1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong Province is weak and stable. At the beginning of the week, the price of chloroform was about 1550 yuan / ton, down 18.42% from the beginning of March.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: at present, the production of chloroform enterprises in Shandong Province remains normal, the market spot supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream market and traders are short of rigid demand, which leads to the increasing inventory pressure of enterprises, and the situation that the supply exceeds the demand in the industry is gradually revealed. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 1550 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi Liwen about 2200 yuan / ton, and in Jiangsu about 2700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the production and sales of regional production enterprises in the domestic methanol market are basically balanced, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range, but the demand side is still insufficient, at present, about 1612 yuan / ton; the overall production of the liquid chlorine market is relatively stable, and the demand of the downstream market is poor, at present, about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the demand side of domestic refrigerant market is mainly rigid demand, and the production of enterprises is gradually recovering; in the recovery of pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry, the rigid demand is weak, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the demand side of trichloromethane market is not well supported, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure is increasing day by day. However, due to the high production cost, the enterprise is not willing to sharply reduce the price, and it is expected to maintain a weak stability in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell sharply in March

According to the data of the business agency, the market price of MTBE fell sharply in March. At the end of March, the price of MTBE was 3450 yuan / ton, down 22.18% from 4433 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in March, the price of international crude oil fell sharply, the demand of gasoline market was limited, and the price of domestic gasoline market fell by 19.16% in March. In March, the price of MTBE market went down all the way, with a slight rebound at the end of the month.

Industry chain: in March, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced production increase one after another, and the overseas epidemic spread. The international oil price fell sharply, and the demand of the refined oil market was not strong. The price of the refined oil market followed the crude oil price all the way down.

Market: in the first ten days of March, the price of international crude oil market keeps falling, the price of gasoline keeps falling, the end consumption of gasoline is still not fully recovered, at the same time, the domestic supply capacity is very abundant, and the price of domestic MTBE market keeps falling. In the late ten days, international oil price rebounded slightly, gasoline production increased further, MTBE just needed to recover gradually, but at the end of the month, the international crude oil price fell again to the low level of $20 / barrel, the trading sentiment in the gasoline market turned into a downturn, MTBE looked down after the market, and the market price fell back. In the late ten days, domestic MTBE market prices rebounded slightly, but the overall trend in March was still declining.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, international oil price continues to decline, MTBE price falls to a historical low since the monitoring of business news agency, in addition to refinery resumption and gasoline production increase, it is expected that MTBE market price will continue to decline with limited space.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on March 30, the nickel price was 93266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from the previous day, down 9.57% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 92980 yuan, followed by a wide range of price shocks, closing at 93210 yuan, down 0.25%.

2、 Market analysis

Last week, domestic and foreign inventories both fell, London Metal Exchange (LME) 27 Lun Ni inventory reduced 30 metric tons, the latest inventory was 229488 metric tons. Last week, LUNI inventory continued to decline, with the total weekly inventory decreased by 1236 metric tons to 229488 metric tons, a decrease of 0.54%. Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased 1478 tons to 28671 tons last week, down 4.9%, the lowest level in nearly five months. Supply disruption concerns caused by stoppage of mines and blocked imports eased market pessimism slightly, but the demand outlook remained bleak.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: supply and demand are weak, and nickel price is expected to fluctuate mainly in low level.

On March 30, 2020, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 11490 yuan / ton, starting to stop falling and stabilize.

According to the data of business agency, as of March 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11490 yuan / ton, down 12.87% from the average market price of 13186.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1).

Strengthening the support of falling cost

At present, the price of aluminum ingots touches the cost of some manufacturers. Since late March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) that have concentrated on production reduction and maintenance, affecting the capacity scale of 445000 tons / year. Although in the first quarter, Inner Mongolia Mengtai, Inner Mongolia Guyang, Guangyuan Zhongfu (phase I), baikuangtianlin, Yunnan Aluminum Heqing (phase II) and other enterprises have a total capacity of about 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and the expected operating rate will not be too high.

