1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business associations, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) rose rapidly in the first ten days of April after a slight fall, which was 5239 yuan / ton on April 1; the ten day high price on April 10, which was 5957 yuan / ton, increased by 13.71%; the ten day low price on April 2, which was 5185 yuan / ton, with a ten day amplitude of 14.90%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock last month, and dropped sharply again at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price of propylene increased by 100 yuan / ton every day. Today, it increased by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to 5900-6100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after the sharp fluctuation of the price on February 2. Now, many countries have introduced production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. But on the other hand, the production reduction is not up to the expectation, so the pulling effect of propylene will be weakened.

In this ten day, PP spot rose sharply after stabilizing, with a 10 day increase of 11.45%, and this week’s increase of 14.36%. Polypropylene futures market continued to rise significantly, and there were trading limits, which also had a great positive impact on propylene.

This ten day acrylic acid market fell in shock, falling 6.22% in ten day, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

In this ten day period, the market of propylene oxide rebounded after the decline, with a ten day drop of 1.72% and a ten day amplitude of 6.03%, eliminating part of the negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin was stable in this ten day period, down 1.48%, with little impact on propylene.

In this ten day period, the price of domestic n-butanol rose after a slight decline, with a rise of 3.44% in ten day period and 5.04% in weekly period, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

This ten day octanol market fell after the correction, ten day increase of 0.32%, ten day amplitude of 4.28%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise steadily in April, with an increase of 11.11% in ten days, which still had a great positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in Shandong Province fell in this ten day period and then recovered, with a ten day drop of 1.86% and a ten day amplitude of 7.11%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong Province has recovered continuously after a slight decline in this ten day period, with an increase of 9.32% and an amplitude of 15.79%, which has a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in a comprehensive view, recently affected by the international crude oil market, the agreement on production reduction was initially reached, although it did not fully achieve the expected effect, it still had a certain pull up effect on propylene. However, PP futures in the lower reaches rose significantly, showing a trend of fluctuation. Most of the other downstream markets are also ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. It is expected that the price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days, but the increase range and time are greatly affected by crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on April 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated in a small fluctuation. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore at the initial high end was around 330-420 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole remained low and stable, and the market was mostly in a state of consolidation. New orders in the market were generally closed, and the on-site construction continued to improve slowly. At present, large-scale mining enterprises in Guizhou and other places offer stable prices. In Guizhou, 28% of the grade phosphate rock plants offer 320-340 yuan / ton; 30% of the grade phosphate rock plants offer 340-370 yuan / ton. Hubei area: 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard quotation is about 380-410 yuan / ton; 30% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard quotation is about 430-440 yuan / ton, of which, the factory quotation of 28% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 390 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 30% phosphate rock in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 430 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car plate is about 270-320 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of 29% phosphate ore in Yunnan is about 320 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: since April, the yellow phosphorus market has been in weak and stable operation. After the festival, the market trading has improved. There are many replenishment orders. Some traders have a large number of new orders. The market supply is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is relatively firm. Currently, the net phosphorus ex factory acceptance transaction in Yunnan Province refers to 15800-16200 yuan / ton. Phosphoric acid market weak slightly downward finishing operation, the current market trading situation is general.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the inquiry of downstream products of phosphate rock has not been significantly improved in recent days. The overall market trend is weak, and it is expected that the market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Ammonium phosphate rose sharply in the first quarter, ushering in the peak season of the year. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate on January 1 was 1906 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate on March 31 was 2083 yuan / ton. The overall price of powdered monoammonium phosphate rose 9.27% in the first quarter, with the highest increase of 11.89%. The lowest price in the quarter is 1890 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2133 yuan / ton.

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 31 was 2225 yuan / ton. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. The lowest price in the quarter is 2200 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 2225 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: in January, the market of monoammonium phosphate was weak, and the price fell steadily. The demand side is still weak, and the downstream purchases on demand. The transportation difficulty in many places leads to the increase of freight, and the overall price fluctuates little. In February, the shipment of monoammonium phosphate was large, the transportation gradually recovered, and the downstream procurement was active. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have increased the rate of resumption of work, which has promoted the price of monoammonium phosphate to rise, and the market is oriented well. In March, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell back after a substantial increase, and the rate of enterprises returning to work was 62%. The fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales, the price of raw sulfur keeps rising, and the downstream demand is increasing. In the later stage, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have sufficient stock and weak demand.

Diammonium: in January, the price of diammonium phosphate raw materials was low, the follow-up demand was weak, the price rise was blocked, and the transportation in many places was not smooth. Diammonium phosphate keeps stable operation, and the operating rate of the enterprise is about 50%. In February, diammonium phosphate remained stable without any sign of rising. Downstream traders mainly digested inventory. Market supply is strong and demand is weak, and downstream enthusiasm is poor. In March, the price of diammonium phosphate rose, and Hubei enterprises resumed production successively, with a return rate of 61%. The price tends to be stable after rising. The enterprise’s operating rate keeps rising, the spot supply is sufficient, and the number of new downstream purchase orders decreases.

