According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, affected by the poor demand, the dichloromethane market in Shandong fell sharply. As of June 16, the average price in Shandong was about 2130 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton per day, down 4.48% from the same period last week.

Commencement of plant capacity of the enterprise

440000 tons / year in Jinling, Shandong 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000t / a parking

40 million tons / year of Luxi Chemical Industry 60%

280000t / A, 50% in Dongyue, Shandong

Jiangxi Liwen 120000 tons / year 70-80%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000t / a full load

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

300000 yuan / year, 70% in quhua, Zhejiang

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 90%

At present, domestic dichloromethane production enterprises have been operating at a high level as a whole, and the spot market supply is sufficient, but the downstream market demand is weak, and the situation that the market supply exceeds the demand gradually appears. In order to prevent the increase of the future market stock pressure, the enterprises will immediately yield profits for shipment, and the situation of competitive sales among enterprises is obvious.

From the perspective of industrial chain, the upstream and downstream markets of dichloromethane are not performing well. The methanol market is volatile and downward, and the main manufacturers have strong intention to hold a firm price, but the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the purchase intention is flat. At present, the average price in Shandong Province is about 1620 yuan / ton. The overall demand of the downstream solvent film pharmaceutical industry is poor, the rigid demand is insufficient, and the refrigerant market has excess capacity, but the overall operation is poor, and the price falls to a new low within the year.

On the other hand, the high and firm price of raw material liquid chlorine has become the only favorable factor to support the price of dichloromethane. At present, domestic liquid chlorine enterprises are facing the coexistence of maintenance and resumption of production, the overall supply is tight, and the enterprises have a good intention to hold the price. At present, 800-1000 yuan / ton.

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, at present, the supply of dichloromethane is more than the demand in the market. With the increasing inventory pressure of enterprises, the behavior of profit selling among enterprises is obvious. However, the firm price of raw material liquid chlorine leads to the lack of space for enterprises to reduce their quotation. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak in a short period of time, and the space for reduction is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of phosphoric acid in China on June 16 was 4950 yuan / ton, down 2.94% compared with Tuesday (9), 4.81% compared with 5200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (1), and 8.79% higher than the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

In June, the phosphoric acid market was weak, and the price continued to fall. After the implementation of the high water price for raw material yellow phosphorus, the price fell to a low level. Due to the close relationship between phosphoric acid (thermal process) and yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus decreased rapidly, the cost end support collapsed, and the price of phosphoric acid also decreased. The trading center continued to move downward, and some enterprises decreased significantly, with a maximum of 400 yuan. At present, the trend of phosphoric acid continues to decline, the wait-and-see mood of enterprises increases, the trading atmosphere is general, the market transactions are mostly concentrated in the middle and low end, the high-end price begins to decline, and the shipment is under pressure. At present, the transaction of wet process phosphoric acid is acceptable. Due to the low inventory and good transaction, the price of the enterprise has not been greatly reduced. However, on the whole, the supply and demand of phosphoric acid market are weak, the trend continues to decline, and the future market is not optimistic.

According to the monitoring of the business association, as of June 16, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 4950 yuan / ton, and the price in Sichuan region was about 4750 yuan / ton – 5200 yuan / ton, with a downward trend; the price in Guangxi region was about 4730 yuan / ton, with a downward trend; the price in Yunnan region was about 4800 yuan / ton, with a weak transaction; the price in Beijing region was about 4900 yuan / ton, with a downward trend; the price in Hubei region was about 4900 yuan / ton, with a downward trend The price is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the price drops; the price in Jiangsu is about 4500 yuan / ton, and the price is temporarily stable; the price in Tianjin is about 5300 yuan / ton, and the price in Tianjin is down

The data shows that the export volume this year is significantly reduced compared with last year due to the impact of public health events. In March, enterprises returned to work one after another, with a significant increase in export volume. However, the export volume fell back in April, with the upgrading of overseas public health events, with a sharp decrease in export volume. Only a few big companies are selling goods, and the business is in a negative state of mind. Most of them are sold domestically.

