On January 6, in the context of the continued intensification of the US Iraq conflict, international oil prices continued to rise, and domestic energy and chemical futures rose across the board. By the end of the day, the main contracts of fuel oil futures were up and down in 2005, the main contracts of crude oil futures were up 5.69%, the main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures were up nearly 5%, and the main contracts of methanol, glycol and PTA futures were up more than 2%.

Market participants believe that the performance of domestic energy and chemical futures on Monday is within market expectations. In the context of overlapping global political cycles, geopolitics is likely to become one of the main factors affecting crude oil prices throughout this year. Oil prices fluctuate or intensify. Investors should keep rational and pay attention to risk prevention and control.

After yesterday’s closing, the Institute and its subsidiary, ine, issued a notice saying that the international situation in recent days is complex and changeable, and there are many uncertain factors affecting the operation of the market, requiring all relevant units to do a good job in risk prevention, rational investment, and maintain the smooth operation of the market.

On Friday (January 3), the United States launched a rocket attack on the International Airport in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Qasim Sulaimani, commander of the “Holy City Brigade” under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran, was “cleared at designated points” in the attack, while Abu Mehdi muhandis, deputy commander of the Iraqi Shiite militia group “people’s mobilization organization”, was also killed. Several senior Iranian officials later warned of retaliation against the United States. As a result, international oil prices rose sharply and rapidly.

On January 5, the national assembly of Iraq held a special meeting to pass a resolution on ending the presence of foreign troops such as the United States in Iraq. On the same day, the Iranian government announced a complete suspension of the implementation of the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. Analysts believe that this is a series of actions such as US air strikes on Shiite forces in Iraq and “targeted clearance” of senior Iranian general Sulaimani. The United States is likely to take a tough response to this, and the tension in the Middle East is likely to escalate further.

In this context, the international community’s concern about the spillover of tensions between the United States and Iraq to the whole Middle East region has gradually increased, which has further boosted the risk appetite of the global market. The price of gold, a safe haven asset, has risen substantially, and the price of crude oil has continued to rise. Yesterday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures electronic market both jumped short and opened wide oscillation, ine crude oil futures main 2005 contract intraday trading limit, closing up more than 5%.

“Compared with foreign crude oil futures, ine crude oil futures increased significantly, which is related to the fact that the delivery varieties of ine crude oil futures are mostly Middle East oil.” Wang Xiao, director of crude oil research at Guotai Junan Futures, told the futures daily that at present, the US Iraq conflict has not spread to the Middle East and has not affected Iraq’s crude oil production and export, “the recent rise of international oil prices is mainly affected by geopolitics.”.

In the view of she Jianyue, assistant general manager of Yide futures, the Middle East, with one-third of the world’s oil production and nearly half of the world’s oil reserves, has always been the main place of geopolitical events, and the current market sentiment is dominated by concerns about Iran’s follow-up counter-measures.

“In the short to medium term, any emergency in the Middle East region will lead to rising market concerns, which will lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices.” Yan Wenguang, head of the energy and chemical business department of Lufeng futures, said that the notice of risk prompt issued by the previous period office and its subsidiaries in time would help all parties in the market to strengthen their understanding of the current market risk and make rational investment. In the face of large fluctuations in oil prices, industrial institutions should actively use crude oil futures and other related tools to hedge risks.

Yang an, head of energy and chemical research and development of Haitong futures, said that in the fourth quarter of 2019, affected by the global economy’s unexpected recovery and OPEC + deepening production reduction expectations, crude oil prices fluctuated upward, which had been showing a situation of complete digestion and inability to continue upward, but the recent us Iraq conflict changed the operation logic of crude oil prices. In the short term, the mainland margin politics will dominate the oil price trend.

According to Wang Xiao, there are multiple overlapping political cycles in the world this year, and geopolitics may affect oil prices throughout the year.

In response to the withdrawal request of the Iraqi parliament, President trump threatened that the Iraqi government needs to pay for the long-term presence of the U.S. military, otherwise the U.S. military will not withdraw. He also said that even if the U.S. forces withdraw from Iraq later, the U.S. will sanction Iraq on a large scale. U.S. officials have yet to make a statement about Iran’s announcement to suspend the implementation of its nuclear agreement, but the U.S. side has taken a strong stance against Iran. Trump warned Iran that if Iran attacks US personnel or facilities, the US will carry out a swift attack on 52 Iranian targets. Analysts pointed out that the confrontation between the United States and Iran is becoming increasingly acute, gradually changing from an “agent” model to a direct conflict. The conflict between the two countries will not only affect the security and stability of Iraq, but also may spill over to other countries in the Middle East.

