LONDON (MarketWatch) – London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures were steady Friday, helped by the dollar’s decline, but this week’s weekly decline was the biggest in March, as speculative buying pushed prices up to three After the high year, investors profit-taking.

Dutch bank analyst Casper Burgering said that despite the profitability of some investors, but the supply shortage and the largest metal consumer – China’s demand is stable, is expected to keep the price near the current level.

London time on September 15 17:00 (Beijing time on September 16 00:00), three-month copper closed up 0.1 percent at $ 6,508 per ton, down 2.8 percent this week. Copper fell from a three-year high of $ 6,970 hit on Sept. 5, but still up 18% so far this year.

Copper support at $ 6,300-6,400 between the 50-day moving average cut into place and 2015 high.

LME copper stocks this week increased by 67,600 tons, to 27.6025 million tons, an increase of May to the largest, to bring pressure on copper prices.

Increasing inventory support Copper is the highest in December 2009 compared to LME’s three-month copper premium, which rose to more than $ 40 per tonne in December 2009, indicating that there will be more copper deliveries in the coming days.

Spot aluminum, nickel and lead more than three months of futures premium also rose to high years.

But the spot zinc than three months of zinc lift, for the first time since February, by the closure of the Chinese mine after the immediate supply worries to promote.

Burgering, of ABN AMRO, said China’s rare announcement of a series of disappointing data shows that the economy has finally begun to lose some momentum, but China’s demand for metals will remain strong.

China’s August non-ferrous metal production fell to a year low.

The stock market and the dollar fell slightly, after South Korea launched a second missile over Japan. Weak dollar makes dollar-denominated metal prices lower for non-US investments.

Three-month nickel fell 0.9 percent to $ 11,090 a barrel, the lowest for August 21, and nickel prices have fallen more than 10 percent since the September 14 highs hit $ 12,380.

Three-month aluminum closed down 0.6 percent at $ 2,085 a tonne.

Three-month zinc closed up 0.87% at $ 3,031 per tonne.

Three-month lead ended up 2.3% at $ 2,359 a tonne. Lead price by the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decline support. Lead stocks in the previous period were down 44.5% from last Friday to 16,568 tonnes.

Three months of tin steady, reported $ 20,540 per ton.

September 15, the US styrene market FOB US Gulf fell 0.8 cents to 58.7-59.2 cents / lb, equivalent to 1291.4-1302.4 US dollars / ton.

September 15, the European styrene market FOB fell 7 US dollars / ton, ARA reported 1353-1354 US dollars / ton.

September 15, the Asian styrene market closed both rose 18 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea received 1297-1298 US dollars / ton, CFR China received 1324-1325 US dollars / ton.

September 18, 2017 LME cobalt offer 61,000 US dollars / ton, unchanged from the previous day.

September 17 cobalt commodity index was 154.74, compared with the highest point of 155.76 points (2017-09-04) fell 0.65%, compared with 2016 July 05 the lowest point 69.84 points up 121.56%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

September 18, 2017 MB cobalt offer:

Cobalt (Co: ≥99.8%): 29.7 US dollars / lb, up 0.68%;

Cobalt (Co: ≥99.3%): 29.3 US dollars / lb, up 0.69%;

September 17 cobalt commodity index was 154.74, compared with the highest point of 155.76 points (2017-09-04) fell 0.65%, compared with 2016 July 05 the lowest point 69.84 points up 121.56%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far)

MB quotes are quoted by the independent quotation body of the British Metal Guide (MetalBulletin referred to as MB) on the basis of quotation traders and suppliers. Weekly MB will be reported twice the price. This pricing mechanism is not transparent, easy to lead to market manipulation. Although this pricing mechanism has been criticized, LME also tried to replace the MB cobalt pricing mechanism through cobalt futures, but the actual effect is not obvious.

Reuters Friday (September 15) wrote that US crude oil long-term contract price in 2018 has risen back above $ 50 a barrel, enough to keep drilling in the next two months stable.

If the current price rally continues, the shale oil business will almost certainly start it as a booster signal to start expanding the drilling program again.

Facts have proved that shale oil drilling is very sensitive to changes in US crude oil prices, especially long-term prices, shale oil companies rely on long-term prices to hedge production and reduce risk.

From February 2016 to January 2017, long-term price increases gradually encouraged shale oil producers to hire additional rigs to increase production.

It is usually 16-20 weeks to respond to changes in oil prices, and production will take 5-6 weeks to react.

By January 2017, the number of active rigs increased rapidly, suggesting that production would increase significantly, possibly leading to excess market.

According to the US Energy Information Association (EIA) forecast, crude oil and condensate production increased by more than 50 million barrels per day in 2017, with an estimated increase of nearly 100 million barrels per day in 2018.

According to Baker Hughes, an oilfield services company, the number of rigs in July has been flattened and has been declining since August.

Many shale oil companies announced in August for investors in the second quarter results conference call announced cuts in capital spending and drilling plans in the second half of 2017.

It is widely believed that shale oil companies are bracing to ease concerns about over-production and falling prices.

But since the end of June since the beginning of July calendar date once again rise, indicating that we are worried about over-production is fading.

On average, the guaranteed price for the US shale oil industry appears to be around $ 50, and the price has been confirmed as a watershed in the expansion and contraction of industry activity.

The calendar has recently climbed to the top of the threshold, the current report of 51 US dollars, the highest in May to the highest.

