According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of July 30, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the price on the first day of this month; compared with the price on June 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%. On July 29, the n-propanol commodity index was 100.63, flat with yesterday, down 0.59% from 101.23 (December 12, 2013), and 27.62% higher than the lowest point of 78.85 on November 05, 2015. (Note: period refers to December 1, 2013 to now)

Raw material support demand can maintain stable operation of n-propanol

At the end of the month, the domestic n-propanol market was stable, and some dealers adjusted their prices according to the narrow inventory. At present, the downstream demand is fair, the overall inventory of n-propanol is low, the market mentality is good, and the business offer is mainly stable. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on July 30, the ex factory price of n-propanol purified water in Shandong was around 10500-11000 yuan / ton, the rare high quotation was 11500 yuan / ton, and the barreled packaging was around 11300-11600 yuan / ton; the bulk water in Nanjing was around 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the normal operation of n-propanol production unit was normal, and n-propanol was offered to the public for 11000 yuan / T (bulk water), and the price was the same as that at the beginning of the month. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.

In terms of raw materials, July is coming to an end. On the end of the month, the ethylene market declined after a small rise, and the overall market fell compared with the beginning of the month, but it was still at a high level compared with the market in the second quarter, which gave support to the cost of n-propanol. At present, on the 28th, the US ethylene market FD US Gulf quoted us $339-357 / T. in recent years, the US ethylene market is mainly volatile consolidation, and the market demand has improved. In the later period, the market change is mainly affected by the small rise of upstream crude oil, which may be dominated by the rise. The market of ethylene in Asia is stable, CFR Northeast Asia offers 795-805 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia offers 710-720 US dollars / ton, the demand is fair.

In terms of process, there are mainly three methods of n-propanol production, i.e. ethylene carbonyl synthesis, allyl alcohol hydrogenation and isopropanol recovery.

Ethylene carbonyl synthesis method: this process uses ethylene, syngas and hydrogen as raw materials to produce propionaldehyde by low pressure carbonylation synthesis process, and then produces n-propanol by gas phase hydrogenation process, which is the mainstream production process of n-propanol at present.

Allyl alcohol hydrogenation method: allyl alcohol is hydroformylated to form 4-hydroxybutyraldehyde, and then hydrogenated to 1,4-butanediol and by-product n-propanol. The production capacity of n-propanol by this method is small.

Isopropanol recovery method: when propylene is directly hydrated to prepare isopropanol, the by-product is n-propanol, from which n-propanol is recovered. This method is similar to allyl alcohol hydrogenation method, and is also a by-product n-propanol, but the n-propanol recovered by this method is less and the production capacity is smaller.

Each of the three production technologies has its own advantages and disadvantages. The ethylene carbonyl synthesis method is the most advanced production technology of n-propanol in the world, and it is also the mainstream production technology in the world. In fact, the other two methods are in essence n-propanol from other main products, so the production capacity is small and it is not suitable for large-scale industrialization.

The supply and demand is relatively stable, and then the trend is stable

At present, the supply and demand of domestic n-propanol market is relatively balanced, the production and operation are normal, and the cost of domestic n-propanol is improved. It is expected that the market fluctuation will be limited in the short term. The analysts of the n-propanol industry in the business community believe that the domestic n-propanol price is mainly stable in the near future, and the quotation of the secondary market may be adjusted in a narrow range. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the shipping situation.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by the shortage of market supply, the domestic acetic acid market fluctuated higher in July. As of July 30, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2633 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.86% compared with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At present, there are 2600-2650 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2500-2600 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2600-2700 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2400 yuan / ton in Henan, 2600-2650 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2250 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng: 50.1500, planned to overhaul for 25 days on 8.3

