Aluminum market trend

 
According to the data of business agency, as of May 6, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12996.67 yuan / ton, up 12.756% from 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

It is reported that the external quotation of Chinalco in various regions has exceeded 13000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the rise of cash to futures has continued to increase. As of May 6, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum 2006 was 12740 yuan / ton, and the settlement price was 12700 yuan / ton.

Supply and demand improved in April

Domestic aluminum consumption has increased substantially with the overall expansion of resumption of production. According to relevant data, the domestic aluminum supply in April was 2.9-2.95 million tons, a decrease of about 100000 tons compared with March; the domestic aluminum consumption in April was 3.3-3.35 million tons, an increase of about 580000 tons compared with March.

Domestic social inventory moves down

In April, the supply and demand side improved and the domestic social inventory moved down. On April 30, the spot inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 1.204 million tons, which was about 460000 tons less than that in March.

Industrial chain transmission downstream starts to increase price sales

With the rise of spot aluminum price and the recent purchase cost of aluminum ingots in the downstream, the price of downstream products began to rise. It is reported that downstream processing enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices in the near future, and many manufacturers send red headed documents to inform customers of price increases.

Future forecast

At present, the price of aluminum contracts in the futures market is higher than that of forward contracts in the near future, and the futures market is expected to be short, mainly based on the consideration of import and export factors. The fundamentals of supply and demand in the domestic market have been effectively improved, social inventory has continued to move down, and the current price has risen, partially easing the pressure of domestic high-cost aluminum ingot manufacturers. In the second quarter, domestic demand is expected to warm up, and in the later period, it will be mainly stable and strong operation. Ye Jianjun, an analyst of the business society, will maintain the original forecast, and will be mainly vibrating in the range of 12500-13500 yuan / ton in May.

Later focus:

Real estate completion cycle and policy support for wire and cable industry

1、 Price trend

In April, the domestic methanol market continued to decline after rebounding. According to the price monitoring of business association, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the month is 1600 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the month is 1657 yuan / ton, up 3.59% in the month, with a maximum amplitude of 11.88%, and the price is 23.76% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic methanol rebounded in the first half of April and bottomed out again in the second half. Due to the staged stock up in the downstream and the considerable purchase volume of olefins, Shandong and other places in the mainland’s consumer market took the lead in the rise, while northwest and other places saw a positive trend. During the Qingming Festival in Yulin of Shenhua, the sales pressure on the northwest region was prominent. After the middle of the year, the price began to fall sharply, with the lowest price in Northern Shaanxi falling to 1280-1330 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, the main production area gradually stopped falling and stabilized, slightly rebounded, due to the considerable influence of the downstream procurement such as Ningxia Baofeng.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this month, the domestic formaldehyde market presents a wide range of shocks. At the beginning of the month, during the Qingming holiday, the atmosphere of stock up in domestic formaldehyde Market before the holiday is general, and terminal enterprises are rational in purchasing. After the festival, the upstream methanol tentative push up driven by formaldehyde companies have followed up. The market will show the mentality of buying up and not buying down. After the end of the festival, the terminal will replenish one after another, and the on-site transaction is OK. In the downstream area, China’s wood processing products are mainly exported to the United States and Europe. The continuation of international public health events is crucial to the recovery of downstream wood panel factory products. At present, the export of wood processing products continues to be limited, which makes the demand for formaldehyde in the wood processing market rapidly decline. Near the end of the month, the exchange atmosphere of formaldehyde products in the field gradually weakened, and the terminal demand continued to be weak.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose by 450-620 yuan / ton in April. Before the Qingming holiday, the domestic acetic acid market fell to the lowest price of the whole year, and the price has been below the cost line. However, after the Qingming holiday, the failure of Yankuang plant in Shandong Province and the load reduction of manufacturers in Henan Province led to the intensification of spot supply in the market. Meanwhile, the low level of raw methanol rebounded, and the acetic acid supplier pushed up the offer, driving the transaction price in the acetic acid Market gradually higher. After the early period of continuous decline, there is no acetic acid reserve in the hands of downstream factories and middlemen. Under the optimistic attitude of the latter period of acetic acid, traders and downstream factories have limited shipments to promote the transaction price of acetic acid to go up in succession. In the middle and early period of the month, mainstream manufacturers have announced the maintenance time, focusing on the end of April and the beginning of May. In the later period of supply, traders are actively replenishing, purchasing and pushing The price of acetic acid rose to the end of April.

