Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PC market was narrow in early June. As of June 5, the average offer price of domestic producers and traders for Bayer 2805 was about 18933.33 yuan/ton.

II. Cause Analysis

Bisphenol A in PC upstream declined weakly this week. Spot quotation is gradually decreasing, business confidence is affected, delivery order is slow and resistance is greater. Downstream factories just need to purchase, demand has not improved. On-site look at the atmosphere is heavy, it is expected that the market may continue to be weak finishing, the cost of PC support is not good. The traditional overhaul season of PC in China has not completely ended, and the start-up rate of the device is general, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not diminished. Businessmen are cautious in their operation, and the unstable external information aggravates the negative market mentality. Downstream demand has not improved, PC quotation narrow fluctuation adjustment.

3. Future Market Forecast

PC analysts of business associations believe that the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic PC market is still prominent in early June, with little turnover. External news turmoil intensified and offer was weak and deadlocked. It is expected that the recent trend will probably continue the narrow adjustment trend.

Price Trend

Business associations: Maleic anhydride market continued downward trend in May

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offered at the end of the month was 6950.00 yuan/ton (including taxes), with a monthly increase or decrease of -2.46%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Maleic anhydride market continued to decline in May. Crude oil fell in May, downstream resin factories due to environmental and economic factors, low start-up rate, general demand for maleic anhydride. In May, the domestic maleic anhydride start-up rate increased, the main factories were operating normally, and the domestic supply of maleic anhydride increased. Downstream enterprises and traders have low inquiry intentions, mainly to maintain on-demand procurement, and market transactions are general.

Industry Chain: The fall of crude oil in May has limited support for the prices of n-butane and pure benzene. Downstream resins factories started because of environmental factors, market sentiment is weak. Hengli Petrochemical shipped a lot and the price of n-butane fell sharply. In June, there is no maintenance plan for the plant, and the start-up rate is expected to remain stable. Therefore, maleic anhydride is expected to maintain a downward trend in the follow-up.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is expected to continue its downward trend in June, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of June 4, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2264 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market fell.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The market talks in Central China declined at the beginning of the week. The futures market has fallen, the surrounding areas have fallen, and the offer of the main enterprises in the market is temporarily stable, but some of the holders have begun to sell. There are 2060 yuan/ton offers in Luoyang area. The offer of the two lakes enterprises is temporarily stable, and the market is more wait-and-see. The methanol market in South China is weak, the futures market is dived, the spot price in South China keeps falling, and the buying atmosphere in Guangdong is insufficient. In addition to a small amount of short supply demand, terminal purchasing is basically on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is light. Spot prices in Fujian also continued to fall, with some first-hand commercial futures dived early this week, temporarily maintaining a wait-and-see attitude and few inquiries.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the formaldehyde market was partially sorted out at the beginning of the week. Most of the region’s offer is temporarily stable, the Hebei market is down, the upstream methanol market is down, the downstream market is just in need, and the overall transaction is relatively general. Dimethyl ether: The price of dimethyl ether is temporarily stable and the trading atmosphere is general. International crude oil market is not good, liquefied petroleum gas prices have fallen broadly, the price gap of gas ether has gradually narrowed to about 600 yuan, the price advantage of dimethyl ether has weakened, and the situation of various enterprises is general. However, from the cost point of view, the profit of dimethyl ether enterprises is still small, the overall start-up load in Henan is not high, and the mentality of the manufacturers is strong. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market has risen slightly at the low end. The shutdown of Huayi plant in Anhui and Thorpe plant in Jiangsu has resulted in the shortage of four major suppliers in East China, and the inventory of the surrounding production enterprises is still sufficient. The downstream sector just needs to buy, there is no downstream enterprises to increase demand, export is concentrated in the middle of the month, the market is not good enough to support. Anhui Huayi and Jiangsu Soap acetic acid plants were restarted on June 5. It is expected that the acetic acid market will run steadily after a small rise in the low end.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: At present, most traders are bullish on the market and have a more wait-and-see attitude. Prices in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China and other places fell more this week. The accelerated decline of the market is mostly affected by macro factors. The macro-level is still skewed. Business Cooperative Methanol Analysts predict that the short-term domestic market for methanol is still weak, but the panic mood may turn weak, the space for decline may be limited, and the market will stop. The possibility of stabilization.