Upstream, raw phosphorus ore market is currently in the off-season, the downstream demand is weak, and the market trading is cold. It is expected that the recent market price changes are limited. It is not excluded that some regions make a small profit in the actual negotiations for the accumulation of orders in the later period, so as to drive the market downward adjustment.

Yellow phosphorus market price decreased. In June, Yunnan Province entered into the wet season. After the implementation of the wet season electricity price, the cost of the enterprise went down, and the market price fell to a certain extent. The overall market sales situation is general, the downstream procurement is more cautious, who uses who takes. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, in the near future, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been reduced, and the price of phosphoric acid has been following the decline. Downstream enterprises are cautious in their inquiry and wait-and-see attitude has been rising. It is expected that the trend of phosphoric acid will continue to decline in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price in the later period.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, as of June 15, the price of bromine in Shandong continued to decline, down 1.38% in a single day. At present, the average price is about 27833 yuan / ton, down 19.32% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, the overall supply of bromine in the domestic market is more and more obvious. The production and operation of bromine enterprises in North China is stable, while the maintenance of some small factories in Shandong Province has not significantly affected the market supply. The overall spot supply of the market is stable. The downstream flame retardant market is recovering, but the manufacturers mainly consume inventory, and the overall operation rate has not been significantly improved. At present, the quotation of mainstream bromine enterprises is about 27000-28500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of sulfuric acid market is weak and stable, the inventory of enterprises is declining, and the downstream demand is flat, at present, it is about 285 yuan / ton; the sulfur market is narrow and upward, the enterprise starts to decline, the inventory is low, the market supply is reduced, at present, it is about 620 yuan / ton; the price of domestic soda ash continues to be weak, the market transaction is flat, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is aggravating, at present, it is about 1250 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market transactions of bromine gradually recovered, most of the enterprises focused on inventory and shipment, the market operation rate was not significantly improved, the demand for bromine was not good, the start-up of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries was flat, the bears on bromine were obvious, and the overall trading was cautious.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business association, the bromine market is abundant in spot supply, poor performance in downstream construction, insufficient support for bromine demand, prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the industry, and low price influx of imported bromine. It is expected that the domestic bromine market will operate in a weak position in a short period of time

On June 13, crude benzene commodity index was 47.53, flat compared with yesterday, 63.95% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 55.63% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The weekly crude benzene Market in Japan rose from June 8 to 12, 2020. The ex factory price in North China was 2901.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3101.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 6.89%.

This week’s crude oil market fell after a shock. On Wednesday and Thursday, it rose slightly and then fell rapidly. As of June 11, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. fell sharply. The settlement price of major contracts was 36.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 3.26 U.S. dollars or 8.23%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of main contracts was 38.55 US dollars / barrel or 7.62%, mainly due to the restart of epidemic demand concerns and the record high of crude oil storage in the United States. On Thursday, U.S. stocks and commodity futures market represented by crude oil generally fell, market concerns dominated, and risk assets were sold again.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

date

Price after increase

Adjustment amount

Unit: yuan / ton

June 5th

three thousand and six hundred

100↑

Yuan / ton

June 10th

three thousand and seven hundred

100↑

Yuan / ton

Domestic crude benzene price went up this week. At the beginning of this week, under the triple positive influence of international crude oil going up, pure benzene going out and Sinopec’s pure benzene going up, crude benzene substantially increased the bidding price of this round. In addition, the operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises has reached a high level in 2020, which promoted the crude benzene price to go up further. The market mentality is good, and the market is obviously warmer. By Thursday, crude benzene in Shandong Province The bidding price is increased by 200 yuan / ton, and now 3100 yuan / ton is implemented.

Since the late May, the coking enterprises in Shandong Province have increased their efforts to limit production, reduced the operating rate, continued to increase the price of coke, limited supply in some areas, and a certain decline in crude benzene production. The coking enterprises have a heavy mentality of price fixing, and the price of crude benzene is high. By the end of the week, the crude oil price fell sharply, and the pure benzene market took the lead in falling back. The operating rates of styrene, aniline and other enterprises in the downstream of hydrobenzene fell slightly this week, and the market price fell. As of June 12, the styrene price in Shandong Province was 5550 yuan / ton, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 0.6% compared with last week. The pressure on the cost of hydrogenated benzene increased, the crude benzene market also came under pressure, and the market mentality generally weakened.

