By the end of September, urea prices did not meet the expectations of the public and helplessly re-emerged after the rise and fall situation, Shandong Lianghe Shanxi, Jiangsu and Anhui factory quotations fell not much, the cumulative decline of 20-40 yuan/ton, transaction prices fell sharply! The receiving price of urea in Linyi Compound Fertilizer Plant dropped from 1860-1900 yuan/ton before the Mid-Autumn Festival to 1810-1820 yuan/ton on September 17, then rose slightly to about 1830 yuan/ton, and fell again to 1810-1820 yuan/ton by September 23.

Urea prices have been reversing over and over again, so what should we do with the distributors who want to take the goods for winter storage?

Cold! Hee-hee, make a joke. To return to the truth, this article will briefly analyze the urea winter storage market this year from the aspects of picking up the goods, when to pick up the goods and not preparing for the winter storage.

Suppose we have taken urea for winter storage, that is, when the price of the first two or three times “suspected bottom”, what should we do? One way is to sell part of the product when the price rises and there is a certain profit. The other way is to slow down the resale or carry out a longer-term reserve for distributors who take goods near 1 700 yuan/ton of Shandong, 1 650 yuan/ton of Shanxi and 1 500 yuan/ton of Inner Mongolia. The premise is not to take into account storage costs, capital interest and so on.

For distributors who are considering winter storage, Zhongfei’s suggestion is that they can get a small or moderate amount of goods when they meet super-low prices or meet our psychological expectations. So when is the best time to store urea in winter? Which is the time point at which the next price bottoms?

First of all, we have to admit that the trend of urea price in the second half of this year is totally different from the previous two years, neither rising all the way from late August in 2017 to spring, nor rising all the way from early August in 2018 to the end of November. The trend of urea price in the second half of this year is rising from July to August-September. The three time. The pace of winter storage operation has been disrupted, unable to refer to the previous two years, after all, this year’s supply and demand situation is different.

As far as the demand is concerned, it is well known that due to the poor economic environment, the demand for urea in domestic industrial plywood factories and power plants decreases again and again. In the aspect of industrial direct fertilization, the amount of direct application of urea has been reduced due to the substitution of high nitrogen compound fertilizer, formula fertilizer, nitrogen and potassium topdressing, extruded granular ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate. Fertilizing directly or into multiple compound fertilizers and then fertilizing, the total return of urea is needed. The demand for urea and the price support of industrial compound fertilizer plants are very strong.

On the supply side, a factory in Inner Mongolia has been put into operation since the end of 2018, a factory in Shandong has increased its load since the middle of 2018, and a large factory in Shanxi has been carrying out full load for a longer time since 2018. In spring 2019, the time for urea manufacturers in Southwest Inner Mongolia to resume production is ahead of the previous year. In view of the high urea profit in these two years, many urea manufacturers in Southwest Inner Mongolia have made great progress. High-load production by factories has made the time of urea production in China reaching 150,000 tons or more per day longer than 160,000 tons. Since April this year, urea production in China has been basically more than 150,000 tons per day (except in late August). It is recalled that the daily production of urea before that was more than 150,000 tons or in spring 2017 and July 2016. Go ahead (at that time, the daily output was more than 160,000 tons or even as high as 200,000 tons). In short, urea has returned to a slightly oversupply, which is about to reach a more obvious oversupply, i.e. the need for exports to ease domestic pressures.

Secondly, the low price reduction of export volume makes the winter storage operation of our dealers more difficult. Export is a double-edged sword. When domestic and international prices are higher, export is the icing on the cake. When domestic and international prices are low, export is a blow. For example, the label that ended on September 13, which is 260 US dollars per ton offshore, and the price of urea from China to Yantai Port is as low as 1750 yuan per ton. The shortfall is that China’s export volume of goods may be only 100,000 tons, the price and quantity are hit. After all, if the export situation is good, then the domestic inventory situation will be moderate, and the price is expected to rise significantly after the winter storage. Our distributors should consider increasing the quantity of winter storage appropriately when the export has improved markedly.

