Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of ammonium sulfate dropped this month. The average price of domestic ammonium sulfate at the beginning of this month was 660 yuan/ton, and the average price of ammonium sulfate at the end of this month was 630 yuan/ton, down by 4.55%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Shandong is quoted 550-680 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Northeast is quoted 650 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Henan is quoted 600-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Hebei is quoted 600-660 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of ammonium sulphate in Shanxi is quoted 550-650 yuan/ton. The price of ammonium sulfate in East China is about 670 yuan per ton. This month, domestic coking grade ammonium sulfate has been steadily downward, with weak demand support. The internal level operates steadily.

Industry chain: In August 2019, the price of sulphuric acid Market in Shandong fell sharply. The quotation fell from 225.00 yuan/ton on August 1 to 215.00 yuan/ton on August 31, falling by 10 yuan/ton, or 4.44%. Overall, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong fell in August, 53.01% year-on-year, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 35.80 on August 31. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprise market is not warm and the goods are not ideal. In August, the overall fertilizer preparation situation was not good, and the market continued to be depressed.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts of business associations believe that the overall situation of domestic ammonium sulfate Market is not good, the market is weak, the autumn fertilizer market is cold, and the downstream demand is insufficient. It is expected that ammonium sulfate Market will continue to weaken in the later period.

The re-production of ethylene glycol plant and the warming of import profits make it possible to adjust the existing prices in a certain direction. The prudent purchasing in downstream polyester industry makes it difficult to strengthen spot prices. Overall, ethylene glycol will show a weak trend of operation in the near future.

Ethylene glycol supply or recovery

From the plant point of view, compared with the first half of the year, the overall load of domestic ethylene glycol plant has returned to a reasonable range, and the current overall load of the plant is around 65%. Among them, the coal-based ethylene glycol plant returned to about 60% in the second quarter, and there was no obvious adjustment; the oil-based ethylene glycol plant did not reproduce the sharp upward trend in the same period in 2018, but remained stable at about 70%. After the recent overhaul of the device, some devices will be restarted in September, which will have a certain impact on the overall supply of the market.

On the import level, the import volume of ethylene glycol in July was 810,000 tons, up 14.09% year on year; from January to July this year, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 5.8 million tons, down 0.25% year on year. Considering the frequent typhoons in South China in recent years, the import of ethylene glycol will be affected to a certain extent, and the shipping efficiency will be reduced. At present, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is 813,800 tons, which is at the normal level in the same period in previous years from the absolute quantity point of view. Inventory driving is not obvious, but from the point of view of import price difference, with the rise of the price of ethylene glycol, the import price gap continues to warm up. Later, if the influence of typhoon factors weakens, upward pressure on the price of ethylene glycol will gather rapidly, and the price recovery of ethylene glycol will end.

It is difficult for downstream demand to improve fundamentally

With the expected improvement in the supply of ethylene glycol, the downstream polyester and terminal apparel textiles have not improved. Although the stock of terminal grey fabric has declined to some extent, the stock scale is still on the high side of the same period in previous years. From the feedback of the downstream survey, the production orders of foreign trade apparel enterprises are still relatively limited, the available storage capacity of many material warehouses is very low, and the accumulation of raw materials is serious. In the context of Sino-US trade frictions, many manufacturers’expectations for the future are declining. The persistence of terminal recession also makes polyester enterprises very cautious about raw material purchasing and equipment load adjustment.

After a capacity expansion cycle in 2018, the current capacity of polyester is 56 million tons. In the first half of 2019, the capacity of polyester plant increased by 1.23 million tons per year. In the second half of the year, the production capacity of polyester plant is expected to increase by 3.45 million tons per year, and the actual production capacity is about 2.95 million tons per year. Among them, 1.25 million tons per year were put into operation in the third quarter and 1.7 million tons per year in the fourth quarter. In the first half of 2019, the output of polyester increased rapidly, with the total output of 24 million tons from January to June, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year. The overall cash flow of polyester has been greatly reduced, and the profit differentiation of products is not obvious. With the decline of the policy effect of the “ban on abolition”, the profit of bottle flakes declined sharply, and the profit of filament decreased slightly compared with last year. It is expected that the polyester load will continue to adjust and the growth rate of ethylene glycol demand will continue to decline in the following time.