According to the business community in the aftermarket, the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively large, with insufficient enthusiasm to keep up with the rise and lack of support. The basic negative factors of crude benzene market began to emerge at the end of the week. It is expected that the crude benzene market will fluctuate and fall next week, with lowered expectations.

Magnesium market trend

On June 15, 2020, the ex factory cash tax price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas was basically stable. At present, the mainstream quotation range is 13050-13400 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 13050-13200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13150-13250 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13200-13400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13050-13200 yuan / ton.

 
According to the data of the business agency, the average price in the domestic market on the 15th was 13183 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.25% compared with the average price of 13216.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of June (6.1).

Stable operation for half a month

Since the middle of April, the price of magnesium has fallen to the lowest level in three years, and the willingness of some manufacturers to stop production and repair has increased. On the one hand, the trading in the export market is weak, the price is running at a low level, and the pressure on the operation cost of manufacturers is large; on the other hand, the supply and demand in the domestic market is relatively stable, affected by the cost factors, the manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold the price, and the market game tends to be stable.

Since June, the market of magnesium ingots has been running steadily, and it has not been able to walk out of the “V” shape running up trend of nonferrous plate since April, which is mainly based on two factors:

1. In recent years, the price trend of magnesium ingot is good and relatively high;

2. The export proportion of magnesium ingots is relatively large, and the external environment has a relatively large impact on the price of magnesium ingots.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingot is low, and the weather is gradually turning hot. It is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply end will have some advantages in magnesium price. However, based on the current weak demand, it is expected that the stable operation will be dominated in the near future, and the later stage will pay attention to the change of downstream market purchase rhythm.

1、 Trend analysis

On June 15, spot copper offered 46891.67 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day, down 4.37% from the beginning of the year, up 0.94% year on year. LME copper three-month contract pressure shocks weakened, Asian market closed at $5689.5, down 1.56%. Shanghai copper’s main contract opened quickly and fell 1.20% to close at 46280 yuan.

2、 Market analysis

The national copper Council of Chile forecasts that global copper demand will drop 417000 tons in 2020 and 537000 tons next year. According to statistics, by the end of the year, about 27.5% of the world’s copper mines will be affected, of which Peru, Chile and Panama will be the most affected. At present, most of the overseas mines have resumed production, the price difference between refined and waste is expanding, the decline of inventory is slowing down, the demand side is likely to turn weak seasonally, and the resistance factor of copper price is gradually showing. However, the resumption of production and work in Europe and the United States is still continuing, and the supply side is still difficult to make a big change, supporting the copper price.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperatives believe that the favorable factors of copper price are weakened, the supply is increased, and the demand is weakened. It is expected that the copper price will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises as of June 11 was 9800 yuan / ton, up 9.70% compared with June 1 (8933.33 yuan / ton) and 9.29% compared with May 11.

Market review: according to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on June 1, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 8933.33 yuan / ton, on June 2, the price of some enterprises was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, supported by the increase of raw material price and new single increment in the downstream, on June 3, the price of propylene oxide stopped falling and started to rise, on June 4, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9100 yuan / ton, with strong cost support, no pressure on factory inventory, and downstream The price of raw propylene increased to 9166.67 yuan / ton on the 5th, after the weekend, the market of raw propylene declined slightly on the 8th, but some propylene oxide manufacturers decreased their load, the supply in the field decreased, and the price increased to 9400 yuan / ton in fear of rising downstream. On the 9th, the raw propylene continued to decline slightly, but the supply side supported the manufacturer’s market mentality, and the price rose to 9600 yuan / ton on the 10th The raw material propylene market has declined significantly, but due to the overall supply reduction, the manufacturer has no pressure support, and the price continues to rise to 9700 yuan / ton. The downstream follow-up is average. The raw material propylene price continued to decline on November 11, but there is no inventory pressure in the propylene oxide plant. With the support of planned maintenance of some subsequent units, the price rose again to 9800 yuan / ton. The downstream is in conflict with the high price raw materials Hope to strengthen the mentality.

