China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. The United States is the world’s largest exporter of agricultural products. In the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, agriculture has always been a core issue.

Recently, Han Jun, deputy director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said in an exclusive interview with CCTV reporters that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, we resolutely safeguard the core interests of the country and rationally handle the current Sino-US economic and trade issues. The necessary countermeasures not taken are rational and restrained. China will actively, steadily and orderly expand the opening up of agriculture.

The counter-measures adopted by China have been limited in their domestic influence through careful evaluation.

So far, China has published two batches of tariff lists for imported goods from the United States. In the first batch of lists, the Chinese side issued an announcement to impose a 25% tariff on US$50 billion of goods, involving a total of 517 agricultural products. In the second batch of lists, the Chinese side decided to impose tariffs on the approximately 60 billion US dollars of products imported from the United States according to the law at 25%, 20%, 10%, and 5%, involving 387 agricultural products. At present, nearly 90% of the agricultural products imported from the United States have been taxed.

Han Jun said that China has to make such counter-measures, and it has also been made on the basis of extensive solicitation of opinions and careful evaluation. China imposes tariffs on US agricultural products exported to China, which will have a great impact on the export of US agricultural products, but has limited domestic impact. “We are constantly assessing the effectiveness of these tax increases, especially for the domestic market, and we must ensure that the impact on domestic industries and people’s lives is minimized.”

The advantage of US soybean exports to China has been lost

Influenced by the escalation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions, the impact of US agriculture can be foreseen. In the case of soybeans, US soybeans imported from China account for 60% of US soybean exports and more than six times that of the United States. China has adopted counter-measures and imposed a 25% tariff. The advantage of US soybean exports to China has been lost.

Han Jun pointed out that in the international market, agricultural products export is very competitive. If the US exports to China’s agricultural products are blocked, other countries have the willingness to replace the US market share. Now that the United States has provoked trade conflicts and continues to increase its weight, China is unwilling to fight trade wars. However, in the face of the continuous escalation of trade conflicts in the United States, it has to make necessary counter-measures.

China has adopted counter-measures against the United States, and imports from the United States will drop sharply. In order to prevent the linkage effect and increase the pressure on domestic food prices, the relevant departments have made thorough preparations. “For example, China can expand imports of soybeans from other countries such as Brazil, such as rapeseed meal, which can completely replace soybean meal. We have confidence and ability to ensure supply in the domestic market. We have this confidence.”

China will continue to expand agricultural opening up

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has become the world’s largest importer of agricultural products, and agricultural imports account for 1/10 of the global agricultural trade. At present, China, such as soybeans, sugar, cotton and other agricultural products, are the world’s largest buyers. The development of agricultural products trade has effectively alleviated the pressure on domestic agricultural resources and the environment, ensuring the smooth operation of domestic supply and market.

“China’s agricultural opening up is also comprehensive. The export of agricultural products should be exported. We must give play to our comparative advantages and increase the income of farmers. We must actively participate in this import to meet the people’s growing demand for quality food and quality agricultural products. Demand.” Han Jun said that it will continue to expand its openness and actively increase imports. This is China’s established policy.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2%, and the chemical industry rose 1.72%, weaker than the market. The sub-industries have risen and fallen, and the sub-sectors such as phosphate fertilizer, vinylon and compound fertilizer have shown an increase. Other fibers, polyester and viscose, which had a large increase last week, have seen a correction.

In the wake of futures surges and the depreciation of the renminbi, the cost of imported goods increased, the inventory in the port and the mainland was low, and the downstream maintenance olefin plant plan was restarted, the price rose sharply, with an increase of 200-270 yuan/ton.

The price of acetic acid continued to rise slightly, and the price increase in each region was around RMB 50/ton.

The domestic mainstream propylene market price continued to rise sharply, and the new high in the year, the price of each region rose to more than 9,000 yuan.

The domestic urea market began to rebound after bottoming out. The potash market continued to rise slightly in the firm. The phosphate fertilizer market is running smoothly.

The glyphosate market is sideways. The supplier quoted 2.7-2.95 million yuan / ton, the market turnover to 2.7-2.75 million yuan / ton

The domestic pure MDI market dropped at a high level. The aggregated MDI is falling back, the downstream is subject to environmental protection, the overall starting load is not high, the demand for raw materials is general, and the high price is resisting emotion.

Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that CNPC may suspend the purchase of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) stocks during the winter heating season. According to the plan, CNPC will increase the amount of spot purchases in other countries.

According to the Natural Gas Market Report 2018, the total amount of LNG imported by China in the first half of 2018 was 23.663 million tons, an increase of 51.3% over the same period of 2017. The growth rate is staggering. Most of the imports came from Australia, reaching 10.133 million tons, followed by Qatar. According to Anxun statistics, in the first half of 2018, China imported a total of 70 LNG stocks, 21 of which were from Australia.

Currently, CNPC is in deep consultation with Qatar and plans to purchase LNG through short-term and long-term agreements. Traders also said that Chinese buyers are already looking for alternatives to LNG supply due to Sino-US trade wars.

In addition, the Sino-Russian energy cooperation project, the Yamal LNG project, will build three LNG production lines with an annual output of 5.5 million tons. After completion, it will produce LNG 16.5 million tons per year. According to the signed long-term purchase and sale agreement, PetroChina will import 3 million tons of LNG from the Yamal project every year from 2019. On July 19, the first ship, Yamal LNG, arrived at the Jiangsu Rudong LNG receiving station and successfully delivered it to CNPC.

At the press conference of China’s first ship Yamal LNG, the National Energy Administration Director Bai Keli said that Russia will become the first importer of natural gas in China. Whether it is pipeline gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG), Russian natural gas will become more and more important in China’s natural gas supply chain.

The United States is a major exporter of LNG. Since 2016, 60% of US LNG has been sold in the spot market. In 2017, China’s imports accounted for 15% of US LNG exports.

In July of this year, the United States exported liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China to a minimum. Shipping data shows that US LNG sales to China fell from nearly 400,000 tons in May to only 130,000 tons in July, while supply from Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia and Papua New Guinea increased.

Since the beginning of July, the domestic pure benzene market started the first round of the second half of the market, and set the biggest increase this year. Last week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised by 200 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 6,850 yuan, a month-on-month increase of more than 14%. Recently, the price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6950 to 7000 yuan, and the price of hydrogenated benzene was 6800 to 6850 yuan. The high-end price in some regions even exceeded 7,000 yuan.

According to China Chemical Industry News reported on August 9, Shao Huiwen, marketing manager of Henan Kaipu Group, said that the pure benzene downstream market performed well in July, and more than 90% of downstream enterprises were in a profitable state. Among them, the profit of styrene, cyclohexanone, caprolactam and other products reached 2,500 to 3,500 yuan, and the profit per ton of enterprises reached nearly 4,000 yuan.

According to Sinopec and PetroChina, from August to September, Anhui 260,000 tons/year new styrene plant was put into operation, Shandong Jinling 200,000 tons/year aniline plant was restarted, and the demand for pure benzene will also increase. .

Statistics from Henan Petroleum and Chemical Network show that since July, the inventory of pure benzene ports has continued to decline. As of August 3, the inventory of major domestic ports has dropped from 240,000 tons to 200,000 tons, a drop of 20%, and there is room for further decline.

In addition to port inventory, domestic production enterprises’ inventory has also fallen to a low level. At the same time, the rise in external disk prices has affected the subsequent import of goods to Hong Kong, supporting the domestic market to continue to improve, and boosting the seller’s mentality. It is understood that on August 3, the pure benzene FOB Korea closed up to 876 US dollars, equivalent to more than 7,000 yuan.

In addition, the reporter of China Chemical Industry News learned from Shandong refinery enterprises that due to the increase in crude oil prices and the subsidy of consumption tax, local refineries have experienced large-scale production and production restrictions, and individual scale refining enterprises have even filed for bankruptcy.

According to industry insiders, on the basis of the increase in demand, the domestic supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and traders have actively joined the speculation team. This round of market is in the key node of the rising channel. If the short-term external market continues to be high, the domestic market still has room for growth. The price in the second half of the year does not rule out the possibility of creating a new high for the year.

According to the ICIS-MRC price report, European producers lowered the price of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) shipped to the CIS market in August, although the contract price of raw ethylene has doubled.

In the context of stable ethylene prices, most European producers announced that high-density polyethylene (HDPE) prices will rise in August compared to July, but LDPE prices have fallen.

The new round of US tax collection list covers almost rare earth and related products.

