So far this year, U.S. refineries have cut crude oil processing by nearly 100 million barrels, mainly to cope with weak domestic and foreign demand, according to hydrocarbon processing network on November 22.

So far this year, crude oil processing has declined for the first time since the 2008 / 09 recession, according to the EIA.

So far, the crude oil processing capacity of U.S. refineries in 2019 is 16.61 million barrels / day, down from 16.91 million barrels in the same period in 2018.

The decline in crude oil processing is partly due to the closure of a 335000 barrels per day refinery in Philadelphia, on the east coast of the United States, following an explosion and fire on June 21.

This year, crude oil processing on the east coast of the United States dropped 138000 barrels (13%), and crude oil processing in the Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast dropped 147000 barrels (1.6%) and 54000 barrels (2.2%) respectively.

Compared with 2018, the processing volume nationwide in the United States decreased by 1.8%, with refineries on the east coast accounting for less than half of the total decline.

Refiners have cut crude oil production in response to falling demand for oil products to avoid overstocked excess inventory and lower margins.

In the eight months from January to August, U.S. refined oil consumption fell 1.0%, with gasoline down 0.5% and distillates down 1.2%.

From January to August this year, the total consumption of refined oil including imports fell 44 million barrels compared with the same period last year, the first decline since 2012.

In the first eight months of this year, U.S. refined oil exports also fell 30 million barrels, the biggest decline in more than two decades, reflecting weak demand for gasoline, residual fuel oil and petroleum coke abroad.

By limiting crude oil processing, U.S. refineries avoided gasoline and diesel surpluses, but created greater surpluses in the crude oil market, thereby supporting refining profits.

Influenced by the news that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may extend the production reduction agreement, the international oil price once rose to the highest level in two months in a week, and then fell slightly.

OPEC and its partners may extend the agreement on production reduction of crude oil, which expires at the end of March next year, to June 2020, the media quoted anonymous OPEC officials as saying Monday. Although it seems unlikely to increase production reduction now, OPEC and its partners may send a message to the market to strengthen the implementation of the production reduction agreement.

The news stimulated the rise of international oil prices. On September 21, light crude oil futures in New York closed at their highest level since September 17, while Brent crude oil futures in London rose to their highest level since September 3.

According to the report released by JBC energy of Austria, it is not fundamentally surprising that OPEC anonymous said that the existing production reduction agreement may be extended to June next year. Given OPEC’s repeated willingness to balance the market, existing expectations already take into account OPEC’s agreement with its partners to cut production until the end of 2020.

Phil Flynn, a price futures group, said the market continues to underestimate oil demand. “In fact, oil demand is not only strong, but also this quarter’s growth is better than the previous quarter. With the implementation of multi-national economic stimulus measures and OPEC’s indication that it will extend the production reduction agreement, the whole oil supply system may be under supplied. ” He said.

JBC energy expects that the growth rate of global oil demand in the first three quarters of this year is only 460000b / D, which may be further reduced after relevant data from Canada and the United States are released. However, due to the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth of global oil demand in the fourth quarter is still expected to reach 1.2 million barrels / day.

In addition, the new IMO fuel oil regulations for ships have resulted in insufficient supply of diesel oil.

According to the data released by oilfield service company this week, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 671, down 3 on a month on month basis, down 214 on a year-on-year basis; meanwhile, the number of active oil rigs in Canada was 86, down 2 on a month on month basis and 38 on a year-on-year basis.

US strategic crude oil reserves last week fell 1.972 million barrels from a month earlier, the biggest decline in seven consecutive weeks, according to the US energy information administration. Market participants expect crude oil demand to remain at a high level as the year-end shopping season arrives.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on November 22, the average price quoted by pet level manufacturers was 6425.00 yuan / ton. This week, PET was running smoothly..

II. Cause analysis

Products: the manufacturer actively ships, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the downstream just needs to purchase, the demand is limited. Pet market is stable and warm.

On November 22, pet commodity index was 48.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.44% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.19% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

III. future forecast

Pet analysts believe that pet market is expected to run smoothly in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, since October, the price of domestic caprolactam market has fallen all the way, with the price down 11.64%. In the near future, the downward trend will continue. Up to now, the average price of domestic caprolactam market on November 22 is 11200 / ton, and the commodity index of caprolactam is 56.00, which is the same as that of yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 44.00% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

II. Market analysis

Product: caprolactam has continued its decline since November. At present, caprolactam is in deficit, and manufacturers are reducing production and burden. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11600 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11400 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 12300 yuan / ton, contract order, 280000 tons / year normal operation of the device.

