After a short rebound from mid October to November, international crude oil prices fell again in early December. The main reason is that the market generally expects that the international crude oil market will still be oversupplied in 2020, especially the global crude oil production will maintain rapid growth, while the demand will continue to be weak.

 

An important recent event is the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) in Vienna from December 5 to 6 to discuss whether to extend the production reduction agreement and whether to expand the production reduction. In fact, the key issue of OPEC meeting is not whether OPEC will reduce production or not, but the extent and implementation path of production reduction. If the intensity of production reduction is expanded, the pressure of excess supply in the crude oil market will be relieved to some extent; if the agreement of production reduction is not extended or even if the existing agreement of production reduction is extended, the crude oil market still faces the pressure of excess supply.

 

From the supply side, on July 1, 2019, OPEC + agreed to extend the production reduction to March 2020, which made the global crude oil market appear a certain amount of inventory removal, but the supply is still surplus. However, the international crude oil market still benefits from OPEC + production reduction to some extent, which makes the decline of WTI crude oil price basically stop at $50 / barrel, not approaching the $45 / barrel set in December 2018 again.

 

Shale oil is still the key to the global oil supply in 2020, and the market generally expects that the shale oil production in the United States will increase in 2020. According to the data, shale oil production in the United States has exceeded 9 million barrels / day, while the overall crude oil production in the United States is about 12.9 million barrels / day. Although the number of shale oil rigs in the United States has declined significantly since 2014, the production of shale oil in the United States has not declined significantly. Shale oil producers in the United States try to continue to increase production with fewer drilling platforms. The main logic lies in the improvement of drilling efficiency and the explosion of oil storage wells in the Central Plains during the drilling process. At present, more than 70% of the crude oil resources in the United States are from shale oil, and the marginal cost is estimated to be about $50 / barrel. Therefore, if the WTI crude oil price is more than $50 / barrel, the shale oil production in the United States is unlikely to decline actively.

 

EDTA

In addition, the output of emerging crude oil producers is likely to grow explosively, with increases coming from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana. It is estimated that by 2020, the above four countries will increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day, and by 2021, they will increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day. Such an imminent supply explosion could be an important reason for Saudi Arabia’s oil giant, Aramco, to rush ahead with its IPO plans. By country, in May 2019, Exxon Mobil announced that it would approve its huge Guyana development project with a second phase investment of US $6 billion. With the approval of Liza phase 2 project (the first phase will go online in early 2020), Exxon Mobil expects to produce more than 750000 barrels of oil per day in Guyana by 2025, which is almost equivalent to the total global oil and gas production of Exxon Mobil 20%; in September 2019, Norwegian national oil company equinor announced two offshore oil fields in the North Sea to produce and sell oil, among which the mariner oil field in the UK sea area has been started in the middle of August this year, and as the largest oil field discovered in the North Sea in nearly 30 years, the Sverdrup oil field in the Norwegian Sea area was put into production in October this year; on November 6, 2019, Brazil launched the so-called The world’s largest offshore oil and gas development project, which covers four platforms, is expected to have reserves of 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

 

Most importantly, it may be difficult for OPEC + meeting in Vienna on December 6 to have a more than expected production reduction agreement. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, is not only hit by weak demand, but also facing the rise of the US, which has transformed its customers into competitors. Russia, an OPEC ally, has been producing more than the OPEC + target since August. Russia’s crude oil and condensate production in November once again exceeded the target set by the OPEC + agreement, totaling 46 million tons, equivalent to about 11.24 million barrels per day.

 

Many oil producing countries, such as Russia and Iraq, have not strictly complied with the production reduction agreement and have been producing beyond the quota. Most of the time, Saudi Arabia cut production beyond the quota, making greater sacrifices to maintain the reduction agreement. There has been a conflict of interest between the two groups. In recent days, Saudi Arabia seems to be reluctant to over implement the production reduction, and may urge countries to strictly implement the production reduction agreement. However, Russia is still trying to reduce the restriction of the agreement on production reduction on its crude oil production, hoping to exclude the condensate production from the production reduction index, and emphasizing that it is difficult for Russia to complete the production reduction in winter.

