According to cnbc.com on April 1, Edward bell, an analyst with Emirates NBD, said that without a diplomatic breakthrough, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia could last until the end of 2020.

The failure of OPEC to reach an agreement led to a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia in the global outbreak crisis, with oil prices plummeting more than 60% since the beginning of the year.

Brent crude oil futures in Asia fell 5.01 percent to $25.03 late Wednesday. US crude oil futures fell 1.03% to $20.27.

Bell told CNBC’s capital connect show that increasing production could help Saudi Arabia sustain its oil revenues in the face of low oil prices. If Russia, a non OPEC member, or OPEC member states decide to call for some form of production reduction, the oil market could resume its performance in the past few years.

He added that if Saudi Arabia wanted to expand its position as the world’s major oil supplier, it would cause “great pain” to marginal producers. “It will have to try to squeeze it out of the oil market as permanently as possible.”

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market trend of domestic PA66 market in March was weak, and the price was mostly reduced. As of April 1, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 21850.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.89% compared with the average price at the beginning of March.

Analysis of influencing factors:

In March, the market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 was weak and expanded. In the first ten days of the month, the price of adipic acid kept a narrow fluctuation and was mainly adjusted downward. At the end of the month, the price of adipic acid went down sharply due to the sharp decrease of settlement price by the manufacturer and the listing price in April. At present, the market is still generally affected by public health events, supply and demand are not strong, and transaction is frozen. The price of adipic acid has been at a low level in the past decade, and the main driving force for the sharp decline of adipic acid price is the overstock of inventory and the lack of demand. On the cost side, the continuous decline of pure benzene price makes the adipic acid Market worse. However, the downstream demand is still not improved, and the operating rate remains at a historical low throughout the month. In addition, with the increase of social inventory pressure and sharp decline of external demand, it is difficult to find a breakthrough in adipic acid export. The price of adipic acid is expected to remain weak in the short term;

This month, PA66 market atmosphere in the context of imbalance between supply and demand more cold, the market is more negative. In terms of supply, PA66 has sufficient spot performance, and logistics is no longer a resistance. However, the low level of starting load of downstream plants is the hard injury of demand this month. The on-site trading is just in need, with few trading information and no large-scale stock.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe: in March, the domestic PA66 market continued to adjust its weak position. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream declined significantly, which gave poor support to the cost side of PA66. The return rate of downstream factories needs to be improved. The replenishment operation is rigid and the demand is very limited. The market atmosphere is oversupplied, and the industry has insufficient confidence in the future market. It is expected that PA66 market will not improve in the short term.

Since October 2019, the chemical market has been declining continuously, especially in 2020, it is like riding a roller coaster, falling out of a “new height” for three consecutive months. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the chemical industry index fell 96 points in March, 621 points on March 31, 14 points lower than that on March 30, 38.88% lower than the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 3.50% higher than the lowest point 600 (Note: WTI crude oil 26.7 in January 2016). The chemical market swoops down, but the current chemical market has not reached the bottom. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), a bulk commodity data provider under the business treasure of netsheng, according to the price monitoring of business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, compared with that in February, there are 4 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (55.64%) , formic acid (20.51%), ammonium chloride (20.48%).

A total of 59 goods fell month on month, an increase of 11 compared with February. There are 46 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, an increase of 19 kinds compared with February, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). The average rise and fall in March was – 8.47%, compared with the average rise and fall of – 2.53% in February, and the fall volume and decline of the whole chemical products in March further increased.

For the chemical market, March is undoubtedly the most miserable month. On the one hand, the negotiation of Russia’s crude oil production reduction broke down, which caused the crude oil to plummet overnight, with the WTI crude oil dropping as much as 56.51% in the whole March; on the other hand, the overseas public health events continued to spread, with 840000 people in nearly 200 countries confirmed and no turning point yet. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the chemical market recorded its biggest monthly decline in a decade in March, down 16.13%.

