Commodity index: on December 10, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 97.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.13% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.70% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on December 1, 2019, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 15966.67 yuan / ton, and on December 10, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 15933.33 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.23% in the first ten days of this month.

Industry chain: upstream: from December to now, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has fluctuated and increased. On the first day, the quotation was about 10500 yuan / ton, on the fourth day, it soared to 12000 yuan / ton, and on the ninth day, it fell back to about 500 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. Judging from the market trend in the second half of the year, the high price of acrylonitrile appeared in the late September, and the price has been reduced in a ladder way since October, with an overall decrease of 2000-3000 yuan / ton in five months, shaking Swing range of 15% or so, this month’s market shock up. Downstream: in winter, the construction amount of water treatment project is relatively small, and the downstream procurement has a greater impact. Manufacturer: the current production of the manufacturers in the main production area of Henan Province is normal. Occasionally, the production will be stopped due to environmental protection inspection. The output will not be affected much. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the price will be slightly reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. Since the fourth quarter, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the production impact is small, and the market mainstream quotation is small and down.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in December, the north is in the heating season, and the project construction volume is reduced to a certain extent, the procurement volume is slightly affected, while the impact in the south is not significant. Environmental protection inspection is strict in all regions, production is occasionally stopped, the overall production of manufacturers has little impact, and the supply of goods is stable. So far this month, the price of acrylonitrile, as the upstream raw material, has been raised by about 1000 yuan, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased. In conclusion, polyacrylamide is not likely to be significantly lowered, and the market will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

Commodity index: on December 10, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, flat with yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: the mainstream price of domestic polyaluminium chloride Market in the first ten days of December is about 1950 yuan / ton. In the second half of 2019, after experiencing the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the current price has returned to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1; in five months, the lowest price is 1916.67 yuan / ton on July 20, the highest price is 2016.67 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 5.22%. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the main quotation range of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride mainly focuses on: the quotation with tax of 1800-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%), 380-450 yuan / ton for liquid (Industrial level, content 10% – 12%), and 10 yuan / ton for a few manufacturers.

Industrial chain: in the five months from July to November, when the manufacturer’s operating rate is high, production is normal, goods volume is sufficient and demand growth is stable, the supply is surplus and the price is down; in the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the manufacturer’s starting is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues until the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. Generally speaking, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride slightly decreased in the fourth quarter; the trend in November was similar to the extended version of “Z”; the price was stable in the first ten days of December, maintaining at 1950 yuan / ton. In the upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business agency was reduced by about 50 yuan / ton in December, and 290 yuan / ton was quoted on December 1, after which, the price was reduced in a volatile way, and about 259 yuan / ton was quoted on December 10. The downstream demand was stable and the volume was sufficient.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. 4. Since the fourth quarter, the manufacturer has been in normal production and occasionally stopped production due to environmental protection inspection, but the overall production is normal and the supply of goods is sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the overall production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal in December, the impact of environmental inspection was not significant, the supply of goods in the market was sufficient, and the upstream cost was slightly reduced. It is unlikely that the price of polyaluminium chloride will fall sharply in the future, which is mainly stable, with occasional small fluctuations and little impact.

I. price trend

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been declining continuously in recent days. At the beginning of the week (December 2), the average price of enterprises is the weekly high price, 7062 yuan / ton. At the end of the week (December 7 and 8), the average price of enterprises is the weekly low price, 6747 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 4.47%.

II. Analysis and comment

Product: at the beginning of December, influenced by the international crude oil market “Black Friday”, the price began to decline. The price has fallen by 300 yuan / ton this month. The price was still lowered on the 7th. At present, the market transaction has dropped to about 6720-7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6720-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the heavy fog in Shandong, the logistics is not smooth, and the external sources of goods are blocked, which supports the propylene market. The spot price of polymer grade propylene in the United States fell 1.25 cents on Thursday, to the lowest level in more than three years, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Industry chain: upstream, the weekend OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement was postponed and strengthened, and the international crude oil rose sharply, which had a positive impact on propylene. In the downstream, the downstream procurement is slightly better, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Recently, PP spot market still has a slight downward trend, with a weekly decline of 0.79%, which has little impact on propylene.

This week, the supply of acrylic acid decreased, and the market price rose, with a weekly increase of 1.69%. However, the downstream market is just in need of receiving goods, so we should be more cautious and wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, which will only benefit the propylene market.

In recent days, due to the reduced supply of propylene oxide Market and low inventory of downstream raw materials, prices rose, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. However, the actual order in the polyether yard is limited, which will have a certain impact on the upward price of propylene oxide. It is expected that in the short term, the market of propylene oxide will rise steadily, which will have a certain pulling effect on propylene.

