The ongoing confrontation between the two major forces in eastern and Western Libya is exacerbating the risk of disruption of the country’s oil exports. Since April, Khalifa Haftar, the military leader of Eastern Libya and commander of the National Army, has gone all the way south to occupy the outskirts of the capital Tripoli, and continued to engage in exchanges with the “Government of National Unity” (GNA), which is recognized and supported by the United Nations. The industry believes that the two major forces in Libya are seeking to “own” oil resources by force, and that war and division are seriously threatening the country’s oil production and export activities, thus affecting the prospects for supply and demand in the global oil market.

Scramble for oil wealth

The Financial Times reported that Haftar had been “coveting” Libya’s oil export revenue, and in order to gain control of the Libyan National Petroleum Corporation (NOC) and Libya’s Central Bank owned by GNA, his National Army was constantly approaching Tripoli. Although Haftar has not breached the capital’s last line of defense at the moment, the “East-West” forces have been red-eyed for oil wealth.

Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of NOC, said in a signed commentary on Bloomberg that he was “militarizing” the oil facilities to bypass the NOC and sell oil privately in order to raise funds for the next military operation.

In the past two years, the eastern stronghold of Haftar has occupied most of Libya’s oil fields and related infrastructure, as well as docks and ports. But according to UN Security Council resolutions, Haftar cannot sell oil privately, because NOC is the only entity allowed to export the country’s oil resources, and its revenues from oil exports are deposited in the accounts of the Libyan Central Bank, both of which are controlled and managed by GNA.

However, for Haftar, who is “attacking south”, capital is the most advantageous factor to control the war, even more important than military strength. Therefore, seizing and controlling “oil wealth” has become one of its current priorities. More and more experts and analysts believe that Haftar is trying to militarize the oil facilities under his control.

It is understood that the National Army has now occupied an important landing runway at the Sidel oil port in northern Libya, intended for military purposes, while stationing a warship at the refinery near the Ras Lanuf oil port in eastern Tripoli.

Verisk Maplecroft, a risk consultancy, points out that Haftar also tried to sell oil independently last year, and GNA subsequently stopped loading on the grounds of “force majeure” at oil ports, which led to the “disappearance” of about 850,000 barrels per day of oil from the international market between May and June last year.

Mustafa Sanalla strongly condemned Haftar, writing in his signed article: “I have seen the relevant documents to prove that he is trying to illegally sell Libyan oil through other entities. Undoubtedly, the destruction of Libya’s oil export system and disruption of the normal operation of NOC will lead to the continuation of the national civil war. This profit-making action will undoubtedly lead to illegal financing activities of other operations and armed forces, which will have a very negative impact on Libya’s search for peace and stability.

Yield loss or up to 95%

British independent media “Eye of the Middle East” pointed out that Libya’s escalating civil strife will lead to significant losses in oil production in the country.

Mustafa Sanalla confirmed this directly. On the eve of the OPEC+Jeddah meeting on May 19, he said: “If the civil unrest continues to worsen, Libya may lose 95% of its oil production.”

Reuters pointed out that Libya’s oil production has remained unexpectedly good in the weeks following the invasion of Tripoli’s outskirts by the National Army. OPEC data show that Libya’s output even increased by 71,000 barrels per day in April, reaching 1.76 million barrels per day. Against the backdrop of the ongoing stalemate in the civil war, this growth is impressive. In addition, Libya’s oil and gas revenue rose 22% in April from March to $1.87 billion, but these trends clearly do not calm market concerns about the country’s oil industry.

Libya’s oil production reached an all-time high of 1.6 million barrels per day, and the outbreak of civil war after the Arab Spring led to a sharp decline in production. It began to recover in August 2016. From a historical low of 260,000 barrels per day to 1.05 million barrels per day in February 2018, Libya’s oil production is currently about 1.3 million barrels per day.

It is worth mentioning that 40 companies, including France’s Daudal and Germany’s Siemens, have been listed on the GNA’s “watch list” for their commercial support for Haftar’s “barbaric aggression against the capital” and will receive a “review and evaluation” in the next three months to determine whether to issue operating permits before continuing their activities in Libya. The Guardian pointed out that foreign energy companies were restricted to commercial activities in Libya, which would further undermine the country’s oil production activities.

