1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 13766.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 13200 yuan / ton, and the price fell within the week by 4.12%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic isopropanol prices fell this week. In June, the market price of raw acetone remained high, and the price of isopropanol remained high. In the international market, isopropanol in the U.S. continued to decline, while isopropanol in Europe ended to decline. The demand of overseas disinfectant market gradually sought for more substitutes, and the overseas orders decreased. As a result, the operating rate of isopropanol plants fell, and the price decreased. Up to now, about 12000-13300 yuan / ton of isopropanol negotiation area in Shandong Province and 12700-13500 yuan / ton of isopropanol negotiation area in Jiangsu Province in China. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 13400-13600 yuan / ton. Recently, export orders decreased, and isopropanol benefits slowed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the upstream market price of acetone is rising. After a short decline in East China this week, many terminals just need to be replenished. At present, the port arrival volume is still small, and the domestic factory supply is limited. The market negotiation pushed up 200 yuan / ton to 10500-10700 yuan / ton. For isopropanol, the cost pressure is large, and some manufacturers have stopped production and maintenance.

In terms of raw propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene in China was 6604.55 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 6875.55 yuan / ton. The price was increased by 4.1% in the week. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. The profit of propylene isopropanol is still very considerable. Due to the decrease of foreign trade orders, the price will be reduced accordingly.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: the price of raw acetone is high and the cost is under pressure. In terms of demand, the favorable foreign trade slowed down, export orders were significantly reduced, domestic trade enquiries were more frequent, wait-and-see was the main thing, and taking goods was very cautious. At present, isopropanol plant in acetone process is under pressure, and the manufacturers have been overhauling successively. The profit of isopropanol produced by propylene method is large, and the price can be lowered. On the whole, in the short term, the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to decline, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

On June 19, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.14% from 85.54, the lowest point on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

The data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in May shows a downward trend; compared with the market at the end of May, the market of polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) stopped falling and stabilized in the first and middle of June. On June 1, 2020, the market mainstream quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, and on June 19, the market mainstream quotation is about 14020 yuan / ton, with a correction rate of 0.14%, basically in a stable state.

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to callback to a certain extent. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half was about 8000 yuan / ton. From June to now, after several small rebounds, it is currently stable at about 8550 yuan / ton. Downstream demand: since 2020, polyacrylamide manufacturers have always reflected that business is difficult to do, cooperation projects of downstream construction enterprises have been reduced, and the survival of water treatment engineering enterprises is difficult. At present, the local situation of epidemic situation is again severe, and the manufacturers do not dare to expect better market.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory. The price of the main product specifications rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, and the basic stability is maintained: the price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 14000-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is reported Price: 9400-10000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 16 million solid particles: 9800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18 million solid particles: 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18-20 million powder: 12000-12500 yuan / ton, non-ionic: 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and some specifications: 300-400 yuan / ton. Restricted by the weak downstream demand and the huge sales pressure of manufacturers, the company said that there is not much profit at the current price.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile price. From June to now, the price of acrylonitrile has rebounded, but the range is relatively small. According to the introduction of the manufacturer, whether or not the raw materials are hoarded has different impact on the production cost. From the perspective of the whole industry, the poor demand is the fatal injury of the market.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business community shows that the price of the upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been slightly increased since June, while the downstream demand side has been stagnant, the enterprise has a large shipping pressure and a small profit margin. In the future, the impact of the epidemic on the market is a factor that the market is relatively worried about, and the industry is afraid of encountering an even worse situation. At present, the price may fluctuate slightly, but the market has not improved greatly.

In the past week, the domestic spandex market remained stable, with the average price of 40d specification as of June 18 being 31600 yuan / ton, down 4.24% year on year.

Mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 35000-36000 34000-35000 28500-29500

Shandong 36000-37000 34500-35500 29000-29500

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-31000

Jiangsu 35000-36000 34000-35000 29500-32000

At present, the supply of spandex factory is stable, and 80% of the industry starts to operate at a high level. The cost side support performance is average, the downstream terminal market just needs to be cautious in taking goods, and the overall market demand follow-up is average. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for mainstream negotiation of 20d spandex is 35000-36000 yuan / ton; the reference for mainstream negotiation of 30d spandex is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for mainstream negotiation of 40d spandex is 28500-29500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanxi sanwei 5 parking, no restart plan

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua No.6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang Meike 5 unit is not high

Low load of 4.6 unit in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang

In recent years, domestic PTMEG market trend is still weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly light. In terms of price, the main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods is 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the actual price is 13800-14500 yuan / ton. In terms of devices, there is no restart plan for Shanxi sanwei’s 50000 ton / a device. In addition, in the process of Henan energy chemical’s 60000 ton / a device shutdown, 50% of the overall industry starts to operate with caution. The pure MDI market is relatively stable, and the shippers keep the stable delivery. The market quotation is 14000-14500 yuan / ton by telegraphic transfer in barrels. The listing price of pure MDI of Wanhua chemical in June was 16500 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton compared with that in May. The downstream slowly digests raw materials, just needs to enter the market, and the supply support is acceptable. The shippers keep stable in the delivery, and about 40% of the construction starts, maintaining a low level.

In the lower reaches of Zhejiang Province, Xiaoshao region started to operate at a normal level, with 40-60% starting level in the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang region, the enterprise order follow-up was average, with about 60% starting level in the yarn wrapping market. Changshu’s downstream circular machine market starts at a low level, with an overall starting level of 30-40%; Fujian’s market starts generally, with lace at 30-40% and warp knitting at about 5-60%; Guangdong’s downstream orders follow up generally, with circular machine and warp knitting market starting at 5-70%. From the perspective of the terminal market, the order increment in the domestic market is not obvious, the situation in the foreign trade market is not clear, the demand follow-up is cautious, and the overall market maintains rigid procurement.

In terms of exports, textile and clothing exports improved in May on a month on month basis, among which textile exports were in good condition and clothing remained in a downturn for the time being. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, in May 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $29.554 billion, an increase of 38.36% month on month and 24.02% year on year. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 20.648 billion US dollars, up 77.34% year on year; the export value of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 8.905 billion US dollars, down 26.93% year on year.

Business analysts believe that the current spandex market maintains stable operation, manufacturers maintain normal start-up, coupled with early inventory backlog, the overall market supply is abundant. Although actively shipping, but the downstream terminal customer demand follow-up is not obvious, most of them are still sporadic small orders, just need to take the goods, the wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong. As the textile off-season atmosphere is gradually strong, and the supporting role of the superimposed cost end is not strong, it is expected that the spandex market will be light and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 18, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid (industrial grade) was 14666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month, with the maximum amplitude of 6.52% in the cycle, and the recent market was stable.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the market of salicylic acid was stable without any disturbance. In the second quarter, phenol at the end of raw materials kept rising, with a large fluctuation, while salicylic acid rose by a small margin of 2.33% only after May Day, and then the market remained stable. As the main demand end of salicylic acid is export, the recovery of foreign economy is slow, India extends the blockade time, and the export orders of salicylic acid are sharply reduced compared with the previous years, so although there is strong support on the cost end, the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the production enterprises are seeking stability in large quantities, and they wait and see the market. In June, the fluctuation of raw materials was not big, the salicylic acid was still stable, while the export was improved, but it did not meet the expectation. There were not many large orders. Some enterprises reduced the load production, and the inventory pressure was not big. With the order production, the demand was waiting for release.

As of June 18, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in Maoyuan, Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 24000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 22000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid is about 14000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 29000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 20000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Shandong Longxin pharmaceutical industry is about 15500 yuan / ton, the factory price of pharmaceutical grade is about 25300 yuan / ton, the factory price of sublimation grade is about 18300 yuan / ton, and the factory price of methyl salicylate is about 24300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, from the cost point of view, the overall upward trend of phenol is temporarily stopped. On June 17, East China market reported a narrow upward trend with an offer of 7400-7450 yuan / ton. At present, there is a small amount of volume in North China, but the overall supply pressure is not great, terminal inquiries are increasing, just need to be followed up, and the actual single transaction situation still needs attention. According to the business community, although phenol is still in a downward trend and acetone is temporarily high and stable, the overall cost of raw materials is still strong, but the terminal is not optimistic and the downstream just needs to be purchased.