Three segments continue to create myth for a better product

From the perspective of sub sectors, the fertilizer sector, fluorine chemical raw materials and a few pharmaceutical raw materials continued to maintain the overall upward momentum in March, among which the raw materials trend of each industrial chain is more eye-catching. Isopropanol is unique. Due to the demand of overseas disinfection market, the export of isopropanol increased significantly, up 57.4% in a single month. The details are as follows:

1. The fertilizer sector maintained a good momentum in March. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 7 rising commodities and 2 falling commodities in the price up and down list of chemical fertilizer in March 2020. The main rising commodities are ammonium chloride (20.48%), liquid ammonia (14.20%), monoammonium phosphate (4.52%); the main falling commodities are ammonium nitrate (- 2.94%) and urea (- 1.90%). In March, the fertilizer sector was up or down 4.7%. Demand: with the increase of agricultural seasonal demand, in this year’s spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation stage, the chemical fertilizer market is the first to lead the chemical industry, and with the support of the state’s high-speed and free policies, the industrial demand after the festival has also maintained a good momentum, but dropped to a certain extent year on year. Supply: in March, the operating rate of chemical fertilizer enterprises gradually increased, the overall supply increased, and the inventory pressure was large. In terms of import and export, according to the data released by the national customs, the import and export volume of chemical fertilizer in the first two months has both declined. The international situation is not optimistic, which leads to the lack of market confidence and has a negative impact on the import and export. In general, the chemical fertilizer sector went up for a decent period in March, but in April, affected by the international and domestic supply and demand situation, the export will also die, and the chemical fertilizer products will go up Or it will be suspended, with minor shocks in April.

2. Fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, as the raw materials of fluorine chemical industry, generally rose first and then fell in March. At the initial stage, they continued the sharp rise in February. Under the situation of tight market supply, fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose sharply, with the increase of 18% and 11% respectively. After the resumption of production in late March, with the rise of temperature, fluorite enterprises in the North continued to resume work The supply of stone enterprises increased, and the price of fluorite with sufficient supply within the site fell. However, the demand of terminal refrigeration industry has declined sharply. Recently, the air conditioning industry is in a recession. There is strong resistance to high price raw materials. Manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are not active in purchasing, which reflects serious losses and accelerates the plunge of raw materials.

3. Since March, due to the increasing demand of overseas disinfectant Market, isopropanol has soared after entering the middle of March. According to the monitoring data of business agency, isopropanol in East China was offered at 6025 yuan / ton on March 13 and 10233.3 yuan / ton on March 31, with an overall increase of 55.64% and an amplitude of 69.85% in March. With the spread of the overseas epidemic, it is expected that the use of disinfectants will not decrease from April to May. At present, the order is scheduled to the middle of April, and the supply of disinfectants in the late April in East China has improved. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of isopropanol in Shandong is 10000-12000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 10000-15000 yuan / ton. The current market still has some conflicts with the high price, so we should continue to pay attention to the country The development of international epidemic situation and the flow of market resources in the later stage.

The chemical market has been devastated by the collapse of crude oil

The price of crude oil will determine the focus of petrochemical industry. In March, the chemical industry market with crude oil plummeting was devastated, with all-round green. Petrochemical products such as aromatics industry chain, propylene industry chain, styrene industry chain and phenol ketone industry chain fell sharply, setting a new record for five years and ten years. As shown in the figure below:

The sharp decline of domestic chemical market in March is mainly due to the sudden drop of crude oil and the spread of public events, and domestic demand is not getting better. Especially, aromatics and benzene in the downstream of crude oil declined significantly. Pure benzene fell 49.82% in March, ranking first. In order to hedge losses and reduce costs as soon as possible, the enterprise operating rate picked up in March, making domestic supply under the condition that demand is not getting better Further increase, coupled with the impact of the arrival of low-cost pure benzene outside Shanghai, made the domestic market drop again and again. The decline of pure benzene has driven the whole industrial chain of crude benzene, hydrobenzene, toluene, xylene, styrene, phenol, etc. At present, market confidence is insufficient, various stimulus policies have not formed a virtuous circle, and the market is still bearish.

