Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com), on September 23, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, and on September 29, 16333.33 yuan/ton. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: It is known that in mid-September, the main price of acrylonitrile in the upper reaches was about 12300 yuan/ton, while in the latter part, the main price was raised by 200 yuan/ton on 24th, and the current main price was 12 500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively stable. Gongyi City, one of the main domestic production areas, began to resume production in the late ten days, and the supply of goods has gradually returned to normal.

Industry: Since late July, the intermittent shutdown has basically ended. Manufacturers have resumed production one after another. The shutdown cycle has returned. In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “shutdown notice” recently. The notice requires that: according to the city’s environmental pollution situation and future pollution. Weather situation analysis, the municipal fortification office requires all deep management enterprises to stop production before acceptance, according to the fortification office scheduling or acceptance can be returned to production. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. After the National Games on 8 September, the local factories did not receive the notice of start-up immediately, and strict environmental protection inspection was in progress. In late April and September, Gongyi local factories began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that the impact of environmental protection renovation, National Games and National Day on water treatment plants in Gongyi District, Henan Province, one of the main production areas, has weakened. Local manufacturers have resumed construction in the latter half of the year. Inventory shortages have been solved one after another. It is expected that after the 11th Golden Week, “gold, nine silver and ten” will be achieved. The traditional peak season effect will be released in October.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 1810.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1813.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.18%, down 11.11% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.34 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong rose slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1790 yuan/ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation increased by 10 yuan/ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan/ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policy and National Day security. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products have risen or fallen: natural gas prices have fallen considerably, the quotation fell from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2793.33 at the end of the week, a decline of 3.12%, a decline of 34.79% compared with the same period last year; liquid ammonia prices have risen slightly this week, from 3226.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3286.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.86%, compared with the same period last year. It fell 6.67%. Urea cost support is general. Melamine quotation downstream this week is temporarily stable. Purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the National Day, the urea market in Shandong Province has risen sharply. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will rise mainly after the National Day.

Price Trend

The reference price of caprolactam on September 27 was 12600.00, up 4.71% compared with September 1 (12033.33), according to the business association’s list. On September 27, the caprolactam commodity index was 63.37, which was 36.63% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2017-03-02), and 8.96% higher than the 58.16 point on May 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Up to September 27, Shandong Luxi Chemical Caprolactam liquid price 12300 yuan/ton, cash out of the factory, the first and second phase of the plant normal start-up operation, the actual transaction can be negotiated; Hubei Sanning caprolactam liquid quoted 12900 yuan/ton, the contract is the main, 140,000 tons of caprolactam plant normal operation. Fujian Tianchen caprolactam liquid price is 12700 yuan/ton, the plant is in normal operation, acceptance delivery. Domestic caprolactam start-up rate is stable.

Industry chain: Upstream cyclohexanone weak finishing, price stability, cost support is limited. On September 27, the reference price of cyclohexanone was 9000.00, which was 10.66% higher than that on September 1 (8133.33). The downstream PA6 market atmosphere is cold and insufficient. On September 27, the reference price of PA6 was 14566.67, up 6.72% compared with September 1 (13650.00).

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on September 26, 2019, there were 8 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector. The top three commodities were DMF (3.52%), OX (2.99%) and aggregated MDI (2.35%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-13.64%), dichloromethane (-4.08%) and propylene oxide (-1.61%). The average daily rise and fall was -0.13%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association caprolactam believe that: the price of raw materials in the upstream began to fall, the domestic spot supply of caprolactam was small, the pressure of environmental protection in the North increased, the market of PA6 was delayed, and the price of caprolactam was firm before the festival. It is expected that caprolactam will be stable after the festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw materials and terminals.

With the devaluation of RMB, zero tariff on exports and the initiative of “One Belt and One Road”, the export quantity of compound fertilizer in China has increased rapidly this year, especially the export of ternary compound fertilizer. It is noteworthy that with the development of domestic process technology and the improvement of product quality, the import quantity of ternary compound fertilizer in China has declined.

Customs statistics show that the export volume of ternary compound fertilizer in China reached 5447,000 tons in January-July 2019, an increase of 214% over the same period last year, and the monthly average price in January-July was 318 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27.89% over the same period last year. Judging from the specific months, the number of July only declined compared with the same period last year, while the number of other months increased compared with the same period last year, with an increase of 623% in February. From the point of view of export areas, China’s ternary compound fertilizer mainly exports to 92 countries and regions such as Myanmar and the Philippines, of which the largest number is exported to Myanmar, followed by the Philippines, which accounts for about 80% of the total export volume.