Yangzi BP 50 parking

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2000

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35 700

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1000

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

At the beginning of this month, enterprises in East China and North China gradually reduced the load of inspection and repair. In addition, at the beginning of the month, most enterprises focused on delivery contracts, which led to the shortage of spot supply of acetic acid in East China, and the enterprises raised their prices successively. After the middle of the month, due to the completion of enterprise maintenance and the recovery of production, the supply in the future market was expected to increase, resulting in certain fluctuations in the market, and the price was small The price of acetic acid rose back to the highest price of 2683 yuan / ton in the month (average price in East China). Near the end of the month, the demand of downstream market slowed down and the market transaction was light. Some enterprises lowered the price to reduce the follow-up inventory, with a drop of about 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market and tourism market, methanol market fluctuated downward, maintenance enterprises in Northwest China gradually recovered, enterprises and port inventory increased, spot price of methanol continued to decline, at present, about 1622 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the prices of vinyl acetate, acetate and other downstream industries of acetic acid are firm due to the high level of raw materials, but the overall market start-up is not high, the demand is flat, the price support for acetic acid is insufficient, and the downturn in the terminal market leads to the situation of oversupply in the industry; the PTA market put into operation new equipment in July, the terminal demand is weak, the supply increases, the inventory is high, the fundamentals are under negative pressure, and the price shocks Swing down, the end of the end of the cost support and terminal demand bargain purchase, tail showed a small recovery.

In terms of the international market, the performance of the Asian acetic acid market as a whole is fair due to the strong price in China, and the current quotation is about 300-360 US dollars / ton; the European market is generally stable, and the demand for acetic acid is fair, which is about 540 euro / T; the North American market is slightly driven by the Asian market, with the current price of about 455 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the current domestic acetic acid market is at a high level and weak. In early August, Yangtze BP will restart, the spot supply of the market is stable, and the downstream acetate Market has a certain loss. The overall stock in July is relatively sufficient, the market transaction is flat, and the operators are obviously bearish on the acetic acid market. Hualu Hengsheng plans to start a 25 day overhaul on August 3, which may lead to the market There was some fluctuation in supply. The acetic acid market is expected to be stable and soft in a short period of time. Pay attention to whether the enterprise maintenance can provide good support.

Magnesium market trend

On July 30, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run smoothly, with the overall range of 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 13000-13100 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 30th was 12933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of July (7.1), and 14166.67 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 8.71%. In recent years, the price of magnesium ingot is stable, and the quotation of mainstream production area is basically unchanged.

In 2020, the price of magnesium ingot will decline all the way. Since the middle of April, the price fluctuation tends to be stable, and the quotation range is between 12800-13400 yuan / ton.

The rebound of magnesium ingot price is weak, mainly due to the drag of overseas demand.

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, from January to June 2020, the export volume of magnesium products with six tax codes totaled 208000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.50%, and the total export amount reached 492 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 18.86%;

Among them, the export volume of magnesium ingot was 114400 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%.

The cost of magnesium ingot is stable or normal on the base and demand side

At present, the price of magnesium ingot is relatively low, and the mainstream transaction price in the market has approached 12850 yuan / T. due to the influence of cost factors, the willingness of mainstream manufacturers to stand up for prices has increased. Due to the obstruction at the export end, domestic customers just need to purchase, and middlemen purchase sporadically, fast in and fast out, so it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term; supply pressure still exists in the short term.

After the price of magnesium ingot fell in July, it began to stabilize recently. It is learned that at present, there is not much trading in the market. Domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they basically purchase on demand and have little willingness to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to reduce the price and promote sales, and the willingness to stop production and repair is relatively higher, and the market supply-demand game tends to be stable. It is expected that some factories will shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the magnesium price at the supply side will be favorable to some extent. However, based on the reality of weak demand, it is expected that the later stage will run smoothly or become normal. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the change of downstream purchasing rhythm.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by high market cost, the East China ethyl acetate Market rose steadily in July. As of July 29, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5600 yuan / ton, up 1.13% compared with the beginning of the month and 2.42% higher than the same period of last month.

This month, the domestic ethyl acetate market started stable as a whole, and the spot supply was sufficient, but the downstream market was in the off-season, and the purchase of ethyl acetate was limited, and the market supply exceeded the demand. However, due to the high production cost of enterprises, the price of ethyl acetate passively followed.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market remained high in the month. Affected by the negative impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply in the market was tight, and the enterprises had a good attitude of keeping up prices. At present, it was in a wait-and-see situation after the rise. However, with the expected increase of future supply, the long-term outlook may be downward. The high level of ethanol market is strong, and the price rise of raw material corn supports the rise of ethanol price. At present, most enterprises mainly consume the stock purchased in the early stage, and the price of ethanol slows down. At present, the price of ethanol is about 6150 yuan / ton.