Dimethyl ether: this month, the market price of dimethyl ether is up and down, and the price is up and down. At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil soared, driving the prices of methanol in the upper reaches, liquefied gas and dimethyl ether in the lower reaches to rise rapidly, promoting the enthusiasm of terminal procurement, and the price of dimethyl ether continued to rise. However, since April 8, the price rise has slowed down, prices in many regions have been running stably, and prices in the southwest region have shown signs of reduction, mainly due to the sluggish demand in the region and the difficulty of strong stimulation of terminal enthusiasm. After entering the middle of the year, due to the sharp rise in propane price, the price rose to 1000 yuan per ton, and civil gas and other related products began to rebound strongly on April 13, supporting the continuous increase in the price of dimethyl ether. Among them, Henan region saw the most significant increase, with BMW, xinlianxin and other mainstream enterprises raising their prices for several consecutive days. After entering the late ten days, the crude oil price began to plummet, leading to the collapse of terminal purchasing confidence, most of them left the market to wait and see, and the actual transaction was limited.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four commodities in the list of price rise and fall of bulk commodities in April 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (4.99%), MTBE (4.92%) and methanol (3.59%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 25.05%), asphalt (- 23.39%) and naphtha (- 18.96%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 6.46%.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the price of domestic methanol fell sharply in late April, which has fallen below the cash flow cost in most regions. Some enterprises with high cost consider parking response; methanol to olefin integrated unit plans to purchase methanol. On the negative side, the international oil price once fell to a negative number in April, the market panic spread, and investors’ interest was not high; the methanol to olefin maintenance was centralized, and the purchase volume was significantly reduced; the traditional downstream demand did not improve, especially formaldehyde and MTBE; the production of most international methanol plants was stable, and the import volume is expected to remain high in May June. The public health emergency triggered international financial risk aversion, and the collapse of oil price caused by the epidemic was very adverse to the trend of domestic energy chemical products. Methanol market will also fluctuate in the short term, constantly testing the production cost of the plant. At present, methanol supply and demand are unbalanced. Methanol analysts of the business association predict that the domestic methanol market will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Aniline fell at the beginning of this month, rebounded in the middle of this month, and then fell again in the last ten days, according to the data of the bulk list of business associations. On the first day, the price of aniline was 5633.33 yuan / ton, which began to decline, reaching 5033.33 yuan / ton on the ninth day; on the 13th, it began to rebound, reaching 5533.33 yuan / ton on the 15th day; on the 15th-22nd, it was stable operation, and on the 23rd, it began to step down, and on the 30th, it was 4800 yuan / ton. On April 1, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 5700-5750 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 5600-5720 yuan / ton; on April 30, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 4800-5020 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 4800-4890 yuan / ton. The overall trend of this month is downward, down 14.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Raw materials: at the beginning of the month, pure benzene continued to decline in the previous month. After the Qingming Festival, it started the way of bottoming and rebounding. In late April, it returned to the decline. On April 1, the price of pure benzene was 2550-2900 yuan / ton (average price: 2660 yuan / ton). On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 2700-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3020 yuan / ton), 360 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1, with a monthly increase of 13.53%. This month, pure benzene port inventory continued to accumulate, but the increase decreased. After this month’s Qingming Festival holiday, the pure benzene market was affected by crude oil and external market, bottom reading rebounded, and downstream purchasing was positive, with a rebound of more than 30%. The spot supply in Shandong is tight, and the price increase is more obvious. After two weeks of hoarding, the downstream procurement speed slowed down significantly. In the late ten days, crude oil plummeted and pure benzene began to decline.

Nitric acid: the nitric acid market is limited in April, and the price ladder is lower. On April 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1600 yuan / ton, and on April 30, the price was 1466.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 8.33%.

2. Products: in early April, the domestic market recovered slowly, but the impact of foreign public health events intensified, the export of aniline downstream enterprises was blocked, the decline was halted, the contradiction between supply and demand expanded, and the price fell. In the middle of the year, the raw material pure benzene rebounded sharply, and the aniline stock kept up with the rising power. The downstream factories entered the market to purchase and stock up, and the aniline enterprise stock pressure was released rapidly. In the last ten days, after more than a week’s stock up, the downstream procurement recovered to be light. In addition, the overhaul of aniline plant was restarted, and the market supply increased, so the price of aniline fell.

3、 Future forecast

1. In terms of raw materials: the production of downstream pure benzene enterprises in the short term is basically stable, the consumption is mainly in the early stage of hoarding, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. Mainly wait for the later crude oil and the trend of the outer market. In addition, market participants are more bearish about the future, and it is expected that the short-term pure benzene market is still weak.

Under the influence of public health events, the export of downstream enterprises of aniline was poor, some enterprises had the expectation of decline, and the demand for aniline was limited. Lack of good raw material surface is expected to remain weak in the short term, weak support for aniline.

Short term weak aniline operation expected

1、 Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market in April fell sharply. The price at the end of the month was 2766.67 yuan / ton, down 12.32% compared with 3155.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 2.41% year-on-year. In the near future, fluorite price continued to fall.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in April, the price trend of domestic fluorite fell sharply. With the temperature rising, the operating rate of domestic fluorite plant has increased recently. The mine and flotation plant in the site are gradually resumed, and the supply of fluorite in the site is increasing. Due to the increase of the supply in the site, the price of fluorite is greatly reduced. In addition, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid is declining. For the purchase on demand of fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the site is changing Poor, fluorite market price trend decline. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in a low market price. As of the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite on the site fell.

Industry chain: in April, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell sharply. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 9660 yuan / ton, and the decline of hydrofluoric acid in April was 11.38%. The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fell sharply, which was a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price of fluorite fell sharply. The market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is poor, and the demand for refrigerant is declining continuously. Foreign special events are serious, the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and it is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. Overall, the demand at home and abroad is lower than expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is reduced under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of whether the market has price or not is obvious. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

Industry: in April, the unit operating rate of fluorite industry increased slightly, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid fell sharply, the spot supply of products in fluorite field was sufficient, and the market price of fluorite fell sharply.

3、 Future forecast

On the whole, the downstream refrigerant industry has a poor market, the supply of fluorite has increased, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst with the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to decline.