According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average spot price of domestic gold on 28th was 330.30 yuan / g, 3.79% lower than that on 1st day, 343.30 yuan / g; 358.55 yuan / g, 7.88% lower than the annual peak (September 4); 284.10 yuan / g, 16.26% higher than that at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

On the 28th, the spot price of silver in China was 4096 yuan / kg, down 6.21% compared with the spot price of silver on the 1st, 4367 yuan / kg; on the 4th of September, the spot price of silver was 4771 yuan / kg, down 14.15%; and on the 1st of the year, 3617.67 yuan / kg, up 13.22%.

 

Early release of monetary easing expectation

 

The market gave feedback on the Fed’s October interest rate resolution in advance. The federal funds rate was cut by 25 basis points to 1.50% – 1.75%, basically in line with market expectations.

 

In addition to the Fed’s interest rate cut, the following are the loose policies:

 

Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%, the third rate cut in the year.

 

The Saudi central bank cut the repo rate from 250bps to 225bps and the reverse repo rate from 200bps to 175bps.

 

The Bank of Bahrain cut the overnight deposit rate from 2.25% to 2%, and the Bank of Bahrain cut the one month deposit rate from 2.85% to 2.6%.

 

In addition, the central banks of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have also cut interest rates.

 

The wave of monetary easing at the end of October did not become the main factor affecting the precious metal market.

 

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of precious metal gold was basically stable in October, with a slight decrease of 0.77% in the month, and the spot price of precious metal silver rose by 1.92%.

 

Amplification of factors influencing the negotiation process of major trading countries on precious metals

 

With the reversal of market expectations for the trade negotiation process of major trading countries, the gradient of risk aversion slowed down. While there is still uncertainty about the future, optimism prevailed in November.

 

Potassium monopersulfate

On the morning of November 26, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and China’s leader of the China US comprehensive economic dialogue, spoke with us trade representative lait Heze and finance minister mu nuqin. The two sides discussed the resolution of each other’s core concerns, reached consensus on the resolution of relevant issues, and agreed to maintain communication on the remaining issues of the first phase of the agreement and consultation. The first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States is expected.

 

As the influence of risk factors weakens, the demand for precious metals to avoid risks is hardly favored by the market.

 

Physical demand moves down in the third quarter

 

According to the data of the world gold association, the global demand for gold ornaments fell by 16% year-on-year in the third quarter to 460.9 tons, and the investment demand for gold coins and bars halved.

 

In the third quarter, the domestic demand for gold ornaments fell 12% to 156.3 tons year on year, the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline, 10% lower than the single quarter average of 173.5 tons in the past five years. China’s demand for gold bars and coins fell 51% to 42.8 tons, the lowest level in three years.

 

The growth of gold reserves of major central banks slowed down year on year in the third quarter

 

According to the world gold association, the gold reserves of the world’s major central banks increased 156.2 tons in the third quarter. Growth slowed 38% compared with the same period last year. (Note: the third quarter of 2018 is the highest quarter for central banks in the world since we have recorded.)

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

China’s gold reserves at the end of October were 62.64 million ounces, compared with 62.64 million ounces in September, the State Administration of foreign exchange said Thursday.

 

Although the growth slowed down year on year, the trend of increasing gold holdings by major central banks around the world remained unchanged. It is reported that in the first three quarters of 2019, the world’s major central banks bought 547.5 tons of gold, up 12% year on year. Increasing the number of central banks, such as Hungary, Poland and Serbia.

 

Long empty game in December

 

Long argument:

 

1. Gold has a monetary attribute. Central banks have frequent loose policies, and interest rate cuts support precious metal prices.

 

As recently reported, ASB Bank expects the New Zealand Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once instead of twice in 2020. The overall direction is still to cut interest rates. (in August 2019, the New Zealand Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, currently, the official interest rate of the New Zealand Federal Reserve is 1%)

 

Game arguments:

 

1. It is uncertain whether the new tariffs on US $156 billion worth of Chinese goods will be cancelled or delayed since they came into effect on December 15, especially the frequent port related operations of the United States in the near future.