Internationally, the overall performance of international ethyl acetate is relatively stable, among which the port price of European market is about 750 euro / ton; the port price of North American market is about 610-660 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of the business club, the oversupply of domestic ethyl acetate market continues to intensify, and the main reason for the high price is the high production cost. In the future market, we need to pay attention to the price fluctuation of acetic acid and ethanol market, and it is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of liquefied natural gas on July 29 was 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.82% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 0.14% month on month, and decreased by 23.81% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In July, the domestic LNG market rose slightly, but the price was always hovering at a low level with limited fluctuation, and the way up was extremely difficult. At the beginning of the month, the price was running smoothly. Since the middle of the month, due to the high inventory of the liquid plant in the early stage, the manufacturer reduced the price to clear the warehouse, and the shipment was improved. At the same time, considering the cost, the enterprise adjusted the price according to the trend, but the increase was not large, and the price adjustment range was mostly within 50 yuan. After the rise, it faced the situation of callback, and the price was in a sticky state, with a dilemma. Near the end of the month, the market is relatively calm, affected by special events in Xinjiang, shipment pressure, price down. At present, the supply side is still in a relaxed state. In terms of early maintenance enterprises, Huanggang, Hubei Province, etc. shut down. The surrounding areas are supported by this favorable situation, and the prices rise. However, the demand in the off-season consumption is not high, and it is difficult to boost the market by suppressing part of the demand by superimposing the plum rain season in the south. In the short term, the trend of domestic LNG market tends to be stable and mainly fluctuates in a narrow range.

The following are some maintenance enterprises for reference:

Recovery plan for the change of plant capacity (10000 m3 / D)

Hubei Huanggang 500 was shut down on the 24th and the sales on the 26th, scheduled for 30-40 days of maintenance

Inner Mongolia Zhengtai Yida 300, shut down for maintenance on July 24, planned 10-15 days

Heilongjiang Sanju longpeng 18 July 20 to be closed

Shuntianda in Yangcheng, Shanxi Province – shut down on the 23rd and stop selling on the 24th for about 20 days

Shouyang, Shanxi Province: 50 July 28th to be closed

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of July 29, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was about 2460 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was about 2470 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2480 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang was 3200 yuan / ton.

Enterprise capacity (10000 m3 / D) up and down from July 29 to July 1

Inner Mongolia Shitai 55 2430 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 30 yuan

Star energy 100 2460 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 10 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 120 2520 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 300 2500 yuan / ton 2480 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1002480 yuan / ton—

Dazhou Huixin: 100 2750 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 100 2580 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton 80 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2400 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton – 60 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua ￥ 30 3200 / T ￥ 3700 / T-500

The downstream methanol market is in a narrow range. In the later stage, the port inventory will accumulate again, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the methanol price; in the early stage, some maintenance devices have been resumed and restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises is on the high side, and the downstream market is not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere becomes weak, so it is expected that the domestic methanol market may decline in the short term.

Liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Market Trend differentiation, some areas of the price downward range is larger, such as the main production area of Shandong prices fell significantly, Hebei region followed the Shandong market also downward. It is expected that with the resumption of production of some urea plants in the future market, the amount of ammonia in Shandong can be effectively controlled, and the price may stabilize and rebound. Other regions, such as Hebei, are also expected to rise. Affected by the balance of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia in Northeast and Northwest China is likely to maintain stability.

In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

Recently, the dichloromethane market in Shandong has been rising steadily. As of the 29th, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market is about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of dichloromethane market is limited, and the demand of downstream market is fair, but it is still flat in the long term, and it is expected to rise slightly in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is high and firm, which supports the price of methane chloride well; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is flat, and the game between supply and demand is strong.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: the domestic LNG market rose as a whole in July. However, the rising space in the off-season consumption is limited, and the price is always hovering at a low level. In the short term, it is expected that the price will remain low and stable. With the maintenance plan of some liquid plants in the future market, the on-site supply will decrease, which may boost the market and usher in a wavelet upward trend.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market continued to decline in July, and the downstream weaving factories made proper replenishment, and the price rose slightly at the end of the month. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5000-5200 yuan / ton, FDY (150D / 96F) is 5500-5650 yuan / ton, and DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 6300-6900 yuan / ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in July, unit: yuan / ton

Products: July 1, 2020 to July 29, 2020

Month up / down year on year

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5492 5080 – 7.51% – 36.21%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5590 5921 – 5.60% – 29.89%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 7101 6645 – 6.42% – 28.99%

Since the middle and late June, domestic polyester filament prices have been exploring. In July, the cash flow of most polyester filament varieties is in deficit. Taking poy150d / 48F as an example, the cash flow maintained at around 300 yuan / ton in the middle of June. After the end of June, the cash flow continued to narrow. In July, the cash flow was in a loss situation, with a loss of more than 400 yuan / ton by the end of the month. In summer, polyester filament demand is mostly off-season, and enterprise inventory will also reach the peak of the year. This year, affected by public health events, the inventory pressure of polyester filament enterprises continues to increase, and high inventory has become a common problem. At present, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 30-40 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 10-16 days, FDY inventory is around 21-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 29-39 days.

