According to the monitoring of the business agency, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China showed an obvious upward trend in June. Among them, the trend of LLDPE in East China was twists and turns, while the trend of LDPE and HDPE was continuously rising. The overall trading atmosphere of the market in June was good. The rising range of the three major PE varieties was 250-900 yuan / T. among them, LDPE in East China was the most prominent, with a monthly increase of 8.09%.

Average price range of regional varieties and specifications on June 1 to June 30

East China LLDPE 7042 6750.00 yuan / ton 6933.33 yuan / ton + 2.72%

LDPE 2426h 7725.00 yuan / ton ￥ 8350.00 yuan / ton + 8.09% in East China

In East China, HDPE 5000S 7216.67 yuan / ton: 7783.33 yuan / ton + 7.85%

In June, the price of polyethylene market rose mainly, with an increase range of 250-900 yuan / ton. The main reasons for the increase are as follows: 1. The maintenance volume increased this month, and the market supply decreased. Some units of Maoming Petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Fujian united and Dushanzi Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance, which brought benefits to local areas. According to the data, in June, the domestic polyethylene plant lost nearly 280000 tons due to maintenance; 2. The international oil price showed an upward trend, which was beneficial to the market mentality, and the raw material ethylene followed the rise, which brought obvious support to the PE market in terms of cost; 3. The strong performance of Liansu futures boosted the market mentality. However, affected by seasonal factors, the operating rate of agricultural film is about 15%, and the demand for plastic film is low season, the demand for greenhouse film is flat, and the terminal demand is general. However, on the whole, there were many positive factors in June. The petrochemical enterprises continuously raised the ex factory prices, and the merchants’ mentality was better. Most of them went with the market, and the prices were pushed up.

Raw material ethylene market continued to rise in June, with an increase of 24.98%, which brought favorable support to the polyethylene market. As of July 26, CFR closed at $845-855 per ton in Northeast Asia and $785-795 in South East Asia. European ethylene market price rose, as of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 720-730 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 675-683 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to 275-293 U.S. dollars / ton as of the 26th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is mainly on the rise. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

At present, downstream factories are against high prices, and their mentality is more cautious. However, the maintenance season is not over, and some manufacturers’ equipment maintenance has brought support to local areas. The downstream gradually returned to work and production, the operating rate increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the market demand showed signs of recovery. Internationally, the trend of crude oil and ethylene is better, with some support in terms of cost, and the positive is greater than the negative. It is expected that the polyethylene market may still rise in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on April 1 was 2083 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 1866 yuan / ton. The overall price of powdered monoammonium phosphate fell by 10.40% in the second quarter. The lowest price in the quarter was 1856 yuan / ton, and the highest price was 2083 yuan / ton.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on April 1 was 2225 yuan / ton, and that on June 30 was 2145 yuan / ton. The overall price of diammonium phosphate fell by 3.58% in the second quarter. In the quarter, the lowest price is 2145 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2225 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Due to poor demand, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter. In April, the raw material market of ammonium phosphate was not good, and the downstream demand decreased, resulting in the continuous downturn of ammonium phosphate trend. Monoammonium phosphate turned into off season, and the trading volume decreased. The market of ammonium phosphate raw materials rose and fell in May, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer was insufficient. Monoammonium phosphate received some orders in advance, and the inventory pressure decreased. In June, the market of ammonium phosphate raw materials rose, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer was still weak. The amount of pre-sale orders of monoammonium phosphate was large, and the price increased slightly. Monoammonium phosphate industry is more optimistic, but the downstream compound fertilizer follow-up is insufficient, against high prices. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintained stable operation, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at about 1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Due to fierce export competition, diammonium phosphate market fell in the second quarter. In April, domestic demand for diammonium phosphate decreased and gradually turned to export, with lower price. In May, the domestic demand for diammonium phosphate decreased, and the supply decreased, resulting in fierce export competition. Domestic demand for diammonium phosphate did not improve in June, and most of them were sold on demand. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2150-2250 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2350 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2250-2400 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.

