May 23, the rare earth index was 381 points, up 17 points from yesterday, down 61.9% from 1000 at the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06), up 271 from its lowest point of 40.59% on September 13, 2015.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date). The average price of metal neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 52500 yuan/ton to 440,000 yuan/ton, the average price of dysprosium metal was 2.275 million yuan/ton, and the average price of metal praseodymium was 690,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 30000 yuan/ton to 335,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide prices increased by 30,000 yuan/ton to 1.955 million yuan/ton; the average of oxidized praseodymium was 355,000 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 30000 yuan/ton to 330,000 yuan/ton.

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The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy increased by 55000 yuan/ton to 450,000 yuan/ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 30,000 yuan/ton to 1.955 million yuan/ton. Recent Rare earth field prices rose sharply, domestic rare earth market trading market improved, rare earth market most commodity prices higher, heavy rare earth dysprosium terbium varieties affected by Myanmar Mine import restrictions, market participants on the price of medium-heavy rare earths, holding merchants reluctant, dysprosium terbium prices rose sharply, coupled with Praseodymium Neodymium series of products market trend in general, The supply of the field is normal, rare earth prices in the recent trend of rise. Rare Earth market price shock is related to environmental inspectors nationwide, rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation harm to make environmental protection supervision become more stringent. In the environmental protection of strict inspection, a number of provinces rare earth separation enterprises have been discontinued, resulting in the general rare earth oxide market delivery, the recent rare earth market to the seller’s markets, manufacturers reasonable control of sales, reluctant sentiment is strong. In particular, some mainstream rare earth oxides, supply performance tension, rare earth market price trend rise, the recent field of large enterprise groups have reluctant sentiment, rare earth market improve, but the price of products are also carefully watched by manufacturers.

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The recent decline in rare earth imports, domestic enterprises reluctant, the rare earth market part of the price rose sharply. Recently, the state Environmental Protection Department strict investigation efforts, the impact on the rare earth industry is greater, rare earth industry started low, the market is cold.

Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document on rare Earth black, because the regulatory effect is becoming increasingly apparent, rare earth industry upstream raw ore resources supply shrinkage, rare earth industry trading market to go well. Business Society Rare Earth analysts expect the recent domestic environmental protection is not reduced, coupled with the domestic order of the rare earth industry rectification, Myanmar to restrict exports, supply reduction, the rare earth industry has a certain positive support, rare Earth products are expected to rise expectations.

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Adani, India’s largest power coal importer, recently predicted a pick-up in India’s power coal imports in 2019 and could maintain strong growth momentum over the next 10 years as Adani in India’s domestic coal is in short supply, Bloomberg reported. Vinay Prakash, chief executive of Adani Coal and mining, said in an interview that India’s coal imports in the new fiscal year are expected to reach 184 million tonnes, up 11% per cent from April 1 this year, while annual imports of overseas coal are expected to rise to 200 million tonnes over the next 10 years.

He said consumers in India’s coastal areas would also prefer imported coal because of higher domestic coal transport costs.

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Meanwhile, Vinay Prakash points out that the group plans to build 1600 megawatts of coal-fired power plants in the eastern state of Chalkhand, which will be a major destination for Adani’s coal production in the Galilee Basin, Australia. In fact, in order to reduce the external dependence of coal, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi previously asked state-owned mining companies Coal India to increase domestic coal production, India’s imports of coal has declined for years.

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However, demand for coal in India has recently picked up, and imports of coal have begun to rebound amid insufficient domestic coal production and limited capacity in India. According to Bloomberg, India has long relied heavily on coal-fired power generation, and although other markets around the world have gradually shifted to renewable energy, India’s coal demand will bring a lifeline to global coal exporters.

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International oil prices fell sharply 22nd, among other factors, including continued significant gains in U.S. crude inventories last week.

New York’s light crude oil futures price hit its biggest one-day drop in nearly three weeks. By the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in July fell by $1.71 to 2.71%, closing at $61.42 per barrel, the lowest closing price since May 13.

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The price of Brent crude oil futures in London, which was delivered in July, fell 1.19 dollars, closing at $70.99 per barrel, or 1.65%. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose significantly for the second week in a row last week, up 4.7 million barrels to 476.8 million barrels, 4% higher than the nearly 5-year average, according to data released 22nd by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By contrast, analysts had previously expected an average reduction of 2 million barrels of crude oil inventories for the week, according to a Standard & amp; Poor’s global Platts survey. Last week, U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels a month, distilled oil increased by 800,000 barrels, and propane and propylene inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels.