If the forward price can be maintained at the current level, the number of US active rigs will be steady, supporting the US next year, shiny oil production growth.

Potassium chloride market conditions are stable, potassium sulfate market prices.

Potassium chloride market stability. It is reported that border trade in September to restore imports, mainly 62% of white crystal and a small amount of white powder, the amount of imports is unknown. Due to poor market, importers enthusiasm is not high, no clear offer. Qinghai domestic potassium chloride prices temporarily stable, the trend is uncertain. It is reported that the recent preparation of small factories may be delayed. Salt Lake Group agents optimistic about the potential of potassium chloride, Salt Lake Group is still the implementation of the current orders, the continuation of the new price in September the possibility of maintaining stability.

Potassium sulfate prices rise. Qinghai water and salt system powder potassium sulfate mainstream to the station price of 2450 yuan (t price, the same below) or so, less supply, good sales. Shandong environmental protection by the impact of supervision, Mannheim potassium sulfate operating rate of only about three percent, originally planned for the recent resumption of production enterprises temporarily unable to determine the resumption of production time, is expected to begin production in September. Shandong 50% powdered potassium sulfate mainstream factory price rose to 2600 yuan, particles and 52% of the total water powder 2700 ~ 2750 yuan. Northwest region, less demand for potassium sulfate, product-oriented, taking into account the freight factors, potassium sulfate offer temporary stability, 52% of the whole water-soluble powder factory price is still 2500 ~ 2550 yuan, the overall sales better. Sichuan and Chongqing area Mannheim method of potassium sulfate driving much, almost all of the car manufacturers price adjustment, cargo tightly lead to 52% of the whole water soluble powder factory price rose to 2700 yuan or more, it is learned that there may be raised in the near future.

Potassium released in the second quarter of 2017 North American potash producers potash production, potash exports, North American potash fertilizer sales and potash stock data. North American potash production in the second quarter increased by 20% over the same period last year, compared with the same period last year increased by 36%; North America potash sales, the second quarter than the same period Quarterly decline of 8%, down 19% over the same period last year; North American potash stocks in the second quarter of 583,000 tons, an increase over the previous 5-year average of 22%.

IHS Chemical latest analysis report said that in 2016 the global demand for construction chemicals market reached 11 million tons, the market value of up to 34 billion US dollars. Of which the Chinese market accounted for the highest, 34%; followed by Western Europe, 21%; again in North America, 15%. The report predicts that from 2016 to 2021, the global demand for construction chemicals will grow at an average annual rate of 4.3%. By 2021, global demand for construction chemicals will reach 13.6 million tonnes. IHS Chemical said that from 2006 to 2016, China’s construction industry investment growth, the average annual growth rate of 11%; 2016 ~ 2021, China’s construction industry investment growth will slow to an average of 4% to 5%.

Demand for global construction chemicals will grow rapidly

Building chemicals include: concrete admixtures, asphalt additives, adhesives and sealants, special coatings and thermal insulation materials, mainly used to improve the performance of building materials or construction reliability. The main trends affecting construction chemicals include: globalization; increased population and improved living standards corresponding to increased demand for construction, especially in developing economies; further integration of the industry, especially in developed regions such as North America and Western Europe; increased demand for cement additives, To meet the ever-increasing structural performance challenges.

The need to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is driving the development of the construction industry. According to the International Federation of Chemical Industry Associations (ICCA) data show that the energy consumption in the construction sector accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s energy consumption. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) statistics show that greenhouse gas emissions in the construction sector account for one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and about 1 ton of carbon dioxide is produced into the atmosphere per ton of 1 ton of cement. According to the forecast, by 2050, the construction industry’s energy use will increase by more than 62%, carbon dioxide emissions will increase by more than 87%.

IHS Chemical said that in recent years, the construction industry, the rapid growth of chemical use, even in North America, Western Europe and Japan and other developed regions and countries as well. Concrete admixtures are increasingly used to produce super concrete to meet the needs of higher buildings. According to the latest statistics, in the construction chemicals market, the largest share of concrete admixtures, 37%, 2016 market value of 12.5 billion US dollars; followed by adhesives and sealants, the market value of 10.1 billion US dollars, the market share of 30%.

IHS Chemical said that the demand for concrete admixtures has increased significantly over the past few decades, with total demand in the global market reaching 16.6 million tonnes in 2016 and the demand for emerging economies is growing rapidly. The world’s major producers of concrete admixtures, including BASF and Sika, have increased production in Thailand and other production bases, and recently have increased capacity in Kenya, Russia and Vietnam. “Russia is a very attractive market and it is expected that the growth rate of the Russian construction industry will exceed the global average growth rate in the next few years,” said Tilman, head of BASF’s construction chemicals business.

The importance of concrete admixtures can be fully demonstrated from the construction of the San Gothen Basilica tunnel connecting Zurich and Milan through the Swiss Alps. The tunnel uses about 4 million tons of concrete, and pouring or spraying of concrete during construction is often difficult, which is challenging for companies that offer construction concrete admixtures for BASF and Sika.

BASF Germany, Austria and Switzerland underground construction business leader Boli Geer said that underground construction of the concrete requirements are high, when entering the mountain transport, the concrete must be kept for several hours can not be cured; but when the need to spray concrete to the tunnel wall , And must be fixed immediately. This is the biggest challenge in the construction of the Gotthard Baseline Tunnel.

September 14, the European styrene market FOB up 54 US dollars / ton, ARA reported 1360-1361 US dollars / ton.