Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on July 24 was 31.32, unchanged with yesterday, 68.68% lower than 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 14.81% higher than 27.28, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: price trend of natural rubber mainstream from January to July 2020

From the beginning of January to June 2020, the overall market of natural rubber showed a downward trend and then a small upward trend. The price of natural rubber at the end of March and the beginning of April was a periodic bottom. In May, the Tianjiao Jedi rebounded and fluctuated upward. In June, it continued the upward trend of last month and first rose to the recent highest point. Then, due to insufficient demand support, the price turned downward, and then there was a certain degree of shock rebound. The current month closed About ten thousand yuan. According to the data of natural rubber (bid 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, in July, the mainstream quotation of Baodao whole milk market was about 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day and 10560 yuan / ton on the 24th, up 4.67% so far this month. Among them, the price of 10560 yuan / ton on the 16th and 24th was the highest price so far this month, and the 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day was the lowest price of this month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 4.67%.

Factor analysis:

First, the production of new glue. 2020 is a special year. In previous years, it should be a time when a large number of new gum have been put on the market. However, this year, affected by weather disasters, diseases and insect pests, especially the epidemic situation, the production of natural rubber in China has to be delayed from January to February. However, the actual production is very small. At present, China’s domestic area has entered the rainy season, and the production of blister glue and new rubber is unlikely to be very large. In Xishuangbanna, this year’s total latex was almost never obtained. The second standard glue was in short supply in various years, and other brands of glue were often out of stock. In addition, the import index was not released, and the shortage of local supply in southern production areas continued for a long time. The epidemic prevention and control of rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia has achieved certain results, and some economic activities have recovered. In July, the weather in Southeast Asia was better, and the output of natural rubber increased month on month, which was lower than that of last year, but the overall tapping work was slow. Since the middle and late June, the rainfall in Thailand’s main production areas has decreased, and the output of raw materials has gradually increased, but the output is lower than that of the same period last year, the purchase price of glue has been lowered, the overall supply of raw materials is tight, the profit of rubber processing is relatively thin, and the shipping date of some standard rubber is delayed. Malaysia’s main production areas have good weather and normal tapping, and the output of raw materials has increased gradually, but the current production is lower than that in the same period of previous years. As the world’s largest latex glove producer, the demand for raw materials has increased significantly due to the epidemic situation. Indonesia’s main production area is in the peak season, but due to the closure of domestic and foreign tire and automobile manufacturing enterprises, many rubber processing plants are facing a sharp reduction in order pressure, which seriously affects the local tapping enthusiasm. Vietnam’s main production area is in the rainy season, but it has little impact on the overall output. The supply is basically normal, but the output is definitely lower than that in the same period in the past. At present, the supply of 3L rubber is increasing, but the inventory is still at a low level, which forms a certain support for the rubber price. The supply of Cambodia’s production areas is normal, but due to the strict control of border trade, the number of raw materials exported to Vietnam has decreased significantly.

Second, import and export. China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 534000 tons in June 2020, up 21% year-on-year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14. From January to June 2020, China imported a total of 3.313 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.9% compared with 3.075 million tons in the same period of 2019. According to the latest data released by Vietnam customs, the total rubber export volume of Vietnam in June 2020 was 136400 tons, up 82.11% month on month and 11.08% year on year; from January to June 2020, the total rubber export volume of Vietnam was 481600 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.81%. In June, the export volume to China was 109000 tons, with a month on month increase of 82.92% and a year-on-year increase of 59.48%; from January to June 2020, the total export volume to China was 339800 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.54%. In June, Vietnam rubber imports totaled 72200 tons, up 22.58% month on month. The above two groups of data show that China’s imports of natural rubber increased significantly in June, the production demand of enterprises was more active than in the earlier stage, and the market confidence was improved to a certain extent.

Third, inventory. As of the 24th, warehouse receipts and futures inventories of the exchange were 237846 tons and 230140 tons, respectively, down 5041 tons and 970 tons from last week. It is reported that the dominant inventory of Qingdao and Shanghai ports and the hidden inventory of production and marketing areas are about 1.1 million tons. It is estimated that the stock of natural rubber in China will reach about 1.5 million tons. The inventory of natural rubber in East China is still high. This is in sharp contrast to the shortage of goods in Yunnan.

