According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of fluorite in China has risen, ending the two-month decline since May 25. The price of fluorite has risen from 2577.78 yuan / ton on May 25 to 2666.67 yuan / ton on June 2, an increase of 3.45%.

The price of fluorite bottomed out and rebounded, among which the most favorable factor was the increase of domestic inquiries. Some manufacturers reported the recent increase of orders for fluorite. Stimulated by the increase of enquiries, domestic fluorite manufacturers were in a strong mood of rising. The price of fluorite was ready to be issued, and the market price gradually increased. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation devices in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher. In the near future, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid has recovered, and the downstream purchase of terminal is mainly on demand. As of the 2nd day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. In the near future, domestic fluorite businesses are bullish Xu strong, fluorite market has a rising trend.

Price statistics of products in fluorine chemical industry:

Product rise and fall on May 25, June 2 unit: yuan / ton

Fluorite 2577.78 2666.67 3.45% yuan / ton

Hydrofluoric acid 8630 8630 yuan / ton

R22 14500 14833.33 2.30% yuan / ton

R134a 20333.33 18833.33-7.38% yuan / ton

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remained low. As of the 2nd day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8630 yuan / ton. The market price of hydrofluoric acid started to rise slightly since the 28th day. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream was supported by the market price of fluorite. The market price of hydrofluoric acid lagged behind the market of fluorite, and fluorite price led the rise of fluorine chemical products.

Recently, the sales of the automobile industry have improved compared with the previous ones, but the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is still depressed. There is no obvious improvement in the demand for refrigerant. With the continuous recovery of foreign economy, the export of refrigerant terminal may improve. However, the domestic air-conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. On the whole, foreign demand may rise. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is still fluctuating, but the situation of market price or not appears. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 15500-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, the demand for R134a is cold, the procurement of downstream industry is not active in the near future, the price drops slightly, the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the growth of fluorite market is limited to some extent.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market strengthened in May, and the spot market price generally rose. As of May 31, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.62% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In all upstream aspects of ABS, the mainstream price of styrene in China fluctuated upward in May. According to the data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of sample enterprises was about 5416.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. This month, the chemical industry as a whole strengthened due to the positive impact of the rise in crude oil. However, the supply of domestic styrene market is still sufficient, with less spot shipments, pulling the styrene market downward. At the end of the month, the inventory of styrene port in East China rose and the spot supply was sufficient, but the spot market trading was not good. The downstream is still dominated by rigid demand, the spot selling pressure is still on, and the overall supply and demand performance is short. Business data analysts expect styrene prices to remain stable in the short term, with narrow range consolidation, following the trend of crude oil;

At the end of last month, the price of acrylonitrile stabilized, and this month, the market trend of acrylonitrile rebounded. In the middle of the year, some enterprises have plans to reduce production to relieve supply pressure. At present, the acrylonitrile inventory reduction is smooth, the supply of goods is reduced, the mentality of merchants at the end of the month is positive, and the storage and speculation atmosphere is rising. However, at present, the demand is not strong, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is general, the stock just needs to be operated, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be stronger;

The domestic butadiene market recovered after strengthening this month. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the price of butadiene in this month was 8.19% higher than that in the same period last month, and 51.10% lower than that in the same period last year. Sinopec’s price increase before the May 1st Festival boosted the firm offer of middlemen. After the festival, the high-speed automobile transportation restart charges also supported the market offer price to some extent. At the same time, driven by China’s market atmosphere, the price of some of the near foreign ships strengthened, bringing a boost to the domestic market. However, the downstream inquiry in East China market is limited. After the festival, the high price of the market was not smooth, and the butadiene market was weak under the drag of weak trading. In the downstream demand drag, the market up weak. The atmosphere in East China is weak, and the transaction of some goods with slightly low price drags down the center of offer, and there is no lack of spot circulation to the northern market in the week, resulting in the transaction of slightly high price goods in Northeast China is not smooth, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. The butadiene analysts of the business association predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term, with the low-end finishing as the main factor and the market price range referring to 3500-3800 yuan / ton;

