1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 15th, spot nickel fell slightly, and is now at 107816.67 yuan / ton, down 0.14% compared with the previous day, 5.2% lower than the beginning of the year, and 1.36% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 109000 yuan, then the price was weak, closing at 108570 yuan, down 0.44%. LME3 nickel closed at US $13545, down 0.40%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, although the epidemic situation in Indonesia is relatively severe, the production progress of nipi has not been significantly affected. The logistics situation of nipi from Indonesia to China has always been normal, and the commissioning progress is slightly faster than expected. Therefore, there is a large probability of sufficient supply of nipi in Indonesia. Nickel production of stainless steel accounts for about 70% of the total consumption. At present, stainless steel enters the off-season after July. Some special steel plants are expected to start maintenance in July, which is pessimistic.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: Although the current nickel price has been in a low level range, the raw material nickel pig iron supply is sufficient, and the mainstream stainless steel manufacturers may not significantly reduce the production. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

PVC continued to rise this week. According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on July 10 was 6487.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.68% higher than the beginning of the week, 3.8% higher than the beginning of the month, and 4.63% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market is full of strength and continues to rise. The active futures market led to a hot atmosphere of price rise in the spot market. This round of big rise was caused by the macro warming and fund speculation. Recently, the active stock market and the influx of funds from the real estate industry have led to a sharp rise in PVC futures, with the main contract up to 6650 yuan, which is at the high level of the year. The spot market is boosted by this, and the whole line rises. Take Tianyuan Group as an example, the price of 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6600 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 250 yuan. The price rise of mainstream enterprises is mainly concentrated in 150-250 yuan, with the focus moving upward and the low-end price of PVC Not much, corporate profits have been restored, the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At the end of the week, futures fell back, spot market growth slowed down, the continued rise of PVC did not bring hot market trading, procurement is still more cautious. Due to the low consumption season and the influence of plum rain season in the south, downstream procurement is mostly rigid demand, and the high price PVC has a wait-and-see attitude. However, with the continuous decline of inventory, the maintenance of some enterprises and the positive factors of futures, the trend of PVC is still strong, with the risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 10, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6250-6600 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 type carbide in East China is around 6500-6550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 6370-6480 yuan / ton, that in Hangzhou is 6500-6550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 6650-6750 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, the opening price of V2009 contract on October 10 was 6575, the highest price was 6650, the lowest price was 6510, and the closing price was 6540, down 10, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 276000 hands, an increase of 100000 hands. The position was 187000 hands, reduced by 7767 hands. PVC futures rose sharply, with the main contract hitting the top of 6650 yuan, which was the highest level in the year.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of the enterprise is over 70%, the market supply pressure is not great, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight. Most manufacturers are pre-sale orders, so there is no pressure on sales, and confidence in raising prices is enhanced. In the near future, there are not many enterprises planned to repair and repair, such as Shanxi Yushe, Inner Mongolia Junzheng (new plant area), Qinghai Yihua and other enterprises have maintenance plans. With the arrival of imported goods in the later stage, the maintenance enterprises resume production, increase the output and stabilize the supply. At present, the supply side is still good.

In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline. Due to the low enthusiasm of downstream purchasing in the off-season, the decline rate slowed down, and the supply of goods in South China was tight. The manufacturers reported that the shipment situation was good. There was little change in East China. The total inventory decreased to 268000 tons, which was still lower than the level in the same period last year.

In terms of demand, in the off-season consumption, the downstream did not store a large number of PVC products, but mainly purchased on demand with a small amount of replenishment. The rainy season in the South reduced the demand. Some enterprises had production reduction and production stoppage. The demand decreased to a certain extent. The downstream pipe and profile products enterprises decreased by about 10% and remained at a high level. The enthusiasm for high-end PVC prices was not high, but the demand for real estate was still high In, PVC still has a certain supporting force, but the strength is weakened.

On July 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.62/barrel, down $1.28. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 42.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.94 U.S. dollars. On the 9th, the European ethylene market fell, with FD northwest Europe offering 769-779 US dollars / ton, down 25 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 750-758 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton. The Asian ethylene market remained stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 795-805 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 745-755 USD / T. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 335-353 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States is mainly up in recent years. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

The price of blue carbon in the upstream market is low consolidation, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. But the downstream PVC price high consolidation, the rise is weak, downstream customer demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2500 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide in the future market will drop slightly.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that at present, the PVC fundamentals have not changed much, the macro warming and the futures boost, the PVC spot market is rising, and the corporate profits can be repaired. However, in the off-season demand, the downstream has limited acceptance ability for high-end PVC, and the enthusiasm for pursuing rise is not high. It is expected that the trend of PVC will remain firm in the short term, with a risk of callback, but it is not easy to go down sharply.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market price was stable this week, with the average domestic price of 3680 yuan / ton as of Friday, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

The price of isomeric xylene was stable on the whole this week. Affected by the lower profit margin and lower operating rate of downstream PX manufacturers, the demand for isomeric xylene slowed down. Compared with the previous period, the market price was slightly sluggish and the transaction was not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3670 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain outlook of crude oil supply and demand, the future market continues to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the meeting news of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss a record production reduction agreement. According to the current arrangement, the production reduction agreement will last until the end of July, and then the reduction range will begin to shrink.