Including commercial crude oil, refined oil, propane and propylene, U.S. commercial oil inventories rose sharply by 16.8 million barrels a year last week, up from 14.6 million barrels a week earlier. The data showed that last week the United States imported 6.9 million barrels of crude oil, a year-on-quarter decline of 669,000 barrels, refinery daily crude oil processing volume of 16.6 million barrels, a reduction of 98,000 barrels, the refinery start rate of 89.9%, lower than the previous week 90.5%.

Last week’s average U.S. crude oil production remained high at 12.2 million barrels, up from 12.1 million barrels in the previous week. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Brinkley Data, said: “Despite the sharp drop in crude oil imports, the number of crude oil refineries in the United States is below the annual average, prompting crude oil inventories to grow for the second week in a row. U.S. crude inventories have increased by more than 37 million barrels over the past nine weeks, an increase of as much as 8.5%. Smith added: “Domestic crude oil production in the United States has increased again, while the United States has once again released strategic reserve crude oil, this time released 1.2 million barrels.” All of these factors have driven the rise in U.S. crude oil inventories.

”

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Ole Hansen, head of global commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Denmark, said renewed tensions in the Middle East and a possible OPEC deal to cut production could not lead to a breakthrough in international oil prices, owing to growing concerns about trade tensions affecting global economic growth and the continued strength of the dollar. Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil brokerage, said changes in U.S.-Iran relations and the global trade situation could cause international oil prices to fluctuate by about $10 trillion amid a fragile balance in the oil market. Phil Flynn22, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said the recent rise in crude oil inventories would be a thing of the past because of tight supply and demand for oil products and the refinery’s need to increase processing volumes sooner or later.

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Oil prices in Asia 20th jumped after OPEC+ Member States expressed interest in continuing to cut production this year, according to the Oil and Gas yearbook in London on May 20. U.S. WTI crude futures rose 1.3% to $63.75 trillion/barrel as of 12:20 Eastern time (04:20 GMT).

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International Brent crude oil futures rose 1.4% per cent to $73.20 trillion/barrel.

19th (Khalid Al Falih), Saudi energy minister, has said OPEC members have reached a “moderate” consensus to push down crude oil inventories, but the Saudis will still respond to demand for “fragile markets.”

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It comes after OPEC decided to cut oil supplies by 1.2 million barrels a day for the first six months of 2019, leading to a 40% per cent rise in oil prices so far this year. At a news conference after OPEC and other producers met, Mr Falih said “the second half priority is to maintain production management and allow inventories to dwindle gradually, but certainly to decline towards normal levels.”

”

Meanwhile, Mazuru, energy Secretary of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told reporters that maintaining a production reduction strategy was not the “right decision.” In the end, OPEC will make a formal decision on production cuts on June 25.

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Weak demand for strong supply The first listed EG1906 contract continued to weaken after the listing of ethylene glycol futures in December last year, and has recorded a decline of more than 30% per cent so far.

Despite a strong rebound in crude oil in the first quarter, cost-end support did not dampen the deep fall in ethylene glycol, affected by oversupply and port storage.

Reduced upstream support strength Recently, the United States announced an end to Iran’s oil sanctions exemption, geopolitical risks again. Global oil demand is now higher than expected at the start of the year, and OPEC is considering reducing its production cuts. And as the northern hemisphere grows into summer travel peaks, rising gasoline consumption usually raises oil prices. Even if the OPEC meeting is postponed until July, uncertainty remains that oil-producing countries will continue to meet the deal to cut production. The peak period of oil prices is expected to end in mid-August, when crude oil support downstream will also fall back.

Since ethylene glycol is in a capacity expansion cycle this year, the upstream cost end support will be difficult to counter the huge capacity of ethylene glycol.

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Supply glut pattern difficult to change As at May 20, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol installations in China was 71.01%. Among them, coal ethylene glycol start load 55.97%. This year, the ethylene glycol market will continue the supply glut pattern. At present, the cash flow of each ethylene glycol production route has been lost. Since April, the domestic ethylene glycol plant has gradually launched a maintenance plan.