 

Melamine

Global crude oil demand is relatively weak. Data shows that from June to August, the demand of the world’s 18 largest crude oil consumers increased by only 1.6% compared with the same period last year. In addition to China, the demand of the other top 17 countries fell by 0.9% in June August compared with the same period last year, which is better than a few months ago, but still weak.

 

Looking back at the impact of OPEC + production reduction on the crude oil market since 2016, we find that the marginal utility is getting lower and lower. Even if the OPEC + meeting in Vienna prolongs the time of production reduction, but the intensity of production reduction is not increased, the crude oil price will be limited to be boosted, which is likely to maintain a low level operation.

In order to predict the probability of OPEC + Vienna production reduction and the intensity of production reduction, the CME OPEC watch tool newly launched by Zhishang Institute shows that the probability of maintaining the current production reduction is 73.21%, while the probability of expanding the production reduction is only 15.26%. CME OPEC watch tool uses WTI crude oil option market price data to calculate the implied probability of OPEC event results. The three results are summarized as “increase output”, “maintain output reduction” and “further reduce output”. Then, the tool assigns a probability to each result calculated using the latest weekly and monthly option expiration.

EDTA 2Na

Speed up capacity expansion

 

Limited growth of domestic demand and new capacity targeted at overseas market

 

Iran is located near the Persian Gulf in the Middle East, with rich oil and gas resources. Its proven crude oil reserves and natural gas reserves are 158 billion barrels and 1201 trillion cubic feet, respectively, ranking fourth and second in the world. Relying on the superior natural resources, Iran’s petrochemical industry is booming. The export of petrochemical products accounts for about one third of Iran’s trade exports, and has become one of its domestic pillar industries. It is precisely because of such oil and gas resources, Iran has a lot of gas head urea plant capacity.

 

According to Bloomberg data, from 2009 to 2015, Iran’s urea production capacity has been maintained at more than 4.5 million tons, during which there is no new capacity, mainly because of the slow investment in fixed assets in the post financial crisis era, which makes its urea production capacity unchanged. However, since 2016, nearly 8 million tons of urea production units have been put into operation in Iran, which has increased the domestic urea production capacity by 1.6 times to 12 million tons in 2016, which is in line with the period of large-scale production of olefin and methanol units in Iran in the same period, as well as the period of large-scale production of petrochemical units in other regions of the world, such as China and North America.

 

The relatively famous urea enterprises in Iran include Pardis Petrochemical Company, Shiraz Petrochemical Company, Raz ipechemical company, marvdasht Petrochemical Company and Khorasan petrochemical company. Among them, the urea production capacity owned by Pardis petrochemical company occupies the first place in Iran, with a capacity of more than 3 million tons. However, from the perspective of capacity utilization, in 2016, 2017 and 2018 after Iran’s urea production capacity was put into operation, the capacity utilization rate was relatively low, accounting for 33.2%, 40.5% and 54.9% respectively, which was quite different from the capacity utilization rate of more than 90% in 2013-2015. This is mainly because Iran is located in the Persian plateau and in the desert area, so the area of arable crops is relatively small, and the growth rate of domestic urea demand is limited.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

From the data point of view, the growth rate of domestic urea demand in Iran improved from 2015 to 2018, but the average growth rate of domestic urea demand in Iran from 2013 to 2018 was – 10.75%, which is difficult to digest more than 12 million tons of urea production capacity. As mentioned above, Iran is an important exporter of petrochemical products in the world. It is not hard to see that only exports of urea in Iran can digest the supply increase brought by new production capacity. According to Argus information, Iran still has more than 10 million tons of new production capacity increase targeting overseas export market in the future, including 1075000 tons of lordegan area fertilizer rcompany (originally planned to be put into production in 2019, now it may be In addition, three Zanjan industries Petrochemical Company, Hengam Petrochemical Company, masjed soleyman petrochemical company have plans to put into operation 1075000 tons of production capacity and Kermanshah company’s 6.6 million tons of production capacity respectively.

