1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on May 19, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of May, the overall trend of domestic n-propanol market has been relatively stable. The domestic n-propanol barrel price reference in Shandong Province is around 10000-10600 yuan / ton, and the individual high-end price reference is 10800 yuan / ton. With the influence of last week’s slight recovery of isopropanol, this week’s isopropanol manufacturers adjusted the ex factory quotation of isopropanol timely according to their own inventory and downstream demand and other factors, with the majority of the increase, with a range of 200-300 yuan / ton. The market mainstream quotation reference is 10200-10800 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is 11000-11500 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 19th, the ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging of Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 11000 yuan / ton; the price is 500 yuan / ton higher than that of last week; the ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that of a week ago; the ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging of Jinan angxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10600 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that of a week ago. Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd.’s ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging is 10000 yuan / ton, which is down 500 yuan / ton compared with that a week ago; Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd.’s ex factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging is 10000 yuan / ton, which is the same as that a week ago.

Industry chain: on the 18th of this week, the market price of propylene in Shandong still rose. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price went up by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th, some enterprises went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 11th, they went up by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton continuously. On the 14th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton continuously. On the weekends The upward trend remained unchanged until 18th, and now the market transaction has reached between 6800-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. Influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week, and now the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose significantly again, and slightly declined on November 11. In the later stage, the crude oil price increased slightly continuously, and rose significantly on July 15, which has a certain positive impact on propylene. On the other hand, the propylene inventory is low, the downstream operating rate is at a high level, the goods are slightly in short supply, and the shipment is relatively smooth. Although the downstream is under pressure due to the continuous rise for several days, the downstream is also up, so it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: according to the prediction of the business agency: as a solvent, the application of n-propanol in the domestic market is relatively fixed, and the downstream demand is relatively stable, so it is expected that the follow-up market is mainly stable.

On May 19, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was eighty-seven point three two , up from yesterday Five point eight Point, the highest point in the cycle two hundred and sixteen point nine eight Point (2017-12-24) decreased 59.76% , compared with the lowest point on August 3, 2016 seventy-one point seven four It’s up 21.72% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: since May, terminal demand has continued to be low, and the price of hydrogen peroxide continues to be weak. This week, with the support of terminal purchase demand, the price of hydrogen peroxide ushered in a turning point, and the price has stopped falling and rising. As of May 19, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide is 803 yuan / ton, rising one day 7.11% , the price is higher than the beginning of the month 0.84% 。

market analysis

Products: after the May Day holiday, due to the decrease in the export of downstream products such as bleaching board, the demand for hydrogen peroxide was weak, and the price continued to fall, with the price falling by about 5 points. The price of terminal caprolactam products continued to rise, with the price rising nearly 15 points. Driven by the sharp rise of caprolactam, the amount of hydrogen peroxide purchased by manufacturers gradually increased. This week, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a rising market. The main quotation of domestic hydrogen peroxide is 760-800 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 50-100 yuan / ton.

As of May 19, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong: Luxi Chemical 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 760 yuan / ton, 60 yuan / ton higher than last week;

Hebei Province: Zhengyuan fertilizer industry 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 800 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than last week;

Anhui Province: Quansheng, Anhui Province 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 850 yuan / ton, the same as last week;

Hunan Province: Shuangyang, Hunan Province 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 900 yuan / ton, the same as last week;

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% The price of hydrogen peroxide is 1000 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than last week.

Industry chain: after May 1st, the price of terminal caprolactam rose all the way because of the rising price of raw material pure benzene. Driven by the rising situation, the spot supply was tight. Some enterprises restarted the device, increased the purchase demand for hydrogen peroxide, which was boosted, and the market was getting better. Due to the depression of paper printing industry, the increase was limited.

Future prospects

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business club, believes that: the start-up rate of terminal caprolactam manufacturers increases, the later supply keeps up, and the price will decline. In the short term, it will support the hydrogen peroxide Market, and in the long term, the momentum of hydrogen peroxide growth is still insufficient.