In April, the market of raw material phosphate ore continued to operate stably, and the market remained stable. There was no fluctuation in the market as a whole. The factory continued to supply old orders, and the increment of new orders was still small. The trend of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and the transaction focus continues to fall. The domestic market of raw material sulfur is stable and upward, and the price of sulfur at port rises. However, there is no large deal in the market. The shippers in Hong Kong are not in a hurry to ship, and the buyers follow the market. The quotation of domestic refineries is slightly adjusted. In May, the overall weakness of phosphate ore market was downward, the market was weak and the downstream support was insufficient. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprise market is not clear, weak operation, prices fell slightly. Compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw material ammonium phosphate, reducing demand and increasing equipment maintenance. In June, the overall market of phosphate ore in China is weak, and the market in many regions is weak and stable. With the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Domestic sulfur inventory is low and supply is reduced.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of business club believe that in the off-season of phosphate fertilizer in the second quarter, the market of raw materials for ammonium phosphate is not good, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is weakened, and there is no good support, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of ammonium phosphate. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will slightly improve in the third quarter, and the market trend will be stable. It is suggested to pay attention to the introduction of fertilizer policy in autumn.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregated MDI market continued to be in a stalemate. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12175 yuan / ton, which was 1.02% lower than the same period last month and 2.01% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, the aggregate MDI market stalemate range consolidation, the negotiation price volatility is small. At the beginning of the month, the spot delivery of the factory was slow, the low price was rarely heard, and the operators were cautious in trading. The main factories successively announced the listing prices in July, which were all stable; the weekly guidance price of Koster was stable without assessment; the response of the industry to the news was relatively mild. On July 1, Wanhua Yantai plant began to be overhauled for about 45 days. The overall atmosphere of the distribution trade market is quiet, and the mainstream agents are limited by the cost of manufacturers, and their quotations are mostly stable and cautious in shipping; the middlemen mainly keep shipping.

Raw materials, pure benzene: Shandong pure benzene market continued to decline. After the festival, the local refineries kept prices stable, but the overall inventory was on the high side. With the increase of port inventory in East China, the pressure of pure benzene cash withdrawal price is high, which leads to the strong bearish mentality of downstream and no traders, and they are cautious to watch the market. Local refining delivery is not smooth, the price is down.

Aniline: aniline market fell during the week. From the aspect of raw materials, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was lowered to 3100 yuan / ton, and the average bidding price of Jinling pure benzene was 3050 yuan / ton. The raw material side fell sharply and the aniline cost support weakened.

On the downstream side, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market showed a slight decline trend in June. As of June 30, the average price of spandex 40d specification was 31500 yuan / ton, down 1.25% from the beginning of the month and 3.08% lower than that at the beginning of the month. At the same time, it is also at a low level in recent three years, down 19.44% from June 30, 2017.

There are many low-cost sources of goods, and the trade market is slightly pessimistic. Analysts predict that the domestic aggregate MDI market will be mainly in the short term.

Since mid June, due to the negative impact of cost, the bisphenol a market stopped rising and operated smoothly, and then the market began to decline. According to the monitoring of business agency, the average offer of bisphenol a market on June 9 was 12450 yuan / ton, while that on July 6 was 10760 yuan / ton, a cumulative decline of 13.57%. The decline was obvious in July, with a decrease of 7% in just a few trading days. Up to now, the negotiation of bisphenol market in East China is about 10600 yuan / ton, and there are few downstream inquiries. The transaction situation is even worse. The mentality is seriously frustrated, and it is hard to say that it is good in the short term.

From the perspective of raw materials, since the middle of June, the overall cost of phenol and acetone has stopped rising and has turned downward. Especially after two months of sharp rise in acetone, traders are eager to make profits and ship, and their offer has been greatly reduced. So far, the offer of acetone mainstream in East China has decreased by 26%. At present, the East China market negotiation of raw material acetone is below 9000 yuan / T, and other mainstream regions are not impacted by the East China market Breaking down, the negotiation space is 9200-9600 yuan / ton, the market transaction performance is poor, and the enthusiasm of terminal purchase inquiry needs to be improved. According to statistics, since July 6, the volume of acetone in East China is relatively large, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. In the short term, acetone will continue to decline in the short term, with talks on acetone at 8800-9000 yuan / ton.

Market trend of acetone in East China in recent month

The main raw material phenol market has been declining since the middle of June. On June 9, the national phenol Market offered yuan / ton, and on July 6, the national phenol Market offered yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 17.51%. As of July 6, the offer of phenol in East China was at 6000 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity in South China fell again to 6050 yuan / ton. The supply of goods around Yanshan was still tight, and the market was weak and stable at 6600-6700 yuan / ton. In Shandong, the price was narrow and low, with an offer of about 6350 yuan / ton. In July, the two mainstream factories in East China were overhauled, and the port inventory was low in terms of historical port inventory. However, it was difficult to change the weak operation situation of the market. In the opening of this week, Yangzhou Shiyou device resumed to restart, the supply pressure increased, the market went down again, the downstream terminal buying was depressed, and the on-site inquiry was rare. Under the situation of sudden increase of supply pressure, many traders gave in At present, the guiding price of domestic petrochemical plants is 6900 yuan / ton, and the market situation is serious. We should pay attention to the price adjustment situation of manufacturers in the near future. In addition, the actual market volume has also attracted much attention. Under the situation of obvious shortage of transactions in the market, the short-term phenol market pressure will not be reduced, and the business community is expected to offer phenol at 5950-6000 yuan / ton.