Expected market outlook

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel kept stable operation this week, with small fluctuation range. The domestic gasoline price was 5221 yuan / ton, 0.36% higher than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price was 5361 yuan / ton, 0.52% lower than last week’s diesel price.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: crude oil futures prices fluctuate at the bottom, domestic enterprises return to work to stabilize the demand market for refined oil, the transaction and price are all in an upward trend, and the market price of refined oil keeps stable this week.

Industry chain: at present, many countries have increased their fiscal policies, and the central banks of many countries have released water to support economic development; as of the week of March 20, the crude oil inventory in the United States has dropped by 1.25 million barrels; market information is good for the international crude oil market, while the international oil price has dropped to a low level, and there is limited space for further decline. International oil prices are bottoming out this week.

Market: in recent years, the international oil price has been in a downward trend, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen to a low level. This week, the international bottom has been built up, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of downstream customers for replenishment. At the same time, the resumption of domestic enterprises has driven up market demand and improved market transactions. However, in the early stage, the refinery was shut down and started one after another. The average starting load of the unit was 61.84%, 9.15 percentage points higher on a month on month basis, and the supply of gasoline and diesel increased. This week, the market price of refined oil rose only a little and kept stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with the business association, believes that: at present, the crude oil market price is at the bottom of the market. In addition, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia shows no signs of turning around, and the action force in the oil product market is unknown. It is expected that the price of the oil product market will remain low in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, it was a weekly low price of 5727 yuan / ton; on Thursday and Friday, it was a weekly high price of 5914 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.25%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Products: in March, the decline trend of propylene price in Shandong Province in the early stage of reform began. On the first day, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. On the second day, the prices of the whole line rose slightly. On the third and the fourth day, the prices of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the prices of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the prices of enterprises began to fluctuate up and down, but the range was relatively small. On the tenth day, the prices generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the prices slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton The daily price slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. The price was stable on the 16th, and fell continuously on the 17th, 18th and 19th. Since the 20th, the price has been stable. The price began to rise on the 24th. Today, the price finally began to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 5900 yuan / ton. At present, there are many propylene manufacturers stop production and maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. In early April, there may be more manufacturers to start.

Industry chain: upstream, influenced by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, the international crude oil price dropped sharply again on the 16th, slightly on the 17th, sharply on the 18th, slightly on the 19th, obviously on the 20th, obviously on the 23rd, slightly on the 24th, with little fluctuation on the 25th and 26th.

This week, PP market fell slightly, down 1.97% week on week, and PP futures market fell significantly, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.92%, which had little impact on propylene.

This week, propylene oxide market continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 2.78%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

This week, epichlorohydrin prices rebounded after a downward trend, with weekly gains and losses of 0, having little impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol still fell, with a weekly decline of 2.24%, which has a certain negative impact on the negative impact of propylene.

This week, the octanol market continued to explore straight-line, the weekly decline has reached 5.81%, which has a more significant negative impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the market price of isopropanol, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 17.08% and a 12 day increase of nearly 50%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The price of phenol Market in Shandong Province fell this week, down 4.80%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Shandong acetone market slightly increased this week, with a weekly increase of 0.57%, which had little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the crude oil market has repeatedly been low due to the impact of the international crude oil market game recently. As the production and inventory of propylene are low before, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the trend of follow-up in the later stage is also obvious. At present, propylene inventory is not much, and the operating rate is not high, so the manufacturer’s delivery pressure is small. However, in early April, it is expected that some enterprises will start construction one after another, and the downstream butanol and octanol will decline significantly. Although isopropanol is still rising, it is hard to support alone. It is expected that the price of propylene will start to stabilize in recent days, and may decline in the later period.