After a wave of sustained rise, international oil prices returned to their declining trend in the fourth quarter of last year. Since May, affected by global hedging sentiment and inventory supply, international oil prices have plunged into a new round of decline, and the two major international oil futures contracts have stepped out of the first lunar eclipse of this year.

“The contraction of crude oil production and the abolition of Iranian oil import exemption by the United States are the supporting factors for the rebound in oil prices in the first quarter, but the oil price has fallen sharply in the near future due to the basically stable contraction of crude oil production to May.” Qiu Xuan, a senior engineer at the Marketing Institute of China National Petroleum Planning Institute, told Shanghai Stock Exchange.

As of Friday’s close, WTI crude oil main contract closed at $53.40 a barrel, down more than 5% in the day, 8.9% in the week and 16.5% in the month. Brent crude oil main contract closed at $61.76 a barrel, down more than 5% on the day, 10% on the week and 14.3% on the month.

As a representative of risky assets, crude oil prices have fallen into the same downturn as global stock markets recently. Ole Hansen, head of global commodity strategy at Saab Bank in Denmark, said the negative impact of the global economy had raised concerns among investors that growth in crude oil demand would slow down and put pressure on oil prices.

Several international agencies have begun to lower their global economic growth expectations. In early April, the IMF again lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3%, the slowest pace since 2009, compared with 3.9% a year ago.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) further lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% in May, 0.7 percentage points lower than last May’s forecast.

“Macroeconomic data are deteriorating, as can be seen from weak oil demand.” The United States Bank of America said in a report.

Later, Qiu Xuan believes that oil prices are still highly uncertain and likely to maintain a wide range of oscillations.

Christopher Lewis, an analyst at FX Empire, an overseas technology arm, believes that oil prices now seem to be looking for a bottom and may be lower for some time to come.

U.S. crude oil inventories are still operating at high levels, which exacerbates the bearish sentiment that pervades the market. U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell by about 300,000 barrels in the week ending May 24, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency on May 30, but the decline was far below market expectations, with crude oil production increasing by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.3 million barrels.

However, lower oil prices are good news for big energy importers such as China. In Qiu Xuan’s view, the fall in international oil prices will help China reduce import costs.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 165 million tons of crude oil from January to April this year, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year. The average import price was 3145.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.9%.

As international oil prices continue to fall, the market expects domestic refined oil products to come down. According to Longzhong Information, the overall change rate of crude oil as of May 31 is -4.12%. It is estimated that the corresponding reduction will be 190 yuan/ton. A new round of price adjustment window for refined oil will be opened at 24:00 on June 11.

“Whether the OPEC Conference in June will continue to implement the cut-off agreement and whether to expand the cut-off is still unknown. In addition, the repaired joint of the U.S. crude oil pipeline is another factor affecting oil prices. Qiu Xuan said that if OPEC announced a cut in production before the completion of the U.S. crude oil pipeline, it would be good for oil prices, and vice versa, it would be bad for oil prices to rise.

On June 2, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 3rd day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen, and the market price is 1726.67 yuan/ton on the 3rd day. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material has risen slightly. The price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, while that in the northwest region is above 290-3100 yuan/ton. The rising price trend of cruise raw materials has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 2, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 3rd day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene was normally supplied. Benzene market price trend is temporarily stable. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 31, the market price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 24 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 834-836 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 853-855 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporary stable.

On May 31, the futures market price of WTI crude oil in July fell sharply to 53.50 US dollars per barrel, down by 3.09 US dollars. The futures price of Brent crude oil in July fell sharply to 64.49 US dollars per barrel, down by 2.38 US dollars. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support to the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stable, PTA price declined slightly on the 3rd day. The average price in East China was raised near 5600-5700 yuan/ton. By the 31st day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 83.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 86%, and the downstream production and sales rate maintained a high level. However, PTA market price was slightly lower, and the price of PX market is expected to oscillate at a low level.

