1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the overall ABS market fell in 2019, and the spot price in the domestic market shrank to a certain extent. As of December 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 22.76% from the beginning of the year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream of PA6, in the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market basically showed an inverted V-shaped trend, with a basic balance between supply and demand in the market and a stable market price. After the first quarter of the festival, due to the centralized commencement of downstream chip manufacturers, insufficient stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, and high overall starting load, the market price continued to rise. At the end of March, some caprolactam units were shut down for maintenance, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend. At the beginning of the second quarter, the early trend continued, but as the downstream demand gradually weakened, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, the market price peaked, and the industry returned to wait and see. By May and June, affected by the macro environment, the demand in the terminal market remained light. Although the starting load of upstream and downstream units in the site fell to the new low in recent years, the sluggish demand in the terminal market made the market price of caprolactam continue to fall. In the third quarter, caprolactam rose as a whole due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials. The supply of spot goods was tight, which promoted the increase of caprolactam market, and then entered the downturn in the fourth quarter. In October, the price of pure benzene began to fall, the supply of domestic products increased, and the bearish sentiment increased. Caprolactam prices began to decline in October. The downstream procurement is cautious, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds the demand.

Products: PA6 market relatively stable into the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year. After the festival, the cost side strengthened and the price recovered slightly. At the end of the first quarter, some large-scale factories reported an increase in price, and the manufacturer’s parking maintenance plan increased. On the other hand, the demand in the downstream is weak and the market is in a stalemate. By April, the demand was still not improved, but the price trend of upstream caprolactam liquid continued to strengthen, and the supply was further tight. Raw materials are lifted to PA6 disk to offset the shortage of downstream procurement. By may, the start-up rate of upstream caprolactam had increased, the inventory of manufacturers was high, and the price began to decline. PA6 lost the strong support of cost side, the confidence of domestic PA6 industry was impacted, and the quotation of manufacturers was mostly lowered. PA6 followed the rise and fall of caprolactam in July and August. After entering the “golden nine silver ten” traditional peak season, the demand of downstream industries such as home appliances has increased, which has injected the long lost good from itself into PA6 and stepped out of a wave of positive rising stage market. However, the supply of PA6 in China tends to expand, and the demand is weak for half a year, which leads to the closure of traditional peak season grass. The response of the “silver ten” peak season is limited. The manufacturers failed in trying to hold up their prices, and the prices were weak. At the end of the year, it entered the market of looking up and down. At present, PA6 keeps falling with raw materials. Looking at the market of PA6 in 2019pa6, it seems that the cloudy and sunny days of caprolactam have more reference significance. The rise and fall of PA6 spot price in the whole year is largely consistent with the upstream price, but this also reflects the fact that PA6 market is less favorable from the product itself. The growth of demand has lagged behind, the increase of domestic production capacity, PA6 has also followed other rubber and plastic brother industries into the queue of supply and demand imbalance.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in 2019, PA6 market volatility fell. The annual trend of upstream caprolactam is also not ideal, PA6 market is greatly affected by the fluctuation of upstream caprolactam. However, PA6′s own growth momentum is insufficient, and the growth of downstream demand does not match the increase of production capacity. The mentality of the industry is bearish and the operation is cautious. The downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand throughout the year, and the delivery and investment are average. PA6 market in the whole year has great upward resistance, and it is expected that it will not improve in the short term.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

2. Latest price (December 30, 2019): 11833.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

Recently, the domestic trade market began to start, because the domestic aluminum alloy factory stock up during the Spring Festival, the volume of information sheet increased. At present, social inventory continues to move down, supporting the current metal silicon price.

4. Aftermarket forecast: the aftermarket is mainly waiting for the change of downstream demand, and it is expected that the short-term stable operation of silicon metal is the main thing.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (December 30, 2019): 14166.67 yuan / ton

On December 30, 2019, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was weak and stable, and the specific price range was as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14200-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14200-14400 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: at the beginning of last week, the price of magnesium ingot stopped falling and rising. It is reported that in the near future, the number of information sheets has increased, the delivery and investment have improved, and the stock of some manufacturers is not much, and the willingness to stand up is firm. Downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers started to prepare goods years ago, and presale contracts sometimes occur.

