The Rare Earth Index (REI) was 380 points on September 10, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.00% from its cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06) and 40.22% from its lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 413,500 yuan/ton, 2325,000 yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 327,500 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 193,000 yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 382,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 329,500 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 413,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.93 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the price trend of rare earth on-site is temporarily stable, the domestic rare earth market is generally trading, the price of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides remains high, the inquiry list of praseodymium and neodymium oxide on-site has increased recently, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. At that time, the on-site light rare earth merchants are reluctant to sell, optimistic about the future market, and recent on-site transactions. General situation. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future. It is expected that some prices of rare earth market will continue to rise slightly.

On September 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 66.42, up 1.09 points from yesterday, down 44.71% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 37.17% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7000-7200 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.
Recently, the price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec has increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, on-site supply shortage, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the market of imported phthalic anhydride has risen in the port area, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is better, the stock of the port has dropped substantially, Up, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation. Recently, domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocked and declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price 7800-7900 yuan/ton, downstream prices have risen, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to maintain a higher trend in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA spot market prices in China fell slightly today (September 10), 0.50% lower than the previous trading day and 43.22% lower than the same period last year. PTA main futures shocks adjustment, the end of a small decline. Main futures (2001) closed at 5190 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton, or 0.42% from the previous trading day. At present, PTA plant load is at 96% high, the market is full of liquidity supply, the main buyers are traders and polyester factories.

Yizheng Chemical Fiber 350,000 tons PTA device was restarted on September 10. The device has been repaired since August 1. Huabin Petrochemical PTA plant is scheduled to shut down shortly next week for some reasons, with an annual capacity of 1.4 million tons. Hengli PTA plant announces the maintenance plan, and there are few later maintenance plans. As for the new plant, Sino-Thai Petrochemical Xinjiang’s 1.2 million tons PTA new plant is scheduled to be completed and put into operation on October 30 and commissioned on December 20.

In the raw material market, Asia’s PXCFR China closed at $785 per ton on September 9, up 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The domestic price of PX is 6 600 yuan per ton. Faced with the pressure of putting new units into operation, Hainan Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to put new PX units into commission in late September. Hengyi Brunei 1.5 million tons PX plant will enter the commissioning stage. Downstream polyester start-up load near 90%, terminal weaving just need to purchase, cautious wait-and-see mood does not decrease, Jiangsu and Zhejiang mainstream factories polyester quotation temporarily stable, promotional preferential shipment, polyester POY (150D/48F) market price range in 7700-8050 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PX, PTA new device supply boost expectations, there are some worries on the supply side, the cost support is relatively limited, and downstream demand “Jinjiu” performance is weak, PTA market is expected to be weak adjustment in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of asphalt was stable this week, and the price of asphalt was reported at 3546 yuan/ton, which was equal to the price of asphalt last week.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The international oil price in the latter half of this week has been rising day after day, but the market demand for asphalt is stable as a whole. This week, the market price of asphalt has not followed the rise of crude oil price.

Industry Chain: The Sino-US trade war continues, and crude oil is blocked from going up in the absence of a large environment. However, Russia has declared a strict cut in production, coupled with the deterioration of the situation in the United States and Iran, the market sentiment is growing. WTI crude oil futures have risen for four consecutive days, reaching $57 per barrel. Last week, WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.18% and 0.86% respectively.

Asphalt market: This week, Northeast China has abundant foreign reserves, insufficient market demand, and refinery shipments are constrained. Liaohe Petrochemical Asphalt Price was sharply reduced by 250 yuan/ton. The terminal projects in Shandong and North China are still under construction, with little change in total demand. In East China, inventory continues to degrade better, but the number of new contracts is relatively small. At present, Shandong and Northeast markets have more low-price goods, and the asphalt market lacks effective project support. The overall performance of asphalt price is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business associations, believes that international crude oil is expected to rise, but overall, the support of asphalt prices is relatively small, and the price of value asphalt futures market is severely suppressed. It is expected that the price of asphalt will remain stable next week.

Domestic demand for styrene is very strong. From 2006 to 2018, China’s export of styrene is very small and its dependence on imports is high. In 2006, China’s import of styrene was 2.343 million tons, and then gradually increased. By 2015, the import of styrene reached a peak of 3.744 million tons, and in 2018, the import dropped sharply to 2.914 million tons, mainly due to the rapid release of new domestic production capacity.