Looking forward to the future market, business and social chemical analysts believe that since February 2020, the whole market has been broken by public health events, breaking the domestic market in the first quarter and breaking the overseas market in the second quarter. At present, there are still two points to pay attention to: first, the negotiation on crude oil among Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States. According to relevant reports, the global oil storage space will be filled up in six weeks, which will force the unprecedented large-scale crude oil production capacity to close. In the face of the current demand downturn, even if production reduction and price protection are achieved, it will also recover in the short term, which is hard to say good for the medium and long term, and the pressure on energy and chemical products will continue; second It is the progress of the overseas epidemic, whether the U.S. can have a turning point at the end of April, the number of confirmed cases in India after “21 days”, etc. at present, domestic demand is recovering, but the international situation has greater pressure on the domestic backlash, which is equivalent to pressing the tentative key for the export market of the terminal. To sum up, the long-term recovery of the market still depends on the development of overseas public health events. Only when the events are controlled can the demand recover slowly, and the transaction volume transmitted to the entire industrial chain will increase. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the chemical industry index is 614 points at present. In March, the chemical industry index is down 96 points, which is still far from the lowest point of 600 points on January 31, 2016. According to the current situation, the chemical industry market continues to bottom in April. The business agency expects the chemical industry index to reach 570 points, a new low in ten years.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on March 31, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 9500-10200 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 8500-9000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in March, the domestic market of n-propanol rose slightly and then recovered. In March, the market of n-propanol was affected by various factors such as different inventory and limited transportation and logistics in various regions, and the market price was offered differently. On the 4th, the average price of market comprehensive offer was increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, among which the adjustment range of distribution quotation in upper Haiti was around 200-400 yuan / ton. On the 10th, the market in Shandong began to be small The price of n-propanol in Shandong increased by 100 yuan / ton. Since the end of March, the market price of domestic n-propanol in Shandong Province has dropped slightly, and the barrel price is about 9500-10000 yuan / ton; the low end of bulk water is 9000 yuan / ton. The market in Shanghai is stable. The quotation of imported n-propanol is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and the low-end quotation is 10500 yuan / ton. The market in Nanjing area is stable. The n-propanol plant of Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory price of n-propanol is around 8500 yuan / ton (purified water). In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industrial chain: in March, the propylene market fluctuated. On the 1st and 2nd, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the 3rd and 4th, most enterprises generally rose. On the 5th, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the 10th, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the 19th, the price dropped all the way. From the 20th, the price remained stable. On the 24th, the price began to rise. 28 29 two days later, the market price of propylene in Shandong fell sharply, down 200-300 yuan / ton per day. At present, the market turnover is 5300-5800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5300 yuan / ton. Due to the low production and inventory of propylene before, the early decline was not significant, and the late follow-up trend was also obvious, but it rose at the beginning of the 24th, and then fell again from the 28th. At the beginning of April, more propylene manufacturers may start operation, and the loss of downstream butanol and octanol is large, and PP futures will decline significantly, so it is expected that propylene prices will continue to explore in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, at present, the market of n-propanol is limited in domestic demand, and there is little competition in the supply and demand game. It is expected that the follow-up market will run steadily.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market continued its previous weak trend and expanded in March, with a large reduction in spot prices. As of April 1, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 10850.00 yuan / ton, 14.90% lower than the average price at the beginning of March.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in all upstream aspects of BS, styrene market dropped significantly in March. Domestic styrene prices fell in the first half of the month due to bad news from crude oil chemical industry. To the second half of the month is directly reflected in the weak trend of the cost side dragging down the price of styrene. Near the end of the month, panic increased in Europe and the United States, and prices in overseas markets fell sharply. The price gap between regions has been widened, there is room for arbitrage, and there are some hedging operations in China, which aggravates the pressure on the basis of weak market. Although domestic supply fell at the end of the month, both factory and port inventories are expected to decline. However, the market is not optimistic about the future due to the biased bearish intention and the impact of overseas health events. Although there are some bottoming phenomena, the price decline cannot be prevented;

In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry. In addition, new production capacity has been added in the near future, which made the site bearish. The downstream return to work rate is lower than that before the festival, or even the load reduction occurs at the end of the month. Just a few orders are needed for goods preparation, and it is difficult to improve in a short time due to the shrinking demand. At present, the market is lack of positive boost, and the mentality of the industry is low. It is expected that the market of acrylonitrile will not improve in the near future;

In March, the domestic butadiene market continued a weak downward trend, and macro negative news such as the sharp drop in crude oil led to the cautious attitude of domestic businesses. The downturn in downstream enquiries dragged down the pressure on supplier prices, and the overall market focus continued to decline. In addition, European market supply pressure, the downstream rubber industry inventory high, outside the market is not lack of low price news. At present, the domestic butadiene spot supply is abundant, but the export situation of downstream products market is not good, and the high inventory of synthetic rubber industry in the middle end of the industrial chain is under pressure; moreover, in the near future, the European butadiene supply is abundant, and the market is full of low-cost news, which obviously drags the mentality of domestic merchants. At the same time, the news of low price transaction spread in the domestic market, dragging the overall decline of butadiene market. The supply and demand fundamentals of internal and external market are hard to be supported by good news in the short term. The short-term domestic butadiene market continues the weak downward trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the guidance of internal and external transaction news;