Upstream, crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated slightly this week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand forecast for 2020, and US energy companies reduced the number of active rigs to a record low for the 10th consecutive week, supporting oil prices. But a record number of new cases in the United States has hit expectations of a rapid recovery in fuel consumption. Long space back and forth saw, overall maintain shock trend. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 1.21%, Brent futures was down 0.77%, WTI futures was down 2.28%, and Dubai futures was up 2.25%.

In terms of downstream, PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 521 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3560 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 450 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline slightly next week. The price of ortho benzene / FOB in Korea is expected to remain stable at USD 4400 / FOB.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA inventory situation in the supply cost side. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss the record production reduction agreement, as well as the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3490 yuan / ton, up 0.29% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the overall price of toluene was stable, affected by the lower demand for blended oil, the demand for toluene decreased, the market trading atmosphere was not active, and the price was slightly weak. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3400 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain outlook of crude oil supply and demand, the future market continues to pay attention to the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the meeting news of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss a record production reduction agreement. According to the current arrangement, the production reduction agreement will last until the end of July, and then the reduction range will begin to shrink.

Upstream, crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated slightly this week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its demand forecast for 2020, and US energy companies reduced the number of active rigs to a record low for the 10th consecutive week, supporting oil prices. But a record number of new cases in the United States has hit expectations of a rapid recovery in fuel consumption. Long space back and forth saw, overall maintain shock trend. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 1.21%, Brent futures was down 0.77%, WTI futures was down 2.28%, and Dubai futures was up 2.25%.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market has begun to stabilize. At present, the domestic outbound quotation with bill of lading refers to RMB 10000-10300 / T, and that of Shanghai with bill of lading is around RMB 10500 / T. it is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 521 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15 to discuss the record production reduction agreement, as well as the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market toluene price will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong remained stable this week, and the average price of chloroform in Shandong remained at about 2000 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 2.56% over the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong: 440000 tons / year, 70%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 90%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 70-80%

At present, the overall operation of chloroform enterprises in Shandong is stable, the market operating rate is not high, some enterprises are still mainly for their own use, and the downstream market demand is still insufficient. Due to the cost pressure, there is not much room for enterprises to reduce their prices. The market is in a dilemma between supply and demand. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2000 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, the market situation of methanol shows regional differences. In Northwest China, some units are shut down for maintenance, and some upstream factories are reluctant to sell. In addition, with the rise of methanol futures price, manufacturers actively push up the price. However, the market inventory is high, and there is no hope of destocking in the short term. The overall transaction atmosphere of the industry is general, at present, about 1657 yuan / ton. The rise and fall of liquid chlorine market are mutual and market demand Some enterprises have accumulated a certain amount of inventory. With the parking and maintenance of some enterprises, the pressure of enterprises’ inventory is relieved. At present, the average price is about 600-800 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, the downstream R22 market of dichloromethane is good supported by the cost side, the R22 quota is insufficient, and the price remains high. Under the dominant position of the seller, R22 trend is strong, at present, about 15000-17000 yuan / T; pharmaceutical and agricultural diluents and other industries mainly purchase rigid demand, and support the chloroform market is flat.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the demand support of the downstream market of chloroform market is insufficient, the enterprises are limited by the pressure of production cost, and the price reduction space is limited. It is expected that the horizontal arrangement will be the main trend in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices soared 5.2% to 53280 yuan / ton on Monday after rising continuously on Thursday, and rose more than 2500 yuan / ton in a single day, setting a two-year high. LME copper opened slightly higher today and then rose. The price of LME copper fluctuated after reaching 6633 US dollars. As of the end of Asian market, LME copper closed at US $6589, up 2.49%. Shanghai copper’s main force rose sharply to 53520 yuan after opening today, closing at 52880 yuan, up 4.71%.