 

2. The UK will hold a general election on December 12, which will affect the process of brexit. There are large uncertainties, which may increase the demand for hedging.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China continued to decline slightly. As of November 28, the average price was 4800 yuan / ton, down 0.80% compared with the previous trading day, down 23.52% year on year. In the futures market, the main futures of PTA fell in shock, and ended at 4726 yuan / ton (2001), down 44 yuan / ton, or 0.92% compared with the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 376000 to 1255700 and positions decreased by 14312 to 140900. After the buyback of suppliers, another 1.1 million tons of Dushan energy line was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, the downstream purchases are cautious and there is a weakening expectation. The spot market lacks clear good news support, and prices continue to decline.

 

EDTA 2Na

Changes of PTA plants in China in November

 

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Jialong Petrochemical 60 was shut down for maintenance on August 2, and the restart was to be determined

Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 150 shut down on November 12 as scheduled, and planned to maintain for 2 weeks

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

Ningbo Taizhou Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped for a short time on November 13 and resumed normal production

Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on November 13, 70. At present, the unit has been heated up and restarted, and now it has been discharged

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced load by 90% at 220

Chuanneng chemical 100 fault stopped short on November 1, and the current load is 80%

Yisheng Hainan 200 has been gradually warmed up and restarted. The device was shut down for maintenance on November 22

EDTA

In terms of cost, on November 27, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 777 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 797 US dollars / ton CFR China, which formed a certain support for PTA. Near the end of the month, the downstream polyester market has a strong wait-and-see mood. The prices of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are flat, among which the polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 6900.00-7250.00 yuan / ton. DTY (150D / 48F low bomb) is at 8500.00-8750.00 yuan / ton, and FDY (150D / 96F) is at 6950.00-7250.00 yuan / ton. At present, the new orders of the terminal weaving factory are relatively common, the pressure of weaving finished products inventory is still there, and the raw material market support is limited. Under the multiple negative drag, the downstream and terminal factories have taken the measures of reducing the load and avoiding the risk while maintaining the rigid demand for replenishment. At the same time, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rebounded after the National Day holiday, and the market confidence was insufficient, so the purchasing was cautious.

 

Xia Ting, an analyst with the business society, believes that the PTA plant will be put into production intensively at present, the supply will gradually accumulate, and the downstream polyester plant is expected to reduce production, especially the polyester plant has a large area maintenance plan from late December to January. In the absence of new orders from terminal textile factories, there is a possibility of further decline in the opening rate of weaving factories in the later period, with negative factors looming, and PTA market is expected to continue to be weak. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the nodes of centralized replenishment of downstream and terminal factories before the festival.

Melamine

Production of soda ash

 

Production capacity and output of soda ash in China. In the early 1990s, China ended its long-term dependence on imports and gradually became a net exporter of soda ash. Since 2003, China’s soda ash production capacity and output ranked first in the world, reaching a historical high in 2014. As of 2018, China’s soda production capacity is 31.15 million tons, and the output is 26.21 million tons.

 

Capacity and output of light and dense soda ash. In 2018, China’s light soda ash output is 13.25 million tons and the dense output is 12.96 million tons. From 2007 to 2018, the proportion of heavy alkali production increased from 30% to 49%, and the growth rate of heavy alkali production was also much higher than that of light alkali.

 

Production capacity of soda ash with different production processes. As of 2018, there are 44 soda ash manufacturers in China. Among them, there are 29 enterprises using the combined alkali process, most of which have production capacity less than 1 million tons, mainly distributed in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Chongqing. There are 12 enterprises adopting ammonia alkali process, most of which have production capacity higher than 1 million tons, mainly distributed in Qinghai, Jiangsu and Shandong. There are only three enterprises using natural alkali method, two of which are located in Henan and one in Inner Mongolia.