However, the price of epichlorohydrin still fell, down 33.51% since November 1. At present, its cost support is weak, the downstream epoxy resin is in weak operation, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is not reduced, there is no obvious positive factor, and the upstream power is insufficient, which still has a significant suppression effect on the propylene market.

In recent days, the supply of n-butanol in China has been recovered one after another, the mentality of the industry is weak, and the market has no good news to drive, with a weekly decline of 1.59%, which has little impact on propylene.

The price of octanol remained stable this week, with little impact on propylene.

Phenol market rose slightly this week, up 1.04% on a weekly basis. The market was average, with a slight positive impact on propylene.

Acetone market recovered slightly after this week’s decline, with a weekly decline of 2.68% and a weekly amplitude of 3.30%. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak, with limited impact on propylene.

Isopropanol prices also fell this week, down 3.63%, which had a negative impact on propylene market.

III. future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the propylene market has been declining in recent days. At present, the spot price of polymer grade propylene in the United States is lower, but the logistics in Shandong has a slight impact, the OPEC + meeting production reduction agreement has been postponed and strengthened, and the international crude oil has risen sharply, so it is expected that the market price of propylene should start to stabilize and recover in recent days.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China rose slightly. As of December 9, the average price was 4865 yuan / ton, 0.30% higher than the previous trading day, and 27.92% lower than the previous year. The futures market was volatile and strong, and the main futures (2001) closed at 4820 yuan / ton, up 28 yuan / ton or 0.58% compared with the previous trading day. The spot market is dominated by traders, with sporadic factories receiving orders. In terms of plant, the 2.2 million ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is planned to be shut down for maintenance on December 10, and the planned maintenance is 10 days. The current starting load is around 96%.

Changes of PTA plants in China

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

Chuanneng chemical 100 fault stopped short on November 1, and the current load is 80%

Hengli Dalian 220 fault short stop

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. postponed the shutdown for maintenance until Dec. 10, with a planned maintenance period of 10 days

In terms of cost, the news of crude oil production reduction was boosted, and the international oil price continued to rise. As of December 6, the main futures price of international crude oil WTI was $59.20/barrel, up $0.77/barrel compared with the previous trading day, and the main futures price of Brent was $64.39/barrel, up $1.00/barrel compared with the previous trading day. The PX market in Asia closed at US $788 / T FOB South Korea and US $808 / T CFR China, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The starting load of downstream polyester is reduced to below 87%, the market price of polyester filament is basically stable, the quotation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is cautious, and the transaction is mainly for negotiation and shipment. The individual specifications of polyester FDY are increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, of which the price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is increased by 7100-7200.00 yuan / ton. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined. At present, it is around 70%, and the raw materials just need to be purchased. In autumn and winter, the transaction of clothing fabric is coming to an end. The terminal factory is currently in the process of making foreign Christmas orders. The orders are basically coming to an end, and the orders will be gradually reduced from December.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business club, believes that the rising crude oil drive and PTA’s own device overhaul have a positive impact on the price, but the PX discharge and PTA supply and demand in the evening of August 8 of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are still in the period of accumulation and polyester start-up decline, and it is expected that PTA will further rebound to drive the shortage.

General Administration of Customs: in the first 11 months, China imported 462 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 10.5%. The average import price was 3273.5 yuan per ton, down 5.1%.

Data shows that China imported 45.74 million tons of crude oil in November and 45.51 million tons in October.

General Administration of Customs: in the first 11 months, the import of refined oil was 27.25 million tons, down 10.6%. The average import price was 3833.1 yuan per ton, down 3.4%.

Data shows that China imported 2.4 million tons of refined oil in November and 2.22 million tons in October;

In addition, according to the General Administration of customs, China imported 1.06 million tons of fuel oil in November and 944000 tons in October.

General Administration of Customs: in 2018, 462 million tons of crude oil were imported.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s import of crude oil has reached 462 million tons, the same period last year. It is estimated that the import of crude oil will reach 511 million tons in 2019, breaking through 500 million tons.

Based on the average import price of 3273.5 yuan per ton in the previous 11 months, the annual crude oil import amount will reach 1672.758 billion yuan, equivalent to 238.965 billion US dollars (the exchange rate is calculated by 1:7).

Such a large-scale crude oil import and trade amount pose a challenge to China’s energy security.

Based on the 511 million tons of crude oil imported in the whole year, let’s make a simple calculation.

