1、 Price trend

Market analysis of potash products

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on April 1, the average factory price of light potash in China was 6325.00 yuan / ton, and on April 28, the average factory price of light potash in China was 6325.00 yuan / ton, down 0.20%, with the current price down 7.50% year-on-year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in April, the domestic potassium carbonate declined slightly, the domestic potassium chloride production of upstream raw materials was normal, the supply of goods in the Port Free Trade Zone continued to increase, the international price fell, and the overall trend or low consolidation of potassium chloride market was dominated. There is no supporting effect on the price of potash. This week, the market of potash is weak and downward. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of potash market is not warm and hot, the activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual trading volume of the market is insufficient, and the downstream procurement maintains rigid demand. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is low, and the overall inventory is low. The purchasing market momentum is general. Domestic potash companies Sentiment fell. According to the statistics of the business agency, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate in April is about 6100-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to potash analysts of the business association, the domestic potash market price has continued to decline in the near future, but the range is not large. It is expected that the price of potash will be dominated by consolidation in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

On April 27, the fluorite commodity index was 97.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.55% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 98.07% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite remains low. As of the 28th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2777.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively high, the mine and flotation plant in the field are gradually resumed, the supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream falls in the near future. For the purchase on demand of fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the field is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market remains low 。 In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in a slight decline in market price. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and the trend of fluorite price remained low.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 28th day, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 9710 yuan / ton. The decline of hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is normal, the demand for fluorite is normal, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, and the price of fluorite remains low. In recent years, the sales of automobile industry is sluggish, and the trend of the terminal downstream refrigerant market is poor. The demand for refrigerants continues to decline, the domestic supply of R22 is sufficient, the domestic market price trend of R22 falls back, the manufacturer ‘s production unit operating load is still not high, the supply of goods in the market is normal, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers park more, and the demand changes little. In addition, foreign public health affairs The main price of domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is weak, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the near future remains low. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may be slightly lower in the short term.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s large list, as of April 28, the average price of lithium hydroxide quoted by enterprises was 57000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, with a half year cycle and a year-on-year drop of 17.79%. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, that of Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 58000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai Chenli new material industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 55000 yuan / ton. The specific price will be discussed in a single way. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium hydroxide Market in China is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market of lithium carbonate ran smoothly on the 28th. On April 28, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 41900 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday and 3.9% lower than that of April 1. On April 28, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, down 6.22% compared with that of April 1. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 38000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 45500-48000 yuan / ton. At present, the market demand is weak, the trade is flat, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the market of lithium carbonate will be mainly weak and stable.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the market of lithium carbonate in the upper reaches is weak and stable in the near future, with limited support for the cost of lithium hydroxide. At present, the orders of large lithium hydroxide plants are relatively stable, the shipments of small and medium-sized enterprises are relatively general, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of demand information.

Magnesium market trend

On April 28, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 12950-13200 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 12950-13100 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13100-13200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13200-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13000-13100 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 28th was 13083.33 yuan / ton, which was 14166.67 yuan / ton compared with the market price at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 7.65%.

The price of magnesium ingot continues to move down. At present, the price has reached a low level in nearly 4 years, as shown in the following figure:

The price of magnesium ingot has been stable recently, and fluctuates down slightly. At present, the market turnover has picked up slightly, the early contract delivery is concentrated, and some manufacturers say that there are not many spot goods. Near the May Day holiday, the downstream manufacturers have basically completed the preparation of goods. At present, the purchase rhythm of a small number of batches has not changed significantly.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak, and the rigid demand procurement is the main demand. It is expected that the magnesium market game will intensify in the near future, and the stable operation in the near future will be the main one. 13000 frontline will obtain strong support, and pay attention to the change of the downstream procurement rhythm in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

