1、 Price trend

On May 29, the tin commodity index was 70.25, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 29.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 63.91% from December 09, 2015′s lowest point of 42.86. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

In terms of futures, the overall price of Lunxi rose in shock this week, but the increase was limited. On the 25th, the price was slightly weakened due to the last week’s market drag, with a 0.98% increase as of Friday, 584 transactions, 16931 positions and 21 more. Shanghai tin 2007 contract fluctuated upward this week, closing at 134420 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 3940 yuan / ton, up about 3%.

This week, the domestic spot market rose after following the trend of Shanghai tin market. At the beginning of the week, the spot market weakened slightly due to the low price of Lunxi, and then the rising price of Shanghai tin led the domestic spot market to rise slightly. However, due to the limited downstream demand, the overall market transaction was relatively cold, and the spot market price followed the rise slightly, with a weekly increase of only 0.38%. In terms of premium and discount, it was relatively stable this week and kept around 3000-5000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which silver (1.70%), aluminum (1.56%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (0.93%) are the top three commodities. There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were zinc (- 0.65%), lead (- 0.26%) and nickel (- 0.21%). This week’s average was 0.22%.

The business club predicts that the favorable impact of the two sessions’ policy will further affect the metal market next week. Domestic industries will gradually step into the right track, and the construction will be gradually improved. The overall market environment is good, but the downstream demand has not recovered in the near future. It is expected that the spot market will be dominated by stable trend and fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price trend of TDI market is stable this week. The average price of East China market in this week is 11100.00 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.91%, compared with 11000.00 yuan / ton last weekend, down 12.37% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic TDI market was reorganized and operated. Towards the end of the month, the supplier continued to release good news. However, the downstream inquiry and purchase were weak, and there were also low price offers. The market was dominated by more supply and demand games, and the attitude of the operators was obviously different. There was little follow-up in the downstream, and the price settlement of each factory at the end of the month was more to be seen. As of the 29th, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets in East China market is 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is 11000 yuan / ton. At present, the North China market is relatively strong, the market atmosphere is relatively quiet, and the majority of them are cautious; the South China market is wide and volatile, the downstream inquiry is not hot, and the transaction is limited.

On the upstream side, the market of toluene is stable and rising this week. With the recovery of European and American economy, the global demand is expected to improve. The international crude oil price is higher, and the oil price is generally in a relatively high and volatile trend. Effective guidance is given to the toluene Market. As of the 29th day, the quotations of East China’s dealers are about 3650 yuan / ton, and the domestic average price of toluene is about 3640 yuan / ton, 1.11% higher than last week, and the domestic toluene market is expected to be stronger in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market is sorted out, and the monthly listing prices of the factory side are published one after another, which shows a strong market attitude. However, the supply and demand game in the market continues, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, and the follow-up is not good, and most of the enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the short-term TDI market may be consolidated upward and market news will be followed.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 1873 yuan / ton on May 25, 1856 yuan / ton on May 29, and the price fell 0.89% this week. On May 29, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 62.15, down 0.89 points from yesterday, 38.37% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 0.10% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on May 25 was 2166 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on May 29 was 2156 yuan / ton. This week, the price fell 0.46%. The diammonium phosphate commodity index on May 29 was 64.33, down 0.3 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, 37.53% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: the price of monoammonium phosphate fell slightly this week. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 1950 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: the price of diammonium phosphate fell slightly this week. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2150-2200 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton. 64% of mainstream diammonium in Gansu Province is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton. The first station quotation of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang Province is about 2450 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of raw phosphate rock is basically stable this week. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the primary and high-end areas is around 300-400 yuan / ton. This week, the market of phosphorus ore is not obvious. In addition, the market is weak in the recent traditional off-season, and the factory’s shipment volume is average. The domestic sulfur market is stable and rising. Recently, the port sulfur price has risen. However, there are not a large number of transactions in the market. The shippers in the port are not eager to ship, and the buyer also follows the market. The quotation of domestic refineries has been slightly adjusted.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are calcium carbide (7.39%), bisphenol A (6.99%) and ethylene (5.53%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are R134a (- 7.38%), acetic acid (- 5.49%) and propylene (- 4.60%). This week’s average was 0.18%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the current price of monoammonium phosphate fluctuates little, the demand is general, and the downstream purchase is not active. Diammonium phosphate Market is light, the focus is export, and the market competition is fierce. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will run smoothly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China over the weekend was 526.67 yuan / ton, up 1.28% in the week. On May 29, the sulfur commodity index was 28.90, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.17% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.06% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the trend of sulfur price is stable and rising. Refineries in various regions in China adjust their prices according to their own shipping conditions, and Sinopec’s solid-liquid sulfur in East China is increased by 20 yuan / ton at the same time; while Sinopec’s Yanshan Petrochemical in North China is stable, the prices of solid-liquid sulfur in other enterprises are increased by 10 yuan / ton at the same time; Sinopec’s quotation of liquid sulfur in Shandong is increased by 10 yuan / ton. The overall increase of market price is not large, and some enterprises have maintained stable operation.

