I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be weak in October, with weak prices. As of October 31, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 23050.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

In October, the domestic market of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 continued the weak market in September, and the price fluctuated and fell. Weak supply and demand is a major dilemma of adipic acid in the past two months, as well as the loss of support on the cost side and negative spot market in many aspects. In October, the downstream demand did not improve, and the steady increase of supply led to the increase of social inventory pressure. Enterprises have the willingness to reduce price and inventory, so the price fell again. In terms of region, the markets of East China and South China have declined, ranging from 200-500 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, dealers are mainly active in shipping, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits. In addition, the upstream cost side lost the key support, and pure benzene ended the booming market. In October, it turned down. According to the monitoring of the business agency, pure benzene fell as much as 6.12% in October, and adipic acid also fell. It is expected that adipic acid will be difficult to get out of the haze in the short term; at the beginning of this month, the spot supply of PA66 market is still abundant, the parking and maintenance in the middle and late ten days will be expanded, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers will be relieved. On the news side, the three major U.S. stock indexes received higher news at the end of the month, indirectly benefiting PA66 market. Downstream factories are still just in need of goods, and the demand has not improved and remains weak. The market is generally bullish, and the mentality of the operators is limited. But at the end of the month, the merchants began to try to adjust the prices, and the delivery and investment are mostly flexible. Although there is a moderation trend at the end of the month, the overall market of PA66 in October still shows a weak adjustment.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in October, the domestic PA66 market was weak. The peak season of adipic acid in the upstream is not good, the trend is falling, and the support for PA66 cost surface is limited. At present, the spot supply has been reduced due to the impact of the decline in the operating rate, and the inventory of manufacturers has been reduced. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and the strategy of just need to take the goods as the main strategy. The market is flat, and the industry is mainly in a wait-and-see attitude. PA66 shows signs of recovery in the near future, and it is expected that PA66 will be adjusted by shocks in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market fell in October and the spot price weakened. As of October 31, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 8550.00 yuan / ton, down 3.57% from the beginning of the month.

II. Cause analysis

Upstream: in terms of upstream propylene, due to the impact of the policy of production restriction and operation restriction on the National Day holiday at the beginning of October, the price of propylene has been generally stable, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, the spot prices of most enterprises began to fluctuate and fall on the 17th. At present, it is reported that the haze weather is aggravating, which has adverse effects on the devices and logistics transportation in the area. In the upstream, the explosion of Iranian oil tanker in early October led to an obvious rise in international crude oil, which had a certain effect on propylene. However, in the later period, the crude oil market failed to maintain the upward trend, which was relatively low and weak support for propylene. The downstream demand is general, which has no positive impact on propylene. It is expected that the price of propylene in Shandong Province will still decline in the short term.

Product: the overall price of PP market fell in October, weak callback. The upstream propylene market was weakened, and the cost support for PP was limited. In terms of supply, in the middle of this month, the units such as Anyuan united and Daqing Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation again, with the domestic operation rate reaching 90%, and the peak season of PP maintenance was ended. New equipment capacity is also gradually put into production. In addition, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are expected to be put into production in November. Qinghai Damei coal, Lihe Zhixin will be put into production in the fourth quarter, and domestic supply pressure will continue to increase. In terms of demand, the replenishment of downstream factories after saving has been completed one after another, and a few factories are seeking for bargains and just need to purchase, without centralized replenishment. Under the influence of environmental protection policies, it is difficult to further improve the downstream operating rate, which is still low compared with the same period last year. Merchants offer to follow the fall, let the profit go single, the floor trading is flat. At present, the speed of petrochemical de stocking is slowing down.

III. future forecast

PP analysts of business club think: the overall domestic PP price fell in October. The upstream propylene market is poor, and the cost end support is limited. The demand for replenishment of downstream factories has become weak, and the demand for replenishment is mainly rigid. Due to the increase of domestic operation rate, PP supply is large and price is under pressure. It is expected that the PP market will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the near future. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply of PP in the near future.

I. price trend

Since the rapid rise of LNG caused by the northwest auction in late October, the price has been rising and falling in recent days. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on November 1 was 4750 yuan / ton, and the average price on November 5 was 4256.67 yuan / ton, with a 10.39% drop in LNG price, down 5.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 5, LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 4270 yuan / ton, and LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is about 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 4200 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. is 4200 yuan / ton. The liquid prices of all regions have been continuously falling.

