In June, the phenol Market, supported by various favorable factors, soared rapidly. Taking the offer of the market in East China as an example, the market rose from 6750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8100 yuan / ton on the 9th, with an increase of 20% on the 9th.

First, the supply side was tight, and the operating rate of domestic phenol and ketone enterprises fell to 70%. At that time, under the maintenance of factories in North China, the supply volume was reduced. According to the plan, the supply side in North China was tight. In addition, the inventory of Jiangyin port was low, and the inventory of Hengyang and West China was less than 20000 tons. The attitude of the cargo supplier was very clear, and the low price was not available, which pushed up continuously for several days. Second, affected by the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, for example, acetone, a joint product of phenol, has increased by up to 200% as of the first ten days of June, setting a historical record, which has driven the products in the upstream and downstream industrial chains to rise sharply. Third, the cost surface support effectively overlaps the continuous rise of main downstream terminals. In the first ten days of June, the upstream of phenol rose as a whole, with pure benzene up 2.22% and propylene up 3.16%. On the downstream demand side, the main terminal bisphenol a market was quoted at 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, 12450 yuan / ton on June 9. After the May Day holiday, the bisphenol a market rose 41.48% in total, and 11017 yuan / ton on June 1. In the first ten days of June, it continued to rise, up 13% in nine days.

Up and down of phenol upstream and downstream on June 1-9

After the middle of June, the phenol quickly recovered after the rapid increase. The reason is that most factories in the downstream are weak as a whole, which obviously contradicts the high price. The low price tray holders often make profits and ship goods frequently, and the market quickly declines. Although the limited supply of factories and the general supply of imported goods are common, and the market supply pressure is not great, it is not easy to explore the rise again after the fall of phenol Market, mainly because the overall downturn of downstream terminals makes it difficult to significantly improve demand, the market trading is cold, and offers are few, and the phenol Market is in a dilemma under the market situation of weak supply and demand.

In late June, phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. The operation rate of phenol plants in China has been reduced again in a narrow range, with the overall operation rate of 60-70%. Among them, Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continue to park, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operation rate has been reduced in a narrow range of about 6-70%. It is expected that the short-term shutdown and maintenance will be carried out in the early next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume the restart last week. In terms of ports, there was a small amount of replenishment in late June. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi replenished more than 2000 tons. The port inventory was relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side was under little pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, in the psychological state of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of the intermediate traders is not high, and the situation of the terminal factory is not optimistic. The factory purchases more on demand, with a small amount of inventory, and many mainstream end users are hard to say good because of the downward industrial chain, constantly reducing the operating rate, only selling the enterprise’s inventory. In the middle and late June, the demand in the downstream is poor Next, the market keeps falling.

From the perspective of the business community, near the end of the month, the expected amount of factory maintenance increases, the operating rate is at a low state, the supply of port goods is generally replenished, and the pressure of port storage is not great, so the supply side is relatively reasonable. However, the demand side is sluggish and hard to change. There are few replenishments in the market before the festival, and few market transactions. The market may continue to maintain this trend at the end of the month after the festival. There is not much supply in the hands of the goods holders, and there is little room for the market to go down again. However, in the case of sluggish demand for the terminals and no intentional participation of the intermediate traders, the market cannot be improved. The business community expects that the supply side will not be good and the demand side will not be good The overall downturn, in the situation of two weak supply, phenol short-term ups and downs dilemma, the market price of phenol in East China may be 7000 yuan / ton, the national market offer space is 7000-7300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in June was positive, and the spot price of most brands rose. As of June 22, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 12233.33 yuan / ton, up 5.76% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The price of caprolactam upstream of PA6 rose sharply in May due to less supply, and continued to rise in June due to tight supply. According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of caprolactam on June 1 was 9916 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price on June 22 was 10466.67 yuan / ton. At present, the price is 5.55% higher than that at the beginning of the month. In addition, crude oil and outer plate have strong support for pure benzene, and the price difference between the inner and outer plate has narrowed, and the market bottom has strengthened. It is expected that caprolactam market will continue to push up in the future.

