In May 2020, the domestic BDO market continued to decline and the market focus continued to move down. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 9240 yuan / ton, and the BDO price at the end of the month was 8366 yuan / ton, down 9.36% in the month. The price is 6.00% lower than the same period last year.

This month, the focus of domestic BDO market continued to decline. The beginning of the month coincides with the May Day holiday. The downstream mainly digests the early inventory and stores a small amount of stock on the site. Kaixiang restarts a set of devices, which increases the supply of spot goods. The factory’s inventory is still overstocked in the middle and upper reaches, and it is heard that the strength of spot goods and contract rebate is greatly increased compared with that before. In the middle and lower reaches, Xiaoxing chemical, the main plant of PTMEG, stopped for maintenance, while PBT load dropped to 30-40%, the overall consumption of BDO in the lower reaches was limited, and the buyer pressed the price significantly. On June 16, an industry meeting was held. In order to reduce the inventory pressure, many factories, such as Merck, Cathay Pacific, Panjin, etc., planned to stop for maintenance in June to stimulate the downstream to buy gas. However, the downstream still chose to follow up as needed without obvious intention to make up positions. The mode of combining contract with spot was selected for procurement, and the focus of negotiation was still low. At the end of the month, as the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, BDO’s production profit changes from profit to loss, and the supplier’s interest intention is weakened. On May 26-27, MEC, Tunhe, Henan energy, Shaanxi chemical industry and Tianye announced the settlement in May and listing in June, of which the listing decreased by 400 yuan / ton compared with that in May.

In terms of devices, Henan hecian planned to restart in June; Dongyuan, Ronghe and Kaixiang planned to stop, and the restart time was not determined; Henan Kaixiang two sets of devices were in full load operation; Xinjiang Xinye 60000t / a device was in shutdown for maintenance, and it was planned to restart by the end of June; Ningxia Sinopec Great Wall load was 50%; Shaanxi Shaanxi Shaanxi chemical load was 70%, and it was planned to overhaul in early July; Shaanxi black cat load was 50%, and it was planned to shutdown for maintenance in June; Tianye phase I, May 18 For vehicle maintenance, it is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices is unknown; Panjin Dalian stock maintenance plan in June; Guotai load 50%, heard the stock maintenance plan in June; MEC load 50%, and the whole line will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30.

Raw materials: methanol: the overall methanol price in the northwest of this month shows a downward trend, and the transaction atmosphere is first to be improved and then to be suppressed. In the first week after the festival, with the support of macro news such as the surge of international crude oil, the mentality of upstream factories was strong, and the main factories such as Rongxin and Xinao stopped selling one after another. Shenhua Ningmei’s 1 million tons of methanol were overhauled on schedule and a small amount of methanol was produced outside. The demand side was well supported. In the middle of June, with the continuous fermentation of Baofeng phase II 2.2 million methanol feeding test run and other news, the transaction atmosphere in various regions in the Northwest has been weakened, and most of the industry has left the market to wait and see. In the last ten days of the month, the price of upstream factories fell broadly under the demand of shipment, and downstream and traders actively sought for bargains and replenishment.

Calcium carbide: this month, the market of calcium carbide went up. In May, the overall price was increased by 400-450 yuan / ton. At present, the main transaction price in Wuhai is 2650 yuan / ton. The overall delivery in Northwest China is smooth, and the downstream procurement is active. Affected by the price callback, the recent operating rate has increased and the supply has begun to increase. In the early stage of Ningxia, the calcium carbide devices shut down have been electrified, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. At present, the market trade price is hanging upside down, resulting in the lack of power for the factory price to keep rising. In June, the maintenance of downstream PVC and paste resin enterprises gradually increased, and the market entered the stage of supply and demand game.