Thirdly, the best winter storage time, of course, can not be said to be the best time to pick up goods. First, before National Day 11, urea manufacturers need to consider the order and transportation status of goods for more than half a month before and after National Day. They can pick up a small amount of goods at the time of low-cost purchase orders. Second, after the holidays, industrial demand or export. If demand for urea is still lagging behind, urea prices may have new lows. After all, by the end of October, the compound fertilizer enterprises will start to store and collect money in winter and produce fertilizer in winter. In November-December, according to the cold weather or not, according to the situation of civil coal and natural gas, the start-up of coal head, especially gas head urea enterprises will be limited to a certain extent, and the daily output of urea is expected to be less than 140,000 tons. Even 130,000 tons, urea prices are expected to rise to some extent.

Finally, in the general economic environment, urea prices are difficult to rise dramatically, or will be repeated after the rise. As for winter storage, a small amount or an appropriate amount of goods can be taken, otherwise it will face greater risks.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, domestic PTA spot market prices rebounded slightly. As of September 23, the average market price was 518 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, down 35.28% from the previous year. PTA main futures rebounded and closed at 5176 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, or 0.66% from the previous trading day.

Due to the support of processing fees and the expectation of PTA plant maintenance, the price is favorable, and the trading atmosphere has been improved. Polyester factories are the main purchasers. In terms of equipment, Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons PTA plant stopped on September 20 and planned to be repaired for about 5-6 days. The domestic PTA plant load was reduced to about 93%. Specifically:

Enterprise Name, Capacity, Device Dynamics
Jialong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. Parking overhaul on Aug. 2, restart pending
Chuaneng Chemistry 100 Sept. 18 Parking overhaul, scheduled for one week
Pengwei Petrochemical Parking Overhaul on September 19th, scheduled for one week
Huabin Petrochemical Stop on September 20, 140, planned maintenance for about 5-6 days
Hengli Dalian 220 is scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days in early October
Hanbang Petrochemical 60 plans to be overhauled in October
Honggang Petrochemical 150 plans to be overhauled on October 14
On the PX side, the closing price of Asia PXCFR in China on the 20th was US$804 per ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The price trend of domestic PX market remained at 6,600 yuan per ton. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50%, Fuhai Creative Aromatics Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhaul, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, other devices temporarily run stable, due to the new device put into operation PX market price trend remains weak and stable.

The fluctuation of raw material prices and the low peak season of traditional textile industry of “Jinjiu” resulted in a slight drop in polyester start-up load to about 88%. The production and marketing of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were general. Some mainstream factories increased their profits and reduced their quotations by 50-100 yuan/ton. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) was reported at 7750-8150 yuan/ton and DTY (150D/48F) was low. The projectile is 9150-9450 yuan/ton and the FDY (150D/96F) is 7800-8150 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that although the current PTA device load has been reduced, it is still at a high level. Although the downstream is approaching the end of the month, the mood of polyester factory’s stock-up is general, and there are expectations of National Day holidays in some terminal enterprises, and winter orders have not improved significantly. Overall, positive support is still insufficient, and PTA is expected to weaken in the short term.

Crude oil prices soared 14.7% the previous day and plunged 5.7% the following day. The crude oil market has opened a pattern of sharp rise and fall. How about the chemical industry downstream? On September 20, the Styrene Futures Contract and related rules were officially announced. As an important chemical product downstream of crude oil, the styrene market is undoubtedly facing tremendous fluctuation risk.

China is the largest styrene producer and consumer in the world. The large fluctuation of upstream price makes the situation of domestic styrene industry chain more severe, the profit of production enterprises declines, and the profit space of industry chain is compressed. It coincides with the upcoming listing of styrene, the 70th derivative product in China’s derivatives market on September 25. With questions, the Securities Times interviewed relevant styrene production and trading enterprises to understand the specific situation.

The fluctuation risk of chemical industry is increasing, and the average amplitude of styrene is more than 50%.

China is the largest styrene producer and consumer in the world. In 2018, there were 45 styrene production enterprises in China, with annual capacity of 9.26 million tons and output of 7.68 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the world.

“The fluctuation of crude oil price will drive the change of downstream styrene price.” Zhu Shunlin, general manager of Lishde Chemical Industry in Jiangsu Province, said that the price fluctuations of styrene in recent years were very obvious. From 2015 to 2018, the price fluctuations of styrene market were 68.4%, 55.7%, 48.8% and 66.7% respectively. Taking 2017 and 2018 as examples, the price difference between high and low points of styrene in 2017 is nearly 4000 yuan/ton, and that in 2018 is more than 6000 yuan/ton.