PA6 market by the upstream caprolactam strong support and continued to rise, the current high price operation. In the third week of June, the performance was average, the offer of merchants was deadlocked, and the delivery situation declined. At present, the domestic operation rate is acceptable. Although the increasing demand for overseas plasticizing consumption is good for domestic enterprises to destock, the order follow-up of downstream factories is slow in the near future, and the reaction to high price goods is general, mainly on the cheap. Even on the 22nd, the nearby merchants’ offer was loose, and the trading situation was normal.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the third week of June, the domestic PA6 market price is relatively high, and the spot prices of different brands are generally stable. Upstream caprolactam inventory is low, supply is still tight, strong support for PA6 cost end. The demand of downstream slicers weakened, and the bargain hunting strategy was dominant. PA6 trading volume declined, and some businesses began to yield profits. PA6 market is expected to remain weak in the near future due to weaker demand.

According to statistics of business agency, as of June 23, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 16000 yuan / ton, up 133 yuan / ton, up 0.88%, down 10.61% year-on-year; POY of nylon was 13600 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.59%, down 11.69% year-on-year; FDY of nylon was 16750 yuan / ton, stable, down 16.67% year-on-year.

As of June 22, WTI crude oil was up 12.23% from the beginning of June. In terms of crude oil, crude oil continued to rise against the background that OPEC + decided to extend the production reduction agreement to the end of July. However, due to concerns about the epidemic and negative production reduction in some countries, crude oil failed to stabilize at $40, falling to around $36 / barrel at one time in the middle of the month. According to the latest forecast issued by Bank of America, the price of WTI crude oil will rise to 39.7 USD / barrel from 32 USD / barrel in 2020. Crude oil stopped falling and rose in shock.

 
Crude oil market support is acceptable, and cyclohexanone quotation is basically stable, with some slightly reduced. In June, there was a short-term increase in chemical fiber orders. The supply and demand of cyclohexanone plants were relatively balanced, and a large number of downstream purchases led to the increase of cyclohexanone prices. Although caprolactam due to tight spot supply, prices rose sharply. However, for the cyclohexanone market, the trading volume decreased, the increase was less than that of caprolactam, and the market was passive. Recently, there was a price drop to promote the trading volume.

The inventory of upstream caprolactam is low in the early stage, which strongly supports the cost end of PA6, but the downstream orders are slowly digested and the purchase of raw materials is slowed down. Due to the firm price of raw materials, the price of nylon manufacturers has been tested again. The price of nylon POY (86d / 24F) is 13000-14000 yuan / ton, the price range of nylon FDY (40d / 12F) is 16400-17000 yuan / ton, and that of nylon DTY (70D / 24F) is 15500-16800 yuan / ton. In the past two weeks, the external quotation has been basically stable. Some of the price adjustment strategies of the manufacturers have been put in place in one step, and some of them have been running on thin water for a long time.

Business analysts believe that caprolactam and PA6 rose after maintaining high performance. Generally, the market price of nylon is determined by the cost end. With the gradual recovery of caprolactam supply, the raw material end also shows signs of loosening. It is expected that the nylon filament will slightly fall back in July.

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of June 23, the average price of the market quotation of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream areas of the data monitoring was around 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with that of June 19, the price dropped 300 yuan / ton, or 1.71% of the increase. Compared with that of June 1, the average price rose 1667 yuan / ton, or 10.73% of the increase. During the period, the maximum amplitude of organosilicon DMC was 12.66%.

Since June, China’s Silicone Market has been on a good way, with a maximum increase of 12.66%

In the first week of June, the inventory pressure of most monomer plants is relatively small, the enterprises mainly focus on contract orders, and the quotation is firm. The mentality of buying up and not buying down in the downstream appears to need to improve, and the market focus of silicone DMC is steadily rising. On June 5, the average ex factory reference price of organosilicon DMC was 16166 yuan / ton, up 630 yuan / ton in the week, up 4.08%.

In the second week, the market of organosilicon DMC continued to rise, and many factories began to reduce the negative and pull up the market. Some monomer factories converted organosilicon DMC to self use, and the available supply continued to decrease, and the factory’s offer continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on June 12, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC has increased to 17033 yuan / ton, 430 yuan / ton in a week, or 4.50%. Compared with June 1, it rose 1500 yuan / ton, up 9.66% in two weeks.