Since 2018, the Sino-US trade war has continued to heat up. Following the June 15th, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced a list of 1,102 sanctions worth $50 billion, and on July 6, began to impose a 25% import tariff on the first batch of Chinese products worth $34 billion. Later, on July 10, local time, the US Trade Representative Office announced a new round of taxation list, which plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth 200 billion US dollars. The sanctions are expected to officially land on August 30.

In the newly published catalogue of the 3290-F8 document tax list, almost all rare earth oxides, compounds, metals and rare earth permanent magnets, as well as rare earth application end products are covered.

Over the years, the United States has developed a high degree of dependence on Chinese rare earths.

American rare earth consumption is highly dependent on China. According to USGS statistics, in 2017, 78% of the total imports of rare earth products from the United States came from China, and the remaining 22% came from Estonia (6%), Japan (4%), France (4%) and others (8%). ), but the primary raw materials for rare earth products imported from Japan, France and other places are also from China.

According to China Customs data, in 2017, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to 14,300 tons, accounting for 27.7% of China’s total exports of rare earth smelting and separating products. Among them, 238.5 tons of rare earth metals are exported to the United States, accounting for 4.3% of China’s total exports of rare earth metals, accounting for 46% of the total imports of rare earth metals in the United States. Imported varieties are mainly based on strontium; 8809 tons of rare earth oxides are exported to the United States, accounting for China. 29.6% of the total exports of rare earth oxides accounted for 90% of the total imports of rare earth oxides in the United States, and the imported varieties were mainly cerium oxide; 5,988 tons of rare earth compounds were exported to the United States, accounting for 31.8% of the total exports of rare earth compounds in China. The variety is mainly strontium carbonate. In 2017, the United States imported a total of 10,200 tons of antimony, antimony oxide and barium carbonate from China, accounting for 71.5% of the total imports of its smelting and separating products. In terms of the amount, in 2017, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States amounted to US$68.372 million, accounting for 16.4% of the total export value of rare earth smelting and separating products in China. In addition, in 2017, China exported 3,358.85 tons of rare earth permanent magnet materials to the United States, accounting for 11.2% of China’s total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials; the export value was nearly 150 million US dollars, accounting for 10.2% of China’s total exports of rare earth permanent magnet materials.

According to China’s export data on rare earth products in the United States in 2017, the United States has high dependence on rare earth products in China: unmixed rare earth carbonate, barium carbonate, barium carbonate, other compounds of barium, other compounds of barium, unmixed chlorine Rare earth, cerium oxide and cerium oxide.

From the perspective of the rare earth consumption structure in the United States, the catalysts mainly used for automobile exhaust gas purification and petroleum catalytic cracking are the largest downstream applications of rare earths, accounting for 55% of the total consumption of rare earths, and the rare earth elements used in the catalyst are mainly Light rare earth elements such as strontium and barium, which are also consistent with its imported varieties from China.

Sino-US trade war has both advantages and disadvantages for the rare earth industry

Overall, China’s exports of rare earth smelting and separating products to the United States account for less than 30% of China’s total exports of rare earth smelting and separation products, and the export value is less than 20%, but for the United States, if traced back to the source, its rare earth Imports are almost entirely from China. According to the report of the “Fragile US Defense Industry Foundation” issued by the US Department of Defense, the United States has an “amazing” dependence on China’s key materials. China is the only source of imports of rare earths and energetic materials in the United States. Therefore, the United States imposes a 10% tariff on China’s rare earth export products, which has little impact on China’s rare earth industry. However, it will increase the cost of raw materials in the US manufacturing industry, and it will not protect its manufacturing industry. It is contrary to its original intention of adding tariffs.

Due to the dependence of the United States on the formation of rare earth products in China over the years, it is difficult to find a corresponding number of substitutes in China or outside China in the short term. Even if the current Mountain Pass mine has been trial-produced, if it wants to restore the rare earth smelting and separating industry chain, It is not a good day’s work, and the supply of rare earth producers outside China is also difficult to provide the corresponding amount of rare earth products.

According to the “Nikkei Business News” reported on August 6, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released a report that the global production of plastic waste continues to increase, more than 300 million tons per year into the environment, causing negative impacts on tourism and fisheries. The various losses amounted to approximately $13 billion per year.

A portion of plastic waste can be incinerated and recycled, but discarded and landfilled plastic waste continues to increase in the environment and is projected to reach approximately 12 billion tons by 2050.