“Judging from the current situation, there are still variables in the follow-up to the US Iraq conflict, and the volatility of commodity prices such as crude oil will intensify.” GUI Chenxi, a crude oil analyst at CITIC futures, reminded investors to strengthen risk prevention and control, pay attention to controlling positions and invest rationally.

OPEC’s oil production fell in December last year as several Gulf oil producers stepped up their production cuts aimed at balancing the global oil market, Bloomberg News Agency London reported.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates cut their oil production in December last year, the last month of a round of restrictions imposed by OPEC before it continued to implement new and even more stringent production restrictions this year.

According to Bloomberg’s survey of government officials, ship tracking data and consulting companies such as lesta energy and JBC energy, OPEC’s oil production fell 90000 barrels a day in December to 29.55 million barrels a month.

Despite the emergence of a large number of new US shale oil and weak fuel demand around the world, OPEC and its allies’ efforts to tighten supply in 2019 boosted the global crude oil market, pushing Brent crude oil prices up 23%. Earlier last month, the alliance agreed to deepen its restrictions to prevent a new oversupply in the first quarter of this year.

According to the survey, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member, is moving towards a new goal. Saudi Arabia’s current oil production is 9.83 million barrels per day, more than twice the amount promised in last year’s production reduction agreement, and is now moving steadily towards its own new quota of 9.7 million barrels.

In December, the UAE also cut production by 60000 barrels a day to 3.04 million barrels a day on average, exceeding the requirements of the upcoming production reduction agreement.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in China was relatively stable in December, and the price of each brand rose or fell slightly. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12666.67 yuan / ton, which is the same as the level at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 bottomed out this month, and the whole plate was running. Upstream pure benzene strong rise, caprolactam by this boost, pure benzene spot tight support price high. At present, the domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made clear that the offer is not large enough to supply the downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. South China cyclohexanone market rebounded slightly, following the upstream trend, the supply of goods decreased to some extent, the trend of pure benzene gave cost support, driving caprolactam up slightly, but the end demand has not changed. It is expected that caprolactam will rise slightly after low-level finishing in the later stage; caprolactam in the upstream will rebound and support PA6. At present, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The atmosphere in the market is quiet and businesses operate cautiously. In December, the domestic PA6 spot market moved slightly across the board.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in December, the domestic PA6 market is relatively stable, and the spot price is less volatile. The upstream caprolactam rebounded, and the cost end of PA6 was acceptable. Downstream factory replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand, with slow demand and slow tracking. It is expected that PA6 will continue to consolidate in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be stable in December, with relatively low prices. As of December 31st, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 medium viscosity injection grade was about 23087.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

PA66 upstream. This month, the market of adipic acid continued to hold a stalemate, with little change in prices in most regions, and some of the prices rose. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring a rebound to the downstream adipic acid, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks, as of December 27, the rebound of this month was more than 8%, but the cost transmission effect was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the price of pure benzene rising, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers were compressed, and at the same time, they were trapped in the weak demand, and the price did not Rising, this confirms the extremely weak situation of the market; this month, PA66 market is still dominated by horizontal consolidation. The spot market is still abundant, and the terminal market is still just in need of goods. There are few inquiries from downstream factories, and the atmosphere is quiet. The business is mainly wait-and-see, but the mentality hasn’t changed. Most orders are flexible.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: December domestic PA66 market sideways consolidation. Weak upstream adipic acid demand continued. Although the decline narrowed, the trend remained stable and weak, with limited support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market atmosphere is quiet, the industry’s wait-and-see mentality is heavy, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 will continue to run horizontally in the near future.

1、 Price trend

After new year’s day, the decline of LNG continued. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3716.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 3 was 3486.67 yuan / ton, down 6.19% in two days, up 35.03% compared with the same period last year. On January 3, the LNG commodity index was 85.94, down 5.67 points from yesterday, 58.87% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 24.82% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 3, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3490 yuan / ton, and that of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3470 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2600 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd It’s 3500 yuan / ton. Liquid prices rise and fall with each other. Liquid prices rise and fall with each other across the country, and the overall decline.