Industrial chain: raw sulfur rose by 24.50% in the first quarter. In January, the domestic sulfur market was weak, the port inventory was high, the consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the market, the main thing was to wait and see, and the price was weak and stable. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the downstream demand performance is low. In February, the domestic sulfur market was relatively strong and the domestic price was up, but the downstream construction was low, the port inventory was still high and the consumption was slow, there was no information guidance in the field, and the main thing was to watch carefully. In March, the domestic sulfur market was strong. In the early stage, with the successive resumption of downstream factories and the improvement of road transportation, major production units in various regions have increased their performance to varying degrees.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 23 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector in the first quarter of 2020, including 10 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 11.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (57.44%), ammonium chloride (24.63%) and sulfur (24.50%). There are 59 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 44 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 51.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were pure benzene (- 54.08%), propane (- 47.22%) and crude benzene (- 45.56%). This quarter’s average up or down was – 10.65%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that in the first quarter of spring ploughing season, the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, fertilizer rose together. The price of ammonium phosphate rose because of the sharp rise in raw materials and the strong demand for downstream compound fertilizer. It is expected that the fertilizer market will weaken in the second quarter, and the stable trend of ammonium phosphate market will prevail. It is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spandex market rebounded slightly this week, with the market average price of 40d specification at 31900 yuan / ton as of April 9, up 1.27% on a weekly basis and down 11.63% on a year-on-year basis.

Mainstream price statistics of spandex market in recent 7 days (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 36000-37000 34000-35000 28000-29000

Shandong 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29500

Fujian 37000-38000 34500-35500 28500-29500

Jiangsu 36000-38000 34000-35000 28000-29000

Domestic spandex manufacturers increased steadily, with sufficient supply. Due to the fair demand for end port cover ear belt, tight supply of rough denier models, the price increased substantially, which led to the increase of other specifications such as 40d. This week, the price of 40d specification of mainstream factories increased by 1000 yuan / ton. However, due to the lack of prudence in follow-up of other actual needs, the market view atmosphere is relatively strong, and the actual single transaction volume is discussed in detail. Among them, 36000-37000 yuan / ton is the reference for mainstream negotiation of 20d spandex in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 34000-35000 yuan / ton is the reference for mainstream negotiation of 30d spandex; 28000-29000 yuan / ton is the reference for mainstream negotiation of 40d spandex, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name address capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

There is no restart plan for the parking of Shanxi 3D Hongdong 5

Jiaxing Xiaoxing Zhejiang Jiaxing 12 small line parking

Hangzhou Sanlong, Zhejiang Hangzhou 6 phase II plant load is not high

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical Ningxia Yinchuan 9.2 unit load is not high

Henan Nenghua Hebi 6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang MEK Xinjiang Korla 5 unit is not high

The raw material PTMEG market is in weak operation, the atmosphere of real order buying is light, the pressure of supplier’s delivery is increasing, and the negotiation of narrow margin is narrow. At present, the main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of real order is 14200-15000 yuan / ton. Pure MDI operates in a weak position and a weak position, buying gas is weak, and the delivery and investment is average. Under the pressure of the supplier’s delivery, the delivery negotiation continues to be low. In South China, the quotation is 13800-14500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel, and the quotation is 13800-14500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrel.

All downstream spandex factories are cautious about raw materials and demand follow-up, and have a strong atmosphere of market outlook, and have a detailed discussion on the actual single transaction. In Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province, the construction started at a low level, with 30-50% of the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang area, the market order follow-up was insufficient, with 50-60% of the start-up level; in Fujian area, the market started cautiously, with 30-40% of the lace and about 60% of the warp knitting; in Guangdong, the enterprises started cautiously, with 40-50% of the round machine market.