4. Future market forecast: the overall market turns better. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will maintain stable and strong operation in the near future, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. During the week, the average market price in East China was 1560 yuan / ton from the weekend, which was stable compared with the weekend last year, down 26.53% year on year. On December 27, the commodity index of light soda ash was 80.00, flat with yesterday, down 32.12% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.68% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price market is weak and stable, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The market trend of soda ash has not changed much, the inventory of enterprises is under certain pressure, and the shipment of individual enterprises has improved, and the maintenance or reduction of devices has been achieved. This week, the number of maintenance and production restriction manufacturers increased, and the weighted average starting load of soda ash manufacturers was 81.19%. Prices fell to a low level, downstream users moderately prepared goods before the festival, some downstream demand performance improved, and enterprise inventory decreased. Spot price: 1530 yuan / ton of heavy soda in Shahe market; 1700 yuan / ton of heavy soda in North China and 1600 yuan / ton of heavy soda in East China.

In terms of supply: the 300000 ton plant of Hebang No.1 plant is expected to start operation next week. Shaanxi Xinghua and Henan Junhua plan to start operation in the past two days. In the process of continuous production restriction of sodium carbonate in Haihua, the southern alkali industry is operating at half load, which affects the output as a whole. The enterprise inventory has been eased, and the trend of sodium carbonate is stable. At present, it is still the centralized period for downstream users to prepare goods before the Spring Festival. The overall order receiving and shipment situation of soda ash manufacturers is improved, and the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers may be relieved next week.

Demand: downstream demand, general performance, purchasing sentiment improved. The downstream demand of light alkali is general, the price of domestic baking soda continues to decline in the near future, the market of daily glass, sodium tripolyphosphate, effervescence alkali, monosodium glutamate and other products is general, and the overall profit is low. The downstream of heavy soda is dominated by glass enterprises. The float glass manufacturers have little change in the amount of soda ash. The price of soda ash is at a low level. The glass manufacturers have a good profit situation, stable production, and a long period of safety stock. Before the Spring Festival, the glass manufacturers should properly stock up.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, the delivery situation of domestic soda ash manufacturers has improved recently, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. The downstream demand is general, and the end-user shall replenish the warehouse and stock up properly before the Spring Festival. Although the operating rate and domestic inventory of some soda ash enterprises have declined recently, the inventory is still at a high level, and the period price is still under obvious pressure. Considering the Spring Festival, traders are more cautious to watch the market, and it is expected that the soda ash market will be sorted out and operated next week.

In this week (12.23-12.27), the price of NBR fell slightly. At the beginning of the week, the price of NBR was 16433 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the price of NBR was 16333 yuan / ton, with a slight decline of 0.61% overall.

Low price of raw butadiene

Butadiene price is low, which weakens the support for NBR. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in this week (12.23-12.27) is around 8345 yuan / ton, with little overall change.

Stable ex factory price of petrochemicals

The unit of NBR manufacturer in China is in normal operation, the factory price of NBR is stable, and the overall operation rate of NBR unit is around 70%. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 15000 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 15500 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 15600 yuan / ton.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand, so the overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable.

Outlook for the future

According to Xu Xiaokun, an analyst of business agency, the price of raw materials is low, and the downstream inquiry is on demand, so the overall NBR is slightly weak. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the later period.

Slava kiryushin, DWF’s head of global energy, highlighted the expected trends in the global energy sector in 2020, according to hydrocarbon processing news on December 26.

When it comes to global oil trade in 2020, kiryushin is expected to see oversupply. “Many oil traders predict a bull market for the global oil industry in 2020, and some of them even speculate that oil prices could reach $100 / barrel,” he said. However, recent market analysis shows that this is unlikely to happen, and the market will be in a state of oversupply. I think this is mainly due to the increase of shale gas production and the lower than expected global economic growth. The latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) supports the idea that there will be a global oversupply. ”

“Even the new shipping fuel regulation (i.e. IMO 2020) to be implemented in January 2020 is not expected to change this trend, although it may lead to increased demand for low sulfur gasoline and diesel. There is no doubt that the growth of oil supply is a sensitive topic for OPEC + member countries, because 500000 barrels / day of production has been agreed to be cut from OPEC’s supply. Overall, the market is not so optimistic about the ‘recovery’ of oil prices. ”