Fourth, downstream demand. On July 16, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 68.83%, up 0.53% from the previous week; the operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 64.74%, up 0.59% from the previous week. The overseas epidemic situation is repeated, and the recovery of tire export orders is slow, and the uncertainty is large in the later stage. It is reported that at present, the domestic market demand is occupied by the first-line tire brand promotion. The inventory of some manufacturers in Shandong Province has increased. With the advent of the rainy season, the production and sales of tire manufacturers are impacted, and the operating rate of the tire industry is expected to return. In addition, some tire enterprises usually arrange equipment maintenance in the hot season of July and August, and it is expected that the operating rate of the tire industry will decline slightly in the future. From the perspective of foreign markets, in the first half of 2020, the demand for new cars in European passenger car market will shrink by 39.5% to 5101669 units. Among the five major markets, Spain had the largest decline of 50.9%; Germany had the smallest decline of 34.5%; Italy, the United Kingdom and France had 46.1%, 48.5% and 38.6% respectively. Globally, with the lifting of the epidemic blockade and the restart of economic activities, automobile sales slowly recover. However, the China Automobile Industry Association predicts that China’s automobile sales will fall by 10% – 20% this year. According to the prediction of Bloomberg intelligence, the automobile sales in Europe are expected to drop by 20% this year. Tire demand is worrying.

Fifth, regional differences. As early as the middle of May, the situation of shortage of natural rubber in Yunnan, especially in Banna, began to appear in the middle of May. All kinds of local rubber were in short supply, which led to the continuous firmness of rubber price. According to local traders, the delay in listing of new rubber this year and the fact that some import indexes have not been released in previous years have resulted in the shortage of local supply. At the end of last month and in the middle of this month, the Many articles have analyzed the regional differences of domestic natural rubber market in detail. As in July, this situation still exists, resulting in the regional transmission of goods. The shortage of goods in Banna is still severe. Local traders say that at present, the local tapping volume is not large, and the supply is short, especially the second standard rubber. The new standard second rubber in 2020 has never been obtained, and the original plan of large-scale listing of new rubber has not been realized.

Sixth, trade friction. On June 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the preliminary findings of the fourth review on anti-dumping of passenger car and light truck tires against China. Two compulsory responding enterprises obtained 76.46% of the dumping duty rate for refusing to participate in the investigation, and seven enterprises received zero tax rate. On the 26th and 27th of last month, the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India issued a series of announcements to initiate anti-dumping investigations on China’s nitrile rubber and rubber additive px-13. Recently, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) protested against the US tire anti-dumping investigation. FTI believes that the United States will seriously affect the Thai industry. Affected by the epidemic situation, Thai industry showed a shrinking trend in the first half of the year. Kriangli, chairman of the FTI, said that the investigation was affected by Sino US trade relations. In recent years, Thailand has continuously attracted foreign investment and established export bases for tire, food and other products. At present, five Chinese tire companies have invested in Thailand, and their main business is tire export. “The United States is observing this phenomenon and trying to set up trade barriers against Chinese products.” Kriangri said that the Thai government should closely monitor the situation and take measures to deal with the US anti-dumping charges. Previously, the United States determined that Thailand’s tire dumping margin was 106% – 218%. The U.S. Department of Commerce will issue the final ruling on November 9, saying that if Thai enterprises are found to have dumping practices, the United States will raise tariffs on related products. The FTI said the investigation opened on July 26 and Thailand would try to clarify the charges. The international economic situation is not smooth, which has a serious impact on the circulation of rubber products.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business agency believes that the growth of new rubber in the production area is slow, the recovery of foreign orders is unpredictable, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent under the situation of high inventory and uncertain demand, and the possibility of a substantial price rise is small. But after all, the price of natural rubber has been at a low level for a long time, and the decline rate will not be great; the shortage of goods in Yunnan, especially in Banna, still supports the price, especially the local price. Under the comprehensive effect, maintain the view that the future market of natural rubber fluctuates slightly until a large number of new gum are listed.

Magnesium market trend

On July 27, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run smoothly, with the overall range of 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 13000-13100 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 27th was 12933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of July (7.1).