“The situation in Libya is deteriorating, and the impact of the conflict on the oil industry’s labor force is very great, seriously damaging Libya’s oil production capacity. I believe that unless there is an immediate ceasefire, even oil exports will be seriously affected next.” Mustafa Sanalla stressed that “in fact, Sidra airport and wharf, which were originally used by the oil industry, are now occupied by the National Army and may be used for military purposes.”

Worries about supply disruption intensified

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also expressed concern about the situation in Libya in its latest monthly report. The IEA pointed out that although mixed signals were released in April, the geopolitical situation and industry disruptions blurred supply prospects, with Libya, Iran and Venezuela bringing great uncertainty and oil markets still fearing supply disruptions, which will continue to push up international oil prices.

The industry generally believes that the disruption of Libya’s oil supply lies in the “day and night”. Oil Price Network wrote that the escalation of Libya’s civil strife would lead to a large-scale disruption of oil supply. Hamish Kinnear, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said: “The civil war has affected Libya’s surviving and vital institutions, the Libyan Central Bank and NOC.”

In late April, the Libyan Central Bank, under the guidance of GNA, imposed restrictions on foreign currency transfers by the Eastern Bank on the grounds of “fighting corruption”. The National Army led by Haftar relied heavily on the foreign exchange business of the Eastern Bank, and financial constraints would not guarantee the safety of the oilfields and facilities under its control.

What is more worrying is that although GNA is an internationally recognized official government of Libya, it does not have a considerable army. Its action to cut off Haftar’s “final financial path” is undoubtedly “fuelling the fire”. Once the National Army breaks through the defense line, the regime change in Libya will be in a flash, and then the NOC and even the entire oil industry will be in chaos.

Oil prices have rebounded impressively this year, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising by nearly 30%. However, most analysts are not optimistic about the long-term rise in oil prices. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report that “the forces that led to the fall in oil prices are accumulating momentum”. The tense geopolitical situation continues. The world economic growth is likely to be dragged down by the crude oil market. The crude oil market in 2019 will also face more uncertainties.

As of mid-May, the latest oil price rise was mainly due to geopolitical influence and supply disruption stimulus. The increasingly tense situation in the Middle East and the disruption of oil supplies in Venezuela, Iran and other countries show no signs of easing in the short term. These factors will provide upward momentum for oil prices in the coming quarters.

Alejandro Barbajosa, vice president of Argus Middle East and Asia-Pacific crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas, said there were no clear signs of a fall in crude oil prices. Although Venezuela, Iran, Russia and the Middle East have their own problems, the OPEC meeting two weeks ago decided to maintain a daily reduction of 1.2 million barrels of crude oil. Therefore, the price of crude oil should not fall significantly in the future. Moreover, the United States does not hold elections until 2019, and there is no great political pressure. At present, the demand for crude oil is still very strong. Alejandro Barbajosa predicts that oil prices will not fall below $70 a barrel and that there is a high probability of keeping the range between $70 and $80 a barrel running.

Anas Alhajji, a partner in Energy Outlook Consulting, believes that foreign exchange is one of the important factors affecting crude oil prices. At present, the price difference between different markets is in fact often a false impression caused by foreign exchange and time difference. In his speech, he pointed out that Dubai and Oman crude oil prices are denominated in US dollars, while INE is denominated in RMB. Although the three trends are highly correlated, there are still some differences on the whole, and if foreign exchange factors are taken into account, the difference between the three prices will be significantly reduced. If the time zone factor is taken into account, the difference between the three factors can be basically neglected.

With the world’s major economies generally in a weak position and the dollar remaining strong this year, Anas Alhajji believes that if the dollar continues to strengthen, oil demand will be depressed and production will increase, which will further drive down the price of crude oil. Because most of the costs of crude oil companies in the North Sea, Russia and China are paid in local currencies, but sales are priced in US dollars, the purchasing power of these crude oil producers has risen during the appreciation of US dollars, and additional revenue has stimulated oil producers to further increase their production.