Zhu Shunlin admitted that the impact of crude oil fluctuations on the styrene industry is huge, most typical in 2008 and 2014. Crude oil prices plunged from $147 to more than $30 in 2008, causing many chemical companies to shut down production. The same was true in 2014, when crude oil fell sharply, styrene prices fell at the waist and the industry changed dramatically.

In addition to the upstream crude oil price, as a part of the chemical industry in the middle reaches, there are many factors affecting the price of styrene. Not only the upstream crude oil, ethylene, pure benzene and other varieties will be affected from the supply side, but also the downstream demand of EPS, PS and ABS products will have an impact on the price of styrene.

Especially, after 2019, domestic styrene ushered in a wave of capacity expansion, with more than 500,000 tons newly built, especially 1.2 million tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company and 720,000 tons of Hengli Petrochemical Company. From 2019 to 2023, the planned production units reached 2.7 million tons annually, and domestic supply tended to be excessive.

“Over the past four or five years, domestic styrene production capacity has been growing slowly, demand has been growing steadily and steadily, the industry is in a tight balance cycle, and the production enterprises have made high profits.” However, with the average output growth rate of 21% in the past three years, the current situation of the styrene industry chain is becoming more and more serious, the supply-side increment is large, the profits of the production enterprises are declining, and the profit-sharing space of the industry chain is compressed.

Wang Wenlin, futures analyst of Zhejiang Merchants, said that from the perspective of upstream raw materials, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply and the risk of styrene cost-side fluctuated significantly, while the domestic chemical industry, including styrene, put more production capacity into the industry itself, and the supply pressure was high, and the downstream demand slowed down obviously, resulting in the reduction of profits in the entire chemical industry. The demand of producers and traders to lock in prices to avoid risks or optimize industrial profits will be significantly increased.

There is a huge fluctuation space in the styrene market, and contract trading is the main part of spot trade. Once the two parties sign the contract, some traders will suffer heavy losses due to breach of contract. The market urgently needs effective hedging management tools to optimize the operation of the market.

Zhu Shunlin said that the mainstream pricing method of domestic styrene spot is to use Anxun’s quotation as a reference, mainly monthly settlement, mostly RMB quotation. In previous years, the contract price will refer to Jiangsu regional price and CFR China main port price. The data show that the production capacity of East China, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, accounts for about 45% of the total production capacity of the whole country, and is the largest area of styrene production in China. In 2018, the regional output exceeded 3 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of the total output of the whole country.

“The acquisition method of Anxun’s quotation, mainly through telephone consultation, market verification and other means, determines the daily quotation, and then calculates the average monthly price through average calculation.” Gu Sumin, manager of Shanghai Secco Petrochemical Business, said. It is understood that the current domestic styrene industry sales mode, basically based on monthly quotation. This is somewhat similar to the Prussian price on the spot iron ore market. Price is also determined by telephone inquiry, market verification and other means of daily quotation.

At the same time, in recent years, the price operation system of Huaxi Village’s electronic disc and paper goods exists in the domestic market of styrene and other chemical products, and many domestic private enterprises have tried to diversify their sales methods to meet the multi-level needs of customers by means of electronic trading and pre-sale products in spot market. Including Shandong Huaxing, Yuhuang Chemical and other enterprise e-commerce platforms have been put into commercial operation successively, selling products through commercial platforms, and even using competitive bidding in commercial platforms, adjusting prices automatically according to market supply and demand.

The interviewees pointed out that, compared with mature markets such as the United States, China is different in that there are 67 producers with a capacity of 56 million tons in the United States, while there are basically 3 million tons in Korea and Japan, that is, 35 producers. In China, there are about 40 manufacturers in the capacity range from 7 million tons to 9 million tons. In addition, the number of traders in chemical industries such as styrene is even larger.

A large number of market participants also provide rich soil for multi-level price operation. Drawing on the successful experience of other commodity sectors, it is clear that styrene also needs a futures market with large capacity and high credit to provide services for enterprises. “With the listing and operation of ethylene glycol, the customer base of styrene futures will be better, and enterprises involved in ethylene glycol trading have also done styrene.” Zhu Shunlin said.

It is noteworthy that in addition to the above background, styrene futures have been given a new role: styrene futures will be the 70th derivative on the commodity stage of our country, dedicating to the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China. Since the first standardized futures contract, aluminium futures, was listed in 1992, China’s derivatives market has been growing in variety and service areas, covering agriculture, energy, chemical industry, metals and finance, serving the whole chain of risk management and pricing trade from production to sales.