On June 3, the rare earth index was 389 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 61.10% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 43.54% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 440,000 yuan per ton, dysprosium is 2325,000 yuan per ton and praseodymium is 69,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton to 340,000 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide price was 1.975 million yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide price increased by 15,000 yuan/ton to 390,000 yuan/ton, and neodymium oxide price increased by 10,000 yuan/ton to 340,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 440,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys is 1.975 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of some rare earths has risen, the domestic rare earth market is in general, the price trend of most commodities in the rare earth market has risen, and the import of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium products is limited by the import of Myanmar mines. Market participants are more optimistic about the price of medium and heavy rare earths. Holders are reluctant to sell them, and the price of dysprosium and terbium series products keeps high, but the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is general, and the supply in the field is normal. Light rare earth prices have been slightly revised back in recent years. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of rare earth market is rising, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products. Recently, rare earth imports have declined, domestic enterprises are reluctant to sell, and some prices in the rare earth market have risen.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document to crack down on rare earth blacks. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw mineral resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the rare earth industry has been trading well.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not decrease, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s restrictions on exports and reduced supply will provide some favorable support for the rare earth industry, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to maintain a high level.

Potassium sulphate market is relatively stable as a whole. Roche Potassium of CITIC has recently entered the state of summer overhaul. This overhaul will last for a long time until September. Although there is still a certain amount of stock in the factory, it is mostly a source of goods for traders in the early stage, and the available volume is relatively small. At present, the arrival price of 52% powder in various regions is more than 2700-2750 yuan/ton.

Mannheim market trend is stable, although the plant start-up slightly increased, but the factory inventory did not rise substantially, in the case of a certain number of orders, the price has not been adjusted for the time being.

At present, Mannheim 50% powder ex-factory price is 2800-2850 yuan/ton, 52% water-soluble ex-factory price is 2950-3050 yuan/ton, the transaction price is mainly single-sided.

Potassium chloride cost support price of potassium sulfate raw material; 52 powder potassium sulfate is mainly consumed in downstream high tower compound fertilizer production; 52 powder performs well in demand and 50 powder is flat; the production center of gravity is obviously inclined to 52 powder. Now Shandong Mannheim 50 powder mainstream factory quotation 2850 yuan/ton; 52 powder/particle factory quotation 3000 yuan/ton; water salt 50 powder factory quotation 2700 yuan/ton, the transaction preferential are discussed.

The 16th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, sponsored by Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Financial Work Bureau, was held in Shanghai International Conference Center from 27 to 29 May. The theme of this forum is “serving entities for 20 years, creating the future through reform and opening up”.

On May 29, Zheng Wenrong, the full-time vice president of China Natural Rubber Association, attended the 16th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum and delivered a speech on the theme of “China Natural Rubber Supply Situation and Prospects”.

In his speech, Zheng Wenrong said that the external environment for China’s development has undergone tremendous changes. Because it used to export a lot, and the peripheral market is also hoping to get China’s cheap and good products, but the wind has completely changed. Therefore, China’s export-oriented development environment has undergone tremendous changes, so the rubber industry in China needs to change its thinking and should be based on the domestic market. The cost of financing in Britain and the United States, the decline in automobile sales and the increase of international trade friction all pose great challenges to the rubber industry. But there are also great opportunities in the face of challenges.

He believes that China’s economy has embarked on a channel of transformation and upgrading. Although car sales are declining, car ownership is the first in the world, and the demand for rubber replacement products has maintained a very large growth. In this case, the rubber industry should reflect and seize this opportunity.

“First, we must pay attention to quality. Although many tires are safe and of good quality, we still buy Michelin and Goodyear instead of Chinese brands, which shows that we have a long way to go in brand promotion and quality construction. Second, everything depends on innovation. In the future, all enterprises must change from a manufacturer to a service provider. Only high-quality service can make a very good company. Zheng Wenrong said.