Industry chain: the price of pure benzene fell this month, and domestic bearish sentiment increased. East China’s pure benzene market negotiation went higher, some offers were slightly higher, port inventory remained low, the external price of pure benzene continued to rise and boost, low price supply was hard to find in the downstream, and the short-term market was strong. China’s cyclohexanone market plunged sharply, and the intention to make up the position of terminal demand was low, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see, and the trading volume of chemical fiber single and solvent single in the market was small. Due to the pressure of inventory and delivery, the mainstream factories keep reducing their quotations. This month, the domestic PA6 market fell. In the near future, the spot supply of PA6 in China is expanding, the performance of downstream industry is declining, and the demand is weak. PA6 may continue to be light in the near future

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%) This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of the business club think: the supply of upstream raw materials increased, and the cost support weakened. Downstream procurement caution. Although the output has declined, there are many stocks in the market at present, the market supply exceeds the demand, and the terminal demand is insufficient. Due to the increase of market bearish factors, it is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to fall in the later period.

According to the Moscow Times on November 20, a source said that Russia is unlikely to agree to further cut oil production at a meeting with other oil exporting countries next month, but may commit to extend the existing production reduction agreement to support Saudi Arabia.

On December 5, OPEC will hold a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, followed by talks with other oil exporting countries, including Russia.

Also on December 5, Saudi Arabia will announce the public offering pricing of its energy company, Saudi Aramco, which it hopes will be the world’s largest initial public offering, and the oil price on that day may be crucial to the pricing of the offering.

OPEC and its allies are worried about weak growth in oil demand in 2020, the source told Reuters. Russia set the tone for the December talks last week, saying Saudi Arabia’s position before the talks was “tough,” the Moscow Times reported on November 20.

Moscow says it’s hard to cut oil production in the cold winter, especially in western Siberia, where two-thirds of Russia’s oil comes from and most of its rigs are located.

Experts say there could be an explosion if the well stops working under freezing conditions. However, at extremely low temperatures of minus 50 degrees Celsius, it may lead to involuntary production reduction.

“It’s hard to predict how much the December talks will go on,” said one person familiar with the matter. Russia will definitely not agree to (further) production reduction in winter. ” The oil ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

However, there is still the possibility of “surprise”. In the latest round of negotiations, OPEC, Russia and some other large oil producing countries have agreed to cut their daily oil production by 1.2 million barrels from January 1, 2020. The agreement will last until the end of March. “Formal negotiations have not yet begun, and the results may be reversed,” the source said. Although Russia cannot cut more oil production in winter, accidents are always possible. ”

Russia’s oil production increased to 11.25 million barrels a day in November, failing to meet its production quota target. According to Reuters calculations, combined with agreements with OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries, Russia’s daily oil production should be controlled at around 11.17-11.18 million barrels.

Russia will start supplying natural gas to China next month, which will also increase the country’s condensate production.

Another industry source said Russian companies were seeking to increase production in 2020 to support the national budget.

Oil prices closed Thursday at their highest level in two months, according to Dow Jones, on the back of a report that OPEC and its allies could extend production cuts and renewed optimism about the current trade situation.

OPEC and its allies, including Russia, may agree to extend the crude oil cut agreement to mid-2020 when they meet next month, Reuters reported Thursday, citing OPEC sources. The existing production limit agreement will expire at the end of March 2020. OPEC and its allies will meet in Vienna on December 5 and 6.

WTI futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.57, or 2.8%, to $58.58 per barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark for January delivery on the European Intercontinental Exchange, rose $1.57, or 2.5%, to $63.97 per barrel.

According to Dow Jones market data, the benchmark crude oil contracts in both recent months rose for two consecutive trading days and reached the highest settlement price since September 23.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China rebounded and went up. As of November 21, the price of phthalic anhydride in o-phthalic acid process was 6287.5 yuan / ton. Since late September, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, and the recent price rebound has increased. With the temperature falling, the plasticizer industry has gradually entered the peak season of the industry, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is higher.

In recent years, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride market has rebounded, and the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China has increased slightly. The downstream factories maintain the rigid demand for purchasing, the factory inventory pressure is still there, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has increased slightly. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6000-6400 yuan / ton and 5700-5900 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are stable, the downstream construction is not high, the main flow is on-demand procurement, the wait-and-see state is relatively strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and some enterprises are on the market The price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly after the transfer out of the plant.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream products is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, and the market of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area has maintained a low level. In the near future, the market of phthalic anhydride in the port has declined, the stock in the port is low, and the external quotation of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The details are discussed by the upstream The price trend of phthalic anhydride market is limited.

The downstream DOP price increased slightly, the price of isooctanol increased, and the DOP cost increased. DOP price is fluctuating, downstream demand of DOP is normal, customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market is fluctuating and rising, high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, mainstream transaction price of DOP market slightly rises to 7300-7600 yuan / ton, downstream price trend is improved, but upstream ox price remains low, plasticizer gradually enters the industry peak season, downstream demand may be improved, phthalic anhydride analyst of business agency The market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly in the later period.