In the downstream, the domestic demand for phosphate fertilizer is in the off-season, and the manufacturers mainly purchase on demand. There are still unclear factors in the export, and the current volume and price are temporarily stable. This week, the price trend of Monoammonium and diammonium in China has been lowered, the domestic market is light, the market demand is weak, and the enterprise mentality is general. In terms of sulfuric acid, the performance of domestic market areas is different, the market demand is poor, and the purchase on demand is expected to be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Future market forecast: sulfur analysts of the business association think that the quotation of domestic sulfur market will be raised this week, the factory and traders will purchase and replenish as needed, the overall market will be consolidated and wait-and-see, and it is expected that the trend of domestic sulfur market will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP market in the second half of May was strong, with different brand materials rising and falling. As of May 28, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders was about 7616.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Upstream, the domestic propylene market price rose steadily in the first half of May. Last month, the propylene price in Shandong remained stable again after a sharp rise and fall. Last weekend, the price of propylene fell slightly. On the 25th, the price of propylene fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. On the 26th, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 27th, it fell by 100-150 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6500-6600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 6500-6600 yuan / ton. Influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week. Now, the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. On Monday, 18th, the price rose significantly, and slightly fluctuated from 19th to 21st. On Friday, 22nd, the price was lowered, and closed on Monday. On the 26th, the crude oil slightly recovered, which has limited impact on the good of propylene. On the other hand, the cost of some downstream products is under pressure. By reducing production and stopping production, the operating rate has declined, the delivery and investment has become increasingly cold, and the pressure of the manufacturer’s shipment has increased, so it is expected that the price of propylene will still decline in recent days.

 
Although the upstream propylene price has fallen, it is still at a high level, which supports the cost end of PP fairly well. PP (brushed) rose slightly in the second half of May. In the first half of this month, the domestic PP market showed correction due to the cooling of speculation atmosphere in April. At present, the price tends to be rational and the market tends to be strong and volatile. The delivery situation of this month is good, and there is not much room for negotiation of the actual order near the end of the month. The operating rate of domestic production enterprises and social inventory have declined, and the port inventory has continued to decline, which is expected to provide some support for the price of polypropylene. At the end of the month, spot market transactions were relatively light.

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 28, the main quoted price of Z30S (fiber) for domestic producers and traders was about 7750.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.43% compared with the average price on May 18. At first glance, compared with the beginning of the month, the spot price of fiber PP in the first half of the month dropped by nearly 9%, which is actually a “retaliatory” drop in the speculation of fiber last month. In the second half of the month, the spot price is not at a low level. Although the demand for social health events is slowing down, in fact, the current price is stronger than before the hype. In the second half of May, the factory price of PP fiber material was generally adjusted slightly. Since 18th, the spot price has been stable, and on 25th, the price of PP fiber material was generally increased by about 50 yuan / ton.

In terms of melt blown material price, it has fallen down recently. As of May 28, the data of sample enterprises monitored by the business association showed that the average price of melt blown polypropylene of general private enterprise melt blown resin 1500 was about 23666.67 yuan / ton, a large drop compared with the beginning of the month. Foreign public health events tend to be ambiguous, and foreign trade masks are still in great demand. At present, some countries in Europe have relaxed the standards for the export of masks in China, which undoubtedly has a positive effect on the domestic melt blown materials. However, with the expansion of domestic production capacity and the continuous improvement of China’s prevention and control achievements, the overall price of melt blown PP is lower. In addition, the relevant departments have strengthened the standardization of the industry before, and the current production recovery of melt blown PP downstream is insufficient. It is expected that the price of melt blown PP in the future will continue to be adjusted in a narrow range.