In the third week, the rise of organosilicon DMC slowed down, up 1.55% in the week. At the beginning of the week (15th), the market as a whole was stable and strong, and the spot supply was still tight. On 18th, some factories continued to increase the factory quotation of organosilicon DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. By the end of 19 days, the factory price of organosilicon DMC was 17500 yuan / ton.

At present, more than 20 days after the continuous increase of organosilicon DMC, the market was mixed with ups and downs on the 22nd and 23rd, and the quotation of organosilicon DMC of some factories was lowered by 200-400 yuan / ton, until the low-end quotation of organosilicon fell to 16800 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of market situation led to the aggravation of downstream wait-and-see mood. It was heard that the actual transaction price of some factories had been loosened on Friday. However, at present, the inventory of organosilicon DMC is still low, and the pressure on supply is not great. Therefore, most of the manufacturers’ quotations are still firm. The quotations of a small number of manufacturers continue to increase by 200 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotations reach 18000 yuan / ton. At present, the main factory price reference of organosilicon DMC is around 17000-17800 yuan / ton. According to some organosilicon DMC data monitored by the business agency, on the 23rd, the factory price reference of organosilicon DMC is 17200 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than that on the 19th of last weekend, down 1.71%; compared with that on the 1st of June, the average price is 1667 yuan / ton higher, up 10.73%, during which the maximum amplitude of organosilicon DMC is 12 .66%。

It is understood that the following are the factory prices of major enterprises in the near future and the commencement of the plant (for reference only)

Name of enterprise: total production capacity, price and operation of silicone

Elkem spark organic silicon 400000t / a 17800 yuan / T unit starts 80%

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 340000 tons / year, 16800 yuan / ton, normal operation

Zhejiang Hesheng 150000 T / a 17500 yuan / t normal operation

Shandong Jinling 150000 T / a 17500 yuan / T plant shutdown maintenance

Stable operation of 80000 T / a 17000 yuan / T unit in Luxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd

Hubei Xingfa 320000 tons / year 17500 yuan / ton three sets of fully opened

Inner Mongolia Hengye cheng240000 yuan / ton 17700 yuan / ton restart

Upstream, in June, affected by the wet season, the supply of silicon metal increased, and the price of silicon metal 441 in this month was greatly affected by the supply and demand. After the increase in supply, downstream demand failed to move up synchronously, and the price of silicon metal fell this month.

At the supply end, as the southwest region gradually enters the wet season, silicon enterprises open more furnaces. In the direction of Yunnan, the starting load of Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants increases; in the direction of Sichuan, the enthusiasm of silicon plants to open furnaces increases greatly; in the direction of Xinjiang, the production problems caused by the shortage of silica and the factors of power supply equipment are basically solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

The operating rate of silicon enterprises has increased, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the supply of metal silicon has increased. However, the demand of downstream consumers has not increased at the same time, and the overall bargaining power of silicon enterprises has shifted down.

On the one hand, the export market is still weak in June, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; on the other hand, the downstream demand in the domestic market is relatively picking up, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the expectation of raw materials is short, the raw materials procurement is more cautious, mainly on demand, and the raw materials inventory is low.

So far, as of June 22, the price range of metal silicon in Tianjin port area is 10700-10800 yuan / ton; that in Shanghai area is 11000-11200 yuan / ton; that in Fujian area is 10100-10300 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan area is 10300-10400 yuan / ton; that in Huangpu port area is 10600-10700 yuan / ton; that in Kunming area is 10100-10300 yuan / ton 41 the price range of silicon metal is 10200-10400 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, on June 22, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441 × 3) was 10588 yuan / ton, down 462 yuan / ton, or 4.45%, compared with 11050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On the whole, at present, the market of organosilicon DMC is fluctuating and the wait-and-see is increasing. However, most of the manufacturers’ offers are still firm. In addition, the inventory is still low under the improvement of demand, and the supply pressure of the manufacturers is relatively small. Therefore, it is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will remain high in the short term. During this period, it is not excluded that some factories with lower prices will raise the quotation of organosilicon DMC again, so as to drive the market The market is up again. Of course, due to the current increase in market demand, it is expected that the start-up of single plant units will increase in succession. With the increase in supply, if the demand fails to improve in time, the price of organosilicon DMC may be reduced. The future market trend is closely related to the supply and demand relationship.

In June, the acetone market soared rapidly, and then the trading volume of few markets fell sharply. At present, the price in East China fell below 10000 yuan.

