1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market weakened in the second half of February, and the spot price in the domestic market mostly decreased. As of February 27, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12750.00 yuan / ton, down 4.14% from the average level in the second week of February.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, the styrene market is still depressed in the near future, with little change in transaction. Due to the impact of domestic health events, different traffic regulations have been carried out in different places. Although the vehicle transportation capacity has recovered in the near future, the downstream demand is not high, most of the wait-and-see phenomena exist, and the inventory gradually accumulates to form pressure. In addition, the cost support is weak, although there is a narrow rebound, but Styrene Market in the near future or will still be in the short-term low market;

In the near future, the spot market trading of acrylonitrile related products is also weak, and the price is also weak. The downstream return to work is not good, and acrylonitrile production enterprises say the transportation obstacles are still large. It is expected that the market of acrylonitrile will not improve in the near future;

In recent years, the domestic butadiene market continues to be in a weak situation. Although the logistics and downstream latex factories have been resumed, the raw material inventory of the manufacturers is relatively abundant, and the market lacks the follow-up of new orders. The short-term external offer and the spot supply of the tank farm are abundant. There is no obvious price difference between the north and the south in order to stimulate the circulation of goods. The supply side of the market is still under pressure. The downstream inquiry is slightly cautious. Some high price offers in the North lack of real single support;

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second half of February, the ABS market weakened, and the recent spot prices of various brands gradually corrected. Cost side of the upstream three expect to rise and fall in the near future, general support for the cost side. The spot supply is relatively sufficient but the logistics resistance is relatively large. The main resistance in demand is also the reason for the slow resumption of work in the downstream, and the market atmosphere is cold. It is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to have a correction in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was relatively volatile in the second half of February, with spot prices rising and falling in the near future. As of February 27, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 6933.33 yuan / ton, down 1.22% from the average price in the second week of February.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene market has bottomed and rebounded recently. In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market has not changed much, but it has been raised for several days in a row. There are still many units in the upstream plant that have been shut down for maintenance. It is difficult to recover the supply in a short period of time, and the propylene output is small. However, the terminal manufacturers have started to resume work, and the logistics and transportation have also recovered. The demand for propylene has increased significantly. Moreover, the PP futures market has been climbing continuously, and the downstream has promoted procurement. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene market price in recent days Or it will continue to increase.

Product: propylene market rebounded this week, and the cost side has certain support for PP. Domestic logistics is also gradually recovering. At present, the manufacturers are consuming inventory smoothly, the pressure of petrochemical factory inventory has been relieved, and the confidence of the operators has been boosted. In terms of demand, the downstream factories have resumed work one after another, the factory’s operating rate has increased, and there is a phenomenon of replenishment. Producers and distributors are stable in mind, and it’s OK to go single.

3、 Future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: this week, the domestic PP spot market shows a trend of first restraining and then rising. The upstream propylene price bottomed out and rebounded, which has some support for the cost side. The resistance of Limited Logistics and transportation is small, and the resumption of downstream factories is accelerated. The demand has improved, the stock of petrochemical plants has decreased, the operators are on the market, and the orders are stable. It is expected that the PP market will continue to adjust in a narrow range in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the market of cost end propylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 27, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9680 yuan / ton, with a 1.18% month on month drop in price and a 2.84% year-on-year increase.

2、 Market analysis

Product: BDO market in China is light. The unit starts at a low level, and the downstream load is also not high, showing the illusion that supply and demand are weak. In fact, the BDO inventory is high and pressure bearing, and the manufacturer’s shipping mentality is low. However, the downstream receiving capacity is poor, the actual single delivery and investment are weak, and a very small amount of low price transactions are heard. The listing guidance in March is general. There are differences between the mentality of both the supplier and the demander. The supplier is more stable, the demander is more bearish, the supply-demand game is a hacksaw, the operator is multi-dimensional and stable, waiting for more information and guidance.