3、 Future forecast

According to the salicylic acid analyst of the business agency, there are not many changes in the cost end in the near future. The rising trend is temporarily stopped, the delivery of salicylic acid is improved, some enterprises are operating at full load, and the sales pressure is reduced. It is expected that the market of salicylic acid will remain stable in the short term, and the future market needs to pay attention to the export situation.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose in June, maintaining stability and slowing down the growth of DOP market. As of June 18, the price of DOP in East China was 7233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.58% from 6983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of DOP rose slowly in June.

Cost factor

From the trend chart of raw material phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose in June and remained stable. DOP raw material prices rise, DOP costs rise, DOP has the power to rise, phthalic anhydride market maintains stability, DOP market rising power weakens.

From the trend chart of octanol price, we can see that the price of DOP raw material octanol rose sharply in June. DOP raw material prices rise, DOP costs rise, DOP rising momentum.

Industrial chain factors

From the price trend chart of PVC, we can see that the price of PVC rose in June and remained stable. The demand of DOP is mainly rigid demand, PVC market is stable, which is insufficient to support the rise of DOP.

Market overview and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and octanol of plasticizer DOP rose in June, which was good for DOP market and had a strong driving force. In the near future, the price of phthalic anhydride has been fluctuating and stable, the growth rate of raw material price has slowed down, the downstream PVC market has been stable, the demand for DOP is rigid and the support for DOP is insufficient. In June, the growth rate of the upstream and downstream market of DOP industrial chain slowed down, the impetus for DOP to rise was limited, and the price of DOP rose slightly. In the future, DOP still has the momentum to rise. DOP market is strong and stable, or slightly rising.

According to statistics, in 2020, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene dropped significantly. The average price at the beginning of the year was 6900 yuan / ton, the average price in June was 4100 yuan / ton, and the half year drop was 40.58%. From the price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest point of domestic PX price appeared at the beginning of the year, the highest price was 6900 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in May, and the lowest price was 4000 yuan / ton. In May, PX market price made history new low point.

Domestic PX products are petrochemical products with high external dependence. According to data statistics in 2019, PX external dependence is as high as 45%. External price is an important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene. In the first half of 2020, the external price trend of PX is as follows:

It can be seen from the trend chart of PX domestic price and external market price that the PX market price dropped sharply in the first half of 2020, almost showing a unilateral downward trend, with a drop of 40.58% in the first half of 2020, mainly due to the joint influence of domestic and international.

From the perspective of PX itself, in 2020, the domestic PX operation rate will be about 70%, Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical’s 600000 ton new unit will be put into operation, Yangzi Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, Fuhai Chuang’s unit will start a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, Yangzi Petrochemical’s PX unit will operate normally, Jinling Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, Qingdao Lidong’s unit will operate at full load, Qilu Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably, and Urumqi Petrochemical’s unit will operate stably About 50% of petrochemical plants in lumuqi have been started, Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, and domestic p-xylene supply is sufficient. However, due to the impact of domestic public health events in the first quarter of 2020, the domestic textile industry is almost closed, domestic enterprises have started relatively low, and the PX Market price keeps falling. In the later period, domestic production resumed gradually, but Europe and the United States were affected, domestic exports were hit, and PX products still fell sharply. It can be clearly seen from the trend chart of the external price that the external price has declined sharply, and the closing price in Asia has declined from 840 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to about 500 US dollars / ton in June. The sharp decline of the external price is a huge negative impact on the domestic xylene market.

The price of upstream raw crude oil and mixed xylene is also the influencing factor of domestic market price trend of p-xylene. According to the inspection of business agency, the price trend of crude oil market in the first half of 2020 dropped sharply, the price of crude oil at the beginning of the year was 61.68 USD / barrel, the price of crude oil as of June 17 was 38.38 USD / barrel, and the decline in the first half of 2020 was 37.78%. The price of crude oil dropped sharply for PX market The formation of a larger negative. At the same time, the price of upstream mixed xylene also fell sharply. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of mixed xylene fell by as much as 33.39% in the first half of the year. The upstream raw materials fell sharply, leaving the domestic market of p-xylene empty, and the domestic price fell sharply.