Acetone market trend in East China in June

In June, the acetone market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national market average price was 8850 yuan / ton in June 1, 12250 yuan / ton in June 10, with an overall increase of 38.14%. As of June 23, the national market price was 10225 yuan / ton, down 16.36% from the middle of the year. Today, the mainstream factories have not dropped 600-1300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream East China region has reported It fell below 10000 yuan for the first time since the downturn. The offers of domestic mainstream factories and regions on the main nodes are shown in the table below. Up to now, the supply and demand averages are negative, and the market may continue to decline. Specifically:

Average price trend of acetone in the national market in June

Quotation of mainstream factories and market in June

First, the import supply increased significantly in the last ten days, and Panasonic acetone could not resist the downward trend. It is understood that since June 10, acetone has been replenished in large quantities to Hong Kong, which are nearly 2000 tons replenished from Taiwan on June 10, 5800 tons replenished from West China on June 14-15, 4000 tons replenished from West China on June 19. It is estimated that 6000 tons of imported acetone will be replenished in East China during the Dragon Boat Festival, and 2000-3000 tons of imported acetone will still be replenished at the end of the month. Therefore, the import of acetone to Hong Kong will increase significantly in the late ten days 。

In terms of domestic plants, in May, Zhongsha Tianjin and Changshu Changchun units were shut down, and the overall operating rate was not adjusted much in June. Some plants were suspended for one week for maintenance, and then resumed production, so the supply of domestic plants was relatively stable. To sum up, in June, the acetone market showed a roller coaster market, and the supply side saw that the import source had a greater impact on it.

Second, the demand side market reported a significant decline or a weak trend to stabilize, and the operating rate of the mainstream terminal factories fell sharply. If all the downstream MIBK plants continue to shut down, the offer price in MIBK market is high and strong, but the transaction in the late market is obviously insufficient. The current offer price in East China is 15000-15800 yuan / ton, which is not optimistic after the cost collapse. MMA’s market trend follows acetone’s trend. After entering the middle of June, the market tends to be stable and then its focus falls. The atmosphere of on-site negotiation is obviously insufficient.

Isopropanol, the most important terminal of the epidemic, is unsalable in the overseas market. The high price has been replaced by other alcohol killing products one after another. The price has declined significantly, and the operating rate of some factories has been reduced due to the reduction of orders in the last ten days.

The downstream BPA market, supported by the cost in the first ten days, was constantly pushed up by the offer, but after the middle of the year, it entered into the state of no market with price, then many profit traders sold at low price, and the actual transaction price of the market continued to be explored. Up to now, the negotiation range of the BPA market in East China is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, with a significant drop compared with that in the middle of the year when it rose to 12800 yuan / ton.

In the view of the business community, the acetone market is supported by the demand of the disinfection market. The price has set a historical record. After the sharp rise, there will be a big drop. The current supply is significantly improved, and the terminal disinfectant Market is not irreplaceable. The high disinfectant is bound to have substitutes. The export orders in the late ten days are obviously reduced, and the market selling phenomenon is increasing. However, the disinfectant Market is still just in demand, and the price is back to normal There is still a market after sex. Under the game of supply and demand, the demand for raw materials is also gradually stable. The business community expects that the acetone market will continue to decline, and the trading volume will increase significantly before the festival. At present, the mainstream market has fallen below 10000 yuan, and the short-term negotiation range in East China is 9600-9900 yuan / ton.

At 9:00 a.m. on June 22, 2020, low sulfur fuel oil futures were officially listed and traded in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy), a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy). According to the business club, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 opened at 2570 yuan / ton on the first day of trading and closed at 2599 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2763 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2570 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the market, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 closed higher on the first day of trading, hitting higher and falling back. Daily increase of 24859 positions.

Listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts in line with market demand

As a kind of product oil, fuel oil is a heavy residual product separated from crude oil after gasoline, kerosene and diesel in the process of petroleum processing. The fuel oil is mainly made of the cracking residual oil and straight run residual oil. It is characterized by high viscosity and contains many non hydrocarbon compounds, resins and asphaltenes. Fuel oil is mainly used in oil refining and chemical industry, transportation, construction industry, metallurgy and other industries. At present, boiler oil consumption and power generation oil consumption have been greatly reduced, while the market demand for marine oil has been growing steadily.