With regard to the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has attracted much attention from the crude oil market, the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran are not zero. Data show that before the sanctions, Iran’s exports were between 1.1 million and 1.3 million barrels a day, and now only 800,000 barrels a day. However, the trade embargo will inevitably affect the flow of crude oil trade. Christopher Fix, managing director of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group and board member of Dubai Commodity Exchange, said that when a trade embargo or trade war broke out, Iran lost part of its original market, and crude oil production could not find enough outlets in a short time, producers would suffer a lot. And producers need to reorient their trade routes, which will also be accompanied by certain costs. “Oil-producing countries seek lower costs to enter other markets, resulting in imbalances in the trade market and distorting price spreads in the core market. This is the same reason that soybeans seem cheaper in Southeast Asia this year, but more expensive in North Asia, including China.

It is worth noting that China is becoming more and more important in the global crude oil market. Christopher Fix said that the influence of the East on crude oil prices is growing. Middle East crude oil prices are increasingly related to price signals in the Far East market, especially in China, South Korea and Japan. In fact, in the past 20 years, China has become an important driving force in the world crude oil market. According to Alejandro Barbajosa, China’s crude oil demand increased dramatically in 2006, strengthening the diversity of the world’s crude oil market. China’s crude oil import surpassed that of the United States as the largest importer, which will have a far-reaching impact on the world’s geopolitics. China’s energy consumption diversity has played a very good role in stabilizing the price of crude oil. At present, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for one third of the world’s oil consumption, with a specific figure of 34%. China is undoubtedly the largest consumer in the Asia-Pacific region, and the huge demand will inevitably bring its influence on world crude oil prices.

On May 28, the PX commodity index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Since the new plant was put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene supply was normal. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. In Asia, the start-up rate of PX plant is about 80%. On May 28, the market price of paraxylene in Asia increased by 8 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 869-871 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 888-890 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of paraxylene. The price trend of intra-market paraxylene is temporarily stable.

On May 28, the price of WTI crude oil in July rose to $59.14 per barrel, an increase of $0.51. The price of Brent crude oil in July was flat at $70.11 per barrel. The price trend of crude oil rose, which had a certain cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recently, the textile industry has stabilized temporarily, PTA price declined slightly on the 29th. The average price in East China was raised near 5600-5700 yuan/ton. As of the 28th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 83.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 86.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate maintained a high level. However, the PTA market price was slightly lower, and the PX market price is expected to be slightly lower in the later period.

On May 28, the rare earth index was 381 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 61.90% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 40.59% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 440,000 yuan per ton, dysprosium is 2325,000 yuan per ton and praseodymium is 69,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 325,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.975 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 355,000 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 330,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 440,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys is 1.975 million yuan/ton.

Recent price shocks in the rare earth market, the domestic rare earth market trading market is general, the price trend of most commodities in the rare earth market is temporarily stable, heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium varieties are affected by the restrictions on the import of Myanmar mines. Market participants are more optimistic about the price of medium and heavy rare earth. Holders are reluctant to sell, and the price of dysprosium and terbium system keeps high, but the market trend of neodymium series products is general, the supply in the market is normal, light. Rare earth prices have been slightly revised back in the near future. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of rare earth market is rising, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products. Recently, rare earth imports have declined, domestic enterprises are reluctant to sell, and some prices in the rare earth market remain high.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document to crack down on rare earth blacks. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw mineral resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the rare earth industry has been trading well.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not diminish, coupled with domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s restrictions on exports, reduced supply, which will provide some favorable support for the rare earth industry, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to be shaky operation.

Recently, I went to Xi’an with the delegation to investigate methanol production and downstream demand for methanol automobiles and clean fuels. From the survey situation, although methanol prices are low and coal prices are high, many manufacturers are close to the loss point, methanol is difficult to continue to fall, but due to lack of demand power, methanol rise still needs to wait for time to cooperate.