Market analysis: Recently, the LNG market has stopped rising and started to fall continuously. The large-scale skyrocketing market caused by the northwest auction was fleeting, and it continued to decline since the 2nd, and some manufacturers had a second price adjustment in a day. At present, some manufacturers need to buy high price gas source to maintain the power on, and some manufacturers need to wait and see. At present, the environmental protection is relatively strict, and we are actively building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. The downstream industrial gas demand is general, and the focus of transaction price is shifted down. Due to the limited acceptance capacity of the terminal, the liquid level of LNG plant rises, which is unfavorable for shipment, and the manufacturer bears pressure to reduce the price. The overall market is still in a situation of oversupply. Under the double restriction of the rising cost and the lack of obvious demand boost in the downstream, some liquid plants have the phenomenon of cost hanging upside down, which does not rule out the possibility of further price reduction.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on November 4, 2019, with WTI crude oil (3.73%), Brent crude oil (2.42%) and MTBE (1.58%) as the top three commodities There are 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 8.07%), coking coal (- 2.86%) and coke (- 2.00%) The average price of this day was – 0.31%.

III. future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business club, in recent years, natural gas has been declining one after another, and the pressure of middlemen’s sales is too high. In order to reduce the price of goods, some middlemen’s profits have been hung upside down, and their mentality is relatively negative. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of LNG will be weak, or it will continue to bear the pressure of price reduction.

The Chicago Plastics Exchange said domestic demand in the spot resin Market slowed last week as new prices were asking for more, but strong exports again brought volume to a stable level. Some special discounts on commodity grades in the domestic market – suppliers still have tram orders that need to be disposed of by the end of the month, helping to transport some materials, but despite one-time transactions, the overall pricing of PE and PP remains stable.

After an increase of $0.03/lb in September, the PE contract price in October was basically flat. In case of severe supply interruption or market shock, the price increase of $0.04/lb is still under consideration. The PP contract price rose 1 cent in September, but then the single contract price fell 0.02 USD / pound in October. The increase in exports continues to cause congestion in Houston’s transport network, resulting in a large build-up of rail vehicles waiting to be packed. These delays have led to an increase in the price of packaging materials.

The spot PE market has done quite well in one week, but it’s a tough fight. Only healthy export sales can boost weak domestic demand. In the past few weeks, domestic asking prices have risen slightly to better align with the US $0.03/lb contract increase implemented in September. However, processors have begun to prepare for reduced year-end inventory, so orders have been calculated and quantities minimized as needed. As a result, trading was challenged and supply then squeezed to achieve competitive pricing, tightening trading margins last week. September’s 3 cents / pound gain was solid, and the $0.04/pound nomination for October was postponed to November. As the rest of the world continues to use the U.S. market for reasonably priced discounted materials, exports remain active. According to the plastics exchange, if participants are willing to work alone, there will be a large amount of incremental preparation to be transferred through this channel.

Spot PP trading is good, but not special, PP Homopolymer and PP copolymer prices closed flat this week. While the supply of these two types of materials is generally sufficient, the market should not be classified as severely oversupplied because it requires skilled search to match the right supply with the spot demand. Completed deals tend to be trucks rather than railroad cars and copolymer PP. In its weekly report, the plastics exchange wrote that in the past week, traders in our market have been more active in buying goods than processors. Although the PP contract fell 0.02 USD / lb this month, the price of spot materials has been greatly discounted, so the trading price of resin exchange has actually stabilized to a lower level, because these levels are moving towards convergence.

I. trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price rose slightly, with a quotation of 47035 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from the previous day, down 2.34% from the beginning of the year, and down 4.41% year on year.

II. Market analysis

In recent years, copper prices have fluctuated in a narrow range. Basically, the supply is tight. From the perspective of China’s crude copper import source countries, Zambia and Chile account for nearly 80% of the total imports. The change of imported crude copper is mostly related to the supply of crude copper in these two countries. From January to August this year, the crude copper import from Chile fell to 78000 tons from 156000 tons last year; the crude copper import from Zambia fell to 302000 tons from 326000 tons last year. The demand is weak, the proportion of construction copper is easy to be underestimated by the market, and there is a demand for catching up in the fourth quarter of grid investment, but from the perspective of grid bidding, there is no obvious increase in the fourth quarter. In addition, it is difficult to improve the consumption of automobiles and air conditioners in the fourth quarter.

III. future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts from nonferrous branch of business agency believe that: the non-agricultural data in the United States is better than expected and the Sino US trade negotiations are smooth, boosting the market. However, the supply and demand of copper market are weak, and copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend.