According to the decision of the international maritime organization, since January 1, 2020, the sulfur content of marine fuel in the world has decreased from no more than 3.5% to no more than 0.5%. The demand for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually shrunk, and the consumption of low sulfur fuel oil has rapidly increased. However, the international market has not yet formed a pricing benchmark for low sulfur fuel oil. In the past, Singapore’s regular high sulfur fuel oil was still used to price fuel oil, but the liquidity of the spot market for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually decreased, and the fuel oil market urgently needs low sulfur standard.

As a major fuel oil consumption country, China’s fuel oil consumption reached 28.37 million tons in 2019, up 15.5% year on year. In addition, since this year, the domestic demand for low sulfur bonded marine oil has rapidly increased to more than 70%, and the demand for high sulfur marine oil has shrunk to 18%. With the implementation of the fuel oil export tax rebate policy and the issuance of the first 10 million tons of fuel oil export quota, the original traditional mode of “overseas import, domestic bonded sales” will be broken. China may become the world’s largest producer of low sulfur fuel oil. Therefore, the listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts meets the market demand.

Short term low sulfur fuel price is difficult to rise

From the perspective of futures contract trading participation, high sulfur fuel oil still occupies a place in the domestic fuel oil market, which can be seen from the positions of two fuel oil. According to the business association, as of the end of the draft, the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the previous period were 533324 in 2009, while the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the international energy exchange 2101 were 24859. However, due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for marine fuel oil, the demand for high sulfur fuel oil will further shrink in the later period, and the demand for low sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise.

Although the demand for low sulfur fuel oil is increasing due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for ship fuel oil, on the one hand, the crude oil price is still at a mid low level near $40 / barrel, and the later trend of crude oil is uncertain due to geopolitical and demand changes; on the other hand, there are worries about the second outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, which casts a shadow on the future market of low sulfur fuel oil; and the spot price of low sulfur fuel oil has become large in the near future The trend is going higher. From the perspective of market mentality, it is possible to go higher and fall back later. According to the monitoring of business agency, the spot market of low sulfur bonded fuel oil in China started to rise all the way from mid May, with the price rising from 219 US dollars / ton on May 18 to 299 US dollars / ton on June 22, up 36.23%. On the whole, it is difficult for the price of low sulfur fuel to rise sharply in the near future.

As of June 22, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13983.33 yuan / ton, up 3.66% compared with the average market price of 13490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

Last week, Chinalco’s foreign quotations in various regions have exceeded 14000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the rise in spot price to futures has begun to narrow.

Reduction of aluminum ingot spot supply

Some domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not fully recovered since the reduction of production since late March, and some other enterprises have increased the supply of aluminum water, reducing the spot supply of aluminum ingots.

Poor export

In May 2020, China exported 382900 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%..

Future forecast

At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have been effectively improved, social inventory has continued to move down, the current price has risen, partially easing the pressure of domestic high-cost aluminum ingot manufacturers, the domestic demand is expected to turn warm in the second quarter, and in the later period, it is likely to maintain stability and strong operation. Business analysts predict that in June, it will be mainly in the first-line shock operation of 14000 yuan / ton.

Later focus:

Real estate completion cycle and policy support for wire and cable industry

1、 Trend analysis

On June 22, nickel price fell slightly, spot nickel price was 102750 yuan / ton, down 0.47% compared with 103233.33 yuan / ton of the previous trading day, down 9.66% compared with the beginning of the year, up 3.67% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 104190 yuan, followed by downward price pressure, closing at 101860 yuan, down 2.25%. LME3 nickel closed 0.39% lower at $12680 at the end of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Fitch, a research institution, said that demand for nickel ore and metal nickel is expected to be affected by the epidemic this year, but global nickel ore production is expected to shrink by nearly 20% this year. Nickel prices rose at the beginning of the week due to supply shortage. Then, the latest data from the world Bureau of metal statistics showed that the apparent demand of the global nickel market in the first four months of this year fell by 31400 tons year on year, during which the global nickel market oversupplied 14400 tons, Upward pressure on nickel price. In addition, the low consumption of domestic new energy vehicles has reduced the demand for nickel since this year, and the transaction volume in the downstream market has declined.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: weak supply and demand, coupled with the off-season demand in June, nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term.

