I. price trend 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA66 in China continued to be weak and stable in November, while the low price was temporarily stable. As of November 31, the average offer price of PA66 is about 23100.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

Analysis of influencing factors:

 

EDTA 2Na

In the upstream of PA66 this month, adipic acid continued the weak market in October and has been in the downward channel for three consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 7.13% from September to November. At present, loose supply, weak demand and loss of cost support are the three main reasons for dragging the market. In November, the downstream demand for adipic acid became weaker; in addition, the steady increase of supply led to the increase of social inventory pressure, and the long-term inventory removal of enterprises was not significant, so the price fell again and again. In terms of region: the markets in East China and South China have declined, but the decline has narrowed compared with that in October. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, dealers are mainly active in shipping, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits. In addition, the upstream cost side lost the key support. Although pure benzene ended the slump in September October, the rebound effect is not ideal at present. The MDI of related products is also not optimistic, and the price remains weak, which is an important reason for the loss of support in the cost side of adipic acid and the price slump. It is estimated that adipic acid will not get out of the haze in a short time before this year; at the beginning of this month, the spot supply of PA66 market is still abundant, the terminal market is still just in need of goods, and the downstream factories have less inquiries, so the purchase is light. The weak mentality of the industry has not changed, and most orders are flexible. In November, the overall domestic market of PA66 still showed weak and stable adjustment.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market in November was weak and stable. The upstream adipic acid continued to weaken, but the decline narrowed, which had limited support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market buying is light, the industry is still bearish, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 will continue to operate weakly and stably in the near future.

EDTA

I. price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, acetic anhydride market fell sharply in November. As of November 30, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4750.00 yuan / ton, down 625.00 yuan / ton, or 11.63% compared with 5375.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 31.82% compared with the same period last year.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

II. Market analysis:

 

Product analysis:

 

It can be seen from the figure that the price of acetic anhydride fell for three consecutive months. In November, the market of acetic anhydride was weak and obvious. The demand for acetic anhydride was limited. In terms of supply, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers was maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride was stable, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. Customers purchased on demand. The overall market of acetic anhydride was bearish, and the downward pressure on the market of acetic anhydride remained, and the upward momentum was insufficient. As of the end of November, the actual transaction price of acetic anhydride fell to about 4500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the market of acetic anhydride was negative.

 

Industry chain factor analysis:

 

Sodium Molybdate

It can be seen from the figure that in November, the price of acetic acid and methanol both fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the pressure of acetic anhydride falling increased. In terms of demand, the demand for acetic anhydride is general, and customers purchase on demand. And with the state’s control and transportation restrictions on acetic anhydride and other precursor products, the customer’s inventory and stock are limited, and the overall demand for acetic anhydride is weakened.

 

3. Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data in the business association, acetic anhydride raw materials, acetic acid and methanol, fell in November, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride was negative; for downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was general, while downstream customers purchased on demand, and the demand for acetic anhydride was limited. On the whole, acetic anhydride fell under great pressure, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate slightly in the future.

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I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in November, the supply of zinc exceeded the demand, the market of zinc was depressed, and the price of zinc fell in shock. As of November 30, the spot price of zinc was 18466.67 yuan / ton, down 3.70% from 19176.67 yuan / ton on November 1, down 11.95% from the same period last year.

 

II. Market trend analysis

 

Potassium monopersulfate

China manufacturing PMI up

According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, in November 2019, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month. After being below the critical point for six consecutive months, it returned to the expansion range again. The PMI of manufacturing industry in November reflects the changes of China’s economic environment in the near future: both sides of supply and demand have improved, import and export have improved, the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has generally picked up, and the transformation and upgrading have been accelerated. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, believes that the downward pressure of manufacturing industry still exists due to external uncertainties and other factors. According to the price index reflecting the market changes, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials are 49.0% and 47.3%, down 1.4% and 0.7% respectively from the previous month, both falling for two consecutive months. Some enterprises reported that the transformation and upgrading have achieved certain results and the business environment has improved, but the problem of capital shortage is still prominent. According to the survey results, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the shortage of funds was 38.2%, higher than 1.5 percentage points last month. From the change of macro-economic environment, we can see the embarrassing situation of zinc market at this stage. The supply and demand environment picked up in November, which was good for zinc city. However, due to the shortage of enterprise funds and the transmission of capital pressure to the upstream, the rising power of zinc city was limited, and the zinc price fell.