LNG prices continued to fall in the second half of April. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on April 27 was 2953.33 yuan / ton, 8.47% lower than that on April 16, and 13.14% lower than that of the same period last year. On April 26, the LNG commodity index was 72.79, down 0.74 points from yesterday, 65.17% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 5.72% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of April 27, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2970 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2920 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was about 2850 yuan / ton, Shanxi Qinshui Xinao LNG price was 3050 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Zhongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd The LNG price of Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2970 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua is 3900 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: LNG market in the second half of the month was not good, and the price continued to fall. Recently, the international oil price has been falling, even negative, which has an impact on the long-term price of LNG import, and there is a risk of further decline in imported gas. The imported sea gas is of high quality and low price, which impacts the domestic LNG market, and it is in the off-season. The downstream demand is general, the inventory of liquid plants is on the high side, and the sales pressure is high. As well as approaching the May Day holiday, dangerous chemical vehicles on the expressway will be restricted. Most manufacturers continue to reduce their prices to seek benefits. The domestic LNG price is subject to multiple pressures and the price drops frequently. At present, most LNG prices in the north are below 3000 yuan, hovering on the cost line, and the profits of liquid plants are shrinking. Today’s decline is suspended, but there is still a risk of falling LNG in the future. Many negative factors such as consumption off-season, intake shock, and sufficient market supply add up, and LNG price may not rise significantly in a short period of time.

News: in March, natural gas production reached 16.9 billion cubic meters, up 11.2% year on year, with an average daily output of 540 million cubic meters. In the first quarter, 48.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, up 9.1% year on year. 6.92 million tons of imported natural gas, down 0.2% year on year. In the first quarter, 24.66 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.8% year on year. China imported 4.19 million tons of liquefied natural gas in March, up 4.3% year on year, and 2.73 million tons of natural gas in March, down 5.3% year on year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of Business Club: at present, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving is not high in the off-season, the market digestion capacity is weakened, and restricted by factors such as the impact of intake tone, the domestic LNG market continues to decline, with prices falling continuously and hovering near the cost line. It is expected that the LNG market will be weak in the short term, and the good will be hard to find, mostly dominated by low consolidation, and there is still a falling expectation

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on April 27, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 10000-10900 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 9300-9800 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in late April, driven by the soaring isopropanol market, the domestic n-propanol market was running at a high level, with tight market inventory and high prices. Nanjing area: Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer of n-propanol, is now in normal operation. The ex factory price of n-propanol purified water has been greatly increased. The reference price is 9800 yuan / ton, which is 1300 yuan / ton higher than that before half a month (reference price of 8500 yuan / ton for ex factory purified water on 14th). Shandong Province: the market of n-propanol in Shandong Province has been volatile for half a month, and the market price can be described as one-day discussion. Within half a month, the highest price of domestic n-propanol market including packaging quotation is 12000 yuan / ton. With the recent decline of the market price of isopropanol, the quotation of some n-propanol dealers has been reduced compared with the previous days, but the overall price is still significantly higher than the beginning of the month. At present, the price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is still rising The main quoted price of barreled goods is around 9900-10500 yuan / ton. Up to 27 days ago, the factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging in fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province was 10500 yuan / ton, which was 1100 yuan / ton higher than that half a month ago (including 9400 yuan / ton of the factory quotation of packaging in 14 days); the factory quotation of jinrihe chemical Co., Ltd. in Jinan was slightly lower than that a few days ago, which was 9500 yuan / ton, but the price was still 1000 yuan / ton higher than that half a month ago; the factory quotation of n-propanol in Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd The reference price of packing is 10000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than half a month ago. In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industry chain: isopropanol prices have been rising since mid March. In early April, prices continued to soar as export orders were delivered centrally and factories cut production temporarily due to accidents. Near the end of April, the price of isopropanol began to fall. Up to now, the negotiation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol is about 12300-13000 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 12600-12700 yuan / ton. Influenced by the international situation, the isopropanol export in China will continue for some time. Many factory offers do not report, domestic trade inquiries more, take goods very cautious, few transactions.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the market of n-propanol is expected to stabilize after a slight decline in the short term.

