1、 Price trend

Price: the main quotation of GPPS is 7800-8900 yuan / ton, and that of hips is 8700-9700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market overall demand performance is weak, part of the quotation inertia upward. Some traders are reluctant to sell their products. The demand of downstream factories is flat, and most of them are on-demand purchases.

3、 Future forecast

PS market is affected by the soft downstream demand, and the transaction is light. Some petrochemical enterprises have increased the ex factory price, or can continue to provide support for the future market. Traders are more flexible. PS market is expected to rise slightly.

On April 14, the fluorite commodity index was 104.68, down 0.19 points from yesterday, down 17.89% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 112.72% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite has declined. As of the 15th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2983.33 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant has increased. The on-site mine and flotation plant have been resumed gradually. The supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient. In the near future, the price of downstream hydrofluoric acid has dropped. For the on-demand purchase of fluorite market, the situation of fluorite on-site delivery is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market has declined. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream of the terminal purchases on demand, resulting in the continuous decline of market price. As of the 15th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3200 yuan / ton.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 15th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10590 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant was generally, the demand for fluorite was normal, the supply of goods in the site was sufficient, and the price of fluorite gradually fell. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry has been in a downturn, the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is poor, the demand for refrigerant has been declining, the domestic R22 supply is sufficient, the domestic market price trend of refrigerant R22 has fallen, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is normal, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturer stops more, and the demand changes little, in addition to foreign public health affairs The main price of domestic large enterprises is 16000-18000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is gradually falling, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is declining. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be slightly lower in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic chlorinated paraffin in March fell by 2.70% in 52 months. In April, the market tends to be stable. On April 15, the ex factory price of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 was 4800 yuan / ton, and the price was stable within the month. On April 15, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 71.46, which was the same as yesterday, 34.70% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 11.92% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: after falling in March, the market of chlorinated paraffin tends to be stable. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3700-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 3800-4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is about 4600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in March, the price of raw material liquid wax was stable for shipment, the market was stable, and just needed to get the goods. The prices of some regions in the liquid chlorine market are rising, and the prices of many regions are in balance, with no change in demand. Low load operation of downstream enterprises of chlorinated paraffin. Enter the range of raw material market in April. The price of liquid wax was stable in the mainstream and increased in some cases. The price range of liquid chlorine fluctuated, and the future market remained on the sidelines.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 28 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 13 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 14.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are pure benzene (21.34%), crude benzene (20.34%) and acetone (15.79%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 11.31%), butadiene (- 10.19%) and aniline (- 5.63%). This week’s average was up or down 1.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association believe that the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin in March is low, the terminal demand is weak, the market supply is greater than the demand, and the market of chlorinated paraffin fluctuates downward. In April, the operating rate increased, terminal demand eased, but it was still not high, and the market remained stable. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of spandex in the domestic market recently bottomed out and rebounded, with an increase of more than 3% in the past seven days, of which the market average price of 40d specification as of April 15 was 32600 yuan / ton, up 3.49% on a weekly basis and down 10.28% on a year-on-year basis. The terminal needs to follow up carefully in all fields, and the supply of conventional products is stable. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation is 36000-38000 yuan / ton; the reference for 30d spandex mainstream negotiation is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for 40d spandex mainstream negotiation is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

At present, the attention of spandex market coarse denier is still high, the mask wind is strong, the demand for mask earband is still hot, there is a certain speculation atmosphere, the manufacturer coarse denier has a good shipment, the goods are tight and the price is high. Since the Qingming Festival holiday, 70D / 140d goods are hard to find, and the price has increased from 30000 yuan / ton to 32000-35000 yuan / ton. There are also a few manufacturers who do not offer or accept orders temporarily. Up to now, the mainstream price reference of 70D / 140d market is 38000-43000 yuan / ton, the higher price is more heard, and the market price is relatively chaotic. At present, most of the manufacturers have changed production and their production capacity has been improved. Some of them still do not receive new orders. They hand over orders in the early stage and arrange orders in advance until May.

Summary of production and marketing trends of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Shanxi sanwei 5 parking, no restart plan

Jiaxing Xiaoxing 12 small line parking

Sinopec Great Wall energy chemical 9.2 unit load is not high

Shaanxi chemical 4.6 full load operation

Henan Nenghua No.6 parking Center

The load of Xinjiang Meike 5 unit is not high

Low load of 4.6 unit in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang

The raw material PTMEG market is in a weak position, the factory has a certain shipping pressure, and the focus of actual single negotiation is weak. The main quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is 14200-15000 yuan / ton. Pure MDI continues to be weak in the low position, and the downstream rigid purchase is the main factor, with limited trading volume and weak investment. The quotation in South China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrels, and that in North China is 13500-14000 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barrels.