Market price: phenol and acetone are rising again, epoxy resin is rising again and PC is boosted slightly by helmet policy, which makes bisphenol a market intend to rise again. It’s hard to find a low price supply this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the offer in the East China market is stable at 9700-9750 yuan / ton, and the offer in the North China market is maintained at over 9700 yuan / ton. After last week’s stop, the market fell back. This week, the market intends to push up again. This week, the increase is 50 yuan / ton, although the increase is limited, the enthusiasm of traders for shipment is general. Although there is a general atmosphere of inventory purchase in the downstream, the source of low-cost goods in the market is hard to find, Hold goods merchant mentality to be good.

Analysis and comment: Products: this week’s opening of bisphenol a market negotiation atmosphere is good, traders have a positive attitude, and it’s hard to find in the low-cost offer site; Sinopec Mitsubishi plant is restored and restarted, Lihua yiweiyuan starts 80%, offers maintain 10000 yuan / ton, Changchun starts 80%, offers maintain 9800 yuan / ton, Sinopec Mitsui full load operation, offers 9900 yuan / ton has no export temporarily.

Industry chain: phenol Market and acetone market keep high, which support the price and cost of BPA. First of all, in terms of phenol, after the May Day holiday, the port unloading difficulties in phenol Market and the favorable news on the supply side such as device maintenance were released. In East China, the price rose to 7000 yuan / ton, up 10% in the week after the holiday (as of May 10). After the sharp rise, the market demand side resistance quickly weakened, and in East China, the price fell to 6450 yuan / ton. However, in the middle of May, the import source was supplemented, but the overall phenol supply was still available There is no pressure. The phenol market rose again this week. Currently, the listing price of petrochemical manufacturers remains stable at 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The market in East China was quoted at 6650-6700 yuan / ton. This week, the market opened up 150-300 yuan / ton, the average increase in the national market 2.61% 。

Another important raw material acetone market, since the middle of May, the acetone market has maintained a high level of operation. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, up to now, the price of acetone offered by mainstream factories in East China is 8000-8400 yuan / ton, that of mainstream factories in North China is 8100 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong factories is 8400 yuan / ton. Currently, the price of mainstream markets is 8000-8150 yuan/ Tons, the price of 8400-8500 yuan / ton in surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong. Active imports have successively arrived in Hong Kong to ease the market supply tension. The downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, and the acetone market has a narrow downward trend. However, the current high price of acetone market in the past three years still forms a cost support for the bisphenol market.

In the downstream market, due to the influence of helmet policy, the price of mainstream factories increased by 200-600 yuan / ton as the raw material of helmet front baffle. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The PC market will undoubtedly usher in a wave of small peak development. In the short term, the price of PC as the raw material of helmet production is expected to maintain the recent rising trend. Helmet Technology The content is low, the service life is long, and the sharp rise trend is difficult to appear. In the long run, there is still a weak expectation in the domestic PC market. Another important downstream is the high-level finishing of epoxy resin. At present, the liquid epoxy resin is 19000-20000 yuan / ton. This week, the mainstream large-scale factory raised the offer by 500 yuan / ton again, and the device is in stable operation.

Industry: on May 19, the chemical industry index was 642, up 2 points from yesterday, 21 points from May 1, 621, and 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020 7.36% 。 (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now). The chemical industry has been steadily rising, showing a trend of up, down and less, and the market mentality has been boosted.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw materials are strongly supported, the downstream market is gradually developing well, and the whole chemical industry market is showing a trend of more growth and less decline. The market mentality is extremely large, and the carrier has full information about the bisphenol a market in the later stage. It is expected that the bisphenol a market in East China will remain at 9700-9900 yuan / ton.