This month, the domestic ABS market is strong, among which the rising momentum in the middle of the month is strong. According to the data of business agency, May 18 rose 3.59% in a single day, and domestic businesses reported two gains in one day. After that, the market continued to pull up. On the 19th, the average price of each brand rose by 300-700 yuan, to about 11950 yuan / ton on the 20th, or 7.71% in three days. *** Stimulate the price of helmets to go up all the way, and electric helmets have become hot products online and offline. As the main raw material of helmet, the demand of ABS will break out in a short time, which will benefit the domestic ABS market. In May, the operation rate of domestic ABS petrochemical plant was almost full load operation, and the industry operation rate was nearly 98%. The existing inventory has basically fallen to the average low level, and the atmosphere of speculation has been maintained in the field. The high-level shipping of merchants is the main thing, and the downstream factories are cautious in their stock up mentality.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: ABS market is stronger in May, and most brand prices have increased significantly. Cost side of the upstream three material trend in the near future is OK, the cost of general support. At present, the spot supply of ABS is reduced, and the demand for downstream production volume is increased, but there is resistance to high price goods. Business confidence is strong, speculation is still in the atmosphere. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to adjust in the near future.

Since October 2019, when the chemical market started the unilateral downward trend, it was not until April 2020 that the chemical market ushered in the turning point. However, in April, there was a lot of bad news. The overall increase of the market was not optimistic. After May 1st, the chemical market gradually entered a good situation, and the market showed a unilateral upward trend. According to the commodity data provider – Business Agency (100 ppi.com ）The monitoring shows that the chemical industry index on January 1, 2020 is 736 points, the chemical industry index on April 8, 2020 is 598 points, with an overall decline of 18.75%, the chemical industry index on April 30 is 621 points, the chemical industry index on May 31 is 657 points, and the chemical industry market overall rose 36 points, with an increase of 5.8%. As can be seen from the trend chart of chemical industry index in the figure below, the chemical industry market gradually recovered in May, showing a unilateral and steady upward trend, and the industry gradually recovered.

In May, the chemical industry market as a whole showed a trend of up and down. First, affected by the sharp rise of crude oil, the whole petrochemical industry is in good condition, among which phenol ketone industry chain is outstanding, and the whole industry chain is in an upward trend, with an average increase of 12%. Second, inorganic chemical products did not perform well, chlor alkali plate, fertilizer plate and fluorine chemical industry showed a downward trend. According to the business association (100 ppi.com *** There are 37 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 17.8% of the total commodities monitored in the sector; the top 6 products with a decline are R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%), propane (- 11.97%), hydrofluoric acid (- 10.66%), light soda (- 10.26%) and R22 (- 10.10%). Chemical products rose and fell 3.66% in May.

The chemical industry market is gradually warming up, and the phenol ketone industry chain is showing an eye-catching performance

In May, the chemical industry market as a whole showed an upward trend, and the industry gradually recovered. The overall performance of phenol ketone industry chain was eye-catching, which played an important role in the overall upward trend of the chemical industry. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 8 rising and 1 falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of phenolic ketone industry, and 0 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities up were bisphenol A (21.78%), acetone (21.05%), pure benzene (19.21%); the main commodities down were isopropanol (- 0.86%). In the 90 chemical products monitored by the chemical industry, the average growth rate is 3.66%, of which 9 products in the phenol ketone industry chain are 12%, and the phenol ketone industry chain is the most prominent in the chemical industry.

Recently, the phenol ketone industry chain has attracted attention. First, affected by the epidemic, isopropanol has risen to a historical high in April. As an important disinfectant product, isopropanol is now favored by overseas markets, and export orders have skyrocketed. In May, isopropanol was running at a high level, up 145.45% on the same period. Second, acetone, as the raw material of isopropanol, rose significantly in May due to the soaring crude oil and tight market supply. For two consecutive months, it rose 150% in some regions, 180% higher than the previous year, a six-year high. Third, affected by the increasing cost of raw materials, the downward products of the whole industrial chain have shown a substantial increase trend, and some industries are unable to digest the pressure brought by the upward cost, which also presents a situation of overall shutdown. In a word, the star products of phenol ketone industry chain are emerging in an endless stream recently, which has attracted the attention of chemical industry market.