Summary and Reflection

On the cost side, crude oil prices are easy to fall and difficult to rise, which makes the support below the price of ethylene glycol not strong. In addition, the re-production of ethylene glycol plant and the recovery of import profits make the existing prices have a certain adjustment space. At present, ethylene glycol inventory is at a neutral level, and prudent purchasing in downstream polyester industry makes it difficult to strengthen spot prices. Overall, ethylene glycol will show a weak trend of operation in the near future.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the ethanol market was relatively stable. The monitoring by business associations showed that the price of ethanol at the end of the month was 5380 yuan/ton, which was 3.26% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In July, the domestic ethanol market performance was relatively stable. Enterprises in Northeast China were actively releasing goods. Market transaction prices were basically near the cost line. At the beginning of the month, centralized purchasing was carried out in the lower reaches. It was felt that after centralized purchasing in the lower reaches, the market price should be raised. However, the market performance was not as expected, and the market did not rise against expectation. The decline is mainly due to the fact that the inventory of enterprises has not reached a low level. Some enterprises’shipment mentality has actively led to the bursting of low-price goods in the market, the poor delivery of high-end goods, the continuing decline of low-end market prices. In mid-July, Northeast China entered the overhaul season, and large factories entered the overhaul successively. Driven by the good overhaul, the market has not risen. After the end of this month, some enterprises started their installations, which were supported by a small increase in the market due to the large number of contracts and orders from individual enterprises and the low inventory. As for raw materials, the price of maize has been weakly adjusted, due to the poor delivery of ethanol plant shutdown and downstream feed industry, the last auction time for maize storage is expected in early August.

Industry chain: raw materials, corn: this month, the domestic northeastern corn alcohol enterprises profit margin is still acceptable, first corn prices have a narrow fluctuation downward, followed by DDGS prices higher, to fill the profit margin. According to the profitability of corn alcohol in Heilongjiang, the current purchase price of corn is around 1600-1730 yuan/ton, and the current price of DDGS is 1730-1900 yuan/ton. Looking at alcohol, the price mainstream is around 4650-4750 yuan per ton, and theoretical profit of 310 yuan per ton of alcohol.

Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has risen sharply this month, with the increase of 550 yuan/ton in East China and 850 yuan/ton in South China. At the beginning of the month, we encountered the downstream phased replenishment, as well as the partial cargo digestion in the North China market, and the low inventory of the mainstream enterprises, which led to the continuous increase in the turnover of the offer. Subsequently, raw material acetic acid rose sharply, and on the basis of low social inventory of ethyl acetate, suppliers pushed up the offer, following the rising trend of raw materials. After mid-month, part of the export shipments were delivered one after another, and the overall social stock of the market remained low. Under the situation that downstream ethyl acetate remained bullish for the latter period, purchasing and reserving goods was positive, and the market parties had obvious advantages.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking at the market next month, “Gold September Silver October” chemical peak season is coming, but combined with the market at the end of August, it is difficult to make a significant improvement before mid-September. At present, the domestic alcohol supply is large, the Mid-Autumn reserve of downstream liquor has not promoted the market to rise, but in chemical industry, only ethyl ester has started well, and other chemical downstream maintained just need to purchase the amount. According to the rules of the industry, the Mid-Autumn Festival stock-up cycle has ended. September will be faced with the “Eleventh” holiday stock-up, coupled with the production of downstream chemical industry, or a certain degree of favorable alcohol market. However, considering the new grain market in September, the trend of cost will directly guide the market, which needs to be followed up.

Houston, Aug. 27, reported that U.S. polypropylene (PP) exporters are facing some logistical delays as packaging facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast are close to full capacity.

Domestically sold materials are mainly transported by bulk trains, while serving export buyers in Mexico and Canada.

For exports outside North America, materials must be shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast for packaging. Export goods are usually sold on container ships in 25 kg bags.

Packaging facilities along the Gulf of Mexico are experiencing delays as they try to keep up with the large volume of new polyethylene exported from the Gulf Coast.

Therefore, packaging facilities and warehouses have limited capacity to handle polypropylene exports, as polyethylene exporters and packers have much larger business volumes.

The U.S. polypropylene market is abundant, and there is a tendency to increase output in export channels to reduce domestic supply length.

Exports are piling up on bulk trucks in chemical plants, but there is insufficient supply of bagged materials for immediate shipment, so there is a delay of two to three weeks before the bags are officially sold.

As the current quotation level is considered too high to take advantage of international arbitrage opportunities, the export price of polypropylene is facing some downward pressure.

