1、 Price trend

On May 11, the TDI commodity index was 58.38, up 5.47 points from yesterday, down 76.46% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and up 11.07% from 52.56, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) according to the data of the large list of business agencies, the average price of TDI market in East China on November 11 was 11033.33 yuan / ton, up 10.33% per day.

2、 Market analysis

Product: last week, the domestic market rose as a whole, the factory continued to release favorable information, and the company’s offer quickly increased. After the festival, the market rebounded under the good news of the factory. At present, the market remains on the sidelines. This week, favorable factors such as equipment maintenance and supply reduction will continue. The market may go higher. However, the downstream inventory is high, and the periodic replenishment has been completed. The inquiry atmosphere is weak, and the high price conflicts. There is a fear of volume reduction in trading. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills out of stock is 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills out of stock is 10500-10800 yuan / ton, which is subject to the actual delivery.

Industry chain: China’s domestic toluene market rebounded and rose last week. The market expectation was supported by the rise of international crude oil around the labor day. OPEC + started to reduce production and some European countries returned to work to boost production. The trend of strong international crude oil shocks was dominant. Affected by this, domestic methylbenzene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the supply of toluene after the festival is under pressure, and the market is expected to be stable in a narrow range.

On the downstream side, due to the high stock of raw materials purchased at low price in the early stage, the downstream has a low acceptance of the current market rise, a small amount of hard goods need to be replenished in the field, and the overall digestion of the early stock is the main way to reduce the market entry operation. The on-site trading is mostly the early empty single closing position and the price tends to the low end, and the high price trading resistance is still large.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market is generally strong, the supplier keeps releasing good news, and maintains a strong attitude towards the market, while the on-site dealers mostly follow the factory policy and maintain a wait-and-see state, the downstream has a low acceptance of high prices, and the intention to enter the market is cold. TDI market is expected to keep rising in the short term and pay attention to downstream acceptance in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China fell slightly. On May 11, the average market price was 3381 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the previous trading day, down 49.54% year on year. The main futures in the futures market (2009) ended down in shock and closed at 3488, down 22% or 0.63% from the previous trading day.

Due to the fall of crude oil, PTA buying is dominated by traders and polyester factories. The trading atmosphere in the spot market has declined, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle. In terms of units, the starting load remained at a high level near 92%. Shanghai Petrochemical planned to enter into maintenance on May 16. At present, Jialong petrochemical, Pengwei petrochemical, Liwan new material and Tianjin Petrochemical are still in the shutdown stage, with good profit level of the plant and delayed maintenance plan.

Enterprise name capacity device change

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Shanghai Petrochemical 40 plans to enter into maintenance on May 16

In the downstream polyester market, the production and marketing volume brought by the downstream stock up and fund bottom reading before and after the Qingming and may day double festival effectively alleviated the pressure of high inventory. The short-term polyester start-up performance was relatively stable. There was no clear maintenance and restart plan for the factory. A few factories intended to increase the inventory and load, and the start-up was maintained around 84%. At present, the price of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively stable and wait-and-see mood is strong. The enthusiasm for purchasing is significantly reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is mainly light. Among them, polyester POY (150D / 48F) is reported at 5400-5550 yuan / ton.

The weaving end is the most direct response to the change of terminal demand. The weaving start-up load began to fall back in late March. There was a large area of parking and holiday phenomenon in Qingming Festival. Even though the start-up rate after the festival rose slightly, with the shutdown of May Day holiday, the current operating rate decreased to 40%. At the same time, affected by this public health event, foreign trade enterprises still face many difficulties, such as cancellation or postponement of orders, difficulty in signing new orders, and poor logistics. From January to April 2020, the cumulative export of textile and clothing reached 66.62 billion US dollars, down 10%, of which 37.31 billion US dollars were textile exports, up 2.9%, and 29.31 billion US dollars were clothing exports, down 22.3%. In April, driven by the export of respirators and other anti epidemic products, China’s textile exports reached 14.62 billion US dollars, up 51.06% year on year, and clothing exports reached 6.74 billion US dollars, down 27.7%.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business news agency, believes that in terms of crude oil, the collapse of demand has led to a serious global crude oil surplus, leading to tight storage capacity. Although OPEC + and US crude oil have plans to reduce production, the pressure on crude oil surplus can hardly be eased in the short term. It is expected that the oil price will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and the driving force of sustained rebound is not strong. At the same time, there are not many expected devices for PTA maintenance at present, the starting load remains high, and the downstream polyester load continues to increase with high pressure, PTA supply pressure remains, high inventory or become the normal PTA, and it is expected that the social inventory of PTA will reach a high value of 4 million tons in May June. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA price volatility is more likely to be weak adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price rebounded and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3500 yuan / ton, up 5.74% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: with the entry into may, the OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect, and many countries in Europe and the United States gradually restarted their economies. During the 5.1 long holiday, the international crude oil rebounded sharply. Affected by this, the domestic toluene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the gradual economic restart in Europe and the United States, the crude oil market gradually transited from a state of declining demand, near saturation of storage capacity, worrying that the reduction of production is less than expected to a state of demand recovery, and a rebalancing process of supply and demand with declining production. On May 7, Saudi Aramco announced a substantial increase in the price of oil for Europe in June, which led to a strong rebound in international crude oil prices. As of early Friday morning, Brent rose 29.62%, Brent futures rose 17.68%, WTI futures rose 17.41%, and Dubai futures rose 25.12%.