Raw materials: as of June 11, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, Shandong propylene prices fell after shocks, and began to rise at the end of the month. On the first day, the price of propylene continued the upward trend on Sunday, with a slight increase of about 50 yuan / ton. On the second day, the price was raised again by about 100 yuan / ton. On the third day, it continued to rise by 100 yuan / ton. On the fourth day, it rose slightly by 50 yuan / ton. On the fifth to the seventh day, it remained stable. On the eighth day, the price of individual enterprises fell slightly. On the ninth day, the price generally fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the tenth day, it fell again by about 100 yuan / ton. Today, it is still down by 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transactions reach 6550-6950 The main price is about 6600 yuan / ton. Propylene delivery is not smooth, a little inventory pressure.

Downstream: according to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 11, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in the mainstream area was around 11700 yuan / ton, up 4.78% compared with the price on June 1. As of June 11, the new single offer of downstream soft foam polyether kept up with the increase of raw material propylene oxide in a small margin, and the procurement enthusiasm in the downstream was general, and it was mainly cautious to wait and see.

3、 Future forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that the recent weak operation of raw propylene, cost support weakened. At present, the overall supply of propylene oxide is reduced, and there is no inventory pressure for the time being. In addition, there are some maintenance plans for subsequent units, and manufacturers hold firm prices. However, with the price rising to a high level, there is resistance to high price raw materials in the downstream. The follow-up is general, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be mainly stagnant, finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material prices and factories Message guide for plant operation.

Under the pressure of cost, the market of bisphenol A has gone through a round of big rise, and began to stabilize in the middle of June. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market offer was 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, 12450 yuan / ton on June 9. After the May Day holiday, the market of bisphenol A has risen 41.48% in total, and 12366 yuan / ton on June 11, with a narrow correction. At present, the cost has both declined, and the weak cost has made the BPA, which was originally not optimistic in demand, turn down, and the factory has mostly suspended the offer.

From the cost point of view, the overall surge of phenol and acetone has been temporarily stopped and turned downward. Especially after two months of sharp rise of acetone, traders are eager to make shipment and offer lower obviously, which is mainly reflected in the 1000 yuan / ton decline of offer in the mainstream East China region. At present, the East China market talks are 11000-11300 yuan / ton, and the supply in other mainstream regions is still tight and stable as a whole. Another important raw material phenol, discussed in East China, decreased from 8000 yuan / ton in the past few days to 7800-7850 yuan / ton. Therefore, the theoretical cost range of BPA plant is (9756-9880) + 2000 = 11750-11880 yuan / ton, and most plants are near the profit and loss line.

In recent two months, bisphenol a market has risen sharply, especially acetone market, from 4000 yuan / ton to 12500 yuan / ton. In the middle of June, acetone turned downward, and the upward step of bisphenol a stopped abruptly. Although acetone only accounts for 0.27 per unit of bisphenol A in production, the popular acetone market still has a great impact on it. This week, the acetone market is stable and excessive. As a whole, the supply of acetone market is still tight Zhang, the operation rate of the plant has declined, and the port supply is not sufficient. It is expected that the overall acetone level will be stable or rebound in a narrow range next week. Another important raw material phenol, the market opened on June 8, the factory pushed up sharply, the market mentality was strongly supported, and the firm offer was up to 8000-8200 yuan / ton. However, the terminal market is not optimistic, and the demand side is low, which makes it difficult to push up. At present, the market negotiation is 7800 yuan / ton.