New Growth Point of Methanol Demand: Energy Demand

The new consumption of methanol mainly comes from energy demand, which is in great demand in Xi’an area we investigated. There are two main parts in this respect, methanol automobile and clean fuel.

As for methanol vehicles, on March 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and other eight departments jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on the Application of Methanol Vehicles in Some Areas, which put forward that the application of M100 methanol vehicles should be accelerated in areas with good resource endowment and operation experience of methanol vehicles, such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Guizhou and Gansu. Shaanxi is expected to invest a total of 20,000 methanol taxis. Now it has invested 7,000 methanol taxis in Xi’an. Now it needs about 100,000 tons of methanol per year, and 300,000 tons after completion. The plan has been running for five months, and three problems have emerged. One is that additives are easy to block the nozzle and cause faults; the other is that it is difficult to ignite by gasoline before converting to methanol; the third is that it is difficult to refuel. Due to government subsidies and other factors, it is impossible to enter CNPC and Sinopec gas stations. Only 20 gas stations in Yanchang Petrochemical Company in the city can add M100 methanol and taxis. There is a serious queue during shift time. But generally speaking, these problems are not insoluble, and they can basically accomplish their tasks in the later stage.

In the aspect of clean fuel, there is a gap in natural gas after coal to gas conversion. At the same time, because there is no pipeline natural gas in many remote areas, liquefied natural gas needs to be used, which has potential safety hazards. Methanol fuel has developed rapidly in recent years. The total annual demand in Xi’an is about 300,000 tons, and the demand in winter is even greater. The national estimate is more than 3 million tons.

Later Focus: When Demand Warms up

On the mainland side, we are concerned about when the demand for new olefin plants will start. Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, 1.8 million tons of coal to methanol has been put into production, but the corresponding 600,000 tons of MTO failed to produce the finished product smoothly due to plant problems, and a large number of takeout methanol hit the market. At the same time, there is news recently that the export of Tang Dynasty Toronto methanol has been reduced, and that the MTP plant has been restarted. Once these two sets of devices start up, the domestic supply-demand relationship will be greatly improved.

On the port side, we should pay attention to inventory changes. At present, the methanol inventory in coastal areas is 912,200 tons, and the total methanol negotiable supply in coastal areas is estimated to be around 265,600 tons. Although it has declined, it is still high compared with 450,000 tons in the same period last year. At the same time, considering that the import arrival volume increased to 470,000 tons (generally 300,000-350,000 tons) in the next two weeks, the port inventory is still under great pressure.

On the downstream side, we should pay attention to whether the price of chemical products has improved. Compared with methanol prices, the recent downstream polypropylene and ethylene glycol continued to decline due to the escalation of trade frictions. Especially ethylene glycol declined the most, and the downstream factories suffered serious losses. Zhejiang Xingxing and Changzhou Fude, two important benchmarking enterprises in East China, both have propylene and ethylene glycol. In this case, it is difficult for enterprises to support the upstream price increase.

Generally speaking, manufacturers generally reflect that downstream demand is generally relatively low except formaldehyde. Traders have a general willingness to receive goods, and the price will be suitable for some parts. Once the price rises, it will be difficult to ship goods. In the short term, prices will rise inexplicably, and producers will mainly digest inventories at low prices. It is possible to improve after the start of construction in Datang and Jiutai. Short-term advice is mainly wait-and-see. In the long run, the price is at the bottom of the range, which can be more light warehouse tests.

As one of the most profitable varieties in the polyester industry chain, PX has attracted much attention in the market. However, with the introduction of new PX production capacity in China, domestic self-sufficiency has improved significantly, and PX profits have officially gone downhill and downhill.

By May 16, 2019, the profit value of naphtha-based PX process line had officially broken through the cost level, reaching – 9.49 US dollars per ton. It had been one and a half years since the last negative profit occurred.

According to monitoring, the peak profit of PX in 2019 was US$305.36 per ton on February 16, and the profit margin of nuclear production of 1 ton of PX products was more than 2,000 RMB. By May 17, the profit value of PX fell to US$18.13 per ton and was in a loss state. From January to February 2019, PTA demand showed strong performance. The effect of domestic PX depot was obvious. The overall price trend was strong, and the profitability was enhanced. Most of the cash flow of the polyester industry chain was depressed in this link.