On the whole, the price trend at the cost end is light and stable, and the support performance is generally good. In the downstream terminal market, the materials used for the ear belt of respirators have led to the rise of some specifications, but in general, the usage of the respirators is not large, the spandex model is 40d / 140d or above, and other textile fields are not in good mood to receive orders, and the actual demand is poor, so all parties should be cautious to see that the market just needs to purchase. Business analysts believe that due to the decline in textile terminal demand, the spandex industry as a whole is expected to bear pressure, and the rebound space will be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 626.67 yuan / ton, down 4.08% compared with 653.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 44.71% compared with last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market performance is slightly flat. In terms of external market, the spot supply is tight and the price is on the high side, with limited support in Hong Kong. This week’s sulfur quotation was weak and lowered, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high and the intention price was low, the spring ploughing fertilizer was in the closing stage, the later stage of fertilizer export was not clear, the industry had different judgments on the future market, the site was more wait-and-see mentality, the refineries in each region within the week adjusted their quotation according to their own shipping situation. As of March 3, Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in East China is 580-680 yuan / ton, and that for liquid sulfur is 510-630 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in North China is 530-570 yuan / ton, and that for liquid sulfur is 400-450 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in Shandong is 630-650 yuan / ton, and that for liquid sulfur is 410-460 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the aspect of downstream sulfuric acid, the domestic market has recovered as a whole, and the sulfuric acid price has risen. At present, the overall supply of sulfuric acid plants in Shandong Province has been reduced, and the prices of enterprises have been adjusted upward. In April, the overhaul of acid enterprises was relatively centralized, the supply side was significantly reduced, and the acid price was intended to drive the market upward. The main downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been in the process of completion, and the demand has not been greatly boosted. In addition, the cost end support is still weak, and the upward space of sulfuric acid market is limited. It is expected that the acid market will be operated in a narrow range in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business agency, at present, the demand for phosphate fertilizer is weakening, and the enthusiasm of downstream plants to enter the market is not high. Refineries in various regions are adjusting downward in the week, and the inventory of ports is high. Most of the operators wait and see the market. It is expected that the sulfur market will be light and stable in the later period, waiting for the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price trend of TDI market this week was stable and down. The average market price in East China at the weekend was 9933.33 yuan / ton, down 3.25% in the week compared with 10266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 33.03% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic TDI market fell. At present, the recovery of demand is not optimistic. Due to the impact of public health events, foreign trade orders are cancelled or postponed in large quantities, TDI factory’s finished product inventory remains high, the downstream production and sales are not smooth, the demand for raw materials is limited, the enthusiasm for inquiry is not high, and the pressure on the manufacturer to ship is high. Under the condition of maintaining the shipping volume, the price keeps falling. By the end of March 3, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets in East China market was 9200-9300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanghai goods with tickets was 9400-9600 yuan / ton. At present, the weak market in North China is waiting for the customers to deliver goods, and the downstream mentality is waiting for the customers to deliver goods. The narrow market in East China is sorting out, and the customers maintain the mentality of shipping volume, and the market continues to explore. The weak market in South China is sorting out, and the market is pessimistic Spread, market price chaos.

Industry chain: in terms of upstream toluene, the global health event, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, combined with the overall sharp decline trend of the international oil price this week before Thursday, affected by this, the domestic toluene price followed the sharp drop, the domestic market price fell sharply this week, as of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3050 yuan / ton, down 11.59% on last week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the business club’s Data Engineer, at present, the on-site operators are short of future market mentality, the downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm for inquiry is not high, the TDI market price continues to fall under the situation of blocked shipment, and the on-site pessimism spreads. It is expected that in the later stage, the TDI market will be weak to sort out and operate, and pay attention to the factory news.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of cryolite this week was weak and stable. The average market price in Henan Province was 5833.33 yuan / ton in the week, which was stable compared with the price at the end of last week, down 9.33% compared with last year..

2、 Market analysis

Products: according to statistics, the price trend of cryolite keeps stable operation. As of the 3rd day, the factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong Province is about 6000-6200 yuan / ton; the factory quotation of cryolite in Henan Province is 4800-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the operation of cryolite enterprises in Henan Province is normal, the transaction is fair, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. The enterprises sell on a single basis. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream raw materials are in short supply, the downstream users purchase on demand, and the overall cryolite Market is weak and stable.

Industry chain: the price trend of fluorite in the upstream of this week is downward. The average price of domestic market at the weekend is 3155.56 yuan / ton, down 4.05% in the week. In recent years, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China has increased. The mine and flotation plant in the site have been resumed gradually, the supply of fluorite in the site has increased, the supply of downstream goods is sufficient, and the price of fluorite has declined. In the downstream aluminum industry, the demand weakened due to the impact of health events, and the market was in a weak position. This week, the trend of aluminum price fluctuated upward. The average market price at the weekend was 11613.33 yuan / ton, and the overall price rose by 1.07% in the week, with little change in price.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association: in terms of the supply and demand performance of the cryolite market at present, the manufacturer starts normally with sufficient inventory and purchases on demand in the downstream. However, due to the influence of upstream raw materials, the quotation adjustment of the enterprise is not large, and the cryolite market maintains weak and stable consolidation in the later stage, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

The domestic copper price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic spot copper at the beginning of the week was 38608.33 yuan / ton, up 3.03% from 39778.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 19.15% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

This week LME March copper wide shock, the beginning of the week back to $4739.5 after a sharp increase of $4930, after the shock run, the deadline reported $4919.5, up 2.13%. At the beginning of this week, the Shanghai copper index rebounded after a correction of 38340 yuan and hit the 40000 yuan barrier, closing at 39920 yuan, up 1.76%.