With the continuous growth of plastic products consumption in the United States, the plastic industry in the United States achieved a trade surplus of 500 million US dollars in 2018, which is rare in the manufacturing industry.

Although the U.S. plastics industry is one of the manufacturing sectors that has maintained a trade surplus for many years, the trade surplus in 2018 fell sharply compared with the $3 billion trade surplus in 2017.

“In addition to the use of imported intermediate products in the U.S. plastics manufacturing industry, a strong dollar and sustained economic development in the United States have increased the willingness of U.S. consumers to buy imported products.” Dr. perc Pineda, chief economist of the American Plastics Industry Association, said, “this has led to a faster growth in imports than exports, narrowed the US trade surplus and showed the strong demand for plastics in the US market.”

In addition, the apparent consumption of plastic products in the U.S. in 2018 increased by 6.9% based on the difference between shipments and exports plus the sum of imports.

“Based on these reports, we believe that the U.S. plastic industry is still full of vitality, the U.S. economy maintains strong development, and the demand for plastics and plastic products continues to grow.” Tony radoszewski, President and CEO of the American Plastics Industry Association.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, as of November 4, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12525 yuan / ton, with the price falling 4.02% month on month and 5.59% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The overall market continued to be light.

II. Market analysis

Product: last Friday (11.1), the domestic aggregate MDI market was weak. The new moon listing policies of suppliers have been issued one after another, with stable prices and strict market control. It can be seen that enterprises have strong intention to stabilize the market. At present, the industry keeps stable delivery, but due to the lack of good market and weak market inquiry atmosphere, the industry tends to be pessimistic about the future market. It is expected that the short-term aggregate MDI market range is weak, focusing on the demand situation.

Market, North China and Shandong aggregate MDI market deadlock. Suppliers are listed in new moon to maintain stability, and some enterprises continue to reduce supply. However, downstream demand is weak, the mentality of middlemen is poor, the market spot is still tight at the beginning of the month, and most of the enterprises keep stable shipment. East China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. Suppliers’ information has been released one after another, enterprises have been shipping at a stable price, and downstream small orders have entered the market on demand. Market trading is not smooth, and some operators are under pressure of post market mentality, mainly shipping. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. The suppliers’ information has been announced one after another, and the market is still strictly controlled, the downstream demand is weak, the market is not smooth in terms of firm offer and trading, the operators are lack of confidence in the future market, and the delivery is the main thing.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in December, the seller intends to pay 623 US dollars / ton fob in Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market is sorted out, and the negotiation reference is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Part of the buying intention is slightly low, the optimistic attitude is insufficient, and the external market shock lacks support for domestic trade.

Aniline: the focus of aniline Market is stable. East China’s enterprises have limited market volume. They purchase on demand downstream. The atmosphere of market real offer and investment is general. The price of raw materials is loose. The industry has insufficient confidence in the future market. The enterprises keep a stable delivery.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. Supply side new moon policies have been issued one after another to keep less volume on the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and most of the business owners are lack of confidence in the future market. According to MDI analysts, the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market range is sorted out and the transaction is low-end.

I. price trend

In October 2019, the domestic BDO market rose first and then stabilized. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the end of the first month was 9520 yuan / ton, down 15.38% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market this month is stable for the time being, but the market atmosphere is slightly better than that in the earlier stage. In the early stage, the starting load of the factory is not high, and the inventory pressure is not available for the time being. Therefore, the mentality of the enterprise is stable, the intention to pull up is high, the price is low, and the traders are reluctant to sell. The attitude of market protection is continued, the offer is firm, the downstream market entry prudence is not reduced, and the waiting atmosphere is becoming stronger.

In terms of devices, the operation rate of BDO plant increased significantly in October, Cathay Pacific + Tunhe + Inner Mongolia Dongyuan + Ronghe + Kaixiang was restarted in succession, the on-site supply increased, the long-term supply tended to be stable, and the shortage of spot supply eased. Although the supply of re production plants is gradually filling the market, three new plants were well maintained in early November, including Xinjiang Meike, hecian and Meizhou Bay, The supply is tight again, and the support from the supply side is still there.

Industrial chain: raw materials: methanol: in October, the methanol market first experienced a significant decline, and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the overall market showed a shock and high state under the support of downstream and traders’ replenishment, and the early inventory details of some regions decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term.