After the price tends to be stable, the market should maintain stable operation

After the price of magnesium ingot fell in July, it began to stabilize recently. It is learned that at present, there is not much trading in the market. Domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they basically purchase on demand and have little willingness to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to reduce the price and promote sales, and the willingness to stop production and repair is relatively higher, and the market supply-demand game tends to be stable. It is expected that some factories will shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the magnesium price at the supply side will be favorable to some extent. However, based on the reality of weak demand, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be given priority to in the later stage, and the change of downstream purchasing rhythm will be focused in the later stage.

On July 23, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at $41.07/barrel, down $0.83. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of main contracts falling by $0.99 to $43.31/barrel, while oil price fell by about $1. The market was worried about whether the US economic stimulus package could be reached. In addition, the number of jobless claims increased at the beginning of last week, the number of superimposed epidemic cases increased sharply, and concerns about future fuel demand increased.

The U.S. stock market fell sharply on Thursday, with the S & P 500 index falling by more than 1%, stopping from the previous four days of continuous gains and the largest one-day decline since June 26. The increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits announced by the U.S. Department of labor at the beginning of last week was the fuse for the decline of the stock market, and the fundamental reason was that the increasingly serious epidemic situation had brought a heavy blow to the economy. At the macro level, the bad news spread to the oil market, and the oil price fell by about 2%.

Prior to that, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the increase of crude oil inventory in the week of 17 announced by API and EIA of the United States both exceeded expectations. The negative atmosphere has gradually enveloped the national oil market, but the price fluctuation is not big, which is mainly covered by the good news of the basic landing of EU recovery fund and breakthrough in vaccine. However, the market is generally worried about whether the US economic stimulus plan can be reached in Congress. This has cast a shadow on the current complex oil market. Oil prices also closed lower amid uncertainty.

At present, the factors restricting crude oil to continue to rise are still demand concerns. According to the data of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), the average crude oil processing capacity of US refineries last week was 14.2 million barrels / day, which was lower than 14.4 million barrels / day two weeks ago. Due to the decline in fuel demand, US refiners have cut crude oil processing capacity for the second consecutive week. Since the beginning of May, fuel demand has continued to grow strongly. At present, the signs of slowing down indicate that the market has changed. The U.S. epidemic is becoming more and more serious, with a surge of new cases in some states, the restart of social isolation measures, and the reduction of road traffic volume, resulting in a weak gasoline consumption. In addition, aviation kerosene demand also decreased significantly. According to relevant data, in the week of 17, distillate oil supply was 20% lower than the average level of the previous five years, and aviation fuel supply was 38% lower than the five-year average level.

On the whole, the business club believes that under the background of the rising epidemic situation, it may be difficult for the oil market to get out of the independent upward market. There are too many uncertain factors in the market. At present, under the premise of strict production reduction and supply reduction in oil producing countries, the international oil market is basically in the stage of supply and demand rebalancing. At present, the oil price is also stuck at the $40 level. It is expected that this balance will not be broken in the near future, and the oil price will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market has been declining in the past three months. As of July 23, the average price of spandex 40d specification was 31100 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.12%.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 35000-36000 34000-35000 28000-28500

Shandong 36000-37000 34500-35500 28500-29000

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29000

Jiangsu 35000-36000 34000-35000 29000-31200

At present, the spandex industry is about 80% of the start-up. The supply of the factory is abundant. There is some resistance to the factory’s shipment. In addition, the inventory in the early stage is overstocked, and some manufacturers make a bargain at a low price. At present, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 35000-36000 yuan / ton; for 30d spandex, it is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; for 40d spandex, it is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is discussed in detail.