According to kiryushin, demand for natural gas is likely to increase by 2020. “Unlike hydrocarbons, natural gas demand is likely to grow in 2020 and beyond,” he said. Whether it’s due to IMO 2020, the demand for chemical products (requiring natural gas) or the environmental impetus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it can prove that the demand for natural gas will increase. ”

“Climate change also has a significant impact on gas demand. Whether it’s using natural gas as a fuel to keep the northern hemisphere warm in the cold winter or converting it into electricity to drive air conditioning in the hot summer, natural gas will remain at the forefront of the energy sector in 2020. ”

“The only real question is whether oil related gas prices are sufficiently competitive with alternative fuels.”

1、 Price trend

In 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province fluctuated, and on the whole, it rose significantly. The price of hydrochloric acid in the first and second quarter all rose tentatively, but it was weak in the follow-up, and the price fell again after sticking to it for several days. From the third quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise all the way, especially in the first ten days of November. According to the data monitored by the business association, in 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province rose, and the average price quoted by mainstream manufacturers rose from 90.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 273.33 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 203.70%. It can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of hydrochloric acid that the highest comprehensive quotation of hydrochloric acid Market in 2019 is at the end of November, with the quotation of 290.00 yuan / ton, while the lowest price appears at the end of May, with the quotation of 70.00 yuan / ton, the highest difference of 220.00 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 314.29%.

2、 Trend analysis

In 2019, the comprehensive price trend of hydrochloric acid is roughly divided into two stages in the first half of the year: the first half of the year saw tentative increase in the price of hydrochloric acid, but the subsequent support was insufficient; in the second half of the year, affected by the market of liquid chlorine, the price of hydrochloric acid began to rise. The specific trend is as follows:

First half of the year: the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province increased slightly. As can be seen from the hydrochloric acid trend chart above, the price of hydrochloric acid rose slightly in the first half of the year. The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid rose from 90 yuan / ton on January 1 to 100 yuan / ton on June 30, an increase of 11.11%. During this period, the price of hydrochloric acid rose twice in the first and second quarter. In the first quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose from 90 yuan / ton on January 1 to 150 yuan / ton on January 8, an increase of 66.67%, and the price began to fall after five days. In the second quarter, the price of hydrochloric acid rose from 80 yuan / ton on March 25 to 177.50 yuan / ton on April 12, an increase of 121.88%. Although the price lasted a long time in the second quarter, in May, the price of hydrochloric acid began to fall again. In the first half of the year, although the production and sales rate of the original salt was 97%, the price of the liquid chlorine market peaked in April.

In the second half of the year: the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong Province started to rise. As can be seen from the hydrochloric acid trend chart above, the price of hydrochloric acid rose significantly in the second half of the year. The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid rose from 100 yuan / ton on July 1 to 273.33 yuan / ton on December 26, an increase of 173.33%. During this period, the price of hydrochloric acid rose most obviously in the first ten days of November, and the quotation rose from 163.33 yuan / ton on November 4 to 290.00 yuan / ton on November 13, an increase of 77.55%. In the third quarter of the second half of the year, the production and sales rate of the original salt was 99.7%, and the liquid chlorine market also had the highest price in November.

3、 Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Although the original salt production and sales rate slightly fell in 2019, the cumulative percentage of the original salt production and sales rate fell from 120.08% in the first quarter to 97% in the second quarter, and then slightly rose to 99.7% in the third quarter. However, the market performance of liquid chlorine in 19 years was strong, and compared with the previous positive and negative market, there was a sense of “strong counterattack” in 19 years. During this period, the market peaked in April and November respectively, reaching a high-end price of 1100 yuan / ton.

Downstream market: Although the market price of hydrochloric acid has been greatly increased, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand. The downtrend of downstream market is serious, and the construction is declining, which directly leads to the decrease of hydrochloric acid commodity supply, laying a foundation for the continuous upward trend of hydrochloric acid market.

4、 Future forecast

Hydrochloric acid market may continue to consolidate at a high level in early 2020. From the perspective of Shandong Province, there are still new projects in the downstream in 2020, and the caustic soda market will still have greater pressure in 2020 under the transformation and upgrading of China and environmental protection at all levels. It is expected that the hydrochloric acid market will continue to be consolidated at a high level at the beginning of 2020.