In the downstream, the TDI market is slightly stronger, and the quotation keeps rising. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 9600-10000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai goods with bills is 9900-10200 yuan / ton, and that of Wanhua chemical in May is 12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable and small rebound trend, and pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market delivery Investment situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the external market is about 471 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 491 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the United States and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the delivery trend of crude oil futures in June. In general, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price rebounded and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3560 yuan / ton, up 6.27% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: with the entry into may, the OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect, and many countries in Europe and the United States gradually restarted their economies. During the 5.1 long holiday, the international crude oil rebounded sharply. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3650 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the gradual economic restart in Europe and the United States, the crude oil market gradually transited from a state of declining demand, near saturation of storage capacity, worrying that the reduction of production is less than expected to a state of demand recovery, and a rebalancing process of supply and demand with declining production. On May 7, Saudi Aramco announced a substantial increase in the price of oil for Europe in June, which led to a strong rebound in international crude oil prices. As of early Friday morning, Brent rose 29.62%, Brent futures rose 17.68%, WTI futures rose 17.41%, and Dubai futures rose 25.12%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 471 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 491 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the price of domestic PTA spot market is about 3450 yuan / ton, and the price of external market is about 420 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price trend will be stable next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of o-benzene is stable, with the price of 4000 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 440 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the US and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the delivery trend of crude oil futures in June. In a word, xylene price in the domestic market next week is expected to depend on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business associations, the price of aniline decreased during the festival, with a decrease of 200 yuan / ton in Shandong and 200 yuan / ton in East China. On May 9), the price of aniline in Shandong was 4600-4690 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, down 4.17% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week, the focus of domestic pure benzene market strengthened, boosted by the rise of crude oil and foreign market. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice this week, with a total increase of 350 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton. On May 3, the listing price of pure benzene was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price: 2960 yuan / ton); on Wednesday (6), Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 200 yuan / ton, and China’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 2950-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3120 yuan / ton); on Saturday (9), Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton, and China’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 10.47% compared with last week.

Nitric acid continued to decline in the week, and the production price in East China was 1433.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 2.27% from last week.

Product: during the festival, the price of aniline enterprises was lowered. The price remained stable within the week, and the enterprise’s shipment was acceptable.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the downstream enterprises are in a profit-making state as a whole, the plant operation rate is improved, and the demand for pure benzene is increased to a certain extent. At present, crude oil and outer plate have a good prospect, providing support for pure benzene. In addition, the current hydrogenation benzene is 3200-3500 yuan / ton. It is expected that pure benzene deposit will continue to rise.

The cost side news is good, which will support the price of aniline. At present, the profit margin of aniline is large, and it is possible to decline if the shipment pressure increases.

On May 8, the rare earth index was 330, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 21.77% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 353500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 2000 yuan / ton to 265500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1770000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 305000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide was 279000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy increased by 3500 yuan / ton to 334000 yuan / ton, while the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.775 million yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth is mainly stable, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising slightly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers start work normally, the domestic supply is normal, and the domestic heavy rare earth price surges down. In the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is general, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly rising slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is normal in the near future, and some market prices are mainly stable. In addition, recent foreign health events have a great impact on the export volume of rare earth products, and the price trend of rare earth market is stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand was normal, and some rare earth prices rose slightly.

Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents said that by 2025, new energy vehicle sales accounted for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise application, and formed the compilation of relevant supporting policies for rare earth industry resumption. All rare earth enterprises should actively connect with China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association, obtain relevant policy information, accurately grasp the application requirements, strive for policy support, promote the smooth operation of rare earth industry chain, and jointly promote the stable and healthy development of the industry.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market is normal in the near future, and the downstream demand is general. In addition, the downstream export market is poor, and the rare earth industry is not well supported, and the price trend of rare earth market is expected to be stable in the later period.

1、 Overall trend

In April, the three major varieties of domestic polyethylene market showed a trend of first promotion and then suppression, with the overall increase being the main trend, and the market transaction atmosphere improved compared with the previous period. As of April 30, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 5.00% from the beginning of the week; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was about 7325 yuan / ton, up 5.02% from the beginning of the month; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7050 yuan / ton, up 3.42% from the beginning of the week; the three PE varieties rose 200-300 yuan / ton this month.

2、 Market analysis

International crude oil: the international oil price once fell to a negative number in April, the market panic spread, most of the time in a volatile soft trend. On April 9, the OPEC + special meeting ended, and its production reduction volume was lower than the market expectation, and the oil price fell again; on April 14, the international oil price fell again, mainly because OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreement disappointed the market, the production reduction share was difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory exceeded the expectation, which increased the market panic atmosphere; on April 20 On April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and the price rose for two consecutive days. The Brent crude oil futures market continued to decline and the price fell sharply. In May, the contract fell to a negative range, but in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. Until April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and the price rose for two consecutive days, the Brent crude oil futures market price rose sharply, which is also the international crude oil company WTI rose more than 40% in the following two days, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries and the geopolitical turmoil of peripheral factors.

Ethylene: in April, the overall trend of ethylene fell. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $350-360 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $325-335 / T. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 27th, with FD northwest Europe closing at $373-386 / T and CIF northwest Europe closing at $314-325 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region has declined. As of the 27th, the price is US $187-199 / ton. Generally speaking, in April, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States continued to decline, and the price of the whole ethylene market has kept breaking the lowest point. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Manufacturer’s trends: in the first half of April, the factory price of petrochemicals took the lead. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil rebounded, and the futures market was running at a high level, which gave a significant boost to the market. Most of the petrochemical manufacturers raised their factory prices continuously, and the market cost was well supported. Businesses took the opportunity to increase their enthusiasm for entering the market. In the second half of April, the factory price of petrochemicals was mainly reduced. With the continuous rise of the price in the first half of the month, the lower reaches are in conflict with the high price, and the purchase is not active. In addition, the international crude oil continues to plummet, which severely depresses the PE market. The industry has a strong sense of short-sightedness and is mainly on the lookout. In order to reduce the inventory of petrochemical enterprises, the price has been lowered frequently, the market cost support has been reduced, the attitude of the businessmen is pessimistic, and the price has fallen. At present, the resumption of work is slow under the influence of social public health events. In addition to the surging demand for some medical PE films, the market demand is limited.

Futures trend: the futures market rose in April, which was good for PE spot market to some extent. On April 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures l2009 was 6150, the highest price was 6190, the lowest price was 6020, the closing price was 6180, the former settlement price was 6110, the settlement price was 6110, up 70, or 1.15%, the trading volume was 423283, the position was 328375, and the daily increase was – 10925. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

3、 Future forecast

At the end of the month, the international crude oil rebounded sharply, and the linear futures market also rose, bringing certain benefits to the market. This month, petrochemicals reduced its inventory well, and the inventory was at a normal level. The demand for PE medical film increased and the order increased, which brought a certain boost to the market. But at present, the peak season of film demand has passed, and the off-season is coming, and the terminal demand is expected to decrease. It is expected that the polyethylene market may have a narrow rise in the short term, and it may still fall in the long term.

1、 Price trend:

On May 8, crude benzene commodity index was 40.38, up 5.15 points from yesterday, down 69.37% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), and up 32.22% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Sinopec No.6 raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 3000 yuan / ton, and the external market of pure benzene rose. On April 30, the price of most crude benzene manufacturers was flat due to the approaching holiday, but no adjustment was made. After the holiday, crude oil rebounded, driving the domestic chemical product trading to improve. Under the favorable influence of pure benzene and crude oil, the bidding price rose this week, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises in the near future rose There is no significant increase in cost pressure. As of Friday, Shandong’s quotation was around 2790 yuan / ton, up 690 yuan / ton from last week.

