1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 12th was $710.00/ton, down 5.30% compared with $749.75/ton on the 9th, and the current price is 28.43% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell, as of December 12, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $640-650 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $629-639 / T. The price of European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 12th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at 823-833 US dollars / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at 730-734 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rebounded slightly. As of the 12th, the price was 275-287 USD / ton. Overall: in recent years, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States has been on the decline. After the U.S. ethylene market fell to a low point, it rebounded a little, and the whole ethylene market has been on the decline. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on March 11, New York Mercantile futures exchange, West Texas light oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $32.98 per barrel, down $1.38 or 4.0% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in May 2020 was $35.79 per barrel, down $1.43 or 3.8% compared with the previous trading day; crude oil inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and the price was down $1.43 or 3.8% compared with the previous trading day Georgia continued to fall sharply, unable to play a supporting role in the price of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene fell again. After the sharp fall of downstream styrene price, the consolidation and ethanol market are also at a low level, unable to support the ethylene price, and there is a possibility of further follow-up.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, Saudi Arabia and Russia have serious differences on the production reduction agreement, which has led to a sharp drop in crude oil market. It fell to its lowest level since 2017. Unable to support the price of ethylene, so business analysts expect the price of ethylene to keep a narrow decline in the future.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline. As of March 12, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process was 5487.5 yuan / ton. Since 2020, the price of phthalic anhydride has dropped by 12.9%, down 19.7% year on year. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen to a new low within the year.

In recent years, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride continues to decline. Due to the sharp drop of crude oil price in the past few days, the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material ortho benzene has dropped by 600 yuan / ton. In addition, the downstream of the terminal has not been fully recovered in the near future, some phthalic anhydride manufacturers still have inventory, and the delivery situation is poor. Affected by the large drop of raw material price, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has been falling continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has fallen, the downstream factories have been shut down a lot, the factory inventory pressure has increased, and the high-end transaction has been blocked. In recent years, the inventory of manufacturers has increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has declined. In East China, the mainstream of neighboring source negotiation is 5300-5500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5000-5200 yuan / ton. In North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 5300-5500 yuan / ton, The prices of most manufacturers in the site fell, and the downstream purchase was mainly on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply.

In recent years, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has dropped to 5000 yuan / ton, and the import phthalic acid Market in port area is slightly lower. In recent years, the port phthalic acid market is weak, the port inventory has increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual list is discussed in detail. The market price of phthalic anhydride continues to decline due to the impact of the decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price.

The lower DOP raw material price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the DOP raw material cost fluctuated and fell, the DOP enterprise operated at low load, the logistics transportation was limited in the near future, it was difficult to get out of the warehouse, and the DOP manufacturer’s inventory increased. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fell, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation of DOP market is about 6700-7000 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizers are traded, the downstream demand is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is significantly lower.

In the later stage, the crude oil price has not significantly increased in the short term. In addition, the peak season of downstream plasticizer industry is over, and the demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited. In addition, the impact of national health events, it is expected that in the later stage, the price of phthalic anhydride market will rise under a lot of pressure and will still fall.

On March 11, the HFA commodity index was 104.36, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.69% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 94.74% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 11500 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is more than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is normal. Due to the impact of public health events, some units have not been started, and the recent market of goods in the hydrofluoric acid site is relatively smooth. Due to the general downstream demand, hydrofluoric acid market is relatively smooth The market price trend is stable for the time being. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable for the time being, the supply of spot goods is normal, but the demand situation is not improved obviously, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is stable for the time being.

The market price of upstream fluorite is higher. In recent years, fluorite manufacturers are limited to start production. The supply of fluorite is very tight. Fluorite price has been at a high level. As of the 12th day, the price of fluorite is 3400 yuan / ton. The rise of upstream raw material price brings certain cost support to hydrofluoric acid market. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the price support of raw material fluorite. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is general. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The domestic R22 supply is normal. The market price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 is temporarily stable. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air conditioning manufacturers stop more and the demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 16500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is stable temporarily, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, and the price remains stable, while the downstream purchase is still on demand, and the downstream market is general, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable temporarily.