97% of PX in China is used for PTA production. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2020, it is obvious that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite similar. The market price of PX and PTA in China has declined. However, with the impact of the collapse of international crude oil price, the market price of PX and PTA has declined significantly. In the first half of 2020, the market of textile industry is in a weak state. Domestic textile enterprises are greatly impacted. The domestic textile industry demand is poor, and the domestic PX market price is greatly affected.

There are two production processes for PX, one is naphtha as the main raw material, the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, the market of producing PX with naphtha as raw material is acceptable, but the production of PX with MX as raw material is in a loss stage. The profit trend of production and supply from MX is as follows:

As can be seen clearly from the figure, mx-px production process will almost lose 50 US dollars / ton in 2020, and the negative profit will become the new normal in 2020. The domestic market of p-xylene will not improve, and the market price of PX will drop sharply in 2020.

In the future, the price of crude oil has increased recently, but the economy of Europe and the United States is still limited to some extent. In addition, with the end of the sales peak season of the textile industry, Chen Ling, an analyst of PX business agency, believes that with the gradual increase of PX self-sufficiency rate, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced, and the domestic supply and demand will be improved. However, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus, and PX export countries such as Japan and South Korea are under great pressure It is very likely that the profit will be sold to China and the price will be compared with domestic enterprises. However, PX production loss will remain high. Therefore, PX will remain weak in the second half of 2020. PX’s low profit and even loss will become the norm. It is difficult for the domestic market price of p-xylene to rise sharply.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 17, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the previous day, down 34.49% year on year. In the futures market, main futures (2009) rose slightly to close at 3712, up 32% or 0.87% from the previous trading day.

Crude oil market price rose. On June 16, the settlement price of WTI crude oil main contract in the United States was $38.38/barrel, up $1.26, while Brent crude oil main contract was $40.96, up $1.24. Positive factors such as higher US stocks and record month on month rise in US retail data in may reflect more signs of recovery in the US economy, and a good expectation of OPEC + production reduction. With PX’s help, the closing price of Asia on the 16th was 527 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 547 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 27 US dollars / ton from the previous day. The price of PX in China is maintained at 4100 yuan / ton. In terms of plant, the 650000 ton / year PX plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance on June 19 and is expected to last until July 5.

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined

220 stop at night on May 19 and restart in late June

Shanghai Petrochemical entered into maintenance on May 18, and planned to restart on June 19

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Fuhaichuang 450 takes off and lands negative alkali washing on June 8, and plans to resume

In terms of PTA plant, the current operating rate is maintained at 87%, and the 3 × 650000t / a PTA plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Company is in normal operation, and the maintenance is planned at the end of June. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton PTA plant load is increased, Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical’s 400000 ton plant is planned to be restarted on June 19, later, Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton plant is planned to be restarted in late June, Pengwei Petrochemical’s PTA plant is planned to be restarted in July, and the supply side will be pressurized. In addition, the domestic social inventory reached around 3.55 million tons, close to 90000 tons compared with that at the end of May, but it is still at a high level. In addition, Hengli 5 × unit is expected to be put into operation in late June, and the short-term PTA accumulation situation is hard to change.

In the downstream polyester market, the 8th PET production unit of Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation on June 12, with an increase in PTA demand. The current starting load is around 86%. At present, various varieties of polyester are still differentiated. In addition to staple fiber and bottle chips, the market of main products filament is still poor. After two short-term production and sales peaks since May, polyester market once again enters the situation of accumulation. At the same time, as the textile and clothing consumption off-season in June, the end inventory has not been effectively digested, and the purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. Compared with the same period of last year, with the characteristics of off-season becoming more and more obvious, polyester load continues to rise under greater pressure, and there is a possibility of lowering in July. The price is stable, among which the price of polyester 150D / 48F from mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 5700-5900 yuan / ton. In addition, the weaving load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable at 63.40%, but it is still at a low level year on year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that in the short term, crude oil rebound and PX rise are good for PTA market mentality. However, due to the fall of oil price in the early stage, which benefits PTA production link, PTA processing fee keeps rising from March to April, and the recent increase of PX is far weaker than that of the upstream market, so that PTA production profit remains at a good level of 700-800 yuan / ton. The early maintenance device will speed up the resumption of production, which makes it possible for the factory with maintenance plan to postpone, further increasing PTA supply pressure. At the same time, facing the traditional off-season of summer textile, the demand for external orders is still variable, the terminal demand is uncertain, the purchase intention of downstream manufacturers is not high, the market continues to be weak, and the overall transaction atmosphere remains light, which is not conducive to the digestion of PTA inventory. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA continues to rebound the lack of power, the later callback probability is larger.