In the downstream, the main downstream PTMEG: most of the BDO supporting PTMEG units have been started and maintained at 70-80%. In the BDO plant of outsourcing: Hangzhou Sanlong low negative operation; Xiaoxing chemical industry stopped for maintenance on May 18, which is estimated to be about 15 days, depending on the maintenance situation. Downstream PBT: BDO supporting downstream PBT: Meizhou Bay operates normally; Kaixiang is restarted in mid May; Tunhe River load is about 50%. BDO factory: Yizheng Chemical fiber load 60%; Nantong star normal operation; Kanghui one line operation, later or restart another line; Changshu Changchun load 50%; Wuxi Xingsheng low load; Zhejiang Meiyuan, Shandong weijiao parking. About 40% of the PBT industry was started, with limited demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month’s average rise and fall was 3.66%..

In the future, at present, BDO’s production profit changes from profit to loss, and the supplier’s mentality of stabilizing the decline increases. Next month, many factories plan to repair to reduce inventory pressure. The demand side gradually warms up with the start of PBT and PTMEG in the main downstream, and the demand may increase. However, considering that BDO still has a certain amount of social inventory, and the downstream demand recovers slowly in a short period of time, BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline in the first and middle of next month, but the space is limited; in the last ten days, with the demand side replenishment, the market may stabilize, and pay attention to the downstream construction and device maintenance.

Recently, the market price of light rare earth in China has bottomed out and rebounded. The prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy have continued to rise, and the market of light rare earth has ushered in “spring”. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on June 4, the rare earth index was 334 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 66.60% from the highest 1000 points (2011-12-06) in the cycle, and up 23.25% from the lowest 271 point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of June 4, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth rose by 1500 yuan / ton to 274500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy rose by 3000 yuan / ton to 345500 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide and metal neodymium rose to different degrees.

Recently, the demand of domestic rare earth industry is better than before. With the gradual improvement of European and American economy, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers is increasing, and the price of praseodymium neodymium rare earth continues to rise, but the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list of the second batch of goods subject to us and Canadian tariffs, which mainly includes: rare earth metal ore, silver ore and its concentrate, gold ore, nickel alloy plate / strip / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube with an outer diameter of no more than 10 cm, titanium tube, nickel cadmium battery, etc. This time, the tariff imposed by the 301 measure against the US will not be added to the rare earth metal ore, and the added tariff will be refunded. It is possible to promote the import of rare earth metal ore, which is a good support for the praseodymium neodymium oxide Market.

Heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production in the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth and the price. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth, once the collection and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the price rise. In the near future, the market price of heavy rare earth is generally high; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles has recovered, and the market price of heavy rare earth remains high.

According to the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth enterprises issued by the Ministry of information technology, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprises’ application, forming the compilation of relevant supporting policies for the resumption of rare earth industry. The policy is favorable to support the development of rare earth industry, while the relationship between China and the United States is somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is slightly higher, and the light rare earth market is gradually picking up.

Recently, the domestic demand for rare earth is higher than before. In addition, the supply of medium heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency expect that the market price of rare earth in the later period will continue to rise slightly.

The domestic BDO market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 8280 yuan / ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the end of the week was 8260 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.24% in the week, 10.61% on month, 8.02% on year.

The domestic BDO market continued to decline this week. At present, most of the factories are in a state of loss, and the willingness of suppliers to let profits weakens. At the same time, the whole line of Meike will be shut down for maintenance from June 3, which is expected to end on June 30; Cathay Pacific plans to shut down for maintenance from June 5, and the market supply may decrease, which to some extent supports the factory to continue to support the market. However, the market finally returns to the demand side. In addition to the improvement of TPU start-up, the demand for the main PTMEG plant – Xiaoxing maintenance needs to be restored. There is no obvious fluctuation in other downstream industries, which is still low load start-up. Although the current market price is relatively low, and some of the downstream stock intention slightly increased compared with the previous period, the price depression still exists. Considering the limited stimulation of parking maintenance on downstream demand, the early inventory is difficult to digest in a short period of time, some manufacturers actively negotiate and clear the inventory, reduce the high-end supply, increase the low-end supply, and continue to focus on the weak downward to promote the single transaction.

In terms of devices, this week, MEC will stop for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Tianye phase I 30000 ton device will stop for maintenance on May 18, which is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices is uncertain; Guotai load is 50%, which is planned to stop for maintenance from June 5; black cat load is 50%, which is planned for maintenance in June; Panjin Dalian will keep maintenance plan in June, which is uncertain.