Commodity index: on May 17, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.13, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 18.67% lower than the highest point of 107.13 on May 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price: according to the monitoring data of the business agency (100ppi. Com), the polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) price was slightly reduced in the first half of May. On May 1, 2020, the market mainstream price was about 14820 yuan / ton, on May 15, the market mainstream price was about 14420 yuan / ton, and the price was reduced by 3.38%.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decrease. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was lowered many times during the period. By the end of last ten days, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a concussion of about 20%; in February, it had fallen to 8850 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1750-1800 yuan / ton, with a drop of about 17%; in March, acrylonitrile continued to be lowered, with a range of 1000 yuan / ton. In April, the price of acrylonitrile fell first and then stabilized. On the first day, the quotation was 7450 yuan / ton, with a decrease of over 17.9% and 1400 yuan / ton in the first ten days. On the 14th, it rose 250 yuan / ton and was 6650 yuan / ton, with a total of 250 yuan / ton falling later and 6350 yuan / ton stabilizing. In the last ten days, the quotation was stable. In May, acrylonitrile started to rebound, with a quotation of 7150 yuan / ton as of May 15, and a total rebound of 800 yuan / ton in half a month. Downstream: at present, the downstream water treatment engineering construction enterprises are difficult to survive, with poor demand, and the polyacrylamide market is average.

Manufacturer: the manufacturer’s production is normal, the current downstream demand is still not very good, but the cost of raw materials has increased. At present, the main specifications of polyacrylamide market in Henan Province are as follows: cation: molecular weight 12 million, quotation 1430-15000 yuan / ton; anion: molecular weight 10 million, quotation 8000-9000 yuan / ton, quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton, quotation 9400-10000 yuan / ton, quotation 9800-10500 yuan / ton, quotation 18 million yuan / ton, quotation 8800-9500 yuan / ton, quotation 14 million yuan / ton, quotation 16 million yuan / ton Price: 10400-11000 yuan / ton; molecular weight: 18-20 million yuan / ton; price: 12000-12500 yuan / ton; price: 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work, and the logistics returned to normal in March, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide changed little, and there was a lot of inventory.

Aftermarket forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile rebounded 800 yuan / ton this month, the demand for polyacrylamide still needs to be recovered in time and day, the high-speed recovery of charges, the manufacturer’s inventory is large, the possibility of price rise in the short term is small, it does not exclude that the enterprises with high inventory will reduce the quoted consumption inventory, the overall market is relatively strong, and the aftermarket depends on the downstream demand.

Market price: since the middle of May, the acetone market has maintained a high level of operation. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, up to now, the offer of acetone for mainstream factories in East China is 8000 yuan / ton, 8100 yuan / ton for mainstream factories in North China and 8400 yuan / ton for factories in Shandong. The current offer of mainstream markets: 8300-8400 yuan / ton for mainstream factories in East China, surrounding areas of Yanshan and Shandong offers 8400-8500 yuan / ton. Looking back on history, on February 10, 2017, the market price of acetone in East China was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton, the market price of acetone around Yanshan was about 8300-8350 yuan / ton, and the negotiation price in South China was about 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

Trend of ex factory prices in East China in 2017-2020

National market price trend in recent three months

First, the port supply is tight, and the acetone market keeps pushing up. Last week, the port inventory went down to 7000 tons, and the imported goods were unable to be unloaded due to the congestion of arrival at the port. The supply of acetone for imported goods was once tight. In addition, the Tianjin acetone plant in Zhongsha was shut down for maintenance for two months, and 70% of Yangzhou Shiyou plant was in operation, with the market average operating rate of less than 80%, while the terminal rose rapidly. With the support of the mentality of the cargo supplier, the port reported a high price boldly, and those with a small amount of inventory were reluctant to sell, market reported The offer is firm and strong, and the supply of low-cost goods is hard to find. The market has risen to more than 8000 yuan, and the offer in East China has retreated to 8400 yuan / ton.

Second, the raw material market keeps rising, with strong cost support. In terms of pure benzene, the listing price of the manufacturers is 150 yuan / ton. In terms of market, the listing price of pure benzene is 3100-3550 yuan / ton on May 9, and 3100-3600 yuan / ton on Sunday (May 17), an increase of 1.22%. In terms of propylene, the domestic market price of propylene (Shandong) rose unilaterally, with the initial weekly price of 6332 yuan / ton and the weekend price of 6657 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.13%.