However, since March, although the overall trend of crude oil has been warmer and naphtha and PX effective cost support has been given, with the launch of Hengli Petrochemical’s two new production capacity of 4.5 million tons of PX (1

Domestic supply and demand patterns and participants’mentality are under significant pressure. PX price has opened a strong unilateral downward trend, and then profit margin has contracted significantly, rapidly falling below the cost level.

Asian PX Device Change Table for the 2nd Quarter

Influenced by the current negative profit situation, the market closely monitors the operation of PX devices in Asia. As shown in the table above, the changes of PX devices in Asia in the second quarter involve a total capacity of 8797,000 tons. Most of the changes are expected to be made at the beginning of the year, not only the accidental parking of Taiwan Chemical Fiber 3# device and Japan JX device, but also the S-oil maintenance in Korea. Interval extension and advance maintenance process in Yishan, Vietnam.

At the same time, concerning the reduction of production, only Qingdao Lidong 1 million tons/year PX plant is expected to reduce the load to 60%, but the specific reduction time has not yet been announced, while the reduction process of Hanhua Chemistry and Lotian Chemistry is still in the planning stage, and the later implementation needs to be tracked.

PX prices in Asia have fallen sharply since March. In addition to the unexpected deterioration of its supply and demand pattern, Hengli Petrochemical has exerted general pressure on market confidence.

Recently, with the outbreak of PX overhaul process in Asia, it is expected that PX price will have a short wave of consolidation. However, its influence may be far less than expected. The PX production line superimposed by Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has been built up. It is expected to reach production in the fourth quarter of this year, and new pressure from Brunei Hengyi Project and Hainan Phase 2 Project will continue to impact the market. Therefore, PX will remain empty in the medium and long term.

The Tariff and Tax Commission of the State Council decided to raise tariff rates on some imports originating in the United States from 10:00 on June 1, 2019. The tax rate shall be implemented in accordance with the Notice of the State Council Tariff and Tax Commission on the imposition of tariffs on some imported goods (the second batch) originating in the United States (the Notice of the Tax Commission [2018] No. 6).

Propylene, propane and other products were not found in the list. After consulting the relevant information, it was found that on August 3, 2018, China imposed tariffs on 5207 imports originating in the United States, involving about 60 billion US dollars in import trade.

Tariffs imposed on propylene and other products are included in the list of tariffs imposed since 12:01 on August 23, 2018, involving about 16 billion US dollars in import trade.

Judging from the current situation, it does not rule out the possibility that China will continue to impose tariffs on American imports. The follow-up commodities are likely to be the first to impose tariffs in 2018, involving about $50 billion in import trade. Among them, propylene, propane and other products are among them. However, for propylene, the direct impact is relatively limited.

From the source of China’s propylene imports in 2018, propylene from Korea accounted for 51% of the total imports, while propylene from Japan and Taiwan accounted for 20% and 19% respectively. The remaining propylene mainly came from Southeast Asia. Propylene imports from the United States are only 29.6 tons, almost negligible. Therefore, even if China imposes tariffs on propylene from the United States, the direct impact is negligible.

However, some upstream and downstream products of propylene may be affected by tariffs, such as propane, polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, acrylic acid and so on. Especially propane, the total import volume is large, and the proportion of imports from the United States is larger, the impact is also expected to be greater.

In recent years, propane dehydrogenation to propylene has developed rapidly in China, and the raw material propyl alkyl is basically dependent on imports. Once the tariff is imposed on propane, the cost of propane dehydrogenation will increase dramatically. At present, the profit margin of propane dehydrogenation is extremely limited. Once the cost rises, the loss will become an inevitable result. Therefore, the impact of tariffs on propylene-related products needs close attention.

Border trade import is an important part of China’s potash fertilizer trade. Recently, it has been reported that both shipping and import of potash fertilizer have entered a period of suspension of negotiations. The potash trade will enter a standby period in June. How much will this affect the price of potash fertilizer in China?

