On October 30, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 30th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 29, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures fell to $55.54 per barrel on October 29, down $0.27, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.59 per barrel, up $0.02. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its crude oil inventory report for the past week later on Tuesday, while the energy information administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of energy will release its inventory report on Wednesday. According to S & P global Platts, analysts on average expect us crude oil inventories to increase by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline inventories to decrease by 2.5 million barrels and distillate (including diesel and heating oil) inventories to decrease by 2.4 million barrels in the week to October 25. The crude oil price declined slightly, which had limited impact on the cost support of downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 29th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 84.5%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 30, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.18% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of 30 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid price has been kept low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are generally sold, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of the 30th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remains low. As of 30 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9640 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, in recent years, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is generally in progress, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price of fluorite remains low. In the near future, the transaction market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is general, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market is volatile. From the perspective of market supply, the market of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the supply capacity of the market source has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the affected price of fluorite market is at a low level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is low and the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite in the North may decrease. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may maintain a low trend.

In the future, under the influence of access conditions and integration, the concentration of domestic industries is expected to further improve

A supply

As the mother of chemical industry, soda ash is widely used as an important basic chemical raw material. After 2000, China’s soda ash industry has developed rapidly in the world, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 2.45%. From 2004 to 2010, the production capacity grew rapidly. In 2015, the production capacity was once reduced, and after 2015, the overall production capacity growth declined.

The world’s soda industry originated in Belgium in 1865. Solvay discovered the key technology of industrial production of soda ash, namely Solvay soda process. In 1865, Solvay established Solvay company, becoming the first soda plant. After 1870, Solvay established factories in Britain, Germany, Russia and the United States. From the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, with the discovery and exploitation of local natural soda, the United States became the main producer and exporter of soda ash in the world. Since 2000, China’s soda ash production capacity has gradually increased, with a larger proportion in the world. In 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.72 million tons, the output was 34.21 million tons, and the operating rate was 76%. North America was the main soda supply area, accounting for 32% of the global soda production capacity, while China’s production capacity accounted for 24% of the global soda production capacity, accounting for 8.34 million tons. Since 2003, China’s soda production capacity has been increasing. By the end of 2018, China’s soda production capacity has reached 29.59 million tons, and the global capacity has reached 70.33 million tons, accounting for 48% of the world’s total. China, North America and Western Europe account for 80% of global capacity.

The production process of soda ash mainly includes ammonia alkali process, natural alkali process and combined alkali process. Globally, ammonia alkali process units are widely distributed, accounting for 47%; natural alkali process units account for 24%, mainly distributed in the United States, Turkey and China; combined alkali process units account for 23%, almost all of which are distributed in China.

China’s soda ash output can be self-sufficient, with the export volume accounting for 5% of the national output, and the export place is mainly Southeast Asian countries, with an import dependency of about 1%. In 2018, China’s soda production reached 26.11 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.9%. After 2015′s elimination of production capacity and policy access restrictions, the operating rate of the soda industry increased to a high level.

The top ten soda production enterprises in the world are Solvay group (7.5 million tons), Chuangshi soda industry (4.4 million tons), Tangshan Sanyou (3.4 million tons), Shandong Haihua (3 million tons), Sina resources (2.8 million tons), China Salt Group (2.63 million tons), Tata chemical North America company (2.5 million tons), Kazan soda company (2.5 million tons), Henan Jinshan Chemical Industry (2 million tons), Central Chemical Company (190 million tons) Ten thousand tons. Solvay group’s soda production capacity is distributed all over the world. Chuangshi and Sina resources and Tata chemical are natural soda enterprises in the United States. Tangshan Sanyou, Shandong Haihua and China Salt Group are the top three soda producers in China. The Cr4 of global soda industry is 0.25, that of China is 0.35, and that of USA is 0.9. The global soda industry is relatively scattered. China’s soda industry is a low concentration oligopoly, while the US soda industry is a high concentration oligopoly.

B demand

In recent years, the global demand for soda ash has made great progress with the rapid development of production. Globally, glass is the main downstream of soda ash, accounting for 52% of the demand for soda ash; soap and detergent account for 13% of the demand for soda ash; inorganic chemicals account for 12% of the demand for soda ash, and the first three account for 77% of the demand for soda ash. Regionally, China, Western Europe, North America and Southeast Asia are the main consumers of soda ash, accounting for 79% of global consumption. From a national perspective, China, the United States, Turkey and India are the main soda producers, while the United States and Turkey are the main soda exporters.