Propylene contracts in August were extended for delivery, which may limit the upward trend of polypropylene prices.

American polypropylene goods are usually priced on the basis of unit premium.

ICIS assessed that the U.S. Gulf FOB for polypropylene bagged exports was 46-49 cents per pound ($1014-1080 per ton) in the week ending August 23.

Polypropylene is mainly used for packaging, rope, carpet, plastic parts, loudspeakers and automobile parts.

Major polypropylene producers in the United States include Brazil National Chemical Corporation, ExxonMobil, Formosa, Inlis, Leandebaser, Philips 66 and Dodall Petrochemical.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in August was 1 297.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1 228.80 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling by 68.70 yuan/ton in the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of -5.29%. In August, the market price of petroleum coke continued its downward trend.

The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on August 31 was 95.57, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.58% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 42.88% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Petroleum coke delivery in August was good as a whole. Price was lowered in the early period and inventory was low at the end of the month. The coking unit of Dongming Petrochemical Company started normal operation. Petroleum coke prices fell by 30-80 yuan/ton this month.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.58 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 56.71 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 3.19%; Brent crude oil was 65.17 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 61.08 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: The market of calcined coke and prebaked anode turns into profit. Affected by Typhoon Lichma in mid-August, the market predicts that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminium in Shandong will decrease (Weiqiao 105,000 tons of production capacity of electrolytic aluminium will be forced to voluntarily stop production), superimposed Xinjiang letter accident, market information surface factors are obvious, and the price of electrolytic aluminium will rise substantially. According to the data of business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of August 31 was 14290.00 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Petroleum coke analysts of business associations predict that in August, petroleum coke market will continue its downward trend, downstream carbon enterprises and calcined coke will turn a profit and electrolytic aluminium price will rise sharply, but due to the decline in aluminium plant start-up rate, petroleum coke market will be depressed; low petroleum coke stocks at the end of the month and concerns about environmental protection and transportation restrictions in September are expected to be refined. Petroleum coke may go up and down in September, with prices ranging from 1150 to 1350 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China rose slightly today (September 3). The average market price was 5193 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day and down 44.46% from the previous year. Main futures rebounded, closing at 516 yuan/ton in 2001, up 24 yuan/ton, or 0.47% from the previous trading day.

Hengli Petrochemical, the mainstream PTA plant, is scheduled to overhaul the No. 1 2.2 million ton PTA production line in mid-September with a maintenance time of about 15 days. As soon as the news came out, the market was boosted and the current start-up load was maintained at 94%. However, due to the planned overhaul of the market rebound support is relatively limited, the trading atmosphere declined, mainly traders to buy, sporadic polyester factories follow up. Asia PX (CFR China) closed at $778 per ton on September 2, down $10 per ton from the previous trading day. Downstream polyester start-up load slightly declined to 89%, the profit of end-weaving elastic enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is near 78%, the purchase and stock sentiment is general. The prices of Main polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are stable, POY is down 100 yuan/ton individually. At present, the price range of POY150D/48F market is 7600-7950 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that although there are good incentives for major plant maintenance plans, but the current market is full of mobile goods, and raw materials and demand side is not optimistic, PTA prices are expected to remain mainly vulnerable adjustment in the short term.

Recently, the price of potassium sulphate has begun to show a downward trend. In the second and third quarters, the market of potassium sulphate was driven by multiple favorable factors, and the market was good. However, with the weakening of demand, the price of potassium sulphate began to decline gradually. So how can the future market of potassium sulphate go?

The reason for the price increase of potassium sulfate in the early period is mainly due to the low start of the potassium sulfate industry as a whole, the large increase in export volume and the application of water-soluble fertilizer. At present, the summer demand of water-soluble fertilizer in many areas is gradually ending, and the traditional off-season of entering the water-soluble fertilizer market in some areas in autumn and winter. In addition, the landing of typhoon “Lichma” in the earlier period is also In some areas, floods frequently occur, which will weaken the enthusiasm of downstream planting. As the demand for water-soluble fertilizer decreases, the corresponding 52% water-soluble potassium sulfate lacks strong support. Recently, Mannheim’s pre-execution orders were not well received. Although the factory offer was firm, the transaction price began to loosen with the increase of in-plant inventory.