Behind the development of derivatives market is the increasing demand of real enterprises to manage the risk of price fluctuation since the market-oriented reform. “In September 2008, the price of styrene was around 11,000 yuan/ton, and then continued to fall within a month, with a minimum of about 4,800 yuan/ton. At that time, there were not many ways to manage risks, and the awareness of risk prevention and control was limited, so we could only sell the goods. The lower the price of the goods sold, the lower the price of the goods sold. Zhou Jun, deputy general manager of Nantong Chemical Light Industry Company, said frankly.

After the ups and downs of marketization, the real enterprises gradually realized that the management of market risks not only need to improve their management, but also need the help of derivatives. Take the chemical industry as an example, Nantong Chemical Light Industry has participated in methanol and ethylene glycol futures trading before, and is the ethylene glycol futures delivery warehouse, which is more in-depth in the aspect of the combination of futures and cash. Shanghai Secco, Yibin Tianyuan, Ningxia Inliter and other production and processing enterprises also participated in the trade of chemical futures such as LLDPE and PVC very early. Some enterprises’products have also become designated delivery brands of exchanges, playing an active role in the futures spot market.

With styrene futures as a new starting point, the derivatives market will serve the real economy more broadly. “The listing of styrene futures is not only conducive to the stable production of upstream enterprises, but also enables downstream enterprises to have good risk management tools to escort the smooth operation of enterprises. Similar to other chemical futures, it can derive pricing products such as option basis, enrich the means of enterprise sales and procurement, and ultimately serve the real economy. Purpose. ” Zhu Shunlin said.

Last weekend, a crude oil processing plant and oil field in Saudi Arabia were attacked by UAVs, which disrupted an average domestic production of 5.7 million barrels a day. This also directly led to the price of Brent crude oil soaring by nearly 12%, the highest one-day increase since the 1991 Gulf War. The surge of crude oil directly led to the rise of domestic chemical products. The main contract of MEG in 2001 touched the floor for two consecutive trading days. However, with Saudi Arabia declaring that all production capacity would be restored by the end of this month, oil prices quickly reversed nearly half of the previous increase, which directly contributed to the fall of MEG prices. Therefore, we believe that ethylene glycol will return to the fundamentals after the crude oil storm. First of all, at this stage, ethylene glycol production enterprises have returned to profitability. Secondly, the start-up rate will increase steadily after the National Day holiday, and a number of new devices at home and abroad will be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Finally, downstream polyester demand will enter the off-season. Therefore, the probability of gradual decline of MEG high is higher.

Operational Suggestions: Single Short Main Contract 2001

Ethylene glycol enterprises have returned to the later stage of profit competition intensified

Under the background of large-scale expansion of production, especially the centralized production of domestic integrated refining and chemical plants, the competition in the domestic ethylene glycol market will obviously intensify, which will lead to a long-term loss situation for the production enterprises, thus eliminating some backward production capacity and realizing full competition in the market. Since the end of March this year, the cash flow of naphtha-based MEG has been at a negative level for a long time, which has led to the decline of the start-up rate of domestic and foreign MEG manufacturers and the continuous reduction of domestic stocks in East China ports. However, with the recent sharp rise in the price of ethylene glycol, both naphtha-based MEG and ethylene-based MEG began to make profits, which will inevitably lead to the re-intensification of competition among the later processes.

Ethylene glycol start-up rate will gradually increase the new plant will be put into operation one after another

In the case of sustained losses, the start-up rate of domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises has gradually declined since the end of March, and the start-up load of coal-based ethylene glycol once fell below 50%. However, with the obvious improvement of profit situation, according to the current spot price of ethylene glycol, coal-based ethylene glycol enterprises have begun to make profits. Recently, a number of units have announced plans to restart or load up, such as 300,000 tons per year for Xinhang Energy, 200,000 tons per year for Henan Energy (Yongcheng) and 200,000 tons per year for Yangcheng Coal. In addition, after the National Day in Tianying, Xinjiang, Henan Energy (Anyang) and Henan Energy (Xinxiang) still have the start-up plan. The above-mentioned re-production devices can provide 80,000-100,000 tons/month of additional supply and output. At present, the start-up rate of domestic ethylene glycol enterprises has seen a bottom rebound. In addition to the restart of existing devices, the process of putting new devices into operation is also gradually advancing. The 750,000-ton MEGlobal plant in Texas, USA, is scheduled to start production in November, and its main destination is China. Zhejiang Petrochemical Co. Ltd. and Hengli Petrochemical Co. Ltd. are expected to put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year. The domestic production capacity of ethylene glycol will increase rapidly, and the supply pressure can not be ignored.