On April 26, the rare earth index was 330, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 21.77% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 353500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide rose by 2000 yuan / ton to 263500 yuan / ton, 1795000 yuan / ton, 305000 yuan / ton and 279000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 330500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1785000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth is mainly stable, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising slightly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers start work normally, the domestic supply is normal, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend is temporarily stable. In the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is general, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly rising slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is normal in the near future, and some market prices are mainly stable. In addition, recent foreign health events have a great impact on the export volume of rare earth products, and the price trend of rare earth market is stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand was normal, and some rare earth prices rose slightly.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. National policies are conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of heavy rare earth market has increased, and the market price trend is normal.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market is normal in the near future, and the downstream demand is general. In addition, the downstream export market is poor, and the rare earth industry is not well supported, and the price trend of rare earth market is expected to be stable in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s Cobalt market fell in shock, breaking the stable trend of the cobalt market since April, and the cobalt price fell in shock. As of April 24, the price of cobalt was 239333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.10% from the average price of 247000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

2、 Market situation

Demand overview

The demand market for cobalt lithium battery is mainly divided into mobile phone consumption and new energy vehicle demand. In terms of the demand for mobile phones, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have basically resumed operation, but the operation rate is not ideal. Affected by the epidemic, the import and export of countries around the world are limited. Most enterprises in the consumer market and power market have stopped production, which greatly reduces the demand for mobile phones and the demand for lithium batteries. In April, export orders of some battery factories will drop sharply, production of battery factories will be reduced, and their demand for cobalt materials will be relatively reduced.

In terms of new energy vehicle market, only some battery factories in China will export to foreign vehicle enterprises, while other power battery factories are mainly in domestic market. However, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the domestic market was freezing, and the demand for cobalt fell to a low level. The demand of cobalt market is decreasing, which is bad for cobalt market.

Cobalt Market Stock

Inventory date item inventory unit

891.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-27

2020-4-24 cobalt 894.75 tons

765.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-23

769 tons of cobalt 2020-4-22

2020-4-21 cobalt 772.25 tons

777.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-20

It can be seen from the table that the stock volume of cobalt market this week rose sharply, and a large amount of cobalt stock entered the market. The supply of cobalt market increased greatly, the price of cobalt was negative, and the downward pressure of cobalt market increased.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, believes that the demand for cobalt market this week continues to be sluggish, but in terms of supply, a large number of cobalt warehouses are deposited in the market, the supply of cobalt market is increasing, the demand is sluggish, and the bad situation of cobalt market is increasing, with Limited good. On the whole, the recent weak cobalt market has not enough power to rise, but due to the low cobalt price, the risk of cobalt price decline is low. Cobalt market is expected to remain stable.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on April 27, the spot copper price was 42968.33 yuan / ton, up 2% from the previous day, down 12.03% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main contract opened high to 42880 yuan, and fell to 42490 yuan in the afternoon, up 1.63%.

2、 Market analysis

On April 26, Yunnan provincial government conducted commercial storage of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and other key non-ferrous metal products in the province, with a total storage capacity of about 800000 tons and a storage period of one year. The news of storage and collection obviously led to the general rise of the metal market, and copper prices continued to rebound. Rio Tinto, one of the world’s major mining enterprises, and Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, lowered their copper production targets, and MMG Peru copper mine encountered force majeure. Freeport lowered its copper production forecast by 11% in 2020. The supply of ore end is still shrinking, and the supply of scrap copper is also insufficient. On the demand side, Europe and the United States plan to restart economic activities, but global economic growth is still facing difficulties, and there are still concerns about the outlook for metal demand, which may inhibit copper prices.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperation believe that: the state’s collection of reserves has boosted copper prices, the interference of copper supply has supported copper prices, domestic demand has rebounded, but exports have been restrained, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has fallen. As of April 26, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho phthalic method was 4862.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has gradually declined, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly.

In recent years, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has fallen, the market demand of phthalic anhydride is poor, the market price of phthalic anhydride is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen slightly. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market price of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride drops slightly. As of the 26th, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring France’s source of goods was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and that for naphthalene’s source of goods was 4200-4500 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation for phthalic anhydride market was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride market was still there, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was generally low.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4200 yuan / ton. The price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area is stable and stable temporarily. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is general and the price of phthalic acid in the external market is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material, the price of phthalic anhydride market has slightly dropped.

The price of phthalic anhydride and octanol, the raw material of downstream dopdopdopdopdopdop, fell. Influenced by the expectation of crude oil production reduction, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol rose sharply last week, but the subsequent production reduction agreement was not as expected, and the price rise lost its support. The recovery of downstream demand was limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell. This week, the cost of DOP fell, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the market price of DOP was bearish. The market price of DOP was about 6300-6600 yuan / ton. The price of upstream DOP was about 6300 The trend of ox price is stable temporarily, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be slightly lower in the later period.