Despite the recent weakening of demand, the export volume of potassium sulfate this year is considerable, and Mannheim industry inventory has increased, but still in the pre-shipment order, there is no obvious inventory pressure. In the second half of the year, the demand for tobacco fertilizer is also good for potassium sulfate. It is known that although the bidding of Fujian tobacco has gone through the process of flow-scale reflow-scale, it was finally won by Luo Potassium, with a price of 2950 yuan.

From the cost point of view, the trend of potassium chloride in the first half of the year has been downward all the way, the overall trend is down, but the situation of environmental protection upgrade pressure and hydrochloric acid inversion is grim, the overall start-up rate of enterprises is not high, and the downward space of potassium sulfate price is limited.

Generally speaking, the domestic potassium sulfate Market has no obvious advantage and shortfall. Although the price has a downward trend, the range is limited, and it is difficult to fluctuate significantly in the short term. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to the downstream demand situation and the start-up changes of potassium sulfate enterprises in the later period.

Price Trend

In August, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic dimethyl ether market price was 3210 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2920 yuan/ton. The decline rate in the month was 9.03%, and the price fell 30.29% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Dimethyl ether market continued to decline in August, the market trading atmosphere is flat. As of August 30, Hebei Yutai dimethyl ether plant is not quoted for parking, Henan Lankao Huitong Chemical Co., Ltd. is not quoted for dimethyl ether, Henan Yima Xinyuan dimethyl ether plant failure is not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether of Henan Xinlian Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 2910 yuan/ton, that of Henan Shengxin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 2850 yuan/ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3000 yuan/ton, that of Shandong Dezhou Shengdeyuan Co., Ltd. is 2980 yuan/ton, and that of Shanxi Orchidaceae Co., Ltd. The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in Technological Venture Co., Ltd. is 2900 yuan/ton.

The domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline in August. At the beginning of August, the profit of dimethyl ether Market was relatively high. Some manufacturers started driving and the market supply increased, but the terminal demand was slow, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the price fell mainly. In mid-August, in order to avoid the continuous downward price, Henan Xinlian implemented the policy of keeping the bottom price for many times. Although it protected the market price on the side, it still did not alleviate the shipment situation of manufacturers. Inventory accumulated, pressure increased gradually, more profit was given priority to the shipment, and the price was lowered again. Until the end of August, the dimethyl ether Market has not improved substantially, the inventory of dimethyl ether manufacturers is difficult to release. Most enterprises’prices have fallen below 3000 yuan. The downstream market has a strong hollow outlook on the future market. Most of them are on demand, wait-and-see. The manufacturers’ shipments continue to be cold and the market continues to be weak.

Industry chain:

In August, the methanol market rose first and then depressed. In the early August of Henan, the overhaul of enterprises increased, the market supply decreased, and the prices continued to rise. However, in late August, there is no substantial improvement in downstream demand, the overall shipment is not satisfactory, the pressure on merchants to ship is increasing, and the price fluctuation is falling. In the latter half of the year, most devices were restarted one after another. In addition, the trend of futures market was weak, which affected the market mentality. The downstream mentality was cautious, multi-wait-and-see was dominant, and the price continued to weaken. At present, downstream demand is in a weak position, and port inventory remains high.

The narrow adjustment of liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong market) shocks in August is the main factor, and the international crude oil price still has a great impact on the liquefied petroleum gas market this month. In early August, liquefied petroleum gas prices continued to be low, downstream risky mentality into the market was positive, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure, and then pushed up. However, limited by the decline in international crude oil, the increase is not significant. In mid-August, the typhoon affected the production and transportation of the manufacturers, blocked shipment for several days in a row, and prices fell. Subsequently, the weather gradually weakened, shipments returned to normal, inventory was eased, and international crude oil pushed the market higher. But shipments have improved for a short time, although the traditional sales season is approaching, but demand is limited, coupled with the expected fall in September CP, downstream bearish on the future market, the enthusiasm for entering the market has faded. The shipment of the manufacturer returned to flat again, and the price fell again at the end of August. Until September CP was introduced, propane had fallen but less than expected, alleviating the market mentality and rising prices slightly.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that: at present, the trend of cost methanol and liquefied gas is weak, negative market mentality, but as the weather gets cooler in September, the demand for liquefied gas is gradually rising, which may boost the market. The dimethyl ether Market is expected to stabilize in September.

Price Trend

In August, the propane market was mainly narrowly adjusted. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 3615 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3692.5 yuan/ton. The average price of propane rose by 2.14% in the month, which was 31.06% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propane price shocks this month, the market atmosphere is general. As of August 30, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company of Shandong Province has been stopped for self-use and no quotation has been offered for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 3600 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3700 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3750 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 3720 yuan/ton, and Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 3700 yuan./ The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi is 3630 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. of Sinopec is 3400 yuan.