 

Distribution of soda production capacity. China’s soda ash production is mainly concentrated in East China, central China and Northwest China. The total production capacity of Jiangsu in East China is 5.5 million tons, accounting for 46%; Henan in Central China is 4.2 million tons, accounting for 66%; Qinghai in Northwest China is 4.3 million tons, accounting for 83%. In 2018, the utilization rate of national soda production capacity is 84%, and soda production units are distributed in 22 provinces (cities, autonomous regions). Henan and Qinghai rely on rich raw material resources and geographical advantages to continuously release new capacity.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

In 2018, the capacity of soda ash in Central China is 6.36 million tons, accounting for 20% of the total capacity of the country, including 4.2 million tons in Henan, accounting for 66% of the total capacity of central China and 13% of the total capacity of the country; the capacity of soda ash in Northwest China is 5.15 million tons, accounting for 17% of the total capacity of the country, including 4.3 million tons in Qinghai, accounting for 83% of the total capacity of the northwest region and 14% of the total capacity of the country. In addition, the production capacity of soda ash in North China, Southwest China, South China and Northeast China respectively accounts for 12%, 9%, 2% and 2% of the total production capacity of the country.

 

Concentration of soda industry. As of 2018, there are 44 soda ash manufacturers in China. There are 12 enterprises with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons or more, with a total production capacity of 17.6 million tons, accounting for 56% of the total production capacity; there are 13 enterprises with a production capacity of 500000-1 million tons, with a total production capacity of 8.35 million tons, accounting for 27%; there are 19 Enterprises with a production capacity of less than 500000 tons, with a total production capacity of 5.2 million tons, accounting for 17%.

 

The existing large-scale production groups in China’s soda industry mainly include Tangshan Sanyou, China’s salt industry, Jinshan Chemical Industry and Yuanxing energy, accounting for 10.91%, 8.44%, 6.42% and 5.78% of the total national production capacity, respectively, totaling over 31%.

 

Soda demand

 

Overall demand. China is the largest soda consumption country in the world. With the development of economy, the consumption of soda ash in China is increasing. In 2018, China’s total demand for soda ash was 25.12 million tons, a decrease of 660000 tons compared with 2017, an increase of 6.35 million tons compared with 2010, and a total increase of 34% in 8 years. Among them, the demand for heavy alkali is 13.47 million tons, an increase of 64% compared with that in 2010; the demand for light alkali is 11.65 million tons, an increase of 10% compared with that in 2010, and the contribution rate of the demand growth for heavy alkali to the total demand growth of soda ash is 83%. The demand for light alkali in the downstream is growing slowly. In 2018, the demand for light alkali in China was 11.65 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons compared with 2010.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Demand structure. In the application field of soda ash in China, 4% of soda ash is used in the food industry, belonging to the category of edible soda ash; 96% of soda ash is used as raw materials or auxiliary agents for industrial production, belonging to the category of industrial soda ash. Generally speaking, to produce 1 ton of flat glass requires 0.2 tons of heavy alkali, that is, a float glass production line with a daily melting capacity of 1000 tons consumes 200 tons of soda per day. In recent years, the demand for soda ash in the flat glass industry as a whole presents the characteristics of “V”. From 2013 to 2014, the demand for soda ash for flat glass has always remained above 11.6 million tons. In 2018, the consumption of heavy alkali in the glass industry was 13.03 million tons, up 9.9% month on month, and the demand remained at a high level in the past five years.

 

Import and export of soda ash

 

China is a net exporter of soda ash. In 2018, China exported 1379000 tons of soda ash, imported 294000 tons of soda ash, and exported 1085000 tons of soda ash. Compared with the total output and demand of domestic soda ash, the proportion of export and import is not high, which is only one of the adjustment ways of supply and demand balance of domestic soda market.

 

Since 2007, the annual export volume of soda ash in China is about 1.8 million tons, accounting for 8% of the domestic annual output. After 2009, the domestic demand for soda ash is stronger, the enterprise profit is maintained at a reasonable level, and the export volume of domestic soda ash falls down as a whole. Except for 2015, the export volume is less than 2 million tons, and the export volume in 2018 is 1.38 million tons.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on November 27, the spot price of nickel was 118316.67 yuan / ton, down 13.32% from 136500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 32.19% from the beginning of the year, up 24.98% year on year. Nickel prices fell continuously this month, and the main reason for the previous gains was that there was sufficient supply and light demand.