In the lower reaches of Zhejiang Province, enterprises in Xiaoshao region started to work at a low level, with 30-50% starting in the round machine and yarn wrapping Market; in Zhangjiagang region, Jiangsu Province, the market order was insufficient, with 50-60% starting level, and the overall demand in the terminal field was weak. However, the demand for mask earband is good, and the supply is in short supply. The terminal adds a new mask machine, and the demand for spandex 70D / 140d increases. The buyer mainly orders small orders, and some dealers take a large number of goods, so most spandex manufacturers have changed production to 140d, and the production capacity increases.

Overall, at present, in addition to the tight supply of raw spandex, the supply of spandex is basically stable, the demand in the downstream terminal area is light, the demand for masks and earbands is good, and the supply is in short supply. Therefore, in the short term, the price of spandex market remains stable and the market leader is in the upper middle. Business analysts believe that as the attention of crude denier silk weakens and the market speculation enthusiasm cools, the price will gradually return to rationality.

The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on the evening of the 12th that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an oil production reduction agreement on the same day, with an average daily production reduction of 9.7 million barrels from May 1, the first round of production reduction lasting for two months.

OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries held a ministerial Video Conference on the 12th and reached an agreement. According to the agreement, the production reduction from May to June this year will be 9.7 million barrels per day, 7.7 million barrels per day from July to the end of this year, and 5.8 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022.

In a statement on social media that night, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed barjindo said that the production reduction agreement is the largest and longest lasting and has historical significance. The statement said the agreement is conducive to oil producing countries, consumers and the global economy, and is a victory for international cooperation and multilateralism.

On September 9, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries reached an initial agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels per day from May to June this year. A final agreement could not be reached on the same day, as Mexico opposed the production cuts allocated to it. According to the agreement reached on the 12th, Mexico’s production reduction is 100000 barrels per day, rather than the previously proposed 400000 barrels per day.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell this week, and the price of asphalt was reported as 2300 yuan / ton, 10.68% lower than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: on April 9, when the international oil price fell and the demand of asphalt market recovered slowly, the price of asphalt market fell sharply this week.

Industry chain: on April 9, the OPEC + special meeting came to an end. Its production reduction amount was lower than the market expectation. The market generally didn’t buy the result, and was boosted by the news of production reduction earlier. The market has digested the benefit ahead of time. From the perspective of demand, at present, the global epidemic is still in the stage of rapid spread. Market experts generally believe that it may last for a long time in the later period. Some institutions predict that the decline of crude oil demand in April will exceed 20 million barrels / day, or even 30 million barrels. As of 15:00 on the 10th, WTI crude oil price was at $23.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil futures fell 10.11% this week.

In terms of asphalt Market: Sinopec and PetroChina’s main refineries suppressed the price of asphalt this week. At the beginning of this week, the crude oil market was favorable and boosted the overall turnover of asphalt market. However, in Northeast China, Liaohe Petrochemical’s Asphalt price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, and in Northwest China, Karamay’s price was reduced by 300 yuan / ton. The regional market price is still dominated by supply. In the case of slow demand recovery, asphalt price It is more difficult to push the price up. On April 9, the international oil price fell sharply, and the sentiment of asphalt market fell into wait-and-see again.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the output reduction of OPEC + meeting is not as strong as expected, and the demand for crude oil is expected to fall sharply, the crude oil market has no power to act, and the asphalt market has no demand support, and the price of asphalt market is expected to be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China rose this week. Last Friday (April 3) the sample enterprise price of the business association was 4700.00 yuan / ton, and this Friday (April 10) the sample enterprise price was 5183.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.28%. The price is 37.80% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, styrene market prices rebounded steadily and rose sharply. On April 3, East China styrene closed at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5200 yuan / ton, up about 600 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 3, South China styrene closed at 4500-4550 yuan / ton, and on April 10, 5100 yuan / ton, up by 600 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week continues to be affected by the expectation of crude oil production reduction. Styrene market participants have a bullish expectation for the future. In the week, styrene got rid of the influence of crude oil and supply and demand, and pulled the styrene price up by the rising sentiment. The buying was positive and the overall trading atmosphere was good. With the resumption of downstream mainstream enterprises, the demand for styrene has gradually increased, and the operating rate of domestic styrene plants has remained at 67.05%, up from the previous few weeks. On the port side, the port inventory is slightly lower than last week, but in the short term, it is difficult to break the situation that the supply of styrene exceeds the demand.

Industrial chain:

Crude oil and futures picked up this week, pure benzene stopped falling and rebounded, and ethylene continued to fall. The price of downstream EPS rose sharply this week, PS rose slightly, ABS fell slightly, and the overall operating rate of downstream enterprises rose. Downstream enterprises maintained a high profit and strong demand for styrene.