Potassium Fertilizer in Ural Suffered Permeability Accident

Recently, the world’s largest potash manufacturer Ural Potassium Fertilizer’s Solikamsk No. 2 mine has suffered a flooding accident, and the losses are still not assessable. “Ural Potassium Fertilizer Permeability Accident has a greater impact on the international price of potash fertilizer.” Industry insiders in an interview with reporters said that the flooding accident is fatal to the solid potash fertilizer mining area.

Data show that Ural Potassium Fertilizer Company is one of the world’s major potassium fertilizer producers, the company’s potassium fertilizer output accounts for about 20% of the global potassium fertilizer output. The No. 3 mine of Ural Potassium Fertilizer was closed permanently in 1973 because of the flooding accident, and the No. 1 mine was closed permanently in 2006, which also promoted the bull market of potash fertilizer after 2006 to a certain extent.

Industry insiders told reporters that every year China will sign large contracts with Russia, Canada and other potassium-rich countries to transport potassium chloride by sea, and it is the agreed price of the big contract that has the greatest impact on the domestic potassium fertilizer price. The flooding accident will certainly have an impact on next year’s big contract price, and the domestic potash fertilizer price will also be affected accordingly.

It is understood that the supply of potassium fertilizer in China mainly consists of import and domestic components. With the continuous improvement of domestic potassium production capacity, the proportion of imported potassium fertilizer has decreased from 70% to 45%, but imported potassium fertilizer is still an indispensable part of domestic potassium fertilizer supply.

However, professionals believe that the increase in potassium fertilizer prices is still difficult to predict. Specifically, domestic potassium fertilizer prices also depend on market turnover and industry demand.

Border Trade Potassium Fertilizer Import Stagnation

According to reliable sources, China’s border potash fertilizer trade has maintained and continued the spot trading mode of border trade due to the geographical relationship between China and Russia. Especially based on long-term cooperative relationship, the two sides will start the process in mid-May to negotiate the price and quantity of the next month. However, Ural Potassium Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has recently continued to raise its quotation for potash fertilizer in China’s border trade on the basis of May’s price, and is resolute in its attitude. On the contrary, the price trend of potash fertilizer ports in domestic frontier trade broke down more than 150 yuan in late April.

Industry insiders believe that, in view of Ural’s attitude towards reducing potassium fertilizer and maintaining its price, as well as the actual market demand and price of land-borne potassium fertilizer, it is expected that in the short term it will be difficult for both sides to reach a consensus, and that there will be a shortage of potassium fertilizer in border trade from mid-June. Border trade imports will also enter the period of suspension of negotiations historically. This is the first time in the history of importing potash fertilizer from border trade.

It is understood that border trade import is an important part of China’s potash fertilizer trade. It has been accepted by domestic users because of its short cycle and rapid price response. In fact, from some data, it also reflects its active degree in the potash fertilizer market. Since 2005, the import of potassium fertilizer in frontier trade, with Manzhouli as the main port, has gradually become an important supplement to the import of potassium fertilizer in large trade and another important force to guarantee domestic potassium fertilizer supply.

Sources say that the negotiations on the big trade contract, which started in September 2018 and expired in June 2019, have not accelerated due to the approaching, and substantive contacts have also been delayed. At the same time, the difference in expectations between the two sides has led to the suspension of negotiations after the delivery of some routes of goods. Throughout the market situation, domestic frontier trade stopped importing and the number of shipping basically ended. Negotiations on shipping are far away, foreign prices are demanding, and both imports of potash fertilizer have entered a suspension period.

How will the price of potash fertilizer go?

Because of the suspension of negotiations on both shipping and import of potash fertilizer, uncertain negotiation results have kept the price of potash fertilizer stable for the time being. In terms of domestic potassium fertilizer, the production plant of Qinghai Salt Lake Group operates normally, and the implementation price of 60% of the base product of salt lake is 2350 yuan/ton. Customer prices remained stable in all regions. At present, the inventory of powdery, granular and cold crystallization platforms is 28,000 tons, and that of warehouses is 317,000 tons. The total amount of packaged goods that can be sold and shipped is 345,000 tons. Tibetan potassium fertilizer 60% powder price of 2350 yuan/ton, enterprise inventory of about 110,000 tons. The local small factory rate is low, the transaction is relatively cold.