 

 

According to the current nickel schedule of the business association, the spot price of nickel in this month is higher than the main contract price, the main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that everyone is not so optimistic about nickel in the future.

 

Indonesia resume export

 

Potassium monopersulfate

In September, Indonesia’s nickel mine export rose rapidly, and China’s imports from Indonesia increased by 55.8% month on month. Indonesia’s nickel export data in October increased by a staggering 300% compared with the same period in 2018, further dampening sentiment in the nickel market. In November, Indonesian ports recovered some vessels seized during the preliminary grade inspection, but they were mainly used to deliver preliminary orders, and the market circulation spot resources were scarce. Indonesia announced on October 28 that it would suspend nickel ore export for illegal investigation. Indonesia said on October 11 that it had approved nine enterprises to restart nickel ore export.

 

In addition, from November to March every year is the traditional rainy season in the Philippines, during which the export volume of nickel ore is expected to decrease significantly. Nickel imports are expected to grow only modestly in November and December, although domestic refineries have been stocking up ahead of time and are in short-term short supply.

 

Nickel inventory recovery

 

According to the data, the domestic output of NPI in October was 52400 tons, a decrease of 0.64% on a month on month basis and an increase of 30.34% on a year-on-year basis. The overall increase of port nickel ore inventory is significant, and the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. In addition, the capacity of ferronickel at home and abroad continued to release, and the pressure of ferronickel supply gradually increased, dragging down the trend of nickel price.

 

Weak demand for stainless steel production increase

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

In October, the national stainless steel output was 2.406 million tons, a decrease of 2.67% on a month on month basis, an increase of 4.29% on a year-on-year basis; it is expected that the output in November will be 2.425 million tons, a slight increase of 0.79% on a month on month basis. Moreover, the stainless steel inventory is at a historical high level, and the pressure of de stocking in the later stage is large. The downstream stainless steel industry has entered into the traditional off-season of consumption. With the continuous decline of nickel price, the stainless steel market is also in a downturn, and the raw material inventory in the early stage is relatively sufficient. In addition, the overall capital and sales pressure are increasing near the end of the year, and the willingness of steel plants to purchase raw materials is poor, and the short-term downstream demand for nickel is difficult to improve significantly.

 

Xinneng automobile encounters Waterloo

 

In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 95000 and 75000 respectively, down 35.4% and 45.6% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 78000 and 59000, down 33.3% and 47.3% year-on-year respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 16000, down 44.3% and 38.7% year-on-year respectively. New energy vehicles encounter Waterloo, which reduces the consumption of three-way batteries and inhibits the demand for nickel.

 

To sum up: in the absence of substantial production reduction in stainless steel plants, it is difficult to change the status quo of high stainless steel inventory and weak market. Under the negative feedback of cold steel market and new energy vehicles, the overall short-term performance of nickel price is still weak. However, with the approaching of Indonesia’s mining ban period and the arrival of the traditional rainy season in the Philippines, the expected production reduction of domestic nickel iron plants is expected to increase, or the price of nickel is expected to increase Support.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 27, the domestic PTA spot market price continued to fall slightly, with the market average price at 4838 yuan / ton, down 0.62% compared with the previous trading day, down 22.04% year on year. The main futures market (2001) closed at 4746 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton or 0.84% compared with the previous trading day. Daily trading volume decreased by 302100 to 879700, and position increased by 13378 to 1415200.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

 Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Hainan Yisheng PTA plant have been heated up and restarted, and the operating rate has been raised to 95%. Dushan energy phase I 2.2 million tons PTA plant and another 1.1 million tons of lines have been put into operation successfully, PTA market maintained a downward trend under the influence of new supply pressure.