Industry chain: The narrow adjustment of liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong market) shocks in August is dominant, and the international crude oil price still has a greater impact on the liquefied petroleum gas market this month. In early August, liquefied petroleum gas prices continued to be low, downstream risky mentality into the market was positive, manufacturers shipped more smoothly, inventory pressure, and then pushed up. However, limited by the decline in international crude oil, the increase is not significant. In mid-August, the typhoon affected the production and transportation of the manufacturers, blocked shipment for several days in a row, and prices fell. Subsequently, the weather gradually weakened, shipments returned to normal, inventory was eased, and international crude oil pushed the market higher. But shipments have improved for a short time, although the traditional sales season is approaching, but demand is limited, coupled with the expected fall in September CP, downstream bearish on the future market, the enthusiasm for entering the market has faded. The shipment of the manufacturer returned to flat again, and the price fell again at the end of August. Until September CP was introduced, propane had declined but less than expected, alleviating market mentality and rising prices slightly.

In August, the price of propylene market declined sharply, fluctuations were still frequent, with a total of three peaks and troughs. Polypropylene powder, butyl octanol and propylene oxide are still profitable, customer procurement is positive; in August, the domestic acrylic acid market rose by 3.04%, which is good for the propylene market; epichlorohydrin began to oscillate downward, with a monthly decline of 23.28%, a monthly amplitude of 28.63%, and the recent market is mainly consolidation, or for the propylene market. Propylene prices have a negative impact.

The propane Market as a whole rose slightly in August, mostly due to shocks. At the beginning of this month, CP price was introduced in August, propane slightly fell, which brought bad news to the market. In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply on August 2, which affected the market mentality. The enthusiasm for entering the market downstream was not high, the manufacturers’shipments were not smooth, and the main focus of propane price was to let profits drain away from the warehouse. But in mid-August, with the sustained upward trend of international crude oil, propane market was boosted, downstream market entry enthusiasm improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, inventory pressure was not high, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. But August is still the traditional off-season of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, coupled with the anticipated fall of CPs in September, the price rise is blocked. Until the end of August, when the CP price was introduced in September, propane dropped slightly compared with last month, but the decline was less than expected. The market mentality was supported and the price rose slightly.

Saudi Amy Corp. announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350 per ton, down by $20 per ton from last month; butane was $360 per ton, flat from last month. The cost of long-term approximate cargo propane converted to onshore is around 3 022 yuan/ton and that of butane 3100 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts at business associations believe that although the atmosphere is not good in August, demand will increase in September compared with August as the weather gets colder. With the expectation of “gold, nine silver and ten silver” in the traditional sales season, September is expected to reverse the situation and prices will gradually rise.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic phenol Market is very competitive. According to the monitoring data of business associations, up to now, phenol petrochemical plants in eastern China have offered 7600 yuan/ton and local market 7600 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Products: This week’s domestic phenol Market is strong or narrow, petrochemical manufacturers issued an increase of 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, the mentality of traders in all regions was boosted, and the East China region was boosted, but near the end of the month, the contract was basically completed, with no pressure on delivery, and the offer was reduced. Downstream more just need to follow up, trial order transactions reduced. Less than 80% of phenol and ketone enterprises started construction, Xisa Chemical Company stopped for 4 days on the 29th. The port stock is 39500 tons.

Up to now, the market offers are as follows: the mainstream reference offer in East China is 7600 yuan/ton, the Yanshan region is 7700 yuan/ton, the Shandong region is 7650 yuan/ton, the Henan region is 7900 yuan/ton, and the South China region is 7900 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing was raised by 100 yuan, the price was 5300 yuan / ton, and the price of propylene in East China was lowered by 100 to 7450 yuan / ton. Downstream domestic BPA started stable at 80%, phenolic resin factory fluctuation is small, on-demand procurement.

3. Future Market Forecast

Domestic phenol Market Consolidation and operation, Lihua Yi Phase II bisphenol A plant is planned to put into operation, phenol will continue to be shipped in limited quantities, Shandong supply shortage, East China port cost pressures, low-price shipment intention is not big, or strong price intention, business associations expect the domestic phenol Market Consolidation and operation next week, East China offer 7600 yuan/ton.