In the raw material market, oil prices are supported by the OPEC + crude oil production reduction agreement. However, the factors restricting the continued rise of crude oil are still the demand concerns. The crude oil price in July has significantly narrowed. As of July 28, the closing price of WTI main contract was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 3.06% compared with the beginning of the month. As of July 28, Asian PX (CFR China) closed at US $558 / T, up 3.14% from the beginning of the month. Recently, overseas units have come to an end and are being restarted gradually. The domestic start-up load is basically stable. At present, PX is still in a deficit state. With the recovery of plants, PX inventory has been significantly accumulated, and the domestic social inventory has reached a high level of 2.5 million tons. The domestic PTA Market weakened in July. As of July 29, the average market price was 3554 yuan / ton, down 1.47% compared with the beginning of the month, and 36.42% lower than that at the beginning of the month. The new unit was put into operation, the terminal demand was weak, the supply was increased, the inventory was high, the fundamentals were under negative pressure, the price fluctuated downward, the cost support and terminal demand were purchased on bargain at the end of the month, and the tail showed a slight recovery.

The double drop of domestic and foreign trade orders has further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of textile raw materials such as polyester filament. Enterprises in downstream weaving and other fields are more and more willing to reduce production, reduce load and take holidays. At present, the startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has been reduced to around 55%, which is at a low level compared with the same period last year. Textile printing and dyeing enterprises have already replenished autumn and winter fabric raw materials in advance at the end of the second quarter. Since July, orders of enterprises have been out of stock, and the inventory level of cost and raw materials is on the high side. Some enterprises have reached the highest level in recent years. The willingness of enterprises to continue to prepare goods is not strong, and polyester filament enterprises are also facing the situation of shortage of orders. Recently, for example, the transaction volume of polyester fabrics in the traditional market of China Light and textile city has declined, the transaction volume of imitation silk fabrics with polyester filament as the main raw material in summer has decreased sharply, and the transaction volume of medium and thick fabrics in autumn is still relatively limited, and the price is stable and slightly down.

At the end of the textile and clothing market, public health events at home and abroad are still fermenting, and residents’ demand for clothing, home textiles and other non necessities continues to decline. It is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, with a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, driven by the significant increase in the export of related anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, China’s textile and clothing exports achieved the first year-on-year positive growth in this year. According to China’s customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s textile and clothing cumulative export volume is 125.188 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, of which the cumulative export of textiles is 74.103.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 27.81%. Textile and garment orders at home and abroad are decreasing day by day, and the export of China’s clothing products continues to decline. According to the customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s accumulated clothing exports amounted to US $51.084 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%, still continuing the downward trend, accounting for 40.8% of the total textile and clothing exports in the same period.

In the early days of xiaweiting, the textile industry was faced with low stock and low stock, which led to the increasing demand of textile enterprises. At present, some polyester filament enterprises have certain expectations of production reduction, but they have not announced the specific implementation time and the scale of production reduction and load reduction, and most enterprises are still waiting and waiting. At present, the rumors of polyester filament enterprises to reduce the load are gradually increasing in the industry, so it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of enterprises’ production reduction and load reduction. In addition, raw material PTA start-up and inventory are maintained at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve under the background of off-season terminal, and the cost side support is limited. However, in the middle and late August, PTA plant maintenance increases and the terminal textile market ushers in the recovery of orders, and the inventory pressure may be reduced, which will boost the market to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester filament market is likely to fluctuate downward in August, but the possibility of recovery in the middle and late ten days is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the domestic isopropanol market went down all the way in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11600 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 9650 yuan / ton. The price dropped by 16.81% within the month

2、 Market analysis

Domestic isopropanol market went down in July. It is mainly due to the reduction of foreign trade orders and the decline of order receiving price. In the international market, isopropanol continued to decline in the United States and European markets. The demand for isopropanol in the overseas disinfectant market was lower than before, and the overseas orders were reduced to varying degrees, and the price also fell accordingly. Domestic isopropanol market center of gravity down, more inquiries, mainly wait-and-see, take goods carefully. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 9100-9500 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is 9500-9600 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is around 9800 yuan / ton.

