1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market continued to be weak, with the main downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 4566.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 4400 yuan / ton, down 3.65% in the week, with the price rising 3.53% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic liquefied gas market fell continuously this week, with general trading atmosphere. As of January 17. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4450 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4420 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan / ton Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 4500 yuan / ton.

This week, China’s overall liquefied gas cut. International crude oil fell this week, playing a negative role in the liquefied gas market, affecting the market mentality. As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers need to store and arrange before the festival. At the beginning of the week, the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light, and prices continue to fall. With the price falling low, downstream bargain hunting to replenish the market, the weekend market trading atmosphere slightly improved, and the market decline slowed down. There is no obvious change in the terminal demand, but the demand for replenishment and storage in the downstream before the festival.

Saudi Aramco’s January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 / T, up $125 / T from last month, and butane to $590 / T, up $135 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are methanol (3.43%), dimethyl ether (2.98%) and liquefied natural gas (0.76%). There are 7 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were liquefied gas (- 3.65%), petroleum coke (- 3.42%) and naphtha (- 1.80%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers need to store, arrange and ship goods continuously. At present, with the price reduction, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, the manufacturer’s shipment has also improved, and the overall sales volume has increased, but the demand for inventory and inventory is still there. In February, CP price is expected to fall, the international market trend is weak, and the support for liquefied gas market is limited. It is expected that if there is no obvious positive in the short term, there is still the possibility of falling.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3136.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3230 yuan / ton, up 2.98% in the week, and the price was 5.37% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: on Tuesday, the transaction atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market was active. As of January 17, Hebei Yutai, Henan lankaohuitong, Shanxi Lanhua science and Technology Co., Ltd. and other devices had been shut down for maintenance; Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether device failed, so no offer was made temporarily. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3380 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3360 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3530 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3540 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3300 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market for methyl ether rose as a whole, and the market operating rate continued to be low, about 15%, with less overall market supply. At present, some manufacturers park out of stock. Spring Festival holiday is coming, terminal stock demand, enthusiasm into the market is better. Methanol market trend rose this week, futures rose strongly, boosting the mentality of factories in the mainland. The region actively pushed up, trading was smooth, which played a positive role in DME market. This week, the international crude oil fell mainly, the liquefied gas market continued to decline, and the gap between gas and ether continued to widen, which affected the DME market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are methanol (3.43%), dimethyl ether (2.98%) and liquefied natural gas (0.76%). There are 7 commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were liquefied gas (- 3.65%), petroleum coke (- 3.42%) and naphtha (- 1.80%). This week’s average was – 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the weakness of international crude oil is declining, and the demand of civil gas manufacturers for storage and discharge before the festival is still weak, which limits the rise of dimethyl ether. However, there is a demand for replenishment at the DME terminal, the manufacturer’s shipment continues to be good, and the mentality is relatively strong. In addition, the cost of methanol continues to rise, which is good for the market. It is expected that the market will continue to rise in the near future, and the range may be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

The propane market fell broadly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propane market was 4992.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 4730 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.26% in the week. The price was 12.62% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic propane Market Transaction atmosphere this week is average. As of January 17, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not quoted temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 5000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4770 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4800 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4750 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propane of Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4650 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4700 yuan / ton.

The Spring Festival holiday is coming, and propane is mainly discharged in Shandong this week, with prices falling continuously. This week, the overall decline of international crude oil affected the market mentality. Before the festival, the manufacturer needs to store and arrange the stock, continuously reduce the price and give priority to profit delivery. Downstream demand continued to be sluggish, with more wait-and-see in the early part of the week. As prices continued to fall, the enthusiasm for market entry picked up in the late part of the week. However, due to the excessive rise in the early stage, it is still at a relatively high level. Although the import gas has been reduced, the cost is high and the falling space is limited.

Saudi Aramco’s January CP reported a sharp rise in both propylene and butane. Propane rose to $565 / T, up $125 / T from last month, and butane to $590 / T, up $135 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17) in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the chemical industry sector, the top three commodities rising are acetone (4.08%), acetic acid (3.92%) and dichloromethane (3.63%). There are 24 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first 3 drops are glycol (-5.93%), propane (-5.26%) and ammonium chloride (-3.91%). This week’s average was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

The decline of international crude oil is bad for the market. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, most of the storage, discharge and storage needs of refineries continue to yield profits and shipments. As the price falls, the enthusiasm for downstream market entry has improved. However, the import cost is at a high level, and the space for yield is limited. It is expected that the decline will continue next week, with a small range.