National market trend of phenol in recent month

The downstream liquid epoxy resin is in a downturn, and the market reference price of liquid epoxy resin is 18000 yuan / ton. The terminal wind power industry develops generally, and the overall operating rate of the enterprise runs smoothly. In the short term, the epoxy resin industry is hard to say good, the market turnover is insufficient, and the trading needs to be improved.

In the view of business associations, on the one hand, subject to the sluggish terminal demand market, the bearish mentality of the cargo holders is serious, and the market focus is constantly frustrated. On the other hand, supported by the favorable cost in the early stage, the current cost has also been seriously frustrated. The bad news under the industrial chain has been filled, and the market mentality has been seriously frustrated. The Business Association expects that the short-term bisphenol a market will continue to decline, and the quotation reference of East China market is 10400-10500 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on July 6, the spot nickel price was 105083.33 yuan / ton, up 0.35% compared with the previous trading day, 7.61% lower than that at the beginning of the year, and 5.88% higher than that at the beginning of the year. Shanghai nickel opened at 106030 yuan, and then the price fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 107100 yuan, up 1.20%. LME3 nickel closed at US $13230, up 1.97%.

2、 Market analysis

According to mining week, S & P global, a rating and research agency, said industrial metals prices have risen since the global blockade of covid-19 was relaxed, the economy reopened, and monetary stimulus from banks and governments. At present, nickel ore prices are still strong, and Philippine supply is not as expected. London Metal Exchange (LME) 2-day lunni inventory was 234264 metric tons, 48 tons lower than the previous trading day. However, lunni’s stocks rose slightly last week, with total weekly stocks up 294 tonnes to 234264 tonnes, up 0.13% for the week. Domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased 431 tons to 29422 tons last week, an increase of 1.49%, to a three and a half month high. Domestic and foreign nickel inventories showed an upward trend, indicating a decline in market demand.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: Although the impact of nickel ore supply supports nickel price, the downstream stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel inventory is high, and nickel price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone is still going down. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 6125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6066 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.95% during the week. The price rose by 0.78% month on month compared with the same period last month and decreased by 22.88% compared with the same period last year.

The cyclohexanone market continued to weaken during the week. During the week, Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was lowered by 400 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton. The cost was not supported and cyclohexanone was normally supplied. However, the spot market of caprolactam continued to weaken, and the enthusiasm for outsourcing was also weak. During the week, little information was heard about chemical fiber trading, the factory and market shipment was blocked, and the actual orders continued to decline.

Raw materials, pure benzene: Shandong pure benzene market continued to decline this week. After the festival, the local refineries kept prices stable, but the overall inventory was on the high side. With the increase of port inventory in East China, the pressure of pure benzene cash withdrawal price is high, which leads to the strong bearish mentality of downstream and no traders, and they are cautious to watch the market. Local refining delivery is not smooth, the price is down.

Caprolactam: in the near future, caprolactam fundamentals are negative. On the one hand, due to the unsatisfactory control of foreign epidemic situation, the recovery of foreign trade orders of textile and clothing was not as expected, resulting in overstocking of finished products in various links of the textile industry, upward transmission of demand pressure, production reduction expectation in the industrial chain, and blocked delivery of polymerization and caprolactam.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and focuses on the guidance of factory hanging settlement information. The actual invoice price is rational, which is in line with the psychological expectations of the industry. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to the influence of high inventory and spot demand, the listing of pure benzene main business was lowered to 3100 yuan / ton twice, which weakened the cost support and was negative for the middle and lower reaches of adipic acid.