Before 2006, due to the serious shortage of domestic styrene supply and demand, the import dependence was high, and in 2004 the import dependence was as high as 75%. In 2006, with the release of new domestic production capacity of styrene, domestic import dependence of styrene decreased from 65% in 2005 to 52% in 2006. From 2007 to 2009, the output growth of SM’s main downstream products was faster than that of SM, and most of the new production capacity in 2009 was concentrated in the second half of the year. Although some of the devices were built, they were not formally put into operation, so the import dependence rebounded from 2006 for three consecutive years. From 2010 to 2018, with the expansion of large-scale units in domestic enterprises and the commissioning of a number of new units, the dependence of domestic styrene imports has decreased year by year.

From the monthly import volume of styrene in China, the monthly import volume is relatively balanced, and the monthly import volume remains between 240,000 tons and 310,000 tons, with no seasonal change. Moreover, such a balanced amount of imports shows that the market is very mature, and domestic demand should mainly be based on long-term orders, and domestic recipients have a high acceptance of international market prices, indicating that domestic demand for styrene is mainly hard demand and speculative is not high.

In terms of import and export trade modes, styrene import trade has continued to diversify in recent years, in which the general trade mode occupies the mainstream position. According to the statistical data of 2018, the general trade volume is 2474,000 tons, accounting for 84.9%; the second is the import processing trade, accounting for 219,000 tons, accounting for 7.5%; the third is the bonded regulatory field. The trade volume of import and export goods is 145,000 tons, accounting for 5.0%. From 2014 to 2016, the proportion of general trade modes increased gradually, while the foreign processing trade showed a shrinking trend, which was related to the overall market pattern of domestic demand and export constraints. In 2018, the import volume declined, the proportion of general trade declined, and the foreign processing trade increased, mainly due to the gradual release of domestic capacity, the further decline of import volume and the stimulation of the development of foreign processing trade.

Because of strong market demand and huge market gap, China has provided digestive space for the excess styrene capacity in the world. Many developed countries or regions of petrochemical industry have put their products into our market one after another. China imports styrene mainly from Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Iran, the United States, Singapore and other places. In 2018, due to the imposition of anti-dumping duties on styrene originating in Korea, the United States and Taiwan Province of China, Korea lost its long-standing position as the first exporter of styrene to China. In 2018, the top three countries and regions in the import volume of styrene were Saudi Arabia, Japan and Taiwan Province of China.

In 2008, the top three sources of domestic styrene imports were Korea, Japan and Taiwan Province of China, which accounted for 86% of the total imports of styrene. Starting from 2009, new production units in the Middle East quickly seized market share by virtue of their rich petrochemical resources and low cost advantages. From 2009 to 2012, the proportion of goods in the Middle East increased year by year, and the market share of Japanese and Korean goods was gradually squeezed. Since 2012, Saudi Arabia has imported more styrene than Japan, ranking second. In 2018, there were 761,000 tons of styrene from Saudi Arabia, which became the largest source of styrene imports in China.

In recent years, due to the strong demand of polyester industry, the demand for ethylene glycol in the domestic market has maintained a rapid growth trend, thus promoting the increase of ethylene glycol production capacity. In recent years, many large-scale ethylene glycol production plants have been built and put into operation in China. With the continuous increase of ethylene glycol production capacity in China, the output is also increasing.

Although the production capacity and output of ethylene glycol in China have increased rapidly, it still can not meet the growing market demand of domestic polyester and so on. A large number of imports are needed every year, and the import volume is increasing year by year. At present, China’s ethylene glycol products are mainly used in the production of polyester, antifreeze liquid and adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols. Among them, polyester is the main consumption area of ethylene glycol in China, and its consumption accounts for 94.0% of the total domestic consumption. The other 6.0% is used for antifreeze, adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols.

In recent years, the production of polyester (including polyester fiber, polyester resin and film) has developed rapidly in China. In 2010, the production of polyester will reach 19 million tons, and the demand for ethylene glycol will reach 6.65 million tons. With the consumption of antifreeze and other aspects, it is expected that the total demand for ethylene glycol in China will continue to grow at a high speed.

The capacity of domestic ethylene plant is about 6.46 million tons, and the start-up rate of the plant is 70.4%, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the end of August and 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The capacity of the coal-based ethylene glycol plant is about 4.47 million tons, and the start-up rate of the plant is 51.6%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of August.