Enterprise name capacity device dynamics

Jialong Petrochemical 60 was shut down for maintenance on August 2, and the restart was to be determined

Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. 150 shut down on November 12 as scheduled, and planned to maintain for 2 weeks

Maintenance in December is planned for hailun Petrochemical 120

Ningbo Taizhou Chemical Co., Ltd. stopped for a short time on November 13 and resumed normal production

Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on November 13, 70. At present, the unit has been heated up and restarted, and now it has been discharged

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced load by 90% at 220

Chuanneng chemical 100 fault stopped short on November 1, and the current load is 80%

Yisheng Hainan 200 has been gradually warmed up and restarted. The device was shut down for maintenance on November 22

Melamine

In terms of cost, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by US $1 / ton, closing at US $771 / ton FOB South Korea and US $791 / ton CFR China. Downstream part of the mainstream polyester plant outgoing maintenance plan, so the demand side weakened. Polyester filament market fell steadily, with polyester POY (150D / 48F) cut by 50 yuan / ton to 6900.00-7250.00 yuan / ton in some mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. DTY (150D / 48F low bomb) is at 8500.00-8750.00 yuan / ton, FDY (150D / 96F) is at 6950.00-7250.00 yuan / ton, and the price is stable temporarily. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 74%. The terminal factory is currently in the process of making foreign Christmas orders. The orders are basically coming to an end. Some orders will be issued in spring and summer next year, but the order quantity is not large and the product delivery speed is average.

 

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that polyester maintenance will increase this week, especially from late December to January, when polyester devices have a large area of maintenance plan, and terminal textile enterprises will gradually reduce orders with the beginning of December, so it is expected that the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is expected to decline, and PTA demand will be affected. And affected by the current PTA new capacity suppression, overall, it is expected that the market will continue to weaken.

EDTA

Overall, the current US crude oil production has increased by 1.1 million barrels / day compared with the beginning of the year. From the perspective of the number of American oil rigs, it is another scene: at present, the number of active oil well rigs is 674, while the number of rigs at the beginning of the year is 877, with a decrease of 23% in the year. Why is there such a sharp contrast between US crude oil production and the number of rigs? When will US crude oil production peak?

 

According to EIA weekly data, as of November 8, US crude oil production reached another record high of 12.8 million barrels / day. Oil prices fell sharply after the EIA data was released, as investors worried that US crude oil production would take another step after the bottleneck of us pipeline capacity was eased, hedging OPEC’s production reduction.

 

From the perspective of shale oil production process, the producers first drill oil wells through drilling rigs, then complete wells and install acquisition equipment, and finally exploit shale oil. However, in the first month of new well exploitation, due to the backflow of hydraulic fracturing fluid, the flow of oil and gas is limited, and the production of new well is the largest since the second month, but after the third month, due to the attenuation effect of shale oil, the production begins to decline gradually.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Continuous production of new wells is the main source of shale oil production growth in the United States. Only when the production of new wells exceeds the attenuation of old wells, will the production of shale oil in the United States increase. According to the methodology of EIA drilling rig report, we can analyze the shale oil production of new wells from the current number of active drilling rigs and the production efficiency of single drilling rig, while the attenuation of old wells can be estimated by referring to the attenuation data of EIA drilling rig report and the attenuation curve of shale oil.

 

According to the number of drilling rigs released by Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States has continued to decline since the beginning of 2019, but in addition to the number of drilling rigs, the production efficiency of drilling rigs is also an important factor affecting shale oil production, mainly because when the number of drilling rigs drops, producers tend to improve production efficiency to stabilize crude oil production.

 

What is rig productivity? In fact, it refers to the shale oil production corresponding to a single drilling machine. We can study this index separately by dividing it into three items: monthly average drilling number of a single drilling machine, well completion rate and shale oil production of a single well. The average monthly drilling number and single well production of the drilling rig basically have little change. The main factor driving the recent increase of drilling rig efficiency is the substantial increase of well completion rate. According to EIA data, the current completion rate is about 1.17, which means that the current completion number exceeds the drilling number, that is, the production of Duc well begins to release continuously.