Crude oil soared 70% in May, boosting the chemical industry as a whole.

Since the historic OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect in May, the situation of oversupply in the crude oil market has been greatly improved, and the market’s expectation that the oil price has been proved to be at the bottom has gradually increased. The recovery of international crude oil has led to the recovery of petrochemical sector, *** Although the terminal demand of each industrial chain is still weak, the rising crude oil will restore the market confidence.

***

Inorganic chemical products such as fluorine chemical industry, chemical fertilizer industry and chlor alkali industry are in recession, with the overall downward trend.

In May, the chemical market saw a decline in 37 commodities, with R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%), propane (- 11.97%), hydrofluoric acid (- 10.66%), light soda ash (- 10.26%) and R22 (- 10.10%) as the top six products. They are all inorganic chemical products.

Three of the six chemical products (R134a, hydrofluoric acid and R22) with a large decline were fluorinated chemical products, while fluorite, another important raw material of fluorinated chemical industry, fell by 4.02% in May. On the whole, the fluorine chemical industry is affected by the epidemic situation. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry is cold, the enterprise’s operating rate is low, the terminal export is not smooth, and the raw materials from the bottom to the top continue to decline. ***

In May, the fertilizer market was in the off-season. Affected by the downturn of domestic demand and the sharp decline of exports, the performance of the fertilizer sector was not optimistic. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 1 rising commodity, 8 falling commodities and 0 rising and falling commodity in the price list of chemical fertilizer. The main commodities that rose were ammonium nitrate (1.30%); the main commodities that fell were potassium chloride (- 15.14%), monoammonium phosphate (- 5.39%), liquid ammonia (- 3.21%), and the average rise and fall in May was – 3.25%. Take potassium chloride, which has the largest decline, as an example. At present, the market is facing three major pressures, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, the weak demand and the decline of international prices. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent. Analysts of potassium chloride in business cooperatives believe that the short-term market or low consolidation of potassium chloride is the main factor.

The uncertain factors of the current global epidemic situation and import and export trade situation are great. Both at home and abroad are actively promoting the resumption of enterprises. However, under the current background, it will take time for the overseas market to recover. Although China continues to increase various stimulus policies to promote market recovery, the recovery of the global economy is not smooth. In June, the chemical market continued to rise, but at present, the terminal product inventory is high, and the market is still under pressure. The business agency expects the chemical industry market to recover gradually in June as a whole, but the road may be more tortuous, rising and falling hard.

In May, the price trend of adipic acid continued the weak trend of last month. The price was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of business agency, the price of adipic acid turned red in May, but the monthly decline was only 0.61% (as shown in the figure above). The price of dealers mainly fluctuated in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of May 29, the mainstream price of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream cost, crude oil rebounded and benefited the downstream petrochemical industry. Pure benzene upstream of adipic acid was also affected and the price rebounded. From the beginning of May to now, as of May 29, and according to the monitoring of business society, pure benzene has increased by nearly 15% (as shown in the figure below), but it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the cost transmission has a certain lag effect, on the other hand, in the early February and March, pure benzene fell sharply, with a drop of more than 50%, but the decline of adipic acid has not kept up with the decline of pure benzene, so adipic acid is now in the decline of pure benzene There is still some profit space without obvious increase, so adipic acid is also more resistant to falling than the upstream pure benzene. From another perspective, the root cause of the price downturn of adipic acid is more from the supply and demand side.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of enterprises in the whole month remains at a high level, above 80%. The supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers have been accumulating inventory, and the inventory pressure remains high. And the delivery strength is not good. At present, although most dealers have returned to normal delivery, the downstream demand has not yet reached the level before the epidemic, and the dealers are still relatively cautious in taking delivery. Some dealers purchase according to orders and operate with light inventory. On the whole, the current market has shown a trend of both high enterprise inventory and market inventory, and later market de stocking may continue.