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS market fell in March, and the decline in various brands of spot goods increased. Cost side of the upstream three materials are not good in the near future, the support for the cost side is weak. At present, the spot supply of ABS is relatively sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak. The market is dominated by negative factors, and the external news is short, so the confidence of merchants is hit and they actively reduce the price of goods. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to weaken in the near future.

At March 31, the rare earth index was 337, unchanged from yesterday, 66.30% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.35% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 367500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 640000 yuan / ton respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 267000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 1795000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 310000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 287500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 337000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy decreased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1795000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of rare earth in the rare earth market has fallen, the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market has increased, and the import source of heavy rare earth is tight. Myanmar has unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers continue to resume work, the domestic supply has increased, and the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth continues to fall. In recent years, the demand for permanent magnet has declined, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has slightly declined, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth has weakened in recent years, and some market prices have continued to decline. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand declined, and some rare earth prices fell.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the market supply of heavy rare earth has increased, and the market price has dropped slightly.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market to be normal in the near future, and the downstream demand to be weakened. But recently, Lynas group, the largest rare earth producer outside China, Australia’s rare earth miner, is the largest in the world On March 31, Corp said it would follow the Malaysian government’s order to extend the closure time of Malaysian factories for two weeks to April 14, and expected the momentum of the rebound of rare earth market prices in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on March 1, 2020, the reference price of 85% formic acid purified water was 1950 yuan / ton. As of March 31, the reference price was 2350 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 20.51% in October. In October, the formic acid market showed an overall upward trend.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in March, the domestic industrial grade formic acid market rose as a whole, and the market gradually improved. In the first ten days of March, due to the impact of the epidemic, the formic acid market was temporarily in the non start state, and the dealers and manufacturers’ external quotation prices remained stable, most of which were in a wait-and-see state. In the middle of March, the formic acid market changed from stable to rising, and the overall formic acid market price showed a trend of fluctuation and rising. The inventory of some enterprises was tight, and the dealers and manufacturers slightly increased their quotations, with an increase of 50-300 yuan / ton. Formic acid Market Prices are high. In the last ten days of March, the rising trend has not been changed, and the price of enterprises has been raised by different degrees, but most of them have risen to around 2350 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s output is less, the market supply is in short supply, and some dealers report that the inventory is not sufficient. At present, the formic acid market has risen steadily, and some of them are still in a rising mentality. The market supply is tight, which has a good support for the formic acid market.

Industrial chain: the domestic liquid ammonia Market of the upstream products of formic acid fluctuated in March, and the overall price rose and fell with each other, ranging from 50-300 yuan / ton; the domestic caustic soda market also showed a stable trend in October, and most of the downstream products were purchased on demand. The upstream raw material support is good, and the downstream leather and pesticide industry demand is normal.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid analyst of the business agency, the domestic formic acid market is in good condition at present, the raw materials support the formic acid market well, and the market supply is still in short supply. Under the condition of unchanged supply, the market price of formic acid may remain high in April.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s bulk data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on March 29 was 5333.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the 23 day of the beginning of the week. On March 22, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.58, which was flat compared with yesterday, and increased by 13.93% compared with the same period last year. On March 29, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.90% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) / P >

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the phosphoric acid market is light and stable, the market trading is OK, there are not many new orders, and the market is weak. Affected by foreign public health events, the export situation is not good, domestic terminal demand is average, enterprises’ wait-and-see mentality is rising, and some enterprises slightly reduce their quotations. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of March 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan region was about 4700-5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi region was about 5350 yuan / ton, that of Beijing region was about 5400 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was mostly about 4700-5700 / ton. The market was generally weak and stable.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use. At present, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased, the market has increased, and the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light. The phosphate Market is not well traded and the demand starts slowly,