In terms of imported potassium, there are many ports in stock at present. The data show that the port stock of imported potassium is about 2.6 million tons. At present, port potassium imports have begun to fluctuate in a narrow range. Although the quotation of traders is stable, the transaction of new orders is relatively slow, and the real unit price has fallen slightly. The mainstream price of 62% white potassium in Northeast China is around 2350-2380 yuan/ton, and the transaction reference is around 2350 yuan/ton. Russian pink prices range from 2150 to 2200 yuan per ton. There are fewer new potassium fertilizer frontier trade goods in the near future, and the previous quotation is higher. At present, the reference price of 62% Russian-White ports is 2050-2080 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton lower than that of last month.

In terms of demand for potassium fertilizer, the demand for potassium fertilizer continues to decline after entering the summer market. At present, there is no news of any big contract, but the port potassium fertilizer inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. After the demand for potassium fertilizer enters the off-season, the raw material purchasing of compound fertilizer manufacturers is limited, and the supply and demand are often one-sided. Industry insiders said that the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of potash fertilizer has been significantly improved, and market prices are now temporarily stable.

First, the price data:

According to the business community’s large list of monitoring data, this week, the domestic bromine market stable operation, the industry as a whole started normal, the average price of bromine in the week remained at about 35000 yuan/ton, up 26.74% from the same period last year.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Products: This week, the domestic bromine market began to maintain a high, enterprise shipments smooth, downstream market in the peak season, the industry’s overall supply and demand two prosperous. In part of the start of enterprises, Rudong Yue Fine chemical Nissan about 5 tons, Shandong Sea Nissan 15 tons or so, Shandong Hai Wang chemical Nissan 20 tons or so, Tianjin haijing Nissan 15 tons or so.

At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises in 35000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price to the enterprise negotiations prevail. Industrial chain: This week, the bromine upstream industry is a decline: sulfur market fell 2.05% in the week, the current offer of 956 yuan/ton, caustic soda market in the week slightly soft 1.4%, the current price of 705 yuan/ton or so; Soda Market Week held steady operation, the current price of 1960 yuan/ton around The price of sulfuric acid fell sharply by 8.79% in the week, and is currently quoted at around 207 yuan/ton.

At present, the bromine downstream flame retardant industry is in high season, the demand is better, the bromine price support is good, pharmaceutical agricultural intermediates and other industries performance is stable, buying just need.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society bromine industry analysts believe that the current domestic bromine market enterprises generally normal production, shipping smooth, downstream user demand is stable, the market presents a situation of two prosperity of supply and demand, is currently in abundance of bromine supply, but bromine prices are still high, it is expected that the future period of bromine prices will be stable operation, long-term view will have some downward space.

In recent days, U Khaing Myint, secretary of the Burmese Association of Rubber Growers and producers (MRPPA), said the country’s rubber production had grown rapidly this year, with exports expected to reach 300,000 tonnes, surpassing the government’s previous estimate of 260,000 tonnes. Mr Myint said the area of rubber plantations in Myanmar had been steadily increasing and would reach the maximum output in the coming years. Some 800,000 acres of land are currently active in the production of glue in Myanmar, which led to a 56% increase in rubber exports in 2017.

However, only 8% of locally produced rubber is used for domestic consumption, while the remaining rubber is used for export, of which 70% is exported to China.

Currently, Thailand remains the world’s largest producer of rubber, with an annual output of about 4.6 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia (annual output of 2.4 million tons) and Malaysia (annual output of 2.2 million tons). Myint said that international rubber demand is now rising, the government wants to promote Myanmar as a major exporter of rubber, its export strategy is to actively promote the export of rubber and rubber products, thereby boosting total exports and narrowing the trade deficit. The country is planning to establish a central market for trade in rubber at the seaport Centre in Mawlamyiang, southern.