From the perspective of terminal demand, downstream demand is weak, and it is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and the overall consumption level of plastic products has not been significantly improved, which is difficult to boost the upstream raw material market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other insulation materials is also lower than the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 did not get out of the dilemma. As soon as the price fell, it fell again and again. Since February, the price has continued to decline. As of May 29, the decline was more than 18%, and the decline in a single may was more than 5% (as shown in the figure below). The poor terminal demand is the fundamental reason why adipic acid price is difficult to get out of the downturn. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, the external demand has continued to decline, and the export trade orders of overseas terminal footwear, leather and other manufacturing industries have declined. In May, the terminal demand is likely to further shrink, because after the delivery of the previous export orders, the new orders have declined significantly, which may further force the enterprises to reduce the burden Commence work to relieve supply pressure.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that the upstream chemical products have recovered due to the impact of crude oil rebound, but the intermediate products such as adipic acid do not enjoy the dividend at the cost end, but increase the burden of the enterprise due to the increase of upstream cost. This further reflects the dilemma of current demand. The downstream demand is weak. Affected by the reduction of orders caused by the overseas epidemic, it can be said that the domestic and foreign trade difficulties. In a comprehensive consideration, adipic acid will still shake and adjust at the bottom in the near future, and it will take time to get out of the haze.

Magnesium market trend

On May 29, 2020, the ex factory cash tax price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas was basically stable. At present, the mainstream quotation range is 13100-13400 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 13100-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13150-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13300-13400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13150-13250 yuan / ton.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price in the domestic market on the 29th was 13250 yuan / ton, down 6.47% from 14166.67 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of may (3.1).

In 2020, the overall market of magnesium ingots is weak and affected by the epidemic situation. Since the quotation was resumed in the middle of February, the price of magnesium ingots once had no market due to the limited traffic and transportation. Under the level of traffic and investment, the market quotation once jumped. Subsequently, the trading gradually recovered, and the price of magnesium ingots fell all the way.

Stable operation period before the festival

From January to mid February: near the Spring Festival, the market trading tends to be weak and the market is stable. In the early stage of the downstream, the goods are fully prepared, the festival atmosphere is getting better, and the downstream operation rate is moving down. Before the festival, the price of magnesium ingot was stable, and the price range was 14000-14200 yuan / ton.

Price jump after the festival

In the middle of February, affected by public events, the mainstream magnesium plants are still fully back to work, and the sales are mainly home-based and office based. The actual traffic investment is affected by the traffic factors and the weak demand for the downstream has not yet been back to work, so the market is basically priceless. The mainstream manufacturers raise the external quotation and ask for the way.

Falling period

From the middle of February to the middle of April, the price of magnesium ingot moved down all the way. In the early stage, due to traffic control, the inventory and shipment were not smooth, and in the later stage, due to the downstream resumption of production and work, it was not as expected.

In the early stage, with the gradual development of real trading, the price of magnesium ingot gradually recovers the quotation after two-way market selection; in the later stage, it is reported that, on the one hand, based on the short-term imbalance between supply and demand, some magnesium enterprises in the main production area have strong willingness to ship, large demand for payment back, and sometimes low price to ship; on the other hand, the recent general decline of bulk commodities, the lower willingness to receive goods, and the willingness of traders to store goods have fallen to the freezing point , mainly for rigid demand, small quantity and many batches, such as the market is more cautious. The overall purchase volume of the market is not large, and the delivery and investment are relatively light.

Bottom shock period

From the middle of April to may, the price of magnesium dropped to the lowest level in three years, and the purchase in the market gradually picked up. Affected by cost factors, manufacturers’ willingness to stand up for the price rose. The willingness of some manufacturers to stop production and overhaul has increased, the long space game has intensified, and the market is generally stable.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingot is low, and the weather is gradually turning hot. It is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in June, and the supply side will have some advantages in magnesium price. However, based on the current weak demand, it is expected that the near future will be stable, and the later stage will focus on the changes in the downstream market purchase pace.