Another copper mine in Chile

Chilean trade unions announced on Friday that workers from the zaldivar copper mine under Antofagasta voted to land, with 99% of its members rejecting the collective wage agreement and deciding to strike on July 15. Antofagasta said it would seek a government led settlement and, in combination with the copper business, hoped to reach an agreement through dialogue.

On July 13, centinela, another copper mine under Antofagasta, will also hold a worker’s vote. In 2019, the mine’s concentrate output will be about 196000 tons, and the refined copper production will be about 81000 tons. The total copper production will be 277000 tons, accounting for nearly 4.8% of Chile’s copper production. If the mine strikes, the border impact on Chile’s copper supply will be relatively large.

Under the same external environment, Peru and some other South American countries have taken strict isolation measures to control the epidemic situation. As a result, the output in the first half of the year shrank significantly. However, Chile’s mine control measures were not strict. Although the production increased steadily, there were still great hidden dangers. In recent weeks, with the spread of new coronavirus in Chile, thousands of miners were infected, Miners have tightened safety regulations, tightened shift patterns and suspended construction projects, adding to concerns about the yet to be seen impact on production.

Output of Chile copper mine may decrease by 100000 tons in the second half of the year

Changes in copper production in Chile

According to the data released by the national copper Council of Chile, Chile’s copper production increased by 3.4% to 2.37 million tons from January to May this year. Compared with the sharp decline in Peru’s output, Chile’s output has increased against the trend, which shows that the Chilean government has deliberately played down the epidemic control of mines in order to protect the economy. The consequence of belittling the virus is that not only has Chile’s domestic epidemic worsened recently, but also its miners’ infection rate has been rising.

With the continuous progress of the epidemic situation, the government has to take stronger isolation measures to control the epidemic, which will cause interference to production and projects under construction. In serious cases, production will be stopped. In the second half of the year, Chile’s copper mine production may shrink. The direct or indirect interference caused by the epidemic situation may exceed 100000 metal tons.

Copper stocks rose in the previous period

Copper inventory in the previous period

As shown in the above figure, recently, the inventory of copper in the previous period has rebounded slightly. As of July 10, the copper inventory of the previous period continued to rise to a one month high, and the weekly inventory increased by more than 20% to 137336 tons.

LME inventory hits a new low in four months

LME copper inventory

As shown in the chart above, LME copper inventories have been falling in recent days. The London Metal Exchange (LME) released data on Friday to 181075 tons, which is about a four month low.

The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.01% in June

In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod-making enterprises was 78.66%, with a month on month decrease of 1.70 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.01 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises is 80.10%, that of medium-sized enterprises is 47.27%, and that of small enterprises is 12.00%. The operating rate in June still showed a small growth, mainly due to the continuous good power cable orders, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in June was still at a high level above 100.

However, in July, the backlog of orders in the early stage was basically completed, and the growth of new orders in the off-season effect was not as good as that in the earlier period. The high copper price also inhibited the demand for terminal procurement, and enterprises felt more obvious about the weakening of orders. In addition, many enterprises mentioned that the impact of scrap copper rod on the order of refined copper rod is obvious, especially in some refined copper rod factories in North China, and even the inventory of finished products is overstocked. Affected by the weakening of orders, copper rod processing costs also fell.

In view of the above situation, the copper analysts of the nonferrous metals branch of the business association believe that: the current demand for copper downstream is fair, and the hidden inventory is not much, so the possibility of large accumulation of future stocks is small. Moreover, the current situation of Chile’s epidemic situation is still grim, there is uncertainty in the future copper supply, and it will take some time for the complete liberalization of scrap copper import. Therefore, the supply side is still tight. In addition, the Federal Reserve has adopted extremely loose monetary policy, so it is expected that copper prices will remain high.

On July 13, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market was 15343.33 yuan / ton, and the spot aluminum price exceeded 15000 yuan / ton for the first time in the year.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market on July 13 was 15343.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.72% compared with the average market price of 14376.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), 5.43% higher than the valley value of average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton (March 24), an increase of 36.55%.

Rising logic support

1. The social low inventory pattern is formed

From the current high level of 1.67 million tons to less than 800 thousand tons, the basic inventory of aluminum ingots in China has decreased significantly.

2. Expected improvement of downstream demand

The auto market and real estate market continued to pick up. In June, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.235 million and 2.3 million respectively, up 6.3% and 4.8% on a month on month basis, and increased by 22.5% and 11.6% year on year, respectively. The production and sales both reached a new record in June. In terms of real estate, the market turnover in June recovered strongly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2%.

With the continuous progress of new infrastructure, the new demand for aluminum is expected to be strong. New infrastructure construction, such as 5g base station construction, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and urban rail transit, new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and other fields are developing strongly, and the new demand for aluminum is expected.