On June 15, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 95.95, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 11.98% lower than the highest point of 109.01 on August 28, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

The data shows that polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) in North China shows an overall fluctuating downward trend from April to June 2020. On April 1, the mainstream price was about 1912 yuan / ton, and on June 15, the mainstream price was about 1775 yuan / ton, with a downward range of 7.19%. Poor downstream demand is the key factor leading to the decline. Among them, the price fluctuation range is roughly: industrial level, liquid and alumina content 10%-12% including tax 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860 yuan / ton; content 24% quoted price 1100-1200 yuan / ton; content 26% price 1280-1400 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1580-2000 yuan / ton; spray type content is more than 30% 30% quotations 1600-1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content more than 28% 28% quoted price Yuan / ton, food grade quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

According to the survey of the business club, in the upstream products of PAC, the price change of hydrochloric acid has a great impact on PAC, and the stock of calcium powder and bauxite manufacturers has a certain impact on the ex factory price of their products. Secondly, because natural gas is used for drying in the process, the price change of natural gas has a certain impact. In June, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated slightly, first rising slightly and then falling slightly. The fluctuation range was about 5 yuan / ton. On June 1, 333 yuan / ton, and on June 15, 330 yuan / ton was quoted. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally weak in support of hydrochloric acid, while the downstream white carbon black market is gradually falling, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid, while the downstream ammonium chloride market is high in consolidation, which has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. In the first half of the month, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seemed to rise slightly at the beginning of the month, and fell slightly in the middle of the month, with a very small range. It is still a big problem that it is difficult to ship in the first half of the month. Downstream: according to the manufacturer, in this year’s special situation, the market is weak, and the demand for several consecutive months is weak, which makes the manufacturer adjust the price successively to reduce the inventory. Although there are some water treatment projects in demand in the near future, they are certainly not as good as the previous years, especially the current situation of Beijing epidemic is again severe, and the manufacturer has little expectation for the market change.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area have stopped production and delayed to return to work; after February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area have resumed production in succession; in March, the logistics has gradually recovered, and the transportation cost has returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, due to the difficulty of delivery, some enterprises still have high inventory, and the production is affected; in May, polyaluminium chloride The overall demand hasn’t recovered, the market situation is poor, the delivery is general, and the transaction continues to be weak; in June, it’s more than half, the raw materials have not changed much, the natural gas used for drying rebounded about 1 percentage point from the bottom this month, which has little impact on the market, the downstream demand is still general, and the situation of the industry has not changed much.

As for the future market, according to the analysis of the business agency, the price of the upstream raw materials hydrochloric acid, bauxite and calcium powder in June has not changed much, and the price of the process fuel natural gas has changed slightly in the past half of the month, the key is that the downstream demand of PAC has not changed much; in the situation of little change in the upstream and downstream situation, the market of PAC is difficult to change greatly, and the future market is expected to maintain stability We need to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic on the local demand.

Data shows that on June 14, the average price of acetone market in East China was 11900 yuan / ton, and on June 17, the price of acetone market in East China fell to 10700 yuan / ton, which was greatly reduced due to the reduction of purchase volume in market demand, 10.1%; from the perspective of the national market, in the surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong, the supply side is tight, the market supply is scarce, and the offer of the commodity holder is relatively firm, and the negotiation range is 11900-12300 yuan / ton, but the market transaction is rare. From the perspective of domestic factories, due to the market supply is still tight, the quoted price of factories is relatively stable and the overall adjustment is not large.