In terms of raw materials, methanol market in Northwest China this week showed a downward trend as a whole. The second phase methanol plant of Baofeng in Ningxia successively produced products, which will not be exported this week. However, the 600000 ton olefin plant of Shenhua Yulin resumed production as scheduled, and the demand gap for normal procurement in this week will be eliminated. New Austria, Rongxin and other major factories have stopped selling, and new orders are relatively smooth. At the beginning of the week, the factory shipment in Guanzhong area was blocked. After the strong rebound of Zhouzhong futures, some traders came into the market loose, and Baoji area saw a narrow push up. The delivery atmosphere in Xinjiang is acceptable. The main factory in Xinjiang Xinye methanol plant has continued maintenance, and the mainstream price is strong under the support of low supply.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market remained stable as a whole. Affected by the uneven regional arrival, some purchasing enterprises raised the ex factory price. The overall delivery of goods in Northwest China is smooth, but the recent trade enthusiasm has been weakened, increasing the market wait-and-see. In May, the calcium carbide market was raised by 450 yuan / ton as a whole, the market loss was reversed, and the overall enthusiasm for commencement increased. At present, the market is cautious to watch the downstream pressing situation. In the near future, Tangshan Sanyou, Lutai chemical, Dezhou Shihua PVC maintenance or planned maintenance are expected to resume procurement in succession next week, and the downstream stock recovery situation becomes the focus of attention.

Downstream demand: PBT: Kaixiang and Meizhouwan units are in normal operation; Meiyuan and Shandong weijiao are in parking; one Kanghui line is in operation, and another line will be opened later or later; Yizheng Chemical fiber load is about 60%, a 60000 ton production line is planned to be overhauled in July; Wuxi Xingsheng load is 50%; Tunhe unit current load is 50%; Changshu Changchun load is 50%. PTMEG: supporting PTMEG load is about 60%. Outsourcing plant: Xiaoxing will stop for maintenance on May 18, with an estimated 15 days; Sanlong’s load has increased. Other downstream: 50% of GBL industry’s negative load; 50% of Pu slurry load; about 70-80% of TPU current load; PBAT’s start-up is relatively stable.

At present, with the parking maintenance of Merck and other companies, the market starts to decline, and the supply side is certainly good, supporting the factory’s price keeping mentality. At the same time, the profit space has been greatly narrowed, and the willingness of suppliers to let profits has been weakened. The downstream market continued to slump, and some industries recovered slowly in the medium and short term. At present, social inventory is still overstocked in the upper and middle reaches, and active promotion is still the key work, but there is limited space for profit. BDO analysts predict that the weak domestic BDO market will be dominated by stalemate next week, focusing on the guidance of the weekend industry meeting.

According to the data of business agency: on June 1, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 2000 yuan / ton. As of June 5, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade formic acid was 1933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.33%. This week, the formic acid market was mainly weak and stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a weak trend of maintaining stability. After foreign trade export restrictions, the domestic spot inventory was sufficient, and some manufacturers lowered their prices. At present, the market demand for formic acid is general, and the unit delivery is normal. Price: this week, the price of industrial barreled water is generally around 2192 yuan / ton, and the factory price of main industrial purified water of formic acid is about 2000 yuan / ton. As of Friday (June 5), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 1950 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. 1550 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Sanan Chemical Co., Ltd. 1550 yuan / ton; Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. 1750 yuan / ton; Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. 85% formic acid industrial barrel price 2300 yuan / ton.