In addition to the increase in ternary compound fertilizer exports, the export of binary compound fertilizer has also increased slightly this year. According to customs statistics, from January to July 2019, the export volume of binary compound fertilizer reached 752,900 tons, an increase of 35.98% over the same period last year. From the point of view of export areas, China’s binary compound fertilizer mainly exports to 34 countries and regions such as the Philippines and Brazil, among which the top 10 countries account for 92.25% of the total export volume.

Xu Shuxian, a fertilizer analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that this year’s substantial increase in the export of compound fertilizers is mainly supported by zero tariffs. In mid-December 2018, in order to meet the needs of the reform of the export management system and promote the structural adjustment, quality improvement and efficiency of the energy and resources industry, it was decided that 94 commodities such as fertilizer and apatite would no longer be subject to export tariffs as of January 1, 2019. That is to say, from January 1, 2019, China has implemented zero tariff policy for the export of compound fertilizers, both binary and ternary.

“Although China’s compound fertilizer production capacity is excessive, there are still some parts that need to be imported, especially high-end ternary compound fertilizer, with an annual import volume of about 1 million tons. However, in recent years, with the development of new fertilizers and the improvement of production technology, imports have a downward trend. “Xu Shuxian said. According to customs statistics, the total import volume of ternary compound fertilizer in China was 875,000 tons from January to July 2019, down 1.69% from the same period last year, and the average monthly export price was 487 US dollars/ton, down 6.80% from last year’s average monthly price. In January, April and June alone, compared with the same period last year, there was an increase, while in other months, there was a decrease of 50% in July.

From the point of view of source countries, the import of ternary compound fertilizer in China mainly comes from 30 countries and regions, such as Norway, Russian Federation, Belgium and Finland. Norway, Russian Federation, Belgium and Finland are still the main sources of ternary compound fertilizer import in China. According to statistical data, from January to July 2019, China imported 308,200 tons of ternary compound fertilizer from Norway, accounting for 35.22% of the total import; from January to July, 207,000 tons of ternary compound fertilizer from the Russian Federation, accounting for 23.68% of the total import; and from Belgium and Finland, the import volume was 171,300 tons and 107,200 tons, accounting for the proportion. 19.57% and 12.24% respectively.

Xu Shuxian believes that, on the whole, export growth and import decline are the trend of compound hypertrophy, which is not only conducive to alleviating domestic excess capacity and supporting domestic supply, but also conducive to improving the international status and voice of Chinese compound fertilizer and achieving the goal of “going out”.

Price trends:

According to the data of the business associations’big list, the spot price of ABS was stable in late September, and the domestic market was adjusted at a high level. As of September 26, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was around 13500.00 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from last week.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: ABS upstream, since September, styrene trend is strong, but this week’s prices show a state of consolidation after rising, the market spot supply situation is sufficient, the mainstream reservoir area of East China styrene inventory is sufficient, domestic maintenance of styrene factories gradually restored supply. The supply of styrene in the market is saturated, while the enthusiasm of downstream picking up goods is reduced, and the price of high-end products is gradually falling, which leads to the price of domestic styrene from rising to falling. The recent stock holding and production links in the market are still profitable. After rapid growth, there is no support, and the market has fallen back and sorted out.

The spot market of semi-acrylonitrile related products continued to run at a high bid price before September. On the supply side, the stock of the industry is still at a low level. It will take some time for the new production line to export the spot goods, and the supply of spot resources in the market is still tight. Downstream traders maintain a cautious attitude, in which the acrylic fiber factory is not high start-up rate, replenishment to maintain just in need. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile quotation will present a high overall trend in the near future.

Butadiene recently quoted slightly adjusted, the domestic market entrusted atmosphere is weak, downstream just need to be the main, buyers and sellers cautious operation. On the supply side, Northeast factories continue to export goods, and the market maintains a wait-and-see attitude toward high-priced goods; ABS is generally supported, and near the season change, many areas in Beijing and Tianjin are strictly checking environmental protection, reducing plant start-up rate leads to a reduction in supply. The supplier’s willingness to bid up is obvious, but the downstream demand is weakening compared with the first half of the month. Buyers just need to replenish their positions. In recent years, domestic ABS price increases have weakened and prices have been adjusted.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that in late September, the ABS market has weakened, spot prices of various brands have risen and fallen, and some areas have declined. On the cost side, upstream three materials support the cost side generally. Although strict inspection of environmental protection affects the plant start-up rate and thus affects the supply, downstream demand is weaker than before, and on-site trading atmosphere is cautious. It is expected that ABS in China will show a high adjustment trend in the near future.