 

The growth rate of commercial housing sales turns positive for the first time in the year

 

According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October, the sales area of commercial housing was 1332.51 million square meters, with the growth rate turning from negative to positive for the first time since this year, up 0.1% year on year. The sales area of commercial housing increased slightly, but there is still a certain gap compared with the market expectation of the golden nine silver ten. The demand for zinc ingots in the real estate market has a rising trend, but compared with the supply growth of zinc ingots, the zinc market is still oversupplied In demand, the impact of the real estate market on the domestic zinc market is negative.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Galvanized steel plate rose in shock

 

It can be seen from the table that the zinc plate market rose slightly in November, and the demand for zinc ingots rose, which is good for zinc market. Zinc market has a certain upward momentum, but due to the small increase of zinc plate and insufficient support for zinc ingot, the upward momentum of zinc market is limited.

 

III. future prospects

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, from the perspective of macro-economic environment, the domestic economic environment picked up in November, and the demand of zinc market rose; although the real estate market did not expect the gold nine silver ten market to appear, the overall performance was stable, and the demand for zinc ingots was strong; the rise of zinc plate market was good for the demand for zinc ingots, but it was not enough to change the supply-demand balance of zinc market; the pressure of enterprise operation funds One of the main reasons to reduce the price drop of zinc ingot is to force the enterprise to reduce the purchase cost and transfer the capital pressure to the upstream. The output of zinc ingot keeps rising in 19 years, the stock of zinc market is surplus, and the oversupply of zinc market provides the supply and demand environment for the enterprise to reduce the purchase price of zinc ingot. The high cost of zinc concentrate processing determines the lower limit of zinc price, and the space for zinc price to fall is limited. To sum up, zinc market demand is good in the near future, but it is hard to resist the negative pressure of zinc market. It is expected that zinc price will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

I. trend analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt fell sharply this week. Although Glencore stopped production in advance, it was still difficult to change the weak trend of the cobalt market, and the price of cobalt fell in shock. As of November 30, the price of cobalt was 260833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.49% compared with the average price of 267500.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week (November 22), and down 29.55% compared with the same period last year.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Glencore closed mutanda copper and cobalt mine in advance

 

EDTA 2Na

Due to the insufficient supply of sulfuric acid, mutanda copper cobalt mine entered the maintenance period ahead of schedule on November 26. So far, the event of price protection for nearly 4 months has been officially realized. The shutdown of Glencore copper and cobalt mine has certain impact on the supply of cobalt. The supply of cobalt in the future market is expected to decline, which is good for the price of cobalt. Glencore still has inventory sales, there will be no shortage of cobalt supply, and the upward momentum of cobalt market is limited.

 

New energy vehicle sales decline

 

According to the new energy vehicle production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 95000 and 75000 respectively, down 35.4% and 45.6% compared with the same period of last year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 983000 and 947000 respectively, an increase of 11.7% and 10.1% over the same period of last year. At present, the new energy market is still in the adjustment period after the recession. With the impact of the low price of second-hand new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles not only fell sharply compared with last year’s sales volume, but also fell in October compared with September’s sales volume. The recent downturn performance of new energy vehicles has a huge impact on the cobalt market. The recent demand decline of the cobalt market has a negative impact on the cobalt market.

 

Domestic mobile phone shipments fell month on month

 

EDTA

According to the data of China Academy of communications, in October 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 35.969 million, down 6.7% year on year and 0.7% month on month; in January October 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 323 million, down 5.8% year on year. The sharp decline of mobile phone sales shows the weak demand of cobalt Market in the near future. Under the condition that the supply of cobalt market remains unchanged, the downward pressure of cobalt market is greater.

 

III. future prospects

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, Glencore closed the cobalt mine ahead of time, which objectively affected the supply of cobalt Market in the future. The supply of cobalt market is expected to decrease. However, as Glencore still has cobalt stock sales, it is difficult to determine the amount of cobalt market supply reduction. The sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones continued to be depressed, and the demand for cobalt fell significantly. The oversupply of supply and demand in the cobalt market will not be improved in the short term due to the shutdown of Glencore. With the annual close, cobalt traders sold cobalt stocks at a low price in order to relieve the capital pressure, which is also the reason why the price of cobalt continued to decline in the near future. Glencore’s production reduction did not bring enough confidence to the cobalt market, and the downstream enterprises of cobalt did not have enough pressure to prepare goods in advance. Generally speaking, the shutdown of Glencore has not fundamentally changed the weak market of cobalt market, and the driving force for the rise of cobalt price is limited. However, with the continuous impact of the decrease of Glencore’s Cobalt supply and the recovery of new energy vehicles and 3C market, the price of cobalt is bound to rise, and the space for the fall of cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the price of cobalt in the future will be stable, and the price of cobalt in December may be slightly warmer