The mainstream of the liquid ammonia Market of the upstream product of formic acid is stable, moderate and narrow adjustment, and the prices of some regions are slightly increased, so the market demand is acceptable. The domestic caustic soda market fluctuates in a narrow range. The ex factory price of some manufacturers is increased by 10-20 yuan / ton. The downstream is mostly purchased on demand. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later period. In the second half of the week, the market was basically stable, with general market demand. Upstream products have no good support for formic acid cost. The demand for formic acid in the downstream leather and pesticide industries is relatively stable and the sales situation is general.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of the business association, the domestic industrial grade formic acid market as a whole maintains a weak stability. The upstream products are in weak operation, the formic acid price has no good support, and the downstream demand is general. The formic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone was narrowed. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week was 5980 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the end of the week was 6020 yuan / ton, up 0.67% in the week. The price rose 13.16% month on month compared with the same period last year, down 25.06% compared with the same period last year.

In the week, the market of cyclohexanone was sorted out in a narrow range, the global resumption of production was promoted, the crude oil overall showed a rising trend, the pure benzene market was in horizontal operation, the cost surface support was relatively stable, the starting load of cyclohexanone commodity units was relatively stable, the factory spot pressure was not large, the downstream caprolactam spot market was stable and rising, the chemical fiber factory’s demand order for cyclohexanone was acceptable, but the downstream solvent order was insufficient Good, for high price conflict, a factory in Shandong Thursday offer prices down, low market prices appear, traders cautious trading.

Raw materials, pure benzene: this week, the price of pure benzene fell in the north and rose in the south. As of June 4, the main negotiation in East China was around 3550 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton compared with last week, and that in Shandong was around 3600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Caprolactam: at the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s price of caprolactam remained stable at 10200 yuan / ton this week, and Shenyuan’s price increased by 200 to 10400 yuan / ton this week. On the spot side, supported by the contract price and no inventory pressure on the caprolactam plant at present, the seller mainly pushed up this week. In addition, the spot purchase volume of some polymerization plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, supporting the continuous increase of caprolactam delivery price.

Adipic acid: this week, the crude oil and pure benzene market showed an overall upward trend. The domestic pure benzene followed up the overall shock, and the cost support for adipic acid was fair. The factory has strong intention to support the market, and the listing is relatively high, among which Liaohua executed 7000 yuan / ton; Zhonghao, Huafeng, Haili, Hualu, Tianli and Taihua executed 6900 yuan / ton. However, this month Dafeng plant may be expected to restart, Huafeng phase IV large-scale air downstream mentality. Therefore, the wait-and-see mood in the lower reaches of junior high school is still there, the enthusiasm for inquiry is general, more rigid needs small orders to make up positions, and the actual single trading is limited.

From the demand side, the current caprolactam spot supply is tight, but the price difference between cyclohexanone and caprolactam is near the cost line, and the solvent purchasing power is insufficient. It is expected that the downstream purchasing sentiment is not high. In addition, due to the high price of phenol, the demand for cyclohexanone in the chemical fiber market may still have some support. Supply side, cyclohexanone spot inventory pressure is not big, with orders slow down, inventory pressure or further increase. The supply and demand are facing each other. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the market of cyclohexanone will continue to be stable in the short term, and the price of raw material pure benzene and the demand for chemical fiber will still need attention in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China this week rose steadily and then stabilized, with the weekly low price at the beginning of the week of 6643 yuan / ton; the weekly high price on Thursday of 6906 yuan / ton, and the weekly increase of 6902 yuan / ton on Friday of 3.90% and the weekly amplitude of 3.97%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Last month, Shandong propylene prices fell after shocks, and began to rise at the end of the month. On the first day, the price of propylene continued the upward trend on Sunday, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan / ton. On the second day, the price rose again by about 100 yuan / ton. On the third day, it continued to rise by 100 yuan / ton, and on the fourth day, it rose slightly by 50 yuan / ton. Today, it is generally stable. Some enterprises have a slight downward trend. Now, the market transaction is between 6850-7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton.

At the end of May, the international crude oil rose slightly. On June 1, 2 and 3, the crude oil price rose significantly. On June 4, the crude oil market fell slightly. The output reduction of OPEC meeting stopped somewhat, and its effect on propylene was slightly weakened.

In recent days, PP futures market is relatively cold. After rising at the beginning of this week, PP spot market has been stable, with a weekly increase of 2.40%, which has little impact on propylene.

This week’s acrylic acid market rose slightly to maintain stability, with a weekly increase of 0.78%, having little impact on propylene.