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society, the current phosphoric acid market is not volatile, with a slight decrease in some areas and a weak and stable market. The phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, this week’s decline of pure benzene continued last week. Last week’s price of pure benzene was 3500-4000 yuan / ton (average price 3800 yuan / ton); this week’s price of pure benzene was 2850-3700 yuan / ton (average price 2940 yuan / ton), down 860 yuan / ton from last week, down 22.63%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week, the price focus of pure benzene has shifted sharply again. Continuing the situation last week, Sinopec continued to fall for two consecutive times this week, with the listing price of pure benzene reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 2900 yuan / ton. The fundamental contradiction of pure benzene is gradually increasing. Raw materials: the crude oil price is low, the price of pure benzene in the external market continues to fall, the arbitrage window in the internal and external market opens, and the arrival volume of imported pure benzene increases. In terms of downstream demand: the overall downstream starting load this week shows a downward trend, with poor terminal demand. Port inventory: this week’s port inventory is significantly higher than last week’s, and refinery inventory is high. Multiple negative effects, this week pure benzene fell endlessly.

3. Outside: compared with March 20, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell by 105.33 USD / ton, or 24.88%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell by 95.5 USD / ton, or 22.21%. At present, the arbitrage of internal and external market is open, and the arrival volume is increased, hitting the domestic pure benzene market.

3. Crude oil: this week, the oil price was in the bottom shock. Oil prices rallied in the middle of the week in favor of a massive US economic stimulus plan. But the week was still down, with concerns that demand for oil continued to be negative. Compared with March 20, Brent fell 16.86% and WTI fell 2.93% this week. Compared with February 28, 2020, Brent fell 58.21% and WTI fell 44.04% this month. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 68.4% and WTI by 58.61%.

4. Downstream industry: the overall operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased this week.

The operation rate of styrene plant in China has been reduced, the domestic supply has been reduced, and the situation of arrival at the port has been reduced compared with that in the earlier stage. This week, the styrene market price fell continuously, and most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales. Friday’s price was 4716.67 yuan / ton, down 6.29% from last week and 44.29% from the same period last year.

This week, the market price of aniline was stable, individual enterprises shut down their equipment, and the supply and demand were balanced. On Friday, the price in Shandong is 5900 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing is 6150 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: crude oil fundamentals are weak. Although the United States proposed economic stimulus plan, overseas health events are not optimistic. Oil prices continue to be under pressure.

2. Market: the downstream operating rate has declined, and the demand for pure benzene is difficult to improve. The low price of hydrogenated benzene impacts the pure benzene market. In addition, the pure benzene plant is willing to increase the load, so the inventory pressure will increase.

The contradiction between supply and demand has increased, the short-term market is difficult to get a substantial improvement, and the price of pure benzene is still possible to be lowered.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of propylene oxide fell this week, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. Recently, the price of raw materials has risen, the cost of propylene oxide plant has been under pressure, and the market supply has increased, but the downstream terminal demand is not enough to follow up, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. As of the 27th, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 8166.67 yuan / ton, down 2.78% compared with the beginning of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it was down 19.14%. On the 27th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 8200 yuan / ton. On July 27, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China was around 8000-8100 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was around 7850-8100 yuan / ton, and that in South China was around 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream (3.23-3.27) rose by 3.17% this week. On the 27th, the market turnover was 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 5900 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, the international crude oil prices went up and down sharply: on the 16th, the prices fell again, on the 17th, on the 18th, and on the 19th, the prices rose slightly. On the 20th, the crude oil prices rose significantly, on the 23rd, and on the 24th, the crude oil prices rose again, and on the 25th and 26th, the prices fluctuated slightly. Due to the low production and inventory of propylene before, the decline in the early period was not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later period was also obvious, but it began to rise on the 24th, with a steady rise. At present, there are many propylene manufacturers stopping production and maintenance, and the inventory pressure is small. At the beginning of April, there may be more manufacturers starting operation, but the downstream butanol and octanol losses are large, and the PP futures will decline significantly. It is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in recent days, and may decline in the later period. 27, downstream soft foam polyether, market range finishing, downstream buying is still insufficient. 27, downstream rigid foam polyether, market weak consolidation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw materials has increased recently, and the cost pressure of propylene oxide has increased, but the downstream digestion has not been followed up. Under the double attack, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by weak finishing, and more attention should be paid to the change of the price of raw materials and the operating rate of the plant.