Melamine

At the market analysis forum of this year’s phosphorus and compound fertilizer production and marketing meeting, Andrea Valentini, the fertilizer market commentator of Argus, made a report on the review and outlook of the global fertilizer and raw material market, and analyzed and predicted the global fertilizer market and the medium and short-term market situation. At the same time, Wang Bei, deputy general manager of Zhongnong Group Holding Co., Ltd., made an in-depth analysis and prediction on the global import and export of potash fertilizer and the domestic market trend of winter storage under the title of “looking at the world through potash fertilizer”. A kind of

 

short term supply surplus of nitrogen fertilizer

 

new production is worthy of attention

 

According to Andrea Valentini’s analysis, at this stage, the global nitrogen fertilizer is in the stage of high production capacity, and the market will continue to maintain the situation of oversupply before 2023. Then, the nitrogen fertilizer market and trade market will change because the new production cannot keep up with the growth of demand. Chinese style

 

From the perspective of new production, investment capacity in Europe and America is limited, and new production areas are mainly concentrated in Nigeria, India, Russia, Iran and Egypt. Among them, there are two changes worthy of attention: first, Nigeria (natural gas cost $1.5-2 / mmbtu), Russia (natural gas cost $0.5-3.5 / mmbtu) and other regions, as a result of the low cost of natural gas and investment and construction, promote the continuous increase of new production; second, India’s annual urea demand is about 30 million tons, of which more than 10 million tons need to be imported, but In recent years, through continuous investment and construction of LNG urea production plant, India’s urea import has been rapidly reduced from 10 million tons / year to 6 million tons / year. According to Andrea Valentini, with the barauni hurl gas supply improvement project listed in the determined capacity, India will add four new urea production units by 2022, with the expected capacity growth rate of more than 5 million tons / year, and its external dependence on urea demand will drop significantly, which will deeply affect the traditional international trade pattern of urea. Chinese style

 

Benzalkonium chloride

On the part of China, the sharp decline in exports from 2016 to 2017 led to a decrease in the net surplus in the international market, which led to a tight supply trend in the international urea market in 2018, which should be postponed to 2019. However, due to the impact of the devaluation of the RMB and the decline of energy prices, the export volume of China’s urea this year tends to be significantly surplus. With the slowing down of the shutdown of excess capacity and the increasing supply of natural gas, China’s urea export volume is expected to rise from the original 4-5 million tons next year. But overall, China’s urea production capacity will continue to decline. A kind of

 

in view of the international urea market trend in the next five years, Andrea Valentini analysis said that it is expected that in 2020-2021, 5 million tons of new export-oriented production will exceed the growth of market demand, and the market may tend to be weak. From 2023 to 2024, the new production increase can be slowed down significantly, or the situation of supply shortage will appear again. It should be noted that the early production of some projects will fill the demand gap and become an unpredictable trade risk point. A kind of

 

Phosphorus fertilizer tends to be regional

 

Production can reduce year-round

 

In recent years, the trend of regional phosphate fertilizer market is very obvious. For example, the North-South American market represented by OCP, and the Asian market to the east of Suez Canal represented by ma’aden. Andrea Valentini pointed out that unlike the saturation of market demand in other regions, the emerging market in Brazil still has considerable room to increase the demand for phosphate fertilizer, thus attracting the high attention of OCP, ma’aden, mosaic and phosphate fertilizer enterprises from China. Chinese style

 

For the international phosphate fertilizer market in 2019, the merger of kaip and Wengfu is undoubtedly an event with far-reaching impact. In response, Andrea Valentini said that in the past period, high cost, environmental pressure, zero growth policy of chemical fertilizer, increasingly strict issuance of mining license, fierce export competition and other factors severely restricted the development of Chinese phosphate fertilizer enterprises, which also contributed to the integration of Chinese phosphate fertilizer industry. Some enterprises without resources and environmental protection standards are gradually squeezed out of the market, and large-scale horizontal reorganization and integration among large enterprises may continue to cause the annual decline of China’s phosphate fertilizer production capacity. A kind of

 

from the perspective of export, in the first quarter of this year, domestic demand for diammonium was not strong, and suppliers paid close attention to Indian diammonium bidding. In the first half of the year, 1.3 million tons of diammonium were shipped from China to India, an increase of 34%. In the second half of the year, the international market declined as a whole, and China’s export of diammonium was blocked, especially the export price fell sharply. Chinese enterprises began to jointly limit production to stabilize the market. A kind of

 

compared with the measures taken by Chinese enterprises to jointly limit production, the international phosphate fertilizer giants, such as OCP and ma’aden, did not limit production, but sought sales through continuous operation, resulting in a continuous surplus of global phosphate fertilizer supply. With the rapid growth of raw material capacity, such as sulfur, the price of phosphate fertilizer continued to decline. Enterprises in North America are also faced with environmental protection, resource depletion, mining restrictions and other issues, mainly through horizontal integration, closure of some projects, and optimization of production capacity and product structure. Throughout the year, large suppliers will not significantly reduce production, the global phosphorus fertilizer will be perennial surplus, the situation of oversupply is difficult to ease for a while. Chinese style