Summary of production and sales trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Address of enterprise with annual capacity of 10000 tons

Shanxi 3D and Shanxi Hongdong 5 are in parking, and there is no plan to restart temporarily

Yizheng Dalian Jiangsu Yizheng 4 parking

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical Ningxia Yinchuan 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua Henan Hebi 6 parking

The load of Xinjiang Meike Xinjiang Korla 5 unit is not high

It is planned to overhaul the 4.6 unit in Lanshan Tunhe and Changji, Xinjiang on the 25th

In the raw material market, the domestic PTMEG market is weak in operation, and the supply is relatively stable. The supplier is mainly responsible for receiving orders and negotiating with the company to ship. The cost pressure still exists and the profit margin is limited. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 13800-14800 yuan / ton, and the actual negotiation price is 13800-14300 yuan / ton. In terms of units, the PTMEG industry started 50% of the total, Shanxi sanwei 50000 tons, Yizheng Dalian 40000 tons, Henan energy and chemical 60000 tons of plant shutdown, there is no restart plan; Sinopec Great Wall energy and chemical 92000 tons, Xinjiang Meike 50000 tons of load is not high; Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe 46000 tons of units are planned to be overhauled around the 25th. In addition, the market focus of pure MDI is downward, and the factory’s shipping pressure is still strong. The suppliers are willing to negotiate the shipment. The market quotation in South China, East China and North China is 12500-13000 yuan / ton, which is 800-1000 yuan / ton lower than that in April.

Under the background of the current textile off-season, the actual demand capacity of the downstream is limited, and the rigid demand procurement is mainly used. The market starts generally in Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province. The starting level of circular knitting machine market is maintained at 40% and that of wrapping yarn market is maintained at 5-60%. The overall starting level of yarn wrapping enterprises in Zhangjiagang is maintained at 5-60%. The market in Fujian is not high, with lace at 30-40% and warp knitting at 50-60%. The orders of enterprises in Guangdong Province follow up stably, and the start-up of circular knitting machine and warp knitting market is maintained at 50-70%.

From the perspective of the textile industry, it is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles reached 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, with a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, driven by the significant increase in the export of related anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, China’s textile and clothing exports achieved the first year-on-year positive growth in this year. According to China’s customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s textile and clothing cumulative export volume is 125.188 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, of which the cumulative export of textiles is 74.103.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 27.81%.

Despite the rapid growth of textile exports driven by the surge in the export of anti epidemic materials such as masks, the overall consumption confidence of the international market has continued to decline, and the consumption capacity has declined significantly. The export situation of clothing, home textiles, shoes and hats and other terminal fields is still not optimistic, among which the export of China’s clothing products continues to decline. According to the customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s accumulated clothing exports amounted to US $51.084 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%, still continuing the downward trend, accounting for 40.8% of the total textile and clothing exports in the same period.

Business agency analysts believe that the current spandex market is weak and stable, manufacturers are still starting high, and the supply of goods remains adequate. The raw material market trend is tired, the cost side support is insufficient, the downstream start-up level remains low, orders continue to be just needed, new orders follow-up is less, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, it is expected that the spandex market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example, the price of titanium dioxide is stable this week, with an average price of 13533.33 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

From the end of June to the beginning of July, titanium dioxide enterprises successively issued price adjustment letters. According to incomplete statistics, 27 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices, including Panzhihua Hengtong titanium industry, CNKI titanium dioxide Co., Ltd., Ningbo Xinfu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., Jinpu Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., Panzhihua Dongfang Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dayong Communication Co., Ltd., Guangxi Xilong Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. and longmang Bailian Group Co., Ltd. have successively announced price increases, with the mainstream range of about 500 yuan / ton. From the current price implementation of each manufacturer, it has basically realized the effect of stopping falling and a small rebound of some models. It has played a positive role in boosting the domestic price market and has a positive impact on the stability of titanium dioxide market confidence.

According to customs data, from January to may 2020, China exported 485800 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 22.02% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the export volume in the first quarter was 331300 tons, accounting for 42.81% of the total output data; the export volume in April and may was relatively obvious, with the export volume of 88100 tons and 66500 tons, respectively, accounting for 30.06% and 24.54% of the total output data. The main reasons for the change in export volume are: poor domestic demand in the first quarter, manufacturers’ trading focus tends to export, and the outbreak of overseas epidemic in the second quarter, leading to the reduction of exports.