Downstream polyester demand will weaken after the seasonal peak season

According to the traditional consumption habits, September and October are the seasonal peak season of domestic polyester demand. Especially in the case of better production profits of early polyester enterprises, the start-up load of enterprises remains high, but the overall level is lower than the same period last year and it is difficult to improve again in the near future. More importantly, with the recent rise in PTA and MEG prices of raw materials, the profits of polyester enterprises have declined significantly, which may lead to an earlier weakening of their demand.

Price trends:

Since September, the domestic caustic soda market has rebounded, and the atmosphere of price increase is strong. So far, it has seen the largest increase this year, with an overall line of 150-300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business associations in Shandong, the price of caustic soda in Shandong is on the whole going, up to 850 yuan per ton in September, up by 20.57%.

Products: At present, caustic soda in most areas is still on the upward trend. Manufacturers stop production and limit production more, mainstream factories have overall low inventory. For business associations, 32% of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is above 840 yuan/ton, 50% of ionic membrane caustic soda mainstream transaction price rises to 1410-1430 yuan/ton; for Jiangsu, 200 yuan/ton or so this month, 3. The mainstream transaction price of 2% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 900-950 yuan/ton, and that of 50% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 1450-1500 yuan/ton. This month, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali purchased by Weiqiao has risen by 100 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton, which has a great impact on the local area.

Up to now, the closing of the national market offers are as follows:

region   Specifications   offer    Ups and downs
32% Ionic Membrane Base 950+150 in Hebei Province
32% ionic membrane base 950 + 80 in Northeast China
32% ionic membrane base 850 + 180 in Shandong area
32% ionic membrane base 920 + 200 in Jiangsu area
32% ionic membrane base 980 + 250 in Zhejiang area
32% ionic membrane alkali 900 + 180 in Anhui area
Since September, the caustic soda market has gone up a large margin, the main reasons are as follows:

1. The National Day is approaching. There are many rumors that the chlor-alkali industry in North China is going to stop work. At present, Shandong has limited production, no stock of industrial caustic soda is not guaranteed, and more enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are shut down. After the 25th, the liquid chlorine embargo in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and North China, as well as downstream and traders, will be imposed. In order to prevent the alkali plant from being restricted by liquid chlorine embargo, goods were taken one after another.

2. After the notification of the liquid chlorine embargo which began on September 7 in Jiangsu, the atmosphere of liquid chlorine became tense, and the Anbang load dropped to 30%. It is known that some of the liquid chlorine in Jiangsu has also been sent to Anhui and Zhejiang outside the province. The news of the liquid chlorine embargo is also one of the factors stimulating the increase in alkali prices.

3. The purchase price of Weiqiao alumina has been stable for more than five months. The manufacturers have increased retail prices on National Day to stimulate Weiqiao’s price increase, and the main factories in Shandong Province are not satisfied with the start of construction after the early typhoon. The purchase support of Weiqiao alumina and the inventory have been in a controllable level. After the increase of the purchase price of Weiqiao, the credit of the traders has been greatly boosted. Heart.

Business analysts believe that the market price of liquid alkali in North China will maintain a high level before National Day, and the market performance in East China and Henan is also relatively good, while the domestic market of liquid chlorine will mostly maintain a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong province 840-880 yuan/ton. But in October, the environmental protection inspection will be strengthened, the whole industrial chain of the manufacturer will be restricted, the downstream parts of the north and the main alumina will also face production reduction, a large number of sea alkali will arrive in the South during the National Day, low-cost sea alkali will stimulate the southern liquid alkali market, the national market after the National Day or will have a greater impact in the future. End price may not be guaranteed.

Price Trend

In September, the domestic liquefied natural gas market improved due to the northwest gas limit, and with the end of the 10-day gas limit, the price of LNG resumed its decline. The average price of domestic LNG market on the 10th day was 3030 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 19th day was 2900 yuan/ton. Within ten days, the price fell by 4.29%, 35.56% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: According to the data of business associations, as of September 19, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2950 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2850 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3000 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is 2300 yuan/ton, that of Qinshui New Olympics LNG is 3150 yuan/ton, that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan LNG Co., Ltd. is 2900 yuan/ton, and that of Qinghua Energy Group of Xinjiang is 2500 yuan/ton. LNG Company Limited is priced at 2900 yuan per ton. Local liquid prices have fallen to low levels.