In addition, Andrea Valentini also noted that IMO’s new regulations on Desulfurization of ship fuel oil will be officially implemented in 2020. According to the requirements of the new regulations, the fuel oil raw materials of cargo ships need to be changed from heavy acid oil with high sulfur content to light sweet oil with sulfur content less than 0.5% or natural gas as fuel. Cargo ships still using acid oil need to be equipped with high cost desulfurization devices. After the implementation of the new rules, it will inevitably lead to a significant increase in shipping costs, especially the impact on FOB prices. A kind of

 

potash international giant monopolizes supply

 

excess capacity may continue to increase

 

Sodium Molybdate

after the first quarter of 2019, potash market experienced a round of downward trend. At this stage, the monopoly of potash supply by international giants has not changed, and the industry concentration is still quite high. Andrea Valentini said that since 2009, the new production of international potash fertilizer has begun to exceed the growth rate of market demand, and the new production is mainly concentrated in Canada, Russia, Belarus and China. In this environment, any new production will lead to the continuous decline of potash market. He expects that, despite the closure of projects, the oversupply of potash fertilizer market will continue to grow in the future. In the short term, potash market will remain weak. Chinese style

 

According to the global import and export of potash fertilizer, Wang Bei analyzed that in 2018, the global trade volume of potash fertilizer was 53.49 million tons, of which Brazil, China, India and Southeast Asia accounted for 60% of the total import volume of potash fertilizer. Specifically, affected by weather and flood disasters, the U.S. imported 5.64 million tons of potash fertilizer from January to August 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; the trade of potash fertilizer in Southeast Asia is relatively flexible, dominated by large-scale planting bidding and spot trade, and greatly affected by palm oil market. From January to August 2019, Indonesia imported 2.12 million tons of potash fertilizer, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and Malaysia imported 830000 tons from January to July 2019 , a year-on-year decrease of 20%; Brazil’s demand for potash fertilizer continues to increase, with imports reaching 7.98 million tons from January to September 2019, a year-on-year increase of 11%; India adopts the form of annual long-term cooperation + short-term bidding and government subsidies, with imports of 2.98 million tons of potash fertilizer from January to July 2019, basically the same year-on-year. Brazil’s large farmers have strong financial strength and great demand potential. At this stage, they have become the price benchmark of the global high-end spot market of potash fertilizer. Chinese style

 

China’s annual demand for potash fertilizer is 15-16 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 55%. Influenced by the decline of agricultural product quotation, the increase of environmental protection supervision and the continuous decline of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer product quotation, it is expected that the domestic demand for potash fertilizer will decline, and potash fertilizer price will remain weak. In view of the unilateral downward trend of potash fertilizer price in this year, few shocks, and large-scale losses of domestic import businesses, Wang Bei analyzed that the main factors of Zui are the rapid growth of supply and high inventory. According to data statistics, from January to September 2019, China imported 7.653 million tons of potash fertilizer, an increase of 2.09 million tons over the same period last year. It is expected to import 8-8.3 million tons in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 550000-850000 tons. From January to August 2019, the domestic potash fertilizer was converted into 4.689 million tons of pure (K2O), and the expected physical quantity was 7.5-8 million tons, which was the high growth rate of Zui among all kinds of fertilizer. In addition, the stock increase of domestic potash fertilizer this year also reached about 1.5-1.7 million tons. With the increase of supply and the high stock, the price of potash fertilizer has been affected to some extent. In comparison, the international prices of nitrogen and phosphorus have declined in this year, with a drop of more than $100 per ton for Zui high and a relatively small drop of $30-50 per ton for potash.

 

Wang Bei said that from the perspective of potash fertilizer, we should focus on the following aspects: first, macro-economic situation. At this stage, economic growth slows down, Sino US trade war and RMB exchange rate adjustment lead to the increase of trade costs, and we should pay attention to the new international production and changes in major markets such as Brazil, India, the United States and Southeast Asia; second, port inventory, Special attention should be paid to the difference between bonded goods and imported stock, and the structure of its stock products. For example, the stock of potash fertilizer in Northeast China this year is 400000 tons, of which only 240000 tons are large grains. The demand gap is large. In addition, the stock proportion of red powder and white crystal is also low. Third, the arrival situation. It is expected that after October, the supply of tradable potash will not increase any more, and the imported potash fertilizer will enter the stage of one-way storage. In the short term Fourth, the negotiation on import of potassium is not smooth this year, and no long-term agreement has been signed. It is expected that the negotiation will be reopened before and after the Spring Festival in 2020, so we should pay attention to the timing and price of land and sea transportation import.

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