At present, with the control of the epidemic situation in various countries, the downstream demand will gradually recover, the trading situation will be improved compared with the previous period, and overseas orders will gradually flow back. Driven by the demand, the price of titanium dioxide will stop falling and rebound. This week, the price of titanium dioxide remained stable. The factory price of domestic rutile titanium dioxide with tax was 12000-14500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide was 10300-11800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide was 15500-20000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, this week Panxi area titanium concentrate price high operation, titanium ore supply shortage, some mining enterprises suspended external quotation. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is 920-960 yuan / ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is 1380-1450 yuan / ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The cost of raw ore and titanium middlings has been boosted step by step, and the price of titanium concentrate has been firm and upward. In addition, the outflow of spot goods has declined and the main downstream titanium dioxide has rebounded against the trend, so the miners are reluctant to sell.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: titanium dioxide market leader rose, some of the market titanium dioxide model tension, price rebound. At present, the price of raw materials is tense and high, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide increases again. It is expected that the market price of titanium dioxide will gradually rise on the basis of stable market price in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As of July 23, Jiangsu styrene spot was about 5300 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton or 1.12% compared with 5360 yuan / ton on July 16. Recently, styrene support was insufficient, and some terminal demand was weakened.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of price: as of July 23, the transaction volume of Jiangsu common materials was 7900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with July 16, and 8200 yuan / ton of fuel was flat compared with July 16.

3、 Future forecast

The overall EPS market performance is relatively rigid, with traders’ shipping intention increasing. However, due to the temporary failure of some EPS devices to produce normally, the supply of goods in East and South China is still tight, and some traders have no intention to make a substantial profit margin for shipment, thus tightening the market risk preference.

1、 Price trend

The average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China on July 24 was 3600 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last week, according to business agency data.

On July 23, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3565 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton or 2.59% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 23, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1412000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons or 0.71% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 12200 tons or 0.86% compared with Monday. Although the shipment is not smooth, there is no obvious accumulation of inventory due to less arrivals.

In terms of shipment, this week, the average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port was about 6000 tons, and that of Taicang was about 7000 tons, which was lower than that of last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 51%, and that of polyester is about 88%, which is not obvious compared with last week.

In terms of equipment, the overhaul time of ethylene glycol unit with an annual output of 360000 tons of Xinhang energy in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, will be postponed to July 25, with an estimated maintenance time of about 25 days. 8% of the world’s ethylene glycol production capacity will be shut down or reduced by the end of July, involving more than 3 million tons.

In terms of futures, due to the positive demand of downstream polyester industry and the expected reduction of import sources, ethylene glycol futures have been more volatile recently.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the decrease of arrival volume this week, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to rise to a certain extent, and the market price has increased. However, due to the long-term high inventory and low shipment level, the price support is weak. Although there is a follow-up news of polyester plant restart, but the loom operating rate has declined, the terminal demand is insufficient. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of ethylene glycol will still be in a volatile situation.

This week, the domestic rare earth market price trend tends to be stable as a whole, heavy rare earth prices maintain a high volatility trend, and some products in the light rare earth market slightly callback. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on July 24 was 345 points, which was the same as yesterday, 65.50% lower than the highest point of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 27.31% higher than the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the weekend, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 294000 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from 295000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 371500 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 372000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the price of neodymium oxide was 311000 yuan / ton, which was flat this week; the price of metal neodymium was 392500 yuan / ton, which was stable this week, and the price trend of rare earth such as praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal praseodymium Temporarily stable.

In recent years, the domestic light rare earth industry is mainly due to the negative downstream procurement, strong wait-and-see attitude, reduced trading volume, loss of support for manufacturers’ prices, a slight correction in some prices in the light rare earth market, and a stable price trend of other products. In recent years, the demand and stock up situation of permanent magnet manufacturers is general, the price of PR and nd rare earth is mainly stable, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the import of overseas rare earth ores has dropped sharply, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials have decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output. However, the domestic economic demand is not so good, and the domestic market price of light rare earth has not changed much.