After the installation of the postpartum, the supply pressure will be revealed again. Based on the “Coal rich poor oil” energy structure, support for the development of coal chemical industry has been included in the “Thirteen-Five” strategic plan. This shows that in the future our country will no longer rely excessively on oil imports. 1.69 million tons of coal ethylene glycol units will be planned for production in 2019. Compared with ethylene process, the cost advantage of coal ethylene glycol is obvious. Although the domestic polyester market is facing saturation, but in order to compete for incremental demand, under the profit loss, the coal ethylene glycol process still chooses to continue production.

Overcapacity in the ethylene glycol market is expected to remain in place for 1-2 years.

Reduced downstream demand increments Trade frictions between China and the United States intensified in March 2018. At the mercy of panic, the weaving plant’s massive front purchase overdrawn the late demand.

Recently, Sino-US trade disputes have escalated further, or led to a weaker overall export of the polyester market. At present, polyester construction rate of 87.57%, loom start rate of 76%. In the traditional peak season near the end, polyester continuous high start background, terminal weaving order capacity is limited, late production and marketing is not good. Gold three silver four “grab orders” after the downstream consumption will be diluted. Due to inventory occupation of funds, the late polyester market will face the double pressure of inventory and cash flow. After May, weaving gradually into the low season, demand is afraid of a breakthrough.

And the high fall of polyester start load will directly weaken the demand for upstream ethylene glycol.

High inventories will continue As at May 16, the main port in east China was stocked by 1.2082 million tons, a decrease of 2800 tons compared with the beginning of May. Recently, domestic factories began to take the initiative to reduce negative, more equipment maintenance. The supply pressure has been eased by the impact of the 51 front and downstream replenishment banks.

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However, after the market import cargo to the port volume is still stable, so the two quarter ethylene glycol port inventory will be difficult to fall sharply. Port Reservoir drive mainly comes from imported oil ethylene glycol. Since December last year, the biggest increase in ethylene glycol inventories has exceeded 90%. Aftermarket port inventory will become the focus of oil and coal production route game. Generally after winter, the northern coal head device may encounter environmental protection production restrictions, which will result in a shortage of coal supply, East China polyester factory or the nearest choice of ethylene supply. In this way, there will be a marked decline in port inventories.

However, the overhaul production restrictions is usually staged, after the overhaul of the coal products back to a comeback, then the port will also return to the reservoir cycle. Taken together, reduced marginal demand exacerbates supply-side pressure, resulting in a passive increase in ethylene glycol inventories. At the same time, due to the EG1906 contract near the delivery period, part of the oil ethylene glycol delivery out of the warehouse, the port inventory pressure will be eased. However, with the end of domestic and foreign equipment maintenance, import sources and coal products gradually restored supply. In the third quarter, ethylene glycol threatened to face the adverse situation of strong demand and weak, and it will be inevitable to explore the bottom under the price.

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International oil prices continued their gains 21st, influenced by rising geopolitical risks.

The prices of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in June rose by $0.31 trillion to $63.41 per barrel; London Brent crude oil futures, delivered in July, rose 0.23 dollars and closed at $72.2 per barrel, all at a high since late April.

Analysts say the energy market supply side will continue to tighten if security risks persist in the Middle East. In recent times, U.S.-Iran relations have continued to be tense. Earlier this month, the United States announced that it would no longer grant sanctions exemptions to imports of Iranian oil from some countries and regions to ban Iranian oil exports across the country, and then announced sanctions against Iran’s steel, aluminium and copper industries. In addition, the United States announced the deployment to the Middle East of the “Abraham Lincoln” carrier Battle Group, B-52 strategic bombers and dockyard transport ships to deal with the “Iranian threat.”

Iran’s crude oil exports reportedly fell to 500,000 barrels a day in May. In response, Iran threatened to close Hormuz, Str. Of.

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Hormuz, Str. Of is the only way for crude oil exports from Middle Eastern oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and about one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade depends on it. OPEC’s attitude to extending production cuts also supports oil price expectations.

OPEC said the implementation rate of the agreement on production cuts between OPEC and partner countries in April was as high as 168%, and the implementation rate of the agreement to cut production in January-April was 120% this year.

According to data provided by OPEC, oil inventories in developed economies rose 3.3 million barrels a year in March, and oil stocks levels were 22.8 million barrels higher than the average of nearly five years.

Saudi Energy Secretary Falih said 19th that OPEC’s consensus with non-OPEC partners is to reduce crude oil inventories, but will still respond to fragile market supply and demand.