Market analysis: In recent ten days, the domestic LNG market has continuously lowered prices. The northwest gas limit ended on September 10, and the market has resumed normal supply. Major manufacturers are preparing for the pre-festival warehouse and lowering the liquid price one after another. Under the guidance of downstream demand, in order to alleviate the pressure of shipment, liquid factories have sought a favorable price reduction. Individual factories have made great efforts to reduce the price, with partial inverted shipment phenomenon. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, transportation was blocked, and shipments from liquid factories in some areas were not smooth and prices were continuously lowered. After the holidays, the restrictions on high-speed and dangerous chemicals transportation were lifted, the demand situation was still unclear, the terminal demand was not improved, the upstream bid was difficult, and the liquid factory continued to reduce the price in order to maintain normal shipment. At present, the downstream demand is flat, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply exceeds demand situation is still strong, and with the rising import LNG prices, it will bring certain benefits to domestic LNG. In addition, the upstream factories are forced to reduce production costs, and the wait-and-see mentality is growing. LNG stops falling and returns to stability, and the trend is still weak.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising annually. The top three commodities were gasoline (1.24%), methanol (1.06%) and diesel (0.98%). There are seven kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-2.95%), liquefied natural gas (-2.30%) and WTI crude oil (-1.36%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.29%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied Natural Gas analysts of business associations believe that the current market demand is inadequate. With the end of the Northwest Gas Limitation, the situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the LNG market returns to normal. In addition, near the National Day, demand in some areas is more reduced, or it may affect liquid prices. LNG prices are expected to be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffins has risen continuously since September. On September 4, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4933 yuan/ton, and on September 19, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 5200 yuan/ton. The half-month price rose by 5.41%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the ex-factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in South China is 4600-5300 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in North China is 4000-5500 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in East China is about 5000 yuan/ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class products in Central China is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton, and that of Northeast China is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product is 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The quotation for the first grade chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The northwest region chlorinated paraffin 52 first-class product ex-factory quotation is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton.

Crude oil: On September 18, WTI crude oil futures fell $1.23, or 2.07%, to $58.11 a barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell $0.95, or 1.47%, to $63.60 a barrel. China’s main SC crude oil futures contract was about 1911 yuan 473.6 yuan per barrel, down 10.5 yuan.

Industry chain: Recently, the crude oil market has risen sharply before falling, and the focus of gravity has begun to fall. The liquid wax market is short of resources, stable operation, stable shipment of manufacturers, small adjustments in the market price range. The liquid chlorine market operates at a high level, and some areas maintain high prices and the market rises. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins has slightly improved, and stocks have increased in some areas.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin business associations believe that due to the recent increase in raw material costs, the shortage of chlorinated paraffin supply, the National Day environmental protection and production restrictions, manufacturers began to actively stock up, chlorinated paraffin prices rose in stages. It is expected that chlorinated paraffin prices will fluctuate in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market has risen sharply. As of September 18, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2184 yuan/ton, which was 1.80% lower than that of the previous year and 32.25% lower than that of the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol-to-olefins, the methanol market has a positive delivery atmosphere, smooth shipment of mainland enterprises, and the focus of market negotiation has been continuously raised. Inventory in Northwest China is low and prices are high; trading around Bohai Sea area is optimistic and has risen sharply; Huaihai area has a positive mentality and continues to rise; shipments in central China are smooth and keep up with the increase; futures are high and volatile, and port prices are rising. At present, Shanxi, Mongolia and other upstream enterprises can ship goods temporarily, the enterprise inventory pressure is not large, the mentality performance is strong.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: The domestic formaldehyde market is strong and upward, boosted by the recent cost side, the formaldehyde industry’s offer rises, downstream purchasing is on demand, and the trading atmosphere is still acceptable, but the current raw material port market has fallen, the growth rate of the mainland has also narrowed, the cost side support has been slightly loosened, short-term domestic formaldehyde Market or high-level consolidation.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is running steadily for the time being. At present, the inventory level of most acetic acid factories is not high, and most of them are stable prices. However, the industry has a high rate of start-up, users just need to take delivery of goods, under the pressure of weak spot turnover, the mindset of the industry is negative. In addition, during the National Day holiday, highway transportation is limited, and some factories are actively delivering goods to reduce inventory. The mindset of the operators is weak, and the short-term market is expected to be weak.

Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether market prices continue to rise, the market trading atmosphere is good. The market price continued to rise as a whole. Although crude oil fell slightly, its impact on the market continued. Businessmen’s psychology of speculation remained unchanged. Although the trend of gas market was weak, the trend of growth remained firm. The price of methanol in North China rose again by about 200 yuan/ton. With this good support, the market of dimethyl ether expanded further. Domestic price difference is not big, manufacturers reflect that the equipment is in full load status recently, shipment is smooth, inventory pressure is not large. It is expected that short-term domestic dimethyl ether market price increases will be narrowed.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: At present, the market is operating in a positive atmosphere, manufacturers ship smoothly, and the mindset of the operators is strong. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to rise, but in the latter part, they still need to pay attention to the resistance of downstream enterprises to high-end sources, and suggest cautious operation.

On September 18, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 106.14, up 1.75 points from yesterday, down 10.37% from 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and up 37.18% from 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices rose on the 16th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants operated smoothly. Supported by the rising price of upstream raw material nitric acid, ammonium nitrate market prices rose, ammonium nitrate manufacturers shipment market was general, downstream on-demand procurement, combined with environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China was still shut down a lot. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the prices on the site have risen slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, the mainstream in Shandong is 2000-2100 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 1850-2000 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is small. The amplitude is higher.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has risen sharply. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu province ranged from 1950 to 2000 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 500 yuan/ton. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1900-2000 yuan per ton, the price rose. Shandong manufacturers quoted 1900-2050 yuan/ton, the price trend rose. The situation of nitric acid shipment has improved, and the rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price of ammonium nitrate has gone up; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is rising, and the market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton, which is affected by the lower cost in the upstream, together with the inventory pressure of most manufacturers. Compared with the previous period, some units have been restarted and local ammonia supply has increased in the region. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton and 2500-2800 yuan/ton in Northwest China. The rising price of liquid ammonia is related to the downstream ammonium nitrate Market belt. To some extent, the market price of ammonium nitrate has gone up. In recent years, the market of the downstream civil explosion industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers have high stocks. However, the price of raw materials market has risen, and the market of ammonium nitrate has generally risen by a limited margin due to the market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market prices have risen sharply, downstream demand is still at a low level, expected to be affected by raw material support in the latter part of the ammonium nitrate market prices or will rise slightly.

I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36 weeks of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices. The top three commodities were PS (4.55%), PA6 (2.90%) and EPS (2.23%). There are five kinds of products that have declined annually. The first three products are PA66 (-1.05%), PET (-0.70%) and styrene-butadiene rubber (-0.47%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.64%. Among them, the natural rubber ring decreased by 0.34% compared with the previous year, and increased by 2.70%.

II. Commodity Index

The natural rubber commodity index on September 15 was 39.19, down 1.78 points from yesterday, down 60.81% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 39.22% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. On August 12th, Tianjiao 20 rubber was listed on the market in the last period of energy. Full latex futures continued to be weak. The highest price was 10,624 yuan/ton on the 31st day, the lowest was 10,260 yuan/ton on the 2nd day, and the maximum monthly amplitude was 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, the first half of August showed an incomplete trend of “W” and the second half showed a trend of “V”, which was generally small in the current month. Amplitude shocks, weak market. Enter September, the first week of the market all the way up, Shanghai glue (whole milk) weekend slightly callback, the second week of the market shock downward; 20 glue in the first week of the highest price 10450, the largest increase of 3.91%, near the weekend callback, the second week of vulnerable shock, the highest weekly price 10315, the lowest 10115, the closing week 10175; According to business club (100ppi.com) monitoring Data show that in 17 years, the mainstream quotation of SCRWF in East China was 10 624 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 1 1040 yuan/ton on the 15th day, with an increase of 3.92% in the first half of the month.