On the whole, the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises are showing losses in varying degrees, the start-up rate of ethylene plant is declining, and the start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant is reduced to 50%.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of ethylene glycol dropped sharply in June, and the average price of ethylene glycol also decreased, showing weak demand as a whole.

As for port inventory, data show that as of July 29, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports in eastern China was about 921.5 million tons, down 218,000 tons from the end of last month, a 19% annualized decline, and an increase of 48% over the same period last year. Among them, Zhangjiagang’s inventory was 6605 tons, down 17,000 tons from the end of last month, an increase of 2%; Taiyuan’s inventory was 93,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from last month; Ningbo’s inventory was 87,000 tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; Jiangyin’s inventory was 20,000 tons, down 38,000 tons from last month; Shanghai and Changshu’s inventory was 91,000 tons, down 36,000 tons from last month. Tons.

In summary, the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises show losses, the start-up rate of ethylene plant has fallen, the start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant has dropped to about 50%, and the domestic supply has been reduced. The stock of ethylene glycol port in East China is about 921,500 tons, and the stock keeps decreasing. Downstream polyester start-up high drop, weaving enterprises also began to decline, polyester and grey fabric inventory at a high level, facing the pressure of de-inventory, polyester production and marketing at the beginning of the month is relatively cold, to the end of the month production and marketing gradually warmed up. Ethylene glycol futures prices gradually rebounded after bottoming in the middle of the month, and are expected to enter a strong trend until the early downstream inventory is digested. The operational strategies are as follows:

Transaction contract: Ethylene glycol 2001.

Trading Direction: Buy.

It is planned to enter the venue in two batches, occupying 40%-60% of the total capital and buying 500-600 hands.

First entry interval: 4620 – 4680 yuan / ton, target price: 4720 – 5480 yuan / ton.

Stop loss price: 4320-4580 yuan/ton, entry position 300-400 hands, occupying 30-40% of capital.

Risk factors requiring attention:

1. Port stocks have increased substantially.

2. Demand for polyester decreased more than expected.

3. The macro atmosphere is tense.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic butanone market has been increasing rapidly for several days since the beginning of last week (September 2). As of Friday (September 6), according to the comprehensive quotation of several mainstream regions, the overall average price of butanone market is around 7,900 yuan/ton, up about 1,200 yuan/ton from the end of August (August 30). The proportion was 17.82%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The quotations of several butanone companies have risen since the end of August. Since September 2, the price has been rising steadily. The price has been soaring all the time. The daily increase is 300-400 yuan/ton. Until September 6, the butanone market is still in a strong upward trend. At present, the supply of factories is tight and the stock is not serious. Full, the overall inventory of traders is very low, sales sentiment is obvious, tight spot makes the market warming up this week, turnover has improved. At present, the market quotation of South China is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton, while that of North China and East China is around 8300 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of upstream raw material liquefied gas has remained stable this week, with some areas rising slightly. At present, the market price of liquefied gas in North China is stable, and the mainstream price is around 3500-3600 yuan/ton. The price of liquefied petroleum gas in eastern China has risen, with the mainstream price between 3400 and 3450 yuan/ton, and the market turnover is normal.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 21 kinds of commodities rising in the list of 58 prices on September 5, 2019. They are concentrated in steel plate (5 kinds) and non-ferrous plate (4 kinds). The top three commodities are WTI crude oil (4.30%), eggs (2.73%) and iron ore (Australia) (2.67%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio, focusing on non-ferrous (4 kinds in total) and agricultural and sideline (1 kind in total). The first three commodities falling were nickel (-2.07%), coking coal (-1.36%) and soybean meal (-1.16%). On September 5th, the average increase and decrease was 0.28%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that under the serious shortage of spot, the butanone market is expected to be in a stable and strong consolidation state next week.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. The average market price of East China during the week to the weekend was about 1733.33 yuan/ton, up 6.66 yuan/ton from last week, up 0.39%, down 18.37% from last year. The light soda commodity index on September 6 was 88.89, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.58% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 40.76% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market was weak and stable, the manufacturers’orders were sufficient. At present, the domestic light alkali mainstream ex-factory price was 1580-1770 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream to the terminal price was 1750-1850 yuan/ton. This week, the heavy alkali market did not change much, the manufacturers’ shipment situation was relatively smooth, and the market stock was bullish. It is anticipated that manufacturers will implement more end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: the downstream cryolite plant is running normally at present, the factory stock is sufficient and pressure-free, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable; the price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week, the overall market is still depressed, the cost of raw materials continues to depress, the upstream and downstream trading entities are cautious in buying and selling as a whole, and the downstream trading entities are watching. Attitude is strong, domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices continued to operate at a low level this week. This week, the downstream glass industry will welcome gold, silver and silver. Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for production. The glass market enters the traditional peak season, with a steady upward trend and a slight price increase. It is expected that in the traditional peak season, there is still a possibility of partial upward adjustment, with limited space.