The market believes OPEC still tends to maintain production cuts in the second half of the year, with international oil prices supported to some extent.

The outlook for oil consumption is worsening as downside risks increase in the global economy and growth prospects in a number of major emerging markets, including Brazil, India and Turkey, are in doubt.

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The MSCI Ming Sheng Emerging Markets index is down 9% from a year earlier and, while down from a 17% drop at the end of December, remains the worst performance since the commodities plummeted from 2015 to 2016. Brazil lowered its economic growth forecast, and the country’s economy may have shrunk in the first quarter. Argentina’s inflation rate is accelerating, and the International Monetary Fund expects its economy to shrink this year.

India’s economy is also losing momentum. Market participants expect oil consumption growth to slow this year against a backdrop of slowing global economic growth, with oil prices lacking momentum to rise.

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First, the trend analysis According to business data monitoring shows: Since May, the domestic cobalt market shock adjustment, cobalt price shock fell, the overall cobalt price powerless rebound rise. As at May 19 cobalt price of 251833.33 yuan/ton, compared with May 1 cobalt price 272500.00 yuan/ton fell, a decrease of 7.58%.

Compared to April, cobalt prices suddenly fell sharply in May, and the dawn of cobalt was hard to cash.

II. Analysis of macroeconomic environment

1, international cobalt price rise weak

Category specifications

Lowest price

Change

Highest price

Change

Unit

2019.5.3

2019.5.17

2019.4.3

2019.4.26

Standard Grade Cobalt

16.35

16.25

-0.1

17.05

16.8

-0.25

USD/lb

Alloy grade Cobalt

17

17

0

18

17.7

-0.3

USD/lb
© 2019.4 Business Club

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International Market MB quoted a small decline in May, the fall in international cobalt prices dragged down the domestic cobalt market.

LME market Cobalt Price into May after the stability of cobalt prices, cobalt City lost the momentum of rise, the domestic market cobalt price bearish.

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2. Escalation of Sino-US trade disputes May 9–The U.S. government announced that the tariff rate on the 200 billion dollar list of goods imported from China has increased from 10% to 25% since May 10. May 13, China’s State Council tariff committee issued a notice that from 0 o’clock on the June 1, will be imposed tariffs on the 60 billion of dollars list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, respectively, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% of the levy tariff. 5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.

Sino-US trade disputes escalated, the macroeconomic environment deteriorated, the non-ferrous metal market and cobalt city formed a negative, cobalt price rise weak.

3. Trump delays imposing tariffs on cars U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to delay the decision to impose tariffs on imported cars and parts for six months to temporarily avoid expanding global trade disputes, foreign media four reported. Trump’s delay in imposing tariffs on cars comes at a time when the United States is trying to reach a potential trade deal with China to end escalating conflict.

The suspension of the imposition of tariffs on cars in the United States has created a greater boon for the city of Cobalt, but has not changed the current situation of oversupply in cobalt city.

Iii. New Energy Vehicles In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 102,000 and 97,000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 25% and 18.1% respectively over a year earlier, according to the latest data released by the Federation.

In April, the new energy passenger car market entered the subsidy transition period, although the new energy vehicle achieved a good sales level of 91,000 units, an increase of 28.4% yoy, but March-year growth-17%, compared with the March decline, the demand for cobalt market after the bearish.

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Iv. growth in mobile phone sales China ICT Institute data show that in April 2019, the domestic mobile phone market overall shipments of 36.53 million, an increase of 6.7%, 2019 1-April, the domestic mobile phone market overall shipments of 113 million, a decrease of 6.7%.

Although mobile phone sales in 2019 are still a big decline from the same period in 18, but the April rise for the market to bring a glimmer of good, the increase in mobile phone sales on the demand for cobalt market in the aftermarket has a certain positive.

V. Outlook for the aftermarket: Business data analyst Baijia believes that since entering the May, international cobalt prices have been weak, can not bring good domestic cobalt prices, on the contrary, the international economic environment continues to deteriorate, the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes to cobalt market has a greater profit, affecting the rebound of cobalt city. Sales of new energy vehicles in the country increased in April compared with the same period last year, but the decline in sales over March also shows that the decline in subsidies has a greater impact on the sale of new energy vehicles, to the cobalt market. Although the United States also suspended the positive stimulus of tariffs on cars in May, eased trade disputes between the European Union and Japan and the United States, avoided a third-tier war in the United States, had little impact on China, and changes in tariffs were difficult to change the status quo of the oversupply in cobalt market is limited to the cobalt market. The larger good news from the mobile phone market, although the 19 mobile phone market Overall performance is not good, but a gradual upward trend, of which April mobile phone sales are up 6.7% from the same period last year, the April mobile phone market performance is excellent, for the aftermarket demand for cobalt market to bring new vitality, the increase in cobalt prices have a greater positive. But overall, the current stage of Cobalt City is still in a state of oversupply, cobalt prices rose indefinitely, expected after the market cobalt price shock fell, cobalt city is difficult to recover the dawn.