In terms of cost, the price of East China will be driven by the bottom copy next week, and the price will have a small upward space. However, the downstream demand has not really increased, and the pressure of port arrival is increasing, so it is difficult to sustain the rise only by traders’ bottom copy. From the supply side, Yangquan Fengxi plant is planned to restart in the near future. Although Jiangsu Haili has plans to restart cyclohexanone, it is uncertain whether there is external sales. All units are in normal operation, and the spot supply is expected to increase. From the demand side, the price of phenol is still higher than that of cyclohexanone, and the preparation of cyclohexanone from phenol still has no advantage. It is expected that there is still demand for cyclohexanone and the demand for terminal market is not yet available The spot pressure of caprolactam may be further increased, and the overall recovery is not optimistic. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business agency predict that the cyclohexanone market will be weak, and pay attention to the external procurement of chemical fiber market.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 3, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6000 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher or 1.69% higher than that on Monday (June 29). On July 3, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 48.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 63.63% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Supply reduction supports stable start of n-butanol in July

In July, the overall high and stable domestic n-butanol market, some areas continue to improve the transaction center. Since Monday, affected by the shutdown of some large factories for maintenance and conversion to octanol, the supply of n-butanol was reduced, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, and the market quotation was generally rising. The main downstream butyl ester factories started to operate stably, and just needed replenishment supported the market demand, and the market trading atmosphere was good. On Tuesday and Wednesday, affected by the upstream propylene market, the cost support increased, and the n-butanol market continued to rise. On Thursday, some early profit margins gradually digested, and prices in North and East China remained stable, and the price of n-butanol in some factories in South China continued to rise by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol market is small, and the manufacturers’ offer is firm. As of July 3, the reference price of domestic n-butanol ex factory is at 6000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that on Monday (June 29), or 1.69%. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 6000 / T, up 150 yuan / T or 2.56% compared with last weekend (28th). Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation reference 6000 yuan / ton, increased by 250 yuan / ton, or 4.34%, compared with last weekend (28th). The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 6000 / T, up 200 yuan / T or 3.44% compared with last weekend (28th).

Prices of n-butanol in some regions of China this week (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Price range of product name: 6 / 29 / 7 / 3

N-butanol in East China 5950-6050 6150-6250 + 200 / + 200

South China 6000-6100 6250-6350 + 250 / + 250

North China 5750-5850 5950-6050 + 200 / + 200

Northeast China 5750-5850 5950-6050 + 200 / + 200

Upstream, Shandong propylene market recovered this week, the overall upward market offer to support the cost of n-butanol. After the Dragon Boat Festival, on June 27, the market price of propylene began to rise. Until this Tuesday, the market had risen by 250 yuan / ton. Now the market transaction is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of propylene manufacturers is small, and there are many sets of devices to transmit maintenance information.

On the downstream side, affected by the rise of n-butanol market and cost support, the market of butyl acrylate rose steadily and slightly this week. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is 7750-7850 yuan / T accessories. Downstream suppliers need to purchase, and the market transaction is OK.

According to the n-butanol analysts of the business club, it is reported that the overhaul of n-butanol units in July continues to increase, the factory inventory remains low, the supply side is reduced, which gives market confidence, and the downstream replenishment is stable. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will have any upward space in the future.

Since the beginning of June, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (BR) ended its downward trend in May and started the upward Road, and its price went up sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton at the beginning of June. As of July 3, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose to 8230 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.86%.

From the point of view of raw material price, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply from the beginning of June to the beginning of July, which could not promote the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from the cost side. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the butadiene price in early June was 4140 yuan / ton, and as of July 2, the butadiene price dropped to 3445 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 16.79%.

Trend chart of all steel tire operating rate from January to June 2020

From the perspective of downstream tire industry, the operating rate of all steel tire fluctuated around 70% in May and June, with little change. The demand side is mainly rigid, but the increment is not much. It forms a bottom support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, as of mid June, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire manufacturers was around 70%.

Compared with the price of natural rubber, natural rubber has driven the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to a certain extent. At the beginning of June, the price of natural rubber was around 10120 yuan / ton, while the price of cis-1-polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton, and the price difference was around 2400 yuan / ton. The huge price difference enhanced the substitutability of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and pushed the price of cis-1,1-polybutadiene rubber to move up.

In addition, judging from the recent operation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of petrochemical manufacturers, the maintenance plan of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 80000 T / a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit, to a certain extent, stimulated the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to further increase. According to the business agency, Yanshan Petrochemical’s 120000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance from July 1, and the preliminary estimate is that the plant will be shut down for 24 days, and the factory’s inventory is low; Qilu Petrochemical’s 80000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance in the middle of July, with an estimated time of 10-15 days.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that the current price rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber is still a rebound rather than a reversal, mainly due to the small improvement in demand growth. On the one hand, as the global epidemic continues to spread, trade friction is likely to intensify, casting a shadow on future demand. In addition, it is difficult for raw material prices to rebound significantly in the short term. From the perspective of the industrial chain, it is still difficult to form a profit for the later cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. On the other hand, in the short term, driven by plant maintenance and natural rubber, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may still have a small increase space, but on the whole, the price is difficult to reach 9000 yuan / ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12175 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.61% during the month and a decrease of 1.02% compared with the same period last year.