Market analysis: this year’s new year’s Day holiday time is only one day, the time is short, the demand has not improved. After the festival, the trend of LNG is still weak. On December 27, PetroChina auctioned, the price of raw materials decreased, and the pressure of manufacturers reduced, but the market was abundant in supply, and the inventory was in a high position, so the manufacturers continued to reduce prices and make shipments. Recently, there are rain, snow and heavy fog in many places in the north, LNG shipment is blocked, tank transportation is not smooth, and air pollution emergency response has been issued in many places, environmental protection “shutdown order” has affected the gas consumption of LNG industry in some areas, and there is no large-scale replenishment demand, pipeline gas is relatively abundant, and LNG price is under pressure. Earlier this year’s new year, the industrial gas consumption will be reduced, the overall market trading is not prosperous, and under the guidance of downstream demand, the trading center will start to move down, and the market is weak and hard to change.

It is reported that from January to November 2019, the national LNG production was monitored and statistics show that: in November 2019, the national LNG production was 1.015 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; in January to November 2019, the national LNG production was 10.573 million tons, a cumulative increase of 15.1%.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on January 2, 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (1.45%), methanol (1.09%) and MTBE (0.62%). There are 6 commodities falling on a month on month basis, with Brent crude oil (- 3.57%), diesel oil (- 1.26%) and WTI crude oil (- 1.01%) as the top three products. The average price of this day was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

According to liquefied natural gas analyst of business association, there is no big gap in the market in the warm winter of this year, and there is abundant supply. Near the end of this year, the market demand is reduced, some enterprises have been repaired, and the imbalance between supply and demand is further intensified. At present, the environmental protection is becoming increasingly strict, the serious problem of heavily polluted natural gas is severe, and the downstream demand is not boosted, so it is expected that liquefied natural gas will continue to bear pressure in the future Downward interest shipment.

1、 Price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of the month was 12750 yuan / ton, and the price of the aggregate MDI at the end of the month was 12925 yuan / ton, up 1.37% in the month, 11.66% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in December, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose first, then fell, and finally became stronger. At the beginning of the month, influenced by the listing prices of major manufacturers, the supply also continued to be limited, the price of the goods holders was on the high side, the market price continued to rise slightly, and the upward trend lasted for about 10 days. After all, the demand side was not supported enough, the downstream high price was in conflict, and the transaction atmosphere turned weak. After the middle of the month, the market began to move sideways. In addition, due to the low quotation of imported Japanese and Korean futures, and the impact of the middleman’s urgent shipment, the market price began to decline. However, under the limited supply of the supplier, the quotation of the first-class traders in the field is still firm, and they are reluctant to sell and ship. After the second ten days of the month, the main factories successively announced the listing prices in January 2020, and the listing prices of the main factories were significantly reduced. However, the supply volume continued to discount on the basis of the supply in December, and the market price turned from a negative decline to a slight upward trend. However, the middlemen and the downstream are now slightly in conflict with the high prices, and the intention to store goods is not great. However, due to the limited supply of goods, the first-class agent is reluctant to sell at a high price. It is difficult for the actual negotiated transaction price to go up substantially.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene: in the month, affected by the weak profit of Aromatics Complex, some PX plants in China shut down production and the by-product pure benzene production decreased. Due to the same reason, the load of PX in South Korea decreased and the production of pure benzene decreased, resulting in the low export volume to China. East China’s port inventory further fell to around 78000 tons. As a result, the domestic spot price was tight in the month, and the market price continued to rise from 5450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 6000 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of last month, due to the lower than expected short covering and the impact of arrival of the port, the market price fell. By 31, the main negotiation in East China was 5750-5820 yuan / ton.