I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the domestic copper price fell slightly today. The average domestic spot copper price was 47,245 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from 47,255 yuan/ton in the previous trading day, down 1.9% from the beginning of the year and down 3.13% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

The pre-closing shock in LME Tongya fell to $5772, or 0.28%. Shanghai copper’s main force fell to 47120 yuan in early morning pressure, an increase of 0.26%. As the world’s economic growth slows down, industrial demand remains depressed and copper prices remain weak. On the market side, downstream consumption is weak, TRADERS’turnover is cool, and the overall market turnover is low.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of the Business Association believe that short-term National Day will affect the shutdown of copper smelters in the north, which will support copper prices below. And in mines, supply has been tight. Copper price rises and falls, the key is to see whether the late demand has warmed up.

Price Trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5066.67 yuan/ton on September 01 and 5466.67 yuan/ton on September 26, up by 7.89% compared with the same period last year, up by 22.85%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In September, the price of yellow phosphorus at raw material end has returned to a high level. Spot markets around the world are very tight. The price of thermo-process phosphoric acid market is well supported by raw material end, and the price continues to rise. As of September 26, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is around 5466.67 yuan/ton. Hubei Xingfa Group quotes 5000 yuan/ton, Wengfudazhou 5200 yuan/ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quotes 5400 yuan/ton, Guangxi Mingli Group quotes 6000 yuan/ton, Qianrui Chemical quotes 4600 yuan/ton, Sichuan Kanglong Chemical quotes 5000 yuan/ton, Kunming South Yunnan industry and trade quoted 6000 yuan/ton. Price increases vary from place to place.

In September, the raw material yellow phosphorus market was not stable, and the conductive phosphoric acid Market fluctuated. The main reason for this round of increase is the influence of “Three Phosphorus Regulation” on yellow phosphorus supply. Spot supply is on the tight side, and demand in the lower reaches has improved slightly. Phosphoric acid enterprises are under pressure to increase their offer. But phosphoric acid enterprises mostly just need to purchase, cautious wait-and-see mentality is rising, individual enterprises are short of supply, suspend quotation, terminal market just needs limited, high price acceptance is limited, actual trading is general. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the supply of yellow phosphorus market increased slightly, and the price remained at a high level. Phosphoric acid enterprises just needed to purchase, and the price rose. With the National Day approaching, the supply of phosphoric acid enterprises is mainly in the downstream before the festival. Phosphoric acid enterprises are well supported by the raw material end, and the willingness to bid is obvious. The quotations of mainstream enterprises have increased in varying degrees. At present, the pre-Festival delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises is full, and a small amount of terminal replenishment is still cautious.

Industry chain: In recent years, the price quotation in the mainstream areas of the phosphate ore market continues to be stable, and the demand is weak. At this stage, most of the mining enterprises mainly sell orders in the early stage, the market transaction atmosphere is light. Before the National Day, a small number of mining enterprises have begun to stop production, mostly selling stocks, reducing production and maintaining stability. Price. The yellow phosphorus market has recently started some installations in Yunnan and Guizhou, with an increase in spot supply, a strong sense of wait-and-see among enterprises, the basic end of stockpiling before National Day, weak demand of phosphoric acid enterprises and stable market.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), the price of phosphorus chemical industry rose and fell in two kinds of commodities, fell in a total of 0 kinds of commodities, and rose and fell in three kinds of commodities. The main commodities that rose were phosphoric acid (2.53%) and yellow phosphorus (1.77%) with an average increase or decrease of 0.86% this week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the current pre-Festival delivery plan of phosphoric acid enterprises is full, with a small amount of replenishment. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will be mainly inventory in the short term.

Price Trend

Lead market (09.16-09.20) fell this week. The average price in domestic market was 17362.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 16862.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The weekly decline was 2.88%.

On September 20, the lead commodity index was 102.62, up 0.26 points from yesterday, down 23.42% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 37.51% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week spot lead market and Shanghai lead trend all the way down, the mainstream trading range is 16775-17400 yuan/ton, spot cumulative weekly decline of about 500 yuan/ton. The market is willing to ship goods. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead brands will be 20 yuan per ton of water discount to 20 yuan per ton for 1910 contract. The downstream mentality of prudent on-demand purchasing, trading is still acceptable, mostly long single-based, light bulk single transactions, market brand lead is Jinsha, South, Wanyang, Mulu, etc.