 

However, the number of Duc wells is limited after all, and due to the attenuation effect of the oil field, the incremental effect of the production release of Duc wells on the later shale oil will gradually decrease. If we refer to the release of Duc wells in 2016, the monthly release of Duc wells is about 100, but considering that the current inventory of Duc wells is far higher than that in 2016, it is estimated that the current release rate of Duc wells is higher than that in 2016, we estimate the contribution of the release rate of Duc wells in 100 / month, 150 / month and 200 / month to the new production of shale oil in the later period, and we can get the fourth quarter page of 2019 The increment of shale oil is between 65000-75000 barrels / day and 24000-67000 barrels / day in the first quarter of 2020, with obvious attenuation effect.

 

Sodium Molybdate

In addition, from the perspective of the decrement of the old oil field, although the absolute value is still increasing, the growth rate is gradually slowing down. According to the ratio of the decrement of the current period to the efficiency of the drilling rig, we can estimate the number of drilling rigs needed to maintain the current production. At present, the number of active rigs is still higher than the number of rigs needed to maintain the current production, indicating that the new production of new wells is higher than the decrement of old wells. Therefore, although the current growth rate of crude oil production in the United States slows down, it still keeps a positive growth, which is the fundamental reason why the number of rigs and the crude oil production in the United States are reversed this year.

 

In the later stage, if the current rig efficiency is assumed to remain unchanged and the decline rate of the number of rigs is maintained at the average decline rate of about 25 sets / month this year, it is expected that the number of rigs in December will fall below the minimum number of rigs required to maintain production. However, considering the gradual improvement of drilling rig efficiency (mainly the impact of the release of Duc wells on production), and assuming the release rate of Duc wells is 150 wells / month, shale oil production in December still has room for growth, and the time when shale oil production in the United States begins to decline is expected to be postponed to January February 2020, which will form a certain support for oil prices.

 

In addition to the increase of crude oil supply in the United States, non-U.S. supply and demand expectations also have a greater impact on oil prices. The main factors supporting the upward trend of oil prices are the favorable trade negotiations in the near future and the improvement of the macro environment for U.S. stocks to innovate again. In addition, the December OPEC ministerial meeting will also be the key variable to determine the later crude oil supply, but the current situation is not clear. On the one hand, Saudi Aramco is going to be listed, and Saudi Arabia has the power to further reduce production to improve the oil price and the valuation of Aramco; on the other hand, the growth rate of US crude oil production slows down and the international trade situation improves or reduces the probability of OPEC further reducing production. Under the influence of favorable factors such as unsustainable growth of crude oil production in the United States, marginal improvement of macro environment, and geopolitical risks, there is no basis for a sharp drop in oil prices. However, it is still necessary to pay more attention to the OPEC production reduction meeting in December.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

On November 26, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 136.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.88% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 90.91% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in November, hydrogen peroxide entered the cold winter, and the price continued to fall sharply, down more than 14%. At the beginning of the month, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 1466 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 1260 yuan / ton, down 14.09%.

 

Potassium monopersulfate

market analysis

 

In November, the terminal performance was poor and the demand was low. The price of hydrogen peroxide continued to drop. After the first week’s sharp drop, the decline trend became stable and slowed down. It was still difficult to hide the decline. As of the 26th, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 1260 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price fell more than 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

 

Shandong Province: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1160 yuan / ton; Shandong Haineng 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1320 yuan / ton; the price is 200 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the month.

 

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1300 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month.

 

Anhui Province: Anhui Jinhe 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1500 yuan / ton; the actual transaction price is about 1300 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1300 yuan / ton, the price drops 200 yuan / ton.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Hunan: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 1300 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that at the beginning of the month.

 

Zhejiang Province: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price of 1500 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the month.