 

Less imports, mainly from India

 

As mentioned above, the high urea production capacity of Iran that does not match domestic demand can only be digested by exports, which is also true from the data. From the perspective of import data, Iran’s urea imports from 2013 to 2018 are relatively small, totaling less than 10000 tons. Of course, this part of the imports may be high-end urea. From the perspective of export data, Iran’s urea exports from 2013 to 2018 were 2.195 million tons, 1.29 million tons, 2.25 million tons, 1.88 million tons, 2.74 million tons and 4.2 million tons, far higher than the imports and even higher than domestic urea in Iran Demand, meanwhile, the overall export dependence rose to 52.2% in 2018 on a month on month basis. Therefore, we believe that Iran is a typical urea export-oriented country, and the current and future urea production capacity is only exported to overseas countries for digestion.

 

According to Argus, at present, the destination of Iran’s Urea Export is divided into four areas: first, India, which accounts for more than 50% of all exports in the past five years, is the main overseas destination of Iran’s urea supply; second, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Myanmar and other countries around Iran constitute the core area, which accounts for 20% – 30% of exports in the past five years; third, Germany, Belgium South Korea, Poland, South Africa and other countries constitute a non core area, with the export volume accounting for 10% – 20% in the past five years; fourth, the export volume of transit trade market with China as the transit station has gradually increased to about 20% in 2018, among which the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and re increased the sanctions against Iran in 2018, and Iran urea can only be exported to China through transit and then exported to India through operation Market. The main reason for this situation is that the Indian government refuses to accept the Iranian urea supply in the domestic urea bidding procurement considering the relationship with the United States. However, it is reported that the total amount of Iranian urea re exported to China decreased by about 25% in 2019.

 

China’s high urea cost, Iran’s export channel blocked

 

Sodium Molybdate

As Iran is an important urea export-oriented country, China is also an important part of the global urea export market. From 2014 to 2015, China’s urea exports exceeded 13 million tons and 14 million tons respectively, far exceeding Iran’s urea exports in the same period. This is mainly due to the serious oversupply of urea in China, which made upstream enterprises have to take the initiative to reduce the inventory pressure and export to the warehouse. Then in 2016-2018, China’s domestic urea industry experienced supply side reform, most of the urea plants with backward technology and great damage to environmental protection were eliminated, and the domestic urea price in China rose as a whole, which also made the export competitiveness of China’s urea price sharply reduced, among which the export volume of China’s urea in 2018 was less than 2.5 million tons, far lower than the export volume of more than 10 million tons.

On the contrary, Iran’s urea exports are in a fast growth period. From 2017 to 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of Iran’s urea reached 40% – 50%, and in 2018, Iran’s urea exports exceeded 4 million tons, higher than China’s urea exports in the same period. In terms of Urea Export, we believe that Iran urea and China urea are in a competitive relationship, especially in terms of exports to India. However, both countries are faced with their own problems in terms of exports, that is, China urea is not competitive in the international market due to its high cost, while Iran urea is blocked in export channels due to economic sanctions imposed by the United States.

 

Summary

 

Iran is rich in oil and gas resources and cheap, which provides a large cost dividend for many new urea plants in Iran. At present, Iran’s capacity has exceeded 12 million tons, and there may be a new capacity plan of nearly 10 million tons in the future. With such a large urea production capacity, Iran’s domestic demand cannot be digested, so it can only be digested by exporting to overseas markets. However, since 2018, the United States has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear agreement and continued to increase economic sanctions against Iran, which makes the domestic urea export of Iran difficult. Considering that Iran is a battleground for strategic interests of global powers, we believe that the issue of Iran’s Urea Export is full of uncertainty, which is a marginal variable factor that cannot be ignored in the global urea trade market and needs to be focused on.