With 1 ton of medium crude oil = 7.3 barrels, 5.11 * 7.3 = 3.730 billion barrels of crude oil need to be imported in the whole year. On average, 10.22 million barrels of crude oil need to be imported every day in the whole year (365 days), which is indeed a large number, accounting for about 10% of global oil production. According to the EIA report in November, global crude oil supply increased by 1.5 million barrels / day to 101 million barrels / day in October.

Let’s compare the crude oil imports of 10.22 million barrels / day. According to OPEC’s November report, Saudi Arabia reported a crude oil output of 10.303 million barrels per day in October, which means Saudi Arabia, the world’s third largest oil producer, has just enough oil output to meet China’s oil imports.

From this point of view, there is still a long way to go for the strategic adjustment of our energy structure, especially for non fossil renewable energy and clean energy.

I. price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel rose this week, which is much higher than that of diesel. The price of domestic gasoline is 6695 yuan / ton, 4.35% higher than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel is 6503 yuan / ton, 0.91% higher than that of last week.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the international crude oil rose sharply after the fall, and on December 2, the domestic refined oil price was adjusted and increased, and the market price of gasoline and diesel rose this week.

Industry chain: in terms of international crude oil market, Russia announced to postpone the decision to cut production, which was negative, and then there was a positive boost, such as the reduction or postponement to the end of 2020, the unexpected drop of US crude oil inventory after increasing for several consecutive weeks. WTI crude oil prices closed at $58.40/barrel, up about 5.38% on a weekly basis.

Market: this week’s gasoline prices continue to rise sharply, first of all, the sharp rise in international crude oil prices has driven up the price of crude oil, second, some oil distributors in the market purchase a large number of oil transfer raw materials, resulting in a rise in the price of raw materials; third, the gasoline price fell to a low level in the late last month, and the gasoline market price rose by borrowing the opportunity. The price increase of diesel market is far less than that of gasoline. Firstly, the weather turns cold, the market support for diesel just needs is not enough, and secondly, the market price of gasoline and diesel in the early stage is inverted, and the gasoline price is suppressed. So this week, the market price of diesel is not as high as that of gasoline.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that although there is a possibility of a sharp rise in the short-term international crude oil price, the overall downward pressure on the oil price is relatively large. Although the demand in the gasoline market has improved, the operating load of the refinery is about 69.05%, which has been raised to a high level within the year. Diesel market is gradually entering the off-season. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel market will rise steadily next week, with limited increase.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic market price of PA66 in early December was stable, and the market maintained a weak and stable trend. As of December 6, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 23100.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

At the beginning of this month, domestic adipic acid continued to adjust its weak market. Under the background of loose supply and weak demand, the absence of cost support made the adipic acid Market worse. At present, the weakness of adipic acid has lasted for three months. Last month, the downstream demand for adipic acid became weaker. In addition, the steady increase of supply led to the increase of social inventory pressure, the high inventory of enterprises, and the effect of destocking was not obvious, resulting in a step-by-step decline in price. In the near future, the weak market in East China and South China has been mainly adjusted, with the decline narrowed compared with that in October. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively let profits go single, the market remains weak and volatile. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and there is resistance to deal. In addition, the port inventory of raw material end pure benzene this week is lower than that of last week, and the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight. Domestic pure benzene market negotiation atmosphere is good, driving the price up slightly. The high external price supports the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene enterprises have raised their expectations. However, the effect of small increase is not ideal, and the support for adipic acid is slightly insufficient. It is estimated that adipic acid will not get out of the haze in a short time before this year; in early December, PA66 market has abundant spot supply, and downstream factories generally make inquiries, maintaining just in need of replenishment, while buying gas is light. The weak mentality of the industry has not changed, and most orders are flexible.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early December, the domestic PA66 market adjusted steadily. The adipic acid in the upstream continued to weaken, with narrow adjustment and poor support for PA66 cost side. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market buying is light, the industry is still bearish, and the operation is limited. It is expected that PA66 disk will continue to run smoothly in the near future.

I. price trend

II. Market analysis

This week, the domestic potassium sulphate market is still dominated by light operation, with weak downstream demand, heavy shipping pressure of Mannheim enterprises, and conservative start-up of potassium sulphate enterprises. In recent days, the sales of Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers in Hebei Province have not improved significantly. 52% of the mainstream water-soluble powder factory offers 2700-2800 yuan / ton, while in Shandong Province, 50% of Mannheim potassium sulfate factory offers 2500-2600 yuan / ton; 52% of the powder factory offers 2700-2750 yuan / ton. In the aspect of water and salt system, the price of potassium sulfate also decreased slightly again, which increased the uncertainty of future price trend.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, the cost support is general and the demand is not strong, while the upper inventory is too much, and there is no obvious sign of rebound of potassium sulphate, and the current gluing state is continued in the later stage.