According to the report, the global production of plastic waste reached 302 million tons in 2015 with the latest data, which is 6 times compared with about 50 million tons in 1980.

On the other hand, the recycling rate is currently only about 15% of the total. The EU’s recycling rate is close to 30%, but Japan is only 20%.

Recently, the Ministry of Natural Resources released a message saying: Since last year, China’s oil and gas exploration and mining has made a number of new breakthroughs, especially the large increase in reserves and production of clean energy, and the accelerated commercialization of large-scale commercialization of shale gas, effectively safeguarding the country. Energy security has injected new momentum into economic development.

It is worth mentioning that the basins such as Erdos and Junggar have opened up new areas of oil reserves growth. Among them, two more than 100 million tons of oil fields in Huaqing and Jiyuan have been added to the Ordos Basin, and a new scale of 100 million tons of reserves has been discovered in the Junggar Basin.

At the same time, the quality of China’s oil and gas exploration and mining is also significantly improved. The Qaidam Basin is a representative.

It is understood that this year, Qinghai Oilfield has focused on a new exploration situation, focusing on work tasks, highlighting one goal, and optimizing five major oil and gas exploration battlefields. The heroic ridge and the front block of the Altun Mountains are currently the best in the Qaidam Basin, with the best exploration momentum, the fastest growth rate of reserves, and the best exploration benefit. They have already possessed the basic conditions for concentrated exploration. Therefore, Qinghai Oilfield determined that the main exploration of oil exploration is Hero Hill. According to the principle of “deepening the West, Yingzhong, Yingdong, exploring the dry water springs and preparing the oil springs”, 400 square kilometers of 3D earthquakes and 11 pre-exploration wells were deployed. Before the main exploration of natural gas in the Altun Mountains, according to the idea of ​​“mainly attacking the north, breaking through the cattle, deepening the cold north, preparing the crescent mountain”, the two-dimensional earthquake was deployed 300 kilometers and 9 exploration wells.

In addition, this year China has also achieved fruitful results in the field of shale gas exploration and exploitation. The reporter learned that on March 26, the Chongqing Fuling shale gas field was built with an annual production capacity of 10 billion cubic meters, becoming the largest shale gas field in the world except North America, equivalent to building a large oil field of 10 million tons. It indicates that China’s shale gas is accelerating into the stage of large-scale commercial development, which is of great significance to alleviating the supply pressure of the natural gas market in the central and eastern regions of China.

In the future, the prospects for shale gas exploration and exploitation in China are very bright. According to information released by the Ministry of Natural Resources recently, the accumulated proven geological reserves of shale gas in China have exceeded 1 trillion cubic meters. According to a report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China’s total shale gas reserves are as high as 31.6 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world.

The US Wall Street Journal website published an article on July 24th entitled “Treaty of Tariffs Threats China’s Aspirations for American Oil,” saying that for the US oil industry, the escalating Sino-US trade war may mean that US oil will lose. The opportunity to break into a strategic market.

The article said that China has been the largest new buyer of shale oil in the United States. Today, China is the second largest consumer of US oil exports after Canada. China’s oil demand has soared in the past two years, and the country bought one-fifth of the US’s crude oil exports last year. This rapidly growing demand has made US oil exporters vulnerable to trade wars between the world’s two largest economies.

The article quoted Soresh Sivanandan of Wood Mackenzie Consulting in the United Kingdom as saying: “From the perspective of the United States, China is an important market, but (US oil shipments to China) only account for China’s oil imports. About 3%. So at this point, the US will lose more than China.”

The article said that two years ago, China’s economic slowdown and its pursuit of renewable energy made people further worried that China’s oil demand is reaching its peak. But the growing popularity of sport utility vehicles and air travel shows that China’s oil demand is still large. In recent years, China’s crude oil imports have not only declined, but have grown substantially, reaching a record 298 million barrels in January. At the beginning of last year, China overtook the United States to become the world’s largest oil importer. Today, 70% of China’s oil demand is imported, and according to the International Energy Agency, this number will climb to 80% by 2040.

The article believes that if China imposes tariffs on US oil, then US oil exporters may lose their long-term big buyers in China and turn to other countries to find smaller, more dispersed buyers.

According to the article, analysts believe that China’s oil demand (currently) is unlikely to peak, and it may continue to grow for at least several decades. Most importantly, this trade war is bound to highlight another reality: traditional energy once again dominates, but its center is turning to the East.