First of all, the acetone market fell sharply, mainly affected by the decline in terminal operating rate, and some terminal factories shut down in the whole industry. The downstream of acetone mainly includes isopropanol, MMA, MIBK, bisphenol A and other products. After more than two months’ sharp rise in acetone market, the market is at a high level with a rare history. The shutdown enterprises in the downstream industry have increased in succession. For example, MIBK industry has been completely annihilated in the middle of last month and all factories have been shut down. Other products follow the rise of acetone market, but the start-up is also gradually declining. The only reason is that the operating rate of isopropanol plant has been kept high due to the influence of overseas demand on disinfectant Market. After entering the high price of isopropanol in mid June, the demand of overseas disinfectant Market is also gradually looking for more substitutes, such as ethanol and n-propanol. Overseas orders decreased, and the operating rate of isopropanol plant fell. Today, the acetone market fell sharply.

Secondly, the raw material market fell and the cost side fell. In terms of pure benzene as the main raw material, the market focus in Shandong Province is weak, the price of refined benzene in the refining industry is still lower, and the price difference between the refining industry and Sinopec is narrowed. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province was 3750 yuan / ton on June 14, and 3670 yuan / ton on June 17, down 2.13%, and 3430-3700 yuan / ton on June 17. Propylene, another raw material, rose in a narrow range. The offer of propylene in Shandong Province rose from 6531 to 6777 yuan / ton, up 3.76%, but the production of phenol ketone is less propylene, which has far less impact than pure benzene.

Thirdly, the phenol ketone industry chain as a whole is mainly downward, and there are many negative positions in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, only one kind of commodity rose in the price rise and fall list of phenolic ketone industry from June 15 to 17, 2020, and its commodity is propylene. There were 5 falling commodities in total. The main commodities falling on the 17th were isopropanol (- 2.94%), acetone (- 2.16%) and bisphenol A (- 0.81%). The average rise and fall was – 0.59%, and the phenol ketone industry chain rose and fell negative for three consecutive days.

According to the business association, the acetone market has been affected by the overhaul year and supported by the disinfection market demand. On the whole, it has been at a high level. This week, although the market has declined, it is still at a high level throughout history. After the sharp rise, there will be a big drop. Although the current supply side is tight, the downstream construction situation is not optimistic. The isopropanol factory is also reducing the operating rate. The high isopropanol in the overseas market is unsalable. The business agency predicted that the acetone market would continue to decline. This week, the mainstream market is expected to fall below 10000 yuan. However, the factories and imports are still tense. The high price suppliers still maintain a high price. The market is at a high level in the short term, and the weak market in the medium term is steadily falling.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on June 1 was 1856 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on June 15 was 1863 yuan / ton, up 0.36%..

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on June 1 was 2156 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on June 15 was 2145 yuan / ton, with the price down 0.53%..

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium: the market price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly in the first half of June. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 1950 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium phosphate: in the first half of June, the market trend of diammonium phosphate fell slightly. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2150-2250 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton. 64% of mainstream diammonium in Gansu Province is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium at the first station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2400 yuan / ton.

Upstream: in June, the overall market of China’s phosphorus ore market is weak, and the weak market in many regions mainly maintains stable operation. With the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the demand is not smooth. At present, most of the mines mainly supply contract customers. At present, the domestic sulfur inventory is low, the supply is reduced, and the market quotation is stable and rising. On June 15, the reference price of sulfur was 620.00, up 17.72% from June 1 (526.67)

Downstream: the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises follow up slowly, and pay more for raw materials as required, the overall market is cold. The trading volume of compound fertilizer market is limited, and some areas sell at low prices.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 23rd week of 2020 (6.8-6.12), there are 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities, and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities falling were phosphoric acid (- 3.57%) and yellow phosphorus (- 1.68%). This week’s average was – 1.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the raw material market of ammonium phosphate rose in the first half of June, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is still weak. The pre-sale order of monoammonium phosphate is large and the price slightly rises. It is expected that the trend of monoammonium phosphate will be stable in the later stage. The domestic demand for DAP is poor and the domestic operation rate is reduced. It is expected that the market of DAP will be stable in the later stage.