Future forecast

PP analysts of the business club think: the domestic PP spot market rose and fell in the second half of May. The upstream propylene delivery pressure increased, and the price had a correction. But the overall level is still high, and the support for PP is acceptable. PP (drawing) price is the main, PP (fiber) price callback back to rationality. PP (melt blown) demand was affected and prices fell. At present, the inventory of two barrels of oil is smooth, and the willingness to stand up is obvious. At the end of the month, most businesses completed their tasks, went with the market, and there was not much room for negotiation. Downstream construction started to decline, and the mentality of high price goods is obvious, the demand follow-up is limited. It is expected that the PP market will be carefully sorted out in the near future, and it is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of the supply and demand side.

According to statistics of business agency, as of May 28, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 15333 yuan / ton, up 167 yuan / ton, up 1.10%, down 23.21%; nylon POY price reported 12720 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up 1.60%, down 25.61%; nylon FDY price reported 16250 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton, up 3.17%, down 23.89%. In May, the economic activities of many countries gradually recovered to boost market confidence, crude oil rose sharply, nylon raw material prices rebounded, and filament prices rose with raw materials.

Product may 1 – May 28 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 5320 5940 620 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 8533 9917 1384 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 10366 11566 1200 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 15750 16250 500 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 15166 15333 167 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 12520 12720 200 yuan / ton

The multinational economy gradually recovered, and crude oil prices continued to rise. As of May 27, WTI crude oil futures rose 73.66% monthly. But in late May, due to the tense trade relations between China and the United States, the increase of crude oil decreased, and there was a risk of falling back.

In the first half of May, the sharp rise of crude oil supported the raw material end of nylon filament strongly. At the same time, due to the shutdown and delayed recovery of some devices in the industrial chain, the short-term supply of caprolactam was tight, which stimulated the upstream and downstream to raise the price. The offer of caprolactam market was once pushed up by 10100-10300 yuan / ton for acceptance. However, with the return of the spot supply of cyclohexanone, the high price decreased, the market low price emerged, and the external quotation stabilized.

 
Due to the supply of raw materials, the price of PA6 continued a strong upward trend. It can be seen from the figure that PA6 and caprolactam have a strong correlation, with a similar upward trend in some periods. PA6 was boosted by the tight supply of caprolactam, but the actual transaction did not improve significantly. The upstream raw material supply will be supplemented, but there is a large driving force for the rise in the short term. In late May, China US trade relations were tense, and the market was cautious about the rise of oil price. In the later period, the rise of crude oil was weakened, the growth of derivative products was slow, the downstream demand was light, the supply of caprolactam gradually recovered, and the market returned to stability.

In May, the market price of nylon raw materials was generally raised, which led to the price increase of nylon filament manufacturers. However, the demand in the downstream did not improve greatly, and the driving force for continuous increase was insufficient. Due to the tense trade relations between China and the United States, crude oil may be sensitive to this situation, which does not rule out the possibility of falling back. Once the raw material cost support collapses, nylon filament is not immune. It is expected that the price of nylon filament will be stable and the price will be raised cautiously.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 27, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 9528 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 1.04%, compared with the beginning of May, down 22.95% year on year. Some viscose manufacturers are in the stage of production suspension, and the price remains at a high level. At the beginning of the month, the price generally falls, and at the end of the month, the price has picked up. The quotation of major manufacturers is 9200-9500 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the month, after the May 1st Festival, the market order is general, the demand for cotton linter is weak, and the weak viscose is down. With the completion of processing in most of the cashmere processing plants in Xinjiang, the output of cotton cashmere has been gradually reduced, and the downstream purchase of cashmere is not strong, some chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants have not yet started, and a small number of middlemen purchase, supporting the stability of the cotton cashmere Market. Due to the increase of freight after the festival and the stimulation of downstream orders, viscose generally fell 200-300 yuan / ton in the first ten days.

In late May, with the support of cottonseed oil, the price of cottonseed increased, but the processing of cotton linter was basically finished, and the cost had little impact. In some areas, chemical fiber factories and refined cotton factories returned to production, and a small amount of cotton linter was purchased, which stimulated the confidence of manufacturers in raising prices. At the end of the month, the price of cotton linter (Shandong industrial grade) was increased by about 100 yuan / ton in some areas, and the price was reported as 3500-3600 yuan / ton. At present, it is still difficult to deal in bulk, limiting the development of cotton linter market, and the market is still stable. The price of viscose in the current month is 9200-9800 yuan / ton, with general orders from manufacturers.