This week, the price trend of China’s legitimate family is stable. As of the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.845 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.84 million yuan / ton. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan is large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth, but the collection and storage information is uncertain. At present, Myanmar’s customs clearance still affects the import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth in China However, the downstream demand is not positive in the near future, and the price of heavy rare earth market is mainly stable. In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth remains high and the downstream demand is not obviously improved. The market price of heavy rare earth remains high and fluctuates.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. Favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. Meanwhile, Sino US relations are tense. Key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is general, and the price of domestic rare earth market is generally stable.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earths has fallen down compared with the previous period. In addition, the downstream purchasing is not active and the wait-and-see attitude is strong. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth will remain stable in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 29th week (7.20-7.24) of 2020, there are 1 kind of rising commodity, 0 kind of falling commodity and 6 kinds of rising and falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were cryolite (1.74%). The price trend of fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, chloroform, R22 and R134a is stable. The specific product analysis is as follows:

According to statistics, as of July 24, the average price of fluorite in China was 2800 yuan / ton, and the domestic fluorite price was mainly stable. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi Province is 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the domestic fluorite price trend has remained volatile. First, the recent domestic fluorite enterprises have started normal operation, the fluorite operating rate is relatively high, and the domestic mines and flotation devices have started to increase, which makes the spot supply of fluorite in the field normal, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the domestic fluorite price is mainly stable. Secondly, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and refrigerants in the lower reaches remain low recently, which has a negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic fluorite price is not driven enough. In the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry is depressed, and fluorite price is expected to remain stable in the later stage.

As of 24 days, the average price of hydrofluoric acid in China was 9035 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market remained stable. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian was 8500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 8500-9000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi was 8600-9200 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was about 8000-8500 yuan / ton The market price trend is stable.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is about 60%. The enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, but the downstream market is not significantly improved. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. Recently, due to the stable price trend of downstream market and the little change of upstream fluorite price, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable. Recently, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid still exists As a result, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable due to the loss, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in some regions remains stable. Generally speaking, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price has no obvious positive support in the near future, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market price will remain stable in the future.

In recent years, the price trend of refrigerant products has been stable. This week, the market of R134a in the refrigerant market is running weakly and stably with little change. The raw material hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, but the support was limited, the terminal demand was weak, the car market demand was poor, the enterprise’s inventory was high, the shipment was under pressure, the market was not good, and the attitude of the industry was negative. However, the price of R134a was at a low level, and the enterprises had the willingness to support the price for cost reasons, so the price was weak and stable, and the decline was postponed. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 24, the average price of refrigerant R134a was around 17000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 15300-17000 yuan / ton, which was stable. Refrigerant R22 market stable operation, overall stable. The market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is stable, the supporting force is still in place, the terminal demand is general, the export is not good, and the domestic after-sales market has not improved significantly. Under the domestic and foreign troubles, R22 manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the start-up is not high. The prices of mainstream manufacturers are stable. Some traders lower their prices and make good profits. In the short term, the market is stagnant. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of July 24, the average price of refrigerant R22 was around 16000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 15500-16000 yuan / ton. The price trend of downstream refrigerant industry was mainly stable.

The price trend of fluorine chemical industry products is stable this week, the demand of terminal downstream is not improved, and the export market is not good. In addition, the domestic refrigerant industry starts to maintain a low level. It is expected that the sales of fluorine chemical industry will remain depressed in the future, and the market will continue to be stagnant.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has been rising steadily recently. As of July 23, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 2230 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 9.31% compared with the beginning of the month and 0.9% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year: 60%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 70%

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year full load

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 70%

Due to the reduction of production load of some enterprises in Shandong Province, and the implementation of export orders by Luxi Chemical Industry, the spot supply in the market has declined. In addition, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not obvious, the enterprise has a good attitude of price support, and the ex factory quotation is slightly increased. The downstream market is mainly in demand, and some traders replenish their goods to support the stable operation of dichloromethane price. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2230-2280 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 2800 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, the methanol market continued to weaken, and some maintenance units were restarted in the early stage, and the supply side was expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises was on the high side, and the downstream market was not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere turned weak, at present, the liquid chlorine market started to go down, and the increase in market supply led to obvious price reduction in the downstream market, with the current average price of 800-900 yuan/ About tons.

On the other hand, the downstream market demand of dichloromethane is poor, among which the market of refrigerant R134a is weak and stable, the terminal demand has not been improved, the export market of refrigerant R134a and downstream products is difficult to recover, the demand of automobile market industry is poor, the manufacturers start low, the goods are general, and the supply exceeds the demand situation, the operators are more bearish; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started flat, and the dichloromethane was not improved Insufficient support.

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that the current supply of dichloromethane market is limited, downstream market purchasing just enough, but in the long run, it is still flat, and it is expected to explore a small rise in the short term.