This week’s Propylene Oxide Market pulled up after a slight fall, with a weekly increase of 2.61% and a weekly amplitude of 3.00%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin remained stable after being lowered this week, with a weekly decline of 2.11%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol slightly declined, with a weekly decline of 0.60%, which had little impact on propylene.

Octanol rose steadily this week, up 2.25%, slightly positive for propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, rose sharply in the early stage and fell sharply. This week, it suddenly rose sharply again, with a weekly increase of 11.01%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Phenol Market in Shandong Province continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 5.19%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Shandong acetone market rose sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 20.28%, which had a greater positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of business and chemical branch, the international crude oil market has a good support, but to a limited extent. However, the downstream operating rate is relatively high, propylene inventory is not much, supply is slightly tight, and some downstream upstream is also relatively obvious, but the current trading is still relatively cold, and it is expected that propylene prices will start to stabilize in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on May 31, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid was 14666.67 yuan / ton, up 2.33% from the beginning of the month, and the average price rose more than 300 yuan / ton. This month, the trend was stable and upward.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the salicylic acid market is improving. After May 1st Festival, with the restart of foreign economy, the export situation of salicylic acid improved, the orders increased, the starting load of manufacturers increased, with the production and sales, the pressure was not great, some manufacturers operated at full load, the mentality of the industry improved, at the same time, the price of phenol at the end of raw material rose sharply in May, with strong support, the price of salicylic acid rose sharply, and then it rose. At present, domestic demand has basically recovered, but most of the salicylic acid is exported. At this stage, the demand side is still not fully released, so it is difficult to have practical support for the rise. The manufacturer’s mentality is stable, and the trend of salicylic acid is stable after the rise in May, and some enterprises reduce their prices according to their own shipments. As of May 31, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in MaoYuan of Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the industrial price of professional chemical salicylic acid in Hebei is about 14000 yuan / ton, and the industrial price of salicylic acid in Longxin pharmaceutical in Shandong is about 15500 yuan / ton, with little change in Enterprise price.

Phenol rose sharply in May. At present, the arrival volume at the end of May is relatively sufficient, and the phenol Market is weak. According to the monitoring of the business association, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers has remained stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market offer in East China is 6650-6700 yuan / ton, that in South China is 6850 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and surrounding Yanshan is 6900 yuan / ton. This week’s opening phenol Market in the positive situation of tight supply, the cargo holders actively push up the market, and then from the recent transaction situation, the downstream has obvious resistance to high price phenol, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market volume is not optimistic. The business agency expects the phenol Market to run steadily in the short term, and expects the reference offer of the market in East China to be 6700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the salicylic acid analyst of the business agency, the price of raw materials is rising, which drives the price of salicylic acid up and up. The demand side is getting better, but the release is insufficient. The manufacturer’s mentality is mainly to stabilize, and there is no price adjustment plan. It is expected that the market of salicylic acid will maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there was no significant change in the melamine market on June 3. On the 3rd, the average price of melamine enterprises was 5066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 0.65% lower than that of May 3rd. At present, the supply side of melamine is stable, the downstream demand side is general, the market is just in demand, and the melamine market is mainly stable. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 4600 yuan / ton.

On June 2, the melamine commodity index was 54.48, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 45.52% lower than the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the urea market in Shandong Province rose slightly on June 3. The price of liquid ammonia in the upstream is high and consolidated, which provides certain cost support for urea. The downstream rubber plate factory and compound fertilizer factory follow up appropriately. The middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. The price of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future, with limited impact on melamine.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 2, 2020, there are 19 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including one commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are sulfur (5.70%), hydrogen peroxide (3.00%), and organosilicon DMC (2.36%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month-on-month basis, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are butadiene (- 8.19%), polysilicon (- 3.14%) and acetic acid (- 1.24%). The average price of this day is 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the recent slight rise in the price of raw urea has limited impact on melamine, and the downstream just needs to purchase. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly stable in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