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I. price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam on December 3 was 11066 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam on December 4 was 10666 yuan / ton, with a single day price drop of 3.61%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on December 4 is 53.65, down 2.01 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.35% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

 

II. Market analysis

 

Potassium monopersulfate

Product: domestic caprolactam continued to decline due to poor demand. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10100 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11300 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shanxi yangcoal is 10600 yuan / ton. The 200000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 11100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11200 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

 

Industrial chain: the pure benzene Market in East China remains firm, and the negotiation in the import market goes up. The domestic trade negotiation is referred to 5400-5450 yuan / ton, and the negotiation in the far month is 5200-5350 yuan / ton. There is more wait-and-see in the field, but the increase in the external market does not produce an effective boost, and the weak support in the downstream is insufficient. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7200-7400 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The South China cyclohexanone market has been reorganized and operated. The negotiation is based on 7800-7900 yuan / ton delivery. The main trading intention is at the low end or below. The low price of the enterprise has a great restriction on the market rebound, and the supply side is general. The market of cyclohexanone in East China was reorganized and operated, and 7700-7800 yuan / ton was referred for on-site negotiation. The domestic PA6 market weakened and the spot price fell. Caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

 

III. future forecast

 

Caprolactam analysts believe that the price of upstream raw material pure benzene remains high and the cost support is limited. The downstream demand is not good, and the industry is cautious to wait and see. The supply will increase with the restart of some enterprises in the early stage of equipment maintenance. It is expected that the weak finishing of caprolactam market will be the main trend in the later period.

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, as of December 4, the market of propylene oxide rose, with an average price of 10366.67 yuan / ton, up 0.97% compared with that of December 3, and the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China was 10300-10500 yuan / ton on December 4.

 

Melamine

II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: epoxy propane market rose on the 4th. The market supply is tight, and there is no pressure on the manufacturers to ship. The raw material inventory in the downstream polyether market is low, and the price of propylene oxide manufacturers is mainly increased. On April 4, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 10200 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market was 10500 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 10300 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10200 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 10100 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

 

Industry chain: the upstream propylene market fell on April 4, down 1.19%. On April 4, the actual order in the downstream polyether yard was limited.

 

EDTA 2Na

3. Future forecast:

 

According to the propylene oxide analysts of the business club, the market supply is reduced and the downstream raw material inventory is low, which drives the price of propylene oxide up. The price of propylene in the upstream raw material will go down, and the actual order in the downstream polyether yard will be limited, which will affect the price of propylene oxide to a certain extent. In the short term, the market of propylene oxide is expected to rise steadily.

EDTA

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 4th was 337.68 yuan / g, up 1.63% compared with 332.25 yuan / G on the 3rd, and up 18.86% compared with 284.10 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

The spot price of silver in China on April 4 was 4157.67 yuan / kg, up 1.71% compared with 4087.67 yuan / kg on March 3, and up 14.93% compared with 3617.67 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Main influencing factors

 

1. On December 2, local time, after the closing of the US stock market, the office of the US trade representative issued a statement that it plans to impose a maximum 100% tariff on French imports worth US $2.4 billion, aiming to force France to reach a new agreement on the imposition of a digital service tax, so as to avoid the disadvantage of US companies. The threat also said that in the future, the United States may impose such import tariffs on Austria, Italy and Turkey, because all three countries also adopt digital service taxes.

 

2. President trump of the United States wrote on social media on December 2: “Brazil and Argentina have been leading the devaluation of their currencies. This is not good for our farmers. As a result, I will restore tariffs on all steel and aluminum products imported into the United States from these countries, with immediate effect. ” The U.S. government used a national security law called “Article 232″ to impose tariffs.

Sodium Molybdate

 

3. On December 3 local time, the intelligence committee of the US House of Representatives voted to pass the investigation report on impeachment of US President trump.

 

4. On December 3, local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the “Uyghur human rights policy bill 2019″, which maliciously attacked the human rights situation in Xinjiang, China, distorted and blacked China’s efforts to go to extremes and fight terrorism, unjustifiably accused the Chinese government of its territorial policy and roughly interfered in China’s internal affairs.

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On December 3, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.31, unchanged from yesterday, 48.96% lower than 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 26.62% higher than 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is stable, the downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increases, the high-end transaction is blocked, the factory inventory is normal in the near future, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6200-6600 yuan / ton and 5800-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 6100-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field maintain low prices, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is mainly on demand, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is sufficient, and the downstream procurement is on demand Purchase, phthalic anhydride prices remain volatile.