Chart: comparison of acetone and isopropanol price trend in July

In terms of raw material acetone, the national acetone market continues to fall deeply. So far, the offer of acetone market in East China is 6800 yuan / ton, and there is still room for discussion on the actual order. At present, the on-site negotiation is cold and the purchasing mood of the terminal is not high. There is no minimum but a lower situation. At present, acetone lacks support for isopropanol, and the price of isopropanol and acetone is going down simultaneously.

In terms of raw material propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Up to now, the market turnover is between 6620-7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6650 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers are now shipping flat, but there is no inventory pressure. Propylene cost support is also weak, isopropanol market prices began to tilt downward.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene are falling one after another, and the cost support of isopropanol is limited. International market, isopropanol market continued to decline. In terms of demand, the positive effects of foreign trade slowed down, the price of export orders declined, and the volume of orders received decreased significantly. There are many domestic enquiries, mainly wait-and-see, take the goods very carefully. Generally speaking, the price of isopropanol in the short term is likely to continue to decline, and the follow-up attention to the news changes.

Price trend:

According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, in late July, the domestic ABS market declined in a narrow range, and some spot prices in the market decreased. As of July 28, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12900.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.64% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In terms of styrene upstream of ABS, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the average offer of sample enterprises on Friday, July 28 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.54% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. According to reports, the current styrene inventory is still at a high level, and the short-term oversupply situation has not changed. In addition, the domestic styrene production line restarted more this month, and the risk of accumulation of stocks on the site affected the mentality of merchants. Downstream factories are still not enthusiastic about taking delivery of goods, and high price materials are under great pressure. It is expected that styrene will be mainly processed by shock. The market demand should pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the recent domestic market continues to be weak, the market atmosphere is low. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the operating rate of production enterprises was further improved, and the supply pressure in the market was further increased. At present, the acrylonitrile production plant reduces the load in order to divert the contradiction between supply and demand. Downstream just need to buy mainly, stock operation carefully. There is resistance in the shipment of merchants, and the actual transaction is less. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak.

According to the monitoring price of business agency, as of July 28, the average price of domestic butadiene market was about 4234.44 yuan / ton, which was 22.90% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recently, there is a certain demand for butadiene downstream, and the northern market is rising. Merchants in East China are generally reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer rises. Short term supply side and external disk news support, high price goods flooded the market, but the future stock supply is expected to increase, downstream stock preparation is more cautious, and the transaction is general. At present, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, and the market offer may remain relatively strong due to the supplier LED market. It is expected that butadiene will rise in price in the near future

In recent years, ABS domestic market has been stable and falling. Although there is a rigid demand for support in the downstream in the first half of the month, the domestic ABS petrochemical plant is operating at almost full capacity. Although the existing inventory is at a low level, the on-site spot circulation began to increase. In addition, near the end of the month, businesses actively let profits and orders to complete the task, and the downstream factory stock operation turned to be cautious, and the demand was flat, resulting in a narrow range of decline in many brands.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in late July, the ABS market has fallen steadily, and the prices of various brands have been reduced in a narrow range. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, the cost side support is general. At present, ABS spot supply began to increase, downstream of high price ABS goods attitude is cautious, take goods just need to go single. At present, businesses are actively reducing the price to complete the task, and there is room for profit. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to narrow down in the near future.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the cobalt price rose in July, and the cobalt market rose sharply since last week, and the cobalt price rose sharply for two consecutive trading days this week. As of July 28, the average price of cobalt was 269666.66 yuan / ton, up 9.25% from 246833.33 yuan / ton on July 20, and 7.29% higher than the average price of 251333.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week (July 26). The price of cobalt is soaring, and the cobalt market is booming again.

Non ferrous metal plate index

According to the statistics of business agency index, the nonferrous metal plate has been rising slowly since April. Since July, the nonferrous metal plate has risen in a straight line, and the market performance of the nonferrous metal plate is strong. Spot market nonferrous plate performance “positive heat”, good for cobalt market.