Aniline: in terms of aniline, in the first ten days of the month, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the inventory pressure of aniline enterprises in North China is large, the downstream is mainly waiting for purchasing on demand, with a strong attitude of waiting to fall, and the factory’s delivery price is falling. In mid month, aniline rebounded and fell. With the wide rise of raw material pure benzene and the loss of aniline profit, the factory has no intention of price reduction. The downstream actively inquires and buys on the cheap, which makes the inventory of aniline factory release rapidly and the price rebound. However, the downstream demand follow-up was insufficient, the aniline factory inventory was high, and the market fell. In the last ten days of the month, some enterprises in the lower reaches of Henan Province shut down more and demand is poor. However, the profit of aniline plant continues to lose, the load is not high, and the output is low, so the price has a smooth transition. But new year’s Day is approaching, the market is light, the factory inventory is increasing, and the price is slightly weakening.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in December 2019, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there were 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities were propane (27.23%), crude benzene (11.66%) and pure benzene (10.94%). There are a total of 50 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, and 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the top 3 falls are sulfur (-17.03%), lithium hydroxide (-13.50%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.64%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.87%.

3、 Future forecast

Business club point of view: Kesi Chuang factory announced the price after the festival, it is understood that it should also cooperate with the trend of other factories. The on-site agents offer high prices, the delivery is cautious, and the sporadic small orders are concluded. Middlemen and the downstream are also rational about the current market price, and there is no hoarding behavior. At present, the price has an upward trend, the force of the supplier is large, and the demand side is difficult to support. MDI analysts predict that the domestic MDI market is difficult to fall in price in short term, but the actual negotiated transaction price is also difficult to rise significantly.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

In the first three quarters, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated repeatedly, and the price of asphalt market fluctuated upward, from 3434 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3640 yuan / ton at the end of September. First of all, in 2019, the international crude oil market surged, the Sino US trade relations were uncertain, the crude oil market “black swan” events occurred frequently, OPEC production reduction twists and turns, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was pending, many factors affected the oil market, the oil price also showed UPS and downs, twists and turns, the domestic asphalt market is also cyclical, ups and downs. Secondly, in January and February, when the road construction stagnated, there was an increase in the demand for asphalt storage in winter; in April and may, when the road engineering was centralized and launched, there was a sharp drop in the price of crude oil, which restricted the upward trend of asphalt; in July and August, when the crude oil stabilized and the market sentiment began to improve, the demand of asphalt market was affected by rainfall in many places. On the whole, the first three quarters of the asphalt market mixed with many empty news, and the asphalt market fluctuated upward, but basically in line with the upward trend of the market price focus in the peak season.

In the fourth quarter, the domestic asphalt market price showed a unilateral downward trend, from 3640 yuan / ton to 3384 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a drop of 7.05%. In terms of international crude oil, Saudi Arabia continued to release the signal of production reduction, and superimposed the phased results of Sino US trade negotiations. The future trade environment is expected to be improved, and oil prices continue to rise moderately. However, the overall demand of asphalt market shows a gradual downward trend, and the domestic spot price of asphalt began to turn downward in October, and low-cost goods from Northeast China and Shandong successively poured into East China, further impacting the spot price of East China market. Until the end of November, the overall performance was that traders expected to be pessimistic, mainly in wait-and-see mood, only purchasing on demand, and the pressure gradually emerged. Although the crude oil at the cost end stabilized again in December, the profit of coking material has been better than that of asphalt, and the traders have no intention of replenishing the storage, and the winter storage season is far away. Asphalt bottoming stabilized in December.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that the price trend of the asphalt Market in 2019 is generally in line with the trend of the asphalt lean season. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the total planned investment of the national highway is 9.7 trillion, while from January 2016 to October 2019, the total planned investment of the national highway is 7.8 trillion, accounting for 80% of the plan, and 20% of the plan still needs to be completed. The uncertainty of asphalt price in 2020 still comes from the relationship between crude oil price and asphalt supply and demand. In 2019, the international oil price is expected to increase by a limited margin. Therefore, it is predicted that the price focus of asphalt market will be limited in 2020.

On January 1, the rare earth index was 341, which was flat with yesterday, 65.90% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 25.83% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 367000 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 4000 yuan / ton to 280000 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1750000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 337500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 291000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 3000 yuan / ton to 359000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.72 million yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market is stable, the domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, and the export of heavy and rare earth has improved. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply has decreased, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth remains high. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable domestic support for the export of rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will mainly fluctuate.

Commodity index: on December 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.81% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15950 yuan / ton, and on December 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.1% this month.