In the near future, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. The import phthalic acid Market in the port area is stable and the quotation is temporarily stable. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is temporarily stable and the port inventory is still at a low level. The external quotation of phthalic acid is volatile and stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The actual order is discussed in detail. Affected by the low price of upstream raw material phthalic acid, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable. The downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price trend is temporarily stable, the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and falling, the cost of DOP raw material is falling, the DOP price is fluctuating and stable, the downstream DOP is fluctuating and recovering, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is stable, and the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising. The main quotation of DOP market is about 7300-7550 yuan / ton. The downstream price trend is temporarily stable. In addition, the upstream ox price is stable. Affected by the low price of downstream products, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

I. price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 3, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5480 yuan / ton, with the price rising 1.11% month on month and 0.86% year on year. The domestic ethanol market is relatively strong, and the market in some areas is strong.

 

EDTA 2Na

II. Market analysis

 

Product: the domestic ethanol market is relatively strong. The ethanol market in Northeast China is in a strong operation, with large factories mostly executing contracts and liquor companies mainly pricing; the ethanol market in East China is rising steadily, with some liquor companies increasing their offers and better moving goods; the ethanol market in Shandong Province is in a stable operation, with stable supply prices in Northeast China, few on-site inventory and large factories mostly executing contracts; the ethanol market in Northern Jiangsu Province is rising sharply, with few on-site stocks and liquor companies making offers Pull up; cassava alcohol market in southern Jiangsu is on the rise, with low inventory and terminal receiving on demand; ethanol market in Henan is on the rise, with active terminal stock, with individual liquor companies reporting upward; ethanol market in South China is on a high swing, with Jinyuan planning to start up and liquor companies reporting temporarily stable.

 

Industry chain: corn: it is understood that the warehouses directly under the central grain reserve in many regions of Northeast China were successively opened in early December to acquire new corn of 2019. Among them, the central grain reserve Yushu directly under the warehouse opened for purchase on December 3, with the water content above 14% of the second-class (including) national standard of 1675 yuan / ton; the central grain reserve Harbin directly under the warehouse opened for purchase on December 2, with the storage price of 14% of the third-class and above water content of 1680 yuan / ton; the Ulanhot Tiexi National Grain Reserve opened for purchase on December 2, with the purchase price of 14% of the second-class water content of 1660 yuan / ton and the third-class water content of 1640 yuan / ton. The country of origin reserves have successively opened warehouses for purchase, which will play a positive role in stabilizing grain prices and ensuring the planting income in the period of centralized grain sales years ago.

EDTA

 

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is optimistic. In the early stage, the main manufacturers stopped their equipment to ease the situation of oversupply in the market, and in the later stage, the main manufacturers digested the inventory of the cargo, and supported part of the increase under the support of the demand side. However, the domestic downstream substantial demand is weak, the decline of raw acetic acid is obvious, and the ethyl acetate Market is not supported well, which is expected to be stable after the rise. The supply of raw ethanol is in short supply in the near future, and we will wait and see if there is any impact of production reduction in some manufacturers.

 

III. future forecast

 

Business alcohol analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market may be at a high level, and in the long term, it may be weak as supply increases.

Melamine

EU is the largest production and marketing area

 

Global production slows down and the EU remains the main production and marketing region

 

Biofuels can be divided into two categories: the first category refers to biofuels based on food crops or vegetable oil, including biodiesel produced by vegetable oil and bioethanol produced by corn and sugarcane; the second category is mainly non food crops, namely biodiesel produced by animal oil and waste edible oil and cellulosic ethanol produced by straw, hay, sawdust and other wastes.

 

Biodiesel is made from vegetable oil, animal oil, waste oil or microbial oil by transesterification with methanol or ethanol. B30 and B20 mentioned above refer to that in the mixed oil of petrochemical diesel and biodiesel, the proportion of biodiesel in the blend reaches 30% and 20%.

 

The growth rate of global biodiesel production has slowed down since 2009, especially since 2014. In 2017, the output is estimated to be 27 million tons, and the consumption and output changes are basically the same.