3. Monetary easing policy

With frequent monetary easing policies in various countries, central banks of various countries have “opened sluice gates to release water”, the liquidity of capital market is relatively released, and the attribute of non-ferrous plate is strong. In addition, the recent price is relatively low, and the capital market is highly concerned.

Future expectations

The impact of money making effect, by buying up not buying down market expectations, the collective outbreak of nonferrous plate, the rate will last for a period of time. It is expected that in the near future, the main trend is to maintain a firm and good operation, and the aluminum price is likely to stand at the 15000 line.

According to foreign media reports, Vietnam exported 110000 tons of natural rubber in June, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% and a month on month increase of 46.9%; the export volume was US $130 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25% and a month on month increase of 44.5%.

In addition, the average export price of Vietnam’s natural rubber fell by 16.9% to 1182 US dollars per ton in June, resulting in an average export price of 2.9% in the first half of the year to 1330 US dollars per ton.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam, rubber exports have fallen sharply in the past five months compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, the price of domestic latex in Vietnam was still at a low level in June, and it was expected to continue to show a downward trend.

Previously, ANRPC, the association of natural rubber producers, said that the global demand for natural rubber would be on a downward trend this year, with the new crown outbreak causing disruption in the natural rubber supply chain, affecting about 12.84 million tons of consumption. At present, the demand of natural rubber in China, the United States and the European Union is still very low. The drop of oil price will also exert pressure on the price of natural rubber, and the price of natural rubber will continue to fall in a short time.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since May, the price of domestic cocoon and silk market has rebounded under the support of domestic sales orders and cocoon cost. However, the pressure on the industry fundamentals has increased in the middle and late June. In addition, with the arrival of the off-season, both domestic and foreign markets are suffering from the pressure of demand, and the price begins to fall. In July, the cocoon market continued to be weak. As of July 10, the domestic market average price was 89500 yuan / ton, down 5.79% from the beginning of the month.

The raw silk market price also fluctuated downward. As of July 10, the average market price was 271000 yuan / ton, down 7.03% from the beginning of the month. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 90000 yuan / ton in Jiaxing of Zhejiang Province, 260000 yuan / ton of raw silk, 89000 yuan / ton of dried cocoon and 277000 yuan / ton of raw silk in Guangxi. International market, India as of July 8, hybrid cocoon 135-263 rupees / kg, secondary cocoons 400-450 rupees / kg, poly cocoons 300-325 rupees / kg, Erhua silk 2650-3300 rupees / kg. (1 rupee = 0.0936 RMB)

At the beginning of July, the fifth batch of cocoons continued to appear on the market in Yizhou and other places in Hechi region of Guangxi. Most sericulture farmers chose to start cutting mulberry gardens in summer after the end of this batch. In some cocoon stations in Qingyuan Town, Yizhou, the price of cocoon on silk reeling is generally about 27-28 yuan, and the purchase price of double cocoon for making shuanggongmian is about 27 yuan per kilogram. Yizhou Tongde piece’s fifth batch of cocoon listing is coming to an end, and the purchase price is generally around 22-28 yuan per kilogram, which reflects the general price. For the fifth batch of cocoons listed on the market in Desheng, Yizhou, some cocoon stations strictly received cocoon quality, which reflected that the quantity on the market was small, and the quality of fresh cocoons received was generally good, and the purchase price was about 27.4 yuan per kilogram. Some cocoon stations received fresh cocoon quality gap is large, the price is about 22-28 yuan per kilogram. The fifth batch of cocoons of Yizhou Fulong tablets are gradually on the market, and the price is generally around 24-27 yuan per kilogram. Similarly, in Huanjiang County, the purchase price of reeling fresh cocoons is generally around 22-28 yuan per kilogram.

The second spring cocoon in Gaoxian County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province is on the market with good quality and high yield per unit area. The average yield of cocoon is more than 45 kg. If the 2 yuan prize is added, the price is generally above 37 yuan per kilogram and the highest is 41 yuan. The major cocoon stations in Yangcheng County of Shanxi Province have successively opened scales to purchase fresh cocoons. This year, there are more than 6000 spring silkworm varieties. It is estimated that more than 250000 kilograms of cocoons will be produced, and the unit price of spring cocoons is about 40 yuan / kg. The first batch of summer cocoons in Songxian County of Henan Province has also been purchased.