Industry: This week, the domestic soda market reorganizes and operates mainly. The manufacturers of soda plant maintenance have decreased, the starting load has increased, the overall market turnover is mild, the demand for heavy soda is relatively weak and stable, which has brought some support to soda price. In addition, the current stock of enterprises is not high, and some low-end price transactions have increased.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market has been running steadily, the number of maintenance manufacturers has decreased, the supply of enterprises is relatively stable, and the delivery situation is weak and stable. It is expected that the soda market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on September 1 was 15933.33 yuan/ton, and on September 7 was 18600 yuan/ton. Within a week, the price rose by 16.74%.

On September 7, the yellow phosphorus commodity index was 117.72, up 5.27 points from yesterday, down 27.06% from the cyclical peak of 161.39 points (2019-07-28), and up 30.83% from the lowest point of 89.98 on September 05, 2018. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Yellow phosphorus prices have returned to a high level this week, and the spot market of yellow phosphorus is very tight. At present, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou have stopped production in an all-round way, while some enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have stopped quoting, and the contract is the main one. Yellow phosphorus Market Spot tension, strong wait-and-see sentiment of enterprises, the focus continued to move upwards. At present, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 18,000-20,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 17800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: This week, the phosphate ore market continued to be weak and stable, and intra-site transactions remained light and normal. This week, coke prices were stable, and the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market was 2,080 yuan per ton. The price of phosphoric acid in the downstream market rose as a whole this week. The peak season of downstream pesticide enterprises is coming.

The index of yellow phosphorus industry chain on September 7 was 104.27, up 1.78 points from yesterday, down 16.09% from 124.27 points in the cycle (2019-07-24) and 30.84% from 79.69 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

3. Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the business and chemical branch believe that the yellow phosphorus market is short of cash, the start-up rate is low everywhere, downstream demand is on the upward trend, the market is well supported, and the price is expected to remain narrow and upward in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic caprolactam market price dropped this month. The average ex-factory price of caprolactam was 12983 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 12003 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.32%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At the beginning of the month, the price of caprolactam liquids market dropped sharply. From mid-month to the end of the month, the price of caprolactam liquids began to fluctuate. The mainstream price of domestic liquid caprolactam market is RMB 1210-12300 per ton. As of August 31, the price of caprolactam liquids in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 11600 yuan/ton, cash was discharged from the factory, and the first and second phases of caprolactam liquids were running normally; the actual transaction was negotiable; the price of caprolactam liquids in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12,200 yuan/ton, the contract was the main one, 140,000 tons of caprolactam liquids normally, and the price of caprolactam liquids in Tianchen, Fujian 00 yuan/ton, normal operation of the device. At present, the opening rate of caprolactam plant is stable, and the spot supply in the market is still acceptable.

Industry chain: The upstream market of cyclohexanone first fell and then rose in August. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of cyclohexanone was 8333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 8133 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 2.40% in the month. Prices fell 34.13% over the same period last year. During the month, Luxi and Haili cyclohexanone export is unstable, spot supply is not much, chemical fiber market demand is general, cyclohexanone fluctuates in the range of 500 yuan/ton. The downstream PA6 market is weak and prices are falling. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 13650.00 yuan/ton, which is 2.50% lower than that at the beginning of the month. Domestic PA6 spot supply is relatively adequate, downstream demand follow-up improvement is limited, maintain just needed procurement. In the mid-term, the US news of the postponement of the release of China’s tariff policy was positive. Domestic business confidence improved and the decline of PA6 eased. However, high-price orders were still difficult to deliver, traders had greater resistance to shipment, and buyers and sellers were cautious in their operation.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of caprolactam of business association thinks: At present, the caprolactam market is affected by terminal, and the overall situation is weak. The demand for caprolactam is hampered by the rising price of raw materials in the upstream, insufficient follow-up in the downstream and weak market. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be adjusted weakly in the future.