3、 Future outlook

At present, the situation of oversupply is still in progress, and the production profit is showing a positive trend, which will increase the willingness of domestic styrene factories to raise the operating rate, while the port inventory will still be sufficient next week. Although the downstream demand is strong, it is possible to digest the demand in advance. It is expected that the market rally sentiment of styrene market will fall in the short term, closely following the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

On April 10, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3417 yuan / ton, down 2.38% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.

On April 9, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton or 2.25% from the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of April 9, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1145200 tons, an increase of 24600 tons or 2.20% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 4300 tons or 0.38% compared with this Monday. Inventory is still high, but the rate of accumulation slows down.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 5400 tons per day, while Taicang delivered about 1900 tons per day to the two warehouses, which remained at a low level.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 59%, which is lower than that of last week. The operating rate of polyester downstream is about 81%, which is slightly higher than that of last week.

In terms of equipment, Xinjiang Tianye has an annual output of 350000 tons of glycol plant, which was shut down for maintenance on April 4, and the restart time has not been determined. Maoming Petrochemical Branch reduces the load of glycol section, reduces losses and increases efficiency.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Affected by the positive trend of crude oil during the Qingming period, the spot and futures prices of glycol have recovered this week. However, with the end of crude oil rally, glycol market expectations gradually fell back.

At present, coal manufacturing enterprises have suffered serious losses, and various units have begun to reduce load and stop work for maintenance to avoid risks. However, due to the continuous supply of imported goods, there is no downward trend in inventory. The downstream operation rate has increased, but due to the impact of the global epidemic, foreign trade orders continue to be cancelled and exports are limited.

In the early morning of April 10, OPEC + meeting reached a framework agreement to reduce production by 10 million barrels / day in the next two months. If crude oil can stop falling and recover in the later period, glycol price is expected to fluctuate upward.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of cryolite this week was weak and stable. The average market price in Henan Province was 5833.33 yuan / ton in the week, which was stable compared with the price at the end of last week, down 9.33% compared with last year. On April 9, the cryolite commodity index was 70.85, the same as yesterday, 30.00% lower than 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and 6.78% higher than 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: according to statistics, the price trend of cryolite is stable. As of the 10th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is about 6000-6950 yuan / ton; the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 4800-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the operation of cryolite manufacturer’s devices is normal, the supply of enterprises is sufficient, and the transaction is fair. This week, the price quoted by the manufacturers is mainly stable, and the enterprises sell according to the order. Affected by the environmental protection policy, the upstream raw materials are in short supply, the downstream users purchase on demand, and the market situation of cryolite is weak and stable.

Industry chain: the upstream fluorite price trend continued to fall this week, with the average domestic market price on Friday at 3000 yuan / ton, down 4.93% in the week. In recent years, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China has increased. The mine and flotation plant in the site have been resumed gradually. The supply of fluorite has increased, the supply of downstream goods is sufficient, and the market price of fluorite has declined. In the downstream aluminum industry, the demand weakened due to the impact of health events and the weak operation of the market. This week, the aluminum price trend fluctuated upward. The average market price at the weekend was 11750 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 1.18% in the week, and the overall price did not change much in the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, the market price of cryolite is weak and stable at present. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the manufacturer starts normally, has sufficient inventory, purchases on demand in the downstream, and the manufacturer’s quotation is not adjusted much. In the later stage, the cryolite market may maintain weak and stable operation, with specific attention to market demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the spot nickel price rebounded slightly this week, with a weekend quotation of 98033.33 yuan / ton, up 4.44% from 93866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.6% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Futures quotations

At the beginning of this week, the main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 93800, and since then, the price is relatively strong. It rose sharply on Friday to close at 97310, up 5.31% on a weekly basis. Lennie closed at $11705 at Friday’s closing, up 4.46% on the week.

Philippines ban escalation

In recent years, the impact of the epidemic on the nickel supply side has increased, and the Philippine ban has been upgraded. The president of the Philippines said that he would like to extend the blockade until April 30. All mining and production processing in the high area of northern Missouri has been suspended since April 1, and nickel miners such as pgmc, TMC and HMC voluntarily suspended their mining and export business in April.

Ferronickel plant is not eager to purchase

At present, the existing nickel ore inventory of domestic mainstream nickel iron plants can still support January to March. Some small and medium-sized nickel iron plants are short of nickel ore raw material inventory. Although most domestic nickel iron plants are in deficit, most nickel iron plants plan to consider the shutdown after fully digesting the nickel ore inventory.

Stainless steel inventory pressure relief

In late March, the stainless steel inventory was digested to some extent, and the current inventory pressure was relieved. However, due to the spread of the global epidemic, the export orders of stainless steel in the overseas market were reduced. At present, the stainless steel market is still in the pattern of oversupply and the price of stainless steel is weak.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is affected by the epidemic. Nickel ore shipments may decline in April, and domestic port inventory of nickel ore continues to decline. Currently, nickel price does not touch the global mainstream cost of nickel (below $10000). It is expected that nickel price will rebound slightly in the short term, but the rebound range may be limited.