Third, the differentiation of terminal demand products is obvious. The start-up of bisphenol A enterprises was stable, with the overall start-up of 60-70%. Sinopec Mitsubishi 180000 T / a plant was shut down on the 5th, and keschuang 410000 T / a plant was shut down last week; the start-up of isopropanol plant remained high, and the isopropanol plant experienced a second rise due to the upward impact of raw acetone, and the offer again exceeded 10000 yuan. MMA rose significantly, and overall good trading just needed to buy high priced acetone market. However, MIBK market has been greatly impacted. In the face of high price acetone market, enterprises have reduced their start-up and even stopped production. By the end of last week, the start-up rate of MIBK plant has declined significantly, and there are few start-up enterprises.

Future market forecast: the port will unload at the weekend, and the port inventory will be replenished appropriately. At present, the port inventory is over 10000 tons, and the shipping willingness of high-level cargo holders is enhanced. There is no shortage of low-cost acetone offers in Jiangsu and Ningbo, with a slight downward offer of 8250-8350 yuan / ton. However, Sinopec in North China raised its offer by 100 yuan / ton. The local market is strongly supported, and the market offer remains high at 8400-8500 yuan / ton , the offer of Shandong area is kept at 8400 yuan / ton in line with the listing of lihuayi Weiyuan. It is predicted by the business agency that the current acetone market has limited high-level downstream follow-up, and there are still imported goods coming to Hong Kong in the near future. It is expected that the acetone market in East China will still maintain a slight callback market above 8000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the market in East China will offer 8150-8250 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China continued to rise slightly. On May 18, the average market price was 3493 yuan / ton, up 1.68% compared with the previous trading day, down 43.40% year on year. The main futures in the futures market (2009) rose in shock to close at 3606, up 66% or 1.86% from the previous trading day. Driven by crude oil, the current PTA price is warm, and spot transactions are dominated by traders and suppliers, with a good buying atmosphere.

In terms of supply, PTA production capacity was put into operation at the beginning of the year with high start-up rate. Weekly production reached a new high in recent years, and social inventory is now around 3.5 million tons. At present, the start-up load of the unit is maintained at a high level near 92%. The 400000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been shut down for maintenance in the morning on May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days. Hainan Yisheng 2 million ton plant is planned to be shut down for 12-15 days on June 5. Of course, it does not rule out the possibility of accidental maintenance and parking.

Enterprise name capacity device change

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance in the morning on May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Hainan Yisheng 200 plans to stop for maintenance for 12-15 days on June 5

The downstream polyester plant unit restart and maintenance coexist, among which about 450000 tons of polyester units of Shanghai Petrochemical and Rongsheng are expected to be overhauled, and about 100000 tons of polyester units of Tianjin Petrochemical are expected to be restarted, with the start-up around 84%. In terms of price, affected by the boost of raw materials, the market price of polyester is stable and rising. In the afternoon, some polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. Downstream weaving and texturing enterprises are preparing goods one after another, and the comprehensive start-up rate has been raised to a higher level of 51%.