 
Industry chain: since November, caprolactam has continued the decline of last month. The market of raw material cyclohexanone plunged, the market of terminal PA6 weakened, caprolactam lost money, the manufacturer reduced production and reduced load, and the price continued to decline. Since October, the price of caprolactam fell for two months in a row, and the price fell by more than 11%. As a result, the manufacturers are cautious in purchasing hydrogen peroxide, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is excessive, and the price keeps falling and rising. In some regions, the firm prices of manufacturers are relatively heavy, the prices are weak and stable, and the prices in Shandong, Anhui and Hebei have declined significantly.

 

Outlook for the future

 

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business club believe that: from November, when the cold winter of hydrogen peroxide comes, the demand is not good, and the negative air depresses. In the short term, the price of hydrogen peroxide is weak, and narrow range consolidation is the main thing.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

I. trend analysis

 

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the cobalt market rose tentatively last week, after which the cobalt price was underpowered and fell in shock. As of November 22, the price of cobalt was 267500.00 yuan / ton, up 0.75% from the average price of 265500.00 yuan / ton on November 18; as of November 25, the price of cobalt was 265333.34 yuan / ton, down 0.06% from November 18. Last week, the cobalt market recovered to the pre rising level after a tentative rise.

 

EDTA 2Na

II. Market analysis

 

MB market cobalt price

Time, category, specification, lowest price, up and down, highest price, up and down unit

11.22 standard cobalt 16.15-0.35 17.15-0.35 USD / lb

11.22 alloy cobalt 16.75-0.05 17.50 USD / lb

11.20 standard cobalt 16.5-0.3 17.50 USD / lb

11.20 alloy cobalt 16.8-0.4 17.5-0.2 USD / lb

11.15 standard cobalt 16.8-0.2 17.5-0.2 USD / lb

11.15 alloy cobalt 17.2-0.1 17.7-0.1 USD / lb

11.13 standard cobalt 17-0.2 17.7-0.1 USD / lb

11.13 alloy cobalt 17.3-0.3 17.8-0.3 USD / lb

© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com

 

It can be seen from the table that in the near future, MB quotation fell slightly in shock, but the decline of cobalt price remained at around 0.2-0.3 for adjustment, and the international market cobalt price fell slightly in shock, which was negative for the cobalt market. Negative for domestic cobalt market, increasing downward pressure on cobalt market.

 

LME market March future cobalt price

 

It can be seen from the figure that in the past month, the cobalt price of LME futures fell in March, and the international market cobalt price fell, which created a negative impact on the domestic cobalt Market and increased the downward pressure on the cobalt market.

 

Melamine

III. future prospects

 

Baijiaxin, data analyst of business agency, believes that last week, domestic cobalt market was affected by policies and Tesla’s production, resulting in a short-term rise in cobalt price, but the overall supply and demand of cobalt market has not been improved, the cobalt market is still in oversupply, and the momentum for the rise of cobalt market is insufficient. Last week, the international cobalt market reacted coldly, and the international cobalt price fell sharply, which poured cold water on the domestic cobalt Market with little upward momentum. After a small increase, the domestic cobalt price quickly fell back to the pre rising cobalt price, and there is still some downward pressure on the cobalt Market in the short term. Generally speaking, cobalt price is expected to fluctuate and fall slightly in the short term. In the long term, cobalt market is still optimistic, and cobalt price is still favorable in the long term. December may be the turning point of cobalt price.

EDTA

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: as of November 26, according to the data of several sample quotation enterprises, the main quotation price of the n-propanol domestic trade market is about 10800 yuan / ton, which is generally stable compared with the beginning of the week.

 

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II. Market analysis

 