 

In terms of the global production distribution of biodiesel, the EU is close to 10 million tons, accounting for 36%; central and South America, North America, Asia and Oceania are basically the same, with a production of 5-6 million tons, accounting for about 20%.

 

From the distribution of global biodiesel consumption, EU accounts for half of the world, reaching 12 million tons, accounting for 48%; central and South America, North America, Asia and Oceania are basically the same, 4-4.5 million tons, accounting for about 18%.

 

Indonesia: under internal and external troubles, the growth of domestic demand is accelerating

 

As the main production area of palm oil, Indonesia and Malaysia use palm oil as the main raw material for biodiesel production, almost no imports, mainly exports. It is estimated that in 2019, Indonesia’s biodiesel output will be 6.5 million tons, exports 1.1 million tons, and domestic demand will be 5.4 million tons; Malaysia’s volume is relatively small, estimated output is 1.5 million tons, exports 650000 tons, and domestic demand is 850000 tons.

 

From 2013 to 2014, the Indonesian government set the mandatory blending proportion of biodiesel in diesel to 10%, increased it to 15% in 2015, and then increased it to 20% in 2016. However, due to various reasons, such as the lack of domestic blending facilities and weak policy implementation, the actual blending proportion in 2014-2017 did not meet the requirements of mandatory blending.

 

However, this situation has changed since 2018. On the one hand, the domestic palm oil production in Indonesia has increased substantially, and the pressure on raw material inventory has been increasing; on the other hand, the export environment has been deteriorating, and in 2019, the EU re imposed anti dumping duties on Indonesia’s biodiesel, and due to environmental protection issues, it is proposed to implement the ban on palm oil biodiesel, while the United States since 20 Since 17, countervailing duties have been imposed on Indonesia’s biodiesel. In the context of internal and external troubles, the Indonesian government tries to expand the domestic demand of biodiesel, strengthen the implementation of policies, and increase the actual blending rate to 20% in 2019, which is expected to reach the goal of B20 plan.

 

The Indonesian government will implement the B30 plan from January 1, 2020. It is expected that the actual mixing rate will reach 25% – 30% in 2020, which will bring about an increase in palm oil demand of 1.4-2.7 million tons. However, the export is expected to continue to decline, with a decrease in palm oil demand of about 650000 tons. As a whole, the implementation of B30 plan in Indonesia will increase the demand of 750000-2050000 tons of palm oil.

 

Malaysia: rapid growth of production, capacity or “ceiling”

 

In 2014, the Malaysian government implemented the B5 plan nationwide. In 2015, it was increased to B7 (7% biodiesel blending), and in 2019, it was increased to B10 (10% biodiesel blending).

 

Under the circumstance of high subsidy in China, the production profit of biodiesel in Malaysia is good. In recent years, the growth rate of biodiesel production has been maintained at 30%. However, at this stage, the capacity of biodiesel in Malaysia is 2 million tons. Limited by the capacity pressure, it is estimated that the capacity of biodiesel in 2020 will be 1.8 million tons, bringing about an increase in palm oil demand of 350000 tons.

 

It is reported that the Malaysian government plans to implement the B20 plan in advance at the beginning of 2020, but if the domestic production capacity cannot be expanded, it can only change the export and domestic demand structure of biodiesel, i.e. increase domestic demand and reduce export, which has little impact on the overall biodiesel production.

EU: slow growth of domestic demand and continuous trade protection

 

Benzalkonium chloride

In 2018, the EU’s biodiesel production reached 12.5 million tons and consumption was 14 million tons. Unlike Indonesia and Malaysia, in the international trade of biodiesel, the EU mainly imports. In 2018, the imports reached 3 million tons, significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the significant increase in the imports of Argentina and Indonesia. On November 26, 2013, the EU formally imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on the biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia. However, before the five-year period, Argentina won in the WTO in 2017 and Indonesia won in 2018. The cancellation of the anti-dumping duty led to a sharp increase in the EU’s biodiesel imports in 2018.

 

The raw materials of biodiesel produced in the EU are rich, mainly rapeseed oil; the second is waste edible oil, palm oil, soybean oil, etc. However, the cost of biodiesel produced from rapeseed oil is higher than that of palm oil and soybean oil. In order to protect its biodiesel industry, the EU has set up certain tariff barriers to Argentina, the United States and Indonesia for a long time.