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US stir-up friction shakes global market 2019 Impact of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products May 9, the United States Government announced that since the 2019 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affected by May 10, the import of 200 billion U.S.-China trade war on polyolefin and plastic products on the impact list commodity levy tariff rate increased from 10% to 25%. The above measures have led to an escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions. Subsequently, China resolutely counter the system and announced the impact of the 2019 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products from 0 o’clock on the June 1, the 60 billion U.S.-China trade war that has imposed tariffs on the impact of polyolefin and plastic products on the list of United States goods, the increase in tariff rates, the implementation of 25%, 20% or 10% tariff increases, respectively.

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5% tariffs continue to be imposed on items that have previously been imposed on tariff lines of 5%.

Trade friction is not a child fight, and as the world’s first and second largest economy, news of the friction and escalation of Sino-US trade has sparked a fall in major global stock indexes and weighed down global commodity downturns.

The plastics industry is hard to survive Polyolefin as a commodity is also affected, the international trade environment is once again due to the United States provoked by the escalation of trade friction and grim. Domestic concerns about the obstruction of exports of plastic products, and then a pessimistic attitude towards the demand for synthetic resin raw materials, including polyolefin, led to the continued downward trend of polyolefin futures in large merchants, as of this week, the market mentality only slightly has picked up, and large merchants L09 and P09 contracts are affected by this,

The biggest drop in just one week was more than 400. Impact of Sino-US trade Wars on polyolefin and plastic products/Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products, taking the East China market linear as an example, some spot brand market decline is the largest close to 500 Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products influence/Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products

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Changes in the supply flow of polyethylene global market The influence of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products on polyolefin and plastics in China and the United States Trade war on polyolefin and plastic Products The influence of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products added, according to the United States ACC data, 2019 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affected January-April, U.S. polyethylene monthly exports remain at 600,000 Sino-US trade Wars affect polyolefin and plastic products above, with major trade flows to Europe, Asia and the Americas. Because of the impact of the Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products, China imposed a 25% tariff on the United States for low pressure and linearity, leading to a Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affecting the impact of U.S.-China polyethylene exports on polyolefin and plastic products in the 700,000 Sino-US trade war, The impact of about 40.5 million Sino-US trade Wars on polyolefin and plastic products has been reduced more than expected.

Enables factories in the Middle East and Southeast Asia to supply Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic Products The influence of Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products flows to the Chinese market.

Domestic Plastic Products Export blocked The US $200 billion tax on the list of goods increased from 10% to 25%, involving the plastic products part of the 8 billion U.S.-China trade war on polyolefin and plastic products, accounting for more than 2018 Sino-US Trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affected by the export to the United States total amount of 43%. 8 billion of dollars accounted for about 3.5% of the total domestic demand, this part of the export fell to 0, the need for the remaining aggregate demand of the Sino-US trade war on polyolefin and plastic products affect the speed of 3.6% to maintain aggregate demand the Sino-US trade war has a flat-year impact on polyolefin and plastic products. Of course, plastic products not only involve the demand for polyolefin, but also on PS, PET, EVA and other needs have a negative impact.

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In the low season potassium chloride market is poor, after the wind direction is also clear and rainy, elusive. To what extent has the price of potassium chloride fallen now? Is there any impact of Sino-US trade frictions? Exchange rate fluctuation, Qinghai reduction and other factors under the big contract negotiations will be how? Domestic potassium faucet Salt Lake shares next month will be how to adjust the new price?

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Now let’s take a look at apostles.