In terms of consumption, China is consistent with the world. Glass, household glass and photovoltaic glass are also the main consumption areas, followed by detergent and inorganic salt. The main demand areas of soda ash in China are in South China, North China and East China, which are the main production areas of glass.

North America accounts for 20% of global production capacity, but only 11% of demand, and about half of production is exported.

C industry characteristics

The characteristics of soda industry are as follows:

Resource dependent low threshold basic industries

Among the raw materials of soda ash, coal, natural gas, raw salt and limestone are all natural resources, which are resource dependent. The United States is rich in natural alkali resources, with good quality of soda ash and high market share of soda ash export. The production methods of soda ash, such as natural soda process, combined soda process and ammonia soda process, are relatively early processes, and the technical threshold is not high, so the soda industry is a resource dependent low threshold industry. Soda ash is an important basic industrial raw material. No matter it is soda ash or glass, there is no competitive substitute in the current technical conditions.

Soda ash has great influence on raw salt and glass in the industrial chain

The price of coal and natural gas has a great influence on the cost of soda ash. The capacity of raw salt exceeds 110 million tons, the capacity of soda ash industry is about 30 million tons, and the consumption of salt is calculated as 1.5 tons, about 4500 tons, with an impact on raw salt of about 40%. The main downstream of ammonia synthesis is urea, which has a certain impact on the soda industry, but the impact of soda on the ammonia industry is relatively small. Coal and natural gas are mainly used for heating and power generation, and chemical demand accounts for less than 10%. Soda ash has little influence on the price of coal. About 60% of soda ash downstream glass, 0.2 tons of soda ash is needed for one ton of glass, accounting for 20% – 30% of glass cost. In the whole industrial chain, coal and natural gas have great influence on soda ash and glass, while soda ash has great influence on raw salt and glass, little influence on synthetic ammonia and little influence on soda ash.

The concentration of soda ash in China has increased

At present, the concentration of domestic soda ash market has been improved after the previous large capacity investment, elimination of capacity and industrial integration. The market share of the top 4 domestic soda ash enterprises is 0.35, and that of the top 8 enterprises is 0.54. In the future, restricted by access conditions and continuous integration, the concentration of domestic soda industry is expected to continue to improve. According to the “access conditions for soda industry” implemented on June 1, 2010, the threshold for new domestic soda plants is 600000 tons for combined soda process and 1.2 million tons for ammonia soda process. According to this estimate, the investment of new equipment is more than 1 billion yuan, and the construction period is about 3 years. The access conditions for soda ash industry also requires that the new production capacity should actively adopt advanced process technology, select energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, and realize online detection of main sections and equipment parameters and adopt DCS (distributed) control system.

I. price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in October, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 19166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 19000 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price fell by 0.87%.

On October 29, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 120.25, the same as yesterday, down 25.49% from 161.39 (2019-07-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 33.64% from 89.98, the lowest point on September 5, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: in October, after the yellow phosphorus price rose a little at the beginning of the month, there was a downward trend in the middle of the month. Later, affected by the three phosphorus inspection, the price stopped falling and remained stable. As of the end of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus has not changed much as a whole. The price has declined slightly, but the price is still high. According to the inspection by the central environmental protection group of Yunnan Province, the enterprises in Yunnan Province started to decline, and the market supply was tight. Some enterprises mainly supply early orders, and the quotation for foreign reports was suspended. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19000 yuan / ton. The main quotation in Sichuan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton. The overall market is short of spot goods, traders are mainly wait-and-see, taking goods more cautiously, market demand is relatively light, and yellow phosphorus quotation is mainly stable.

Industrial chain: the upstream phosphorus ore market continues to be weak this month, and the operation is stable temporarily. As of October 25, the phosphorus ore market in Sichuan Province is generally in good condition. The price of 26% high grade magnesium (magnesium oxide 6) phosphate ore in Mabian, Sichuan Province is around 230 yuan / ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Guizhou Province is in stable operation. The price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou Province is 360-400 yuan / ton. The market of phosphorus ore in Hubei Province is in weak operation. At present, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore is around 390-400 yuan / ton. The trading of downstream phosphoric acid and phosphate enterprises is weak, and the enterprises are cautious to watch the market. In the short term, the market price of phosphoric acid is mainly based on the price structure.