 

In July 2009, the EU formally implemented a five-year double anti-tariff on biodiesel imported from the United States. In 2015, the period was extended to September 2020. Although Argentina and Indonesia won the case in the WTO, the EU had to continue to take measures to limit the exports of the two countries due to the large increase of exports to the EU in 2018. In December 2018, the European Commission proposed to resume the countervailing of Argentine biodiesel Tariff, the tax rate is set at 25% – 33.4%. After negotiation, in February 2019, the EU decided to exempt eight Argentine biodiesel producers, who were allowed to export biodiesel to the EU without paying tariff, as long as they were sold at the lowest price. In August 2019, the EU formally imposed an anti subsidy tax of 8% – 18% on biodiesel imported from Indonesia. The market expects that the EU will decide whether to impose a long-term anti subsidy tax on biodiesel exported from Indonesia to Europe in mid December.

 

In recent years, there have been some changes in the development of biodiesel within the EU. Due to the food and environmental protection issues involved, it is proposed to limit the consumption of biofuels based on food crops, increase the consumption of biofuels based on non food crops, and require Member States to reduce the proportion of using the first type of biofuels in the transport sector to 7% by 2020. The European Union renewable energy directive (redii) further requires that the mixing limit of the first type of biofuels based on food crops should be reduced from 7% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2030, and the mixing limit of the second type of biofuels should be increased from 1.5% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2030. It can be seen from the raw material structure of EU biodiesel over the years that the consumption of waste edible oil and animal oil is increasing year by year, while that of vegetable oil is declining to some extent, and this trend will continue in the future.

 

EU plans to ban palm oil-based biodiesel, and will gradually stop using palm oil to produce biodiesel before 2030, which will directly affect the import volume of 2.5 million tons of palm oil used to produce biodiesel. In addition, EU re imposes anti dumping tax on Indonesia biodiesel in 2019. In recent years, trade disputes between EU, Indonesia and Malaysia continue.

 

Looking forward to 2020, it is estimated that the domestic demand of EU biodiesel will remain stable with an increase of 300000 tons. In terms of import, due to the EU’s re restrictions on Indonesia and Argentina’s import, the estimated import reduction is 400000 tons.

 

The United States: rapid decline in imports and gradual increase in domestic demand

 

There are a wide range of raw materials for biodiesel production in the United States, of which soybean oil accounts for more than 60%. It is estimated that the output of biodiesel in 2019 will reach 6-6.5 million tons. In terms of import, in the past, the U.S. biodiesel import mainly came from Argentina and Indonesia. The import volume of the two countries increased rapidly from 2013 to 2017, when the U.S. Department of Commerce decided to impose countervailing tax on the import of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia, which restricted the import of biodiesel from the two countries. Thus, the import volume of biodiesel from the U.S. began to decline rapidly, from 2.3 million in 2016 Tons fell to 550000 tons in 2018.

 

The United States has a strong support for agriculture, so it has also introduced corresponding incentive policies for biodiesel. On the one hand, since 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set a minimum annual use of biodiesel, such as 800 million gallons in 2011, 2.1 billion gallons in 2018, 2.43 billion gallons in 2019, 2.43 billion gallons in 2020, and the current U.S. production capacity is 2.55 billion gallons, about 8.4 million tons; on the other hand, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set a minimum annual use of biodiesel On the one hand, biodiesel has a subsidy of US $1 / gallon and a tax credit policy.

 

In 2020, under the condition of unchanged policy, the import of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia will still be limited. It is expected that the net import of biodiesel from the United States will be the same as that in 2019, maintaining at the level of 200000 tons. In order to meet the minimum usage standard of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, the domestic demand and production will continue to increase, with an estimated increase of 500000-1 million tons. The raw material end and vegetable oil will increase The volume is 400000-800000 tons, including 250000-550000 tons of soybean oil.