Industry chain: upstream: at the beginning of December, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market fluctuated and increased, with the quotation of 10500 yuan / ton on the first day and 12000 yuan / ton on the fourth day; the price has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton since the middle of the year; 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton on the ninth day, 150 yuan / ton to 11350 yuan / ton on the 16th day, and 50 yuan / ton to 11300 yuan / ton on the 20th day, near the end of the month and 30 days The price of acrylonitrile in the second half of the year ended with 11200 yuan / ton. From the market trend of the second half of the year, the high price appeared in the late September, and the price began to be reduced in a step-by-step manner in October. In general, the price was reduced by 2000-3000 yuan / ton in six months, with a volatility of about 15%. This month, the market volatility was first up and then down. Downstream: in winter, the construction of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a great impact. At present, it has entered the coldest three or nine days of the year. The Spring Festival is not far away, and the construction will usher in the most slack season. Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, received the notice from January 19 to January 1, 2020, all of which were shut down, and the manufacturer had relatively sufficient stock. However, due to the shutdown of vehicles under the fifth five year plan, the freight cost increased, and the market price of polyacrylamide of the manufacturer increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the construction volume is getting less and less from the current Spring Festival holiday, and the downstream procurement is about to be greatly reduced. The price reduction of acrylonitrile is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. The period of production suspension of Gongyi factory in Henan Province expires immediately, and the supply of goods is not in shortage. After new year’s day, the production will continue to increase, and the transportation cost will not be reduced. To sum up, the future market price of polyacrylamide should be stable, not excluding the possibility of weakness, and pay attention to the start-up and inventory of manufacturers after new year’s day.

Commodity index: on December 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.61% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.89% from 100.90, the lowest point on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 31, 2019, the mainstream market price of polyaluminium chloride (fixed, content ≥ 28%) was about 1833.33 yuan / ton. On December 1, the mainstream market price was 1950 yuan / ton, and the overall price of this month was reduced by 3.42%.

Price situation: the mainstream monitoring manufacturers of the business association, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market continued to be lowered in December. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the price of polyaluminium chloride continued to decline after returning to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in six months, the lowest price was 1833.33 yuan / ton on the second half of December, and the highest price was 2016.67 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com) on the commodity, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is mainly concentrated in: the quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) with tax is about 1800-2200 yuan / ton, the quotation of liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) with tax is about 380-450 yuan / ton, and the freight of some manufacturers in Henan is increased this month, so the quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton Right, but some traders in North China have reduced their quotation by 200 yuan / ton due to the lower procurement cost in the early stage.

Industrial chain: in the six months from July to December, when the starting rate of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers is high, the production is normal, the quantity of goods is sufficient and the demand growth is stable in July, the supply is surplus and the price is down; since the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the starting of manufacturers is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues to the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. In general, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride in the fourth quarter dropped slightly; the trend in November was similar to the “Z” shape of the extended version; the price in December fell to 1833.33 yuan / ton steadily. Among the upstream raw materials, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business association rose sharply in 2019, while the price in December was reduced by about 40 yuan / ton, 290 yuan / ton on December 1, 253 yuan / ton on December 31, down 12.64%. Downstream, in the winter construction off-season, the purchase volume is sharply reduced, the quantity of polyaluminium chloride is sufficient, the cost is reduced, and the supporting effect on the price of polyaluminium chloride is weakened.

Industry: this round of intermittent production stoppage started in late July has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production one after another. This round of production stoppage cycle returns, and the production is stopped again in four seasons according to the requirements of environmental protection: in late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production stoppage, which requires: according to the environmental pollution status of the whole city and the pollution weather in the future According to the situation analysis, the municipal office requires all deep governance enterprises to stop production and governance before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. 2. After resumption of production, the production will be stopped again: the production will be resumed for ten days in August, and it will be stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the production stop is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 4. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business agency shows that the lower upstream raw material price is conducive to the manufacturer’s control of production costs. After the new year’s day in 2020, the Gongyi manufacturer in Henan Province will restart, the supply of goods will increase, and the supply of goods will be sufficient, while the winter construction determines the reduction of the downstream procurement. To sum up, polyaluminium chloride market shock weak trend, pay attention to the start-up and inventory situation of manufacturers in the future.