Capital flow of nonferrous metals

Stock market non ferrous metal plate up and down

Plate name: Rise and fall range, turnover rate, number of winners and losers

Non ferrous metals: 1.96% 3.20% 56.16

According to the statistics of capital flow in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, it can be seen that in recent 10 days, the capital flow of non-ferrous metal plate was active, the market hot money flow stimulated the cobalt market greatly, and the market bullish mentality was prominent. The non-ferrous plate of the stock market increased significantly, and the turnover was frequent, and the heat of the non-ferrous plate in the stock market was booming.

European new energy vehicle policy stimulates sales

During the epidemic period, European countries introduced economic stimulus policies for electric vehicles. In May, France announced an 8 billion automobile industry support plan to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles; in June, Germany launched an economic stimulus plan of 130 billion yuan to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles again; Greece and Spain issued subsidy plans for new energy vehicles; and in July, the Netherlands issued a subsidy plan for electric vehicles, which will last until 2025. Affected by policy stimulus, European sales doubled year on year in June, and monthly sales exceeded the pre epidemic level. In June, 81000 new energy vehicles were registered in 10 European countries, with a year-on-year increase of 96%. Among them, the sales of electric vehicles in Germany in June was 19000, with a year-on-year increase of 115% and a month on month increase of 51%; in France, 21000 vehicles were sold in June, with a year-on-year increase of 259% and a month on month rise of 193%; in June, the sales volume of 14000 vehicles in Britain increased by 261% year-on-year and 331% month on month. The sales of new energy vehicles increased greatly, which stimulated the cobalt market. Cobalt market rising momentum increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that after the epidemic, with the recovery of the domestic economic environment, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones in China have gradually recovered; while in the international market, in order to stimulate the economy, many governments have introduced economic stimulus policies. European markets are stimulated by policies, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased greatly, which is good for the future market of cobalt market. Recently, the non-ferrous metal trading in the stock market has been active, and the non-ferrous plate in the spot market has increased significantly. Hot money from the market has entered the non-ferrous metal market. The bullish mentality of the non-ferrous plate is highlighted. As a small metal product, cobalt is easy to be concerned by hot money, which sets off a new wave of investment boom. Under the stimulation of good news, the cobalt price may hit a short-term peak, but the overall supply and demand of the cobalt market is not unbalanced. The rising support of the cobalt Market at the supply and demand side is insufficient, and the cobalt price is difficult to impact the 300000 peak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, since July, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide has become weak, the rigid demand of caprolactam enterprises has declined, and the price of hydrogen peroxide has not been driven to rise. As of July 27, the average market price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has fallen below the 1000 yuan mark, which has dropped by 8.97% compared with 1040 yuan / ton in early July.

Let’s specifically analyze the reasons for the sharp drop of hydrogen peroxide in July 2020

At the beginning of July, the hydrogen peroxide market was still supported by the favorable June. Some manufacturers have resumed parking and maintenance, but the market supply has not been fully recovered. The manufacturers still hold up their prices, and the hydrogen peroxide prices are tentatively rising. The average price of mainstream market was 1050 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 0.96%. Then the price of hydrogen peroxide gradually stabilized, and the price continued to operate stably.

In the middle and late July, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide enterprises increased and the tight market supply situation was eased. The market of terminal caprolactam was dragged down by the market of raw materials, and its own demand was low. The price of terminal caprolactam dropped by more than 7% all the way. Similarly, in the paper industry, after the end of centralized stock, the paper market has been stable. Hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam market weakened, hydrogen peroxide price also opened a downward channel, the price continued to fall, the weekly decline was about 50 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market fell below 950 yuan / ton, down nearly 9%.

The company’s name fell on July 27 compared with the beginning of July

Shijiazhuang Baipo Zhengyuan fertilizer Co., Ltd. 900 yuan / ton 180 yuan / ton

Luxi Chemical Group 920 yuan / ton 280 yuan / ton

Anhui Quansheng Chemical Co., Ltd. 1020 yuan / ton 30 yuan / ton

Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co., Ltd. 950 yuan / ton 100 yuan / ton

Hangzhou Mingxin hydrogen peroxide Co., Ltd. 1100 yuan / ton unchanged

Hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: terminal caprolactam market downturn, demand pressure, the paper market has gone up, in the short term, hydrogen peroxide market has little room to rise, or will continue to fall.