In recent years, some domestic rare earth prices rebounded and rose, but some market prices are still at a low level. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products is as follows:

Recently, the domestic market price of heavy rare earth rebounded. As of the 21st day, the price of dysprosium oxide rose by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.58 million yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy rose by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.58 million yuan / ton; some domestic market prices of light rare earth also rose, with the price of neodymium oxide rising by 1000 yuan / ton to 282000 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy rose by 1000 yuan / ton to 358500 yuan / ton; and the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 1000 yuan / ton The price of goods increased by 1000 yuan / ton to 280000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth rebounded higher, and the market price of light rare earth stopped falling. Affected by the favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has improved.

On November 21, the rare earth index was 333 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 66.70% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 22.88% from the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of rare earth has stopped falling and stabilized, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market has rebounded and increased, the supply policy of domestic heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth has improved, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth has rebounded and increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products has stopped falling, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.

In September, in just three months, the domestic caustic soda market has experienced great ups and downs, and now it is back to the origin. According to the inspection of business agency, the factory price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was 700 yuan / ton at the beginning of September, and the price rose to 850 yuan / ton at the end of September, an increase of more than 20%. The market offer price was higher, an increase of nearly 30%. So far, the factory price of caustic soda in Shandong Province has dropped to 680 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 20%. Only from the perspective of the manufacturer’s supply, the drop is not enough to reflect the current market decline. At present, the market low price supply appears frequently, and the actual transaction price is constantly low.

The reasons for the sharp decline in the price of caustic soda are as follows:

First of all, from the supply side, the chlor alkali plant has started normally. Although Dongying and Xinpu in Jiangsu Province have been overhauled this month, they can not support the market well. According to the relevant data, the caustic soda production in October 2019 was 2.84 million tons, and the factory overhaul in November was significantly lower than that in October, so the production will increase again, and the supply presents a serious situation of excess.

Secondly, on the demand side, with the arrival of winter heating peak staggering production in the north, alumina production in the downstream main alkali consuming industries is limited, and the start-up is reduced, and the demand for caustic soda is reduced again. At the same time, affected by the environmental protection, other downstream industries such as papermaking, textile, chemical fiber and so on have been weak, which is difficult to play a positive role in supporting the caustic soda market. On the 20th of this month, Weiqiao, Shandong Province lowered the purchase price of liquid alkali by 30 yuan / ton, 620 yuan / ton. This is the fourth time that the alumina enterprise lowered the purchase price of liquid alkali this month, which has a negative impact on the market. In the near future, the price of liquid alkali has been falling continuously, gradually approaching the cost line. Enterprises need to rely on liquid chlorine to adjust their profit space, which is also the main reason why chlor alkali enterprises have no negative production intention in the case of continuous falling price of liquid alkali.

Thirdly, the unit of flake caustic soda enterprise started normally, and with the completion of maintenance of Zhongtai and Tianye in Xinjiang, the social inventory also increased correspondingly. Because of frequent price fluctuations of flake caustic soda, some traders did not send out the high price goods in the early stage, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Currently, the northwest is in snowy weather, the transportation is blocked, and the enterprise’s shipment and storage pressure.

To sum up, the prominent contradiction between supply and demand is the main reason for the sharp decline of the caustic soda market. At present, the domestic caustic soda market has no obvious good support, and affected by the environmental protection, downstream enterprises are limited to start work, the demand is reduced again, the market has been in the situation of oversupply, after the forecast, the market is still mostly weak, and it is difficult to recover in the short term, but at present, the caustic soda Enterprises There is a slight loss at the cost boundary, and it may not be big to continue the downward trend. It is expected that after this round of decline, the next possibility will be to expect to store goods before the Spring Festival.

I. trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price slightly declined and quoted 47208.33 yuan / ton, 0.51% higher than the previous day, 1.98% lower than the beginning of the year, and 5.3% lower than the previous year.

II. Market analysis

Recently, copper prices fluctuated in a narrow range. Last week, the total inventory of bonded and futures exchanges decreased by nearly 30000 tons, indicating that the downstream consumption was stable. In October, China’s refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 868000 tons, up 17.9% year on year; from January to October, the total refined copper output was 7831000 tons, up 8.1% year on year. In addition, in November, the operating rates of copper tube, copper rod and other enterprises decreased slightly compared with that in October. Due to the environmental limitation, production in North China was limited from time to time, and consumption has gradually turned to the off-season. However, with the sharp decrease of waste copper import in November and the shortage of waste copper, the replacement of waste copper by electric copper increased, offsetting the increase of refined copper output and the impact of off-season consumption, and the inventory rate remained slightly lower in the year. Copper market supply support is expected to continue due to copper mine disruption.

III. future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business agency think that: supply and demand are weak, low inventory support, and copper price is expected to maintain a narrow range of shocks in the short term.