Domestic events:

ILZSG: The global lead shortage in July was 4,200 tons: London, September 18, 2008. According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global lead supply gap narrowed to 4,200 tons in July and 13,100 tons in June. In the first seven months of 2019, the global lead supply gap expanded to 47,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 35,000 tons in the same period last year.

WBMS: The global lead supply gap in January-July 2019 is 177,000 tons: London, September 18, 2019. According to data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global lead supply gap in January-July 2019 is 177,000 tons and that in 2018 is 265,000 tons. By the end of July, the total stock was 27,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to July 2019, global refined lead production (primary and recycled) was 7.329 million tons, an increase of 11.70% over the same period last year. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 3.577 million tons, an increase of 782,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 48% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States fell by 11,000 tons from January to July 2019. In July 2019, the output of refined lead was 105.27 million tons and the consumption was 105.74 million tons.

Non-ferrous industries: This week, the US dollar index shook in the high range of 98.2-98.6, the British break-off event further fermented the pound plunge, the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a partial hawk, the US dollar high was stable, triggering market fears about the weakening of the global economy; Saudi Arabia said after the attack that it would soon resume production, crude oil rushed back to high. The basic metals fall accordingly.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week is the last trading week before the National Day holiday, and there are long orders delivered in the first half of the week. With the approaching week, the pre-holiday hedging mood will gradually increase. Whether spot or futures, hedging and bagging will be the main safety, and the market will be characterized by rising first and then falling.

Saudi oil fields and refinery facilities were attacked

A few days ago, market sources said that after the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities on September 14, concerns about the supply of raw materials in the Asian olefin and polymer markets had become increasingly apparent.

Prince Salman, Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister, said that on the morning of September 14, a drone attack on Abqaiq oil processing facility and Khurais Oilfield by Saudi Arabian Oil Corporation (Saudi Amy) resulted in a reduction of about 5.7 million barrels a day, equivalent to half of the company’s capacity.

Saudi Petrochemical Raw Material Outage

A number of Saudi petrochemical companies announced the interruption of raw material supply after the attack. These petrochemical companies are: Sipchem, Advanced Petrochemical Company, Tasnee, Yansab, Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company and SABIC. The petrochemical companies announced a 30% to 50% disruption in raw material supply.

Saudi Arabia is a major player in the global ethylene and ethylene derivatives market, because most petrochemical enterprises in the country use ethane as the main raw material, and ethylene production is high.

Data show that Saudi Arabia’s annual ethylene production capacity is about 17.5 million tons, accounting for about 9% of global total production. Saudi Arabia’s total annual production capacity of polyethylene is about 9 million tons, accounting for about 8% of global production capacity.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia is also a major methanol exporter in Asia, with methanol production capacity of 6.55 million tons per year. According to Chinese customs statistics, Saudi Arabia exported about 795493 tons of methanol to China in 2018, accounting for 11% of China’s total methanol imports.

Ethylene and Propylene Price Rising

An ethylene trader believes that the popularity of the Asian ethylene market will rise, but it is not yet clear how far it will rise. Some market sources also said that the Malaysian Border Garland Refinery and Petrochemical Company expects to restart naphtha-based steam cracking units in a few weeks, which may offset to some extent the negative impact of the attack on Saudi oil fields.

Standard & Poor’s Global Prussian Energy Information Company has previously said that Biancalan Refinery and Petrochemical Company plans to restart the cracking unit in the RAPID Refinery-Petrochemical Complex in Johor in mid-September. The cracking unit produces 1.2 million tons of ethylene annually.

Among the three main olefin products, propylene is most susceptible to interruptions in crude oil and refinery operations, as propylene is produced by fluidized catalytic cracking units in refineries. Meanwhile, propylene sellers are cautious. “So far, we’re watching, but prices are bound to rise,” said a Japanese trader.

Pay close attention to naphtha Market

Market participants are paying close attention to the naphtha market, as a bull market is expected for naphtha, which may reduce the already weak profit margin of the petrochemical industry.

A naphtha trader said: “The reason for the surge in naphtha prices last Monday morning is that a lot of naphtha in Asia comes from the Middle East.” According to Prussian Energy Information, the average Prussian naphtha swap was more than $500 per ton last Monday.