Recently, the price of rare earth in China has remained stable, and the market price of some light rare earth has increased slightly. The price trend of some rare earth products in China is shown as follows:

Recently, the price trend of heavy rare earth market in China is stable, as of the 16th, the price of dysprosium oxide is 1.7 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.685 million yuan / ton; the price of some light rare earth market in China is also rising, the price of neodymium oxide as of the 16th is 292000 yuan / ton, the price trend is stable; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 358000 yuan / ton, the price trend is stable; the price of praseodymium neodymium neodymium oxide is 279000 yuan/ The price of neodymium increased by 500 yuan / ton to 367500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price trend of heavy rare earth in China has been stable, and some prices in light rare earth market have risen. Affected by favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has maintained a high level.

On January 15, the rare earth index was 338, unchanged from yesterday, 66.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
Recently, the price of rare earth in the market has risen sharply. The supply policy of domestic market of heavy rare earth has improved. The domestic market of heavy rare earth is very good. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has rebounded, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth in the near future is general, and the market price has not increased much. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

In November 2018, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy And the development of the world economy. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market remained high and volatile.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, coupled with favorable domestic support for the export of rare earth industry, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high after the Spring Festival, and the trend of light rare earth market will be improved.

On January 16, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 122.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.39% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 71.22% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: after the new year’s day, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a wave of rising trend. Due to the poor demand, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been callback after the rise. As of January 16, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1130 yuan / ton, down 0.88% from the beginning of the week and up 2.11% from the beginning of the month.

market analysis

In January, the price of hydrogen peroxide terminal hexanoyl increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down, and the manufacturers raised their prices for sales. The price of hydrogen peroxide increased by more than 5 points. With the Spring Festival approaching, the terminal demand will fall, and after the surge of hydrogen peroxide, there will be a callback. The market of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong and Anhui is relatively stable, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei continues to fall.

As of January 16, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1090 yuan / ton; the price is 20 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of January.

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1000 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton lower than that in early January.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1300 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that in early January.

Hunan Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hunan Shuangyang is 1250 yuan / ton, the same as that in early January.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price is 1200 yuan / ton, the price is the same as that in early January.

Industry chain: the price of caprolactam at the end of hydrogen peroxide continues to decline in a weak way. The paper and textile printing enterprises have been shut down for holidays in succession. The purchase of hydrogen peroxide is less, the demand is greatly reduced, the price of hydrogen peroxide is weak, the inventory of production enterprises in some regions is low, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in other enterprises continues to decline in a weak way.

Outlook for the future

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club believe that: the Spring Festival is coming, there is basically no market for hydrogen peroxide before the festival, and it is mainly weak and stable. In the short term after the festival, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still difficult to rise.

On January 13, China Petroleum Group Institute of economics and technology, a national high-end think tank, held a press conference on the development report of domestic and foreign oil and gas industries in 2019 in Beijing. According to the report, in 2019, the total refining capacity will rise to 860 million tons / year, while the total ethylene capacity will break through 30 million tons / year for the first time, and the excess refining capacity will become increasingly fierce. According to the current projects under construction and approved for construction and planning, China’s refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons / year in 2025, and its ethylene capacity will exceed 50 million tons / year, ranking first in the world in terms of both surpassing the United States.

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the development mode of oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2019, the report considers that there are several characteristics:

domestic

Domestic oil production has stopped falling and picked up, and the rapid increase of oil and gas dependence on foreign countries has been curbed. The situation of domestic exploration and development has improved. In 2019, crude oil production reversed its downward trend for several consecutive years, reaching 191 million tons, an increase of 1.1%; natural gas production is estimated to reach 173.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.8%. Although domestic oil and gas dependence on foreign countries is still rising, the momentum of rapid increase has been curbed.

The domestic oil and gas production is expected to reach 194 million tons and 190 billion cubic meters respectively in 2020. In addition, with the implementation of the national policy of developing clean coal, replacing oil with more energy, and increasing the proportion of terminal power consumption, the external dependence of oil and gas will increase steadily and slowly.

China’s refined oil consumption has entered the stage of medium and low-speed growth, and the pressure of refined oil export continues to increase. In 2019, the dependence of crude oil and oil on foreign countries will double to 70%. The growth rate of domestic consumption of gasoline, diesel and coal products will slow down for various reasons, and the pressure on the export of oil products will increase. In 2020, it is expected that the growth rate of domestic refined oil demand will continue to slow down, the refining capacity will continue to increase, the supply will continue to be surplus, and the net export of refined oil may exceed 60 million tons, surpassing South Korea to become the largest exporter of refined oil in the Asia Pacific region.

New progress has been made in the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system. In 2019, the growth rate of China’s natural gas production was 9.6%, exceeding the growth rate of import, and the degree of foreign dependence was basically the same as that of the previous year. Significant progress has been made in China’s key projects of natural gas infrastructure interconnection, LNG receiving capacity and peak shaving capacity of gas storage. The market-oriented reform of natural gas has been steadily promoted, and the capacity of domestic natural gas safety and supply assurance has been significantly improved. In 2020 and later, with the expansion of China’s natural gas market and the continuous improvement of the degree of marketization, the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system still needs to be continuously improved to further improve the efficiency of resource allocation and supply guarantee capacity.