According to statistics of business agency, as of March 27, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 15567 yuan / ton, down 1266 yuan / ton, down 7.52%, down 26.92% year-on-year; POY price of nylon was 13520 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton, down 5.59%, down 26.36% year-on-year; FDY price of nylon was 17000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton, down 5.56%, down 26.88% year-on-year.

Supply and demand imbalance, crude oil prices dive. On March 6, a new round of OPEC + “production reduction negotiations broke down. On that day, international oil prices plummeted 30% to around $30 / barrel. As of March 27, WTI crude oil fell 52.01% in March. Oil producing countries have begun to increase production and cut prices to seize the market. Saudi Aramco, a Saudi oil giant, said that its supply will reach 12.3 million barrels / day in April, while Russia responded that it has the ability to increase production by 500000 barrels / day to a record 11.8 million barrels / day. Iraq, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and other countries have also announced to join the increase in production. Crude oil production is on the way, but demand is falling sharply. The novel coronavirus pneumonia spread worldwide, and the control measures in many countries and regions have been upgraded, aviation, transportation, travel reduction and economic activity slowdown. Crude oil may remain low.

Product March 1 March 27 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 7350 6100-1250 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 10633 9267-1366 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 12867 10633-2234 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 18000 17000-1000 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 16833 15567-1266 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 14320 13520-800 yuan / ton

Cost support collapsed, demand was flat, nylon raw material prices fell sharply. The price of cyclohexanone fell by 1200 yuan / ton in March, and the actual market price was between 5600-6100 yuan / ton. Caprolactam was down about 1300 yuan / ton, while PA6 was down about 2200 yuan / ton. The downstream consumption inventory is the main one, the purchase intention is not strong, PA6 inventory becomes a problem, with a large drop.

In March, some nylon enterprises were still in order production state because of the raw materials still in place years ago, the factory operation rate was low, the purchase intention was not strong, and the inventory cost was high to support the quotation. In the middle of March, most of the manufacturers successively lowered their prices, and some of them kept their weekly decline at about 500 yuan / ton in the near future. From the price trend chart of cyclohexanone and nylon POY, it can be seen that the crude oil price is low or hard to change. Cyclohexanone fell precipitously in the middle and last ten days of March, while the price trend of nylon POY is relatively flat, filament manufacturers are still digesting inventory and price exploration stage.

Crude oil is in low volatility, nylon orders are weak, with the consumption of inventory, cost reduction, pricing gradually downward. Business analysts believe that the cost support is insufficient, orders are also not optimistic, nylon is expected to continue to reduce.

1、 Overall trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the overall trend of domestic PE market has declined to varying degrees, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is poor. As of March 24, the average ex factory price of LLDPE 7042 in East China was 6600 yuan / ton, down 0.5% compared with the previous day; the average ex factory price of LDPE 2426h in East China was 7562.5 yuan / ton, down 0.33% compared with the previous day; the average ex factory price of HDPE 5000S in East China was 7000 yuan / ton, down 1.87% compared with the previous day; the decline range was 50-200 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

On the 24th, the PE market as a whole still fell, most of the petrochemical industry was cut by about 50-200 yuan / ton, and the market cost support was weakened. In the morning (24 days), crude oil rebounded slightly after falling, and linear futures fell weakly, which had a certain degree of pressure on the market mentality. Merchants were mainly pessimistic, and the overall decline was reported. Downstream market inquiries less, in addition to some factories on demand, more cautious wait-and-see. At present, the market atmosphere is weak.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the futures market continued to decline on March 24, which to some extent depressed the mentality of the industry. The opening price of polyethylene futures l2005 is 6330, the highest price is 6330, the lowest price is 6065, the closing price is 6270, the former settlement price is 6250, the settlement price is 6195, down 65, down 1.04%, the volume is 310925, the position is 168342, and the daily increase is – 16822. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

As of February 27, the total output of domestic polyethylene enterprises was 1.41 million tons, a decrease of 252300 tons compared with January. Among them, the output of HDPE is 578900t, LDPE is 206800t and LLDPE is 624300t.