IV. Influencing factors

(1) Analysis of industrial factors

Rubber production: In September, the main production area of natural rubber is still a high-yield period, and the output growth is obvious. Rainfall weather in the main production area in China affects rubber cutting to a certain extent. Statistics show that in general, rubber production in Banna will be reduced by 15%-20% in 2019. Many private factories are short of raw materials to purchase. The low price of raw materials also hampers the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber. In some cases, the phenomenon of less cutting and discarding cutting is observed.

Import and Export: China: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 538,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2019, down 2.71% annually and 11.8% year-on-year. From January to August, the total import volume was 4.166 million tons, down 7.7% from 4.514 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of the amount, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber in August amounted to 837 million US dollars, down 13.2% from the same period last year.

Inventory: Domestic Tianguo stock is still at a high level. As of September 13, 2019, natural rubber stock in the previous period was 471956 (5127) tons and warehouse receipt was 427400 (5210) tons.

Demand: Statistical data show that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in China from January to July totaled 732,300 vehicles, down 2% from the same period last year. It is expected that the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in the second half of the year will still fall by 5% to 10%. Passenger car sales in August were 1.65 million, down 7.7% from a year earlier, while automobile sales were 1.96 million, down 6.9% from a year earlier. In July, China exported 46.51 million new pneumatic rubber tires, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year, and the export amount reached 9.589 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the same period last year. In terms of export situation, from January to July, China’s tire export volume was 295 million, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year, and the export amount was 59.923 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. The Sino-US trade war is still grim, and China’s tire exports are still affected.

Downstream: China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019. The total tire output in January-June was 403.745 million, down 1% from the same period last year. In September, the start-up of tire enterprises in China is still affected, and will improve after the 11th National Day. As of September 13, 2019, the total tire start-up load of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 71.81%, which was 0.15 percentage points higher than the previous period and 1.76 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Semi-steel tire start-up load of domestic tire enterprises was 67.11%, which was 0.20 percentage points higher than the previous period and 3.85 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Start-up high for holidays to reduce the rate of start-up. Tire factories have normal inventory and distributors have high inventory.

(2) Analysis of macro-factors

1. Relaxation of automobile consumption: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing automobile purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents to prohibit the introduction of new automobiles everywhere. Vehicle purchase restrictions. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.

2. Renminbi depreciation leads to cost increase: At present, the formula for calculating the import cost of natural latex is as follows: (US dollar shipping price * exchange rate + tariff)* (1 + 13%) + customs declaration and other miscellaneous charges, value-added tax 13%. Renminbi depreciation increases the import cost, the exchange rate depreciates from 6.9 to 7.2, and the import cost is about 400 yuan/ton. The superimposed cost of natural quotation increased and the price increased.

3. Statistical data declined: PMI of manufacturing industry declined in August, production, orders, inventory and price index were weak, and there was downward pressure on economic operation. The renewed escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has impacted the development expectations of manufacturing industry. At the same time, the high temperature and rainy weather have a certain impact on the prosperity of manufacturing industry, the most important of which is the insufficient domestic demand. Facing the pressure of weakening demand, the analysis holds that on the one hand, we should expand effective domestic demand and further strengthen the stability of infrastructure construction; on the other hand, we should promote tax reduction and fee reduction, focus on reducing the operating costs of manufacturing enterprises, promote the expected improvement of production and investment of enterprises, and boost the confidence of manufacturing industry.

4. The central bank lowered its benchmark to promote liquidity: On the afternoon of September 6, the central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve ratio of financial institutions on September 16. The release of funds could reach about 900 billion yuan. The commodity sector, especially commodities dominated by industrial attributes, may be vulnerable to such measures as benchmarking.

V. Related Products

Business association data showed that the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on September 15 was 34.02, which was unchanged from yesterday, down 66.78% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), up 43.30% from the low of 23.74 points on February 04, 2015, and 34.36 on September 15, which was unchanged from yesterday and 103.60 points from the peak of the cycle. (2011-09-08) decreased by 66.83%, up 20.94% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

VI. Future Market Forecast

According to the natural rubber analyst of the business association, September is the traditional consumption peak season. Under the combined effect of macroeconomic, industry development, downstream demand, import and export and other factors, natural rubber once continuously increased for four days. Under the condition of high inventory, the price does not have the conditions to continue to rise. Normal callback. The analysis shows that the price will continue to oscillate due to the recent comprehensive factors. Construction may be affected before the Eleventh holiday. However, considering the seasonal consumption characteristics in autumn and the rising downstream starting rate after the holiday, the peak consumption season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” deserves our attention.