The excess refining energy tends to be heavy and has the potential to expand to the low-end downstream of refining and chemical integration. In 2019, the total refining capacity will rise to 860 million tons / year, and the total ethylene capacity will break through 30 million tons / year for the first time. The excess refining capacity will become more and more severe. According to the current projects under construction and approved for construction and planning, China’s refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons / year in 2025, and its ethylene capacity will exceed 50 million tons / year, ranking first in the world in terms of both surpassing the United States.

Strategic breakthroughs have been made in international oil and gas cooperation. In 2019, the natural gas pipeline of China Russia east line will take five years to complete and ventilate, and the natural gas from Russia will connect with the main consumer market of Northeast China, Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta; Sinopec, Guanghui energy, new Austria energy and other enterprises will sign a number of long-term LNG supply contracts. The main consumption market of natural gas in the east of China has formed a multi source competition pattern.

The market-oriented reform process of the oil and gas industry has been significantly accelerated. In 2019, the government departments issued a number of policies around the implementation of several opinions on deepening the reform of the oil and gas system to promote the full opening of the oil and gas industry. At the same time, we will comprehensively promote the competitive transfer of mining rights; reform the operation mechanism of oil and gas pipeline network, control the two ends of the middle and open up, deepen the reform of oil and gas price formation mechanism, and strengthen market supervision. The reform of oil and gas industry system and mechanism has broken the original industry barriers, and the implementation of the new policy will further promote the process of marketization.

international

Exerting influence on the global oil and gas market has become an important starting point for the us to carry out the strategy of “US priority”. With the help of energy independence, the United States has strengthened its control and influence over the global oil market. OPEC’s internal cohesion and overall influence declined, and Qatar and Ecuador withdrew successively. Considering comprehensively, although geopolitical factors may lead to short-term and local supply tension and induce price fluctuations, the supply and demand fundamentals do not support the obvious rise of international oil prices.

Global natural gas supply and demand continue to ease. In 2019, the global natural gas trade grew by 9.1%, basically the same as the previous year, and the LNG trade grew by 12.2%, close to twice the growth rate of pipeline gas trade. The linkage of Eurasian market is prominent, and the European NBP price and the Asian LNG spot average price have all declined by about 40%. It is expected that in 2020, global natural gas supply and demand will continue to be relaxed, prices will remain low, and the game between supply and demand sides, traditional and emerging countries will continue to intensify.

The report predicts that in 2020, the global economic trend will remain weak, and the international oil price will maintain a volatile trend. The average Brent crude oil price range is 60-65 USD / barrel. For the unstable global macroeconomic and political situation, especially the trade disputes between the United States and major economies, and the greater uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, it is also possible that the average annual level of international oil prices will fall below 50 US dollars per barrel or rise above 75 US dollars per barrel.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid product source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

2、 Market analysis:

On January 15, acrylic acid market was stable. The average price of acrylic acid enterprises as of January 15 was 8200 yuan / ton, which was the same as yesterday, down 3.53% compared with the same period last year, according to the bulk list of business agencies. On the 15th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was around 7500-9300 yuan / ton. On January 15, the acrylic commodity index was 41.12, unchanged from yesterday, 58.88% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 67.36% higher than the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 till now) at present, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business association believe that the price of raw material propylene rose to a high level recently, with strong cost support. Before the downstream Festival, the atmosphere of goods preparation was active, the actual orders were increased, and the market trading was good. It is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be dominated by high and strong operation, and more attention should be paid to upstream and downstream and mainstream market conditions.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on January 15, the spot nickel price fell slightly, with a quotation of 111141.67 yuan / ton, down 1.89% from the previous day, up 20.33% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 109140 yuan, followed by a narrow range of price fluctuations, closing at 109140 yuan, up 0.22%.

2、 Market analysis

LUNI nickel inventory rose to a nine month high and closed down 1.52% overnight in a weak shock. On the supply side, the Philippines, New Caledonia and Guatemala will play an alternative role in nickel import, but they cannot fully meet the demand. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream procurement is becoming increasingly light, the consumption of stainless steel at the end of the year is light, and some steel plants and ferronickel plants reduce production and overhaul. Indonesia’s early ore ban has changed the supply pattern of nickel market, and domestic ferronickel production capacity has shifted to Indonesia.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: the Spring Festival is approaching, there is no obvious demand release in the downstream, there are also less inquirers, supply and demand are weak, and nickel is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term.

Can rely on 6645 yuan / ton of rebound high point test empty

With the recovery of calcium carbide supply after the Spring Festival and the transformation of market supply and demand pattern, PVC may continue the trend of recent correction.