According to the latest data of China Plastics Processing Industry Association, from January to September 2019, the total output of enterprises in China’s plastics industry was 59.9361 million tons, up 4.12% year-on-year, 3.86 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

According to the introduction, resin, additives, processing equipment (including mold) are indispensable basic elements in the molding process of plastic products. In contrast, the proportion of additives in the plastic formula is less than 8%, but it plays an important role in improving the processing and application performance of products. It can be said that after the polymer resin structure is determined, the selection and application of additives is the key to the success or failure of products.

It is reported that after years of efforts, China’s production of plastic additives for industrial varieties, special or special functions has gradually increased, and great progress has been made in the renewal of green environmental protection additives, cleaner production, process improvement, etc. China’s total output of all kinds of plastic additives ranks first in the world, with the most complete varieties. Up to now, the consumption of plastic additives in China is about 6 million tons, including nearly 3 million tons of plasticizers, 500000 tons of heat stabilizers, 400000 tons of flame retardants, 400000 tons of impact modifiers and processing aids, 160000 tons of foaming agents, 200000 tons of lubricants, 200000 tons of antioxidants, 45000 tons of light stabilizers, coupling agents and antistatic agents. The environmental protection products of plasticizers and heat stabilizers have a rapid growth, while the non environmental protection products have a shrinking trend, while the other varieties are the same.

Influenced by factors such as international trade environment and tight implementation of domestic environmental protection policies, China’s plastic additives industry will face many challenges. Some important key raw materials are controlled by foreign enterprises. Domestic related enterprises need to make more efforts in core technology research and development, intellectual property protection, green safety and environmental protection.

Zhu Wenwei, President of China Plastics Processing Industry Association, suggested that we should adhere to the concept of ecological development and improve the production capacity of green environmental protection additives. “With the promotion of environmental protection policies and environmental protection standards, the development of some enterprises that use traditional backward production equipment and low-level process technology is limited, while the technology reserve is sufficient, the research and development capacity is strong, and the technology innovation, clean production and environment are emphasized Environmental protection and leading production enterprises seize new development opportunities. Enterprises must firmly establish the concept of ecological development and improve the development capacity of cleaner production and green environmental protection additives. ”

At present, there are many small and micro enterprises in the plastic additives industry, with low technology level, poor product quality control ability, and difficult government supervision. At the same time, the sales of low-end and even unqualified products damage the overall image of the industry. The industry believes that enterprises should adhere to the quality development strategy and improve the brand competition of additives. The industry should enhance the awareness of quality and brand development, actively participate in the formulation and revision of national, industrial and group standards, deepen the action of “three products”, make efforts to improve quality, increase varieties, create brands and quality products manufacturing, establish benchmark enterprises in the industry, support excellent backbone enterprises that strictly follow the standard production, pay attention to product quality, implement environmental protection transformation and invest in technology research and development Make demonstration, share experience and drive the high-quality development of the industry.

I. price trend

According to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of DAP on December 5 was 2250 yuan / ton, down 0.22% compared with December 1 (2255.00). The diammonium phosphate commodity index on December 5 was 67.11, unchanged from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 34.83% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: due to the lack of demand follow-up, the market of diammonium phosphate storage in winter is depressed, the price keeps falling, and the recent decline slows down. The operating rate of enterprises is about 50%, and some enterprises are in the process of maintenance and parking. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province is priced at 2200-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province is priced at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is priced at 2400-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province is priced at 2250-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Northwest China is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on December 5, the weak trend of raw sulfur. In Shandong Province, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is 620 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 520-600 yuan / ton. In North China, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is 560 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 510-540 yuan / ton. In East China, the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 520-660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is about 470-630 yuan / ton. The phosphorus ore market is weak and stable, the overall market is not changed much, the on-site trading remains light, and the transaction is average. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer has not improved, and enterprises are more cautious to wait and see, mainly taking goods as needed.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 8 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (67.31%), propanone (36.29%) and isopropanol (26.96%). There are 58 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 18 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 21.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 31.74%), aniline (- 19.11%) and caustic soda (- 18.56%). The average rise and fall of this month was – 1.05%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of business association think that the market of diammonium phosphate raw materials is poor, the cost support is weak, and the terminal demand is insufficient, which leads to the continuous weak operation of diammonium phosphate Market. It is now at the lowest level in the year, with supply beginning to shrink and limited space for decline. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will be weak in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the real-time market trends.