The terminal textile market, although the current textile market is still in the off-season as a whole, but the recent domestic market shows signs of improvement, inventory consumption. Recently, the domestic and foreign textile orders have improved. Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam have resumed production. In early May, the government of Bangladesh decided to restart more than 2000 textile factories. Up to now, nearly half of the garment factories in Bangladesh have gradually resumed work. With the deepening of the resumption of work, a large number of foreign trade orders will also be a high probability event.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that in the short term, crude oil rebounded strongly, but there is still a risk of weakness. PTA device maintenance is expected to increase, and overlay terminal enterprises are returning to work one after another. There is a possibility of improvement in supply and demand, and substantial recovery needs to be observed. PTA market is expected to fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in the first half of May fluctuated, with different brand materials rising and falling. Among them, fiber material has a certain callback. As of May 15, the main quoted price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 7883.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.25% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. However, the adjustment range of wire drawing materials is narrow. The main offer price of T30S is about 7533.33 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month by 0.44%.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: the domestic propylene market price rose steadily in the first half of May. Last month, Shandong propylene price experienced a sharp rise and fall after holding steady again, after the market steady on the main actor. Recently, influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the beginning of the month. Now, the crude oil still rose, but the trend slowed down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose significantly again, which had a certain positive impact on the future market of propylene. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene increased slightly, and then the price rose about 50 yuan / ton every day. In addition, the downstream isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, has finally stopped rising and falling since the end of last month. After the decline in the first ten days of this month, the shock and stability maintenance may have a negative impact on propylene. Overall, the international crude oil market has a certain supporting role for propylene. While the downstream market is mostly rational, but the operating rate slightly increased. The current inventory pressure is not big, but the external propylene may increase, and it is expected that the price of propylene will increase slightly in recent days;

Product: upstream propylene market is positive, while PP market in the first half of the month is not clear. In the first half of this month, the domestic PP market showed a dressing state, with the overall temporarily adjusted. In April, the atmosphere of fiber speculation is full, resulting in overproduction. With the speculation coming to an end, the current price is on the way back gradually. Among them, the recessive inventory to be digested and the weak downstream demand outside the mask are all the reasons for the continuous decline of fiber materials. In the aspect of wire drawing, the production of wire drawing materials gradually returned to the normal level after the May 1st movement. In addition, imported materials were concentrated in Hong Kong in the near future, and the stock was expected to increase.

However, the current price of the drawing materials just in need is still firm, and the traders will ship them on the market. Futures markets are also mixed. The melt blown materials have also been reduced in varying degrees, with a large range of price reduction for some brands. The capacity of new process production lines of Yanshan Petrochemical and other large factories has also been put in place. At present, the overseas public health situation is still grim, but the export of polypropylene products is hindered. It is expected that the overseas export of melt blown materials in the later stage will inevitably be affected.

3、 Future forecast

PP analyst of business agency thinks: the domestic PP spot market was mainly adjusted in the first half of May. Propylene market goes up, and the positive upstream support for PP cost end is acceptable. But the market is long empty entanglement, fiber material due to heat reduction and high inventory still fell, wire drawing material is relatively strong. At present, exports are blocked and overseas consumption is unclear. Downstream factory demand order follow-up is general, merchants go with the market, it is expected that the domestic PP market will be weak in the near future.

In recent years, the prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy in the domestic rare earth market have continued to rise. In recent years, the downstream demand has increased, and merchants are reluctant to sell rare earth in the domestic market. According to the rare earth sector index of the business association, the rare earth index was 331 on May 15, which was the same as yesterday, 66.90% lower than the highest point of 1000 in the cycle (2011-12-06), and 22.14% higher than the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the middle of May, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 271000 yuan / ton, which rose 2.85% in May, up 2.07% year on year; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 341000 yuan / ton, which rose 3.18% in May, up 1.04% year on year; by the end of the week, the price of dysprosium oxide rose 20000 yuan / ton to 1.79 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy rose 25000 yuan / ton to 1.77 million yuan / ton, holmium oxide and gadolinium oxide , holmium, iron, etc. all increased in price to varying degrees.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, praseodymium and neodymium oxides have been rising continuously, with an increase of 2.85% in May. This round of price increase is related to the increase of downstream stock demand. Due to the extremely low price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which is close to the cost line, the merchants are reluctant to sell and the price is rising. In addition, with the resumption of production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, and the demand for goods prepared by the downstream permanent magnet material manufacturers of rare earth is increasing, the boom of praseodymium and neodymium oxide also drives the prices of gadolinium oxide, holmium oxide and other materials up. The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the second exclusion list of the second batch of goods subject to us and Canadian tariffs, which mainly includes: rare earth metal ore, silver ore and its concentrate, gold ore, nickel alloy plate / strip / foil, nickel alloy wire, nickel alloy tube, aluminum alloy tube with an outer diameter of no more than 10 cm, titanium tube, nickel cadmium battery, etc. This time, the tariff imposed by the 301 measure against the US will not be added to the rare earth metal ore, and the added tariff will be refunded. It is possible to promote the import of rare earth metal ore, which is a good support for the praseodymium neodymium oxide Market.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which specified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of rare earth market is normal, but the demand is not significantly good, and the market price of rare earth is slightly down.

Heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual production in the plan of rare earth collection and storage. In addition, Myanmar’s closure still has a tight impact on the domestic import and supply of heavy rare earth. Once the plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a great impact on the supply and demand of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium and the price rise. Business analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China has been rising steadily this week, with the weekly low price of 6332 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the weekly high price of 6657 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.13%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: last month, Shandong propylene price soared and plummeted, and then remained stable again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price went up by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th, some enterprises went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 11th, they went up by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton continuously. On the 14th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton again. Today, they are still up by 50-100 yuan / ton. Now, the market The turnover is between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 6600 yuan / ton. At present, propylene inventory is low, goods are slightly in short supply, and shipment is relatively smooth.

Industry chain: influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week. Now, the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose again significantly. On November 11, the crude oil went down slightly. In the later period, the crude oil price increased slightly, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Affected by public health events, the modified special material in PP last month was melt blown cloth material, and the price rose sharply in the early stage. Now, the price of melt blown cloth has been lowered, and PP futures have been restored to rationality. This week, PP spot has stepped down, with a weekly decline of 3.67%, slightly negative impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market continued to rise, up 2.93%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

This week’s propylene oxide market also continued to rise, up 3.35% week on propylene small positive impact.

Epichlorohydrin was up in shock this week, up 2.99%, which had a little positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol rose continuously, with a weekly increase of 4.78%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, octanol market fluctuated steadily, with weekly increase of only 0.84%, which had little impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, experienced a sharp rise in the early period and a steady decline. This week, it was up in shock, with a weekly increase of 4.19%, which may still have a positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province remained stable this week, with a weekly decline of 0.54%, which had little impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province was stable and fluctuated after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 3.85% and a weekly amplitude of 4.49%, which had limited positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, on the whole, the international crude oil market has a positive support, and the price has been rising for many times, which has a certain supporting effect on propylene. However, the downstream operation rate is relatively high, propylene inventory is not much, and the recent shipment is still relatively smooth. Currently, there is a small increase in the downstream. However, the increase of propylene for several consecutive days still puts pressure on the downstream. It is expected that the price of propylene will stabilize after a small increase in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 14, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product in China, was 39000.00 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from the previous day.

market analysis

Product: the domestic power type premium product lithium iron phosphate is in weak and stable operation. Now the mainstream market price range is 36000-39000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton lower than the previous day. At present, the domestic power type lithium iron phosphate demand is weak, which leads to a slight decline in price, and the order quantity is difficult to increase. The domestic power type lithium iron phosphate has excess capacity, and the market grabs orders seriously, so the enterprises are forced to reduce price and let the profits go The price competition of lithium iron oxide is fierce, and the price basically hovers on the cost line.

Industry chain: the price of upstream lithium carbonate keeps falling in the near future, and the inventory is overstocked seriously. The manufacturer actively ships the product and leaves the single price below the cost. The cost of lithium iron phosphate is not well supported, which then declines. At present, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 43000-44000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 34000-39000 yuan / ton.

Industry: on May 13, the chemical industry index was 638, the same as yesterday, 37.20% lower than the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 6.69% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Future forecast

Iron lithium phosphate analysts believe that: in the short term, the weak operation of domestic power-driven high-grade lithium iron phosphate has the possibility of further price reduction. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate all over the country and analyzed by the analysts of lithium iron phosphate in the business. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)