This week, the spot copper supply is tight, the spot copper keeps a good water rise, the first half of the week, the downstream operating rate has increased, the consumption has slightly recovered, the traders have a good deal, the end of the week is in holiday, the traders have a cool deal before the festival, and the downstream consumption has turned bad. With the holiday approaching, the market is more cautious about holding goods, mainly based on rigid demand, and the actual consumption is flat. The increase of domestic infrastructure construction has boosted the metal demand, but the decline of overseas demand is hard to change, which will restrain the copper consumption of relevant enterprises. The global economy is still uncertain, and there is still pressure above the copper price.

3、 Future prospects

According to the above situation, the copper analyst of nonferrous branch of business society thinks: Rio Tinto announced that the copper contract of us smelter suffered force majeure, and it is expected that there will be more and more stories about the supply side in the future, but the inflection point of overseas epidemic has not yet appeared, and the risk of economic recession still exists. Copper price is in the low rebound stage, but there is no trend. It is expected that copper price will fluctuate mainly in the low position in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the price of domestic TDI market in March was significantly reduced. The average ex factory price of domestic TDI at the beginning of the month was about 11066.67 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic TDI at the end of the month was about 10266.67 yuan / ton, down 7.23% in the month, down 22.61% year-on-year.

2、 Market situation

Product: the domestic TDI market price falls this month. In the early stage, the supplier will mainly stabilize the price of goods and increase the export. In the later stage, the supplier’s load is high. In the later stage of high inventory, the mentality is biased towards goods delivery. The industry is more pessimistic about the future market. In the case of weak downstream demand, the market center of gravity may be further explored. The market is surrounded by negative air. The market continues to decline. At the end of the month, the center of gravity breaks through the “ten thousand yuan pass”. By the end of 31 days, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China is 9500-9700 yuan / ton, the quotation of Shanghai goods with bills is 9800-10200 yuan / ton; the quotation of domestic goods with bills in South China is 9500-9800 yuan / ton, the quotation of Shanghai goods with bills is 9900-10000 yuan / ton, left and right; the quotation of domestic goods with bills in North China is 9800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanghai goods with bills is 9800 yuan / ton The reference price is 10000-10200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of nitric acid in the upstream of TDI in China fluctuated upward this month, and the market price by the end of the month was 1600 yuan / ton, 3.23% lower than 1550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The market demand was light and stable, and the market in the later period was volatile; in terms of upstream toluene, the toluene Market in East China continued to decline. Affected by international crude oil shocks and falls, as well as the sharp drop of toluene price in South Korean market, the main source of toluene import, although domestic enterprises have gradually entered the resumption period, the market demand has been improved slowly, and the domestic toluene price has followed the decline. At present, the mainstream price in East China is 3600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of toluene in the later domestic market will fluctuate.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency: at present, the TDI market is weakening as a whole, the price of toluene is falling sharply, and the load of the factory is high, the profit space is increasing, the operator is now in a short mood, there is less on-site inquiry, and the transaction is cold. It is expected that the TDI market will be weak in the later period and pay attention to the policy guidance of the factory.

Magnesium market trend

On April 3, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 13300-13800 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up of the business agency, the main quotation range of Fugu magnesium ingot (99.9%) is 13300-13500 yuan / ton; Ningxia magnesium ingot (99.9%) is 13400-13550 yuan / ton; Taiyuan magnesium ingot (99.9%) is 13500-13600 yuan / ton; Wenxi magnesium ingot (99.9%) is 13600-13700 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on March 3 was 13583.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.64% compared with the average price of 14550 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (3.1). In recent years, the price of magnesium ingot has been declining all the way. At present, the price has reached a low level for nearly three years. On the one hand, based on the short-term imbalance between supply and demand, some magnesium enterprises in the main production area are willing to ship at a high price due to their strong demand for payment collection; on the other hand, due to the general decline of bulk commodities in recent years, the downstream willingness to receive goods has declined, and the willingness of traders to store goods has fallen to the freezing point. The purchase is mainly based on rigid demand, with a small number of batches Lord, such as the city is more cautious. The overall purchase volume of the market is not much, and the trading is relatively light.

Expected market outlook

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingot is obviously moving down. The current price is low, and the market purchase may recover. If the market continues to reduce the market, it is expected that some factories will be shut down for maintenance in April in advance. It is expected that the recent magnesium market game will be intensified, the stable and weak operation in the near future will be the main factor, 13000 front-line will obtain strong support, and later pay attention to the change of downstream market purchase rhythm.