In terms of market, BDO market in South China is waiting to be sorted out. The inventory in the site is under pressure, the downstream load is low, and the consumption capacity is very weak. Under the support of some manufacturers’ shipping mentality, a small amount of low-cost negotiation is kept, and the overall stability is the main factor. The BDO market in East China was consolidated and operated. At present, the on-site inventory is still at a high level, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the spot delivery is difficult. It is heard that the inventory is sold at a low price, but the overall situation is still stable.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, methanol market narrow range finishing, good transaction atmosphere. The main price in Inner Mongolia has stabilized to 1600-1650 yuan / ton spot exchange, mainly for olefins. Guanzhong region is mainly maintained at 1650-1700 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, and the contract is mainly executed in the second half of the week. The latest price in Ningxia this week is 1650 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, with general negotiation atmosphere. The price of main olefin factory in Xinjiang is 1640 yuan / ton.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market is in stable operation as a whole, and the production enterprises are actively shipping. At present, the mainstream factory price in Wuhai is 2700-2750. It is known that there will be a reduction of 50 yuan / ton in North China, which will aggravate the overall bearish mentality of the market. At present, the downstream demand of calcium carbide has not recovered, the demand is weak, and the overall trend is weak and hard to change. It is expected that the market price of calcium carbide will be reduced.

3、 Future forecast

At present, in order to promote reform, the supplier has a clear attitude of supporting the market and seeking stability; in order to reduce the cost pressure in the downstream, the bearish expectation increases. However, the demand in the middle and lower reaches is light, and there is no substantial trading for reference. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market is mainly stable, focusing on downstream commencement and actual single transaction.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price fell slightly, offering 45518.33 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from the previous day, down 8.81% year on year. Shanghai copper main contract rebounded after a correction of 45670 yuan today, closing at 45950 yuan, up 0.15%.

2、 Market analysis

Recent copper price low volatility. Today, the spot copper price continued to fall, traders trading cold, downstream consumption is still weak, the overall market turnover is not ideal. The most direct and important impact of the epidemic on the fundamentals of electrolytic copper is the delay in resumption of work, which is more than 10 days later for most enterprises. The postponement of resumption has limited impact on smelting enterprises, but has a greater impact on downstream copper processing enterprises.

About 42% of the enterprises in the lower reaches of copper recovered to 60% – 90% of the normal production level, about 27% to 30% – 60% of the normal production level, and about 26% to 0-30% of the normal production level. In addition, due to the slow recovery of downstream copper enterprises, the cumulative range and time rate of domestic refined copper inventory exceeded expectations.

3、 Future prospects

According to the above situation, copper analysts of non ferrous branch of business society think that the epidemic has hindered the rebound of copper price, and the whole industry chain is worried, from miners to equipment providers. However, with the control of the epidemic situation, the downstream gradually returned to work, and supported by the reduction of production or maintenance of copper smelters, the short-term copper price shocks are relatively strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 25, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12875 yuan / ton, down 0.96% month on month and 11.97% year on year. The overall market is weak.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the aggregate MDI market as a whole continues to be weak in consolidation, and some operators are not optimistic about future market expectations, and the market offers frequently at low prices. Near the end of the month, agents offer cautious, accompanied by shipping based, but the market atmosphere is quiet, inquiry buy too little. Near the end of the month, we will wait and see the supplier’s factory price guidelines and policies. The current situation of downstream demand leads to the spread of pessimism in the future.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI in North China is weak, waiting for the market to open in an all-round way. Traders carefully wait for offers, logistics and transportation gradually smooth, but the overall market inquiry atmosphere is not good. Near the end of the month, wait and see the manufacturer’s new moon listing price. The aggregate MDI market in East China is weak, waiting for the market to open in an all-round way. There are few on-site inquiries and occasional small orders. Traders are cautious to wait and see the delivery near the end of the month. The overall market atmosphere continues to be quiet. South China aggregate MDI market weakness consolidation. The atmosphere is quiet and there are only a few downstream inquiry buyers. The operators are waiting to see the market return to work in an all-round way. Near the end of the month, wait and see the price listed by the manufacturer.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the pure benzene gold plate fell sharply, the market mentality was poor, and the market in East China was weak. However, the delivery of the refineries is acceptable, and the price remains stable. The main stream of Shandong market is 5200 yuan / ton.

Aniline: the shipment of aniline factory is general, and the downstream demand is weak, so it is difficult to boost the market. At present, aniline manufacturers are mainly de stocking, and the price is stable. The mainstream price of Shandong aniline is 7000 yuan / ton spot exchange, 7140 yuan / ton acceptance, and 7300 yuan / ton acceptance in East China market.

3、 Future forecast

Business club point of view: near the end of the month, we all wait and see the supplier’s factory price guidelines and policies. At present, this downstream demand situation leads to the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the future. MDI analysts of business club aggregation expect that the price weakness of short-term domestic aggregation MDI market will continue.