Products: since last week, the market sales of n-propanol has been relatively stable. The overall market has been mainly shaken and consolidated, with little fluctuation. After a small fluctuation, the market continues to operate stably. People in the market mainly wait and see, and the cost surface can still be supported. The downstream demand of n-propanol is general, and the domestic production capacity basically reaches the supply and demand. At the beginning of last week (November 18), the quotation of some dealers in the domestic n-propanol market was slightly reduced, with a decrease range of around 100-200 yuan / ton. In the middle of last week (November 20), the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers was revised back. After the correction, the price was stable to November 25, and on November 26, some dealers and traders again slightly revised back their quotation, with an increase range of around 140 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation is The manufacturer of propanol, Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., has a stable quotation of 9100 yuan / ton (including tax for bulk water); the quotation of domestic dealers of propanol is around 10100-10800 yuan / ton. Compared with November 18 of the beginning of the week, the overall price is basically flat at the beginning of the week at the end of the week, including 10800 yuan / ton for Shandong Weiming chemical, 10800 yuan / ton for Dalian barrel in Taiwan The price is 11000-11600 yuan / ton, including 11800 yuan / ton of n-propanol quoted by Shanghai Lianyi Chemical Co., Ltd. imported from Dalian, Taiwan (specification: 165kg); due to dealers and traders’ reservation on the price, the price of the commodity is not easy to monitor, and the specific price is negotiated in a single document. In addition, the prices in each region are also different, so the price is only for reference.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Industry chain: since last week, ethylene has declined as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices fell, as of the end of last week, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $807-815 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $808-814 / ton. Prices in the European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the end of last week, the price in the European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $905-908 / ton, and CIF, northwest Europe closed at $810-821 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the week, the price was US $484-496 / ton. Overall, the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to the prediction of the business agency: it is expected that the domestic n-propanol market will run smoothly in the near future, the overall demand of the market will remain stable, and the market will not fluctuate too much in the off-season.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

I. overall trend

 

This week (11.18-11.22) polyethylene showed a weak downward trend, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business agency was about 8175 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7983.33 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7350 yuan / ton. As of November 22, the price trend of LLDPE in East China has stabilized this week, and the price of LDPE and HDPE has declined in a narrow range this week.

 

This week, the PE market (East China) fell 50-100 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the linear futures rose in shock, and the international oil price rebounded after falling, which played a certain role in supporting the market. However, over the past weekend, petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, increased supply pressure, continuously lowered prices, weakened market cost support, accompanied by shipping businesses, continued to purchase just in need downstream, and the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively light. In the later part of the week, with the continuous decline of petrochemical inventory, the pressure of market supply eased, and the rise of linear futures boosted, the market atmosphere of PE in the whole country improved slightly, the prices of major regional sales companies were basically stable, and many merchants actively reported high prices. At present, the downstream temporarily maintained on-demand orders, and the market growth still needs to be digested.

 

II. Market analysis

 

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Upstream: after the fall of international oil price this week, the price of crude oil continues to rise, and the cost of oil-based polyethylene will increase. On Monday (November 18), WTI crude oil December futures settled at $57.05 a barrel, down $0.67/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.55-58.09; Brent crude oil January futures settled at $62.44 a barrel, down $0.86/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94-63.57. On Friday (November 22), WTI crude oil futures settled at $57.77 per barrel in January 2020, down $0.81/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.50-58.74/barrel; Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.39 per barrel in January 2020, down $0.58/barrel from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.98-64.27/barrel.

 

Manufacturer’s trends: the inventory of downstream PE film manufacturers is low this week. Due to the limitation of terminal demand, the enthusiasm of manufacturers to enter the market is weak. For the time being, orders are received on demand, and the transaction is weak. Some areas are still under the influence of strict environmental inspection, the orders of enterprises are reduced, and the production is limited.

 

Futures trend: this week’s Liansu trend fluctuated upward. According to the monitoring of business club, on November 22, the opening price of main contracts of polyethylene futures l2001 was 7195, the highest price was 7240, the lowest price was 7155, the closing price was 7170, the former settlement price was 7130, the settlement price was 7195, up 40, up 0.56%, the volume was 390870, the position was 471228, and the daily position was increased by – 36612. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.

 

III. future forecast

 

Looking forward to the future, business analysts believe that the current international oil price continues to rebound, which has a certain boost to the market. Linear futures rose slightly, spot market inquiries increased, and the market atmosphere improved. Petrochemical inventory continues to fall, and some plants are still in maintenance state, to some extent, to ease the supply pressure. However, the factory price of petrochemicals has been reduced, which weakens the market cost support. It is expected that the market may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

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