On October 29, the commodity price index of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid was 101.95, flat with that of yesterday, 30.84% lower than 147.42 (2019-07-21), the highest point in the cycle, and 30.97% higher than 77.84, the lowest point on August 15, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-01-01 till now)

III. future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business cooperation, yellow phosphorus enterprises are limited in driving this month, and the overall market of yellow phosphorus is tight in spot. However, the downstream demand is also insufficient. Most traders are mainly wait-and-see, and they are more cautious in taking goods, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the high price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly consolidated.

I. overall trend

From October 19 to 29, the polyethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 29th day, the average price of LLDPE 7042 monitored by the business association in East China was about 7516.67 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 0.44%; the average price of LDPE 2426h was about 8400 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 1.32%; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, with a 10 day drop of 1.19%. The price of PE market in East China fell first and then stabilized.

II. Market analysis

This is the peak consumption season of the “golden nine silver ten”. The demand for agricultural film in the lower reaches has improved, but the polyethylene market has fallen again and again. Now the “silver ten” is coming to an end, and the market trend is still in a weak position. In recent 10 days, PE trend has been stable after falling. On October 17, the linear futures plummeted, which has a significant impact on the mentality of the industry. The downstream attitude is wait-and-see. Replenishment is just needed, and the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light. Petrochemical enterprises have slightly reduced the factory price, weakened market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises has been hindered. Linear futures continue to decline, continue to suppress the market mentality, the peak season is coming to an end, the demand gradually turns weak. However, at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down, some plants have stopped for maintenance, and the market supply has decreased, which to some extent eased the supply pressure and supported the market. PE market is well intertwined and prices are weak.

Demand: the start-up of greenhouse film market has declined. Affected by environmental protection, the start-up rate in Shandong and Hebei has declined. Orders in the northwest and southwest increased by a small margin, and construction began to increase significantly. There are few orders from plastic film enterprises, most of which are in suspension.

Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.

III. future forecast

Looking forward to the future market, business analysts believe that with the end of the peak season, the market demand is gradually reduced. Although the current petrochemical inventory has fallen, the international crude oil has fallen, the futures market is green, which has a significant impact on the mentality of the operators. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection, some enterprises are hindered in production. It is expected that the market will still fall in the future.

I. price trend

The TDI commodity index on October 28 was 68.61, down 0.7 points from yesterday, 72.34% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 14.03% higher than 60.17, the lowest point on February 22, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: according to the statistics of the business agency, the price trend of TDI in the East China market is down. On the 28th, the price of TDI in the East China market was 12966.67 yuan / ton, down 1.02%. The weak TDI market in the East China region was sorted out, the atmosphere in the market remained light, the mentality of the operators was different, some of them reported stable and watched, and some of them negotiated low-end shipments. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 12600-12800 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 12800-13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: upstream toluene, the previous trading day, Sinopec’s listed price of toluene today is the same. The listing price of Shandong refining enterprises was lowered today, about 5550 yuan / ton. The quotation of traders in East China was stable, about 5850-5870 yuan / ton. In the aspect of nitric acid, the price trend in East China is declining, the weak quotation of manufacturers tends to stabilize, and the price of some manufacturers is slightly reduced. Nitric acid market performance is not good, market demand is still weak, and it is expected to be dominated by narrow range shocks in the later period.

Industry: the domestic TDI market is dominated by weak consolidation, the atmosphere in the market is depressed, the volume of transactions is insufficient, the pressure on the industry is becoming heavier, the mentality is different, the negotiation is partial to low-end shipment, and some low-cost goods are heard.

III. price forecast

TDI analysts of the business agency believe that in the later period, the domestic TDI market mainly focused on narrow range consolidation, and focused on the guidance of the factory’s information surface.

Magnesium market trend

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (October 28, 2019): 14583.33 yuan / ton

3. Key points of analysis: since the end of August and the beginning of September, the price of magnesium ingot has stepped down, and now the price of magnesium ingot has begun to stabilize. On the one hand, based on the rising willingness of mainstream manufacturers to hold up the price, affected by the heating season, the operating cost of magnesium enterprises has increased, and the profit of early price decline has been seriously compressed, and there is a great resistance to continue to reduce; on the other hand, the supply of low-cost goods in the market has decreased. In addition to the low-cost shipment of some small factories to relieve the short-term capital pressure, mainstream manufacturers have strong expectations on the recovery of downstream demand at the end of the month, and the quotation is firm.