Imported potassium falls below cost line after 51 For fertilizer people, this year’s spring has come particularly late but the walk is not muddy. After 51, the price of potassium chloride all the way down, the current border trade 62% white potassium has fallen to less than 2050 yuan (ton price, the same below), the port 60% red powder has fallen to less than 2150 yuan, and the former May monthly import cost price of 2120 yuan, the latter’s apparent cost of 2310 Yuan, rebate after the cost of 2160 yuan, That is to say, at least a loss of 70 yuan and 10 yuan respectively. As for the port 62% white potassium, especially 60% red granular potassium price some confusion, the general quotation, ton package or bulk goods quotation and the actual transaction price of the overall range is larger, probably near 2280-2380 yuan, and its apparent cost, return after the cost of the range of 2200-2380 yuan, It can be said that a leg has also stepped into the loss.

And the key problem is that it is not yet possible to conclude that such a price is already bottoming out.

The influence of Sino-US trade friction upgrade Talk about to go to the tariff or add to each other, in the face of the trade war, other we dare not say, potash people can indeed pat the chest said “to fight and fight”, because-potassium chloride, potassium sulfate import and export and the United States does not have much intersection. This point the previous day has the industry detailed list of data, the author will not repeat. In addition, there is a voice in the market that Sino-US trade frictions have reduced imports of agricultural products, favorable to the rise in domestic agricultural prices, increased demand, and indirectly will be good fertilizer demand and prices. In this regard, the author has reservations. Because one of the agricultural products to add tariffs is the last thing that has happened, nearly a year of agricultural product prices have surged? The other is that we only add to the United States, not with the world! Therefore, do not be too “hot blood”, do not forget the upper layer of strong regulatory capacity, and do not ignore the import volume and structure of the details of the change.

The key also to remember that strength is not created by not letting people in!

Production reduction, devaluation and large contract negotiation In the early stage, I have repeatedly stressed that the second half of potassium chloride trend can be reversed one of the key points lies in the extent of domestic potassium production reduction, at present, this reduction has indeed reached the point of not to be belittled. Just now, domestic potassium production in the top three of the enterprise’s potassium chloride daily production of only about 14,000 tons, 24% less than the same period last year, 30% less than the same period in 2017! Of course, this kind of contrast is not really convincing, because it is only a small short period of performance, but the author is still more worried about the last six months to end the various statistical data after the market response.

In addition, from May 9 to date, the renminbi has fallen 8 days against the dollar, the median price from 6.7596 to 6.8988, today’s real-time exchange price has reached about 6.93, such a change will make potassium chloride import costs up to nearly 50 yuan. At first glance, the above two points seem to support the domestic price of potassium chloride, but in fact not necessarily. First of all, although the production of domestic potassium will reduce the weight of negotiations, but the current low-season potassium chloride port stock is far greater than the same period in previous years, and nearly half a year the price of the international potash market has been stable and difficult to rise, in the past six months there have been about 5 of dollars in the fall, so the 82 weight of foreign investors Because the upward trend is not good, so changes in the exchange rate are more likely to be reflected in the buyer’s price, so the rise in the cost of the yuan’s price increase is likely to be reflected in the big contract is down 5-6 of dollars, which is only from the exchange rate point of view.

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From the existing situation analysis, the author initially believes that the new large-contract negotiations on both sides can not be delayed, the signing time should still be within 7-September, the price on the basis of 290 of dollars or about 10-20 of dollars in the fall.

Forecast of domestic potassium June price Salt Lake June New Price is afraid to fall back, according to the current import potassium price situation, if the fall or will be around 50 yuan. First of all, in the low season, Hong Kong deposit, so the short-term price trend is impossible to reverse, second, the recent decline in imports of potassium is obvious, the coastal market in the domestic potassium circulation price has followed the downward adjustment; third, after 4 May of sales, Salt Lake in June need to ensure a certain collection, even if not cut prices but there may be other

But after this stage of the off-season, in the second half of the domestic potassium production and marketing situation will appear to be particularly important, you can look forward to perhaps become the trigger of the late price increase. In summary, no matter how to see the aftermarket, want to carry out what kind of operation, now do not have to worry, first patiently watch it.

EDTA

In the past 2 days, a-share rare earth permanent magnet concept stock has experienced a “roller coaster.” May 16, the concept of rare earth permanent magnet set off a wave of trading, Northern Rare earth (600111), Guangsheng nonferrous (600259), Shenghe Resources (600392), Minmetals rare earth (000831), Medium color Shares (000758), Ningbo Yun Sheng (600366), East Fujian Electric Power (000993), North Mine Technology (600980) and other nearly 20 stocks collective trading. On the same day, the A-share market also in the low after the concussion higher, the three major stock indices are red reported. However, the wave of trading is only a flash in the pan. May 17, A shares high and low walk, the three major stock indexes fell more than 2% at the same time, rare earth concept stocks also closed with varying degrees of decline. Northern Rare earth closing price of 10.99 yuan/share, down 1.96%; Guangsheng colored closing price 37.50 yuan/share, down 5.52%; Xiamen tungsten Industry closing price 13.33 yuan/share, down 6.59%. What factors caused the roller coaster market?