3、 Future forecast

In the morning, the rebound of international crude oil brought some relief to the market. At present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen and the supply pressure has eased. However, the linear futures continued to fall sharply, which depressed the enthusiasm of the downstream market. In terms of petrochemical industry, most of the factory prices have been lowered, the market cost support has been weakened, and the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream is not high. In addition to just need to take delivery, the factory mainly focuses on wait-and-see. It is expected that the trend of the future market will remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 24 was 6000 yuan / ton, down 1.84% compared with the previous day, and down 4.99% compared with the same period last year. On March 24, the PVC commodity index was 76.03, down 1.43 points from yesterday, down 23.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 30.48% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the domestic PVC market continued to decline on Tuesday. PVC futures fell in a row, driving spot prices down. On the foreign side, due to the recent continuous decline of crude oil market and the impact of foreign public health events, the demand for PVC has been greatly reduced, which has greatly affected the export of PVC, and the confidence of the industry is poor; on the domestic side, the downstream enterprises of PVC have resumed their work in succession, and the demand shows a slow growth trend, but the multi-dimensional system just needs to purchase, the transaction is limited, and most manufacturers are difficult to ship. At present, the supply side of PVC is a little abundant, the inventory is still at a high level, and the manufacturers cut prices more to facilitate the delivery, but the actual delivery is general, the focus of the transaction moves down, and the manufacturers may enter the maintenance in advance to maintain the cost. In the short term, there is no significant positive signal in the PVC market at home and abroad. Futures and spot prices have fallen frequently. The overall market is relatively low and the market is weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 24, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5800-6200 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5730-5900 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is about 5750-5900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 5780-5800 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

Futures: pvc2005 contract opened at 5740 yuan / ton, with a maximum of 5795 yuan / ton and a minimum of 5575 yuan / ton, and closed at 5680 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, or 2.15% compared with the previous transaction, with trading volume increased to 227756 and positions decreased by 3152 to 112483. V2005 futures continued to fall, ending at a low of 5575.

Industry chain: according to the business community, although crude oil rebounds sharply, it is difficult to reverse the long-term downturn of oil price. It is expected that crude oil will still fluctuate at a low level in the near future. It is not ruled out that it is possible to continue to explore the low level. The prevalence of public health events may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, which cannot support the price of ethylene, so analysts of business data expect that the price of ethylene will keep a narrow decline in the future. In terms of calcium carbide, in late March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall slightly in late March.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on March 24, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which natural rubber (0.21%) rose. There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are SBR (- 5.07%), cis-4.99% and PS (- 4.56%).

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club think: at present, PVC futures are down, while the spot market is down. There is no obvious positive signal at home and abroad, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 on March 23 was 4950 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic grade-I chlorinated paraffin 52 on March 24 was 4866 yuan / ton, down 1.68% per day. On March 24, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 72.46, down 1.24 points from yesterday, 33.78% from the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 13.48% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have resumed work. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3700-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 3800-4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5400 yuan / ton.

International crude oil: WTI’s may 2020 futures rose $0.65 per barrel on Tuesday (March 24), while Brent’s may 2020 futures rose $0.12 per barrel at $27.15. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract rose 17.2 yuan / barrel to 258.5 yuan / barrel in 2006

Industry chain: the market of raw material liquid wax is stable, and the market is mainly stable. Downstream manufacturers purchase as required. The liquid chlorine market is generally stable, and the price in Shandong is slightly increased. The overall liquid chlorine market fluctuates, mainly in narrow range.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on March 24, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise rate of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are formic acid (17.09%), nitric acid (3.23%) and liquid ammonia (0.51%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.9% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are isopropanol (- 32.92%), PX (- 9.09%) and DOP (- 7.50%). The average price of this day was – 0.84%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin of business association think that the market of chlorinated paraffin is facing many difficulties at present, and the pressure of reducing load and production is increasing. The atmosphere in the venue is light and the trading atmosphere is general. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the later period.