Downstream people cotton yarn passive, offer another step. As of May 27, the average price of 30s ring spun human cotton yarn was 14100 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton, or 4.73% compared with the beginning of the month. The 30s cotton yarn manufacturer reported 12800-15500 yuan / ton. The order of human cotton yarn was general, and the price had downward pressure. However, in the near future, the cost support is strong, and the price of human cotton yarn is flat at the end of the month, entering a new stable stage. It is worth noting that since 2020, there is almost no rebound in the price of rayon manufacturers, and they have been playing defensive war.

To sum up, the viscose industry chain has sufficient supply, limited order recovery, and stable operation after basic decline. It is expected that the short-term market adjustment will not be strong, and the strategy of rayon manufacturers will remain unchanged, maintaining stable quotation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 27, pet water bottle manufacturers had quoted 5700.00 yuan / ton, and the main negotiation price of the spot was 5550-5700 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing was cautious, and the pet market was running smoothly.

2、 Cause analysis

The domestic pet market is stable, while the polyester bottle Market in South China is flat. The main negotiated price of the spot market is 5550-5650 yuan / ton. The polyester bottle Market in East China is narrow and weak. Now, the main manufacturers offer around 5650-5700 yuan / ton, which is just in need of purchasing. At present, the price of Xiamen Tenglong is 5700, Guangdong Taibao 5750 yuan / ton, Zhuhai China Resources 5800 yuan / ton, Zhejiang wankai 5700 yuan / ton, Yizheng Chemical fiber 5700 yuan / ton.

PTA raw materials run smoothly, pet cost support is weak, price fluctuation is not big, trading is light, wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

On May 26, the commodity price index BPI was 730 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, down 28.36% compared with the highest point 1019 (2012-04-10) in the cycle, and up 10.61% compared with the lowest point 660 on February 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream is cautious, just need to purchase, and the pet market is stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by PET major manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by PET analysts in business, for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on May 27, according to the comprehensive quotation of the sample enterprises of the business agency, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 11000 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than the price two weeks ago (on April 13), or 2%, and 1100 yuan / ton higher than the price at the beginning of April (on April 1), or more than 10%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the overall domestic n-propanol is still in high and stable operation, the manufacturer’s factory quotation is relatively stable, the market inventory in some regions is relatively low, and the overall quotation has been increased in recent two weeks due to regional logistics and other factors. Nanjing area: the manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. has normal operation of n-propanol production plant. At present, the price of n-propanol is 9800 yuan / ton (ex warehouse price of cash purified water), which is basically the same as that in early May. Shandong region: dealers’ quotation fluctuates according to their own inventory and sales volume. The overall price is higher than 2 weeks ago.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of n-propanol in China on May 27, 2020:

Enterprise name price type price (yuan / ton including tax) product remarks place of origin time

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. market price 10600 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic May 27, 2020

Jinan angxin Chemical Co., Ltd. market price 10600 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic May 27, 2020

Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11300 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic made on May 27, 2020

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. market price 10600 yuan / ton n-propanol content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; domestic May 27, 2020

Industrial chain: on May 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend remained unchanged. The daily upward trend was 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, the price finally began to stabilize. The weekend price slightly declined. On 25, the price of propylene fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. Today, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6670-6950 yuan / ton, and the main flow price is about 6700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency: since the second quarter, the domestic market of n-propanol driven by the surge of isopropanol is also rising. At present, the market of isopropanol is not obvious. It is predicted that the support for the market of n-propanol in June is insufficient, so it is difficult to maintain the high-level operation due to the downstream demand of n-propanol itself. It is expected that the market of n-propanol in the future will slow down.

According to the data of business agency, as of May 27, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13360 yuan / ton, up 4.27% from 12813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1).

With the overall expansion of the resumption of production, domestic and foreign demand for aluminum is stable, and there is no significant change. A small number of enterprises have increased within the week of commencement due to their own scheduling reasons. Supply and demand improved in May, and domestic social inventory continued to move down. On May 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 979000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 79000 tons.

At present, the recent contract price of aluminum in the futures market is higher than the forward contract price, and the futures market is expected to be short, which is mainly based on the poor expectation of overseas prospects and the consideration of import and export factors. On the one hand, the price of foreign aluminum (LEM) is relatively low, and the import window is open; on the other hand, the downstream aluminum exports are greatly affected by the foreign environment.

The fundamentals of supply and demand in the domestic market have been effectively improved. In the short term, the aluminum price is relatively strong, and in the later period, the operation is mainly stable. Business analysts predict that the monthly fluctuation operation is mainly in the range of 13100-13500 yuan / ton.