The downstream liquid epoxy resin and PC showed an upward trend, while the other downstream was not optimistic. The downstream liquid epoxy resin operates at a high level, the terminal wind power industry develops generally, and the enterprise’s operating rate operates stably as a whole. The mainstream negotiation of the epoxy resin market operates at a high level of 20000-20500 yuan / ton, and the short-term market remains stable. In terms of PC, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price rose from 12300 yuan / ton on May 8 to 14933 yuan / ton on June 10. On June 11, the market was stable, with a monthly increase of 23.4%. The current upward trend was suspended, and the terminal demand still needs to be paid attention to later.

According to the business community, although phenol is still in a downward trend and acetone is temporarily high and stable, the overall cost of raw materials is still strong, but the terminal is not optimistic and the downstream just needs to be purchased. On the other hand, the inventory pressure of bisphenol a plant is not great, and the mentality of large customers is acceptable, and the downstream wait-and-see is increasing. Under the supply-demand game, there are many merchants who make profits and sell. It is expected that the short-term market of bisphenol A will be mainly weak and stable, focusing on the change of the demand side of the terminal purchasers. The market quotation reference is 12000-12500 yuan / ton.

On June 11, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at $36.34/barrel, down $3.26 or 8.23%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at US $38.55/barrel or 7.62%, mainly due to the restart of epidemic demand concerns and the record high of US crude oil storage.

After the European and American countries restart the economic fast forward key, the demand for crude oil has rebounded, but the worry that the outbreak will give a second strike to crude oil is growing. On Thursday, U.S. stocks and commodity futures markets, represented by crude oil, tumbled, with worries dominating and risky assets selling again.

The latest phase of novel coronavirus pneumonia report released by who seems to be in a more intense trend. The report showed novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed novel coronavirus pneumonia cases in 128419 cases, and 5347 cases died. The most serious cases in the Americas region were 3485245 cases (70071 new cases) and 189544 deaths (3681 new cases). The total number of coronavirus infections in the United States exceeded 2 million on Wednesday, with new infections rising slightly after a five week decline. Although most states in the United States have cancelled or eased restrictions on activities, fuel consumption is still about 20% lower than normal due to the cautious attitude of consumers. At the same time, the Federal Reserve predicts that the unemployment rate in the United States will reach 9.3% by the end of 2020, which will take several years to fall, indicating that the real recovery of demand may take longer. If demand does not fully recover, US refiners and shippers may be hit again, and investment will be suspended for a long time. The whole crude oil production chain may be in a deeper crisis due to the problem of excess.

In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory reached a record high. Data released by the energy information administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased by 5.7 million barrels to a record high of 538 million barrels in the week ending June 5. Before that, analysts had expected that crude oil inventory would decrease by about 1.01 million barrels, mainly due to the recent increase of crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia. This is also the rise of US crude oil inventory after the decline in May, especially the growth of oil products and consecutive weeks, which rekindled the market’s concern about future demand.

In the short term, the demand of oil market is still subject to the plague of the epidemic. Before that, governments relaxed the restrictions related to the epidemic and raised the optimism of the recovery of crude oil demand. At the same time, OPEC + extended the production reduction agreement, which also helped fuel the oil market, leading to soaring oil prices. WTI once broke the $40 mark, and the market selectively ignored the adverse factors that the epidemic was still uncontrolled. In addition, OPEC + is not monolithic. Although the record production reduction continued to July, in the long run, the market still faces the risk of oversupply. In particular, some OPEC countries, such as Iraq and Nigeria, fail to abide by the production reduction agreement. The negative production reduction of some countries may harm the cooperation of OPEC + production reduction alliance. In the view of the business community, the short-term oil price will continue to fluctuate broadly Situation, do not rule out the possibility that the oil price continues to callback, 40 US dollars is still a threshold for repeated exploration of crude oil.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11000 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11016 yuan / ton, up 0.15%.

At present, the price of domestic activated carbon is slightly increased, and the ex factory price of East China coconut water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the downstream orders of domestic activated carbon market are cautious, some of them remain on the sidelines, and the firm offer is a single negotiation.

The cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upper reaches of activated carbon supports the demand, while the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: the active carbon traders are mainly active in shipment, the downstream just need to purchase, and the firm offer focuses on negotiation.