost ferronickel has been returned to China, and the domestic ferronickel may be surplus in the third quarter.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term fundamentals of nickel are acceptable, but with the production of ferronickel, there is a certain pressure on nickel upward space, and nickel is expected to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, the domestic spot market price of PTA fell slightly on August 17, with an average price of 3621 yuan / ton, down 0.24% compared with the previous trading day, and 32.09% lower than that of the previous trading day. PTA main futures (2101) closed higher and closed at 3774, up 6. 6% from the previous trading day.

PTA market traders mainly buy, spot trading atmosphere is not good. In terms of units, the PTA units of Honggang and Ningbo Taihua are in the process of heating up and restarting. Yangzi Petrochemical plant is also planned to restart this Friday, and the supply will increase again, which is detrimental to the market mentality. In terms of downstream demand, the polyester starting load was 87.68%, the terminal orders were improved recently, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased to 63.30%, but it was at a low level year on year.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that PTA supply is expected to be loose, but social inventory is still high, and downstream demand is difficult to continue to improve, and PTA price is expected to weaken and adjust.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP fluctuated slightly in the second week of August, and the price of various brands increased or decreased slightly. As of August 14, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7900.00 yuan / ton, which was 1.28% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month, with a weekly decrease of 0.84%.

Cause analysis

Polypropylene upstream propylene, according to business agency data show that the recent market trend of propylene cyclical shocks. Last week, spot prices continued to rise, breaking through the recent shock price range, propylene stable operation this week. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down. On the 5th, it has been stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month has been started. The price has remained stable since 11th. The market transaction is still between 7000 and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers stable shipment, low inventory. At present, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is not under pressure, the crude oil price is slightly upward, the downstream polypropylene futures are high volatility, and the profit margin of propylene oxide is rising. The overall market procurement is picking up, and the market is good. But there are also some downstream obvious downward, there is a certain negative impact. Due to the overall downstream support, it is expected that the propylene price may still rise in the short term.

The upstream propylene breaks through the recent price fluctuation range and tends to be strong, which has cost support for PP. According to the data monitored by the business agency, in the first half of August, the market performance of PP (wire drawing) was stable, and the spot price was adjusted slightly. At present, the monthly peak appeared at about 8000 yuan / ton on August 5 last week, and there was a slight correction this week. The recent strong trend of the far upstream crude oil also formed a certain support for chemicals. In addition, due to the extreme weather at the beginning of the month, the arrival of imported goods was delayed, and the port PP inventory decreased compared with the same period of last year, which was good for PP and supported the firmness of spot price. However, in the middle and late August, the production of PP maintenance devices will be resumed. At that time, the domestic PP supply will increase significantly, which will form a certain pressure on the price. It is expected that the PP (wire drawing) price may have a correction.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 14, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7833.33 yuan / ton. 64% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the supply and demand of domestic PP fiber material and drawing material are stable, and the operation situation is similar. It is reported that polypropylene will enter into production peak in the second half of this month. New production lines of Baolai petrochemical, Zhongke refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Quanzhou of Sinochem are expected to start trial operation around the end of this month. Just after the peak maintenance season, the production of new equipment is bound to have an impact on PP prices. PP inventory of two barrels of oil rose this week, while social inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. PP (fiber) is expected to decline in the near future.

The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the price of business agency, the current domestic price of PP (melt blown) material continues to decline. As of August 14, the average quoted price of melt blown PP of melt index 1500 by sample enterprises is about 16300.00 yuan / ton. The epidemic situation in China was generally stable, and the supply of epidemic prevention related products exceeded demand, and most of the prices fell. Overseas demand is not decreasing, but manufacturers of epidemic prevention products are facing fierce competition. According to information, as of the beginning of July, the number of mask manufacturers in China has increased by 1200% to 74000. Industry competition is strong, and some even say it is “unprofitable”. In addition, the diversification of anti epidemic materials also has a certain dispersion on the demand for masks. The demand for PP (melt blown) is turning down rapidly. The business mentality is negative and the phenomenon of leaving the field is still more. It is expected that the melt blown materials will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: August second week domestic PP spot market trend slightly callback. Upstream propylene market is strong, there is support for PP cost side. PP (drawing) and PP (fiber) are stable and small, PP (melt blown) demand is still weak, prices continue to callback. At present, the peak maintenance season has passed, and there are many new equipment put into production at the same time, which is detrimental to the supply side. Downstream factory stock situation is general, merchants actively shipping. PP futures recently put into production news to suppress the disk, the atmosphere has turned negative. PP spot price is expected to have a correction in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on August 10 was 576 yuan / ton, and that on August 14 was 583 yuan / ton. The price rose by 1.15% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic ammonium sulfate is rising this week. The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 550-650 yuan / ton, that of Henan Province is 530-580 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Province is 470-600 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Province is 500-580 yuan / ton, that of East China is 550-650 yuan / ton, that of North China is 500-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is calm and stable. Mainly in autumn fertilizer preparation, the current market is flat, the industry mentality is calm. Compound fertilizer market in the short term a small shock.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current domestic demand for coking grade ammonium sulfate Market is less, the market trend is weak. The domestic supply of ammonium sulfate is tight, and the price remains firm. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will be the main treatment in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the average weekly quotation of formic acid in domestic industrial water purification this week is 1716.67 yuan / ton, and the overall formic acid market is relatively stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a relatively stable trend, and the price was flat compared with the same period last month. In terms of equipment: the manufacturers and distributors operate normally and the shipment is acceptable. This week, the supply of formic acid market is fair, and the enterprises have inventory. In terms of price: this week, the quoted price of enterprises is basically around 1716.67 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of formic acid for industrial water purification is about 1350-1600 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is at 2750 yuan / ton. As of Friday (August 14), Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1400 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1350 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trading Co., Ltd. offered 2100 yuan / ton of 85% formic acid in barrels; Jintan local supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. offered 1950 yuan / T; Jinan senhong New Trade Co., Ltd. offered 2700 yuan / T.

The domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products has been running steadily, some of which have been rising steadily. The urea market has raised the price this week, the overall situation of methanol has declined slightly, and the domestic caustic soda market has declined slightly, and the overall trend has been stable. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the downstream products such as leather and pesticide industries are relatively stable, and the sales situation is general. This week, there is a small decline in formic acid products.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data analyst of the business agency, the overall price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China is relatively stable, and the current price is slightly adjusted compared with the same period last month. Recently, the inventory of dealers is fair, the upstream and downstream demand is relatively cold, and the enterprise’s shipment is not much. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, as of August 13, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method was 6766 yuan / ton (including tax), and the overall market was stable and upward, with an increase of 5.18% compared with the average price of 6433 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

On August 12, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 63.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 48.46% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and increased by 24.54% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: due to the negative impact of the maintenance of enterprises in the main production areas, the supply of maleic anhydride market in China is limited recently, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure is not great, so the ex factory price has risen steadily. However, the downstream resin industry starts to operate at a low level, but the enterprise’s inventory is low, so the demand side still exists, and the price support for maleic anhydride is acceptable.

Industrial chain: the center of gravity of hydrobenzene market has fallen, and enterprises have successively lowered the ex factory prices. The demand of downstream market is limited, and the sentiment of price reduction is obvious; the downstream resin industry is in a horizontal arrangement, and the overall market start-up is low, and the terminal demand is still flat.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club maleic anhydride product analysts believe that, although the downstream market demand is flat, but the overall supply of maleic anhydride market is tight, the supply side of maleic anhydride price support is still good, and the enterprise inventory pressure is not big, so the short-term stable operation.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the prices of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products were slightly consolidated. On August 13, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1209 yuan / ton, which was 2.25% lower than that of last year. On August 12, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 95.28, unchanged with yesterday, 38.76% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 42.44% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke has been relatively stable in recent years, and some refineries have been hindered in shipping due to high price, and the price has been lowered. PetroChina and CNOOC are mainly weak and stable, while Sinopec’s refineries are up. The price of low sulfur coke dropped to a low level, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke increased. However, the overall market of petroleum coke showed a stable operation, because the price trend of medium and low sulfur coke was differentiated, and the market showed a pattern of rising and falling.

Upstream: crude oil prices overall high volatility, continued consolidation operation. In terms of international crude oil, although the market is worried about OPEC’s relaxation of production reduction, the US crude oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the impact of the continued weakening of the US dollar has made the international crude oil price center shift upward.

Downstream: Recently, glass prices have continued to rise, and the current demand of the terminal market is steadily increasing, which has a good supporting role for the production enterprises to leave the warehouse. In the near future, market confidence has also improved by a large margin, and market transactions are fair. The price rotation of production enterprises in each region can promote the price support of local and surrounding markets. Electrolytic aluminum market showed a high decline, carbon market was troubled by upstream and downstream factors and poor profitability.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 9 commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 31st week of 2020 (8.3-8.7), with WTI crude oil (4.17%), Brent crude oil (3.61%) and naphtha (2.45%). There were five kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis. The top three products were dimethyl ether (- 1.75%), fuel oil (- 1.33%) and steam coal (- 1.27%). Both were up and down 63.0% this week.

3、 Future forecast

The oil coke analysts of business agency think: the price of low sulfur coke falls to a low level because of the poor performance of carbon market for steel, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke is relatively stable due to the high fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum market. However, due to the high decline trend of electrolytic aluminum market, the rising foundation of medium and high sulfur coke is not firm, and there are downward risks. It is comprehensively predicted that the price of Petroleum Coke will be weak and stable in the later stage Based on the demand of downstream market.