Generally speaking, the turnover in the refrigerant market is not very big. For the upstream hydrofluoric acid market, purchasing is on demand. However, with the shortage of fluorite supply and certain support for the cost, Chen Ling, an analyst at the business club, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain at a high level.

Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business association, after March, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has been in a weak and stable operation. As of March 10, the average price of dichloromethane has remained around 2500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis:

Product: after entering March, due to the influence of enterprise overhaul, the supply of dichloromethane in the market is relatively soft. However, due to the fact that it is in the off-season of dichloromethane, and the commencement of downstream market is delayed, the market demand is poor, and the overall supply and demand are weak. At present, Jinling and Dongyue units in Shandong Province have resumed production, and the market will present a situation of supply exceeding demand. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 2500 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Province Liwen’s quotation is about 2850 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu’s quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the trend of domestic methanol market is narrow and low. Some enterprises have adjusted prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. At present, about 1980 yuan / ton; the overall production of liquid chlorine market is relatively stable, and the downstream market intends to reduce the purchase price, currently about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market has gradually recovered, and the terminal demand is still weak, at present, about 17500-19000 yuan / ton; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry are not well started, the demand is just flat, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the dichloromethane production enterprises that shut down in the early stage in Shandong Province have resumed production in succession, the market supply has increased substantially, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly, which is expected to fluctuate downward in a short period of time.

On March 9, the PX commodity index was 49.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.56% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.89% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined significantly, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, other units have been operated stably temporarily, and domestic p-xylene plant has been opened The working rate is about 70%, and the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. However, the price of crude oil has plummeted recently, and the market price of p-xylene has been affected. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 9, the closing price of PX market in Asia dropped by 100 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 562-564 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 582-584 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The sharp decline of external price has a certain positive impact on the market price of PX in China, and the market price trend of PX is significant Fall back.

WTI crude oil futures market prices plummeted in the US, with major contracts down $10.15 to 31.13 yuan / barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price plummeted, the main contract was 34.36 US dollars per barrel, a drop of 10.91 US dollars. At present, the collapse of OPEC + cooperation has led to a punitive drop in oil prices. The sharp drop in crude oil prices is bad for domestic chemical prices, and the trend of domestic p-xylene prices has declined sharply.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price has dropped sharply to 3900-4000 yuan / ton in the near future, and the social inventory of PTA has increased sharply in the near future. It is understood that the current social inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, an increase of about 500000 tons compared with that before the festival. In recent days, crude oil price has plummeted and PTA period price has fallen again. At present, terminal weaving enterprises are not expected to return to work. Inventory pressure is transmitted to all links of the industry chain from bottom to top. PTA supply and demand contradiction is more prominent. In the later stage, it will still present a weak pattern. The downstream construction is generally delayed. In addition, PTA supply remains relatively resilient, resulting in the market accumulation exceeding expectations and PTA market price falling sharply Benzene prices have declined.

In recent years, the trend of crude oil price has declined sharply, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. In addition, the demand at the downstream of the terminal has not improved significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may continue to decline.

Although the polypropylene market is still in a pattern of oversupply, the pattern of oversupply has not deteriorated, but shows signs of improvement in the context of active production reduction of production enterprises and centralized resumption of downstream enterprises. It can be judged that yesterday’s decline of polypropylene period price was mainly affected by the cost side.

The price of raw materials fell sharply

OPEC 2 monthly report estimates that in 2020, global crude oil demand will be 100.73 million barrels / day, non OPEC supply will be 66.6 million barrels / day, OPEC unconventional oil and gas and NGL production will be 4.83 million barrels / day, then OPEC crude oil production will be 29.3 million barrels / day, and global crude oil supply and demand will be balanced. In December 2019, OPEC announced another 500000 B / D reduction based on the previous production reduction agreement, and then Saudi Arabia announced an additional 400000 B / D reduction, i.e. OPEC reduced its production by 772000 B / D, with the production no more than 3038600 B / d. In January 2020, OPEC’s crude oil production was 28.859 million barrels / day, exceeding the production reduction task. If OPEC can maintain production at this level, the global crude oil supply will not be excessive, but will be in short supply. However, the decline in OPEC 1 crude oil production was largely caused by the decline in Libyan production, which is not the normal situation.