1、 Market Overview

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic fluorite fell sharply in 2019, with an average price of 3633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 28944400 tons at the end of the year, with a decline of 20.34% for the whole year. As can be seen clearly from the price trend chart of fluorite, the highest price of fluorite in 2019 appears at the beginning of the year, with the highest price of 3633.33 yuan / ton. The lowest price of fluorite appears on April 22, with the lowest price of 2815 yuan / ton. The market price of the whole year drops sharply.

2、 Market analysis

In 2019, the price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of April, and the price of domestic fluorite market drops sharply; the second stage is from the late April to the middle of July, and the price of domestic fluorite rebounds and rises; the third stage is from the late July to the end of the year, and the price trend of fluorite fluctuates and falls, and the specific trend is as follows:

In the first stage, from the beginning of 2019 to the middle of April, the price of fluorite in the domestic market dropped sharply. The price at the beginning of the year was 3633.33 yuan / ton, and the price in the middle of April was 2815 yuan / ton, with a sharp decline of 22.10%. The main impacts are as follows: on the one hand, in terms of supply, due to the warm weather, the recent start-up and restart of domestic fluorite plants, the continuous opening of mines and flotation plants in the field, the supply of fluorite in the field is relatively increased, the domestic fluorite field has sufficient spot supply, and the price of fluorite continues to decline; on the other hand, in terms of demand, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have sufficient stock before the year, during the holidays After the purchase is limited, the fluorite market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid drops sharply. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid drops by as much as 25%. The downstream market price of hydrofluoric acid drops and the raw materials of manufacturers are in stock. The fluorite market is dragged down and the price keeps falling. Finally, the downstream refrigerant product units in the terminal market are generally started, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is weakened, the downstream refrigerant trading market is general, the unit starting rate in R22 market is low, the main production enterprises mainly ship a small amount of steel cylinders, and the actual demand of the market has declined, so the shipping market trend is poor. The market price of R134a in China is low, the unit operating rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is weak, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Affected by various negative factors, the price of fluorite in the first stage fell sharply.

The second stage is from late April to mid July, with domestic fluorite prices rebounding and rising. The price of fluorite in China increased from 2815 yuan / ton to 3150 yuan / ton, or 12%. The price of fluorite in China has risen. On the one hand, as the domestic refrigeration industry enters the peak season of sales, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant keeps rising, and the demand for fluorite has increased. The price of fluorite is higher supported by the favorable market. On the other hand, the supply of domestic fluorite enterprises is a little tight, environmental protection efforts are not reduced, the operating rate of small fluorite manufacturers is low, the supply of domestic fluorite is insufficient, and the price of fluorite is supported to some extent. In the second price segment, the price of domestic fluorite rose, but the overall demand did not improve significantly. The price of fluorite rose 10% in three months.

The third stage is from late July to the end of the year. Fluorite prices fluctuated and fell. With the end of the sales peak season of the domestic refrigeration industry, the price of domestic fluorite returned to a downward trend. In late July, the price was 3150 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the price of fluorite was 2894.44 yuan / ton, with a decline of 8% in the third stage. During this period, the supply of fluorite in China was normal, and some fluorite manufacturers had high inventory, which made the price of fluorite decline. In addition, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant industry in the second half of the year was very low. According to statistics, the overall operating rate of the refrigeration industry was about 30%. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry was not good. The demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid was not improved, and the price of fluorite gradually declined. Finally, the price of fluorite from abroad has impacted the domestic fluorite market. Fluorite from Mongolia and Central Asian countries has been imported to China. The price of imported fluorite is relatively low. The domestic fluorite market has been impacted, and the price of fluorite is low.

In general, in 2019, the fluorite market dropped significantly, and the price trend of all products in the fluorine chemical industry declined. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite in 2019 is as follows:

From the correlation trend chart of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, it can be clearly seen that the two trends are quite similar. In 2019, the market prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are significantly lower, domestic demand is not improving, and the market of fluorine chemical raw materials is not good.