Calcium carbide: this month, the calcium carbide production enterprises have normal devices, stable output, flexible market transaction price, and increased downstream arrival volume. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will be subject to short-term shocks

On the downstream side, the overall commencement of the downstream has not been significantly improved, the demand side is weak, just need to make up positions, but the bargaining power is not strong, small single negotiation price is higher than high-end.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in October 2019, there were 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 8 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (25.36%), epichlorohydrin (25.33%) and sulfur (19.54%). There are 56 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 29 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 34.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 30.41%), butadiene (- 19.30%) and acetic acid (- 18.84%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.82%.

III. future forecast

Generally speaking, the cost support is limited. However, the recent maintenance good news continues to enter the market, and the supply of goods is still in a state of tension. The factory is bound to continue its intention to support the market and report a small increase in inventory. However, it is constrained by the downstream demand. BDO analysts of the business agency predict that although the BDO market has a rising trend in the short term, the increase should be around 100 yuan / ton. Specifically, we need to pay attention to the restart of Tianye devices Condition.

I. price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone remained stable this week. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7900 yuan / ton, down 12.71% month on month and 39.23% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7600-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The market of cyclohexanone in South China is weak, and the negotiation is delivered with reference to 8050-8150 yuan / ton. The buying intention tends to be lower than the low-end. The seller ships with the market. The atmosphere is relatively weak, and the merchants are optimistic. The market of cyclohexanone in East China was sorted out in a weak atmosphere. The negotiation reference was 8000-8100 yuan / ton. A few of the sales were slightly higher. The weak upstream operation lacked effective support for the market, and the rigid downstream procurement was the main demand.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in December, the seller intends to pay 623 US dollars / ton fob in Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market is sorted out, and the negotiation reference is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Part of the buying intention is slightly low, the optimistic attitude is insufficient, and the external market shock lacks support for domestic trade.

Caprolactam: the weak market of US $caprolactam is lower, the quotation of merchants is lower, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is light, there are not many actual orders in the market, and the mainstream negotiation reference is 1330-1350 US dollars / ton. The caprolactam liquid market is weak, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market is 11400-11500 yuan / ton (6 months’ acceptance delivery), stable. Caprolactam business offer is temporarily stable, the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream just need to buy mainly, the market trading atmosphere is light.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market is weak and volatile, the weak atmosphere in the market is diffuse, the downstream demand is sluggish and hard to change, the inquiry continues to be light, the mentality of traders is short, the initial inventory is sold at a low price, and it is expected that the adipic acid market will be narrowed in the future.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, rigid demand is relatively stable. On the negative side, the demand is insufficient; the market of downstream products is low; the price of pure benzene is declining. According to the analysis of cyclohexanone by the business society, the upstream and downstream short-term performance is weak, lack of effective support for the market, low prices of enterprises, and weak short-term consolidation of the domestic market of cyclohexanone.

I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market at the beginning of this week was 12625 yuan / ton, while the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market at the weekend was 12525 yuan / ton, down 0.79% in the week, 4.02% in the same period last month, and 5.59% in the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic aggregate MDI market weak finishing. North China and East China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-12000 yuan / ton, South China Wanhua cargo negotiation is 12500-12700 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo negotiation is 11700-12000 yuan / ton. The supply side new moon policy has been introduced one after another to keep less volume on the market, but the downstream demand is weak, and most of the operators are lack of confidence in the future market.

In terms of market, as of Friday (11.1), the MDI market of polymerization in North China and Shandong was in a stalemate. Suppliers are listed in new moon to maintain stability, and some enterprises continue to reduce supply. However, downstream demand is weak, the mentality of middlemen is poor, the market spot is still tight at the beginning of the month, and most of the enterprises keep stable shipment. East China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. Suppliers’ information has been released one after another, enterprises have been shipping at a stable price, and downstream small orders have entered the market on demand. Market trading is not smooth, and some operators are under pressure of post market mentality, mainly shipping. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation. The suppliers’ information has been announced one after another, and the market is still strictly controlled, the downstream demand is weak, the market is not smooth in terms of firm offer and trading, the operators are lack of confidence in the future market, and the delivery is the main thing.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in December, the seller intends to pay 623 US dollars / ton fob in Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: weak situation of East China pure benzene market is sorted out, and the negotiation reference is 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of far month goods is 5000-5050 yuan / ton. Part of the buying intention is slightly low, the optimistic attitude is insufficient, and the external market shock lacks support for domestic trade.

Aniline: in the week, the focus of domestic aniline Market remained stable, East China enterprises had limited market volume, downstream procurement on demand, general market trading atmosphere, loose prices of raw materials, lack of confidence in the future market, and enterprises kept stable shipment.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregate MDI market range consolidation, low-end transactions.