According to market participants, Saudi Arabian Ami Trading Company exports 50,000 to 75,000 tons of naphtha to the Northeast Asian market every month from Yanbu Petrochemical Company, located on the Red Coast of Saudi Arabia. In addition, Saudi Arabia Amy Trading Company also exports naphtha directly from Labige Petrochemical to Northeast Asia.

Saudi Arabia is restoring production capacity, the United States also said it would consider putting strategic reserves in the future, after the multi-factor is digested, under the influence of weakening consumption, futures prices will come down under pressure.

During the Mid-Autumn Festival, armed air strikes on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia led to a re-crisis in the Middle East. Affected by this, crude oil futures prices at home and abroad fluctuated sharply last week. Among them, WTI oil prices in the United States once soared to $63.38 per barrel, and Brent oil prices rose back to $68.31 per barrel, the biggest one-day fluctuation in 28 years.

It is no longer profitable to speculate about Saudi Arabia’s failure to supply

Yemen’s Hussein armed forces attacked two important oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia using UAVs, which belonged to the “black swan” incident in the market. The subsequent damage to Saudi output of 5.7 million barrels per day was digested in a one-time manner in the trend of international oil prices soaring in early Monday morning. In terms of follow-up development, in response to short-term global supply shortages, the Saudi energy minister said that Amy was trying to restore production, restoring 1.9 million barrels per day production on September 16, or one third of the reduction, and restoring the remaining two-thirds of the damaged production before the end of September. During the recovery period, Saudi Arabia will compensate its customers through existing reserves to ensure that global supply will not be interrupted. Despite the stabilizing elements of the above remarks, as the world’s largest oil producer, it has ample strength to convince most investors that it would be unprofitable to continue speculating about the disruption of Saudi Arabia’s supply. Perhaps some people think that the armed attack on Saudi Arabia by Yemen Hussein was in retaliation for its interference in the Yemeni civil war. At the same time, the figure of Iran shines behind the armed Hussein. The “proxy” war reflects the deepening political game between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, which means that similar incidents will happen in the future. However, the author believes that Saudi Arabia, which has experienced a painful lesson, will inevitably improve its defensive capability and prevent the occurrence of the second crisis.

The United States has more than one billion barrels of reserves

The U.S. crude oil reserves are divided into government strategic reserves and commercial reserves. As of the week ending September 13, 2019, the U.S. strategic reserves were about 645 million barrels, while commercial inventories exceeded 417 million barrels, totaling 1.062 billion barrels. It is understood that only the President of the United States has the right to use strategic reserves. Within 15 days after the announcement, strategic reserves of crude oil must enter the market with an output capacity of 4.1 million to 4.4 million barrels per day. Referring to the case of U.S. strategic reserve during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, the international crude oil price dropped from $36.73 per barrel to $18.35 per barrel in the context of the joint use of crude oil reserves by the United States and the International Energy Agency. At that time, it was not expected that the international oil price would rise sharply. After the attack on Saudi Arabia, US President Trump immediately said that he wanted to release strategic reserves and that the emergency response mechanism was more timely and accurate than the previous one. There is reason to believe that the top of this oil price rise will occur earlier than in 1990.

The market will enter the accumulation stage

After the end of Labor Day in early September, the summer peak of driving oil in North America will also end, gasoline consumption will weaken, and refinery start-up rate will gradually decline. According to statistics, from 2014 to 2019, the start-up rate of refineries in the United States began to decline in early September, until the end of mid-October. In the week ending September 13, the start-up rate of refineries in the United States was 91.20%, with a 3.90% decrease in the circumference-to-circumference ratio. Although it was at a high level in the year, it had declined somewhat, with obvious seasonal regularity. At the same time, US commercial crude oil inventories are bottoming out at this stage of the year. From 2013 to 2019, U.S. commercial crude oil stocks reached the end in mid-September, then entered the accumulation stage, until the peak in mid-November. As of the week ending Sept. 13, US commercial crude oil stocks stood at 417 million barrels, down by 271 million barrels from the June 7 high, but above the six-year average. With the arrival of seasonal replenishment cycle, the accumulation of crude oil stocks is expected to increase.

To sum up, the attack in Saudi Arabia raised concerns about the shortage of crude oil supply. With Saudi Arabia’s recovery of damaged capacity as soon as possible and the expectation of the United States putting in reserves, the market recovered. Oil prices are facing the risk of sustained decline after the seasonal off-season of crude oil demand.