Market Overview:

 
According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong remained strong, with an average price of about 2400 yuan / ton as of February 25, up 26.32% from 1900 yuan / ton on February 11.

Market analysis:

Products: due to the impact of enterprise parking, the spot supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, including 440000 T / a plant in Jinling, Shandong, 40000 t / a plant in Jinmao, Dongying, 400000 T / a plant in Luxi Chemical, and 280000 T / a plant in Dongyue, Shandong. In addition, the logistics and transportation have just recovered, and the enterprise’s shipment is still not smooth, which depends on the inventory pricing. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2380-2400 yuan / ton; that in Jiangsu is about 2900 yuan / ton; that in Jiangxi is about 2750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the terminal enterprises in the natural gas market have a high enthusiasm for returning to work, the market demand has increased, the overall trading has turned better, and the liquid price has increased continuously, at present, about 3190 yuan / ton; with the opening of domestic logistics and transportation, the trading atmosphere in the domestic methanol market has changed, and the trading volume has been significantly increased, at present, about 2022 yuan / ton; the overall supply and demand of the liquid chlorine market are weak, and the enterprise has a firm price mentality Strong but poor trading in the industry, currently about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is still at a low level, and the intra industry trading is relatively weak; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry are not at a high level, the demand is flat, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, although the dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province stop more and reduce the negative, the enterprise’s inventory pressure is still large, and the enterprise’s shipment depends on the inventory. In addition, the downstream market just needs to be flat, which lacks the support for the price of dichloromethane. It is expected to shake and adjust in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business association, affected by the increase of storage pressure, the domestic acetic acid market continues to weaken. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2500-2650 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2050 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2650-2750 yuan / ton About RMB 2650-2750 / ton for delivery in South China.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, the stock pressure of domestic acetic acid enterprises is generally high, and most enterprises reduce the negative production. With the gradual opening of logistics and transportation, acetic acid production enterprises make more profits to reduce the stock pressure and ship out, the market competition is more intense, but the start-up and recovery of the downstream industry is poor, the overall demand is weak, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is obvious, and the mentality of the industry is empty.

Industry chain: in the upstream, with the opening of domestic logistics and transportation, the trading atmosphere of domestic methanol market has changed, and the volume of transactions is significantly large, at present, about 2022 yuan / ton; the operating rate of domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries is still low, the sales pressure of enterprises is large, and the cost support is insufficient, which is still weak in the short term; PTA spot market accumulation pressure is large, and the oil price stabilizes and recovers The cost support is acceptable, and the operation will fluctuate in the short term.

International: affected by the rise of methanol in North America, the price of acetic acid is firm, around 780 US dollars / ton; affected by the epidemic situation in Asia, the stock of enterprises is high, and the price is about 310-360 US dollars / ton. The supply and demand of European acetic acid market is stable, and the current quotation is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, the current situation of large overall inventory pressure in the industry is difficult to solve effectively in a short period of time. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the downstream market starts to move slowly, and the situation of supply exceeding demand in the acetic acid market will continue. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate in a weak position in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 563 yuan / ton on February 17, and 566 yuan / ton on February 24, with a price increase of 0.59%. On February 24, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.42, which was the same as yesterday. It was 55.38% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.39% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: ammonium sulfate market rose slightly this week. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-700 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-650 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the downstream compound fertilizer market recovered, the enterprise operating rate increased significantly, and the market gradually recovered. The rise in raw material prices pushed up the price of compound fertilizer. Transportation has improved slightly, and transportation capacity has gradually recovered.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the seventh week of 2020 (2.17-2.21), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (8.74%), propylene (8.45%) and ethanol (6.16%). There are 19 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were hydrogen peroxide (- 4.78%), acetic acid (- 4.24%) and TDI (- 4.05%). This week’s average was 0.1%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of ammonium sulphate of the business association, the market of coking grade ammonium sulphate is getting better gradually, the supply of domestic grade ammonium sulphate is in short supply, the starting price is low, and the manufacturers are actively pricing up. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will increase slightly in the later stage, and the weak finishing of the domestic grade ammonium sulfate will be the main one.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium carbonate was stable on the 24th. The production enterprises in Sichuan and Jiangxi started one after another, with limited downstream demand and strong on-site waiting atmosphere. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on February 24 was 43900 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Friday (February 21), down 39.86% compared with the same period last year. On February 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51200 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Friday (February 21), down 38.46% compared with the same period last year. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 41500-47000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 50000-52000 yuan / ton.