 
According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on June 3, the spot nickel price was 103783.33 yuan / ton, up 0.84% compared with the previous trading day, down 8.75% compared with the beginning of the year, up 6.1% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, ISM manufacturing industry in the U.S. stabilized at a low level. Overnight, LUNI nickel rose 2.22% to a three-month high. Domestic favorable policies continued, and the prospect of industrial metal demand may improve, supporting the rise of nickel price. In terms of nickel ore, xinka, the Philippines and Guatemala will play an alternative role. The domestic epidemic in the Philippines is serious, resulting in limited supply of nickel ore and low domestic production of nickel and iron. Indonesia’s ferronickel production is in good condition and has not been affected by too many epidemics. The port inventory of nickel ore declined and the price of ore steadily strengthened. In terms of consumption, the sales of new energy vehicles are down, and subsidies are expected to continue to mitigate the impact of the industry; the supply and demand of downstream stainless steel are weak, and short-term consumption pressure suppresses the rebound space above the nickel price, but the output of stainless steel is expected to increase, supporting the rebound of nickel price below.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: tight supply, weak downstream consumption, nickel price is expected to maintain high volatility trend.

In May, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then stabilized. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 3890 yuan / ton, and the domestic butadiene market price at the end of the month was 4184 yuan / ton, up 7.57% in the month, with a year-on-year drop of 51.07% compared with the same period last year.

Under the expectation of unit overhaul in May, Sinopec’s price rose continuously at the end of April, which led to a wave of increase in butadiene market from the end of April to the first ten days of May. In the month, Ningmei, Zhongsha, Yangba, Lanxing, Chengzhi, srbang and other devices were shut down. In addition, the temporary short-term shutdown of Dalian Hengli device in the last ten days of the month, the operation rate of domestic butadiene industry was as low as 60%. At the same time, Shandong Huayu and Wanda rubber devices needed foreign raw materials, and the supply and demand fundamentals were good to a certain extent, boosting the market. However, since the middle of May, the ships arrived at the port intensively, and the downstream raw material inventory was relatively abundant, which resulted in the poor transaction of high price goods, and the increase of suppliers was not effectively followed up; at the end of the month, the export sales of northeast manufacturers increased, and the poor transaction once dragged the bottom price of Fushun auction down to 3100 Yuan / ton, although the price increase has brought support to the mentality of some businesses, the downstream wait-and-see situation is still obvious, and the performance of East China market is weak.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China increased by 500 yuan / ton to 4500 yuan / ton compared with the end of April, which was maintained in May; Nanjing Chengzhi 100000 ton / year oxidation and dehydrogenation unit April 7 Daily shutdown: the current shutdown status is continued, and it is planned to restart next month; Sinopec’s 200000 t / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the planned restart time may be July; Shenhua Ningmei’s 64000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 5, and the planned restart time may be early June; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for a short time in June, and the price will be up to the end of the month Refer to 3780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of industrial chain, the downstream SBR: according to the monitoring of business agency data, the domestic SBR market was mainly volatile in May, with the price at the beginning of the month at 8220 yuan / ton, and then slightly increased to the mid month high of 8280 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month dropped to 8160 yuan / ton, with the overall end of the month falling 0.73% compared with the beginning of the month. On May 30, the SBR commodity index was 26.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 74.63% from 103.60 (2011-09-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 3.83% from 25.31, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: May cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weak shock. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early May was 7800 yuan / ton, then rose to the monthly high of 7875 yuan / ton, and fell to 7712 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 1.12% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On May 30, the CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 23.17, which was flat with yesterday, 77.37% lower than 102.40 (2011-09-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.48% higher than 22.61, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

In the future, the overall operating rate of butadiene industry in China is relatively low in the near future, but under the influence of concentrated arrival of outward shipment, the supply side is not showing good sustainability, and the abundant supply and weak transaction in the downstream and circulation links put pressure on the market. The downstream industry’s profit stimulated construction is relatively high, and the demand side has the bottom support for Butadiene at the low price node, but the domestic butadiene market fundamentals are still weak as a whole, and the butadiene analysts of the business club expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will fluctuate slightly.