Not only that, at the end of February, social public events gradually spread from China to Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and even the whole world. Its impact on the global economy is inevitable, which is bound to curb the consumption of crude oil, and the problem of global crude oil supply surplus is further intensified. This means that if the global crude oil supply needs to be balanced, OPEC must extend the production reduction agreement and further increase the production reduction. It was widely believed that OPEC would probably extend the period of production reduction for its own benefit.

However, at last week’s ministerial meeting, OPEC’s crude oil production will no longer be limited in April because of Russia’s opposition and the final failure to reach a production restriction agreement. Affected by this factor, the global crude oil price fell by about 30%, breaking through the $30 / barrel threshold, and the energy and chemical sector fell accordingly. Considering that the price limit of polypropylene is only 4%, which is far from releasing the negative effect of deep oil price drop, it is expected that in the next few trading days, on the premise of no obvious improvement in international oil price, the period price of polypropylene will continue to decline.

Enterprises need to return to work gradually

Affected by social public events, the resumption of downstream polypropylene production enterprises is limited, and the operating rate is at a low level for a long time. However, with the improvement of the situation, it is a fact that the supply and demand pattern of polypropylene is getting better. First, as of March 6, the operating rates in the fields of plastic knitting, CO injection molding and BOPP were 45%, 63% and 51.9% respectively, 13, 14 and 39.6 percentage points higher than that on February 7, respectively, and the downstream demand improved. Second, due to poor profits, polypropylene production enterprises have been shut down in the near future. In the week of March 8, the capacity involved in the overhaul of polypropylene production enterprises reached 4.44 million tons / year, and the operating rate fell 13.36 percentage points month on month. Third, with the decline of supply and the rise of demand, the inventory of two barrels of oil fell slightly.

The supply and demand pattern of polypropylene improved, but the upstream crude oil price fell sharply, and the cost collapse became the leading factor for the price drop of polypropylene yesterday. Considering that the decline of oil price is much higher than that of PP, PP will continue to decline in the future. After the bad situation is digested, more single bottoms will be selected.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, as of March 9, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12075 yuan / ton, down 7.29% month on month and 21.08% year on year. The overall market fell significantly.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Poly MDI many traders reduce the factory price. Affected by the drop in international crude oil prices, the general mood of the industry is pessimistic. However, at the beginning of this week, Cisco’s guidance price was stable, no shipment was required, and its market stabilizing attitude was obvious, and traders’ quotations were also more stable. Some agents, considering the settlement price at the end of this month, cautiously quoted prices, and no longer continued to smash offers. However, the atmosphere of inquiry continued to be quiet and there was little negotiation.

In terms of market, South China aggregate MDI market is in a weak shock. Kostrong’s guiding price is stable and the attitude of stabilizing the market is stable. At present, the quotation of traders is more stable, and the downstream demand side has not changed significantly, so we will continue to wait and see the market change. The price of aggregate MDI market in East China is weak and volatile. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of covestro was stable, the quotation of traders was more stable, and the downstream inquiry continued to be rare, so we continued to wait and see the market trends. The price of aggregate MDI in North China fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the news was light. Kostrong’s guidance price was stable this week. It didn’t require shipment. Its attitude was stable. At present, there is no new change in downstream demand. Downstream operators are cautious to wait and see with goods, and traders’ quotations are somewhat extreme and conservative.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene and crude oil plummeted, while spot buying of pure benzene in East China fell to 4500 yuan / ton. However, due to the low inventory of Shandong Delian, part of the offer was firm at 4900-5100 yuan / ton. But inquiry is rare, the mentality of the business is poor, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Aniline: aniline Market is mainly weak and stable, it is reported that some factories secretly reduce the shipment. Two sets of 100000 ton aniline plants in Jinling were restarted, and the supply of aniline is expected to increase in the current load lifting. In terms of price, the mainstream price of Shandong aniline is 6700 yuan / ton spot exchange and 6840 yuan / ton acceptance. For East China market, 6800-7000 yuan / ton will be accepted.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: Business Club aggregation MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregation MDI market will continue to be weak, and pay attention to the manufacturer’s dynamic and downstream demand changes at any time.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price fell sharply, offering 43520 yuan / ton, down 2.68% from the previous day, down 12.36% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Spot copper prices fell sharply today. As oil prices plummeted and public health events hit market risk sentiment, China’s demand recovery was slow, metal inventories hit new highs and copper prices fell. According to the General Administration of customs, China’s foreign trade import and export from January to February 2020 decreased by 9.6% year on year. Copper inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 345000 tons, with a cumulative increase of 158.05% in the last seven weeks. Inventory exceeded expectations. However, there is a strong wait-and-see willingness in the downstream, and the overall trading performance is still average.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, the copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business society believe that: inventory accumulation, low consumption, high pressure on copper price, and weak in the short term.