For the previous day’s rise, the industry is widely believed to be caused by short-term supply concerns for rare earths. November 3, 2018, Yunnan Tengchong customs banned all Burmese resources imported into China, including rare earth mineral resources. December 14, 2018, Tengchong customs in response to Myanmar rare Earth mine clearance, the implementation period of 5 months, that is, from May 2019 onwards will be a total ban on the import of rare earth minerals into China; February 14, 2019, the municipal government of Tengchong, Yunnan province to completely stop the export of rare earth related chemical raw materials to Myanmar, coverage including Tengchong Yunnan Beach Port,

As well as the state-level port Chicho and the surrounding port. According to Tengchong customs clearance operations staff, the closure of rare earth imports and the export of rare earth related production materials is a unified deployment of the local government, mainly considering the safety of domestic migrant workers, and other factors such as domestic industrial regulation.

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He said that the gathering area of rare earth development in Myanmar, there are contradictions between local armed forces and Burmese Government, the interests of the two are not consistent, the safety of local migrant workers is difficult to guarantee. Notably, before the ban, Myanmar was China’s largest importer of ionic rare earths. According to customs data, Myanmar imported 25,800 tonnes of mixed rare earth carbonate (about 20,000 tons of oxides) in 2018, accounting for 85%, and the domestic medium-weight rare earth quota (about 20,000 tons) is comparable. However, monthly data showed that the number of rare earth carbonate imports in November 2018 and December fell by 69% and 59% respectively compared with October of the same year.

The market predicts that the supply of medium-heavy rare earths in China will be significantly reduced after the closure. “Not only are offshore mines not coming in, we are still shutting down, and there is less supply,” a person from a large rare earth group told surging News.

“This person refers to the shutdown is, since 2017, the domestic heavy rare earth because of environmental verification and resource costs, some mining is blocked and shut down, the domestic medium and heavy rare earth mineral mining/quota utilization rate has been in a very low position.” It is reported that China heavy rare earth heavily in Jiangxi since 2018 all rare earth mines have been discontinued state, Gannan Rare earth mines have been discontinued for nearly 3 years, has not yet been reused.

The ion-type rare earth quota in Jiangxi Province accounts for nearly half of the national total quota, and the influence of Jiangxi mine shutdown on the supply of medium and heavy rare earths in China is “seismic type”. That is why Myanmar’s imports of medium-heavy rare earths have become an important complement in the past two years.

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Market analysis that once Myanmar imports ore seals, some smelting separation plants or into a “rice-free cooking” situation. Rare Earth is a generic term for 17 kinds of metal elements, known as the “industrial msg” reputation, widely used in electronic information, petrochemical, metallurgy, machinery, energy and other 13 fields more than 40 industries. The reason why it has become the focus of resource competition lies in its ability to apply to military high and new technologies such as missiles, intelligent weapons, navigation instruments and jet engines. In particular, medium and heavy rare earths are considered to be a strategic resource. China’s rare earth ore is mainly divided into Inner Mongolia Baotou Baiyun Ebo Rare Earth ore as the representative of the mixed light rare earth ore, Sichuan Mianning fluorine cerium light rare earth and the southern medium heavy ion rare earth ore. In recent years, China has supplied 70% of the world’s production with nearly 40% of its global reserves.

How to effectively supervise and exploit the dispersed Southern ionic mines has become an important part of protecting China’s strategic resources. However, China is shifting from a major exporter of rare earths to a major importer of rare earths amid ongoing government measures such as “rare earth black”. ASEAN countries such as Myanmar, Australia and the United States are important sources of rare earths imports in China. It is worth mentioning that the United States also maintains a high degree of dependence on rare earth magnets in China, taking into account such factors as the cost of restarting the mine and the impact on the environment. In the US list of tax increases for China, rare earths, key minerals and other resources are not on the list. In a study, Tian Feng Securities pointed out that this reflects the United States on China’s rare earth resources, magnetic materials are still strong dependence.

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