Industry chain: crude oil: Brent closed at 25.095 USD / barrel at sight yesterday (as of 3:00 a.m. on May 8, Beijing time), up 2.075 USD or 9.01% on the previous trading day. WTI closed at $24.83 per barrel, down $0.79, or 3.08%, from the previous session. In terms of pure benzene: Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton on the 6th day after the festival. The reference price of pure benzene in Korean market is 357 USD / T, up 20 USD / T or 5.93% compared with the previous trading day. The reference import price in East China is 376 US dollars / ton, up 23 US dollars / ton or 6.52% compared with the previous trading day.

3、 Trend Forecast:

The bidding price of crude benzol rose after the festival, but the downstream demand support was limited, and the future market pressure of crude benzol was still in place. The price trend of crude oil and pure benzol still needed to be focused on, and it is expected that the pressure of crude benzol will remain in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone fell in a weak way. According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of May 8, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 5680 yuan / ton, up 8.54% month on month, down 44.50% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the market of cyclohexanone is rising, driven by the cost side, the factory is reluctant to sell at low price, the external offer is increased, the market price is reduced, the price in East China is 5900-6100 yuan / ton in cash, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: due to the closure of Asia’s pure benzene Market in Vesak, Singapore, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ara both increased by 20 US dollars to 292 US dollars / ton, and FOB USG by 5 US cents to 106 US cents / gallon. Due to the high inventory in the port, the price of pure benzene spot in East China weakened to 3310-3370 yuan / ton due to the weak intention to pick up goods in the downstream. There is no delivery pressure in Shandong refining, and the price is firm at 3350-3400 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: Sinopec’s caprolactam was listed in May and increased by 400 to 9100 yuan / ton. Tianchen Yaolong initially planned to feed on May 10, and orchid science and Technology Co., Ltd. continued its maintenance in June. Nanjing Dongfang plant has been restarted, and the whole caprolactam started 70%.

Adipic acid: the North China adipic acid market is full of wait-and-see sentiment. Adipic acid factory listing up or announced new moon listing, the cost pressure of lower and middle-class operators increased. The middlemen in the spot market made a tentative offer to keep up with the rise, but the downstream acceptance was limited and high-end transactions were difficult, waiting for the guidance of pure benzene news. Price reference: 6000-6200 yuan / ton to be delivered by acceptance, negotiated according to the bill.

3、 Future forecast

Pure benzene runs at a high level, and there is not much pressure on the spot of the factory. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of domestic cyclohexanone will run upward in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market trend of PA6 in April was volatile and the price amplitude was narrow. As of April 30, the main offer price of CCK 2.75-2.85 was about 10366.67 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.32% compared with the previous average price level at the beginning of April.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam upstream of PA6, the crude oil and chemical market was volatile this month. At the beginning of the month, OPEC’s various adjustments affected the oil price by a large margin, and the price of pure benzene at the cost end stopped falling and rebounded. With the multi positive boost, the consumption of port inventory accumulation, by the middle of the year, the price of pure benzene rose, and the focus of negotiation rose. Linked with caprolactam, the market price rose. Good raw material market and downstream demand follow-up work together, caprolactam rose to mid month. The supply of caprolactam increased in the late ten days due to the weak recovery of pure benzene and the gradual restart of recent plant maintenance. Social inventory rose and prices continued to fall back. The business mentality is not strong. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam will be the main part in the later stage;

The price of caprolactam rebounded and then leveled off. At present, it is weak. Limited support for PA6 cost side. This month’s volatile market is also affected by the adjustment of cost side volatility. The effect of resumption of production in polymerization plant began to show. At present, supply is on the rise, and social inventory is on the rise. In addition, the downstream mainly adopts the strategy of just need replenishment, with less consumption. The inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is still slow, and the mentality of businesses is not strong. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. At present, the price of PA6 in China has fallen. PA6 market is expected to be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in April, the domestic PA6 market was adjusted by shocks, and the whole month price amplitude was narrow. The trend of upstream caprolactam is general, and the improvement of PA6 cost end support is limited. The demand for replenishment is weak in the downstream, and PA6 consumption needs to be further improved. PA6 market is expected to be weak in the near future.