Brazil: self-sufficiency, increasing production

 

Sodium Molybdate

Biodiesel produced in Brazil is mainly made of soybean oil, supplemented by butter, accounting for 70% – 80% of the total, which is in a self-sufficient market with small import and export volume. It is estimated that the output will reach 5 million tons in 2019.

 

Its biodiesel policy has been steadily promoted. In early 2008, the compulsory blending standard was set at 2%, in the second half of the year, it was increased to 3%, in 2009 to 4%, in 2010 to 5%, in 2014 to 7%, in 2016 to 8%, in 2017 to 9%, in 2018 to 10%, and in 2019 to 11%.

 

It is estimated that the output of biodiesel in Brazil will increase by about 350000 tons in 2020, bringing about an increase of 200000 tons of soybean oil and 50000 tons of butter.

 

Argentina: hard work, export dawn

 

Argentina’s biodiesel production is also dominated by soybean oil. In 2019, the output of biodiesel is estimated to be 2.2 million tons. The difference in export tax rates between raw materials and biodiesel (high raw materials, low biodiesel), makes Argentina play a major role in the international trade of biodiesel. In recent years, Argentina has been struggling against the trade barriers of the European Union and the United States, but at this stage In February 2019, the EU exempted 1.13 million tons of biodiesel imports from Argentina that met the established lowest price (soybean oil price + production cost). In 2018, Argentina exported 1.4 million tons of biodiesel to the EU. In August 2019, the United States adjusted Argentina’s countervailing duty from 72% to 10%, but the antidumping duty has not been cancelled, which is 75%. Argentina’s biodiesel export window to the United States The export volume of biodiesel in Argentina is estimated to be 1 million tons in 2019.

 

Argentina’s earliest biodiesel policy was clause 26.093 in 2006, i.e. reaching the goal of b5 in January 2010, implementing B7 plan in February 2010, and increasing to B10 in April 2016. In 2017, the actual mixing rate of Argentina has reached more than 9%. It is expected that the domestic demand will remain stable in 2020, the export will slightly decline by 100000 tons, the output will decrease by 100000 tons, and the soybean oil will be reduced by 100000 tons.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On November 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

 

Sodium selenite

In November, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market remained at a high level, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant started normal operation, the supply of goods in the near future was normal, and the domestic price trend remained at a high level. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan / ton.

 

In November, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China fell slightly, down 5.72%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1600 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance devices have been restarted continuously, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market has increased, and the on-site delivery situation is general. Affected by negative factors, the price of ammonium nitrate market continued to decline in November, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined, which is a big negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market.

 

Melamine

In November, the overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market was loose, and the unit operating rate of the enterprise was slightly higher. The domestic liquid ammonia market tends to be stable, with a slight decline in some areas. In November, the drop of liquid ammonia was 5.43%. In late November, most of the manufacturers reported stable, some of them went down 50 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in the main production area of Shandong Province maintained stable, some of them fell 50 yuan / ton. The price in the northwest region remained stable. At present, the local ammonia volume is surplus, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply, and the enterprise’s delivery pressure is gradually increasing However, the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is mainly stable. The main quotation in Shandong is 2750-2850 yuan / ton. However, the overall trend of liquid ammonia is not optimistic nationwide. The overall trend of the upstream liquid ammonia Market declined, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable.

 

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials falls, and the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

Potassium monopersulfate

On December 1, the rare earth index was 336, unchanged from yesterday, 66.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.99% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 360000 yuan / ton, 2035000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide is 284500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1640000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 335000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide is 286500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 360000 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1630000 yuan / ton.

 

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market continued to rise, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price of heavy rare earth rose. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on the total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The total amount control indexes of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 were 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively. The total control index of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) mining in China is 105000 tons, including 78150 tons of main mining index and 26850 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In addition, the national environmental protection department has made unremitting efforts in strict inspection, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a relatively low start-up situation, and the market situation is cold, which has brought some good support to the rare earth market. Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. The supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

 

Rare earth analysts of the business club expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in China. In addition, the order of rare earth industry will be rectified in China, and the supply of rare earth industry in Jiangxi will maintain a low level. However, in the near future, the national rare earth export will get good support, and the rare earth market is expected to rise slightly.

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)