1、 Price trend:

On May 29, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 38.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.13% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.81% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Price of product on 25th and price on 29th unit: yuan / ton

East China 3500-3600 3500-36000 yuan / ton

Shandong 3300-3400 3400-3500 100 yuan / ton

This week’s crude oil market rose in shock, WTI fell 4.5% on 27th, mainly due to unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and tension between China and the United States. It rose 2.5% on the 28th and around 1.4% on the week. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton on the 27th, and now the price is 3500 yuan / ton. At present, the pure benzene inventory in the port area has increased to about 210000 tons, and the market supply is sufficient. As of Friday, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 407 US dollars / ton, up 2.33 US dollars / ton from the 25th. In terms of supply, part of the hydrobenzene units in Shandong and Shanxi were restarted or increased production this week, and the overall operating rate of hydrobenzene was increased, and the market supply was increased. In the near future, the downstream industrial chain has been started in a good condition. The start-up of styrene, cyclohexanone and other devices is relatively stable. The phenol start-up rate is relatively low. At present, the downstream demand is relatively stable. Driven by the pure benzene and crude oil market, the market of hydrobenzene in Shandong this week has slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton. As of the end of this week, the mainstream price is around 3450 yuan / ton. Crude benzene announced the next round of bidding price on August 28, with a slight increase of 10 yuan / ton in Shandong Province, and the production pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remained.

3、 Trend Forecast:

The contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of oversupply is still the primary problem that puzzles the oil market. With the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. It is expected that the price of crude oil will fluctuate in the future. In the near future, the port inventory of pure benzene market will be high, the market will rise slightly, the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises will increase in the near future, and the market supply will be increased Although the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is slightly increased, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remains, and the pressure on supply and demand is relatively large. It is expected that the price of hydrogenated benzene will be stable and weak in the future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in May, the contract price of o-benzene Sinopec fell first and then rose, and the overall o-benzene price remained stable. As of May 31, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 4200.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of o-xylene at the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 32.26%.

2、 Market analysis:

Cost factor

From the price trend chart of mixed xylene and o-benzene, it can be seen that in May, the price of o-benzene remained stable, the price of raw material mixed xylene rose sharply, the cost of o-benzene rose, and the price of o-benzene rose under great pressure.

Trend of industrial chain

It can be seen from the trend chart of the downstream industrial chain of o-benzene that the price of phthalic anhydride rose in May, and the market in the downstream of o-benzene recovered; the demand for o-benzene rose, and the driving force for the rise increased; the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in May, which is good for the market of o-benzene and good for the market of o-benzene as a whole.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, in May, the price of o-benzol raw materials rose in shock, the cost of o-benzol rose, and the pressure of o-benzol rise was great. Although the rise of o-benzol in late May eased the pressure, compared with the same period of previous years, the price of o-benzol is still low; for downstream demand, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride and plasticizer rose sharply in May, and the demand rose steadily, o-benzol The upward momentum has increased. Generally speaking, the market of ortho benzene is good, and the rising power of ortho benzene in the future market is relatively large. It is expected that the market of ortho benzene will rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the price of zinc rose first and then fell in May. The overall price of zinc rose in a slight fluctuation, and the market of zinc was sluggish. As of May 31, the spot price of zinc was 16690.00 yuan / ton, up 0.26% slightly from 16646.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Domestic zinc production

Date: monthly output (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

April 2020 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

December 2019 60.7 623.6 19.5 9.2

November 2019 59.4 569.2 13.1 9

October 2019 54.8 512.3 8.3 9.4

September 2019 54.8 458.3 18.9 9.5

August 2019 52.8 403.4 18.9 8.2

July 2019 51.2 343.8 17.4 6.1

June 2019 51.3 281.5 10.3 2.3

May 2019 48 226.9 7.4 – 0.6

April 2019 46.5 176.5-0.4-4.4

March 2019 45.3 130.6 0.4 – 5.1

February 2019 – 85.1 – 8.2

From the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it can be seen that in 2020, the domestic zinc output increased steadily. Although affected by the epidemic situation, the growth rate of zinc output fell in March, but the zinc output rose rapidly in April. The overall output of the domestic zinc market was sufficient, which made up for the lack of imported zinc concentrate in the domestic zinc market, and the domestic zinc market was oversupplied.

The policy is not as good as expected

At 9 a.m. on May 22, Premier Li Keqiang, on behalf of the State Council, made a report on the work of the government to the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress. The report on the work of the government in 2020 does not set a specific target for the annual economic growth. Moreover, the adjusted targets in the government report are also different from expectations. New investment in traditional infrastructure projects is limited, zinc demand is not up to expected, and zinc power is not enough.

Purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry fell slightly

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.6% in May, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, according to the National Bureau of statistics. Although production continued to recover in May, and new orders increased, the global economic situation is still grim and complex, and foreign market demand continues to shrink. In May, the new export order index and import index of manufacturing industry were 35.3% and 45.3% respectively, both at historically low levels. From the perspective of macro-economy, the economy has recovered and the demand has risen with it, but the growth rate is worrying, which is not up to the market expectation.

Analysis, review and Prospect

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, the national economy continued to pick up in May, the demand for basic metals rose slowly, and the demand for zinc ingots followed the rise. However, the growth rate in May was lower than that in April, and the demand growth was not as expected, and the weak import and export was a major blow to the demand of zinc market. The two sessions did not release the obvious good news, which made the market lack of confidence in the future zinc market and the zinc price lost significant support. The continuous increase of zinc ingot production makes the stock of zinc market keep rising and the downward pressure of zinc market increase. Generally speaking, the demand is poor, the supply is surplus, and the zinc price in the future is weak. Zinc is expected to tumble in June.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt rose in May, and the market continued to pick up. As of May 31, the price of cobalt was 255666.67 yuan / ton, up 6.31% from the average price of 240500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Cobalt market rose sharply in May.

Mobile phone sales increase

According to the data of China Academy of communications, in April 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 41.728 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and the mobile phone sales volume in April was the highest in 19 years. In April, the sales volume of mobile phones rose sharply year-on-year, and the demand for mobile phones picked up, supporting the demand for cobalt market.

Production and sales of new energy vehicles are picking up

According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in April 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 80000 and 72000 respectively, with a growth rate of 31.6% and 9.7% on a month on month basis, down 22.1% and 26.5% on a year-on-year basis. Although affected by the decline of subsidies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell significantly in April compared with the same period last year, but on a month on month basis, the domestic market environment for new energy vehicles has significantly recovered, the demand for cobalt market has increased, and the price of cobalt has increased.

Policy related

According to Bloomberg, the European Commission will promote the transformation of the automotive industry to electric vehicles, and the European Commission is considering providing incentives to automakers to encourage them to produce and sell clean cars. The policy promotes to stimulate the development of electric vehicle market and increase the demand of cobalt Market in the future.

At 9 a.m. on May 22, the third session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened, and Premier Li Keqiang made a report on the work of the government. It is proposed in the report that it will focus on supporting the development of a new generation of information networks, expanding 5g applications, building charging piles, promoting new energy vehicles, stimulating new consumer demand, and promoting industrial upgrading. To promote the development of new energy vehicles is the basic policy of the country, but the decline of state subsidies forces the upgrading of new energy vehicle industry. During the upgrading of new energy vehicle industry chain, the demand of cobalt market will slow down, and the policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles have limited benefits for cobalt market.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, the sales volume of mobile phones and new energy vehicles increased sharply in April, and the demand for cobalt recovered. In May, the price of cobalt continued to rise. The EU’s policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles and the government’s report on the development of new energy vehicles in the National People’s Congress are good for the future cobalt market. Overall, the positive news of cobalt Market in May continued to stimulate the rise of cobalt price shocks.

But behind the good news in May, there is always a taste of false prosperity, and there is still a risk of decline in the future cobalt market. The sales volume of new energy vehicles and mobile phones increased significantly in April, partly because of the retaliatory consumption caused by the backlog of early consumption, which is not sustainable. It is expected that the consumption will return to normal at the end of May, or even some weakness will occur. However, it is difficult to achieve real growth in the short term due to favorable policies and weak global demand. According to Bloomberg new energy finance and economics forecast, global electric vehicle sales will decline by 18% to 1.7 million in 2020 compared with the same period last year, while global mobile phone sales are expected to decline by at least 10%. The sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones are expected to decline, the demand of cobalt market is expected to fall sharply, and the short-term demand recovery is hard to hide the lack of market demand.

In general, may cobalt market was stimulated by good news, and the price of cobalt rose in shock. However, the rising momentum of future cobalt market is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of cobalt will be stable in June.