3、 Future forecast

Chen Ling, an analyst with fluorite business club, thinks that fluorite market will be tepid in 2020. From the perspective of fluorite market supply, domestic environmental protection efforts will not be reduced, and some domestic fluorite manufacturers are still unable to start normal operation. The supply of domestic fluorite market will be limited to some extent, so fluorite price will be supported to some extent. However, in the near future, the export volume of domestic fluorite has increased, and the price of imported fluorite is all the same On the low side, the market price of fluorite will continue to be impacted, and the pressure on the price of fluorite in China is huge. Therefore, in 2020, the highest market price of fluorite will not exceed the level of 3400 yuan / ton. Influenced by the strengthening of domestic environmental protection, the lowest price of fluorite will also remain above 2700 yuan / ton in 2020.

In 2019, the PE market trend is fluctuating downward. Among them, LLDPE fell by 20.54%, HDPE by 19.9% and LDPE by 11.76%. On the one hand, supply demand and terminal purchase are weak, on the other hand, the trade environment is complex and changeable, which has a great impact on the domestic spot market. In addition, the demand for polyethylene terminal in 2019 is mainly rigid. In 2019, the capacity of new polyethylene investment devices at home and abroad will exceed 8 million tons / year. According to statistics, the total output of plastic products in January August 2019 will be 60.669 million tons, an increase of 8.1% year on year. Many factors contributed to the ups and downs of the polyethylene market, continuous bottom. Let’s see in detail:

2、 Market analysis

In the first quarter, the PE market overall fell. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches in January, the lack of demand expectation leads to the cautious attitude of the industry, which is mainly based on wait-and-see. With the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream factories gradually enter the holiday. The lack of demand expectation, the enthusiasm of the downstream market is weakened, the market transaction atmosphere is weakened, and the spot market atmosphere is pessimistic. After the festival, the downstream production resumed, the operating rate increased, and some of them were purchased in the market. However, petrochemicals have accumulated a large amount of inventory, reaching over 1.1 million tons. Petrochemicals has increased its efforts to reduce inventory, and its terminal mentality is cautious. Its enthusiasm for entering the market has obviously turned weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased. However, supported by the easing of Sino US trade war, tension in the Middle East and OPEC production reduction, crude oil rose in a wave and WTI and Brent continued to rise. Crude oil plays a supporting role in polyethylene market. PE market is stable and down.

In the second quarter, PE market fell in shock. At the beginning of the quarter, the overall market rebounded slightly. Affected by the peak demand season of the downstream agricultural film and mulch film in the first quarter, and the continued upward oil price in the beginning of the month, some manufacturers were in the state of maintenance, which was good for the surrounding market, and petrochemical’s strong price mentality was obvious. Under the influence of tax reduction policy, the market is also favorable, the trading atmosphere is more positive, and the price rebounds slightly. But the good times didn’t last long, and then the market fell one after another. After entering the second quarter, as the demand for agricultural film and mulch film gradually decreased, the price support of downstream demand for PE began to weaken. Affected by the Sino US trade war and other aspects, plastic futures began to dive, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the continuous supply of imported goods has led to continuous price reduction. However, due to the poor economic environment and demand, the middlemen and the downstream are mostly purchasing on demand and operating in low warehouse. As a result, PE’s social inventory declined slowly and remained at a historical high level. Some petrochemicals cancelled the price increase sales and lowered the factory price one after another. Although crude oil and futures rose sharply at the end of the month, and merchants tested the high report, the terminal still maintained just in need of replenishment, and the downstream demand was poor. With sufficient supply and high social inventory, suppliers can only gradually reduce the sales price. It is difficult to close a deal at a high price. PE market continued to weaken.