Product: in June, the domestic aggregate MDI market was in a stalemate range, and the price fluctuation range was small, and the overall situation was weak. The average load of supply side in this month was slightly higher than that in May. Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman units were basically overhauled after the middle of June, and the devices in Ruian plant were still in shutdown state. The load of kosstro device increased slightly, and Wanhua Yantai device began to be overhauled in early July, lasting about 45 days. At the end of this month, the listing prices of major factories in July were stable, and the settlement prices in June were all on the high side.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price rose due to the rise of crude oil. In the second half of the month, the pressure of port delivery appeared, which suppressed the softening of spot price.

Aniline, aniline market rose steadily in the first ten days of the month, while prices fell in the second ten days of the month. In the first ten days of the month, Shandong Jinling and Huatai aniline plants were reduced by half, and the aniline units of Jilin kangnair and Lanzhou Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance, and the market supply was reduced.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

At present, the listed prices of suppliers in July are stable, and the specific supply policy is not clear for the time being; Shanghai factory is expected to make a statement at the beginning of next month, and the market atmosphere is stagnant and cold, and the future market is not clear. MDI analysts from the business community gather expect that the market will be temporarily deadlocked and wait-and-see in the next month. If the Shanghai factory continues to follow the market, the market price may rise slightly; if one of the Shanghai factories has a large volume of goods, the market price may go down.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market was relatively strong in June, and the spot price of the market was mostly increased. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was 5.58% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

On the upstream side of ABS, the domestic mainstream styrene prices fluctuated generally in June. According to the monitoring results of business cooperatives, the prices of sample enterprises of business cooperatives were 5550.00 yuan / ton on June 12, 5483.33 yuan / ton on June 19, and the average prices of sample enterprises were about 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 38.64% compared with the same period last year. The contradiction between supply and demand has not changed. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory of styrene has fallen down, which has a certain support for the price. However, the social stock of styrene is still at a historical high, and the increase may be restrained by more ships arriving in Hong Kong later. At present, with the enhancement of regional security inspection and epidemic prevention, the cost of warehousing freight will further rise, and the spot selling pressure will continue to increase, suppressing the future market trend;

In June, the domestic acrylonitrile market performed poorly, the operating rate of production enterprises increased, and the spot supply in the market was sufficient. The downstream should be prepared carefully, and it can be taken as soon as it is used. Demand is weak, it is difficult for businesses to ship goods, the actual transaction center is down, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;

In June, the domestic butadiene market fell to the bottom, breaking through the new low of the year. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 3456 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 16.51% during the month and a decrease of 58.85% compared with the same period last year. At present, the domestic ocean going ships are abundant in Hong Kong. Although there is a certain demand for butadiene in the downstream factories of Shandong Province, the market is still weak under the influence of the abundant supply of tank farms. The transaction of some northeast spot resources is not smooth, and the manufacturers’ prices continue to fall under pressure, and the market center of gravity falls with the whole body. Recently, the external market has been in a low level, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price has been lowered, and Shenhua Ningxia coal and Yangba butadiene plants have been restarted in the middle and late June, adding to the expected arrival of European ships. As a result, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market continues to increase. Although the start-up of major downstream industries remains relatively high, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of butadiene market rapidly under the pressure of supply side. The market of butadiene continued in the low range. In the future, supply pressure may become normal, and there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. Under the boost, the domestic butadiene market continues to fluctuate in the bottom range. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest price and transaction guidance of internal and external markets;

This month, the domestic ABS market stabilized after rising, which was due to the positive effect on the market of helmet consumption stimulated by relevant regulations of helmet safety guard action last month. Therefore, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China was almost full load operation. According to statistics, in June, the overall domestic ABS plant was started about 97%, and the total output was about 335000 tons. In the first half of 2020, the domestic ABS production was about 1828000 tons. In June, the operating rate and output of ABS polymerization plant decreased, indicating that the downstream demand was weakened. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At the end of the month, the market performance was calm, and the downstream factories were mainly cautious in stock preparation. Some brands had a narrow range of 50-150 yuan / ton, and the trend turned to a stalemate and weak.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market in June after a standstill, the price of each brand is high. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is not good, the cost side support is weak. At present, the ABS spot supply is still less, the downstream of the ABS high price goods conflict, just take the goods to the bill, merchants are currently limited profit margin. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted downward in a narrow range in the near future.