On February 24, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 111.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.39% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.51% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the price list of bulk commodities on February 24, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are fluorite (6.84%), urea (3.17%) and hydrochloric acid (2.81%). There are 14 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were hydrogen peroxide (- 8.36%), chloroform (- 2.44%) and phenol (- 1.81%). The average rise and fall of this day is 0.03%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, the market inventory of lithium carbonate is still there at present, and the downstream demand is recovering slowly, but there is no obvious improvement. It is expected that the market of lithium carbonate will stabilize temporarily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market continued to wait and see. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 21, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9950 yuan / ton, up 1.57% month on month, up 5.64% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market continues to run light this week. Crane coal shut down on February 17 due to the fault, and Meike phase III shut down. The overall start-up was maintained at about 54.4%, down from last week. At the same time, the production enterprises mostly wait for the downstream start-up to adjust the start-up control inventory. The main downstream PBT and PTMEG are still at a low level, and other downstream production is slow to resume. In addition, long-distance transportation is difficult to recover effectively in a short period of time, the factory inventory is under pressure, and the shipment is difficult. Although there are a small number of orders, due to the sluggish terminal demand, the transportation is still limited, and the actual single trading is weak. With high inventory, most downstream stocks are expected to be bearish, and the game between supply and demand is still a major concern at present. Since the 17th, the road has been exempted from vehicle tolls, but in view of the restrictions on construction and transportation in some areas, the attitude of the operators is more negative.

In terms of equipment, this week, Heci stopped due to air separation unit failure on February 17, and the restart time was not determined; Kaixiang load dropped to 70%; Meike phase III stopped, and phase I and phase II units operated stably; Tianye phase I 30000 ton units operated normally, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; the current load of Dongyuan is 40%; the first phase of Tunhe river is shut down, the second phase is 5-60%; the load of Shaanxi chemical industry is 60%; the load of new industry is stable to 4.3%; the load of Guotai is heard to be 6-70%. The overall market operating rate this week is around 54.4%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the market of methanol and methanol rose partially, and the trading atmosphere improved. The main transaction price in Inner Mongolia increased to 1500-1550 yuan / ton, the shipment was relatively smooth, the logistics and transportation gradually recovered, and the starting load of downstream olefin plants also increased. The centralized price of enterprises in Guanzhong region is 1500-1600 yuan / ton, and the low-end transaction is good. Ningxia, Xinjiang and other regions rose in the week, mainly supplying olefins. In terms of equipment, Baoji Changqing plans to raise the load to 80% for operation, while other load reduction enterprises have no new adjustment. At present, part of the industry has copied the bottom and entered the market, and the factory has a strong mentality.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market showed regional uneven rise and fall, which was mainly caused by the different arrival conditions of different parts of the transportation recovery. This week, the ex factory price in Wuhai area was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price this week was 2750-2800 yuan / ton. However, recently, the delivery was slow, and the production enterprises have a backlog of inventory. The main reason is that the arrival volume of downstream PVC purchasing enterprises keeps increasing, and the policy of high-speed fee free also reduces part of the transportation cost, and the purchasing enterprises reduce their mentality. And the downstream PVC high storage pressure, the price is weak and difficult to change, control cost expenditure, calcium carbide price is difficult to have high price support. However, the price of upstream Lancan began to rise this week, with an increase of 30-50 yuan / ton. It is expected that the trend of carbide market will be initially lowered next week, and the number of trucks to be unloaded will continue to increase.

3、 Future forecast

This week, although the factory reduced the load, but the inventory has accumulated more than one month, and the low-level construction of each downstream, short-term replenishment demand is very small. Under the pressure of high inventory, manufacturers are in a state of mind of storing and shipping, but they are in a weak position in terms of receiving orders in essence, and most of the lower reaches have more bearish expectations, so they have strong resistance to high prices. Although the downstream construction and transportation have slightly improved, the contradiction between supply and demand is still intensifying. BDO analysts of business cooperatives predict that the domestic BDO market is still stable in the short term. In the long term, there is no excluding the risk of a downturn. Specifically, pay attention to the downstream resumption and transportation progress.