In the third quarter, due to the arrival of the traditional supply period, it should be the peak season of the plastic market, but the peak season effect is not obvious due to multiple negative effects. There are many changes in the downstream operation mode, and the manufacturer’s procurement is more rational. Futures rebounded after the fall at the beginning of the quarter and continued to rise. In addition, crude oil rose sharply, which boosted the spot market more and rose slightly. But the good times are not long. The PE spot market fell again in mid July. The increase of futures positions continued to fluctuate and fell below the 8000 level. The market pressure mentality is obvious, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises increases, and the enthusiasm for entering the market decreases. Futures continued to decline, market trading was weak, the pressure on distributors to ship increased, and the bearish attitude towards the future market increased. The stock of petrochemical enterprises is gradually accumulated, and the ex factory price is lowered one after another. The cost side of the market lost its support and the price fell continuously. In the later stage, although the petrochemical inventory decreased, the speed was slow, the traders were pessimistic, accompanied by low reports, and the delivery was the main thing. The downstream enterprises have weak intention of receiving goods. They purchase on demand and operate with low inventory. The overall trading atmosphere of the spot market continues to be light. It was not until mid September that the market stopped falling and rising. Affected by the rebound of futures bottoming, the industry kept a bullish attitude towards the future market. Petrochemicals has entered a rapid inventory removal cycle, and the factory price has been continuously increased. This is obvious in LDPE, with a large increase of 4.9% in the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter, the polyethylene market is lack of obvious good, and the market performance continues to be weak. Although the beginning of the season is still in the “silver ten” peak season, but the downstream orders are not as good as the previous years, and the raw material prices are more bearish, mainly for just need to get goods, and the market shipping pressure still exists. In October, the stronger oil price and futures, together with the rise of petrochemicals, supported the market to a certain extent, while the spot price was relatively strong, mainly with narrow adjustment. In the middle of the quarter, futures continued to break, striking market confidence was obvious. In some regions of petrochemicals, prices were continuously lowered, cost support was weak, businesses kept and dumped goods, and the three varieties all fell to varying degrees. The enthusiasm of downstream factories to enter the market is still not improved, and they always hold a wait-and-see attitude. The factory’s shipment continues to be poor, and the transaction atmosphere is light. In the later period, with the shock of linear futures rising, merchants’ mentality was better, and more positive reports were made, but the atmosphere of taking goods downstream did not improve, so they continued to suppress the market mentality. The plastic market only rebounded slightly, and then continued to be weak.

3、 Future forecast

In 2019, the overall trend of polyethylene is in a downward trend, until the end of the year, the degree of profit is relatively limited, and the market is still low, weak and short. PE analysts of the business association believe that the supply side pressure of PE is still relatively large, the demand side is still in the pattern of oversupply, and the price of PE is already in the low position. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in 2020. In addition to the large fluctuations that may occur in the maintenance season and the downstream traditional procurement season, the overall change range will be eased compared with this year.

1、 Market trend of synthetic rubber

In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in a fluctuating trend

In 2019, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was mainly in shock trend. Taking August as the watershed, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell in a narrow range before August; after August, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose first and then fell rapidly. In 2019, the high price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 12900 yuan / ton on September 27, and the low price is 10450 yuan / ton on July 18, which can be roughly divided into six stages

In the first stage, before March 2019, due to the lack of supply in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market around the lunar new year, traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, with prices above 11700 yuan / ton;

In the second stage, from the beginning of March to the middle of April, with the recovery of petrochemical plants, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, and the downstream starts are not as expected. The overall performance of the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, and the price drops to 11000 yuan / ton. In the third stage, from the middle of April to the middle of June, on the one hand, the price of raw materials fluctuates up and down, on the other hand, the downstream starts gradually recover, and the price of cis-1,2-polybutadiene rubber is maintained at 11200 yuan/ Small shocks above tons;

In the fourth stage, from the middle of June to the end of July, the supervision of environmental protection became more strict, the operating rate of downstream tire and product factories declined, and the price of raw material butadiene fell, the contradiction between upstream and downstream supply and demand became larger, and the price of cis-1,5-polybutadiene rubber fell all the way to around 10500 yuan / ton;

In the fifth stage, from the end of July to the middle of November, under the pressure of the rising cost of crude oil and butadiene in the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply to 12900 yuan / ton along the way. Then, with the collapse of cost and the continuous lack of demand, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply to 10725 yuan / ton along the way, forming a roller coaster trend of rapid rise and fall;

In the sixth stage, from the middle of November to the end of the year, on the one hand, the price of natural rubber rose, which led to the bullish atmosphere of synthetic rubber; on the other hand, the stock of market traders was low, with strong willingness to stand up, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose slightly.

Overall, in 2019, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply and fell sharply in the third quarter, except for the impact of unexpected events. In the whole year, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was basically in a weak shock situation affected by weak demand.

In 2019, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell first and then rose, with the overall year-end slightly down 2.5% compared with the beginning of the year.