Entering the midsummer, the main production area will cut mulberry garden in summer, and the cocoon listing will be suspended. At this stage, it is in the traditional off-season of textile industry, the downstream demand is obviously weaker than that in June, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. The overall market of domestic market is weak, and export orders have not recovered well. The demand for orders and small batch proofing orders are maintained. There is pressure on capital return, and now we still mainly buy as you use them. In the off-season, the industry chain has been cast a shadow again. Weaving enterprises generally reflect that the shipment is slow and the inventory has an increasing trend.

Domestic silk import and export data show that from January to may, the total import and export volume of China’s real silk goods was 559 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 29.81%, accounting for 0.52% of China’s total import and export of textiles and clothing. The export volume of real silk goods was 484 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 30.52%, accounting for 0.49% of China’s textile and clothing exports. From January to may, the import volume of real silk goods was US $75.326 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.84%, accounting for 0.82% of the import value of textiles and clothing.

Business agency analysts believe that the continued downturn in the downstream market has become the biggest upward pressure on cocoon silk prices. At present, there is no good news release in domestic and foreign markets. Due to the superimposed influence of public health events and the arrival of traditional off-season, it is difficult to get goods in the spot market of raw silk, and the transaction power is obviously insufficient. The actual transaction price can be negotiated. In the current off-season of domestic sales and sluggish export, businesses purchase on demand, market demand is weak, product inventory continues to increase, the overall wait-and-see dominant, the fundamentals are flat, and there is no rebound signal. Overall, it is expected that cocoon silk prices will continue to maintain a downward trend of shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of July 9, the market reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore was 380 yuan / ton, which was 6 yuan / ton lower than the price on the first day of the month, down 1.72%. Compared with the price at the beginning of June, the average price was reduced by 13 yuan / ton, down 3.39%.

In July, the overall light and stable operation of phosphate ore market in some areas was difficult to offset the cold shipment, and the quotation was slightly reduced

In the first week of July, there was no fluctuation in the overall market of phosphate ore, which still maintained a light and stable operation. At present, the terminal market demand is poor and the performance is weak. The phosphorus ore market is cold and there are few new orders. This week, some mining enterprises in Guizhou can hardly withstand the pressure of cold shipment. In order to stimulate the market, the quotation has been slightly reduced, with an adjustment range of 10-20 yuan / ton. The market situation in other regions is mainly stable. By the end of the 9th, Guizhou: the phosphate ore market was stable and the market was moving slightly. Some mining enterprises lowered the price of phosphate ore to 280 yuan / ton at the low end of 30% phosphate rock, and the reference quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore for main truck plate was around 300-330 yuan / ton. Hubei Province: the market of phosphate ore is running smoothly. The main ex factory quotation of 28% phosphate rock is around 360-370 yuan / ton, and that of 30% phosphate rock is around 400 yuan / ton. The price of 28% grade phosphate rock in Liushugou of Hubei Province is 370 yuan / ton, and the latest quotation of Yichang ship plate of 28% phosphate rock in Hubei Xingfa is 370 yuan / ton. Yunnan: the market of phosphate ore is stable for the time being. The quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 275 yuan / T.

According to national data, China’s phosphate ore output (equivalent to 30% P2O5) was 8.098 million tons in May, an increase of 525000 tons compared with the output in April (7.573 million tons). At present, the total output of phosphate rock this year is 27.402 million tons, which is – 14.3% lower than that of the same period last year (29.229 million tons).

According to the information of China’s phosphate ore production in 2020:

Indicators: May 2020 April 2020 March 2020 February 2020

The current output value of phosphate rock (converted into 30% P2O5) is 809.8 757.3 545.4—

The cumulative output value of phosphate rock (converted into 30% P2O5) is 2740.2 1932.8 1337.0-723.7

The output of phosphate rock (converted into 30% P2O5) increased by 8.57.6 – 30.3 year on year–

The cumulative production growth (%) of phosphate rock (containing 30% P2O5) was – 14.3 – 20.9 – 29.1 – 30.9

On the downstream side, at present, the spot supply of yellow phosphorus Market in Yunnan is tight, and the transaction price of new orders of some enterprises in the field has increased slightly. The current net phosphorus ex factory acceptance transaction in Yunnan refers to 14000-14200 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market maintained stable consolidation, increased supply, the general situation of enterprises’ delivery, and the domestic demand market showed weak performance.

The phosphorus ore analysts of the business society believe that in recent years, the phosphate ore market has always been weak, the downstream stock enthusiasm is not high, the yellow phosphorus market has slightly improved in recent days, the enterprise’s price intention is strong, whether the future market can bring some good support to the phosphate ore market remains to be seen. In view of the current market environment, the short-term phosphate rock market is dominated by narrow range consolidation operation, and it is still possible for some enterprises to adjust the phosphate ore quotation in order to stimulate the shock of shipment.