4. Future market forecast: near the end of the month, the domestic spot market just needs to purchase or will increase. Although the overall market is weak, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will keep stable operation in the near future, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

Moscow, Oct. 23: according to the MRC scanplast report, the production of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in Russia fell by 5% year on year from January to September, with three-quarters of the producers reducing their production.

In the first 9 months of 2019, the total output of HDPE was 695 thousand and 200 tons, compared with 731 thousand and 700 tons in the same period last year.

Tatar Stan’s output has increased slightly, but it can not offset the decrease in the output of the other three producers.

Russia’s production of HDPE dropped from 84 thousand and 300 tons a month ago to 45 thousand and 900 tons in September, due to the maintenance of Stavrolen and Kazanorgsintez production sites.

Kazanorgsintez’s production of HDPE dropped from 50 thousand and 800 tons a month ago to 32 thousand and 200 tons in September. The Kazan manufacturer stopped production from September 26th to October 20th to make profits. The total output of HDPE was 401 thousand and 500 tons in 1-9, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.

Stavrolen’s output last month was 3400 tons, compared with 28 thousand and 200 tons in August. Budyonovsk manufacturers discontinued production from September 6th to October 18th. During the period, the total output of the plant was 214 thousand and 200 tons, down 4% from the same period last year.

Gazprom neftekhim Salavat increased its capacity utilization in September, and total factory output increased from 5400 tons last month to 10200 tons.

The low production in the last month of summer is caused by the delay in maintenance work. In the first 9 months of 2019, the total production of HDPE in the Bashkir plant was 77 thousand tons, down 14% from the same period last year.

Nizhnekamskneftekhim produces linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) during this period.

Aluminum market trend

1. Trade name: standard aluminum ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (October 25, 2019): 14010 yuan / ton

3. Analysis points:

After the sharp reduction of the aluminum price in the early stage, the current price is in the first line of 14000 shock operation. In October, the aluminum price is relatively strong, the aluminum ingot cost support is strong, the superimposed social inventory is significantly lower than that in the early stage, and the overall fundamentals are good. At present, the aluminum ingot price basically reflects the early increase, and it is expected to maintain shock operation in the near term, and pay attention to the actual transaction situation in the market in the later stage.

Attachment:

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI) on Monday, global aluminum production fell to 5.163 million tons in September, compared with 5.329 million tons in August. Global (excluding China) aluminum production in September was 2.135 million tons, a decrease of 70000 tons compared with August and 6000 tons compared with the same period last year. According to the IAI report, China’s primary aluminum production fell to 2.878 million tons in September, compared with 2.974 million tons in August.

According to customs data, in September 2019, China exported 100300 tons of aluminum foil products, up 2.27% month on month, down 15.08% year on year.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent n-propanol market is dominated by stable operation. As of October 25, the factory quotation of the manufacturers in Nanjing is around 9300-9500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of the domestic n-propanol traders is around 10100-11500 yuan / ton (the price difference between different packaging specifications is large).

II. Market analysis

Products: in the near future, the overall trend of the n-propanol market is still stable, with a small number of traders raising their prices. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol produced by Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, is 9500 yuan / ton (bulk water), which is not far from the post Festival price, with a slight increase of 200 yuan / ton. The production area of n-propanol sold by Ningbo Haorui supply chain Co., Ltd., Zibo, Shandong Province, is external. The quotation is still stable, and the ex warehouse quotation is 10500 yuan / ton (including tax barrels); the foreign quotation of Taiwan’s imported n-propanol for Yexing chemical trade in Zhangjiagang is increased compared with that after the national day, and the current foreign quotation is 10600 yuan / ton (including tax barrels), up 500 yuan / ton. All dealers of imported or domestic n-propanol offer different prices, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

Industry chain: the market price of propylene oxide has dropped recently. At present, the market supply is sufficient, manufacturers are active in shipping mentality, and downstream polyether users are more active in bargain hunting and replenishment. On October 25, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9900 yuan / ton, and that of East China mainstream market was 10200 yuan / ton. At present, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 9900 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 9700 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash; the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in South China is around 9800 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash.

III. future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency, it is expected that the market of n-propanol will be stable in the short term, and the future market will need to wait and see the price change of raw materials and the delivery.