According to today’s oil price news, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products last month. In the last week of February, the average net import of crude oil and petroleum products was 907000 barrels / day. According to the weekly net import data of crude oil and petroleum products of the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA), this is the lowest “import” level in the EIA data since 1973.

According to EIA data, the United States has been a net exporter of crude oil and oil products every week since the beginning of 2020, in January and February.

The EIA said at the end of last year that the US exported more crude oil and oil products than it imported in September 2019, the first time the US has become a net exporter of oil since monthly records began in 1973.

The EIA said in December 2019 that due to the surge in US crude oil production and the lifting of export restrictions in 2015, as well as the continued growth in oil product production and exports, the US crude oil and oil product exports in September 2019 were 89000 barrels / day higher than imports.

In its energy outlook 2020, released in January this year, the EIA said that the United States will become a net exporter of oil and oil products this year due to continued growth in production and weak domestic demand.

Although it has the status of “net exporter of oil”, the United States is still a net importer of crude oil, and its crude oil import is still higher than its export.

According to the latest monthly data, the EIA said last month that in November 2019, US crude oil imports were 5.8 million barrels / day and exports were 3 million barrels / day.

In addition, the EIA points out that although the United States as a whole is a net exporter of oil at present, most other regions are still net importers of oil except the Gulf Coast region of the United States.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week fell in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2002 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1980 yuan / ton, down 1.12% in the week, 10.20% on month, 22.29% on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market trend is narrow and low. Some enterprises have adjusted prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. Due to the current low freight, the consumer market has little resistance to the market. Affected by the decline of futures prices, the port market fluctuates and falls, and the shortage of storage capacity is unfavorable to the port trend. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the start-up of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products is lower than before the Spring Festival, so it will take time for the market to recover slowly.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in light and stable operation. Only a few of the enterprises resumed the construction, and the overall construction was at a low level. The upstream methanol market was in a narrow range. Some formaldehyde enterprises purchased a small amount at a low level. The cost of the formaldehyde market has no impact. The downstream market is still at a low level. The overall recovery of the demand side is slow, and the transaction is light.

Acetic acid: after the previous period of continuous decline, the profit of acetic acid itself is small, and the short-term downstream substantial demand continues to be weak. It is expected that there will be signs of load increase after the start of acetic acid ester industry in the middle of the month. PTA industry starts to be stable in the short term, the short-term negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease, and the passive weak situation continues, but the expected decline is narrow.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether changed from weak to strong, and the main price showed signs of rising, but prices in some regions were adjusted flexibly. With the gradual return to work of the enterprise, the overall supply increases, while it is difficult to follow up the terminal demand, and the market supply is unbalanced, resulting in weak prices.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the traditional downstream gradually recovers; the domestic freight price is low, which is favorable for the price of the production area; the northwest MTO enterprise has the intention to store methanol which is currently lower than the cost price. On the negative side, the pace of factory resumption is significantly faster than that of downstream, and there is still pressure on market supply and demand; the pace of domestic infrastructure recovery is slow, and terminal demand is still weak. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the commencement of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products are lower than before the Spring Festival, so there is limited space for methanol to rise. Based on the shutdown of most enterprises last week, the methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market still has an inertial rise, and later needs to pay attention to the change of demand.