On June 22, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous day, down 38.30% year on year. PTA main futures (2009) also declined to close at 3710, down 16% or 0.43% from the previous trading day.

The raw material market is good for PTA market mentality. On June 19, crude oil market fluctuated and climbed. The settlement price of main contracts of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $39.75/barrel, up $0.91 compared with the previous trading day. The settlement price of main contracts of Brent crude oil futures was $42.19, up $0.68. PX was boosted by this, closing at $557 / T FOB South Korea and $577 / T CFR China in Asia, up $22 / T from the previous day.

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined

220 stop at night on May 19, start heating and restart on June 18, but no material has been discharged so far

Shanghai Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 18, and was restarted on the afternoon of June 19, but it has not been discharged so far

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 shut down for maintenance on April 17 and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Fuhaichuang 450 took off and landed negative alkali washing on June 8, and the load increased on June 12

However, the current PTA social inventory is close to 4 million tons, which is still at a high level. In terms of plant, with the 2.2 million ton plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. starting to heat up and restart on the 18th, the 400000 ton plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was re fed on the 21st. Meanwhile, the new 2.5 million ton plant of Hengli at the end of the month is expected to be put into operation, and PTA market supply will increase periodically, which is not conducive to inventory digestion. In addition, PTA processing fee is still close to 700 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer is still in a good profit state, which does not exclude the possibility of postponement of factory maintenance plan.

The production and marketing of downstream polyester market is flat, and the current operating rate is close to 85%. On June 20, Shenghong 250000 tons of polyester was put into production for discharging, Yisheng Hainan 500000 tons of qualified products new device load was close to 50%, and Anhui Jinzhai new fiber 120000 tons of staple fiber plan was restarted. With the discharging and restarting, the operating rate will be improved to some extent. However, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile and weaving market has gradually deepened, and it is even more difficult when it is in the off-season of a special year. Most of the weaving enterprises have started to significantly reduce the start-up rate, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has again slightly dropped to below 63%. In terms of price, the market of various products in polyester filament market showed a slight downward trend, of which the decline of polyester FDY on the 22nd day was 1.69%, and the quotation of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6150-6450 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that crude oil is still in the period of production reduction, and PX has a strong trend in the near future, which is supported by PTA driven by cost. However, in the near future, the restart of its own devices and the production of new capacity are expected to be bad for the market. At the same time, at the end of textile consumption level, domestic demand is reduced, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in export sales. In the future, there is a lack of further improvement power. It is expected that PTA prices will weaken and be more likely to be adjusted.

On June 19, crude benzene commodity index was 45.26, down 2.19 points from yesterday, 65.67% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 48.20% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

From June 15 to 19, 2020, the weekly crude benzene Market in Japan recovered. The factory price in North China was 3101.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.82% on a weekly basis.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

Price adjustment amount after date increase unit: yuan / ton

June 5 3600 + 100 yuan / ton

June 10 3700 + 100 yuan / ton

June 15, 3600-100 yuan / ton

June 19, 3550-50 yuan / ton

This week, the price of crude benzene in China was basically adjusted back to the level at the beginning of the month. This week, Sinopec North China lowered the price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative reduction of 150 yuan / ton. Now, the price is 3550 yuan / ton. The external market of pure benzene also continued to decline this week, which affected the overall mentality of crude benzene market. In addition, after the price of crude benzene was increased on November 11, the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased, and the crude resistance to high prices was heavy, the market mentality was poor, the bearish atmosphere was strong, and the receiving situation was not good. Crude benzene fundamentals bear pressure. On Thursday, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong Province was 2885 yuan / ton, 215 yuan / ton lower than last week.

This week’s coking enterprises started work better than last week. The crude benzene supply is relatively stable, and the overall inventory is on the high side. The cost pressure of downstream hydrobenzene enterprises has increased in the near future. With the decline of comprehensive starting level of downstream styrene and other products, the demand for hydrobenzene is weak, and the price of hydrobenzene is down this week. As of Friday, the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was about 3350-3450 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from last week.

The business community in the aftermarket thinks that the cost pressure of the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively large, the demand is weak, the crude benzene fundamentals are under pressure, and the bearish sentiment in the field is relatively strong, and it is expected that the price in the aftermarket will still be slightly lower.