Limited cost support

At the end of each year, due to the rainy and snowy weather in Northwest China and the shortage of transportation capacity before the Spring Festival, there will be structural shortage of calcium carbide supply. This year is no exception. Due to the heavy snow in many places in the north, the road transportation is not smooth, and the delivery of calcium carbide production enterprises is not smooth. In this case, the raw material supply of PVC production enterprises with calcium carbide method is tight, and enterprises start to plunder raw materials, and the price of calcium carbide has rebounded sharply in the near future.

At present, due to the rising price of cost end, the profit of PVC by calcium carbide method and ethylene method has been compressed, and the supporting effect of cost end on PVC has begun to appear. Before February, the market capacity tension and weather factors are difficult to ease, and the strong pattern of calcium carbide price is expected to continue. However, the shortage of calcium carbide supply is only structural. At present, calcium carbide enterprises show a trend of accumulation. With the recovery of transportation capacity after the Spring Festival, this part of inventory will be put on the market, the price of calcium carbide will fall, and the supporting effect of cost on PVC will also be weakened.

Abundant market supply

As of the week of January 12, the starting load of domestic PVC production enterprises was 81.89%, down 0.98% month on month, up 0.72% year on year. Among them, the starting load of PVC production enterprises with calcium carbide method is 82.45%, down 1.09% on a month on month basis; the starting load of PVC production enterprises with ethylene method is 79.27%, up 1.69% on a month on month basis. At present, there are only a few devices in China that have been shut down for a long time due to faults, and only a few of them have been overhauled or their load has been reduced. Among them, the starting load of 400000 ton unit in Inner Mongolia Sanlian is 50%, that of 300000 ton ethylene process unit in Salt Lake magnesium industry is temporarily stopped, that of 500000 ton calcium carbide process unit is 50%, that of 120000 ton unit in Qingsong Jianhua is 70%, and that of 80000 ton unit in Chengdu Huarong is overhauled to the beginning of February. The overall starting load of domestic PVC production enterprises is on the high side, and the market supply is relatively abundant. After the Spring Festival, with the reduction of environmental protection pressure, some limited devices will resume production and increase load, and the market supply will further increase.

Weak market demand

In terms of demand, near the end of the year, downstream pipe and profile enterprises shut down in a large area. In addition, it is the low consumption season in the downstream. Downstream enterprises are pessimistic about PVC market, so the market stock strength is limited. Downstream enterprises are more focused on purchasing just needed or digesting their own inventory. Not only that, due to the limit of collection before, some downstream enterprises suspended accepting orders, and consumption further weakened.

In terms of inventory, although the inventory of PVC has increased recently, it has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, which shows that the inventory removal of PVC in the middle of last year is relatively strong, which objectively supports the price of PVC. However, if the supply and demand of PVC is still in the current situation after the Spring Festival, then the inventory or enter the accumulation cycle, which will suppress the price of PVC.

To sum up, PVC prices rebounded to an important pressure level supported by rising costs and low inventories. But we think that the price rise of calcium carbide is caused by poor transportation. With the recovery of transportation capacity after the Spring Festival, the cost support for PVC will be weakened. At the same time, at present, the starting load of PVC enterprises is on the high level, while the downstream consumption performance is relatively weak. In this case, the overall market supply exceeds demand pattern will be formed, and PVC inventory will gradually rise. Based on the above judgment, we believe that the probability of PVC price falling in the later period is relatively large, and we can rely on the rebound high of 6645 yuan / ton for short test, and the first target is near the 60 day average.

As the Lunar New Year approaches, overall demand in the Asian plasticizer market is likely to slow. There are three reasons:

1. Buyers remain cautious

2. Cost pressure on manufacturers remains

3. The seller hopes for the demand after the festival

On the other hand, due to the recent rising trend of raw material prices, with the rising cost, it is unlikely that manufacturers will make the goods cheaper at this juncture.

The price of upstream propylene and 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) is stronger, because some producers reduce production, while others seriously consider reducing operating rate, leading to tight supply.

Most parts of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia are celebrating the lunar new year. January 25 is the lunar new year. From January 24, China will have a full week off.

Buyers of plasticizers can take advantage of the long holiday as an opportunity to further study the market. The purchase is still cautious, the demand has not increased significantly, and the downstream demand after the festival is uncertain.

After the festival, some buyers may find that their inventory is low, and some manufacturers may hold more goods, because the Northeast Asia plant has no planned outage.

Investors have turned to look at the price trend of previous years to find some clues about the market trend.

For dioctyl phthalate (DOP), spot prices in East Asia after the lunar new year have been rising since 2017, although the increase in 2019 is relatively small.

According to ICIS data, on January 9, 2020, the average spot price of DOP was assessed as $940 / T CFR East Asia, up $5 / T from the previous week.