In the first seven months of 2019, the domestic price of SBR declined all the way, from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10112 yuan / ton, the lowest point in July. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, the raw material butadiene fell all the way in the first half of the year, and the cost of SBR was under pressure. According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic butadiene price in the first half of the year dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. Secondly, the cost of raw materials has been greatly reduced, the styrene butadiene production enterprises have high operating rate driven by profits, the market supply is sufficient, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber has been suppressed. Finally, at the beginning of the year, the start-up of downstream enterprises recovered slowly. In April and may, they encountered policies such as limited production and power supply and strict environmental protection inspection. The start-up rate of downstream tire factories continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the downstream procurement continued to be weak, which was a big negative for SBR.

From the beginning of August to the end of December, the price of domestic SBR rose in shock, from 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 11700 yuan / ton at the end of the year. On the one hand, from the beginning of August to the beginning of November, styrene butadiene rubber rose sharply and fell under the influence of cost. In the early stage, due to the black swan incident of crude oil and the decline of butadiene start-up, the price of crude oil and raw material butadiene went up all the way, and the cost side drove the rise of SBR; in the later stage, with the cost side falling, the price of SBR went down. On the other hand, in the downstream, especially in the tire factory, the operating rate in the second half of the year was relatively high, and the demand for rubber was relatively strong, which to some extent supported the rubber price.

2、 Price trend of raw materials

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of butadiene in 2019 fluctuated and adjusted, falling in the first half of the year as a whole, rising and falling in the second half of the year. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene dropped from 9836 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to around 7812 yuan / ton at the end of April. After that, with the increase of the outer price and the maintenance of the manufacturer’s devices, the supply of butadiene decreased, and the price gradually rose to August. In September and October, affected by the “black swan” incident of crude oil, the price quickly rose to the annual peak of 11845 yuan / ton. After that, on the one hand, the hype was released, on the other hand, the high price led to the purchase list, and then gradually fell back to the end of the year near 8300 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price trend of raw material butadiene basically keeps pace with that of synthetic rubber, and the influence of industrial chain is relatively close.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of styrene will fluctuate and adjust in 2019, with the overall price rising first and then falling. As of December 20, the average price of styrene quoted by styrene enterprises is 7450.00 yuan / ton, which is 8066.67 yuan / ton compared with that of styrene quoted at the beginning of 2019 (January 1), a sharp drop, a drop of 7.64%, and a drop of 9.51% compared with that of the same period last year. Generally speaking, 2019 is a year of strong supply and demand of styrene. Although the price has declined all the way compared with 2018, the industry profit of styrene is still good throughout the year, and the industry cash flow continuity is good.

3、 Downstream tire demand support

As of November 2019, the output of domestic rubber tires was 72.467 million, up 3.3% year on year; from January to November, the output of domestic rubber tires was 767.609 million, up 2.2% year on year. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of output in the first half of the year was negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of output in the second half of the year gradually picked up to more than 2%. From the point of view of the support of demand for synthetic rubber, the support in the first half of the year was weak, while the support in the second half of the year was slightly strong.

4、 Future forecast

In 2020, there are three trends of synthetic rubber: first, the impact of Sino US trade friction. At present, the Sino US trade friction shows signs of easing, which is relatively favorable for the later tire and other rubber products exports. However, due to the possibility of repetition in the later stage, there is still a certain degree of negative impact on the start-up and consumption of downstream industries of synthetic rubber next year; second, raw materials butadiene, styrene and upstream crude oil Trend impact: in 2010, when the raw material market is not limited to production or maintenance, the price is basically in the range of shocks, which also affects the price of synthetic rubber within the range; 3. The impact of the start-up of synthetic rubber production enterprises, on the one hand, in recent two years, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber production has been surplus, and the overall unit operation rate is lower than 60% for a long time under the control of low demand. On the other hand, the production capacity of cis-1.6 million tons of butadiene rubber is almost surplus. At present, only Zhenjiang Qimei 40000 tons / year and Shandong Shengxing device have production plans. However, due to the fact that it is still in the early stage of planning, it is unlikely to be put into production in the next two years. It is expected that the production capacity of synthetic rubber will be basically stable in the later stage, and the operating rate depends on the market supply pressure and profit size.